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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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1 minute ago, DAG said:

Yeah all of the above plus the foregoing discussion about Rogers never throwing to RBs. He could very well put together a great season but so much has to fall into place. I also wouldn’t be surprised by Dexter Williams cutting in a bit. 

It's just unpredictable at this point, which I don't like. I would be a holder if I didnt have Mixon dangled in front of me a few months ago, and I would be hoping for the best. Theres a lot to like and Jones has great value when healthy, but I'm not sure I see top 12 upside, and I think GB drafts a rb next year 

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I'm a little soured due to how badly LaFluer screwed up the backfield in TEN, his comments that Jones is better in RBBC, and the fact that Jones cant stay healthy

You know what I didn’t think about that. As a Henry owner last year I am all too familiar with the head scratching week to week in how Henry was used. I thought LaFleur would be a positive but it may the exact opposite. ####. Thanks for pointing that out. 

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Jones' value appears a tad inflated to me.  We really have no idea how he's going to be utilized and he's never proven he can handle a RB1 workload.  Also LaFleur has been hesitant to commit to Jones per ESPN's Matthew Berry.

I'd much rather have the other RBs around his ADP including Devontae Freeman and Marlon Mack whom have well established roles in proven offenses.

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Good discussion. I’m taking another look at the whole situation. I was all about Jones but valid concerns being brought up. 

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On 6/29/2019 at 1:59 AM, travdogg said:

Jones is the only one I'd feel good about at 3.6, and that includes the WR's you listed. 

Side note, really not feeling Diggs in the new offense there. Not sure I'd have him as a top-20 WR this year.

What about this aren't you feeling, and upon what are you basing your lack of feeling?

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22 hours ago, DAG said:
22 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I'm a little soured due to how badly LaFluer screwed up the backfield in TEN, his comments that Jones is better in RBBC, and the fact that Jones cant stay healthy

Yeah all of the above plus the foregoing discussion about Rogers never throwing to RBs. He could very well put together a great season but so much has to fall into place. I also wouldn’t be surprised by Dexter Williams cutting in a bit. 

This is where I stand with this, with a lot more concern that Dexter Williams might be as good or better than Jones.  Certainly good enough to cut into his usage, and with the OC's penchant for splitting the load, this looks like something I want no part of at the current prices.  It's the kind of situation I love to invest in all parties cheaply in, ala TEN last year, and cash in if/when there's an injury or change of policy, but the price isn't right here to do that yet.

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Posted (edited)
On 6/27/2019 at 11:03 AM, tkrull said:

There's no Aaron Rodgers glory in throwing dump-offs to RBs.  It would be great if it happens, but I'll believe it when I see it.

If Rodgers really thinks that, that's pretty dumb... especially since it would hurt all of  Rodgers' numbers except ADoT.  I've never heard anyone look at passing stats and say "yeah but a lot of it was dump offs to RBs." 

A yard gained is a yard gained. 

If Rodgers' pride is preventing him from throwing to RBs I wouldn't be that shocked though.  He seems to let his pride interfere with a lot of things from the nuggets that come down to us. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

What about this aren't you feeling, and upon what are you basing your lack of feeling?

Just think he's clearly behind Thielen, and that the Vikings will have way fewer pass attempts. The defense should be slightly better, and the new OC will be much more run heavy this year. We saw that down the stretch Cousins had 34+ attempts in all of the 1st 8 games, only 3 of the final 8. Diggs had 1 game over 77 yards during that stretch. He's a low-end WR2 to me, and that isn't even factoring in his moderate durability issues. 

As for Jones, I think 1500-10 is a reasonable expectation if he plays 16 games. That said, he's in a group with Gurley, D.Freeman, and Fournette, where I think its fair to not only think its possible, but expect, them not to play 16 games. I'd rank them Gurley>>>Jones>Fournette>Freeman. I have Gurley as an end of round 1 guy, and the other 3 as 3rd rounders, with Freeman at the end of the round. All of those guys are ahead of Marlon Mack for me. 

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8 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Just think he's clearly behind Thielen, and that the Vikings will have way fewer pass attempts. The defense should be slightly better, and the new OC will be much more run heavy this year. We saw that down the stretch Cousins had 34+ attempts in all of the 1st 8 games, only 3 of the final 8. Diggs had 1 game over 77 yards during that stretch. He's a low-end WR2 to me, and that isn't even factoring in his moderate durability issues. 

As for Jones, I think 1500-10 is a reasonable expectation if he plays 16 games. That said, he's in a group with Gurley, D.Freeman, and Fournette, where I think its fair to not only think its possible, but expect, them not to play 16 games. I'd rank them Gurley>>>Jones>Fournette>Freeman. I have Gurley as an end of round 1 guy, and the other 3 as 3rd rounders, with Freeman at the end of the round. All of those guys are ahead of Marlon Mack for me. 

