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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Buffalo: just invested a high pick into Singletary  A 3rd isn’t exactly an impediment to drafting a stud RB

Miami: Maybe. As I said, many holes. 

Baltimore: just invested into Hill A 4th even less so

Broncos: Theyd be fools to draft a RB when they have Lindsay and Freeman. the later I expect to do quite well.  An UDFA that may/may not hold up and by all accounts a bust of a 3rd round pick 

Titans: I think they resign Henry. If Henry flops I would add them to the list, yes  Agreed

Colts: I agree here actually. I just didn't want to get raked across the coals. Im  ot a Marlon Mack 3 down back guy. That being said I would see them taking a qb before a rb. 

Jags: No... I think Fournette sticks another year. But if he flops I would agree. Agreed, same situation as Titans with Henry

Redskins: Nope I think they trust in Guice, and they have Love if they want to go RBBC. If they give up on them itll be 2021

Falcons: Freeman may be getting up there in age but hes still got enough left. I would see Atlanta going qb before rb, but I would put them in the maybe category.  They’re almost a lock to be a team to grab a RB next year IMO

So assuming Henry flops, I would add 3 more. impossible to predict now, I can admit that. 

I'd say all of the teams you've named either have RBs who have proven far more than Jones, or have invested a significant draft pick into the rb position in 2019.  Will just have to (strongly) disagree with what a “significant draft pick” is.  Hint: It’s not a 3rd or 4th because if you think Devin Singletary is preventing a team from taking a 1st round RB, we’ll definitely not see eye to eye on this one.

Outside of possibly Denver (Lindsay) and Atlanta (Freeman), none of the other backs have “proven far more than Jones.”  Proven similarly to Jones maybe, but there’s not a single back that you’ve listed that’s done anything other than flash on a very limited basis.  Fournette has draft capital going for him, but he’s been pretty uninspiring on top of being unable to stay healthy.  Drake, Henry, Mack, Guice, etc? All in the same boat as Jones.  

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

Colts: I agree here actually. I just didn't want to get raked across the coals. Im  ot a Marlon Mack 3 down back guy. That being said I would see them taking a qb before a rb. 

 

And wait, SayWhat? :unsure:

40 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

so a first on Penny (who by all accounts looks like a bust) means they wont burn more on another rb but a 2nd on guice (who is unknown) means let's give up after a redshirt season?

Yes, if Guice flat sucks and/or gets injured again this year, I think it’s FAR more likely that Washington would go RB early than it is that Seattle would with Carson and Penny (assuming both are healthy).  I don’t think that’s a very hot take.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

AFC South- Texans would have a need

Indianapolis should be looking at one of those RBs, Jax maybe if Fournette doesn’t step up and Tennessee if they let Henry walk.

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13 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Outside of possibly Denver (Lindsay) and Atlanta (Freeman), none of the other backs have “proven far more than Jones.”  Proven similarly to Jones maybe, but there’s not a single back that you’ve listed that’s done anything other than flash on a very limited basis.  Fournette has draft capital going for him, but he’s been pretty uninspiring on top of being unable to stay healthy.  Drake, Henry, Mack, Guice, etc? All in the same boat as Jones.  

:confused:

The most Jones ever rushed for was 750ish. Every back aside from Drake and Guice have rushed significantly more than that. Henry, Fournette have had a 1000 yard season. 

 

 

 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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20 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that GB is ever going to be a team that wants or needs a workhorse back while Rodgers is still standing. 

With that in mind, it’s far more reasonable to refer to RB touches rather than carries. 

Rodgers is not the guy he once was

However, I agree, GB is best RBBC and that's what Lafleur likes to run. Chances are they draft a guy next year who Jones can compliment, not the other way around 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Rodgers is not the guy he once was

Who is?  

His mentality is unchanged, at least for this season. They’re going to keep throwing it all over the place the same way they have his entire career. 

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Just now, tangfoot said:

Who is?  

His mentality is unchanged, at least for this season. They’re going to keep throwing it all over the place the same way they have his entire career. 

Yep. And Lafluer likes to run rbbc, thinks Jones is best in a RBBC, yet theres talk of him being a possible rb1 in fantasy this offseason in this thread. Cant be true both ways. 

