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Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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27 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Even if Jones could be a feature back I doubt he is when Montgomery is healthy. Montgomery would be a great 3rd down/CoP. He  could be a better version of Sproles/Woodhead/Riddick. A guy that could see 5 to 10 runs a game plus catch 5+ passes, with Jones being the 1st,2nd and short yardage back. If they are both healthy you have low running back 2's/flex guys, if one of them is injured you have a low end rb1.

What do people see in Ty Montgomery as being a superior RB? He seemed like the only guy available last year who did have a nice YPC, but only had one start with over 9 attempts. He did destroy Chicago in week 13 last year in his only game with over 9 carries (16), but the Packers never used him like a true RB1 and then drafted 3 RBs this year. Don't get the love for the guy. 

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2 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

What do people see in Ty Montgomery as being a superior RB? He seemed like the only guy available last year who did have a nice YPC, but only had one start with over 9 attempts. He did destroy Chicago in week 13 last year in his only game with over 9 carries (16), but the Packers never used him like a true RB1 and then drafted 3 RBs this year. Don't get the love for the guy. 

This was my biggest critique for him heading into this season. I got a lot of flak from several posters for it and backed off because people were tired of hearing about it, and that was fair in their defense. 

After watching Ty's actual carries (not his weight, stats, etc.. .actual video) I came to the conclusion that he looked way better than last season. Powerful, decisive, and like an actual RB. 

Jones has looked, at times, even better. He's capable of getting 15 carries a game and not breaking down. The biggest issue with Ty is when he's gotten over 15 touches he tends to get hurt rather quickly. 

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:



If you are insinuating that Ty would line up as a slot type back and Jones would be in the backfield, I would agree with you. If you are saying that he will switch back to WR, I disagree. Ty spent the last 12 months converting to RB. I am not so sure he switches back to WR completely. Jones hasn't been that amazing

That is what I meant.  They won't scrap the hole experiment altogether.  IMO...it is an experiment.  They haven't found that consistent stud RB since...Ahman Green.  Ty is a great athlete.  Figured they'd go that route after fat Lacy and others bombed out.  I could see a lot of Ty in motion...dual back set and him working in the slot.  Him and Nelson would create mismatches for DBs.  

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How 

1 hour ago, Bad_Mo said:

So, let me summarize Football Jones posts...

He was a wrestler.

Weight is the issue not BMI.  Not really relevant in football, bud.  Sorry.

He owns Williams and desperately wants him to supplant Ty.  Although, he can't even impress the coaches enough to start over Jones, the midget.  Big guys are his favorite.  I'll take a Faulk or Smith instead of an Ironhead or Bettis any day.  ANY...DAY.

Obviously, hasn't really watched each carry Jones had in the DAL or CHI game.  Kid is explosive, tough and can run between tackles.  NOT a scat back.  Get over his weight, man.  Appreciate the results.  Wiliams will be borderline inactive/3rd string going forward.  Jones's work should make Ty very, very nervous.

 

LOL. I mentioned wrestling because there's all types of body styles, all at the same weight. Weight is key for me, not BMI.

If BMI is a tool you use & you've been successful with it, who am I to argue?

Again, 208 is fine if has has the traits to go with it. It's not rocket science. 

I'm beginning to get the feeling anybody who doubts Jones is an idiot. Even if I didn't use the criteria I use, Jones is a long, long way from a sure thing. As Aaron Rodgers said one time, "RELAAAX". Let's enjoy the discussion & appreciate everyone's thoughts.

Edited by Football Jones

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I’ll interject by saying that I’m fortunate to have Jones locked up in a dynasty league. I’ll throw this comp out there:

Brian Westbrook

Size, skill, team/QB circumstance seems very similar 

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1 minute ago, Football Jones said:

How 

LOL, I mentioned wrestling because there's all types of body styles, all at the same weight. Weight is key for me, not BMI.

If BMI is a tool you use & you've been successful with it, who am I to argue?

Again, 208 is fine if has has the traits to go with it. It's not rocket science. 

I'm beginning to get the feeling anybody who doubts Jones is an idiot. Even if I didn't use the criteria I use, Jones is a long, long way from a sure thing. As Aaron Rodgers said one time, "RELAAAX." Let's enjoy the discussion & appreciate everyone's thoughts.

