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RB Jamaal Williams, NO (3 Viewers)

Bojang0301 said:
Oh cool, so one of the biggest outliers in NFL history. This thread is a joke full of hopes and prayers because he plays for Green Bay. If he ran like he did with someone like the Browns or Giants last year everyone would be rightfully dogging him.
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So much anger with this one. I'm sorry nobody else wants to hype your scat back right now.

Bojang0301 said:
Also Foster had 3 runs >15 yds on 54 carries his rookie year and a 4.8 ypc showing that he had elusiveness. Year 2 he had 19 such runs which would have put him first if we compare that season to last year. Do you expect Williams to magically become that player?
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Foster was playing with a competent offense that year. He only really played in 2 games and Schaub threw for about 300 yards and 2 TDs in both games. Kubiak was also known to have pretty favorable offenses for RBs. JW was facing stacked boxes with Hundley behind center. Hard to really knock down 15 yard runs when you have to break two tackles just to pick up 3 yards. 

I don't think TheDirtyWord was predicting JW becomes Foster, but they do share the "jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type" skill sets coming out of college. And you are completely right that most of JW's appeal comes from playing in GB. It is pretty rare that you can at least have a shot at getting a bellcow in a top 10 offense as you RB3/RB4. 

 
Bojang0301 said:
Oh cool, so one of the biggest outliers in NFL history. This thread is a joke full of hopes and prayers because he plays for Green Bay. If he ran like he did with someone like the Browns or Giants last year everyone would be rightfully dogging him.
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Dude, it’s not Cleveland and it’s opportunity to grab a starting RB. You love jones and hate JW. We get it.

 
ratbast said:
Dude, it’s not Cleveland and it’s opportunity to grab a starting RB. You love jones and hate JW. We get it.
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You bring absolutely nothing to this discussion. Offer me any sort of fact because all you have done is spout your ignorant opinion. At least that other dude offered a scouting report and compared traits. He may be wrong on his assessment but it’s way more quality than whatever you are.

 
FF Ninja said:
So much anger with this one. I'm sorry nobody else wants to hype your scat back right now.

Foster was playing with a competent offense that year. He only really played in 2 games and Schaub threw for about 300 yards and 2 TDs in both games. Kubiak was also known to have pretty favorable offenses for RBs. JW was facing stacked boxes with Hundley behind center. Hard to really knock down 15 yard runs when you have to break two tackles just to pick up 3 yards. 

I don't think TheDirtyWord was predicting JW becomes Foster, but they do share the "jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type" skill sets coming out of college. And you are completely right that most of JW's appeal comes from playing in GB. It is pretty rare that you can at least have a shot at getting a bellcow in a top 10 offense as you RB3/RB4. 
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We’ve had decent discussions in the past. Williams weighs 212 lbs. SOOOOOOO if Jones is a scat back Williams is an AWFUL scat back.

Also, he compared Williams to a possible HOF’er. It will bring out the stats which suggest Fosters athletic profile did not represent what he was on the field. He was an extremely elusive back much the same way Hunt had a subpar profile but had some of the fastest sustained MPH in a game last year. Hunt compares to Foster in his elusiveness. Not Mr. Run with a moist diaper at 212lbs.

 
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FF Ninja said:
:lmao:  Have you watched them play? This is not a scat back:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbaq4ZSHK1N/
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbaoaRGHigU/
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbap1WkHBnt/
 
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I wonder if YOUVE watched them play. Williams is hot trash. The point was that Jones is not a scat back as he probably weighs the same or more than Williams at this point. But you have your narrative to keep I suppose. Enjoy your volume weeks 1 and 2 against the Bears and Vikings. I’m sure it will end well.

 
FF Ninja said:
:lmao:  Have you watched them play? This is not a scat back:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbaq4ZSHK1N/
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbaoaRGHigU/
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbap1WkHBnt/
 
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I think he was referencing that Jones is considered a scat back at 5'9 208 (last year's weight), but JW is not at 6'0 212. If anything, Jamaal Williams fits the body type of a scat back more than Jones.

If Jones is considered a scat back because he's thin, quick, and agile... what does that make someone who is thinner, not as quick, and not as agile? 

ETA: IMO Jones' body type is in no way that of a scat back. Just because he's short he's labeled as one 

 
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Bojang0301 said:
I wonder if YOUVE watched them play. Williams is hot trash. The point was that Jones is not a scat back as he probably weighs the same or more than Williams at this point. But you have your narrative to keep I suppose. Enjoy your volume weeks 1 and 2 against the Bears and Vikings. I’m sure it will end well.
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Click on those 3 plays. That's not hot trash. Your bias is showing. I don't care how much Jones weighs, the guy gets arm tackled too much to be relied upon between the tackles 10+ times a game or at the goal line. He needs to be in space to be effective. Nothing wrong with that. Just not a great fit with the GB bellcow job.

Dr. Dan said:
I think he was referencing that Jones is considered a scat back at 5'9 208 (last year's weight), but JW is not at 6'0 212. If anything, Jamaal Williams fits the body type of a scat back more than Jones.

If Jones is considered a scat back because he's thin, quick, and agile... what does that make someone who is thinner, not as quick, and not as agile? 
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Just watch those 3 plays and you'll see what it makes him. He might weigh 212 lbs but he plays like a bruiser. Actually just watch the first one. That's all you really need to see to get the point.

