Need help on my rookie draft strategy! (1 Viewer)

Year 2. 12 team .5 ppr 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1WR/RB/TE, 1K, 1DEF, 15 bench, Draft Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 2.01, 4.04, 5.01

QB Luck Jameis

RB Doug Martin, Crowell, Rob Kelley, Duke Johnson, Booker, Vereen

WR Evans, Hopkins, Dez, Tyreek Hill, Lockett, Perriman, JJ Nelson, Kevin White, Treadwell

TE Hooper, Ladaruis Green

When it was obvious my team wasn't going anywhere last year, I traded away Melvin Gordon for a 1st round pick and Dez Bryant. I was expecting Woodhead to still be a factor this year in SD. Oh Well. That put me in a hole at RB and I could use TE help, too. I've been trying to move my 1.01 pick down a few spots to grab Mixon and add a 2nd rounder but I haven't had any luck. I was, however, able to move from 1.10 to 1.04 in exchange for my 3.01 for his 4.04. I was counting on a Marlon Mack type RB at that 3.01 pick but I couldn't resist a chance at 2 top 4 picks. So now I grab Fournette and Mixon right? Except I can't help but feel like taking Corey Davis and a top level RB is an even bigger win. Then there's the question of TE. I'd love to pick up a guy like Hunt at pick 2.01 but if a top 3 TE is there than I'll be tempted. So I came into this draft expecting to go RB RB RB but I may go WR RB TE.

Davis, Mixon and Engram (for instance) or do I need to go Fournette, Mixon, Hunt/Perine/Foreman?

and a side question, what value do you guys put on James White and Rex Burkhead? Both these guys are somehow available along with Lynch.

I would go Fournette and mixon. With the Wr's you have you are set there. I would also try to trade the 2.1 for a 1st next year. That is a great way to stay on top. 

I'd go RB/RB and if Njoku was there with the 2.1 I'd sprint to the podium.

Never go into a draft tied to forcing a particular position.  Especially in a dynasty format you should always go with who you rank as the best player available.  If you really don't have an opinion as to which is the best player then factor in your positional situation. 

For your first two picks I would lean towards two of Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon (in that order).  I could see putting Davis in for Mixon (I am not a huge fan) but as the tie break being your WR's I would move Mixon slightly ahead of Davis.

For the 2nd round I wouldn't even start placing people in those slots as you have no idea how the draft will pan out.  Just take the BPA once it comes to you.      

Gally said:

Never go into a draft tied to forcing a particular position.  Especially in a dynasty format you should always go with who you rank as the best player available.  If you really don't have an opinion as to which is the best player then factor in your positional situation. 

For your first two picks I would lean towards two of Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon (in that order).  I could see putting Davis in for Mixon (I am not a huge fan) but as the tie break being your WR's I would move Mixon slightly ahead of Davis.

For the 2nd round I wouldn't even start placing people in those slots as you have no idea how the draft will pan out.  Just take the BPA once it comes to you.      

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Thank you for the response. I wouldn't normally go into a draft forcing a position except that there are 4 RBs considered elite and I have 2 of the top 4 picks and need rbs, which is why I traded back up into the top 4. So I think in this situation it's ok for me to go in with certain positions in mind.

Similarly, there's a drop off in wr talent after Mike Williams, imo. That means that, unless a top 2 wr falls to 2.01, I'm drafting another RB or a TE, hence my post.

At 1.04  Be prepared for your worst case situation. What if Mixon goes at #2 or 3? I'm not saying it's "bad" if you get one of the other guys but never expect to get a guy in the draft. He seems to be your guy though, so take him if you can. 

I think you have to take LF at 1.01 though. He was drafted to be a workhorse. There's few of those backs in the league right now, and none on your team. Plus, RBs have a quicker return on investment. It's not crazy to think Davis is pegged as a third year breakout candidate in 2019.

At 2.01 get your TE. Howard, Njoku, Engram. If not you should have some good WR options there. Zay, Ross, JuJu.

Also, closer too the draft, you might be able to move down a bit from 1.01 and get something else. 

DirtyCashDylan said:

Thank you for the response. I wouldn't normally go into a draft forcing a position except that there are 4 RBs considered elite and I have 2 of the top 4 picks and need rbs, whuich is why I traded back up into the top 4. So I think in this situation it's ok for me to go in with certain positions in mind.

Similarly, there's a drop off in wr talent after Mike Williams, imo. That means that, unless a top 2 wr falls to 2.01, I'm drafting another RB or a TE, hence my post.

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Having positions in mind is different than forcing positions ahead of time.  When  you prep your draft you should always have an idea of who may be available and have a plan but I have seen many people say I must take position X with my 2nd pick and then something strange happens in the draft and someone falls for whatever reason that is a much better player and they pass because they had to take position X. 

Now as you said there are 4 RB's "considered elite" so you want two of them.  The real question is whether or not you believe them to be elite and worth taking over an "elite" WR.  If you don't think the RB's are elite (even if other's do) then trust yourself and pick you think will be the better asset regardless of position.   For example, I am not a big fan of Mixon so I wouldn't force picking him over some of the other players.  For me, I would probably put Davis & WIlliams over him but I can totally see why if you like him the same as the WR's that you would go Mixon based on your situation. 