The only arguments you've given regarding Jones being successful are his weight and that you like Williams more. How can you not expect people to look at you as if you're just sour grapes because you missed on Jones and hitched your ride to the wrong horse? It's obvious

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6 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

I’ll interject by saying that I’m fortunate to have Jones locked up in a dynasty league. I’ll throw this comp out there:

Brian Westbrook

Size, skill, team/QB circumstance seems very similar 

interesting... not a bad comparison

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

The only arguments you've given regarding Jones being successful are his weight and that you like Williams more. How can you not expect people to look at you as if you're just sour grapes because you missed on Jones and hitched your ride to the wrong horse? It's obvious

I've explained numerous times it's a combination of Jones' size (weight) & traits. I like Williams more as a potential long-term feature back. I've never said he's a lock to be a feature back. I liked WIllaims' ADP & the fact he's plays in a  good offense, but Jones is an entirely different discussion.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

I've explained numerous times it's a combination of Jones' size (weight) & traits. I like Williams more as a potential long-term feature back. I've never said he's a lock to be a feature back. I liked WIllaims' ADP & the fact he's plays in a  good offense, but Jones is an entirely different discussion.

 

 

That's fine but you have no clue, LOL (no offense meant).

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Jones and Ty are going to split the workload moving forward.  Wish I knew that split.  My guess is that Jones gets at least 50%.  I am so tempted to drop Abdullah for Jones this week but at the #4 WW spot, it probably is not going to matter. 

Love reading the arguments for and against Jones.  It really does take two sides to keep things in perspective. 

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1 minute ago, Football Jones said:

How 

LOL, I mentioned wrestling because there's all types of body styles, all at the same weight. Weight is key for me, not BMI.

If BMI is a tool you use & you've been successful with it, who am I to argue?

Again, 208 is fine if has has the traits to go with it. It's not rocket science. 

I'm beginning to get the feeling anybody who doubts Jones is an idiot. Even if I didn't use the criteria I use, Jones is a long, long way from a sure thing. As Aaron Rodgers said one time, "RELAAAX." Let's enjoy the discussion & appreciate everyone's thoughts.

I don't think that's the case.  You certainly should be skeptical of a rookie RB behind that rotating line.  If you're in the camp that prefers heavier RBs...than Jones isn't a guy you're hitching your wagon to.  I look at it from a compete level.  Kid appeared to pick up some blitzes well and earn the trust of Rodgers.  Ty, despite being a heavier guy, gets dinged up a lot.  So, the weight bias is leveled.  

 

Jones's stats in his only 2 games played this year were 19-125-1 td (6.6 ypc); 1-9 rec vs. DAL and versus CHI when pressed into duty...13-49-1 td (3.8 ypc).

Ty in 4 games...46-152- 2 td for a paltry 3.3 ypc...receiving is 18-129-1 td.  Coaches are fools if they don't split Ty out and ride the Aaron Jones train.

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My rankings are probably more fluid than most FFers. They can change rapidly.

If I thought Jones was a potential long-term feature back, I'd be sending out offers. I send out offers all the time on guys I didn't draft.

Jones just happens to be somebody I won't be going after. That said,  he was very productive yesterday & could possibly be productive the rest of this season if things fall right. However, I'm specifically referring to Jones' long-term prognosis. 

if I did happen to own Jones, I'd be tempted to move him now. However, there's a fine line of when to get max value so waiting might not be a bad course of action.

Edited by Football Jones

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4 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Jones and Ty are going to split the workload moving forward.  Wish I knew that split.  My guess is that Jones gets at least 50%.  I am so tempted to drop Abdullah for Jones this week but at the #4 WW spot, it probably is not going to matter. 

Love reading the arguments for and against Jones.  It really does take two sides to keep things in perspective. 

You're assuming the 3 ahead of you don't grab him first.

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1 minute ago, DocHolliday said:

Jones and Ty are going to split the workload moving forward.  Wish I knew that split.  My guess is that Jones gets at least 50%.  I am so tempted to drop Abdullah for Jones this week but at the #4 WW spot, it probably is not going to matter. 

Love reading the arguments for and against Jones.  It really does take two sides to keep things in perspective. 

I’m skeptical that Montgomery got Wally Pipp’d. 

GB has a good backup in Jones now, no doubt - but TyMont should see his feature back role restored when he’s back from injury. 

70-30 seems more likely, which is certainly more work than Williams was seeing behind TyMont.

Jones looked pretty good against a mediocre DAL D. I don’t think he looked good enough for the Packers to demote TyMont. From what I saw, Montgomery is better in pass protection, and keeping Rodgers healthy seems more important than anything to the Packers. 

Time will tell, but I doubt it’ll be 50-50 when Montgomery returns. I don’t recall seeing GB go RBBC except in desperate times. They seem to prefer using a feature back. 

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1 minute ago, Bad_Mo said:

I don't think that's the case.  You certainly should be skeptical of a rookie RB behind that rotating line.  If you're in the camp that prefers heavier RBs...than Jones isn't a guy you're hitching your wagon to.  I look at it from a compete level.  Kid appeared to pick up some blitzes well and earn the trust of Rodgers.  Ty, despite being a heavier guy, gets dinged up a lot.  So, the weight bias is leveled.  