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Even if the 2020 stud RBs all fall in the draft or somehow went totally undrafted they would still get signed and have the ability to prove themselves in training camp and preseason. 

I think a lot of teams will be investing in RB next year.  Even if the first round talents go in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, if they are really that talented you won't be able to keep the talent off the field. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yep. And Lafluer likes to run rbbc, thinks Jones is best in a RBBC, yet theres talk of him being a possible rb1 in fantasy this offseason in this thread. Cant be true both ways. 

Kamara/Ingram were RBBC. Both were RB1 or on the cusp. It can be true but not necessarily probable. 

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5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Kamara/Ingram were RBBC. Both were RB1 or on the cusp. It can be true but not necessarily probable. 

Ok. I think were done here... lol

 

You're trying to win an argument by presenting an obscure example to make a point. I'm trying to paint realistic outcome. 

 

So which is more likely... GB surges to a NO level of dominance in their offense, and aaron jones becomes Alvin Kamara and GB has two top 12 rbs in fantasy... or not. I'd place my wager firmly on not.

Edited by Dr. Dan
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I mean, he did average 20 points per game from weeks 8-14 last season, and that was battling the baffling usage of McCarthy.  I think it's reasonable to expect his target totals to increase slightly.  I don't feel like him finishing as a backend RB1 is crazy at all.

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

I mean, he did average 20 points per game from weeks 8-14 last season, and that was battling the baffling usage of McCarthy.  I think it's reasonable to expect his target totals to increase slightly.  I don't feel like him finishing as a backend RB1 is crazy at all.

He also broke down with a season ending injury as a result. But I guess that could not be important to some. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He also broke down with a season ending injury as a result. But I guess that could not be important to some. 

Sure, and that's obviously the biggest concern with him, as is with many players.  I'm still looking for that crystal ball to predict those things.

But he led the league in ypc at 5.5 and scored 8 rushing tds in a wonky season.  I, for one, am excited to see what the kid can do if he can put it all together and stay on the field.  

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Sure, and that's obviously the biggest concern with him, as is with many players.  I'm still looking for that crystal ball to predict those things.

But he led the league in ypc at 5.5 and scored 8 rushing tds in a wonky season.  I, for one, am excited to see what the kid can do if he can put it all together and stay on the field.  

Yeah he had great production in his limited work. The Tyler Lockett of RBs! Was very efficient. 

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9 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

:confused:

The most Jones ever rushed for was 750ish. Every back aside from Drake and Guice have rushed significantly more than that. Henry, Fournette have had a 1000 yard season. 

 

 

 

Well then a 1,000 yard season objectively proves that, I guess.   :confused: Leonrard Fournette and his season of 80 yards per game at 3.9ypc and Derrick Henry with his 66 yards per game at 4.9ypc have proven far more than Jones with his 61 yards per game at 5.5ypc. By the way, take a look at Henry’s first 2 years and comp them to Jones’.  For reference; Phillip Lindsay 69 yards per game at 5.4ypc.

Again, durability and reliability is what Jones has yet to prove.  If he can’t this year, he’s likely replaced.  No doubt.  But if he can stay healthy, he’s already proven every bit as much as the likes of Fournette, Drake, Henry, and Mack on the field.  

Edited by SayWhat?
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On 8/20/2019 at 9:12 PM, SayWhat? said:
On 8/20/2019 at 8:26 PM, Dr. Dan said:

 

Colts: I agree here actually. I just didn't want to get raked across the coals. Im  ot a Marlon Mack 3 down back guy. That being said I would see them taking a qb before a rb. 

 

And wait, SayWhat? :unsure:

;)

 

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1 hour ago, Skeletore Eh said:

Very sad

I didnt know he was retiring but I did know he wasnt rehabbing well and both he and the team were frustrated 

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I didnt know he was retiring but I did know he wasnt rehabbing well and both he and the team were frustrated 

Bumping your own posts.... very sad

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I am not sure what exactly the convo in here but I think it is clear he has some issues breaking down a bit and is best used like Kamara. 10-12 carries, 4-6 receptions a game. He can be a low end RB1 with those numbers as long they include looks around the endzone. 

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On 8/20/2019 at 10:24 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Yep. And Lafluer likes to run rbbc, thinks Jones is best in a RBBC, yet theres talk of him being a possible rb1 in fantasy this offseason in this thread. Cant be true both ways. 

