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3rd & 4th Round Rookie RB's (1 Viewer)

dmac37

dmac37

Footballguy
It looks like there should be a lot of options with some of the 3rd and 4th round RB's going to good spots.

I was out all day and trying to get caught up, how do you rank the 3rd and 4th round RB's?

Here is the draft order:

Kamara- NO

Hunt- KC

Foreman- Hou

Conner- Pitt

Perine- Wash

Cohen- Chi

J. Williams- SF

Phumphrey- Phil

J Williams- GB

Gallman- NYG

Mack- Ind

 
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Sorry can't rank them honestly, it's not the time of year to pull back the curtain.

But what is interesting this year is the upper echelon RB's by and large ended in less than exciting spots and the 4th round RB's kind of crushed the landing spots.  Main end result is a much stronger late first into late second in my opinion.

 
dmac37 said:
It looks like there should be a lot of options with some of the 3rd and 4th round RB's going to good spots.

I was out all day and trying to get caught up, how do you rank the 3rd and 4th round RB's?

Here is the draft order:

Kamara- NO - many considered him a first round talent. Could produce right away in a receiving back role and then emerge as the starter over time.  

Hunt- KC - a guy who can run and catch had rb1 upside in KC, but he needs to beat out ware for the job to have value. High risk, high reward. 

Foreman- Hou - coaches just don't believe Lamar miller can handle a heavy workload.  Not a huge fan of foreman's talent, but he's big and fast and will get more playing time than miller owners want to believe.  

Conner- Pitt - the backup to bell seems to get some opportunities every year

Perine- Wash - looks like the immediate rb1 in Washington.  He's strong like bull but slow.  Wouldn't surprise me to see him put up 1000 yards rushing as a rookie. Good landing spot for a guy who needed a good landing spot to be anything more than a goal line type. 

Cohen- Chi - hard to believe he had any value here. 

J. Williams- SF - he would have gone a lot earlier based on talent and production but he literally quit football at one point and then decided he wanted to play again.  On the one hand I like the talent and Shanahan could make him the Freeman to Hyde's Coleman.  On the other, I don't like guys who don't love football. 

Phumphrey- Phil - Waterbug. Very productive but too small. Hard to picture him holding up to a heavy workload but he should have a role. 

J Williams- GB - you're basically drafting him because you can't believe they'd go into this season with Montgomery and Christine Michael as their starters

Gallman- NYG - every scouting report says the same thing - runs well, can't pass block.  Eli calls everything at the line of scrimmage.  Expect him to get the occasional carry but it would take multiple injuries for him to be fantasy relevant. 

Mack- Ind - indy is going to kero riding Gore as long as they can but they know they need a guy behind him and Turbin isn't much.  There were a lot of people high on this kid going into the draft and he looks solid but I don't think they drafted him to start right away and I don't they're committed to him long term so don't go crazy overpaying. Another high risk high reward pick. 

I can see reasonable people preferring a low risk low reward guy like perine to the higher risk picks who might never be fantasy relevant, or vice versa. It really depends on things like your team and league size and lineup requirements. So i can't really put then in order, but this is how I see each of them
Click to expand...

 
Great input Bostonfred.  Instead of a total ranking maybe I should have asked to point out which RB's out of this group really move the needle and will rank the highest in rookie drafts.

 
Right now, I'd go

Kamara

Foreman

Perine

Mack

Hunt

Joe Williams

Gallman

Conner, Cohen, Jamaal Williams and Pumphrey don't interest me yet.

 
Nero said:
Right now, I'd go

Kamara

Foreman

Perine

Mack

Hunt

Joe Williams

Gallman

Conner, Cohen, Jamaal Williams and Pumphrey don't interest me yet.
Click to expand...
I'd have Hunt ahead of Mack. Just a better player, in a more run oriented offense in my opinion.

I'd have Perine at the top of the list. Rob Kelley is just a guy, and Perine does all the same things, but better. 

 
Joe Williams is "meh" and unreliable.  I would instead look to Aaron Jones in that Packer backfield.  If you like the whole SPARQ thing, this guy was the 2nd-best in that metric.  I watched him absolutely torch the Longhorn defense.  Not that they had an all-world defense, but this guy was just carving up top-level competition with hardly anyone of note around him.  

Might be my #1 sleeper in this class, not just RB.

