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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
And wait, SayWhat?Dr. Dan said:
Yes, if Guice flat sucks and/or gets injured again this year, I think it’s FAR more likely that Washington would go RB early than it is that Seattle would with Carson and Penny (assuming both are healthy). I don’t think that’s a very hot take.Dr. Dan said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Indianapolis should be looking at one of those RBs, Jax maybe if Fournette doesn’t step up and Tennessee if they let Henry walk.Dr. Dan said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
The most Jones ever rushed for was 750ish. Every back aside from Drake and Guice have rushed significantly more than that. Henry, Fournette have had a 1000 yard season.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Rodgers is not the guy he once was
However, I agree, GB is best RBBC and that's what Lafleur likes to run. Chances are they draft a guy next year who Jones can compliment, not the other way around
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Who is?
His mentality is unchanged, at least for this season. They’re going to keep throwing it all over the place the same way they have his entire career.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yep. And Lafluer likes to run rbbc, thinks Jones is best in a RBBC, yet theres talk of him being a possible rb1 in fantasy this offseason in this thread. Cant be true both ways.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Even if the 2020 stud RBs all fall in the draft or somehow went totally undrafted they would still get signed and have the ability to prove themselves in training camp and preseason.
I think a lot of teams will be investing in RB next year. Even if the first round talents go in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, if they are really that talented you won't be able to keep the talent off the field.
I think a lot of teams will be investing in RB next year. Even if the first round talents go in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, if they are really that talented you won't be able to keep the talent off the field.
Kamara/Ingram were RBBC. Both were RB1 or on the cusp. It can be true but not necessarily probable.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Ok. I think were done here... lol
You're trying to win an argument by presenting an obscure example to make a point. I'm trying to paint realistic outcome.
So which is more likely... GB surges to a NO level of dominance in their offense, and aaron jones becomes Alvin Kamara and GB has two top 12 rbs in fantasy... or not. I'd place my wager firmly on not.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
He also broke down with a season ending injury as a result. But I guess that could not be important to some.
Sure, and that's obviously the biggest concern with him, as is with many players. I'm still looking for that crystal ball to predict those things.
But he led the league in ypc at 5.5 and scored 8 rushing tds in a wonky season. I, for one, am excited to see what the kid can do if he can put it all together and stay on the field.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah he had great production in his limited work. The Tyler Lockett of RBs! Was very efficient.
Well then a 1,000 yard season objectively proves that, I guess.
The most Jones ever rushed for was 750ish. Every back aside from Drake and Guice have rushed significantly more than that. Henry, Fournette have had a 1000 yard season.
Leonrard Fournette and his season of 80 yards per game at 3.9ypc and Derrick Henry with his 66 yards per game at 4.9ypc have proven far more than Jones with his 61 yards per game at 5.5ypc. By the way, take a look at Henry’s first 2 years and comp them to Jones’. For reference; Phillip Lindsay 69 yards per game at 5.4ypc.Again, durability and reliability is what Jones has yet to prove. If he can’t this year, he’s likely replaced. No doubt. But if he can stay healthy, he’s already proven every bit as much as the likes of Fournette, Drake, Henry, and Mack on the field.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I didnt know he was retiring but I did know he wasnt rehabbing well and both he and the team were frustrated
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Do we really know what LaFleur likes to run though? His experience as a true signal caller/owner of the offense is exactly one season. You can point to previous stint in ATL (2 RB’s productive) and LAR (Gurley)...I just don’t know if you can assume tendency here with him at this juncture.
Not disputing that for the majority of 2018, TEN was RBBC...but if you look at that situation, the FO had just ridiculously overpaid Dion Lewis so there was some motivation to execute in that direction.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
One of the problems is that the 2020 class is so loaded. It looks like there will be 3rd and 4th round RBs with 1st and 2nd round talent available to teams.
The Packers are probably going to have some elite RBs staring at them in the 3rd, 4th, and maybe even 5th rounds.
The Packers are probably going to have some elite RBs staring at them in the 3rd, 4th, and maybe even 5th rounds.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was wondering that as well. I thought I’d read the he likes a bell-cow back.
Seems like TEN wasn’t a choice - just what he had to work with.