 
Players with more breakaway runs than Jamaal Williams and his 153 carries last year:

Quizz Rodgers

Kenjon Barner

Malcolm Brown

Matt Forte

Rob Kelley

Steven Ridley

Terron Ward

Wendall Smallwood

Wayne Gallman

Kerwynn Williams

Mike Davis

Samaje Perine

Jonathan Stewart

Mike Tolbert

Alfred Morris

Orleans Darkwa

 
Bojang0301 said:
Also Foster had 3 runs >15 yds on 54 carries his rookie year and a 4.8 ypc showing that he had elusiveness. Year 2 he had 19 such runs which would have put him first if we compare that season to last year. Do you expect Williams to magically become that player?
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You mean a guy with 4.7 speed could be so successful at breaking 15+ runs?  I was led to believe this was pish-posh.  I’m sure having peak Matt Schaub helped soften defenses vs Brett Hundley.

I think the idea that we’ve pigeon-holed Williams after one season as a static talent/commodity is silly.  All I know is that it seems like he’s about to get a great opportunity.  

 
TheDirtyWord said:
You mean a guy with 4.7 speed could be so successful at breaking 15+ runs?  I was led to believe this was pish-posh.  I’m sure having peak Matt Schaub helped soften defenses vs Brett Hundley.

I think the idea that we’ve pigeon-holed Williams after one season as a static talent/commodity is silly.  All I know is that it seems like he’s about to get a great opportunity.  
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The NFL put the kabosh on advanced metrics but last year on field MPH was tracked. The fast two backs were Fournette and Hunt. Hunt was similar in his workouts to Foster and also had one less breakaway run than Foster’s second season. Foster clearly had good game speed over his metrics. Williams clearly does not. 

 
Another example would be Alex Collins last year and his 2nd highest total breakaway runs. It is clear there is game speed everyone is underestimating there, including myself last year. That’s how we learn though. If Williams is able to transform himself into a different back then I’ll admit to being wrong but that type of extreme change has only been documented in recent history with Lev’eon Bell which was accompanied with him dropping 20 or so lbs.

 
So...........it matters to me that it is GB we're talking about. They *will* be making sure their RBs can pass block. Among other reasons, this is why ordinary, not sexy, Williams should be the guy, for this year anyway. GB wants to keep the same guy in on the entirety of drives, running an up tempo offense where a defense can't guess run/pass. As such the RB *must* be able to block. We have seen so many talented runners fail at this skill and then wash out. There are absolutely exceptions across the league from coach to coach and team to team. But in GB it matters. Being on the Williams side doesn't mean that I think he is special. He fights for tough yards and knows his job(s). He has good hands and now he has opportunity. We should know real quick if he is any good, with Rodgers at QB.

 
It’s actually a crime the on field MPH won’t be given to the public this year. It would show guys like James Washington who had ~21mph sustained at the senior bowl are also superior athletes than what their workouts show. 

 
barackdhouse said:
So...........it matters to me that it is GB we're talking about. They *will* be making sure their RBs can pass block. Among other reasons, this is why ordinary, not sexy, Williams should be the guy, for this year anyway. GB wants to keep the same guy in on the entirety of drives, running an up tempo offense where a defense can't guess run/pass. As such the RB *must* be able to block. We have seen so many talented runners fail at this skill and then wash out. There are absolutely exceptions across the league from coach to coach and team to team. But in GB it matters. Being on the Williams side doesn't mean that I think he is special. He fights for tough yards and knows his job(s). He has good hands and now he has opportunity. We should know real quick if he is any good, with Rodgers at QB.
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Dude, Williams was rated as a terrible blocker in college. Pass blocking efficiency is not only a learned skill, it’s also wildly variable year to year. I don’t know how many times it needs to be said. Also, great backs don’t need to be great pass blockers because they serve the offense in different forms like catching the ball out of the backfield. 

 
TheDirtyWord said:
You mean a guy with 4.7 speed could be so successful at breaking 15+ runs?  I was led to believe this was pish-posh.  I’m sure having peak Matt Schaub helped soften defenses vs Brett Hundley.

I think the idea that we’ve pigeon-holed Williams after one season as a static talent/commodity is silly.  All I know is that it seems like he’s about to get a great opportunity.  
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So silly indeed. Almost as silly as looking for long runs when defenses were keying on the run. In his first real action, 55 of his 67 rushing yards came after contact! Not everybody gets to just run straight, untouched for 46 yards. Really showcased that 4.56 speed there. But then again, even slow 4.59 guys can make long plays sometimes. 

 
Faust said:
Packers' run game: From committee to Jamaal Williams show
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This from yesterday.

Packers RB Jamaal Williams poised for 'big year,' Mike McCarthy says

...Coach Mike McCarthy told media that second-year back Jamaal Williams has progressed nicely, and is in for a "big year" with the offense back to full strength.

"He's really poised to have a big year," McCarthy said of Williams, via ESPN.com. "Clearly without playing a game yet, I think we'll be talking about him at the end of the season as a second-year player that's made the jump."

Williams, selected in the fourth round of last year's draft out of BYU, rushed for 556 yards and four touchdowns on 153 carries as a rookie in 2017. The Packers will also use Aaron Jones and converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery, but Williams is in line to start Week 1 and could run away with the job.