Do we really know what LaFleur likes to run though?  His experience as a true signal caller/owner of the offense is exactly one season.  You can point to previous stint in ATL (2 RB’s productive) and LAR (Gurley)...I just don’t know if you can assume tendency here with him at this juncture.

Not disputing that for the majority of 2018, TEN was RBBC...but if you look at that situation, the FO had just ridiculously overpaid Dion Lewis so there was some motivation to execute in that direction.  

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One of the problems is that the 2020 class is so loaded.  It looks like there will be 3rd and 4th round RBs with 1st and 2nd round talent available to teams. 

The Packers are probably going to have some elite RBs staring at them in the 3rd, 4th, and maybe even 5th rounds. 

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5 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Do we really know what LaFleur likes to run though?  His experience as a true signal caller/owner of the offense is exactly one season.  You can point to previous stint in ATL (2 RB’s productive) and LAR (Gurley)...I just don’t know if you can assume tendency here with him at this juncture.

Not disputing that for the majority of 2018, TEN was RBBC...but if you look at that situation, the FO had just ridiculously overpaid Dion Lewis so there was some motivation to execute in that direction.  

I was wondering that as well. I thought I’d read the he likes a bell-cow back. 

Seems like TEN wasn’t a choice - just what he had to work with. 

I like AJones as a low-end RB1 with upside. He’s typically going around the same spot as DWill. I feel like it’s a coin flip. 

Jones already beat out his only competition once, both have injury concerns. I think either is a fine 3rd round selection, especially if one goes WR/WR. 

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I was wondering that as well. I thought I’d read the he likes a bell-cow back. 

Seems like TEN wasn’t a choice - just what he had to work with. 

I like AJones as a low-end RB1 with upside. He’s typically going around the same spot as DWill. I feel like it’s a coin flip. 

Jones already beat out his only competition once, both have injury concerns. I think either is a fine 3rd round selection, especially if one goes WR/WR. 

I’ve been trying to figure this out as a factor in selling vs holding in a couple leagues. I’m concerned about a committee myself but the idea does seem to be grounded in only a small body of evidence. In this press conference for GB he explicitly states a preference for a committee if the personnel justifies it. But I’ve had a tough time locating much more. Packers fans may be able to help w additional examples . His play calling history is very limited so I think it’s hard to project anything specific. 

Edited by DAG
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9 minutes ago, DAG said:

I’ve been trying to figure this out as a factor in selling vs holding in a couple leagues. I’m concerned about a committee myself but the idea does seem to be grounded in only a small body of evidence. In this press conference for GB he explicitly states a preference for a committee if the personnel justifies it. But I’ve had a tough time locating much more. Packers fans may be able to help w additional examples . His play calling history is very limited so I think it’s hard to project anything specific. 

I think we as FF managers get a little hung up on semantics. 

Every team uses a committee. Every single one. They all have a breather back or a short yardage back or a receiving back or some other specialty back.

this will affect FF to different degrees, obviously. 

So start checking the boxes: 

is your target a GL back? Ok, that’s a big one. 

Is your target a receiving back/3rd down guy who can pass protect?  That’s another big one.

lastly, how talented is the competition? If it’s a significant threat it could have immediate impact & develop into a true timeshare. 

Now that all said, I’d like to make a comparison to Kamara/Murray (or Ingram, more specifically) 

if the purpose of running a committee of some sort is intended to benefit AJones & allow him to not break down over the course of the season, then maybe it’s addition by subtraction. He’s an efficient runner, and does more with less, so he could be at his most productive by sharing the load. From a FF perspective, so long as he’s getting ~70% of the carries, ~30% of the RB receptions & 90% of the GL touches, he’s still a fine low-end RB1.

i don’t see Williams as a significant threat to usurp AJones, so he’s a more affordable handcuff than some of the hype guys like Thompson behind DWill.

and while talking value, in the 3rd I think AJones is fairly priced. 

There are other backs in the 3rd - I’m probably a little higher on Carson, but a lot of that has to do with trusting Pete Carroll, & I don’t trust Pete Carroll at all. But I’m also not a big Penny believer, so I’d probably take Carson over AJones. Maybe DWill or Fournette too. But I could see an argument being made for any of them in the 3rd. I don’t see any as a bad selection. 