 

Jones's stats in his only 2 games played this year were 19-125-1 td (6.6 ypc); 1-9 rec vs. DAL and versus CHI when pressed into duty...13-49-1 td (3.8 ypc).

Ty in 4 games...46-152- 2 td for a paltry 3.3 ypc...receiving is 18-129-1 td.  Coaches are fools if they don't split Ty out and ride the Aaron Jones train.

I don't understand the weight thing one bit. If Jones was bigger/heavier at his height, he'd run the risk of being too big. Height plays a factor. BMI has it's limitations, I agree, but in football almost all position players have very low body fat%. The fact that Jones has a high enough BMI and does not visually appear to be someone with excessive fat, I'd say his weight is a moot point 

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1 minute ago, mrfrood said:

Why can't Monty move to full time WR? Cobb and Nelson are always banged up. 

He's a terrible WR

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

I don't understand the weight thing one bit. If Jones was bigger/heavier at his height, he'd run the risk of being too big. Height plays a factor. BMI has it's limitations, I agree, but in football almost all position players have very low body fat%. The fact that Jones has a high enough BMI and does not visually appear to be someone with excessive fat, I'd say his weight is a moot point 

Tell that to Eddie Lacy. :lol: 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m skeptical that Montgomery got Wally Pipp’d. 

GB has a good backup in Jones now, no doubt - but TyMont should see his feature back role restored when he’s back from injury. 

70-30 seems more likely, which is certainly more work than Williams was seeing behind TyMont.

Jones looked pretty good against a mediocre DAL D. I don’t think he looked good enough for the Packers to demote TyMont. From what I saw, Montgomery is better in pass protection, and keeping Rodgers healthy seems more important than anything to the Packers. 

Time will tell, but I doubt it’ll be 50-50 when Montgomery returns. I don’t recall seeing GB go RBBC except in desperate times. They seem to prefer using a feature back. 

This is where I stand. As long as Ty is healthy, he's the lead back. I think at worst GB will rotate Jones every 3rd series, but even then... they've never done that. Jones may get 5-6 carries a game with Ty getting 10-15. Ty getting the majority of the check down/receptions. 

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2 minutes ago, Bad_Mo said:

You're assuming the 3 ahead of you don't grab him first.

Exactly.  That is why it will not matter what I want to do.  He will be gone. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He's a terrible WR

But he is a highly effective receiver out of the backfield. 

Get him on just about any LB or DL and it’s an instant mismatch, and GB seems to love exploiting that. 

I doubt they’d convert him to WR but IMO he’ll see heavy reception totals when he returns. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Tell that to Eddie Lacy. :lol: 

I was thinking of Donald Driver when I wrote that. Guy was a beast. Still is. Lowest body fat% on the team when he played

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

This is where I stand. As long as Ty is healthy, he's the lead back. I think at worst GB will rotate Jones every 3rd series, but even then... they've never done that. Jones may get 5-6 carries a game with Ty getting 10-15. Ty getting the majority of the check down/receptions. 

Agree 100%

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

I was thinking of Donald Driver when I wrote that. Guy was a beast. Still is. Lowest body fat% on the team when he played

That dude won me so many games - such an underrated FFB (and RL) WR. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Bur he is a highly effective receiver out of the backfield. 

Get him on just about any LB or DL and it’s an instant mismatch, and GB seems to love exploiting that. 

I doubt they’d convert him to WR but IMO he’ll see heavy reception totals when he returns. 

Yeah his YPC when he was a WR was not much different than when he switched to RB. He would be an average WR2, good WR3. But not sure GB needs that or wants to abandon their experiment either

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Agree 100%

Before Ty went down, he lost maybe 3 carries a game not including Rodgers' runs. I would see that doubling and them giving that to Jones. 

I'm one of Ty's biggest critics... but he did look good. I cannot imagine what he would have done vs Dallas... People are under estimating Ty's position on the team and how well he has been doing. Jones hasn't been that good. If he ran for 200 yards 2 weeks in a row, sure, then we have a case. He's at least earned a few more carries. Long term, Jones may play out as the future back on this roster, but for now GB has a very capable RB earning more carries. If he keeps it up and Ty sputters, then sure I can see this happening, but not today. 

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1 hour ago, Football Jones said:

In case you missed it, here's what I wrote recently: 

I'm not a BMI guy. As a former wrestler, weight is my main concern. There's obviously more to it than weight & I'm not saying bigger is better, but I believe smaller RBs need specific high end traits to survive with all the big, fast athletes on D in today's NFL. You can make up for some of that if you're extremely strong & physical for your size, but that's not Jones.