"Jamaal was a heckuva player last year for us as a rookie, and now he's just so comfortable," McCarthy said. "He's so consistent, and like most rookies that go through an offseason, he's had a chance to catch his breath.

"You remember these guys come out of college, they're training for their senior year. They come out of college, they're training for the draft. They get drafted, then they've got to shift their training. They go to an NFL club, they roll all the way into the longest season of their life. So then, boom, it's done. They catch their breath, but now you can see just the way he's developed physically."

With Jones suspended the first two games of the season, Williams has the chance to run away with early-down work this season. Montgomery figures to check in on passing down, regardless.

Williams was thrown to the wolves last season, trying to find running lanes with eight and nine men in the box. Now, with Aaron Rodgers back healthy, Williams should have space to carve out a role as a quality back.
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Bojang0301 said:
Dude, Williams was rated as a terrible blocker in college. Pass blocking efficiency is not only a learned skill, it’s also wildly variable year to year. I don’t know how many times it needs to be said. Also, great backs don’t need to be great pass blockers because they serve the offense in different forms like catching the ball out of the backfield. 
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Agree with the first bolded, except not everyone is successful at learning it. Jones may indeed get there, maybe even this season. I am on the Williams side today, but it could certainly change. 

And for the 2nd bolded, nobody is saying either of these two backs are going to be great, are they? Even if so, great backs don't *have* to be good pass blockers, but they do in GB. It absolutely matters to coaches, some more than others. Even if you think those coaches are wrong to think that way, they do. This impacts our fantasy decisions. I think it was you, but it was stated above that if this was some scrub team, we wouldn't be having this debate. I agree fully.  These guys aren't special (yet)but carry enormous potential value because of Rodgers.

 
Bojang0301 said:
You bring absolutely nothing to this discussion. Offer me any sort of fact because all you have done is spout your ignorant opinion. At least that other dude offered a scouting report and compared traits. He may be wrong on his assessment but it’s way more quality than whatever you are.
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Already offered it:

GB likes him better, that’s better than any college stat you want me to dig up

he was the starting RB for the 2nd half season. With no Rodgers keeping Ds honest.

he is considered a solid blocker

jones is overrated (according to me, who else means anything different by this statement)

im fine if you disagree but you are a bit testy so let’s call it what it is.

You like Jones better. Fine. But don’t act like there is no debate at all. In my opinion JW is a better bet to produce over the course of 2018, just like he did in 2017. 

You aren’t going to convince me any differently until the season progresses.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Maybe in the post you quoted, but in my extensive posting in this thread and Jones' thread I dont believe I have. 
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Yeah I do remember that, wasn't aware who I was quoting. 

SameSongNDance said:
This is a reasonable way to divvy out carries although the most important to me at least is the bolded because it's the difference between Williams being on my radar or not. Since 2014 GB RBs have consistently averaged an ~16% market share. Rodger's averages ~550 pass attempts annually although I can't say for certain that he won't average more this year but 550 looks to be a rather conservative number. If my assumptions are correct that would leave only about 5-6 targets a game for RBs. If the targets were as voluminous for RBs are you're projecting they would command ~30% share which I do not see happening.

I've watched Williams catch the ball, he's not great. He can catch dump offs like every other RB but he doesn't even remotely excel like Montgomery. He will obviously catch passes as a product of being on the field a lot but expecting something like 64 targets is a bit much assuming Montgomery is healthy. I would expect the per game distribution to look more like Montgomery getting 3-4 targets and Williams getting 2-3.
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Indeed, looks like my math regarding targets was a bit off. Williams had 30 targets in the 8 games he started, so that was my starting point but the Hundley games were probably an outlier.

 
FF Ninja said:
JW
Pros: pass protection, breaking tackles, low college fumble rate, showed good hands last season, handled workhorse duties for last 8 games, drafted ahead of Jones and was ahead of Jones on last season's depth chart before injuries
Cons: awful combine, was not used in passing game in college, does not force missed tackles, most of his tape from last year was against stacked boxes, only 7 boring carries in the preseason

AJ
Pros: dat agility score tho, makes people miss, showed nice hands in college
Cons: pass protection, easy to arm tackle, nonexistent in the passing game last year, suspension, already dealing with a knee injury, despite the speedy hype he actually ran a 4.56 at the combine and sparq was near median value
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Just want to mention that it is not so much Jones' speed for why he has a penchant for big plays - he has elite acceleration so when he sees the hole he is off to the races.

 
I have Williams in one dynasty league and Mays/Montgomery in several. Also have Williams in my redraft. My 2 cents:

GB doesn't have a starting caliber NFL RB on its roster. They have one of the worst RB units in the league.

None of these guys are the long-term answer.

I expect Williams to lead the team in FF points, but Mays is probably my favorite runner on the team. Now that he's back from his injury, I expect him to be featured heavily tonight. Let's see if he can show anything.

 
EBF said:
I have Williams in one dynasty league and Mays/Montgomery in several. Also have Williams in my redraft. My 2 cents:

GB doesn't have a starting caliber NFL RB on its roster. They have one of the worst RB units in the league.

None of these guys are the long-term answer.