I like AJones as a low-end RB1 with upside. He’s typically going around the same spot as DWill. I feel like it’s a coin flip.
Jones already beat out his only competition once, both have injury concerns. I think either is a fine 3rd round selection, especially if one goes WR/WR.
I’ve been trying to figure this out as a factor in selling vs holding in a couple leagues. I’m concerned about a committee myself but the idea does seem to be grounded in only a small body of evidence. In this press conference for GB he explicitly states a preference for a committee if the personnel justifies it. But I’ve had a tough time locating much more. Packers fans may be able to help w additional examples . His play calling history is very limited so I think it’s hard to project anything specific.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think we as FF managers get a little hung up on semantics.
Every team uses a committee. Every single one. They all have a breather back or a short yardage back or a receiving back or some other specialty back.
this will affect FF to different degrees, obviously.
So start checking the boxes:
is your target a GL back? Ok, that’s a big one.
Is your target a receiving back/3rd down guy who can pass protect? That’s another big one.
lastly, how talented is the competition? If it’s a significant threat it could have immediate impact & develop into a true timeshare.
Now that all said, I’d like to make a comparison to Kamara/Murray (or Ingram, more specifically)
if the purpose of running a committee of some sort is intended to benefit AJones & allow him to not break down over the course of the season, then maybe it’s addition by subtraction. He’s an efficient runner, and does more with less, so he could be at his most productive by sharing the load. From a FF perspective, so long as he’s getting ~70% of the carries, ~30% of the RB receptions & 90% of the GL touches, he’s still a fine low-end RB1.
i don’t see Williams as a significant threat to usurp AJones, so he’s a more affordable handcuff than some of the hype guys like Thompson behind DWill.
and while talking value, in the 3rd I think AJones is fairly priced.
There are other backs in the 3rd - I’m probably a little higher on Carson, but a lot of that has to do with trusting Pete Carroll, & I don’t trust Pete Carroll at all. But I’m also not a big Penny believer, so I’d probably take Carson over AJones. Maybe DWill or Fournette too. But I could see an argument being made for any of them in the 3rd. I don’t see any as a bad selection.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
This whole thread has become one huge confirmation bias. Since when are 3rd and 4th round picks "high" picks, and since when do those levels of investment preclude looking for an upgrade the following year? Some of those 3rd and 4th rounders can easily remain valuable role players even after picking another RB. That entire list is just one big opinion puff in support of the poster's narrative to justify trading the guy. I love how Singletary and Justice freaking Hill are lock-in workhorses already while a guy that has actually played a couple years in the league and looked really good doing it is a castoff after two years.
As if it's even possible to determine how a team will feel about a guy two weeks from now (Dont's Foreman cut TWICE now, free agency still to come with players changing teams, retirement, injuries) let alone with another season to play.
Laughable.
As if it's even possible to determine how a team will feel about a guy two weeks from now (Dont's Foreman cut TWICE now, free agency still to come with players changing teams, retirement, injuries) let alone with another season to play.
Laughable.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
funny. you suggest something and its discarded as laughable. when you're right on someone it's sad.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
it's not about being right or justifying anything. It's thefact that there are a lot of really good rb prospects in the 2020 draft. There are few teams with bad rb situations but more with average to below average situations. GB would be in the average, possibly below average category. for arguments sake I'll say average. theyd be foolish to not dip their toes in, especially when some really really good prospects will be there round 3 and possibly 4; guys who probably would have went round 2 in 2019
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yes, but a lot has changed. he couldnt get through yet another 16 games, showing me he is a good rbbc rb but not really a bell cow. he could prove that wrong this year but I will gladly admit that I was wrong to this point in stating that he can be a bell cow.
Jones is probably best in low doses. Hes a super efficient back who has some fantasy value, but is probably a better NFL weapon than fantasy. I'm not saying hes a bust; what I'm saying is that he is possibly at his highest value right now, so he is a sell high.
Doesnt matter if you're a guy's biggest advocate in a forum of strangers or not. fantasy football is won by buying guys low and selling high. Aaron Jones' value, imo, is destined to be significantly lower 9 months, even 3 months from now. I think if he gets hurt again or shows he cant be "the guy," then you no longer can get the price you can get today.
