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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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Was planning on starting S. Ware over A. Jones. That doesn't look to be working out.

Really hate this matchup. Could luck out and land in the endzone but just don't see a huge ceiling here.

Actually debating D. Williams over him if there's no sign of C. West, but doubt I have the guts to do it. 

GB on the road this year has been trash as well. Feeling trapped. 

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I have a banged up TY Hilton in over Jones and Ware at this moment. At Chicago has me very worried but if TY is still hurting I might be forced to go with Jones. 

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10 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

Was planning on starting S. Ware over A. Jones. That doesn't look to be working out.

Really hate this matchup. Could luck out and land in the endzone but just don't see a huge ceiling here.

Actually debating D. Williams over him if there's no sign of C. West, but doubt I have the guts to do it. 

GB on the road this year has been trash as well. Feeling trapped. 

Damien should be solid this week. If ppr I'd go with Damien, standard Jones.

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2 hours ago, beerbuff said:

Damien should be solid this week. If ppr I'd go with Damien, standard Jones.

I'm considering D. Williams. Can't believe it. The "start your studs" and "overthinking it" experts would have a field day with this one for sure.

A couple other things on D. Williams. T. Hill is banged up, S. Watkins out, and the LAC are exceptional vs. TEs -- Kelce has his worst games historically against the Chargers. So, logic points towards increased involvement in the running game tonight. 

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1 hour ago, grateful zed said:

so, where do you rank this guy in dynasty?

= to Dalvin Cook and Michel

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7 hours ago, grateful zed said:

so, where do you rank this guy in dynasty?

I have him as RB17 right now for the offseason.  I think there's room to get higher by 3-4 spots though.  

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Anyone considering selling? 

 

As odd as it is to say, I am. This new coaching thing has me wondering if Jones might be replaced in a year or two, or maybe even as early as this draft. He is explosive with the ball (led the league in ypc by a lot), but he got hurt again, and who knows if the new coach schemes for him or away from him. Might be a decent time to sell. someone talk me off the ledge 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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On ‎1‎/‎5‎/‎2019 at 3:34 PM, grateful zed said:

so, where do you rank this guy in dynasty?

 

17 Keryon Johnson

18 Devonta Freeman

19 Tarik Cohen

20 Aaron Jones

21 Mark Ingram

22 Damien Williams

23 Jordan Howard

I have him at 20 (in ppr) but couldn't argue with anyone that wanted to move him up past Cohen and Freeman.

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Anyone considering selling? 

 

As odd as it is to say, I am. This new coaching thing has me wondering if Jones might be replaced in a year or two, or maybe even as early as this draft. He is explosive with the ball (led the league in ypc by a lot), but he got hurt again, and who knows if the new coach schemes for him or away from him. Might be a decent time to sell. someone talk me off the ledge 

I have no issue with selling him but I wouldn't give him away.  I would move him if I was getting what I thought was equal value or more in return. 

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Anyone considering selling? 

 

As odd as it is to say, I am. This new coaching thing has me wondering if Jones might be replaced in a year or two, or maybe even as early as this draft. He is explosive with the ball (led the league in ypc by a lot), but he got hurt again, and who knows if the new coach schemes for him or away from him. Might be a decent time to sell. someone talk me off the ledge 

I own him in a couple leagues, along with Marlon Mack, both of who I'm looking to package to upgrade along with one of my WR's.  They are the perfect chip to use to upgrade because they are actually good.  Maybe not elite but they carry decent value and it's easier to upgrade off of that.  Sure they're nice to have but like you said there might be some changes coming and the unlikelyhood of him/them becoming elite RB's is high so use them to upgrade somewhere.  I for one am going for Kamara or McCaffrey by using them.  Probably a hard gap to bridge, but who doesn't like bold moves in the offseason right?  

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Anyone considering selling? 

 

As odd as it is to say, I am. This new coaching thing has me wondering if Jones might be replaced in a year or two, or maybe even as early as this draft. He is explosive with the ball (led the league in ypc by a lot), but he got hurt again, and who knows if the new coach schemes for him or away from him. Might be a decent time to sell. someone talk me off the ledge 

Has there been any news on the extent of his injury? Does he go under the knife?

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Gotta say I'm a little surprised by this.  Nearly every Packer fan was screaming for Jones to be the starter by week 3 or 4.  (right after his 2 game suspension).  He clearly was far more dynamic than Williams.  McCarthy refused to start him until week 7.  From week 7-14, when he was the starter, he was the #5 RB in the league and averaged nearly 19ppg in PPR.  You also have to account for the fact that McCarthy was running one of the most stale offenses in the league.  We don't know who the next coach is going to be just yet, but it sure looks like its going to be a forward thinking offensive mind.  (Josh McDaniels has the inside track right now).  