I expect Williams to lead the team in FF points, but Mays is probably my favorite runner on the team. Now that he's back from his injury, I expect him to be featured heavily tonight. Let's see if he can show anything.
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:mellow:

 
Dr. Dan said:
He fumbled his first two carries. That pretty much sums him up. I liked him last year. He makes the 53 until Jones comes back. He isn't exciting to me at all unless a massive injury bug hits the RBs. 
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I had him last year in a couple leagues. If he was still on my rosters this year he was one of the first cuts. Nobody has picked him up even in my leagues with over 400 players rostered.

 
FF Ninja said:
:mellow:
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Calling it like I see it. I went back recently and watched rookie highlights of Williams and Jones. Not sold on either guy as anything but a JAG.

Not really a controversial take, all things considered. The Packers spent three non-premium draft picks on RBs last year and ended up with three non-premium talents. None of these guys should be starting in the NFL.

 
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EBF said:
Calling it like I see it. I went back recently and watched rookie highlights of Williams and Jones. Not sold on either guy as anything but a JAG.

Not really a controversial take, all things considered. The Packers spent three non-premium draft picks on RBs last year and ended up with three non-premium talents. None of these guys should be starting in the NFL.
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Worst case scenario (as in they each plateau at their rookie level), I think Williams and possibly Jones are replacement level NFL starters strictly from a talent perspective (no specifics about skill set fit per offensive system). If either one takes a step forward in year 2, I think a starting job would be earned/warranted. There is NFL value in guys who pick up 4 ypc, are good pass blockers, have above average hands, and protect the football. It's not sexy, but it's useful. And I know JW didn't hit 4 ypc with Hundley, but I'm confident he will with Rodgers. 

Mays just feels like a trendy/contrarian hot take. I'll be shocked if he's still being talked about in two years. I use the word "still" loosely as I think you might be the only one talking about him in 2018. 

 
FF Ninja said:
I'll be shocked if he's still being talked about in two years. I use the word "still" loosely as I think you might be the only one talking about him in 2018. 
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I'll be shocked if any of these guys are still being talked about in two years. None of them are that good.

I just made a quick attempt at ranking all of the RBs in the NFL based on their talent level. I wouldn't put anyone from GB in the top 30.

The situation is similar to Indy's. Neither team really has a believable starter, so you can make a case for anyone. Who will lead the Colts in rushing in 2018? Mack? Wilkins? Michael? Nothing will surprise me. It reminds me of an old Bill Parcells quote, "When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks." The idea is that if you don't have anyone who is clearly starter quality then having a lot of bodies doesn't really matter because you don't really have anything. And that's what teams like the Colts, Packers, and Jets have right now at RB. You look at their group and there's just nobody who should be starting.

At the same time, we know somebody is going to get the ball. It's just inevitable. That opportunity has value, which is why I took Williams in my redraft. Got him very cheap as my RB4. I'm not under any illusion that he's a good talent or that he has job security though. Fourth round pick. Undersized for his play style. Average physical tools. 3.6 YPC as a rookie. Average or worse tape. He's the definition of JAG. There's really nothing there besides opportunity. If he squanders it, it will be next man up. That could be Jones. Montgomery. Mays. Anyone really.

For the record, I don't think Mays is a great back either. However, his college tape is more impressive than Williams. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic. There's more of an upside there. Doesn't matter if nobody else is talking about him. Who was talking about Spencer Ware when the Seahawks drafted him? Myself and a few others, but not many. Decent players get lost in the crowd sometimes. All it takes is the right opportunity and they can do something. Mays is dirt cheap, so hedging your bets and handcuffing Williams/Jones if Mays makes the 53 man roster is a no-brainer.

 
EBF said:
I'll be shocked if any of these guys are still being talked about in two years. None of them are that good.

I just made a quick attempt at ranking all of the RBs in the NFL based on their talent level. I wouldn't put anyone from GB in the top 30.

The situation is similar to Indy's. Neither team really has a believable starter, so you can make a case for anyone. Who will lead the Colts in rushing in 2018? Mack? Wilkins? Michael? Nothing will surprise me. It reminds me of an old Bill Parcells quote, "When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks." The idea is that if you don't have anyone who is clearly starter quality then having a lot of bodies doesn't really matter because you don't really have anything. And that's what teams like the Colts, Packers, and Jets have right now at RB. You look at their group and there's just nobody who should be starting.

At the same time, we know somebody is going to get the ball. It's just inevitable. That opportunity has value, which is why I took Williams in my redraft. Got him very cheap as my RB4. I'm not under any illusion that he's a good talent or that he has job security though. Fourth round pick. Undersized for his play style. Average physical tools. 3.6 YPC as a rookie. Average or worse tape. He's the definition of JAG. There's really nothing there besides opportunity. If he squanders it, it will be next man up. That could be Jones. Montgomery. Mays. Anyone really.

For the record, I don't think Mays is a great back either. However, his college tape is more impressive than Williams. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic. There's more of an upside there. Doesn't matter if nobody else is talking about him. Who was talking about Spencer Ware when the Seahawks drafted him? Myself and a few others, but not many. Decent players get lost in the crowd sometimes. All it takes is the right opportunity and they can do something. Mays is dirt cheap, so hedging your bets and handcuffing Williams/Jones if Mays makes the 53 man roster is a no-brainer.
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I think Indy's is worse and yes, I'm familiar with the Parcells' quote and the underlying message. Green Bay's situation seems different because there isn't a lot of confusion about who will start. It seems pretty clear right now that JW is the starter. All we're missing is the week 1 depth chart, but does anyone want to wager on a player besides JW sitting atop the chart when it is released? When the HC called Montgomery an offensive weapon or something like that, that pretty much sealed it for me. Jones being suspended, hurt, drafted behind JW, and running behind him in camp and the early weeks (and final weeks) of the season was enough writing on the wall for all but the truest Jones fans.

