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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Lol

That isn't really something to laugh at considering JWill got hurt taking carries as the starter on the first drive of the game. 

Jones owners taking victory laps over the doubters shouldn't forgot they he basically was not even starting before Williams was injured. People were not wrong to be concerned.  The coaching staff obviously was and maybe still is. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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26 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

That isn't really something to laugh at considering JWill got hurt taking carries as the starter on the first drive of the game. 

Jones owners taking victory laps over the doubters shouldn't forgot they he basically was not even starting before Williams was injured. People were not wrong to be concerned.  The coaching staff obviously was and maybe still is. 

I especially liked the part about him not being strong enough and incapable of breaking tackles. 

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he was very impressive bouncing some runs outside.  showed really good speed to the corner.

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3 hours ago, joffer said:

he was very impressive bouncing some runs outside.  showed really good speed to the corner.

 

While also driving the pile up the gut with his legs. He showed it all yesterday

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6 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

That isn't really something to laugh at considering JWill got hurt taking carries as the starter on the first drive of the game. 

Jones owners taking victory laps over the doubters shouldn't forgot they he basically was not even starting before Williams was injured. People were not wrong to be concerned.  The coaching staff obviously was and maybe still is. 

I believe that they were both in the backfield to start the game.  Being the "starter" (the guy on the field the first play)  really doesn't matter much for RB in the NFL.  Touches are much more important and Jones has been getting more touches than Williams (even though it probably isn't as big a disparity as Jones owners would like). 

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54 minutes ago, Gally said:

I believe that they were both in the backfield to start the game.  Being the "starter" (the guy on the field the first play)  really doesn't matter much for RB in the NFL.  Touches are much more important and Jones has been getting more touches than Williams (even though it probably isn't as big a disparity as Jones owners would like). 

Snaps are more important than touches when it comes to predicting fantasy points and probably more indicitve of coaches preferences. 

Williams had 39, 45, and then 61 percent of the snaps in the first three games before getting hurt in the 4th.

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Snaps are more important than touches when it comes to predicting fantasy points and probably more indicitve of coaches preferences. 

Williams had 39, 45, and then 61 percent of the snaps in the first three games before getting hurt in the 4th.

Just keep moving the goalposts,  Tolstoy.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Scrapps said:

Just keep moving the goalposts,  Tolstoy.

Just keep watching the scoreboard and chasing points. Nevermind the underlying indicators...

Sometimes bad process yields good results in this game.  Especially for the short term. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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Is the consensus now that Jones has the RB position locked up in GB until he gets hurt again?  Anyone interested in owning Williams anymore?

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2 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Is the consensus now that Jones has the RB position locked up in GB until he gets hurt again?  Anyone interested in owning Williams anymore?

Unfortunately for us Jones owners, Lafluer does not care about fantasy football. Only real football. And so far whatever he's doing is working. They are 4-1. He wants to split the carries to keep his guys healthy  so they will be effective all year. I think we just have to accept this and be content with Jones being a RB2 moving forward.

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14 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

Unfortunately for us Jones owners, Lafluer does not care about fantasy football. Only real football. And so far whatever he's doing is working. They are 4-1. He wants to split the carries to keep his guys healthy  so they will be effective all year. I think we just have to accept this and be content with Jones being a RB2 moving forward.

The mix should change a little in Jones favor, especially with Williams coming off a bad concussion. 

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9 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

The mix should change a little in Jones favor, especially with Williams coming off a bad concussion. 

Will be interesting to see of their roster moves as well.  Dexter Williams has been on the 53 but inactive and he isn't ready.  They promoted Carson over him to play with JWilliams out.

Will Carson be waived?  Dexter?  Keep 4 on the 53 now worried of injuries?

O agree the split may shift to Homes a bit...60-65/40-35 seems about right to keep him healthy.

Carson looked like a capable backup as well in case of injury to Williams (he isnt a Jones fill in though)

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16 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Snaps are more important than touches when it comes to predicting fantasy points and probably more indicitve of coaches preferences. 

Williams had 39, 45, and then 61 percent of the snaps in the first three games before getting hurt in the 4th.

Snaps do not get you fantasy points.  Kyle Juszczyk leads the 49ers RB's in snaps but is far from fantasy production.  Touches are more predictive of fantasy relevance.  Ideally you want both snap count and touches and typically they are tied together but just going on snap counts isn't the best way.   For this case in the three games they were both fully healthy Jones outsnapped Williams 103 to 96 (basically the same) but outouched him 52 to 33 (carries + receptions). 

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6 hours ago, Gally said:

Snaps do not get you fantasy points.  Kyle Juszczyk leads the 49ers RB's in snaps but is far from fantasy production.  Touches are more predictive of fantasy relevance.  Ideally you want both snap count and touches and typically they are tied together but just going on snap counts isn't the best way.   For this case in the three games they were both fully healthy Jones outsnapped Williams 103 to 96 (basically the same) but outouched him 52 to 33 (carries + receptions). 