If you believe a new coach can invigorate Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense (and I do), there is ample room for huge growth.  Packers were 12th in yards, and 14th in scoring this year.  They scored 376 points.  Top offenses in KC, LA and NO, all scored between 504-565 points.  Even if the Packers score 450 next year that's 10 more TDs to go around.  That could push Jones into the 20-25ppg category.  

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3 hours ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

Gotta say I'm a little surprised by this.  Nearly every Packer fan was screaming for Jones to be the starter by week 3 or 4.  (right after his 2 game suspension).  He clearly was far more dynamic than Williams.  McCarthy refused to start him until week 7.  From week 7-14, when he was the starter, he was the #5 RB in the league and averaged nearly 19ppg in PPR.  You also have to account for the fact that McCarthy was running one of the most stale offenses in the league.  We don't know who the next coach is going to be just yet, but it sure looks like its going to be a forward thinking offensive mind.  (Josh McDaniels has the inside track right now).  

If you believe a new coach can invigorate Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense (and I do), there is ample room for huge growth.  Packers were 12th in yards, and 14th in scoring this year.  They scored 376 points.  Top offenses in KC, LA and NO, all scored between 504-565 points.  Even if the Packers score 450 next year that's 10 more TDs to go around.  That could push Jones into the 20-25ppg category.  

yes, I think this is a possibility as well. if a new coach can feed him the ball and get him more involved in the passing game then he has potential to be a rb1

I'm just rosterbating, as @Hot Sauce Guylikes to put it

Edited by Dr. Dan
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9 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Anyone considering selling? 

 

As odd as it is to say, I am. This new coaching thing has me wondering if Jones might be replaced in a year or two, or maybe even as early as this draft. He is explosive with the ball (led the league in ypc by a lot), but he got hurt again, and who knows if the new coach schemes for him or away from him. Might be a decent time to sell. someone talk me off the ledge 

Considering you're hiring the guy who refused to play Derrick Henry over a used-up scat back (until Henry forced his hand twice), who knows? 

But Jones does seem more like the type of runner LaFleur was irrationally infatuated with, so I'd hold for now and hope he gets Dion Lewis volume.

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30 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Considering you're hiring the guy who refused to play Derrick Henry over a used-up scat back (until Henry forced his hand twice), who knows? 

But Jones does seem more like the type of runner LaFleur was irrationally infatuated with, so I'd hold for now and hope he gets Dion Lewis volume.

yes, after hearing of this hire I like Jones a LOT more.

I think TEN was a mess due to this new offense and not really having the personnel for it. GB does. I think Jones has potential to see a huge increase in targets, which is excellent in ppr. 

 

Holding with confidence 

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3 hours ago, Arodin said:

Considering you're hiring the guy who refused to play Derrick Henry over a used-up scat back (until Henry forced his hand twice), who knows? 

But Jones does seem more like the type of runner LaFleur was irrationally infatuated with, so I'd hold for now and hope he gets Dion Lewis volume.

You can’t be serious about the Derrick Henry take.  Guy averaged 3.7 yards per carry over his first 128 carries (12 games).  

 

Not only that, Henry had 18 carries in week 2 and again in week 3.  Got 56 and 57 yards.  3.1 ypc.  

You are also assuming the OC is fully in charge of playing time decisions when the GM just paid Dion Lewis a big FA contract.  

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16 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Anyone considering selling? 

 

As odd as it is to say, I am. This new coaching thing has me wondering if Jones might be replaced in a year or two, or maybe even as early as this draft. He is explosive with the ball (led the league in ypc by a lot), but he got hurt again, and who knows if the new coach schemes for him or away from him. Might be a decent time to sell. someone talk me off the ledge 

I sold him for the 1.4 right before my leagues trade deadline. Full disclosure, this is Keep 13 league so we can’t go as deep and hold as many folks as most dynasty leagues, and my team is pretty stacked, so I decided to take a high first round return on a guy I bought for a 3rd rounder in the offseason. Championship! ;) 

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In two dynasties I have Jones as a RB3/bench type player and in circumstances like that I think he’s a hold just due to upside *if he’s clearly the guy under the new regime.  

