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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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5 hours ago, Milkman said:

Sucks. Always did. 

Yep, he isn’t built to be a real Rb. Too many people on this board liked Jones and that was the sign. He was on my do not draft list

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It's a long way off and a lot can change but maybe worth noting now - Bears at GB Week 15.

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GB early season run D schedule may not be kind to A. Jones.

Looking forward to taking advantage of the panic and buying low during weeks 1 - 4.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I agree, its not realistic for him to never leave the field. I just saw Jamaals number called too many times and hes still not good

Jones had 14 touches to Williams 7 and both of William's receptions were not designed plays but Rodgers flipping the ball to him in desperation. Williams appearing to be on the field a lot had more to do with the Packers just not running very many plays due to an inept offense in the first quarter and the Bears stellar defense. This looked more like the case of a backup RB spelling the starting RB not a RBBC. Now I'm not saying this won't be some form of RBBC - most backfields are nowadays - but it's typical over-reaction and posters trying to be funny (and failing) and throwing out snarky one-liner "I told you so-s". Those posters are insufferable.

Williams looked terrible and Jones did not look great either, although he did get in rhythm in the second half. This offense will need to get in synch a little before we will have a completer picture but those thinking that Melvin Gordon will be on the next plane to GB are delusional. For better or worse this is the Packers' backfield give or take some depth additions. 

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Jones had 14 touches to Williams 7 and both of William's receptions were not designed plays but Rodgers flipping the ball to him in desperation. Williams appearing to be on the field a lot had more to do with the Packers just not running very many plays due to an inept offense in the first quarter and the Bears stellar defense. This looked more like the case of a backup RB spelling the starting RB not a RBBC. Now I'm not saying this won't be some form of RBBC - most backfields are nowadays - but it's typical over-reaction and posters trying to be funny (and failing) and throwing out snarky one-liner "I told you so-s". Those posters are insufferable.

Williams looked terrible and Jones did not look great either, although he did get in rhythm in the second half. This offense will need to get in synch a little before we will have a completer picture but those thinking that Melvin Gordon will be on the next plane to GB are delusional. For better or worse this is the Packers' backfield give or take some depth additions. 

I agree, more time is needed. I agree Gordon is unlikely and it's pure wishful thinking on my part; he would significantly upgrade this offense, but it wont happen

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11 minutes ago, BradtheAg said:

Not going to overreact to anything I saw last night.  Except Trubisky, he is definitely trash

:goodposting: I would add that ARob is great, on the borderline of elite. Other than that, agree completely. Last nights game is a full ignore for me.

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2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

:goodposting: I would add that ARob is great, on the borderline of elite. Other than that, agree completely. Last nights game is a full ignore for me.

He's going to help win a lot of PPR leagues this year.  Horrible QB or not, a guy getting 9 targets per game (13 more last night) to finish last year shouldn't have been going in the 7th round.

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2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

:goodposting: I would add that ARob is great, on the borderline of elite. Other than that, agree completely. Last nights game is a full ignore for me.

Yeah...Robinson seemed to be all they had for anything beyond 8 yards from the LOS.

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36 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Yeah...Robinson seemed to be all they had for anything beyond 8 yards from the LOS.

And the thing about bad QBs is that they tend to lock onto one receiver, which is what we saw last night. Robinson is in for a ton of targets this year.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Jones had 14 touches to Williams 7 and both of William's receptions were not designed plays but Rodgers flipping the ball to him in desperation. Williams appearing to be on the field a lot had more to do with the Packers just not running very many plays due to an inept offense in the first quarter and the Bears stellar defense. This looked more like the case of a backup RB spelling the starting RB not a RBBC. Now I'm not saying this won't be some form of RBBC - most backfields are nowadays - but it's typical over-reaction and posters trying to be funny (and failing) and throwing out snarky one-liner "I told you so-s". Those posters are insufferable.

Williams looked terrible and Jones did not look great either, although he did get in rhythm in the second half. This offense will need to get in synch a little before we will have a completer picture but those thinking that Melvin Gordon will be on the next plane to GB are delusional. For better or worse this is the Packers' backfield give or take some depth additions. 

Excellent write up. My concern going forward is Rogers and adams connecting but that is for a different thread. 

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23 minutes ago, montana_grizzly_bears said:

Excellent write up. My concern going forward is Rogers and adams connecting but that is for a different thread. 