220 is about the cutoff where I don't worry too much about about size & concentrate on other attributes. And again, there's more to it than weight. For instance, you can be a soft 220 which negates your size advantage. In general, though, the farther you get away from 220 or so the more the specific high end traits come into play for me. It's a "system" I've used with great success to determine who has the POTENTIAL to be a feature back, which is the key to RB scouting, IMO.

That sums it up in a very general sense.

While 220 lbs has long been considered an ideal weight for an NFL RB there are so many instances of a featured RB being lighter or heavier than this that I don't find that to be any hard fast rule. Additionally NFL players weight fluctuates frequently from what they weighed at the time of the combine. Some lose weight if they think it will give them a faster time in the 40 yard dash, then put more weight back on immediately following the combine. Others may gain weight prior to the combine but will play at a lighter weight than that in practice and in the games.

For example Adrian Peterson weighed 217 lbs at the combine. Certainly a featured RB. Yet he would somehow be disqualified according to your method.  

Your previous post suggested you had something more in depth than this arbitrary cut off of 220 lbs.

 

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I think most of us would agree the personnel on the defensive side of the ball has changed rather dramatically in the last 20 years or so. Big, fast guys who used to play a skill position are now playing D in many cases. It's because D players are finally getting paid.

That negates a lot of the effectiveness of the smaller, quicker, faster RBs. Those guys can still be long-term feature backs, but they've really got to have specific extraordinary traits. This realization didn't come to me all at once, it was a gradual change.

At this point, though, it's in full effect, IMO. All it takes is a quick look at your RB rankings from last season to see how many RBs under 210 finished in the top 20 for PPR. Depending on scoring rules & such, it's about 2 (Freeman at 6 & Powell at 17 in the particular league I looked at).  I had to look that up, but I already knew the general answer.

Not saying 210 is the cutoff for anything, but I think we can agree anything under that is a smaller RB in today's NFL. Don't want to make too much of it, but it should be kind of eye-opening.

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11 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

While 220 lbs has long been considered an ideal weight for an NFL RB there are so many instances of a featured RB being lighter or heavier than this that I don't find that to be any hard fast rule. Additionally NFL players weight fluctuates frequently from what they weighed at the time of the combine. Some lose weight if they think it will give them a faster time in the 40 yard dash, then put more weight back on immediately following the combine. Others may gain weight prior to the combine but will play at a lighter weight than that in practice and in the games.

For example Adrian Peterson weighed 217 lbs at the combine. Certainly a featured RB. Yet he would somehow be disqualified according to your method.  

Your previous post suggested you had something more in depth than this arbitrary cut off of 220 lbs.

 

Oh, I definitely agree there can be studs under 220 in today's NFL. It's been proven. 

I don't want to make too much of 220, but it's kind of the point where I stop worrying about size, but it depends on the RB.

Edited by Football Jones

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39 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

What do people see in Ty Montgomery as being a superior RB? He seemed like the only guy available last year who did have a nice YPC, but only had one start with over 9 attempts. He did destroy Chicago in week 13 last year in his only game with over 9 carries (16), but the Packers never used him like a true RB1 and then drafted 3 RBs this year. Don't get the love for the guy. 

Did I  say superior back? All those backs were 4th round and later, they had no other backs on the roster, did you really think they would go into the season with just 1 running back? Bad point by you.

He is a very talented football player, use the eye test. Did you ever think they didn't give him a full workload last year because he was converting from receiver and had no idea how to pass block? He would have gotten Rodgers killed. It is hard to get a full workload when you A. Don't play every down at running back and B. The Packers weren't going just bring him in and run the ball with him and telegraph their plays and he couldn't be in there to protect Rodgers. 

Anyone that thinks the Packers are going to bench him or move him back to receiver after 1 or 2 good games is nuts. This is a talented guy who needs 10ish touches a game. Maybe he moves back in the off season if they let Adams walk and maybe move on from Cobb, but even that is a stretch. I think his best position is that 3rd down change if pace guy. 

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Before Ty went down, he lost maybe 3 carries a game not including Rodgers' runs. I would see that doubling and them giving that to Jones. 

I'm one of Ty's biggest critics... but he did look good. I cannot imagine what he would have done vs Dallas... People are under estimating Ty's position on the team and how well he has been doing. Jones hasn't been that good. If he ran for 200 yards 2 weeks in a row, sure, then we have a case. He's at least earned a few more carries. Long term, Jones may play out as the future back on this roster, but for now GB has a very capable RB earning more carries. If he keeps it up and Ty sputters, then sure I can see this happening, but not today. 

Did he really look good averaging 3.3 ypc?

