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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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On 10/7/2019 at 5:01 PM, kittenmittens said:

Snaps are more important than touches when it comes to predicting fantasy points.

They are?

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9 minutes ago, montana_grizzly_bears said:

Or drops and fumbles. Lest we not forget a couple weeks ago. 

Sure, but I think you can get your hopes up at this point. It's OK :)

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11 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

They are?

For running backs, total yards correlate most strongly to fantasy scoring, followed by—perhaps surprisingly—snaps, then touches, total touchdowns, and rushing yards.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/15/20806716/fantasy-football-sticky-stats

I'm sure you could find something to refute that.  Just providing a source, read it other places too. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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14 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

For running backs, total yards correlate most strongly to fantasy scoring, followed by—perhaps surprisingly—snaps, then touches, total touchdowns, and rushing yards.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/15/20806716/fantasy-football-sticky-stats

I'm sure you could find something to refute that.  Just providing a source, read it other places too. 

Interesting.

The correlation for snaps was .88 which is strong. The correlation for touches was .87 which is also strong. They are almost identical but yes snaps does correlate slightly more according to this study.

It is logical that the player who gets more snaps has more opportunity to see touches, but this isn't always the case. Sometimes a RB will play the most snaps but not get the ball much. Some players get the ball a lot more when they are on the field than others do. I actually think this is kind of bad when a players touch to snap frequency is too high, as there is less surprise factor for the defense in that scenario. For example Joe Mixon has been getting the ball almost 50% of the time he is on the field.

Aaron Jones has played on 60% of the snaps for the Packers in the first 7 games of the season and 64% of the snaps last night.

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Aaron Jones rushed 13 times for 93 yards and three touchdowns in the Packers' 24-16, Week 10 win over the Panthers.

Jones accounted for all three Green Bay touchdowns and has now found the end zone 14 times in 10 games. He wasn't targeted in the passing game, and Jamaal Williams received the same amount of carries. But it was Jones getting the money looks in the scoring area with touchdowns from five, one, and 13 yards out. The Carolina defense has been bad against the run all year, and today was no different. Green Bay now heads into its bye before an NFC showdown with the currently-unbeaten 49ers in Week 12.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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A question that skates the line between being in the shark pool and the assistant coach forum.  Basically my question is this--should Jones be considered a matchup proof start right now?  I'm in a position where I need to choose between him vs the Niners and Courtland Sutton against the Bills in a full ppr league.   Normally I'm of the belief you just start your studs---but I'm strangely hesitant today.   Am I overthinking things?

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5 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

A question that skates the line between being in the shark pool and the assistant coach forum.  Basically my question is this--should Jones be considered a matchup proof start right now?  I'm in a position where I need to choose between him vs the Niners and Courtland Sutton against the Bills in a full ppr league.   Normally I'm of the belief you just start your studs---but I'm strangely hesitant today.   Am I overthinking things?

He’s an auto-start for me regardless of matchup. 

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3 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

A question that skates the line between being in the shark pool and the assistant coach forum.  Basically my question is this--should Jones be considered a matchup proof start right now?  I'm in a position where I need to choose between him vs the Niners and Courtland Sutton against the Bills in a full ppr league.   Normally I'm of the belief you just start your studs---but I'm strangely hesitant today.   Am I overthinking things?

I would say Jones normally falls in the start your studs category. I definitely wouldn’t second guess him in this instance. SF is a strong DST but their weakness is defending the run. They are slightly below average in that category. So the GB gameplan should have a heavy dose of Jones. 

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Aaron Jones rushed 13 times for 38 yards in Week 12 against the 49ers.

The Packers offense struggled to sustain drives in this one, and Jones fell out of the gameplan playing behind in the second half. The 49ers haven’t been great against the run this year, but this was a tough matchup for Jones on the road. After scoring a touchdown in six of his first 10 games, Jones has been held out of the end-zone in two of the last three weeks. Jones was out-touched by Jamaal Williams (18 touches) but gamescript should be in his favor for a matchup with the Giants in Week 13.

Nov 24, 2019, 11:31 PM ET

 

 

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I posted in the Williams thread vut this is bad reporting. While the touches were close. Williams had 4 rushes until the last drive(11 yards). The obvious concern for Jones is the now lack of passes. He had 1 target today. Plus side he made a coyple negative plays into positives and also had 2(?) runs called back by penalties.

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I don't get the Packers.

Their offense stinks for half the year.  Then they start feeding Aaron Jones in the passing game and the offense blows up.  Then they stop feeding him in the passing game and now they suck again.

It's not just LaFleur either.  Rodgers was constantly checking down to Jamaal Williams but every time Aaron Jones was open with some space he looked right past him.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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I thought he looked spectacular. More than a few times he was blown up in the backfield and turned the play into positive yards. You just don’t see that a lot and certainly not multiple times in a game against a top defense. 

The Packers just seem to forget who they are some weeks. From coaching to Rodgers to the team. 
 

Good news is they didn’t design plays for Jones and they lost. Me thinks Lafleur will learn from this. 

If they’d won, there’d be no incentive to change. 