Rodgers will find Adams when he actually has time to set his feet and throw 

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I wouldn't use last night to judge an GB offensive players.  That Chicago defense is far and away the best in the league.....Im surprised Rodgers made it through the game.  Id imagine he's pretty sore today.

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Every smart offensive coach out there will pass the ball far more than they run it vs the Bears.  If the Bears D has a weakness, it's through the air.  

I wouldn't read very much into the numbers from this game.  

Here are my takeaways:

The Bears Defense is really good, maybe better than last year with the development of Roquan Smith.

The Packers Defense is good, maybe top 10.

Mitch Trubisky was really bad.  I don't think we can write him off completely yet, but unless his play improves dramatically, the Bears will be in the market for a QB next offseason.  

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3 hours ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

Every smart offensive coach out there will pass the ball far more than they run it vs the Bears.  If the Bears D has a weakness, it's through the air.   

Rodgers completed 60% (18 of 30) for 203 yards, which is less than 6.8 yards/attempt and that's if you don't subtract the 37 yards lost on five sacks (4.7 Y/A). Those are Joey Harringtonesque numbers.

If that's a weakness, sign me up.

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More worried about the packers oline than the talent/scheme of anyone else on the team. They better hope the bears d are way better than anyone else. No time to throw, no room to run. 

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

More worried about the packers oline than the talent/scheme of anyone else on the team. They better hope the bears d are way better than anyone else. No time to throw, no room to run. 

They are

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5 hours ago, Chaka said:

Rodgers completed 60% (18 of 30) for 203 yards, which is less than 6.8 yards/attempt and that's if you don't subtract the 37 yards lost on five sacks (4.7 Y/A). Those are Joey Harringtonesque numbers.

If that's a weakness, sign me up.

Am I not aware of a third option in calling offensive plays?  There's Run/Pass and something else?  They've gotta call something, and its pick your poison with the Bears D.  They are weaker vs the pass than the run.  

 

Packers ran Jones and Williams 18 times for 39 yards.  That's 2.16 yards/attempt.  Less than half of the 4.7y/a they gained when calling pass plays.  

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1 hour ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

Am I not aware of a third option in calling offensive plays?  There's Run/Pass and something else?  They've gotta call something, and its pick your poison with the Bears D.  They are weaker vs the pass than the run.  

 

Packers ran Jones and Williams 18 times for 39 yards.  That's 2.16 yards/attempt.  Less than half of the 4.7y/a they gained when calling pass plays.  

The disparity between yards/rush and yards/attempt is typically around half (obviously with a large range).

But to say the Bears run d >>>>>>pass dbbased on Thursday is very premature. 

Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest to ever play, and that is an incontrovertible fact. Aaron Jones may just be a schlub.

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I'll join the "too early too tell" chorus, though the concerns that several of us had before the season materialized in some form in this game:

1. the committee possibility (I agree that it's generally good news that Jones out touched Williams and I would expect that to continue, but they were also switching them out a decent bit)

2. involvement in the passing game 

The second part is on my mind especially because we still need to see this team/Rogers break precedent on this front (as several people established up-thread), and because it might have made some sense to dump the ball off or design some screens given the Bears' pressure.

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Quote

Zachary Jacobson @ZachAJacobson

Aaron Jones had 14 carries in the first-half today. The most he had in a game last season was 17.

 

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Aaron Jones rushed 23 times for 116 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' Week 2 win over the Vikings, adding four receptions for 34 additional yards.

Jones still ceded 12 touches to Jamaal Williams, but it did not matter on a day where the Packers were all the way #established in the running game. Jones' first touch was a pitch that he turned into a 15-yard carry. Aaron Rodgers started out scorching hot but gradually succumbed to Mike Zimmer's elite passing defense. Jones never stopped moving the chains, ensuring a Packers victory after his brutal Week 1 against the Bears. Even with Williams involved, there is every reason to believe Jones is a high-end RB2 who can get to RB1 status. Green Bay's run defense schedule does not lighten up with Vic Fangio's Broncos in Week 3.

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 5:37 AM, hardcoredx said:

Yep, he isn’t built to be a real Rb. Too many people on this board liked Jones and that was the sign. He was on my do not draft list

23/116/1, 4/34 isn't a real RB!

 

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On 9/16/2019 at 11:53 PM, tjnc09 said:

23/116/1, 4/34 isn't a real RB!