Packers selected UTEP RB Aaron Jones with the No. 182 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft.

Jones (5’10/208) turned pro as a redshirt junior after breaking UTEP’s all-time rushing record (4,114) in only three seasons, finishing his career with 40 all-purpose touchdowns, a 6.25 yards-per-carry average, and 71 receptions. Jones’ stock elevated at the Combine, posting top-two SPARQ results among running backs with a 4.56 forty, springy vertical (37 ½") and broad (10’7") jumps, and an impressive 6.82 three-cone time. On tape, Jones is a determined inside runner with plus vision, darting quickness, and serious big-play ability. In 2016, Jones led the nation in touchdown runs that began outside the red zone (12), including nine TD runs of 40-plus yards. While probably not an NFL workhorse, Jones is one of this year’s top sleeper running backs. 
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http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/cfb/134920/aaron-jones

 
Rankings are still fluid, especially in the first tier, but here's how I roughly see those guys:

Samaje Perine - Always liked him, while at the same time recognizing his limitations. Bit sluggish and may only be a two down guy. Burst is very average. Is he too slow for the NFL? Maybe. Looks and runs like an NFL back though. Rudi Johnson is a comparison I've made in the past, and he was drafted in almost the exact same spot. High floor/low ceiling. Best value is in 2RB leagues. Value drops off a lot in leagues with only one mandatory RB spot, as he doesn't look to have a huge ceiling unless the situation is just perfect.

Alvin Kamara - Feel like he was overdrafted based on versatility, kind of like Drake and Prosise last year. Not sure he really has featured back skills. Never carried the load in college. Doesn't really jump off the screen for me, though he looks okay. Bit of a boom-or-bust pick IMO. Could end up being a better Latavius Murray or a more power-oriented version of Demarco Murray. Could be irrelevant in two years.

Kareem Hunt - Studied him a lot two years ago after his huge sophomore season. Looked like a poor man's Todd Gurley to me. Always kind of liked him, but never had total faith. Interesting one. Stronger than his listed weight would lead you to believe and has some speed despite slow 40 time. Cuts/footwork are not always super clean, but for a bigger guy he can move a little bit. I can see him thriving in the NFL, where big backs with some burst/moves usually do okay.

D'Onta Foreman - Not a lot of "wow" factor, but has power and some decent north-south ability. Some similarities to former Texas RB Cedric Benson and could be a similar pro player. Solid, no-nonsense power back. Should push Miller right away.

======================

Jamaal Williams - Has a little flash and plays above his measurables. Lively runner. Has a little bit of power and can cut well. There's something there, but is he really an NFL starter? We may find out next season if Montgomery/Michael can't get the job done.

Marlon Mack - Reminds me a bit of Wendell Smallwood from the 2016 class. Both guys have nice fluidity in their cuts and movement, but both lack the raw athletic parts (size/speed/explosion) to obviously be special pro backs. Probably a JAG in the NFL, but short-term opportunity is there.

Wayne Gallman - Similar to Mack for me. Scrappy runner with better game speed than 40 time, but I don't really see it happening for him in the NFL in the long run.

James Conner - Meh. Plodding big guy. Not explosive. Nice story, but I don't think he was worth a 3rd rounder for the Steelers.

Donnel Pumphrey - Irrelevant.

Joe Williams - Irrelevant.

 
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EBF said:
Rankings are still fluid, especially in the first tier, but here's how I roughly see those guys:

Samaje Perine - Always liked him, while at the same time recognizing his limitations. Bit sluggish and may only be a two down guy. Burst is very average. Is he too slow for the NFL? Maybe. Looks and runs like an NFL back though. Rudi Johnson is a comparison I've made in the past, and he was drafted in almost the exact same spot. High floor/low ceiling. Best value is in 2RB leagues. Value drops off a lot in leagues with only one mandatory RB spot, as he doesn't look to have a huge ceiling unless the situation is just perfect.

Alvin Kamara - Feel like he was overdrafted based on versatility, kind of like Drake and Prosise last year. Not sure he really has featured back skills. Never carried the load in college. Doesn't really jump off the screen for me, though he looks okay. Bit of a boom-or-bust pick IMO. Could end up being a better Latavius Murray or a more power-oriented version of Demarco Murray. Could be irrelevant in two years.