I actually hold the opposite opinion that thielen sees a drop in production but to each their own. 

IMO no way Jones gets 1500/10, but anything is possible I guess. You and I differ on a lot of players on this board I'm seeing, but hopefully both of us find success with our teams this year 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

 

If Rodgers' pride is preventing him from throwing to RBs I wouldn't be that shocked though.  He seems to let his pride interfere with a lot of things from the nuggets that come down to us. 

Yep. He has some psych/ego issues I think. Must be the water they're feeding QBs in GB

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I actually hold the opposite opinion that thielen sees a drop in production but to each their own. 

IMO no way Jones gets 1500/10, but anything is possible I guess. You and I differ on a lot of players on this board I'm seeing, but hopefully both of us find success with our teams this year 

I think both Thielen and Diggs will see a drop, but that Thielen will still hold a decent sized lead.

That was 1500 total yards, not rushing if that wasn't clear. I think he's going to be a 3-down RB, I don't see either Williams as a threat at all. I do agree with people saying Dexter could take Jamaal's #2 job though.

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I wonder if Lafleur brings the screen game back to Green Bay.  It speaks to McCarthys stupidity that they hardly ever ran screens.  The pass rush would be killing them and they'd just refuse to run a screen or two to counter it.  Mccarthy did love to run super predictable third and long screens but that's about it... 

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46 minutes ago, travdogg said:

That was 1500 total yards, not rushing if that wasn't clear. I think he's going to be a 3-down RB, I don't see either Williams as a threat at all. I do agree with people saying Dexter could take Jamaal's #2 job though.

Agreed.  The only way I see him not nearing 1500 total is injury.  He only needs to average about 12.5 carries and 2.5 catches to reach that mark.  From week 7 through 14 he was 13.9/3.1 = 17 touches.  During that time he was RB6.  As a runner, he is far and away GB's best, and I think most would agree on that.  Jamaal may be a better pass catcher, but the stats didn't show it.  Last year, they were virtually identical (Aaron - 26/206/1 to Jamaal - 27/210/0). And Aaron was targeted 6 less times.  As for 6th round pick Dexter Williams, I think they only drafted him to save money on jerseys.  I don't care what the coaching staff is saying about RBBC.  When one player is that much better than the others, the team adjusts, exactly as they did last year.

For those claiming injury risk as a reason to steer clear, I can buy that.  Maybe @Dr. Dancan enlighten us on whether Aaron cutting his body fat in half during the offseason will help or hurt his injury riskiness?

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Just now, TheWinz said:

Agreed.  The only way I see him not nearing 1500 total is injury.  He only needs to average about 12.5 carries and 2.5 catches to reach that mark.  From week 7 through 14 he was 13.9/3.1 = 17 touches.  During that time he was RB6.  As a runner, he is far and away GB's best, and I think most would agree on that.  Jamaal may be a better pass catcher, but the stats didn't show it.  Last year, they were virtually identical (Aaron - 26/206/1 to Jamaal - 27/210/0). And Aaron was targeted 6 less times.  As for 6th round pick Dexter Williams, I think they only drafted him to save money on jerseys.  I don't care what the coaching staff is saying about RBBC.  When one player is that much better than the others, the team adjusts, exactly as they did last year.

For those claiming injury risk as a reason to steer clear, I can buy that.  Maybe @Dr. Dancan enlighten us on whether Aaron cutting his body fat in half during the offseason will help or hurt his injury riskiness?

I'd have to think it helps, but hes had two injuries to the same knee and one to the other. All 3 MCL sprains. I dont recall him ever having a major hit to cause them. It makes me wonder why. MCL concerns me as it can also he damaged during ACL tears. So is the ALC next? Probably not a bet I would take, but if he tore one this year you would see zero surprise from me. 

But I do wonder if he plays with such effort that he puts his body at risk. Not that guys need to hold back, but maybe he gives too much. Theres something to be said for knowing when to go down to save your body and when to give that extra effort. Jones out gained the league last year by a significant margin, so I am curious if that comes with an increased chance for injury. 

So I'm not one to think that body fat or muscle va fat really matters when it comes to injury. of course if you're bulking up on "China food" that's an increased risk for issues, but I'm talking more generalized. I think playing style has more to do with it than a few percent body fat. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I'd have to think it helps, but hes had two injuries to the same knee and one to the other. All 3 MCL sprains. I dont recall him ever having a major hit to cause them. It makes me wonder why. MCL concerns me as it can also he damaged during ACL tears. So is the ALC next? Probably not a bet I would take, but if he tore one this year you would see zero surprise from me. 