 

Real rbs break tackles and are built to last. Watch more football, I went thru this same nonsense last year with Alex Collins. Jones will be relegated to backup once Gb figures this out 

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3 hours ago, hardcoredx said:

Real rbs break tackles and are built to last. Watch more football, I went thru this same nonsense last year with Alex Collins. Jones will be relegated to backup once Gb figures this out 

hardcoredx also doesn't draft Kamara/Mccaffery/Ekeler

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Coach Matt LaFleur said he wants to "even up" the touches between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

Williams just won't go away. Jones gashed the Vikings for a 23-116-1 rushing line with 4-34 as a receiver, but LaFleur still won't commit to him as a lead back. We're starting to wonder about LaFleur as a coach. He did this with Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis last season in Tennessee before realizing way too late in the year that Henry should be a workhorse. Jones is the far greater talent, but his coach apparently wants to hold him back in order to "keep him fresh." Jones will be an RB2 as a massive eight-point home favorite against Denver.

RELATED: 

Jamaal Williams

SOURCE: Ryan Wood on Twitter

Sep 18, 2019, 12:52 PM ET

 

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

Coach Matt LaFleur said he wants to "even up" the touches between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

Williams just won't go away. Jones gashed the Vikings for a 23-116-1 rushing line with 4-34 as a receiver, but LaFleur still won't commit to him as a lead back. We're starting to wonder about LaFleur as a coach. He did this with Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis last season in Tennessee before realizing way too late in the year that Henry should be a workhorse. Jones is the far greater talent, but his coach apparently wants to hold him back in order to "keep him fresh." Jones will be an RB2 as a massive eight-point home favorite against Denver.

RELATED: 

Jamaal Williams

SOURCE: Ryan Wood on Twitter

Sep 18, 2019, 12:52 PM ET

if only there were warning signs....

 

On 2/28/2019 at 9:21 AM, Faust said:

New Packers coach Matt LaFleur said a "committee approach" is the most effective when it comes to Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones.

In other words, LaFleur doesn't believe either Williams or Jones is a bellcow runner. Both have shown the ability to put up big numbers when given the chance to be No. 1 backs when the other has been injured, particularly Williams down the stretch last season when Jones was on I.R. But Williams is a plodding type, and Jones was called out for his conditioning by Gm Brian Gutekunst on Wednesday. It doesn't sound like LaFleur is willing to commit to one running back.

RELATED: 

Aaron Jones

SOURCE: Michael Cohen on Twitter

Feb 27, 2019, 11:54 AM

the coach said this in February, yet people are surprised how much William's is involved. I will admit, Williams looks better under Lafluer than he ever looked under McCarthy. 

Jones could still have RB2 appeal but he was being sold as a potential low RB1 a month ago... it was his absolute sell high point.

He went from in April worth "16" on Hinderlys dynasty value chart to "22" in August (equal to a high 2020 1st). He was a "21" in September, and with this RBBC October stands to be a drop further. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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wait, Jones hasn't gotten hurt yet? ah, just wait for it, we're only in week 3..as a whole, the Packers are deplorable on offense:

26th in PF, 29th in Yards, 28th in 1st downs, 26th in passing yards ( so much for Rodgers being 'great' this year huh?), 28th in NY/A passing, 19th in rush yards, 27th in YPA rushing, 30th in scoring percentage. it's just a matter of time before the 'real' GB offense shows it's ugly face, it's in a nosedive. yeah they're 2-0 but they're hanging on the edge.eventually, they'll fall off.. 

Jones looks to be to be the RB version of RG3 -suuuuuuper skinny, oft-injured guy who just can't take the hits. the perfect  'Sell HIGH!' candidate.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

if only there were warning signs....

 

the coach said this in February, yet people are surprised how much William's is involved. I will admit, Williams looks better under Lafluer than he ever looked under McCarthy. 

Jones could still have RB2 appeal but he was being sold as a potential low RB1 a month ago... it was his absolute sell high point.

He went from in April worth "16" on Hinderlys dynasty value chart to "22" in August (equal to a high 2020 1st). He was a "21" in September, and with this RBBC October stands to be a drop further. 

So far Jones has 36 carries and Williams has 14 - and each have five receptions. So 41 touches for Jones versus 19 for Williams. Do people not expect a backup RB to get any touches at all?

And Williams is averaging 2 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per reception - when has he looked good?

All this talk of RBBC seems way overblown here.

