Conan Troutman
Footballguy
Packer homer too, and I do see the value.Temper expectations, guys. McCarthy has been on record no less than half a dozen times over the years saying he'll never give a feature-back workload to one guy. It burns them out for the playoffs. They just don't need to run a guy into the ground to get wins because they have Rodgers.
In addition, it's not like they're devoid of an amazing 3rd down back. When healthy, TY is a phenomenal pass blocker and catcher out of the backfield. He's going to get plenty of use.
And another point - Rodgers throws in the red zone more than just about any other QB over the last decade. So Williams' TD upside is capped as well.
Packer homer here - and just not seeing the value with him.
McCarthy doesn't give one guy 250+ carries, that's right. But there's always been a clear hierarchy in his backfields. Even if it's just guys like Starks or Benson for one year, he's going to lean on the one back he trusts the most. Jones should fill the old Starks role (the Starks who backed up Lacy, not the 2010 playoff run Starks), provide a spark on running plays, spell the main guy and chime in on mop-up duty. Monty is the 3rd down back and will probably be in most 2-minute-offenses, but is neither a very good runner nor a durable one.
Williams can do everything reasonably well, even if he doesn't have one area where he excels at. That's your Grant/Lacy/Benson type that will get most snaps on normal drives.
I can see the following distribution per game: 26 rushing plays, 4 of them scrambles by Rodgers. Of the remaining 22, I see Williams getting about 14, Jones 6 and Monty 2. Targets should be Monty 6 (mainly on 3rd down and no-huddle/2-minute offense), Williams 4 (on 1st and 2nd down mainly, but also in slower no huddle drives) and Jones 1.
Let's give Williams a reasonable 3.5ypc and I see him getting 225 carries and close to 800y on the ground on the season, with about 40 cathes for 350 yards in the receiving game and about 8 TDs comined. That's a pretty decent RB2 for me. Of course he's no sure thing to actually get all that work, but neither are the other RBs you get in round 6-7.
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