But I do wonder if he plays with such effort that he puts his body at risk. Not that guys need to hold back, but maybe he gives too much. Theres something to be said for knowing when to go down to save your body and when to give that extra effort. Jones out gained the league last year by a significant margin, so I am curious if that comes with an increased chance for injury. 

So I'm not one to think that body fat or muscle va fat really matters when it comes to injury. of course if you're bulking up on "China food" that's an increased risk for issues, but I'm talking more generalized. I think playing style has more to do with it than a few percent body fat. 

According to my math, he is scheduled for his next MCL in 2027.  He is 24, and has averaged one every 8 yrs, right?  :D

Thanx for your input.  He does run with reckless abandon.  Makes me wonder though - why not just give him the lion's share until he goes down again?  It's not like he's going to have a long healthy career.  Just let him go out there and do what he does best, and keep you fingers crossed.  It seems like GB did that last year.

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3 hours ago, travdogg said:

Just think he's clearly behind Thielen, and that the Vikings will have way fewer pass attempts. The defense should be slightly better, and the new OC will be much more run heavy this year. We saw that down the stretch Cousins had 34+ attempts in all of the 1st 8 games, only 3 of the final 8. Diggs had 1 game over 77 yards during that stretch. He's a low-end WR2 to me, and that isn't even factoring in his moderate durability issues. 

As for Jones, I think 1500-10 is a reasonable expectation if he plays 16 games. That said, he's in a group with Gurley, D.Freeman, and Fournette, where I think its fair to not only think its possible, but expect, them not to play 16 games. I'd rank them Gurley>>>Jones>Fournette>Freeman. I have Gurley as an end of round 1 guy, and the other 3 as 3rd rounders, with Freeman at the end of the round. All of those guys are ahead of Marlon Mack for me. 

Curious to know why you're down on Mack. I have the first overall pick and I am strongly considering going triple rb by taking two of Freeman, Fournette, Chubb, Jones, Mack at the turn depending on who falls. All these guys are in the same tier to me While they all have strengths and weaknesses, they are relatively interchangeable.

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32 minutes ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Curious to know why you're down on Mack. I have the first overall pick and I am strongly considering going triple rb by taking two of Freeman, Fournette, Chubb, Jones, Mack at the turn depending on who falls. All these guys are in the same tier to me While they all have strengths and weaknesses, they are relatively interchangeable.

Jones, Fournette, and Freeman are 3 down RB's in my opinion. I don't see anyone on their teams with the talent they have. Health is their big obstacles.

Chubb is more talented than any of those guys, but he gives way to Duke Johnson on 3rd downs, and who knows if he's better than Hunt, but his talent is so high, that he'd be my pick of that group.

Mack isn't as talented as those guys in my eyes, and also could easily fall into a full blown RBBC. He already doesn't catch passes(Hines) but he's also got a potential GL vulture in Ware, and a potentially more explosive(though very inconsistent) RB in Wilkins behind him. I think everything broke perfectly for him last season. Its possible that he overcome all that, and scores enough TD's to make up for being a non-factor in the passing game. But he's a guy I'm not into until about 40 picks into a draft, when he'll likely be long gone.

I have that group: Chubb>Jones>Fournette>Freeman>Mack. Chubb is probably the only one I'd be happy with at the 2/3 turn.

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7 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

If Rodgers really thinks that, that's pretty dumb... especially since it would hurt all of  Rodgers' numbers except ADoT.  I've never heard anyone look at passing stats and say "yeah but a lot of it was dump offs to RBs." 

A yard gained is a yard gained. 

If Rodgers' pride is preventing him from throwing to RBs I wouldn't be that shocked though.  He seems to let his pride interfere with a lot of things from the nuggets that come down to us. 

A lot of us saw first hand Rodgers having Jones wide open for what would have been a 1st down but instead choose to push the ball downfield into coverage.

I think it is dumb too. It happened too many times for me to say he did not see Jones being open though.

Maybe the coach and Rodgers have gone over these plays and Rodgers changes his stripes, I am skeptical of that. It seemed pretty clear he was not listening to McCarthy anymore. Recently you have Favre chiming in telling the new coach to let Rodgers play his game. Talk about a QB who would go off script all the time, that is who Rodgers learned from.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, travdogg said:

Just think he's clearly behind Thielen,

Stefon Diggs had 4 fewer targets than Adam Thielen in one less game played. Diggs was also limited in others (groin injury) if you pro rate the missed game Diggs would have had 5 more targets than Thielen did. His catch rate was lower than Thielen so he still would have had fewer receptions. As a Vikings fan I don't think that Thielen is clearly ahead of DIggs. It is pretty close.

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and that the Vikings will have way fewer pass attempts.