I don't know how anyone can look at the GB backfield (and the rest of the team) and the 2020 class and not think that theres a good chance GB takes one early
I love the guy, I just think the sell high point is about to pass by. If anyone disagrees, that's fine. doesn't make either of our opinions laughable.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
There is also the chance he is used as part of a RBBC and missed 3 games and still gains value. His TD upside is pretty high in Green Bay. If the new offense is able to get Rogers back to his 2016 form then there are going to be 50+ TDs available in that offense.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Im fairly high on Jones this yr, but there are a lot of valid pts here as far as his longterm viability dynasty or otherwise. Im on the fence on keeping Jones as a 7th in half ppr vs Lockett in 10th, Engram in 12th, Godwin in 14th...I was leaning Jones but we can only keep guys for 3 yrs. Thinking Godwin might be my best longterm (3yr) bet
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Hasn't Jones had 3 serious knee injuries and he is or was hurt in camp again? not exactly sturdy and durable is he? given his history of injuries I'd be more inclined to let someone else grab him. And with Rodgers seemingly on the back 9 of his career, there's a legit chance he too gets hurt again - he's already going through back problems. I dont see either guy playing all 16 games this season.It's hard to get all excited about the 2019 Packers.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
I think Jones is a league winner this year. If he can stay on the field.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
It's all of these guys at the low end second round early third at RB.
Damien Williams
Leonard Fournette
Aaron Jones
Derrick Henry
Marlin Mack - well...?
Chris Carson - moving up
Devonta Freeman - 4th rounder, or back to form?
Sony Micheal - on the edit
Giving the choice who's your top 3, your top pick if they all came to you?
Damien Williams
Leonard Fournette
Aaron Jones
Derrick Henry
Marlin Mack - well...?
Chris Carson - moving up
Devonta Freeman - 4th rounder, or back to form?
Sony Micheal - on the edit
Giving the choice who's your top 3, your top pick if they all came to you?
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tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I was all in on Aaron Jones last year; owned him in 3 of my 4 leagues and reaped the benefits. Just had my first draft, and early in the 3rd I took Carson over Jones. I agree with most of what Dr Dan has posted w/re to the possibility that Jones is at his best when used sparingly as opposed to being fed like a bell cow. I think the question is more open on Carson, and with Penny again looking disappointing, the door is wide open for a monster touch year in that Seattle offense for Carson. Carson may break down as well under a massive workload, but I think he’s more likely to be a league winner in 2019 than Jones.
shadyridr
Footballguy
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Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Looks like a lot more love for Damien Williams > Carson by a nose, Fournette or Jones
These are all fair game picks at the turn in a 12 teamer...
These are all fair game picks at the turn in a 12 teamer...
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Tonight is going to be huge for him.
If he breaks out vs the Bears defense, Jones pumpers declare victory. If he gets shut down, the Jones skeptics will declare victory.
If he breaks out vs the Bears defense, Jones pumpers declare victory. If he gets shut down, the Jones skeptics will declare victory.
boilerdave
Footballguy
If he breaks out tonight I’ll be happy obviously
if he gets shut down I’ll remain optimistic that good games against more favorable matchups will be coming
if he gets shut down I’ll remain optimistic that good games against more favorable matchups will be coming
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
benching jones for conner and bell.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I don't trust the Packers coaching staff at all. tough matchup.rookie Hc opening night, primetime, at chicago,a potential SB contender?
nah I'll pass.
nah I'll pass.
I’m not expecting a huge game, but I’ve got him in my lineup where I have him. I feel like he gets in the end zone and finishes with something around 85-90 total yards.
Arancione
Footballguy
Not sure what to make of Jones and the Packers tonight, thinking of flexing in E Sanders on Monday (+1PPR) instead, but that's admittedly a bit of a homer pick which always scares me (Sanders also got his other ankle worked on when they did the achilles - and he's been looking quicker than ever in practice).
Picked up Jones in the 3rd round of a 12 team league, so some investment in him, just probably going to have to see how the Packers use him before I trust him this year.
Picked up Jones in the 3rd round of a 12 team league, so some investment in him, just probably going to have to see how the Packers use him before I trust him this year.