I don't see how you can hold JW's 3.6 ypc last year against him. He was in one of the worst situations possible. I read a Waldman review of his play and he was complimentary of Williams running. Maybe you guys watched different games. Maybe you already had your mind made up. I posted a stat earlier that 55 of his 67 yards against Chicago were after contact. That's some tough sledding. I don't feel like it ever got better as the season went on. It should be verrry different with Rodgers under center. Weeks 1 and 2 will be a good test. Both of those are very good defenses. 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about Williams' college tap being worse than Mays. In this case I've got his team and the whole NFL on my side since Mays was selected 3 rounds later than JW. 

 
FF Ninja said:
 In this case I've got his team and the whole NFL on my side since Mays was selected 3 rounds later than JW. 
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Mays had 37 carries in his final college season. Went down injured. Big part of why he slipped so far. On talent, he's probably a 4th-5th rounder as well. Same range as Williams and Jones.

I don't think any of these guys will be starting for GB two years from now. This season, anything can happen. Last year Ty seemed locked in as the guy at the start of the season and it didn't last. A lot can change in 16 games.

Williams is worth drafting in redraft if you can get him dirt cheap. Just don't get too attached, and be ready to pounce on the other backups if change seems imminent. I have him in one dynasty and I'll be looking to cash out if he has a few good games early. Right now the price is so low that it's not worth bothering.

As for Mays, his first order of business is just making the team. Missed the first three preseason games with injury. Should get a healthy dose of carries tonight. I thought he showed some good things at Utah State. Hasn't really had a big chance yet in the NFL.

 
EBF said:
Calling it like I see it. I went back recently and watched rookie highlights of Williams and Jones. Not sold on either guy as anything but a JAG.

Not really a controversial take, all things considered. The Packers spent three non-premium draft picks on RBs last year and ended up with three non-premium talents. None of these guys should be starting in the NFL.
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I was initially on Williams because of his relatively low cost in rookie drafts last year, but I've never banged the table. In fact, I traded him this past offseason in a deal I liked.

Everything doesn't have to be black & white. Some guys I like, but still in the middle somewhere concerning their outlook. That describes how I felt about Williams & nothing much has changed to this day.

What I'm surprised about is the love for Jones. I've never seen anything that suggests a long-term feature back, but he's got a lot of genuine truthers. People who believe Jones is an elite prospect. Much like your take, he's essentially a JAG to me, albeit one with some talent who could be productive in the right situation in the right role.

Williams has a chance, but it remains to be seen if he's got enough juice. The other traits are there to be a long-term feature back.

 
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EBF said:
Mays had 37 carries in his final college season. Went down injured. Big part of why he slipped so far. On talent, he's probably a 4th-5th rounder as well. Same range as Williams and Jones.

I don't think any of these guys will be starting for GB two years from now. This season, anything can happen. Last year Ty seemed locked in as the guy at the start of the season and it didn't last. A lot can change in 16 games.

Williams is worth drafting in redraft if you can get him dirt cheap. Just don't get too attached, and be ready to pounce on the other backups if change seems imminent. I have him in one dynasty and I'll be looking to cash out if he has a few good games early. Right now the price is so low that it's not worth bothering.

As for Mays, his first order of business is just making the team. Missed the first three preseason games with injury. Should get a healthy dose of carries tonight. I thought he showed some good things at Utah State. Hasn't really had a big chance yet in the NFL.
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That's fair. Senior injuries will drop draft stock. But he never once made any buzz last year and there was opportunity. If they saw anything from him last year in practice he wouldn't be on the bubble already this year.

FWIW, I've got a lot of JW shares in redraft and dynasty because I like his risk:reward ratio (the risk is usually b/w 2%-4% of budget), not because I ended up with him and then got on the bandwagon. I didn't have to invest much, so it won't hurt if you're right and they bring in a new starter next season. I just think the odds are against that happening IF he does his job this year. If he ends up sub-4.0 ypc, if he develops fumbilitis, if he takes a step back in pass blocking, if he can't stay healthy... then I could see them making a move. But this team has plenty of needs to tend to in the draft and I assume they will be relatively cash strapped after this Rodgers extension. I'm not expecting him to be a 9 year dynasty player (although it is not impossible he earns a 2nd contract with GB), but he seems like a cheap roll of the dice as a 2-3 year starter. But maybe I'm wrong about what I think GB wants in a RB. Either way, at his price, even one year as a starter is worth it.

If he starts hot, what would your asking price be?

 
FF Ninja said:
If he starts hot, what would your asking price be?
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I’ve tried to sell now in the one dynasty where I have him and am 2/3 of the way through a rebuild. I’m just not sure he’s a long term guy (I prefer Jones but there’s a lot of noise and arguments on both sides).  I personally believe if both are given the same workload, Jones would handily outproduce Williams, but perhaps that isn’t fair. Williams has the job for at least the first two weeks. To me, however, he’s a very volatile asset. 