Kareem Hunt - Studied him a lot two years ago after his huge sophomore season. Looked like a poor man's Todd Gurley to me. Always kind of liked him, but never had total faith. Interesting one. Stronger than his listed weight would lead you to believe and has some speed despite slow 40 time. Cuts/footwork are not always super clean, but for a bigger guy he can move a little bit. I can see him thriving in the NFL, where big backs with some burst/moves usually do okay.

D'Onta Foreman - Not a lot of "wow" factor, but has power and some decent north-south ability. Some similarities to former Texas RB Cedric Benson and could be a similar pro player. Solid, no-nonsense power back. Should push Miller right away.

======================

Jamaal Williams - Has a little flash and plays above his measurables. Lively runner. Has a little bit of power and can cut well. There's something there, but is he really an NFL starter? We may find out next season if Montgomery/Michael can't get the job done.

Marlon Mack - Reminds me a bit of Wendell Smallwood from the 2016 class. Both guys have nice fluidity in their cuts and movement, but both lack the raw athletic parts (size/speed/explosion) to obviously be special pro backs. Probably a JAG in the NFL, but short-term opportunity is there.

Wayne Gallman - Similar to Mack for me. Scrappy runner with better game speed than 40 time, but I don't really see it happening for him in the NFL in the long run.

James Conner - Meh. Plodding big guy. Not explosive. Nice story, but I don't think he was worth a 3rd rounder for the Steelers.

Donnel Pumphrey - Irrelevant.

Joe Williams - Irrelevant.
Click to expand...
EBF- great analysis, always look for your input in regards to rookie evaluations each year. I'm always looking for the next under the radar inside runner that seems to have that "it" factor vs combine number hero. Best examples- Emmitt Smith, Arian Foster, Le'Veon Bell. Who do you think best fits this mold for the 2017 rookie RB's?

 
dmac37 said:
EBF- great analysis, always look for your input in regards to rookie evaluations each year. I'm always looking for the next under the radar inside runner that seems to have that "it" factor vs combine number hero. Best examples- Emmitt Smith, Arian Foster, Le'Veon Bell. Who do you think best fits this mold for the 2017 rookie RB's?
Click to expand...
I think maybe the most important single quality a RB can have is the ability to make clean cuts and evade tackles. I've missed on some players who were all height/weight/speed, but I've rarely gone wrong banking on elusiveness. When I look at my hits and misses from the past, most of the guys I overrated were purely size/speed and most of the guys I was right on or underestimated had great cuts/fluidity.

I didn't like Bell as a college prospect at all, but when you watch him in the NFL he looks like a different guy. His moves are outstanding. Foster is another guy who tested poorly, but could cut and make moves. When I think about this year's backs, the one who screams out to me is Joe Mixon. For a big and athletic guy, he also possesses great feet and lateral agility. He's the one back in this class that I'd really bang the drum for.

The mid-round guys this year are thumpers for the most part. Foreman, Perine, and Hunt are bangers. They can move a bit, but they're not really the slippery type.

They say "you get what you pay for" and with that in mind it's going to be hard to find a great player in the late rounds-UDFA ranks.  I don't see a lot of guys there this year who really jump out at me. I would say for a dart throw, look at Devante Mays from Utah State/Packers.

 
EBF said:
Rankings are still fluid, especially in the first tier, but here's how I roughly see those guys:

Samaje Perine - Always liked him, while at the same time recognizing his limitations. Bit sluggish and may only be a two down guy. Burst is very average. Is he too slow for the NFL? Maybe. Looks and runs like an NFL back though. Rudi Johnson is a comparison I've made in the past, and he was drafted in almost the exact same spot. High floor/low ceiling. Best value is in 2RB leagues. Value drops off a lot in leagues with only one mandatory RB spot, as he doesn't look to have a huge ceiling unless the situation is just perfect.

Alvin Kamara - Feel like he was overdrafted based on versatility, kind of like Drake and Prosise last year. Not sure he really has featured back skills. Never carried the load in college. Doesn't really jump off the screen for me, though he looks okay. Bit of a boom-or-bust pick IMO. Could end up being a better Latavius Murray or a more power-oriented version of Demarco Murray. Could be irrelevant in two years.