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13 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

wait, Jones hasn't gotten hurt yet? ah, just wait for it, we're only in week 3..as a whole, the Packers are deplorable on offense:

26th in PF, 29th in Yards, 28th in 1st downs, 26th in passing yards ( so much for Rodgers being 'great' this year huh?), 28th in NY/A passing, 19th in rush yards, 27th in YPA rushing, 30th in scoring percentage. it's just a matter of time before the 'real' GB offense shows it's ugly face, it's in a nosedive. yeah they're 2-0 but they're hanging on the edge.eventually, they'll fall off.. 

Jones looks to be to be the RB version of RG3 -suuuuuuper skinny, oft-injured guy who just can't take the hits. the perfect  'Sell HIGH!' candidate.

 

 

Who have the Packers played in weeks 1 and 2 again?

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

So far Jones has 36 carries and Williams has 14 - and each have five receptions. So 41 touches for Jones versus 19 for Williams. Do people not expect a backup RB to get any touches at all?

And Williams is averaging 2 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per reception - when has he looked good?

All this talk of RBBC seems way overblown here.

Some people are just dying to be right in their dislike for Jones

Its ..... odd

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3 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Some people are just dying to be right in their dislike for Jones

Its ..... odd

The person accused of disliking Jones actually told me to pick him up a year or two back and said he was easily the most talented of the GB backs. Dr. Dan said that to me, only I didn't care for the situation, so didn't. 

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But, but, but the coach said they want to even out touches...so HA(!)...told you to sell Jones.  Guess what?  When the bullets are flying, the HC is going to give the ball to his best players rather than try to give an even amount of touches to a player that’s been clearly inferior.  

Don’t get me wrong, there is a chance that Jones isn’t the long term solution in GB.  But this “told ya, the warning signs were there” business after Jones just dropped 150 yards on 27 touches against a good Vikings D is silly talk.  

 

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5 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

But, but, but the coach said they want to even out touches...so HA(!)...told you to sell Jones.  Guess what?  When the bullets are flying, the HC is going to give the ball to his best players rather than try to give an even amount of touches to a player that’s been clearly inferior.  

Don’t get me wrong, there is a chance that Jones isn’t the long term solution in GB.  But this “told ya, the warning signs were there” business after Jones just dropped 150 yards on 27 touches against a good Vikings D is silly talk.  

 

I only have Jone in one dynasty league and would admit there's surely a chance that the Packers upgrade next offseason - but sometimes you just have to roll the dice and take the points during the current season. You can't sell everyone.

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

So far Jones has 36 carries and Williams has 14 - and each have five receptions. So 41 touches for Jones versus 19 for Williams. Do people not expect a backup RB to get any touches at all?

And Williams is averaging 2 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per reception - when has he looked good?

All this talk of RBBC seems way overblown here.

I think this is an indication that LaFluer wants to use Williams more. Also, Williams is in the game during crucial situations. 

Yes, his stats arent as impressive on paper but wr need to look at the situations Wliams is playing in. He is getting some short yardage opportunities which will deflate his ypc. If you dont watch the games and only look at box scores I can see how one would think there is nothing to see here.

And yes, Williams has looked better than he ever did under McCarthy. He looked dreadful under McCarthy. Under LaFluer he looks serviceable (never said he looks good)

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I only have Jone in one dynasty league and would admit there's surely a chance that the Packers upgrade next offseason - but sometimes you just have to roll the dice and take the points during the current season. You can't sell everyone.

I see no harm in this and it's a great strategy. IMO Jones is a good win now option, if he can stay healthy. so far so good. you're right, cant sell everyone and you cant always be looking to build. I am fairly new to dynasty and most of ly teams are either going through a rebuild or just coming out of one, so that's where my mind will go when evaluating players. 

I take a stock market approach and try to get as much out of my guys as I can and sell when the market is high, if I can afford to. Its caught me some grief, but then if I'm right it still gets me some grief. perhaps if people understand my approach to dynasty it would result in less grief.... but this is the SP. 

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26 minutes ago, rockaction said:

The person accused of disliking Jones actually told me to pick him up a year or two back and said he was easily the most talented of the GB backs. Dr. Dan said that to me, only I didn't care for the situation, so didn't. 

Yes. I remember him touting Jones last yr. But it seems everytime a blurb comes out against Jones he kinda goes into “I told you so “ mode

🤷‍♂️

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think this is an indication that LaFluer wants to use Williams more. Also, Williams is in the game during crucial situations. 