You are not alone in thinking this. However a improved running game does not necessarily mean fewer passing attempts. If the running game is more effective then the play action passing will benefit, better yards per attempt could be the result even if there are fewer passing attempts, and I am not convinced that they will be fewer.

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The defense should be slightly better,

The schedule may be easier for the Vikings than last year but they lost Sheldon Richardson who created a lot of QB pressures for the Vikings last year. They haven't really replaced him. I have heard good things about Hercules Mata'afa but starter Shamar Stephen is definitely a step down from Richardson. They may be playing DE Griffen and others there more this year to compensate. They haven't done anything to upgrade the defense from my perspective this season.

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and the new OC will be much more run heavy this year. We saw that down the stretch Cousins had 34+ attempts in all of the 1st 8 games, only 3 of the final 8. Diggs had 1 game over 77 yards during that stretch. He's a low-end WR2 to me, and that isn't even factoring in his moderate durability issues. 

I have heard this a lot, but it isn't what Zimmer has been saying. Zimmer wants the offense to be balanced, not run heavy. 

The pass attempts by Cousins at the end of the 2018 are not helping your point about reduced passing attempts at all in my view. The Vikings had early leads and didn't give up points to Detroit twice in that time frame and also against Miami. Otherwise Cousins was throwing it 33 times or more in every game.

While you are correct Diggs only had one game with 77 or more yards in this time frame, he had one game with 76 yards after that, so what? He scored TD in the last 3 games of the season.

It does factor in the durability issues because part of the reason Diiggs does less over this time frame is because he was injured and missed game 9. However DIggs did have 18 targets 13 receptions 126 yards and a TD against Chicago coming off the missed week from injury. His performance yardage wise did slow down in the last 3 weeks with Stefanski as the OC after Flippo was fired, buit he scored in all 3 of those games.

Diggs was WR 10 in PPR leagues last season. WR 12 in standard scoring.

If anything it was more Thielen who faded in the second half of the season, of course he had over 100 yards receiving in the first 8 games

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As for Jones, I think 1500-10 is a reasonable expectation if he plays 16 games. That said, he's in a group with Gurley, D.Freeman, and Fournette, where I think its fair to not only think its possible, but expect, them not to play 16 games. I'd rank them Gurley>>>Jones>Fournette>Freeman. I have Gurley as an end of round 1 guy, and the other 3 as 3rd rounders, with Freeman at the end of the round. All of those guys are ahead of Marlon Mack for me. 

I assume you mean 1500 combined yards?

Seems optimistic but possible. Jones has been too efficient to not get the ball more than he has. Of course if he does get more volume that efficiency will surely go down.

Edited by Biabreakable

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

A lot of us saw first hand Rodgers having Jones wide open for what would have been a 1st down but instead choose to push the ball downfield into coverage.

I think it is dumb too. It happened too many times for me to say he did not see Jones being open though.

Maybe the coach and Rodgers have gone over these plays and Rodgers changes his stripes, I am skeptical of that. It seemed pretty clear he was not listening to McCarthy anymore. Recently you have Favre chiming in telling the new coach to let Rodgers play his game. Talk about a QB who would go off script all the time, that is who Rodgers learned from.

This is what I remember as well. Out of curiosity I did a quick check of RB targets/receptions the last 4 seasons Rodgers played 16 games. When I say quick, I mean back of the napkin so I could have made some calculation errors, but this is at least a rough sketch (FBs are included; they're people too). Listed by targets/receptions:

2018 - 104 / 71 (highest total for a single RB was Williams with 41 / 27)

2016 - 104 / 90 (highest total for a single RB was Montgomery with 56 / 44)

2015 - 92 / 70 (highest total for a single RB was Starks with 53 / 43)

2014 - 90 / 65 (highest total for a single RB was Lacy with 55 / 42)

The obvious caveat is this was all under McCarthy and (as mentioned above) LaFleur says they're going to throw to the RBs more this year. Lewis got 59 receptions (off 67 targets) last season with TN. But, the Titans only had 85 RB targets last year, near the bottom of the league

Edited by DAG

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47 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

we're giving LaFleur WAY too much credit here. 

Well, I think if you've watched the McCarthy offense the last few years there's reasons to be optimistic.  It can't possibly be worse.