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i guess the 7-159-2 game he had receiving a month ago was just too good.... because he has 1 catch for -1 yard in the last three games since. i think williams looks good, but jones does look better... i dont mind the split, but get jones involved in passing game again, he's electric with the ball.

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2 hours ago, iamkoza said:

i guess the 7-159-2 game he had receiving a month ago was just too good.... because he has 1 catch for -1 yard in the last three games since. i think williams looks good, but jones does look better... i dont mind the split, but get jones involved in passing game again, he's electric with the ball.

He is unstoppable if covered by a LB.  He just outruns then and has good hands.  He runs solid routes.  I don't understand why that isn't a primary staple of the offense.  Terrible job of coaching.

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2 hours ago, Gally said:

He is unstoppable if covered by a LB.  He just outruns then and has good hands.  He runs solid routes.  I don't understand why that isn't a primary staple of the offense.  Terrible job of coaching.

Rodgers has been and will always will be a gunslinger. Not a check down QB. As long as Adams is out there,  Rodgers wants to sling the ball his way. He would rather take a sack than check it down. He's a star quarterback,  not some kind of game manager.

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27 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

Rodgers has been and will always will be a gunslinger. Not a check down QB. As long as Adams is out there,  Rodgers wants to sling the ball his way. He would rather take a sack than check it down. He's a star quarterback,  not some kind of game manager.

But he checks it down to Jamaal Williams all day. 

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He’s ok. Has an Ekeler quality about him. 

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If Adams gets hurt again, watch out tho

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40 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

Rodgers has been and will always will be a gunslinger. Not a check down QB. As long as Adams is out there,  Rodgers wants to sling the ball his way. He would rather take a sack than check it down. He's a star quarterback,  not some kind of game manager.

I am not saying anything about that.  If you look at the games that Jones excelled in the passing game he was catching the ball down the field.  Not dump offs.  He is good enough to run deeper patterns and has an advantage over LB's trying to cover him in those situations.  He also has above average hands (except for the one obvious wide open drop a few games ago) and has made some tough catches when well covered.  It should be a big part of their game plan.  It would scare me the most when they do that if I was trying to stop it on defense. 

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13 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

But he checks it down to Jamaal Williams all day. 

That's a good point. What's up with that you think? Jones averages 10 yards a catch compared to williams' 6. And why do they use williams in the 2 minute offense. Please no one say pass pro. Jones is good at that.

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He looked good but the offense is puzzling. As mentioned before, no passes to Jones, which was odd to me.

He has stayed healthy so far, which to me was his biggest obstacle toward being a top rb. I definitely regret trading him away at this point. however long term I like what I got better. I disagree with what I said earlier; I dont think GB goes for a RB in 2020 unless it's a later pick. Jones and Williams are making a good 1-2 punch. When used correctly and efficiently both hold fantasy value. 

I dont see him as a featured back type. but I dont think that's what Lafleur wants 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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I’ve also partially reassessed my value on Jones for the reasons @Dr. Dan mentions. It’s bizarre, however, that across two coaching staffs there is a persistent refusal to involve him by design in the passing game, especially when their offense looked unstoppable when they were throwing to him. I guess the common denominator is Rodgers and we’ve beaten that and other possible causes to death already. Bottom line is, if it requires an injury to Adams to have Jones involved as a receiver then passing to him is obviously viewed as a compensatory strategy rather than as a design element. If so, then he’s pretty TD dependent to have RB1 weeks. 

Edited by DAG
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I am not at all worried about jones.  There is a lot of overreaction going on to a few tough matchups imo.  Dude is RB3 in my .5 PPR league rt now and people are complaining.  He might not be elite from a workhorse perspective, but he is from a talent perspective, and GB runs the ball really well, and they are committed to running around the goal line.  He still has a few monster games left in him this season assuming he stays healthy.  Wouldn't be surprised if those happened in the fantasy playoffs.  

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8 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

This guy is a gigantic sell in dynasty right now.   He's approaching DWill last offseason levels of obvious sell. 

 

I dealt Jones and Derek Carr for Aaron Rodgers and Mattison a week ago. I own Dalvin Cook so wanted Mattison. The other guy has Russell Wilson so Rodgers was tradable. Dynasty, obv. I think we’re both happy. He was very needy at RB, trying to make a push this year. 

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3 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I dealt Jones and Derek Carr for Aaron Rodgers and Mattison a week ago. I own Dalvin Cook so wanted Mattison. The other guy has Russell Wilson so Rodgers was tradable. Dynasty, obv. I think we’re both happy. He was very needy at RB, trying to make a push this year. 

In a deep keeper league.  Traded for Jones 2 weeks ago (also got Auden Tate), gave up Amari Cooper.   Jones has great keeper value, Amari not much.  

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Jones has another three-TD game in him this season. He also has another three-point fantasy game in him. At the end of the year, his numbers will look great but he's wildly erratic. You just have to accept the wild point swings and hope he comes through when you really need him. 

When he doesn't produce, Williams normally comes through with a decent day. You just never really know when that will be. 