Yes, his stats arent as impressive on paper but wr need to look at the situations Wliams is playing in. He is getting some short yardage opportunities which will deflate his ypc. If you dont watch the games and only look at box scores I can see how one would think there is nothing to see here.

And yes, Williams has looked better than he ever did under McCarthy. He looked dreadful under McCarthy. Under LaFluer he looks serviceable (never said he looks good)

You realize they have only played two games and one of them was the stand alone opening night kickoff, right?

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

You realize they have only played two games and one of them was the stand alone opening night kickoff, right?

no one looked good vs CHI. William's looked better than he has during the preseason as well. He always seemer to have cement shoes on... looks to have shed those this year.He wont unseat Jones, but he is earning carries

Edited by Dr. Dan

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5 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Yes. I remember him touting Jones last yr. But it seems everytime a blurb comes out against Jones he kinda goes into “I told you so “ mode

🤷‍♂️

I guess I wouldnt find the need to if I didnt get grief for taking stances that end up correct. if we could have more constructive conversations rather than smug, sarcastic comments then I wouldnt find the itch to do so. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

no one looked good vs CHI. William's looked better than he has during the preseason as well. He always seemer to have cement shoes on... looks to have shed those this year.He wont unseat Jones, but he is earning carries

Is this just an “eye test” kinda thing? Because to me the cement still appears to be there, with his 2.0 ypc. 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I take a stock market approach and try to get as much out of my guys as I can and sell when the market is high, if I can afford to. Its caught me some grief, but then if I'm right it still gets me some grief. perhaps if people understand my approach to dynasty it would result in less grief.... but this is the SP. 

I think you get grief (to the extent that you do) because you're like a flag in the wind. You talk guys up, then once you trade them away, you bash them as if they've always sucked. Sometimes you can trade away guys even knowing they'll still produce if it helps your teams in other ways. You're not the only one that does this - and I'm sure I have as well. 

You're also very quick to run into threads and say "I told you so" or "I was right" sometimes even prematurely like here based on a coach's quote and not you know.....actual results.

Anyway I'm not trying to bash you further - just trying to let you know why you may perceive that you get grief. Everyone sort of does - it's the internet afterall.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think you get grief (to the extent that you do) because you're like a flag in the wind. You talk guys up, then once you trade them away, you bash them as if they've always sucked.

Not intention but if that's the perception, it's noted. 

I liked Jones a lot but 2 season ending knee injuries in 2 seasons and williams being a bust had led me to believe GB would go in a different direction after this year. it was a hed decision to trade him, however it did land me Mixon and Diggs (although so far this year they have been bad). it was a hard decision, but that team couldnt have afforded to keep Jones and see him drafted over or injured. 

On the plus side, Gute loves him. hes the one drafting players. It's very possible they go draft another 4th or 5th rounder who will compliment Jones only, the way they want William's to. 

 

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Is GB trying to prevent him from being a stud rb, ala Bell or Gordon, which could lead to a similar contract issue? 

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Jones runs with a style that will get hurt often.  He runs at full speed in traffic without accounting for defenders.  He fights for every yard even if it puts his health in danger.  So while he is in the lineup, it's great for Green Bay and FF owners.  But if he wants to actually last in the league, he needs to take the yards available to him and then look for ways to get to the ground safely.  Other smaller RBs like Kamara and McCaffrey find a way to balance the explosion with their own health.  Maybe it is related to job security?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I guess I wouldnt find the need to if I didnt get grief for taking stances that end up correct. if we could have more constructive conversations rather than smug, sarcastic comments then I wouldnt find the itch to do so. 

I’ll be honest, and I’m not trying to be smug. I’m not exactly sure what your stance on Jones is.

You loved him, saying he should be the man. 

Leading up to the season you were hating him some days and just meh other days.

You admit he looks pretty good so far but when something negative comes out about him “you warned everyone this would happen”

Idk where you are on him anymore. It seems to change often

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27 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I’ll be honest, and I’m not trying to be smug. I’m not exactly sure what your stance on Jones is.

You loved him, saying he should be the man. 

Leading up to the season you were hating him some days and just meh other days.

You admit he looks pretty good so far but when something negative comes out about him “you warned everyone this would happen”

Idk where you are on him anymore. It seems to change often

I explain above

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