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5 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Did I  say superior back? All those backs were 4th round and later, they had no other backs on the roster, did you really think they would go into the season with just 1 running back? Bad point by you.

He is a very talented football player, use the eye test. Did you ever think they didn't give him a full workload last year because he was converting from receiver and had no idea how to pass block? He would have gotten Rodgers killed. It is hard to get a full workload when you A. Don't play every down at running back and B. The Packers weren't going just bring him in and run the ball with him and telegraph their plays and he couldn't be in there to protect Rodgers. 

Anyone that thinks the Packers are going to bench him or move him back to receiver after 1 or 2 good games is nuts. This is a talented guy who needs 10ish touches a game. Maybe he moves back in the off season if they let Adams walk and maybe move on from Cobb, but even that is a stretch. I think his best position is that 3rd down change if pace guy. 

I’m not sure Montgomery vs. Jones is the best way to go about this. I think it’s a coin flip when Montgomery gets back and I think it would be a mistake if GB rushes him back now. Montgomery is clearly talented in his own right but battles sickle cell and has a litany of soft tissue injuries to this point to go along with the ribs. I, unfortunately, don’t own either but would be doing what I could to get both in redraft if I had either.

On a side note, Jamaal Williams I feel comfortable dismissing at this point. He had horrible athletic measurables and was drafted purely on his collegiate production. He also weighs 212 lbs so there is no way he could be a feature back... oh wait that’s actually because of his terrible BMI.

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1 hour ago, Football Jones said:

BTW, my opinions on Jones & most other players I talk about are dynasty-based. Jones could have some real redraft value.

 

Jamal Williams weighed 212 lbs at the combine and also at his pro day where he improved in some of the other combine metrics as you see with a lot of players pro day numbers compared to the combine numbers.

It must be something other than the weight that is driving your opinion then I would guess.

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10 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Did I  say superior back? All those backs were 4th round and later, they had no other backs on the roster, did you really think they would go into the season with just 1 running back? Bad point by you.

He is a very talented football player, use the eye test. Did you ever think they didn't give him a full workload last year because he was converting from receiver and had no idea how to pass block? He would have gotten Rodgers killed. It is hard to get a full workload when you A. Don't play every down at running back and B. The Packers weren't going just bring him in and run the ball with him and telegraph their plays and he couldn't be in there to protect Rodgers. 

Anyone that thinks the Packers are going to bench him or move him back to receiver after 1 or 2 good games is nuts. This is a talented guy who needs 10ish touches a game. Maybe he moves back in the off season if they let Adams walk and maybe move on from Cobb, but even that is a stretch. I think his best position is that 3rd down change if pace guy. 

Not sure what round a guy is drafted in has any relevance.  Terrell Davis was drafted late...Curtis Martin...etc.

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5 minutes ago, Bad_Mo said:

Not sure what round a guy is drafted in has any relevance.  Terrell Davis was drafted late...Curtis Martin...etc.

It says a ton. It says the Packers felt comfortable and confident going into the year with him. If they weren't they would have grabbed a back much earlier in a draft that was considered "loaded" with high end talent or brought in a free agent to compete. 

Sure you can find guys later in the draft, but your odds are better with the guys earlier in the draft.

Edited by msudaisy26
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13 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Jamal Williams weighed 212 lbs at the combine and also at his pro day where he improved in some of the other combine metrics as you see with a lot of players pro day numbers compared to the combine numbers.

It must be something other than the weight that is driving your opinion then I would guess.

He's a very physical runner along with being a lot more dynamic than given credit for. I do agree he's played tentative & hasn't looked like the RB I scouted, but that can happen with rookies.

You also have to remember my main attractions to Williams (other than liking his overall game) was his mid-2nd to early-3rd ADP & his situation, but it's not like I had him rated as a 1st round FF RB.

Edited by Football Jones

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18 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

 

You also have to remember my main attractions to Williams (other than liking his overall game) was his mid-2nd to early-3rd ADP & his situation, but it's not like I had him rated as a 1st round FF RB.

Surely a ADP of 4+ with a good situation would be even better value

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27 minutes ago, Bad_Mo said:

Did he really look good averaging 3.3 ypc?

Yes. He faced some good defenses and did, in fact, look pretty good when he touched the ball. Not his fault at all for his YPC IMO

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37 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Anyone that thinks the Packers are going to bench him or move him back to receiver after 1 or 2 good games is nuts. This is a talented guy who needs 10ish touches a game. Maybe he moves back in the off season if they let Adams walk and maybe move on from Cobb, but even that is a stretch. I think his best position is that 3rd down change if pace guy. 

This

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20 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Did I  say superior back? All those backs were 4th round and later, they had no other backs on the roster, did you really think they would go into the season with just 1 running back? Bad point by you.