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20 hours ago, DAG said:

This is what I remember as well. Out of curiosity I did a quick check of RB targets/receptions the last 4 seasons Rodgers played 16 games. When I say quick, I mean back of the napkin so I could have made some calculation errors, but this is at least a rough sketch (FBs are included; they're people too). Listed by targets/receptions:

2018 - 104 / 71 (highest total for a single RB was Williams with 41 / 27)

2016 - 104 / 90 (highest total for a single RB was Montgomery with 56 / 44)

2015 - 92 / 70 (highest total for a single RB was Starks with 53 / 43)

2014 - 90 / 65 (highest total for a single RB was Lacy with 55 / 42)

The obvious caveat is this was all under McCarthy and (as mentioned above) LaFleur says they're going to throw to the RBs more this year. Lewis got 59 receptions (off 67 targets) last season with TN. But, the Titans only had 85 RB targets last year, near the bottom of the league

You raise an interesting question in regards to what is the average RB targets for an NFL team? Say over the last 3 seasons?

I think that number is going up recently.

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I recall there was a play where Aaron Jones ran out as a receiver and caught a 30ish yard TD in the air. Hopefully they can work more of that in, it looked like he was proficient enough at catching for more than just dump offs. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

You raise an interesting question in regards to what is the average RB targets for an NFL team? Say over the last 3 seasons?

I think that number is going up recently.

Yeah, I was wondering about this myself. I ran across this, which lists RB targets by team and player.

Here's what I have for average RB targets across the past 4 seasons based on their sheets:

2018 - 113

2017 - 116

2016 - 103

2015 - 107

Their total target numbers are a little different than the ones I put in my other post; they're focused on fantasy relevant RBs only, while I included all the RB and FB targets/receptions I could find. 

Over the past 3 years that Rodgers played a full season GB was actually around the league average for RB targets: 19th overall in 2018; 16th overall in 2016; 13th overall in 2015. 

Edited by DAG

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8 hours ago, DAG said:

Yeah, I was wondering about this myself. I ran across this, which lists RB targets by team and player.

Here's what I have for average RB targets across the past 4 seasons based on their sheets:

2018 - 113

2017 - 116

2016 - 103

2015 - 107

Their total target numbers are a little different than the ones I put in my other post; they're focused on fantasy relevant RBs only, while I included all the RB and FB targets/receptions I could find. 

Over the past 3 years that Rodgers played a full season GB was actually around the league average for RB targets: 19th overall in 2018; 16th overall in 2016; 13th overall in 2015. 

Some of these numbers may be a bit misleading when you factor in pass attempts.  For example, you list GB as 19th in RB targets.  In actuality, GB QB's (I say this, because Kizer played a little) had 693 dropbacks.  They had 27 throwaways and were sacked 53 times, leaving 613 targets for players.  The WR's had 384, TE's had 124, and RB's had 105.  So, the RB's accounted for 17% of the targets.  The team just below them for RB targets was MIA with 103.  But, their QB's attempted 178 less passes, giving the RB's a  24% share.  I haven't crunched the data to determine share % for all teams yet, but from what I have so far, I bet GB will be near the bottom for RB's.

A few other neat facts I have come across so far...

- SEA is the only team with a pass/run % under 50 (47 pass/53 run), but they were tied for 5th in passing TD's - now that's efficiency

- GB had the highest pass/run ratio at 68/32, but were 20th in passing TD's - now that's not

- BAL was #1 in total plays (1135) which was 62 more than #2 (NE with 1073).  I found this fact pretty amazing when you consider the next biggest gap was 36 between #'s 30 & 31 (CIN with 938, ARI with 902)

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Some of these numbers may be a bit misleading when you factor in pass attempts.  For example, you list GB as 19th in RB targets.  In actuality, GB QB's (I say this, because Kizer played a little) had 693 dropbacks.  They had 27 throwaways and were sacked 53 times, leaving 613 targets for players.  The WR's had 384, TE's had 124, and RB's had 105.  So, the RB's accounted for 17% of the targets.  The team just below them for RB targets was MIA with 103.  But, their QB's attempted 178 less passes, giving the RB's a  24% share.  I haven't crunched the data to determine share % for all teams yet, but from what I have so far, I bet GB will be near the bottom for RB's.

A few other neat facts I have come across so far...

- SEA is the only team with a pass/run % under 50 (47 pass/53 run), but they were tied for 5th in passing TD's - now that's efficiency

- GB had the highest pass/run ratio at 68/32, but were 20th in passing TD's - now that's not

- BAL was #1 in total plays (1135) which was 62 more than #2 (NE with 1073).  I found this fact pretty amazing when you consider the next biggest gap was 36 between #'s 30 & 31 (CIN with 938, ARI with 902)

Good stuff. Yeah, the page I got those numbers from doesn't include this much context - just raw target numbers.

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On 7/2/2019 at 9:55 AM, TheWinz said:

Some of these numbers may be a bit misleading when you factor in pass attempts.  For example, you list GB as 19th in RB targets.  In actuality, GB QB's (I say this, because Kizer played a little) had 693 dropbacks.  They had 27 throwaways and were sacked 53 times, leaving 613 targets for players.  The WR's had 384, TE's had 124, and RB's had 105.  So, the RB's accounted for 17% of the targets.  The team just below them for RB targets was MIA with 103.  But, their QB's attempted 178 less passes, giving the RB's a  24% share.  I haven't crunched the data to determine share % for all teams yet, but from what I have so far, I bet GB will be near the bottom for RB's.