Kareem Hunt - Studied him a lot two years ago after his huge sophomore season. Looked like a poor man's Todd Gurley to me. Always kind of liked him, but never had total faith. Interesting one. Stronger than his listed weight would lead you to believe and has some speed despite slow 40 time. Cuts/footwork are not always super clean, but for a bigger guy he can move a little bit. I can see him thriving in the NFL, where big backs with some burst/moves usually do okay.

D'Onta Foreman - Not a lot of "wow" factor, but has power and some decent north-south ability. Some similarities to former Texas RB Cedric Benson and could be a similar pro player. Solid, no-nonsense power back. Should push Miller right away.

======================

Jamaal Williams - Has a little flash and plays above his measurables. Lively runner. Has a little bit of power and can cut well. There's something there, but is he really an NFL starter? We may find out next season if Montgomery/Michael can't get the job done.

Marlon Mack - Reminds me a bit of Wendell Smallwood from the 2016 class. Both guys have nice fluidity in their cuts and movement, but both lack the raw athletic parts (size/speed/explosion) to obviously be special pro backs. Probably a JAG in the NFL, but short-term opportunity is there.

Wayne Gallman - Similar to Mack for me. Scrappy runner with better game speed than 40 time, but I don't really see it happening for him in the NFL in the long run.

James Conner - Meh. Plodding big guy. Not explosive. Nice story, but I don't think he was worth a 3rd rounder for the Steelers.

Donnel Pumphrey - Irrelevant.

Joe Williams - Irrelevant.
Click to expand...
I'd be to differ.  I watched him and thought he was kind of stiff in the hips, but had a nice burst like Tevin Coleman.  His combine measurement were above average as well.  When Shanahan drafted him, I thought the stars are aligned.

 
They must see something there to take him that high, but he didn't impress me. Bad pick IMO.

 
The Kamara analysis here makes me feel like there is another Alvin Kamara that I dont  know about who was drafted.I dont see Latavius comp or more power than Demarco at all. I see a player with excellent hands, burst and balance with average at best power and size.

 
Fair enough. Prosise is probably a better comparison. Both guys have decent height/weight, but don't run hard. Both were drafted for their versatility as much as their running skills.

I think the league puts a premium on backs who can contribute in the passing game, which may have led to inflated draft slots for players of this ilk. Jury's still out on Prosise and Drake, but is anyone who took them in a rookie draft last year happy with that pick? If Kamara is just another part-time back that a team overdrafted because they like the idea of throwing the ball his way even though he's not really a Sproles/Reggie Bush level receiver, is he really worth a 1st round rookie pick?

In such a deep class, I suspect he won't find his way onto any of my teams.

There's an argument that he'll grow into a starting role and it's certainly possible, but it's a big projection when you consider his limited college usage and it's one that I'm not really comfortable making. To me he's a very volatile rookie pick.

 
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EBF said:
Fair enough. Prosise is probably a better comparison. Both guys have decent height/weight, but don't run hard. Both were drafted for their versatility as much as their running skills.

I think the league puts a premium on backs who can contribute in the passing game, which may have led to inflated draft slots for players of this ilk. Jury's still out on Prosise and Drake, but is anyone who took them in a rookie draft last year happy with that pick? If Kamara is just another part-time back that a team overdrafted because they like the idea of throwing the ball his way even though he's not really a Sproles/Reggie Bush level receiver, is he really worth a 1st round rookie pick?

In such a deep class, I suspect he won't find his way onto any of my teams.

There's an argument that he'll grow into a starting role and it's certainly possibly, but it's a big projection when you consider his limited college usage and it's one that I'm not really comfortable making. To me he's a very volatile rookie pick.
Click to expand...
I am biased because he looked real good against the Pats but don't you think Prosise was showing something prior to his injury...he was pretty productive in three of the four games before he got hurt...I thought he was a nice fit for that offense and am interested to see how he looks in camp/the pre-season...

 
I have 4 rookie drafts coming up in two weeks. I don't have the luxury of letting things sort themselves out very long. Here are my initial thoughts on a few of these day 2 and 3 RBs:

Hunt - The more I learn about him the more I like the landing spot. Moving up to grab him is a big deal to me. Not sold that they want Ware.  I've heard Hunt has great vision and patience, which I value very highly. I'd like to learn more about him. If Andy Reid likes him I am interested. Late 1st to early 2nd for me.