He is a very talented football player, use the eye test. Did you ever think they didn't give him a full workload last year because he was converting from receiver and had no idea how to pass block? He would have gotten Rodgers killed. It is hard to get a full workload when you A. Don't play every down at running back and B. The Packers weren't going just bring him in and run the ball with him and telegraph their plays and he couldn't be in there to protect Rodgers. 

Anyone that thinks the Packers are going to bench him or move him back to receiver after 1 or 2 good games is nuts. This is a talented guy who needs 10ish touches a game. Maybe he moves back in the off season if they let Adams walk and maybe move on from Cobb, but even that is a stretch. I think his best position is that 3rd down change if pace guy. 

I guess what I'm driving at is that he filled a need last year, I just don't think Ty is a special RB, I personally don't see it. Granted, he's a good athlete. I get that none of Williams, Jones or Mayes may be the answer at RB, but Ty seems like he's replaceable. He certainly isn't a 15-20 carry RB, and maybe GB doesn't need one, but it is interesting how much they gave the rock to Jones in his 2 game small sample size. I agree that maybe Ty is destined to be a 3rd down COP guy, just not the RB1/RB 2 people drafted him as.

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1 minute ago, ericttspikes said:

I guess what I'm driving at is that he filled a need last year, I just don't think Ty is a special RB, I personally don't see it. Granted, he's a good athlete. I get that none of Williams, Jones or Mayes may be the answer at RB, but Ty seems like he's replaceable. He certainly isn't a 15-20 carry RB, and maybe GB doesn't need one, but it is interesting how much they gave the rock to Jones in his 2 game small sample size. I agree that maybe Ty is destined to be a 3rd down COP guy, just not the RB1/RB 2 people drafted him as.

You do realize that 3rd/CoP backs are rb1 and rb2's a lot. In this offense he is a rb2 even as a specialist. 

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58 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Jones and Ty are going to split the workload moving forward.  Wish I knew that split.  My guess is that Jones gets at least 50%.  I am so tempted to drop Abdullah for Jones this week but at the #4 WW spot, it probably is not going to matter. 

Love reading the arguments for and against Jones.  It really does take two sides to keep things in perspective. 

Right now I am mostly asking myself if Jones should be a tier two RB or still a tier three RB in the way that I separate them as prospects.

I thought Jones looked good against the Cowboys, so I am leaning towards upgrading him to tier two.

I would like to see more before making a change. Seeing Jones run effectively inside is a box that I would like to check that I don't think I can quite yet, although I already know he can run inside effectively at the college level.

FWIW I had Jones ranked as my 3rd overall tier 3 player pre NFL draft and ahead of Jamaal Williams as a tier 3 prospect (very close to tier two). Post NFL draft I dropped him down from this to 8th overall of the tier 3 prospects, just after James Conner and Joe Willaims who I ranked higher than him because of NFL draft position. I upgraded Jamaal Williams to a low tier two RB prospect post NFL draft due to him being drafted higher and because it seemed he fit the inside the tackles runner, more similar to Eddie Lacy (although still very different than Lacy) than Jones is in my view. That could be considered a good and a bad thing. 

I haven't really believed that Ty Montgomery would be able to sustain a featured RB role, so I figured one of these two would get a lot of playing time as a compliment to Montgomery, at the time I thought WIlliams offered a different skill set than Montgomery or Jones, so I thought it would be him. When given the chance to do that he didn't deliver, while Jones has, so I think I should flip them as far as that goes, making Jones a low tier two prospect and Williams a high tier 3 prospect.

I would like to see another game before ultimately deciding on that, but that is the way I am leaning now.

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33 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

He's a very physical runner along with being a lot more dynamic than given credit for. I do agree he's played tentative & hasn't looked like the RB I scouted, but that can happen with rookies.

You also have to remember my main attractions to Williams (other than liking his overall game) was his mid-2nd to early-3rd ADP & his situation, but it's not like I had him rated as a 1st round FF RB.

I agree with you that Williams looks more physical or powerful runner at the college level. I consider that one of his better traits from watching him at the college level.

Just using how they played at the college level I think we had a similar point of view about what Williams strengths are. 

It hasn't translated at the NFL level however (yet).

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

I agree with you that Williams looks more physical or powerful runner at the college level. I consider that one of his better traits from watching him at the college level.

Just using how they played at the college level I think we had a similar point of view about what Williams strengths are. 

It hasn't translated at the NFL level however (yet).

Very disappointing because he's got the ability to be a feature back if he can find his groove. Williams has been tentative & not aggressive enough.

Night & day difference in the way he looked in college. Williams' game will translate to the pros if/when he lets it loose.