A few other neat facts I have come across so far...

- SEA is the only team with a pass/run % under 50 (47 pass/53 run), but they were tied for 5th in passing TD's - now that's efficiency

- GB had the highest pass/run ratio at 68/32, but were 20th in passing TD's - now that's not

- BAL was #1 in total plays (1135) which was 62 more than #2 (NE with 1073).  I found this fact pretty amazing when you consider the next biggest gap was 36 between #'s 30 & 31 (CIN with 938, ARI with 902)

I appreciate the leg work on this.

Having a complete list should be useful for answering this question. How much does Rodgers throw to RB compared to other teams?

From that point you could try projecting Jones targets in a scenario where the percentage doesn't change and a scenario where targets to RB increases toward the average which is possible.

If it doesn't happen I think several of us have seen why.. Rodgers just not satisfied with taking the low hanging fruit.

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I think there is another reason Rodgers doesn't dump it off to his backs as much. Though I agree he may have a preference against it, he also has elite pocket presence and footwork. He doesn't have to dump it off as a last resort nearly as often as most QBs. Lots of dumpoffs really are kind of a last resort kind of thing, whereas Rodgers is often able to escape and bounce around to buy more time to look downfield. 

It hurts me to say all that because I'm a Bears fan and #### Rodgers. But I've watched him a lot and own him in a couple spots. I've won multiple ships with him. He buys time really well. It also gets his body crushed occasionally.

For Jones this year I will be curious to see if there are more designed RB passes. But I wouldn't expect any increase in the garden variety checkdown dumpoffs.

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I think there is another reason Rodgers doesn't dump it off to his backs as much. Though I agree he may have a preference against it, he also has elite pocket presence and footwork. He doesn't have to dump it off as a last resort nearly as often as most QBs. Lots of dumpoffs really are kind of a last resort kind of thing, whereas Rodgers is often able to escape and bounce around to buy more time to look downfield. 

It hurts me to say all that because I'm a Bears fan and #### Rodgers. But I've watched him a lot and own him in a couple spots. I've won multiple ships with him. He buys time really well. It also gets his body crushed occasionally.

For Jones this year I will be curious to see if there are more designed RB passes. But I wouldn't expect any increase in the garden variety checkdown dumpoffs.

Yes I suppose this is true. Thinking back to last year though I recalled seeing a lot of incomplete passes down field because he was trying to force things (maybe receivers ie. MVS were running different routes than he expected so that contributed to it too) His completion percentage was 62% though which is only a couple percentage points below his average. The incomplete passes down field  were probably pretty standard. I was just watching it closer last year because I had Jones. So I expect targets to Jones to be quite a bit under the 17% average (thank you theWinz) Rodgers gives to his RB's. 

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Posted (edited)

As pointed out Rodgers is very good at extending plays and improvising on the move. He also practices throwing from awkward positions. He pushes the envelope as far as his willingness to take risks and he is so good he can make a lot of plays that way. The reward may be worth those risks? It is really hard to defend because of these plays being are improvisations.

Some of the dump off opportunities to the RB are earlier in the play and Rodgers may feel he still has time before getting rid of the ball.

According to next gen stats the time to throw for Rodgers was 2.95 seconds. Only Seattle, Houston, Buffalo and the Ravens had higher than this.

So yes Rodgers holds the ball longer than most QB.

Edited by Biabreakable

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Believe it or not, Aaron Rodgers has steadily INCREASED his RB targets throughout his 11 year career.  Sadly for Aaron Jones, the numbers are still near the bottom of the league.  Since Rodgers took over in 2008, no GB RB has over 56 targets in a season.  That's 11 straight years.  14 teams had RB's with over 70 targets last year alone.  Jones doesn't have a chance to see 70 targets.  I would put 60 as his ceiling.

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Quote

Aaron Jones said he dropped his body fat percentage from 11 percent to 5.3 percent this offseason.

He also mentioned that he has been preparing for possible snaps at wide receiver, which makes sense after coach Matt LaFleur said he wanted his running backs to get more involved in the passing game. Jamaal Williams (hamstring) isn't healthy right now, so Jones has a chance to establish himself as the leader in the backfield early in camp. With more receptions headed his way, Jones could be a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2 in shallower leagues.