Jamaal Williams - Since I recently traded for Ty Montgomery, I'm mostly stoked for the way the draft went. Except for this pick. I'll probably reach to get him. Waldman loves this guy and early Rotoworld rankings had him as an early 2nd FF rookie pick. BEFORE OJ HOWARD. He got busted at BYU for having a girl in his room. What a piece of ####, huh? A grown man no less. I haven't actually found any negatives on him yet. Except the girl. At BYU. This guy has mad sleeper appeal. In April. 

Kamara - See Payton, Sean, RBBC

Perine - Probably avoiding Skins RBs

Mack - Upside City

Joe Williams - Flyers are flyers. 

McNichols - lots of mouths to feed

Gallman - is he big? Are they going to sign Blount? Taxi stash?

Foreman - Not sure what to make of the opportunity. Lamar Miller has always been so polarizing and I really haven't watched him much. Durability is always what detractors say. Maybe they can complement each other very well in a timeshare. With upside if he ever becomes primary.

Anywho, there are a few others but those are the ones I've been thinking about.

 
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IMO, like the real NFL draft this is the area that can make a real difference for your dynasty team. I think there will be 2-3 RB's from this group that will have short term and long term value in dynasty, that won't cost the high first round value. Obviously the key is to identify which ones fit this scenario....

 
dmac37 said:
IMO, like the real NFL draft this is the area that can make a real difference for your dynasty team. I think there will be 2-3 RB's from this group that will have short term and long term value in dynasty, that won't cost the high first round value. Obviously the key is to identify which ones fit this scenario....
Click to expand...
That's the key.  A couple of these large 2nd tier of RB's will end up really good FF options.  Unfortunately i'm not good enough to figure out which ones it will be.  GL to those who can figure it out.

 
Not sure how I would rank them but the guys I'm most excited about...

Samaje Perine. Really good WAS offense overall, really good line, should easily get carries over Kelley and Jones.

Alvin Kamara in PPR leagues. Gonna be a crazy dynamic offense and Payton is gonna get this guy involved a lot, even with Ingram and Peterson there.

Marlon Mack. Only because it is the Colts offense and they can't be feeding Gore all the touches.

Wayne Gallman. I think a lot of people are going to be caught off-guard by his downhill running style, on an already potent offense with OBJ/Shephard/Marshall/Engram. I think he has the potential to score a lot of touchdowns due to his pure physicality, if only the line play was better.

 
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Good discussion guys.  Honesty I know less about this rookie class as a whole than any other rookie class since I started playing dynasty 6 years ago. That's unfortunate for me too because I had to go into rebuild mode with a few of my teams and probably have more rookie picks across the board this year than I've ever had. 

From what I can gather from discussion combined with the fact that the mid-tier players landed in better situations overall, I think this is going to be an interesting year for rookie drafts and there will be a lot of disparity from one individual league to another.  When in doubt,  I've always looked to NFL draft position as my fallback plan.  I guess a lot of us should be hoping that our leaguemates reach for situation in the late 1st-early 2nd and some of the higher ranked players in less attractive situations fall down the board. 

 
Nero said:
Right now, I'd go

Kamara

Foreman

Perine

Mack

Hunt

Joe Williams

Gallman

Conner, Cohen, Jamaal Williams and Pumphrey don't interest me yet.
Click to expand...
The game tape / highlight reels from Pumphrey and cohen are outstanding.  But man it's hard to imagine them lasting long in the league as anything other than gimmick type guys.  Either could turn into Devin hester / dante hall caliber return guys but Sproles seems a reach.  I really want to like both of them. Does anyone think they have Tyreek Hill level upside? 

 
EBF said:
Alvin Kamara -  Could end up being a better Latavius Murray or a more power-oriented version of Demarco Murray.
Click to expand...
I may just be misreading this but I do not get what you are saying here? Kamara is a more powerful version of D. Murray? That seems way off.

 
Hmm, didn't see this earlier. 

I'd go:

1. Perine - clearest path to success and underrated talent

2. Jamaal - can pass protect and has power to score at the goal line - great fit in GB

3. Kamara - bump for Sean Payton offense

4. Foreman - meh

5. Hunt - I'm betting Ware is better, but just maybe Hunt shines

Pass on the rest (would rather have Aaron Jones than the rest of these 3rd/4th guys)

 
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