In a situation where you need him as a regular starter I feel more uneasy. I think his talent is pretty clear and he’s been efficient and very effective with his touches. But he doesn’t have the kind of high draft pedigree that automatically transfers between staffs and he only gained the clear starting role this year and for a relatively brief time. It’s also difficult to tell what NFL folks think of him. He was a sleeper darling in FF circles in the 2018 offseason. There were several pieces during the season about how GB needed to give him more touches. But did he establish himself in a way that provides anything presumptive going into 2019?

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On 1/5/2019 at 2:34 PM, grateful zed said:

so, where do you rank this guy in dynasty?

I have him at RB 22 but I could see taking him ahead of some of the guys ahead of him like Cohen or McKinnon.

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37 minutes ago, DAG said:

In two dynasties I have Jones as a RB3/bench type player and in circumstances like that I think he’s a hold just due to upside *if he’s clearly the guy under the new regime.  

In a situation where you need him as a regular starter I feel more uneasy. I think his talent is pretty clear and he’s been efficient and very effective with his touches. But he doesn’t have the kind of high draft pedigree that automatically transfers between staffs and he only gained the clear starting role this year and for a relatively brief time. It’s also difficult to tell what NFL folks think of him. He was a sleeper darling in FF circles in the 2018 offseason. There were several pieces during the season about how GB needed to give him more touches. But did he establish himself in a way that provides anything presumptive going into 2019?

I think it is a good question as with a new coaching staff they do not have ties to the players of previous staff. It is entirely possible that the Packers will add some new RB this offseason.

However the pattern I have seen from the Packers organization is that they double dip on RB in the draft when they need them. They did this with Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Franklin had a career ending injury before even getting a chance, but this would have been an interesting competition between the two RB if he hadn't. The Packers did not really address the position until Lacys rookie contract was up and then they drafted WIlliams and Jones in the same year to replace him (and Starks).

So I think they will stay the course here and I am not expecting a high investment at the RB position at this time.

Rodgers openly campaigned for Jones to play more and I don't think he would have done that if he didn't think Jones was the best choice. He also would not have done this if the head coach was smart enough to agree (I don't think he was). It was like Rodgers was using the media to influence his coaches decisions about who to play on offense.

I figure the new coach will listen to Rodgers more than the last one.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Rodgers openly campaigned for Jones to play more and I don't think he would have done that if he didn't think Jones was the best choice. He also would not have done this if the head coach was smart enough to agree (I don't think he was). It was like Rodgers was using the media to influence his coaches decisions about who to play on offense.

I figure the new coach will listen to Rodgers more than the last one.

Yeah, this seems like a pretty important factor. Good call. I know @Dr. Dan has mentioned this several times before as well.

Edited by DAG

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Per PFF, Aaron Jones was the 12th best RB in the league this year.  He led the league in yards per attempt.  Averaged 5.5 in 2017 and 2018.  

Packers roster is riddled with holes, especially on defense.  I can't think of a position they need less than a RB.  

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Everyone is starting to pump him up and put him on a pedestool but lets not forget he was on suspension at the start of the year, he has started to become a bit annoying with injuries and it is a new coaching staff that tells us the questions are still unanswered.  As much as I liked him and own him in places, cautious optimism is what's needed because there are some red flags for this guy already.  

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On 1/7/2019 at 3:42 PM, Dr. Dan said:

yes, I think this is a possibility as well. if a new coach can feed him the ball and get him more involved in the passing game then he has potential to be a rb1

I'm just rosterbating, as @Hot Sauce Guylikes to put it

I stole the line from The League. Credit where due. ;) 

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Everyone is starting to pump him up and put him on a pedestool but lets not forget he was on suspension at the start of the year, he has started to become a bit annoying with injuries and it is a new coaching staff that tells us the questions are still unanswered.  As much as I liked him and own him in places, cautious optimism is what's needed because there are some red flags for this guy already.  

A sprained MCL does not seem like a red flag to me nor does his two game suspension already served.

If Jones had a 300 touch season performing as well or near to as well as he has people would have him a lot higher than they do.

No defense is going to worry about Jones (or any RB) while Rodgers is starting, so its a great opportunity for any RB here.

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On 1/10/2019 at 1:54 PM, Kitrick Taylor said:

Per PFF, Aaron Jones was the 12th best RB in the league this year.  He led the league in yards per attempt.  Averaged 5.5 in 2017 and 2018.  

Packers roster is riddled with holes, especially on defense.  I can't think of a position they need less than a RB.  

Don't they need a third RB? Montgomery went to Baltimore, right?

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