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On 11/28/2019 at 4:50 PM, Neil Beaufort Zod said:

Jones has another three-TD game in him this season. He also has another three-point fantasy game in him. At the end of the year, his numbers will look great but he's wildly erratic. You just have to accept the wild point swings and hope he comes through when you really need him. 

When he doesn't produce, Williams normally comes through with a decent day. You just never really know when that will be. 

And that has how my season has gone!!!  I have had the highest score in my league 3 weeks...as well as the lowest score for 3 weeks.  Erratic performances across the board as well as lots of key injuries, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Tevin Coleman, Hunter Henry...etc,etc. Still-if I win this week I am in the playoffs.  As of now though I will keep Jones next year for a 9th rounder and will roll the dice each week with him next year.

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Rather see the Packers hand off to him on 3rd and long than risk ever letting Rodgers throw the ball again. Good news for us Jones owners, is Rodgers is terrified to put the game in his hands. Rodgers is declining so come the final few weeks with bad weather, prepare for a multiple explosion of massive games from Jones. 

The funniest thing I have heard all season was Rodgers recent comment that he was gonna take over. Yeah, I also am going to be a millionaire cuz I say so. 

Do many feel confident that Rodgers will throw for over 200 yards and a TD in any game? No. Why? Because we know he will just hand off the the beast that is Jones because he knows his arm is done. It could be argued Rodgers is holding this team back. I'm not scared to say it, this team would be better without Rodgers. This team has Rodgers for the games against 49ers, and we seen that he is incapable to compete against good defenses now, just hand off ARod and retire at seasons end. Dont get cute and try to throw with a washed up 35 yo RB who wishes he was Brady. 

Jones 18/116/2 and 4/38/0. Rodgers 146 yards and 0 TDs. This is why you run with Jones, and run with Jones some more. 

Jones continues to be the most valuable player for this team. 

Edited by tackle for loss

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I think Jones will have a big game today bc of the matchup but @Neil Beaufort Zod is exactly right about the volatility. Without a designed receiving role and Williams siphoning off some touches he needs chunk runs and goal line carries. Those seem pretty possible against the Giants. 

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4 hours ago, tackle for loss said:

Rather see the Packers hand off to him on 3rd and long than risk ever letting Rodgers throw the ball again. Good news for us Jones owners, is Rodgers is terrified to put the game in his hands. Rodgers is declining so come the final few weeks with bad weather, prepare for a multiple explosion of massive games from Jones. 

The funniest thing I have heard all season was Rodgers recent comment that he was gonna take over. Yeah, I also am going to be a millionaire cuz I say so. 

Do many feel confident that Rodgers will throw for over 200 yards and a TD in any game? No. Why? Because we know he will just hand off the the beast that is Jones because he knows his arm is done. It could be argued Rodgers is holding this team back. I'm not scared to say it, this team would be better without Rodgers. This team has Rodgers for the games against 49ers, and we seen that he is incapable to compete against good defenses now, just hand off ARod and retire at seasons end. Dont get cute and try to throw with a washed up 35 yo RB who wishes he was Brady. 

Jones 18/116/2 and 4/38/0. Rodgers 146 yards and 0 TDs. This is why you run with Jones, and run with Jones some more. 

Jones continues to be the most valuable player for this team. 

This is pretty far off on a lot of levels IMO, but an entertaining and interesting perspective nonetheless

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23 minutes ago, oddsbodkins said:

Can't trust him for the playoffs. Hardly any touches so far.

And not much from the touches he’s getting

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Washington at home next week... I'll see you guys here I guess. Rodgers loves to pad his stats against bad teams though.

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Between him and Barkley (you would think a good combination) they are killing me at the end of the year!

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9 hours ago, tackle for loss said:

 

The funniest thing I have heard all season was Rodgers recent comment that he was gonna take over.

Jones 18/116/2 and 4/38/0. Rodgers 146 yards and 0 TDs. This is why you run with Jones, and run with Jones some more. 

Jones continues to be the most valuable player for this team. 

Update? 

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Aaron Jones rushed 11 times for 18 yards in the Packers' Week 13 win over the Giants, adding four receptions for 13 additional yards.

Jones had one of the more unlucky afternoons from a RB in recent memory. Overall, he was stopped twice inside the one-yard line and also had a score nullified by penalty. Jones continues to spend plenty of time on the sidelines in favor of Jamaal Williams. The Packers fed Jones more targets than anyone other than Davante Adams, but it's still not anything close to the workhorse role we saw with Adams sidelined. The good news is next week’s home matchup against the Redskins is about as good of a get-right spot as Jones could ask for.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Aaron Jones had 16 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 against Washington.

Jones was the entire Packers offense, also leading them in receiving with 58 yards on seven targets. He had a four-yard TD on Green Bay's opening drive and helped close out the win in the second half. It's a nice rebound for Jones, who was held to 69 scoreless yards the last two weeks. Jones's 15 touchdowns are trail only Christian McCaffrey and he's emerged as one of Aaron Rodgers's top targets behind Davante Adams. Jones will remain an RB1 play for a division matchup with Chicago in Week 15.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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