For RBs, Ive read thst snaps is more predictive long term than touches, but I'm sure we could both dig up good arguements for either.  You're correct that they are very closely correlated.  Obviously you can't get a touch if you're not on the field so they have a direct relationship. 

To be clear, I am not saying JWill is better than Jones or anything silly like that.  What I'm saying is JWill doesn't look very good, so it's concerning that the coaches don't seem to think Jones deserves a larger share of the opportunities. It was of additional concern that Jones' snap share seemed to be going in the wrong direction right before the injury.  I think it was good process to see that as a  red flag and have concerns about Jones before his post Williams injury breakout.  If Williams is back this week I think the coaches may go back to the committee, for health maintenance or whatever other reasons they have. 

I would sell, but I am generally distrustful of Jones for a bunch of different reasons. 

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On 10/8/2019 at 2:43 PM, kittenmittens said:

For RBs, Ive read thst snaps is more predictive long term than touches, but I'm sure we could both dig up good arguements for either.  You're correct that they are very closely correlated.  Obviously you can't get a touch if you're not on the field so they have a direct relationship. 

To be clear, I am not saying JWill is better than Jones or anything silly like that.  What I'm saying is JWill doesn't look very good, so it's concerning that the coaches don't seem to think Jones deserves a larger share of the opportunities. It was of additional concern that Jones' snap share seemed to be going in the wrong direction right before the injury.  I think it was good process to see that as a  red flag and have concerns about Jones before his post Williams injury breakout.  If Williams is back this week I think the coaches may go back to the committee, for health maintenance or whatever other reasons they have. 

I would sell, but I am generally distrustful of Jones for a bunch of different reasons. 

I am looking to potentially sell high on Jones after his huge week this past week so realistically what range of WRs is his current value? 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, ffbowler300 said:

I am looking to potentially sell high on Jones after his huge week this past week so realistically what range of WRs is his current value? 

I am only closely in tune with dynasty value. 

In dynasty I'd be aiming high for Juju or Godwin.  Obviously you would have to add something significant to Jones, but maybe not a ton after this week?  Also if you like Beckham... I dont... 

Straight up probably the Golladay range? 

 

Edited by kittenmittens

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Posted (edited)
On 10/7/2019 at 8:20 PM, az_prof said:

Is the consensus now that Jones has the RB position locked up in GB until he gets hurt again?  Anyone interested in owning Williams anymore?

He's available in my 12 team ppr deep bench league. If healthy he should have stand alone value and is a nice lotto ticket if Jones gets hurt given the Packers have turned into a run heavy team. The Packers schedule gets a heck of a lot easier the rest of the way until the end of the season.  I think he'd be a decent bye week fill in flex and a solid flex/low end number two if Jones got hurt.

Edited by Mongidig

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Dynasty--I was rejected last week offering straight up Jones for AJ Brown. To the guy in 2nd place, too, so he could use the points. I was surprised.

After this past game, I've already been rejected straight up for Calvin Ridley. Thinking of offering for Sutton, but that owner is rebuilding and devy-heavy. Debating going back to the AJ Brown well after Jones showed out, but now I'm wondering if I should just take the Jones points as long as they last and move on. 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

I am only closely in tune with dynasty value. 

In dynasty I'd be aiming high for Juju or Godwin.  Obviously you would have to add something significant to Jones, but maybe not a ton after this week?  Also if you like Beckham... I dont... 

Straight up probably the Golladay range? 

 

OK that sounds about right. I am hoping to flip him in a potential deal for OBJ or JuJu. Thanks for the response!!

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Fwiw Jobes’ playoff sched week’s 15-16 is Chi & Min.

Did you see what Jacobs did to the bears d last week? I think they were exposed.

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Sometimes I really hate this hobby

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Should’ve traded Jones this past week I guess. Lafleur was showing tendency for this 2 back crap before Willians got hurt. There goes a great RB2, value poof. And that damned fumble :hot:.

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Quote

Aaron Jones rushed 11 times for 47 yards and caught 4-of-7 targets for 13 yards in the Packers' Week 6 win over the Lions.

Jones had a nightmare evening, losing a first-quarter fumble and then dropping a wide-open, would-be 33-yard touchdown at the goal line as he ran free down the seam. Jones was then pulled off the field after the drop before Jamaal Williams cashed in with a short touchdown catch. At the end of the night, Williams out-touched Jones 18-15 and out-gained him 136-60 while scoring the lone touchdown between the two. It was a massive letdown after Jones rushed for four touchdowns while Williams was sidelined in Week 5. Jones will be a strong RB2 next week against the Raiders, but this backfield has weekly hot-hand situation written all over it.

Oct 15, 2019, 12:05 AM ET

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Faust said:

Jones had a nightmare evening, losing a first-quarter fumble and then dropping a wide-open, would-be 33-yard touchdown at the goal line as he ran free down the seam. Jones was then pulled off the field after the drop before Jamaal Williams cashed in with a short touchdown catch.

#######it.

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I doubt Jones owners will bite but now might be a good time to try and trade for him.

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Seems like a reverse the clock time to two years ago when Williams was playing very well and holding off Jones, who had problems staying healthy but was the superior talent.