 

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This whole thread has become one huge confirmation bias.  Since when are 3rd and 4th round picks "high" picks, and since when do those levels of investment preclude looking for an upgrade the following year?  Some of those 3rd and 4th rounders can easily remain valuable role players even after picking another RB.  That entire list is just one big opinion puff in support of the poster's narrative to justify trading the guy.  I love how Singletary and Justice freaking Hill are lock-in workhorses already while a guy that has actually played a couple years in the league and looked really good doing it is a castoff after two years.

As if it's even possible to determine how a team will feel about a guy two weeks from now (Dont's Foreman cut TWICE now, free agency still to come with players changing teams, retirement, injuries) let alone with another season to play.

Laughable.

Edited by Hankmoody
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funny. you suggest something and its discarded as laughable. when you're right on someone it's sad. 

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it's not about being right or justifying anything. It's thefact that there are a lot of really good rb prospects in the 2020 draft. There are few teams with bad rb situations but more with average to below average situations. GB would be in the average, possibly below average category. for arguments sake I'll say average. theyd be foolish to not dip their toes in, especially when some really really good prospects will be there round 3 and possibly 4; guys who probably would have went round 2 in 2019

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

it's not about being right or justifying anything. It's thefact that there are a lot of really good rb prospects in the 2020 draft. There are few teams with bad rb situations but more with average to below average situations. GB would be in the average, possibly below average category. for arguments sake I'll say average. theyd be foolish to not dip their toes in, especially when some really really good prospects will be there round 3 and possibly 4; guys who probably would have went round 2 in 2019

Weren’t you a big Jones guy last yr? Am I misremembering?

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Weren’t you a big Jones guy last yr? Am I misremembering?

Yes, but a lot has changed. he couldnt get through yet another 16 games, showing me he is a good rbbc rb but not really a bell cow. he could prove that wrong this year but I will gladly admit that I was wrong to this point in stating that he can be a bell cow. 

Jones is probably best in low doses. Hes a super efficient back who has some fantasy value, but is probably a better NFL weapon than fantasy. I'm not saying hes a bust; what I'm saying is that he is possibly at his highest value right now, so he is a sell high. 

Doesnt matter if you're a guy's biggest advocate in a forum of strangers or not. fantasy football is won by buying guys low and selling high. Aaron Jones' value, imo, is destined to be significantly lower  9 months, even 3 months from now. I think if he gets hurt again or shows he cant be "the guy," then you no longer can get the price you can get today. 

I don't know how anyone can look at the GB backfield (and the rest of the team) and the 2020 class and not think that theres a good chance GB takes one early

I love the guy, I just think the sell high point is about to pass by. If anyone disagrees, that's fine. doesn't make either of our opinions laughable. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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40 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes, but a lot has changed. he couldnt get through yet another 16 games, showing me he is a good rbbc rb but not really a bell cow. he could prove that wrong this year but I will gladly admit that I was wrong to this point in stating that he can be a bell cow. 

Jones is probably best in low doses. Hes a super efficient back who has some fantasy value, but is probably a better NFL weapon than fantasy. I'm not saying hes a bust; what I'm saying is that he is possibly at his highest value right now, so he is a sell high. 

Doesnt matter if you're a guy's biggest advocate in a forum of strangers or not. fantasy football is won by buying guys low and selling high. Aaron Jones' value, imo, is destined to be significantly lower  9 months, even 3 months from now. I think if he gets hurt again or shows he cant be "the guy," then you no longer can get the price you can get today. 

I don't know how anyone can look at the GB backfield (and the rest of the team) and the 2020 class and not think that theres a good chance GB takes one early

I love the guy, I just think the sell high point is about to pass by. If anyone disagrees, that's fine. doesn't make either of our opinions laughable. 

There is also the chance he is used as part of a RBBC and missed 3 games and still gains value. His TD upside is pretty high in Green Bay. If the new offense is able to get Rogers back to his 2016 form then there are going to be 50+ TDs available in that offense. 