SOURCE: Packers News

Jul 27, 2019, 4:27 PM ET

 

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nice article on him at The Athletic. Not sure if it is behind the sub wall or not.

https://theathletic.com/1102460/2019/07/29/can-packers-rb-aaron-jones-be-a-difference-maker-in-the-passing-game/

 

Quote

“I just think he’s a dynamic one-cut runner that has some versatility in the passing game,” LaFleur said. “He’s got good hands and I’m sure glad that he’s on our team. For him and a lot of our players, it’s just getting comfortable with our offense and knowing exactly what to do and digging at the details.”

Quote

“He has great hands. Maybe not John Kuhn hands, but he has great hands,” Rodgers said in jest with Kuhn, the former Packers fullback, standing right there. “(Jones) does so many things dynamically in the screen game.”

 

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Maven25 said:

Haven't been hearing much from Jones for news.  What's the pulse on him these days?

He is set to be the primary back this year and I expect him to be somewhere in the middle range (RB16-24)  for NFL starting backs in fantasy but I don't see him as an elite back or someone I want in dynasty.

Edited by az_prof
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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, az_prof said:

He is set to be the primary back this year and I expect him to be somewhere in the middle range (RB16-24)  for NFL starting backs in fantasy but I don't see him as an elite back or someone I want in dynasty.

why not?

btw, just asking, he's someone i'm a little undecided on.

Edited by Tool
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2 minutes ago, Tool said:

why not?

I want all that Aaron Jones smoke in dynasty, personally. 

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37 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I want all that Aaron Jones smoke in dynasty, personally. 

I love to watch him play. He is so explosive. Every time he touches the ball I expect/hope for  a fifty yard run. Of course he only had one of those last year.....but still. He's not a warrior though and I have doubts about his passion to play.

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Posted (edited)

Sell high sometime early season. Thank me later

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Posted (edited)

I sold in one dynasty for a 2020 first that could be top 5 or at least early-ish, and I'd like to move him in 2 others. I think he's very talented but I discussed my reasons for hesitation up-thread. Basically: potential lack of receiving volume (my leagues are ppr); the possibility of a committee; durability; and most important, I think he really has to put it all together this year to prevent GB from looking to upgrade at RB.

Edited by DAG
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Posted (edited)

everyone is gushing over the 2020 rb class... "its loaded with talent." but where do they expect these RBs to go? 

AFC East- Seems set. Miami is the worst one but they have other holes. 

AFC West- Chargers if Gordon's bridge is burned? (but then where does Gordon go?). KC maybe if Williams fails. 

AFC North- seems set

AFC South- Texans would have a need

NFC East- Set

NFC West- 49ers? They have a lot of money tied up at rb but everyone else is set

NFC North- each team but GB has a significant amount invested already

NFC South- Tampa Bay

 

So 6 teams but 1 would likely be where Gordon would go, so really 5.

So 2020 could be looking at:  Eitenne, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Perine, Harris, Akers, Benjamin as possibilities in the first 3 rounds. 

 

GB has spent significant draft capital on defense over the last decade, neglecting the offense. 

 

I dont know how anyone can look at that list above and say it's not likely GB invests in a RB. Even if Jones stays healthy all year and does well, IMO it's a matter when not if. 

You cant say we have a "loaded" 2020 rb class, but have nowhere for these guys to go. 

 

#Sellwhileyoucan

Edited by Dr. Dan

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I dont kbkw how anyone can look at that list above and say it's not likely GB invests in a RB. Even if Jones stays healthy all year and does well, IMO it's a matter when not if.

IIRC, you were also shouting from the rooftops for GB to essentially drop every single WR except Adams and go all in on this class.  That didn't happen, and I don't think this is set in stone either.  Jones could very well fall flat this season, but let's at least see it play out before scraping his remains off our shoes with a pointy stick.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

everyone is gushing over the 2020 rb class... "its loaded with talent." but where do they expect these RBs to go? 

AFC East- Seems set. Miami is the worst one but they have other holes. 

AFC West- Chargers if Gordon's bridge is burned? (but then where does Gordon go?). KC maybe if Williams fails. 

AFC North- seems set

AFC South- Texans would have a need

NFC East- Set

NFC West- 49ers? They have a lot of money tied up at rb but everyone else is set

NFC North- each team but GB has a significant amount invested already

NFC South- Tampa Bay

 

So 6 teams but 1 would likely be where Gordon would go, so really 5.

So 2020 could be looking at:  Eitenne, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Perine, Harris, Akers, Benjamin as possibilities in the first 3 rounds. 

 

GB has spent significant draft capital on defense over the last decade, neglecting the offense. 

 

IMO it's highly likely GB invests in a RB even if Jones stays healthy all year and does well. It's just a matter of where they draft one. 