Let’s say in weeks 1 and 2 he ends up averaging 3.7 YPC, not breaking big runs, and getting maybe 60-75 total yards and scores a TD. I don’t think it’s that far fetched given the opponents, and I think that would scare the hell out of a lot of potential buyers. I *think* a narrative could develop pretty rapidly that Montgomery or Jones is going to take over, maybe as soon as week 3, OR a narrative that it’s just going to be an ugly committee will be applied. What’s Williams worth then?

Conversely, Williams could go off the first two weeks, outperform expectations, and be worth quite a bit more by week 3 or week 4. 

The explanations for his lack of efficiency last year are going to get more evidence one way or another, and a lot of owners are going to make some snap decisions on the future based off the early games (sample size be damned).

If I could get what I thought was a more stable asset (I was sort of offered Michael Gallup in full PPR and am debating it), I’d probably do it. Depends on your risk tolerance I guess. If the latter scenario plays out and he looks like a workhorse in the GB backfield, I’d be shopping for a mid-1 and hoping someone bit before realizing he’s probably not a long term guy (at least I wouldn’t be st all shocked for GB to keep adding guys at that spot until they hit big).

 
JFS171 said:
I’ve tried to sell now in the one dynasty where I have him and am 2/3 of the way through a rebuild. I’m just not sure he’s a long term guy (I prefer Jones but there’s a lot of noise and arguments on both sides).  I personally believe if both are given the same workload, Jones would handily outproduce Williams, but perhaps that isn’t fair. Williams has the job for at least the first two weeks. To me, however, he’s a very volatile asset. 

Let’s say in weeks 1 and 2 he ends up averaging 3.7 YPC, not breaking big runs, and getting maybe 60-75 total yards and scores a TD. I don’t think it’s that far fetched given the opponents, and I think that would scare the hell out of a lot of potential buyers. I *think* a narrative could develop pretty rapidly that Montgomery or Jones is going to take over, maybe as soon as week 3, OR a narrative that it’s just going to be an ugly committee will be applied. What’s Williams worth then?

Conversely, Williams could go off the first two weeks, outperform expectations, and be worth quite a bit more by week 3 or week 4. 

The explanations for his lack of efficiency last year are going to get more evidence one way or another, and a lot of owners are going to make some snap decisions on the future based off the early games (sample size be damned).

If I could get what I thought was a more stable asset (I was sort of offered Michael Gallup in full PPR and am debating it), I’d probably do it. Depends on your risk tolerance I guess. If the latter scenario plays out and he looks like a workhorse in the GB backfield, I’d be shopping for a mid-1 and hoping someone bit before realizing he’s probably not a long term guy (at least I wouldn’t be st all shocked for GB to keep adding guys at that spot until they hit big).
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Not sure why that isn't already a processed trade! 

Consider Gallup was a 1st round pick in some leagues, high 2nd minimum. A low 1st or high 2nd for Jamaal Williams, IMO, is a no brainer 

 
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JFS171 said:
I’ve tried to sell now in the one dynasty where I have him and am 2/3 of the way through a rebuild. I’m just not sure he’s a long term guy (I prefer Jones but there’s a lot of noise and arguments on both sides).  I personally believe if both are given the same workload, Jones would handily outproduce Williams, but perhaps that isn’t fair. Williams has the job for at least the first two weeks. To me, however, he’s a very volatile asset. 

Let’s say in weeks 1 and 2 he ends up averaging 3.7 YPC, not breaking big runs, and getting maybe 60-75 total yards and scores a TD. I don’t think it’s that far fetched given the opponents, and I think that would scare the hell out of a lot of potential buyers. I *think* a narrative could develop pretty rapidly that Montgomery or Jones is going to take over, maybe as soon as week 3, OR a narrative that it’s just going to be an ugly committee will be applied. What’s Williams worth then?

Conversely, Williams could go off the first two weeks, outperform expectations, and be worth quite a bit more by week 3 or week 4. 

The explanations for his lack of efficiency last year are going to get more evidence one way or another, and a lot of owners are going to make some snap decisions on the future based off the early games (sample size be damned).

If I could get what I thought was a more stable asset (I was sort of offered Michael Gallup in full PPR and am debating it), I’d probably do it. Depends on your risk tolerance I guess. If the latter scenario plays out and he looks like a workhorse in the GB backfield, I’d be shopping for a mid-1 and hoping someone bit before realizing he’s probably not a long term guy (at least I wouldn’t be st all shocked for GB to keep adding guys at that spot until they hit big).
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I think you're right about weeks 1 and 2. Those are two tough opponents and I'm not expecting more than 3.7 ypc in those games. But I do expect at least 15 carries in both of them, which would put him around 55 yards. If he squeezes out a TD and 2-3 receptions his value will still probably go up. 

I don't think I'd do JW for Gallup right now and I like Gallup. I just worry that rookie WRs develop slowly (also I think Hurns is underrated) and there's a solid chance you could get Gallup+ for JW after 5 games. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Not sure why that isn't already a processed trade! 

Consider Gallup was a 1st round pick in some leagues, high 2nd minimum. A low 1st or high 2nd for Jamaal Williams, IMO, is a no brainer 
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FF Ninja said:
I think you're right about weeks 1 and 2. Those are two tough opponents and I'm not expecting more than 3.7 ypc in those games. But I do expect at least 15 carries in both of them, which would put him around 55 yards. If he squeezes out a TD and 2-3 receptions his value will still probably go up. 