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Im fairly high on Jones this yr, but there are a lot of valid pts here as far as his longterm viability dynasty or otherwise. Im on the fence on keeping Jones as a 7th in half ppr vs Lockett in 10th, Engram in 12th, Godwin in 14th...I was leaning Jones but we can only keep guys for 3 yrs. Thinking Godwin might be my best longterm (3yr) bet

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Hasn't Jones had 3 serious knee injuries and he is or was hurt in camp again? not exactly sturdy and durable is he? given his history of injuries I'd be more inclined to let someone else grab him. And with Rodgers seemingly on the back 9 of his career, there's a legit chance he too gets hurt again - he's already going through back problems. I dont see either guy playing all 16 games this season.It's hard to get all excited about the 2019 Packers. 

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It's all of these guys at the low end second round early third at RB. 

Damien Williams

Leonard Fournette

Aaron Jones 

Derrick Henry

Marlin Mack - well...?

Chris Carson - moving up

Devonta Freeman - 4th rounder, or back to form?

Sony Micheal - on the edit

Giving the choice who's your top 3, your top pick if they all came to you?

Edited by Team Smokin'

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9 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

It's all of these guys at the low end second round early third at RB. 

Damien Williams

Leonard Fournette

Aaron Jones 

Derrick Henry

Marlin Mack - well...?

Chris Carson - moving up

Devonta Freeman - 4th rounder, or back to form?

Sony Micheal - on the edit

Giving the choice who's your top 3, your top pick if they all came to you?

Damien Williams, Chris Carson and Aaron Jones. In that order. 

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I was all in on Aaron Jones last year; owned him in 3 of my 4 leagues and reaped the benefits.  Just had my first draft, and early in the 3rd I took Carson over Jones.  I agree with most of what Dr Dan has posted w/re to the possibility that Jones is at his best when used sparingly as opposed to being fed like a bell cow.  I think the question is more open on Carson, and with Penny again looking disappointing, the door is wide open for a monster touch year in that Seattle offense for Carson.  Carson may break down as well under a massive workload, but I think he’s more likely to be a league winner in 2019 than Jones. 

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51 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Damien Williams, Chris Carson and Aaron Jones. In that order. 

Williams

Carson

Fournette

Jones

Michel

Freeman

Henry

Mack

would be my order.

Edited by shadyridr
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Looks like a lot more love for Damien Williams > Carson by a nose, Fournette or Jones

These are all fair game picks at the turn in a 12 teamer...

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Tonight is going to be huge for him. 

If he breaks out vs the Bears defense, Jones pumpers declare victory.  If he gets shut down, the Jones skeptics will declare victory. 

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If he breaks out tonight I’ll be happy obviously 

if he gets shut down I’ll remain optimistic that good games against more favorable matchups will be coming 

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15 minutes ago, boilerdave said:

If he breaks out tonight I’ll be happy obviously 

if he gets shut down I’ll remain optimistic that good games against more favorable matchups will be coming 

this is a reasonable approach. but the SP isnt reasonable. 

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I know he's got a TOUGH matchup tonight, but would anyone bench him for Guice or Miles Sanders? PPR dynasty? I actually was planning on starting him. 

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8 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I know he's got a TOUGH matchup tonight, but would anyone bench him for Guice or Miles Sanders? PPR dynasty? I actually was planning on starting him. 

I'd start him over those 2

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 I don't trust the Packers coaching staff at all. tough matchup.rookie Hc opening night, primetime, at chicago,a potential SB contender? 

nah I'll pass.  

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3 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Tonight is going to be huge for him. 

If he breaks out vs the Bears defense, Jones pumpers declare victory.  If he gets shut down, the Jones skeptics will declare victory. 

I’m not expecting a huge game, but I’ve got him in my lineup where I have him. I feel like he gets in the end zone and finishes with something around 85-90 total yards. 

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Not sure what to make of Jones and the Packers tonight, thinking of flexing in E Sanders on Monday (+1PPR) instead, but that's admittedly a bit of a homer pick which always scares me (Sanders also got his other ankle worked on when they did the achilles - and he's been looking quicker than ever in practice).

Picked up Jones in the 3rd round of a 12 team league, so some investment in him, just probably going to have to see how the Packers use him before I trust him this year.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

I know he's got a TOUGH matchup tonight, but would anyone bench him for Guice or Miles Sanders? PPR dynasty? I actually was planning on starting him. 

I’m starting him over Guice 

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