 

#Sellwhileyoucan

Not disputing that GB could draft a RB (though same was said this year and they essentially didn’t), but I think the same case holds true for at least 10+ teams. On top of that, wise teams typically plug more impactful holes if they have a viable RB, so whether Jones proves a dependable back this season is of critical importance IMO.  If he doesn’t, of course they might draft a different back. He needs to have a healthy season.

As for your assessment, feels an awfully lot like you’re seeing what you want to see.  According to your list, the following are “all set” next offseason while GB isn’t?  Not seeing the rationale...

Buffalo, Miami (but admitted “other holes”), Baltimore, Broncos, Titans, Colts, Jags, Redskins, Falcons

 

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5 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Buffalo, Miami (but admitted “other holes”), Baltimore, Broncos, Titans, Colts, Jags, Redskins, Falcons

Add Washington (Guice and Love are both giant question marks right now) and Seattle (Carson/Penny, eh...)

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

Buffalo, Miami (but admitted “other holes”), Baltimore, Broncos, Titans, Colts, Jags, Redskins, Falcons

 

 

5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Add Washington (Guice and Love are both giant question marks right now) and Seattle (Carson/Penny, eh...)

Yep, Washington already on list.  

I think the fact that Carson has been efficient and that they burned a 1st on Penny means they’re unlikely to burn a really high pick on RB in 2020.  But that’s the funny thing about RBs, you just never know when injury strikes or draft value in terms of BPA makes RB the pick.

Edited by SayWhat?
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7 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Not disputing that GB could draft a RB (though same was said this year and they essentially didn’t), but I think the same case holds true for at least 10+ teams. On top of that, wise teams typically plug more impactful holes if they have a viable RB, so whether Jones proves a dependable back this season is of critical importance IMO.  If he doesn’t, of course they might draft a different back. He needs to have a healthy season.

As for your assessment, feels an awfully lot like you’re seeing what you want to see.  According to your list, the following are “all set” next offseason while GB isn’t?  Not seeing the rationale...

Buffalo, Miami (but admitted “other holes”), Baltimore, Broncos, Titans, Colts, Jags, Redskins, Falcons

 

Buffalo: just invested a high pick into Singletary 

Miami: Maybe. As I said, many holes. 

Baltimore: just invested into Hill

Broncos: Theyd be fools to draft a RB when they have Lindsay and Freeman. the later I expect to do quite well. 

Titans: I think they resign Henry. If Henry flops I would add them to the list, yes

Colts: I agree here actually. I just didn't want to get raked across the coals. Im  ot a Marlon Mack 3 down back guy. That being said I would see them taking a qb before a rb. 

Jags: No... I think Fournette sticks another year. But if he flops I would agree. 

Redskins: Nope I think they trust in Guice, and they have Love if they want to go RBBC. If they give up on them itll be 2021

Falcons: Freeman may be getting up there in age but hes still got enough left. I would see Atlanta going qb before rb, but I would put them in the maybe category. 

So assuming Henry flops, I would add 3 more. impossible to predict now, I can admit that. 

I'd say all of the teams you've named either have RBs who have proven far more than Jones, or have invested a significant draft pick into the rb position in 2019. 

17 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

IIRC, you were also shouting from the rooftops for GB to essentially drop every single WR except Adams and go all in on this class.  That didn't happen

Yup. And many of the guys I listen to talk about how much of a mistake that was. Their wrs are a joke aside from Adam's. MVS has potential to be a decent NFL wr but IMO the days of them having 2 great fantasy options at wr are over for a while. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

Yep, Washington already on list.  

I think the fact that Carson has been efficient and that they burned a 1st on Penny means they’re unlikely to burn a really high pick on RB in 2020.  But that’s the funny thing about RBs, you just never know when injury strikes or draft value in terms of BPA makes RB the pick.

so a first on Penny (who by all accounts looks like a bust) means they wont burn more on another rb but a 2nd on guice (who is unknown) means let's give up after a redshirt season?

Edited by Dr. Dan

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No use getting completely off topic, so I'd continue this elsewhere if needed.

 

 

I think Jones owners should be very weary about the future of Jones being the rb1a on this team. 

He has shown homerun ability, but also hasnt been able to carry the full load. He has only carried >15 attempts 4 times in 24 games. averaging 8.9 carries/game. 

That's not workhorse back material. 

 

IMO it's more likely in 2020 Jones goes back to a 1b role getting 8 carries a game for that "homerun" play. 

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He has shown homerun ability, but also hasnt been able to carry the full load. He has only carried >15 attempts 4 times in 24 games. averaging 8.9 carries/game. 

That's not workhorse back material. 

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that GB is ever going to be a team that wants or needs a workhorse back while Rodgers is still standing. 

With that in mind, it’s far more reasonable to refer to RB touches rather than carries. 

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