I don't think I'd do JW for Gallup right now and I like Gallup. I just worry that rookie WRs develop slowly (also I think Hurns is underrated) and there's a solid chance you could get Gallup+ for JW after 5 games. 
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These are the poles of the argument regarding Williams. In some respects, I see Gallup as more stable because his runway will be longer. If Williams averages 60 yards per game with 2 receptions and one TD over the first two weeks, the skeptics are going to be claiming the W. If s guy like Gallup struggles the first few weeks, well he’s just a rookie learning the ropes. To me Gallup is a more stable asset, but Williams has more chance to pop off in the first month and be worth a ton. For Gallup to jump to Williams’ ceiling, he’d need 4-6 catches per week with 60-80 yards per week and a couple TDs. That might even be likely given the targets he’s supposed to get, but it’s not probable. 

I sit somewhere in the middle of you both. I’m not in love with Williams’ talent. I think Jones has a better chance at being a long term solution if he’s solved pass pro (he just pops off the screen to me more, and advanced metrics favored him too).  But coaches determine playing time, and they’re stubborn sometimes. Wouldn’t be the first time a less talented, more reliable guy kept a profitable role due to coaching preference. 

I think this all boils down to risk tolerance. 

 
EBF said:
I'll be shocked if any of these guys are still being talked about in two years. None of them are that good.

I just made a quick attempt at ranking all of the RBs in the NFL based on their talent level. I wouldn't put anyone from GB in the top 30.

The situation is similar to Indy's. Neither team really has a believable starter, so you can make a case for anyone. Who will lead the Colts in rushing in 2018? Mack? Wilkins? Michael? Nothing will surprise me. It reminds me of an old Bill Parcells quote, "When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks." The idea is that if you don't have anyone who is clearly starter quality then having a lot of bodies doesn't really matter because you don't really have anything. And that's what teams like the Colts, Packers, and Jets have right now at RB. You look at their group and there's just nobody who should be starting.

At the same time, we know somebody is going to get the ball. It's just inevitable. That opportunity has value, which is why I took Williams in my redraft. Got him very cheap as my RB4. I'm not under any illusion that he's a good talent or that he has job security though. Fourth round pick. Undersized for his play style. Average physical tools. 3.6 YPC as a rookie. Average or worse tape. He's the definition of JAG. There's really nothing there besides opportunity. If he squanders it, it will be next man up. That could be Jones. Montgomery. Mays. Anyone really.

For the record, I don't think Mays is a great back either. However, his college tape is more impressive than Williams. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic. There's more of an upside there. Doesn't matter if nobody else is talking about him. Who was talking about Spencer Ware when the Seahawks drafted him? Myself and a few others, but not many. Decent players get lost in the crowd sometimes. All it takes is the right opportunity and they can do something. Mays is dirt cheap, so hedging your bets and handcuffing Williams/Jones if Mays makes the 53 man roster is a no-brainer.
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Right there with you. I own both Williams and Jones on my Dynasty squad. Both are JAG. They are simply opportunity players because there are no real other options (Ty can't stay healthy it seems). Williams has first crack week 1. 

But talent wise? Ordinary and agree that both of them will not be around in a year or 2. Highly replaceable. Value? Yeah sure I guess. Would never want them as a RB3. RB4 is exactly right. 

 
JFS171 said:
These are the poles of the argument regarding Williams. In some respects, I see Gallup as more stable because his runway will be longer. If Williams averages 60 yards per game with 2 receptions and one TD over the first two weeks, the skeptics are going to be claiming the W. If s guy like Gallup struggles the first few weeks, well he’s just a rookie learning the ropes. To me Gallup is a more stable asset, but Williams has more chance to pop off in the first month and be worth a ton. For Gallup to jump to Williams’ ceiling, he’d need 4-6 catches per week with 60-80 yards per week and a couple TDs. That might even be likely given the targets he’s supposed to get, but it’s not probable. 

I sit somewhere in the middle of you both. I’m not in love with Williams’ talent. I think Jones has a better chance at being a long term solution if he’s solved pass pro (he just pops off the screen to me more, and advanced metrics favored him too).  But coaches determine playing time, and they’re stubborn sometimes. Wouldn’t be the first time a less talented, more reliable guy kept a profitable role due to coaching preference. 

I think this all boils down to risk tolerance. 
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I should've elaborated more. I think if the Packers win those two games, or at least play them close, then JW's job will be plenty safe even if he averages 3.0 ypc. So yeah, nay sayers might be saying they were right after 2 weeks, but he'll have bought himself some more time and can change some minds against WAS, BUF, DET, & SF in the coming weeks. McCarthy was pretty much sticking to his guns last year even when they were losing. Nobody lost their job for performance last season - only injury caused a change to the depth chart. 

Gallup certainly appears to have a longer runway, but what's to stop the Cowboys from giving him the Boyd treatment if he doesn't break out year 1? By that I mean draft or sign somebody in the next offseason like Cincy drafted Ross after spending a 2nd on Boyd. Unless Gallup and Hurns both light it up, it seems very likely the Cowboys will bring in a new name at WR next season.