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Aaron Jones was a monster in college. He has a stiff arm thats gonna get somebody this year and be in a highlight reel for the season, guaranteed.

Productive all 4 years, more productive than Williams, and he fits the modern day frame of a multidimensional nfl back. For his size Williams doesnt bring a whole lot to the table, to me he doesnt look like a bruiser, he lacks any kind of dynamic ability imo, he looks a lot like Lacy or Ivory to me which i dont think can be successful in todays game.

Look up any highlight of Aaron Jones, you will find him ragdolling kids with his stiff arm in virtually every run that he hasnt just broken off, he reminds me of DJ and Tevin Coleman, slightly smaller than both, but very polished, well rounded with enough mileage to know what youre getting and im still surprised he went as late as he did.

Edited by Run It Up
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16 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Aaron Jones was a monster in college. He has a stiff arm thats gonna get somebody this year and be in a highlight reel for the season, guaranteed.

Productive all 4 years, more productive than Williams, and he fits the modern day frame of a multidimensional nfl back. For his size Williams doesnt bring a whole lot to the table, to me he doesnt look like a bruiser, he lacks any kind of dynamic ability imo, he looks a lot like Lacy or Ivory to me which i dont think can be successful in todays game.

Look up any highlight of Aaron Jones, you will find him ragdolling kids with his stiff arm in virtually every run that he hasnt just broken off, he reminds me of DJ and Tevin Coleman, slightly smaller than both, but very polished, well rounded with enough mileage to know what youre getting and im still surprised he went as late as he did.

I ran across an article from January that said Aaron Jones was the most productive RB in the 2017 class. I didn't subscribe to the page but the first paragraph looked interesting :) 

 

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58 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Very disappointing because he's got the ability to be a feature back if he can find his groove. Williams has been tentative & not aggressive enough.

Night & day difference in the way he looked in college. Williams' game will translate to the pros if/when he lets it loose.

I just want to say in regards to your comments about evaluating RB at the college level and trying to guess how that will translate at the NFL is a very challenging thing to do. Even for professional scouts who are paid to do exactly that.

I think a lot of us here evaluate players to the best of our ability, so you have walked into a crowd of semi-experienced arm chair scouts here. Maybe you are aware of that? Maybe you are not.

In any case we all make mistakes in our evaluations. I hope we all can learn from each other as far as the evaluation process, what works and what doesn't? That will help all of us the next time we are watching college players and trying to grade/evaluate those players at the NFL level.

Your post suggesting that you had a successful evaluation process was the thing that interested me most, as I am always looking for evaluation processes that work and what processes don't. I was hoping to learn something from your process that maybe could be added to things I have learned about this over the years.

It is not my intent to be mean here, but your follow up responses left me wanting, and maybe you could learn some things from the rest of us that will improve your evaluations in the future. That is one of the main things that I am trying to do here by sharing my perspective and listening to others view about players as well as their evaluation processes.

That Williams was a fairly powerful running back at the college level is something that could translate to the NFL level. In the NFL creases are much smaller and defenders much faster in pursuit, so being able to break tackles and gain yards after contact very important traits for an NFL RB to have. At the same time Williams not being very fast leads him to needing to run with more power and to break tackles at the college level than many of the other college RB have to do. In college they run to the outside a lot more and while this works at the college level, it often doesn't at the NFL level. So seeing a RB at the college level gain yards after contact and break tackles are good traits to look for, as those things can help them be successful at the NFL. A college RB needing to do this more than others at the college level should be considered a bit of a problem at the same time though, as they are not using speed, burst and elusiveness to win as much as other RB can do.

The NFL is a much higher level of competition, defensive players are much better individually and collectively at the NFL level than they are in college. There are so many RB who look good or great at the college level, that never translates to the pro game, I think largely because of this difference in the level of competition.

As an example to help illustrate my point consider Andre Williams drafted by the Giants. Very big and powerful RB at the college level (more powerful than Williams) who put up eye popping numbers for Boston College, he also had very good combine metrics showing plus athleticism. Williams was given many opportunities to become a featured RB for the Giants but he proved to be just ordinary or actually below average at the NFL level.

I just don't think you can ever really tell how a players game is going to translate to the NFL until after they have gotten a chance to show what they can do at a higher level of competition. Once they have gotten the opportunity at the NFL level, either they prove they belong or they don't. The ones who do become successful at the NFL level, it usually happens very early, NFL teams just don't have much paitence with these players for them to get more opportunity if they are not performing well enough. So those first few games of a NFL RBs career are very important. Either they have the tools to be successful or they don't. Andre Willaims got a much longer leash to prove he wasn't good enough than most of them will.