Due to the starting reqs, and your roster makeup, I think id go Rb/Rb here and hope to land LF and then Mixon, but in the case he goes 2 or 3, id either take Davis or Cook, or if CMC is there, try and move back and let someone come up and take him, but its likely better to just take whoever is there out of Davis and Cook, since one will for sure be there if mixon goes before.

Then just take BPA at 2.1. There will likely be 1 of the 3 TE there, unlikely to be OJ, but possibly 1 of the other 2. If you could get Engram or Njoku at 2.1, thats big for you

Thanks guys! My buddy at 1.03 is in love with McCaffrey so I'm pretty sure he's gone. Mixon might go #2 I guess and in that case I'd be fine with Cook. I'm just assuming Mixon but either way. I'm an OU guy and really don't want Mixon blowing up on somebody else's roster.

In half PPR and with your roster, I'd definitely go Fournette and Mixon. 

And if one of the top 3 TEs makes it to 2.01, I think that's BPA and the route to go. 

No matter what you need to come out with a TE. But would obviously not go 1.1 with one. You may consider Howard at 4 tho that may still be a reach. Problem is, with your current picks, Howard doesn't get out of the 1st round I don't think, too much hype. So between Njoku and Engram (or maybe just the last remaining). Beyond that, I'd look first for 2 RBs and a TE, but if there's a WR just sitting around you really like, go that way. Davis is the only clear #1 in this draft and will by far have the most opportunity this season out of all rookie receivers. I would strongly consider him at #4 if there. I'm not entirely sold on your WRs. I only truly trust Jordy and Evans. You could use another #1, and another #1 with a young quality QB unlike some of your others.

ShamrockPride said:

No matter what you need to come out with a TE. But would obviously not go 1.1 with one. You may consider Howard at 4 tho that may still be a reach. Problem is, with your current picks, Howard doesn't get out of the 1st round I don't think, too much hype. So between Njoku and Engram (or maybe just the last remaining). Beyond that, I'd look first for 2 RBs and a TE, but if there's a WR just sitting around you really like, go that way. Davis is the only clear #1 in this draft and will by far have the most opportunity this season out of all rookie receivers. I would strongly consider him at #4 if there. I'm not entirely sold on your WRs. I only truly trust Jordy and Evans. You could use another #1, and another #1 with a young quality QB unlike some of your others.

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I wish that was Jordy Nelson but, alas, it's only JJ Nelson from the Cardinals. Can you clarify what you meant by the bolded? 

DirtyCashDylan said:

I wish that was Jordy Nelson but, alas, it's only JJ Nelson from the Cardinals. Can you clarify what you meant by the bolded? 

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Haha. Daw shoot. Guess I only read one of those J's. Then yes. If Davis is still there at 4, that's big time for you IMO.

DCD,

I think you are pretty strong at WR with Evans/DHop/Dez and you have other very promising WR waiting in the wings with Hill. Lockett, Perriman, White, Treadwell. 

While I think there is always room for one more it isn't a pressing need and adding Davis might not upgrade your starting line up.

So while I think Corey Davis is the BPA and I rank him ahead of the top 4 RB, to me they are all similar value to each other, so in this case need and team construction should guide your decision, other things being equal.

It sounds like you prefer Mixon of the 4 RB and you have information that the person who holds pick 1.03 wants McCaffrey.

You said you tried offers of pick 1.01 for (1.02, 1.03, 1.04) and a 2nd round pick. What if you were to move down to pick 1.08 and a 1st in 2018? Or if you are still looking for a 2nd round pick in 2017 you may need to move down further to find a trade partner, and doing so would move you outside of the top tier of 5-6 RbWr players, if you want to use that pick to upgrade your TE position, perhaps you can do that and profit on the exchange at the same time? If you time I think this is an option worth investigating. Similarly you could try to trade down from pick 1.04 to a later pick that would be used on a TE if you like the return.

If you want to make sure you get Mixon the surest way to do so is to pick him 1st overall. If you did move from pick 1.04 to say 1.09 and 1st in 2018 then who cares that most would take Fournette? Take the guy you like the most and will give you the most enjoyment on Sundays. If you think Mixon will fall to pick 1.04 and you are ok with it if he doesn't then you can wait, or trade off pick 1.01 instead of 1.04 it is always easier to trade down from the top and extract the most value from doing so. You just need to be willing to move down enough to find a trade thats worth it. The owners with the early picks are likely happy with whoever falls to them, so not need to pay to move up.

While you can use help at RB I do like Doug Martin, Crowell, Booker, Duke Johnson. The cuppord is not completely bare there. Two rookie RB would be great but you could likely get by with only one if you could find a deal to make it worth your while.

Another approach would be to sell one of your WR and depending on what you got for that, replace that WR with Corey Davis with one of your top 4 picks.

So to me your choices are 

RB/RB/TE if you do no further trades

RB/TE + 1st round pick in 2018 and/or 2nd round pick in 2017 (RB/TE)

RB/WR/TE + whatever you got for trading away a WR