 
JFS171 said:
These are the poles of the argument regarding Williams. In some respects, I see Gallup as more stable because his runway will be longer. If Williams averages 60 yards per game with 2 receptions and one TD over the first two weeks, the skeptics are going to be claiming the W. If s guy like Gallup struggles the first few weeks, well he’s just a rookie learning the ropes. To me Gallup is a more stable asset, but Williams has more chance to pop off in the first month and be worth a ton. For Gallup to jump to Williams’ ceiling, he’d need 4-6 catches per week with 60-80 yards per week and a couple TDs. That might even be likely given the targets he’s supposed to get, but it’s not probable. 

I sit somewhere in the middle of you both. I’m not in love with Williams’ talent. I think Jones has a better chance at being a long term solution if he’s solved pass pro (he just pops off the screen to me more, and advanced metrics favored him too).  But coaches determine playing time, and they’re stubborn sometimes. Wouldn’t be the first time a less talented, more reliable guy kept a profitable role due to coaching preference. 

I think this all boils down to risk tolerance. 
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Honestly, I feel like next year they likely draft a RB high or go after a FA. Even if Williams is serviceable enough this year as some people have said. I think it would take Aaron Jones playing half of the season at the same pace he did his first 4 games last year to squash that idea (and that could very well happen). There's some rumors that I'm hearing that GB is making a legitimate run at Mack with possibly Clay Matthews in the deal. They do that, I'm guessing they go "all in" at trying to win as much as they can these next 3-4 years by using some early picks or even some salary cap (maybe savings from Cobb being off the books) to grab a RB to win in 2019.

You said you'd probably be able to get a mid 1st if Williams does really well these first 5 weeks. That's his ceiling trade value in your example. Let's say Gallup would be taken anywhere between 1.11-2.2 in a 12 team rookie draft. So you're holding out for what, 5-6 more spots? Is it worth the risk? It may not be as high as his stock may go, but the lowest is certainly much much lower. If GB drafts or signs a RB next year, it's possible Williams is worth nothing. Next year Gallup may have taken his rookie lumps and may be looking like a breakout candidate. 

 
Meh, I don't think that's true at all. You can see with contract trends where teams are putting their priorities. RB contracts have been getting smaller and smaller while fringe WRs are getting paid. And just as importantly, it is Jerry Jones we are talking about vs. the Packers. One team looks to make a splash while the other team is a little more methodical. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Honestly, I feel like next year they likely draft a RB high or go after a FA. Even if Williams is serviceable enough this year as some people have said. I think it would take Aaron Jones playing half of the season at the same pace he did his first 4 games last year to squash that idea (and that could very well happen). There's some rumors that I'm hearing that GB is making a legitimate run at Mack with possibly Clay Matthews in the deal. They do that, I'm guessing they go "all in" at trying to win as much as they can these next 3-4 years by using some early picks or even some salary cap (maybe savings from Cobb being off the books) to grab a RB to win in 2019.

You said you'd probably be able to get a mid 1st if Williams does really well these first 5 weeks. That's his ceiling trade value in your example. Let's say Gallup would be taken anywhere between 1.11-2.2 in a 12 team rookie draft. So you're holding out for what, 5-6 more spots? Is it worth the risk? It may not be as high as his stock may go, but the lowest is certainly much much lower. If GB drafts or signs a RB next year, it's possible Williams is worth nothing. Next year Gallup may have taken his rookie lumps and may be looking like a breakout candidate. 
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This Mack thing you just said actually connected some dots for me. What if the Raiders traded Switzer to Pittsburgh with a good idea that they’re landing Cobb from GB?

Conspiracy theory. 

Regardless - you both make decent points. I think, personally, the time to sell Williams is either right now or midseason. I don’t want him on my roster through another draft, personally. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Meh, I don't think that's true at all. You can see with contract trends where teams are putting their priorities. RB contracts have been getting smaller and smaller while fringe WRs are getting paid. And just as importantly, it is Jerry Jones we are talking about vs. the Packers. One team looks to make a splash while the other team is a little more methodical. 
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Their QB turns 35 in 3 months, you think they have time to spend on a RB who gets 50-60 yards a game? Nobody got time for that! 

Guntekunst is a different GM than Thompson, and these are Thompson's guys

I'm hearing some pretty interesting rumors from some folks I trust very much about GB as a very likely and realistic trade partner for Mack. They want to win now. IMO if these RBs don't impress, bye bye next year; we need to win now.

 
FF Ninja said:
Meh, I don't think that's true at all. You can see with contract trends where teams are putting their priorities. RB contracts have been getting smaller and smaller while fringe WRs are getting paid. And just as importantly, it is Jerry Jones we are talking about vs. the Packers. One team looks to make a splash while the other team is a little more methodical. 
Click to expand...
Weirdly enough, Gallup’s playerprofiler page compares him to Justin Blackmon. Feels like a natural replacement for Dez in Jerruh’s mind. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Their QB turns 35 in 3 months, you think they have time to spend on a RB who gets 50-60 yards a game? Nobody got time for that! 

Guntekunst is a different GM than Thompson, and these are Thompson's guys

I'm hearing some pretty interesting rumors from some folks I trust very much about GB as a very likely and realistic trade partner for Mack. They want to win now. IMO if these RBs don't impress, bye bye next year; we need to win now.
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Tevin Coleman and Alex Collins look to be FAs next year. Either landing with GB wouldn’t surprise me at all. 

 
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