I will give Jamaal Williams the benefit of the doubt that he got injured and perhaps that is part of what is holding him back from his game translating to the NFL level. Perhaps he isn't running aggressively enough as you say, but I don't see that as something he is going to be able to just flip the switch and become a more physical runner at the NFL level. He is only going to get a few chances to prove that and so far he has failed to impress, as we see the Packers have already moved on to Jones, who was much more successful with his opportunities. 

That is something every NFL RB has to do. They are not going to get so many chances to prove their worth. Every game, every carry counts. They either have it or they don't.

Most of the really good NFL RBs have been able to prove they belonged right away, because they won't get very many more chances to prove it if they don't.

Edited by Biabreakable
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18 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I just want to say in regards to your comments about evaluating RB at the college level and trying to guess how that will translate at the NFL is a very challenging thing to do. Even for professional scouts who are paid to do exactly that.

I think a lot of us here evaluate players to the best of our ability, so you have walked into a crowd of semi-experienced arm chair scouts here. Maybe you are aware of that? Maybe you are not.

In any case we all make mistakes in our evaluations. I hope we all can learn from each other as far as the evaluation process, what works and what doesn't? That will help all of us the next time we are watching college players and trying to grade/evaluate those players at the NFL level.

Your post suggesting that you had a successful evaluation process was the thing that interested me most, as I am always looking for evaluation processes that work and what processes don't. I was hoping to learn something from your process that maybe could be added to things I have learned about this over the years.

It is not my intent to be mean here, but your follow up responses left me wanting, and maybe you could learn some things from the rest of us that will improve your evaluations in the future. That is one of the main things that I am trying to do here by sharing my perspective and listening to others view about players as well as their evaluation processes.

That Williams was a fairly powerful running back at the college level is something that could translate to the NFL level. In the NFL creases are much smaller and defenders much faster in pursuit, so being able to break tackles and gain yards after contact very important traits for an NFL RB to have. At the same time Williams not being very fast leads him to needing to run with more power and to break tackles at the college level than many of the other college RB have to do. In college they run to the outside a lot more and while this works at the college level, it often doesn't at the NFL level. So seeing a RB at the college level gain yards after contact and break tackles are good traits to look for, as those things can help them be successful at the NFL. A college RB needing to do this more than others at the college level should be considered a bit of a problem at the same time though, as they are not using speed, burst and elusiveness to win as much as other RB can do.

The NFL is a much higher level of competition, defensive players are much better individually and collectively at the NFL level than they are in college. There are so many RB who look good or great at the college level, that never translates to the pro game, I think largely because of this difference in the level of competition.

As an example to help illustrate my point consider Andre Williams drafted by the Giants. Very big and powerful RB at the college level (more powerful than Williams) who put up eye popping numbers for Boston College, he also had very good combine metrics showing plus athleticism. Williams was given many opportunities to become a featured RB for the Giants but he proved to be just ordinary or actually below average at the NFL level.

I just don't think you can ever really tell how a players game is going to translate to the NFL until after they have gotten a chance to show what they can do at a higher level of competition. Once they have gotten the opportunity at the NFL level, either they prove they belong or they don't. The ones who do become successful at the NFL level, it usually happens very early, NFL teams just don't have much paitence with these players for them to get more opportunity if they are not performing well enough. So those first few games of a NFL RBs career are very important. Either they have the tools to be successful or they don't. Andre Willaims got a much longer leash to prove he wasn't good enough than most of them will.

I will give Jamaal Williams the benefit of the doubt that he got injured and perhaps that is part of what is holding him back from his game translating to the NFL level. Perhaps he isn't running aggressively enough as you say, but I don't see that as something he is going to be able to just flip the switch and become a more physical runner at the NFL level. He is only going to get a few chances to prove that and so far he has failed to impress, as we see the Packers have already moved on to Jones, who was much more successful with his opportunities. 

That is something every NFL RB has to do. They are not going to get many chances to prove their worth. Every game, every carry counts. They either have it or they don't.

Most of the really good NFL RBs have been able to prove they belonged right away, because they won't get very many more chances to prove it if they don't.

I think you were looking for some kind of quantitive analysis & the vast majority of my evaluations are subjective, but as I mentioned earlier, that's the core of scouting. I'm not exactly sure what you were looking for when wanting me to describe why I was fairly high on Williams at 212 pounds, but I did give a general overview.

I believe that's why you & some others are a little irritated, LOL You're wanting me to describe an exact process or system, but it simply doesn't exist. I've outlined my general thoughts on vetting out smaller RBs, which to me is key. In short, if you eliminate the guys who CAN'T be long-term feature backs, you're a leg up on finding RBs who CAN be long-term feature backs.

Also, I'm totally aware of the kind of FFers who frequent these boards. That said, I'm not going to change what has been very successful for me. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Edited by Football Jones

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