Granted, it’s a different coaching regime, but if you believe that talent eventually wins out, Jones owners should probably be a bit patient. The big issue is how much it remains a true RBBC this year while both are healthy.

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Quote

Aaron Jones rushed 12 times for 50 yards in the Packers' Week 7 win over the Raiders, adding four carries for 33 additional yards and a touchdown.

It was a complete reversal from Jones' Week 6, where he got out-touched 18-15 by Jamaal Williams. This time, Jones won the touch battle 16-7. After dropping a passing score against the Lions, Jones reeled in a 21-yarder in the back of the end zone vs. the Raiders, making a nice grab on a back-shoulder pass. Although he has inherent volatility in Green Bay's two-back backfield, Jones will be oozing upside for Week 8 in Kansas City.

Oct 20, 2019, 5:25 PM ET

 

 

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On 9/21/2019 at 6:00 AM, hardcoredx said:

Seriously comparing garbage like Jones to Kamara and Mccaffrey? 

 

 

You hate hate to see it.... lmao newb

He's outscoring Kamara by about 10 ppg now.  Hate to see it.

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Just now, rickyg said:

Not as durable as cmc.  

Insert every back in the damn league in that statement. 

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Just now, Iceman03 said:

Insert every back in the damn league in that statement. 

Agreed.  But that’s one big reason why cmc hw is not.  He gets nicked a ton and has never finished a season yet.  

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Guy seems to get hit hard multiple times every game. Seems to hit the ground awful hard too, it’s odd.

Seems like I’m holding my breath waiting for him to get up several times per game 

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Traded Amari for him this week.  Good week to do it I guess.  But can’t say I wasn’t pissed at the half when they were talking x-rays and being questionable to return. 

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Quote

Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 67 yards and caught 7-of-8 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' Week 8 win over the Chiefs.

Jones was involved heavily early, scoring on the Packers opening drive. He had a second touchdown that was called back and vultured by Jamaal Williams. Jones later scored on a 67-yard screen where he outran the entire Chiefs defense. He missed part of the second quarter with a shoulder injury but looked fine the rest of the night. At the season’s halfway point, Jones is on pace for 1,642 total yards and 22 TDs. He's due for some touchdown regression, but Jones should set career highs across the board if he can stay healthy.

Oct 27, 2019, 11:42 PM ET

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 7:37 AM, hardcoredx said:

Yep, he isn’t built to be a real Rb. Too many people on this board liked Jones and that was the sign. He was on my do not draft list

Hows this going hardcore?? 

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does seem to take a lot of big hits, i don't know if that's his running style or not.  but he's certainly talented, and having a ridonkulous receiving year.

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Williams takes even bigger hits, that guy gets crushed constantly.

Jones has been amazing in the passing game.  I did not see this coming. 

Thankfully Green Bay is FINALLY passing the ball to their running backs.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Williams takes even bigger hits, that guy gets crushed constantly.

Jones has been amazing in the passing game.  I did not see this coming. 

Thankfully Green Bay is FINALLY passing the ball to their running backs.

 

 

Wondering if McCarthy is at home saying to himself, "boy maybe I should've threw the ball to this Jones kid"?

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5 minutes ago, montana_grizzly_bears said:

The problem is the passing to the backs is a by-product of Adams being out. I mentioned it before, what happens in a week or two when Adams gets back. Those extra passes are going to to go way down. 

Does this mean you’ll bench him them? 🤷‍♂️ 

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12 minutes ago, montana_grizzly_bears said:

The problem is the passing to the backs is a by-product of Adams being out. I mentioned it before, what happens in a week or two when Adams gets back. Those extra passes are going to to go way down. 

While there is some validity to that it is probably less then you expect, especially for Jones.

- Rodgers is averaging 3 less passes a game since Adams has been out.  You would think his volume would increase slightly

- The RBs are only averaging 4 more targets per game since Adams was out.  It is not a big jump.

- Jones' share of the RB targets has gone from 50% w/ Adams to 70% without him.  I don't think this is a function of Adams.  I think this is a function of them finding what works.

Add in the fact that Green Bay is 4-0 over that stretch and averaging a TD more a game.  

I doubt they would revert back.  If they do the impact looks minor and I would think more of it would come at the expense of Williams.  

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14 minutes ago, montana_grizzly_bears said:

No but it will downgrade him from strong RB1 (25ish ppg) to a middling RB2 (15ish ppg). 

Insanity. I’m probably starting both Jones and Williams the rest of the season. 

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4 minutes ago, montana_grizzly_bears said:

I honestly hope all of you are right and I am wrong. I want it to continue the rest of the year, but I don't want to get my hopes up to much. 

I think we're way past this. He has proven he's a great talent on a high powered office who gets volume and goal line carries. The only thing that can stop this train is injury. Which is something to worry about and prepare for.

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2 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

I think we're way past this. He has proven he's a great talent on a high powered office who gets volume and goal line carries. The only thing that can stop this train is injury. Which is something to worry about and prepare for.

Or drops and fumbles. Lest we not forget a couple weeks ago. 

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