Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Dr. Dan

Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

If I'm a Jones owner (and not a Ty owner) I'm probably trying to sell him to the Ty owner for a king's ransom. The most likely scenario is that Ty comes back at some point and Jones/Ty form some type of timeshare IMO. Even though I'm still not sold on Ty as a runner and think he's possibly an example of the "modern age RB" taken a step too far I doubt GB just tosses him to the side. He's too versatile not to use.

Of course, Ty is a guy who has gone to the sideline with wrist, ankle and chest injuries in the first month of action and there's a possibility that he simply can't hold up. The problem is that if Jones forces a timeshare and Ty's usage is reduced, the odds that Ty stays healthy increases.

So yeah, the biggest thing Jones owners need to contemplate is whether or not his value has peaked. 

I know this is very general but what do you think he is worth to a Ty owner (just throw out some names)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Either Jones has "it" or he doesn't? My stock says he has it. Green Bay found a gem, and Ty will get this PT and plays and Williams will keep learning. How could you not play Jones now that you saw what you saw?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Mavis is that you? You know, circumventing the forced vacation is a violation of FBG Forum policy. That's almost to the letter what he's said.

Contradicting himself... "it's all about quickness and speed, but not timed events that actually quantify these areas, just see your your eyes. You'll know it when you see it. Trust me, I'm so good you must be a moron not to understand" :rolleyes: 

 

Seems to be his MO... let's not let this thread get ruined either guys. 

Seems it's too late. You've already done this. Crap it would be nice to be able to follow relevant info and less measuring contest.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, G-King said:

Seems it's too late. You've already done this. Crap it would be nice to be able to follow relevant info and less measuring contest.

yep! :thumbup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Boston said:

I know this is very general but what do you think he is worth to a Ty owner (just throw out some names)?

assuming the team with Ty isn't stacked at RB (or why else would they trade?) I would say a RB would be out of the question, so we are down to a te or wr? 

dynasty I wouldn't trade him..  he's very valuable as the future. in redraft I'm not sure...

staying with GB, Cobb? if I have Jones and I package him with my flex to the Ty owner to upgrade my flex or wr2 I think it's possible to do that. straight up I'm not sure you're getting much. he'd have to be in a package deal I think, unless someone thinks he's the cat's ### and really wants him. all it takes is one guy to over react to this performance. long term I think he will be the guy, but not week 6 imo

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

If I'm a Jones owner (and not a Ty owner) I'm probably trying to sell him to the Ty owner for a king's ransom. The most likely scenario is that Ty comes back at some point and Jones/Ty form some type of timeshare IMO. Even though I'm still not sold on Ty as a runner and think he's possibly an example of the "modern age RB" taken a step too far I doubt GB just tosses him to the side. He's too versatile not to use.

Of course, Ty is a guy who has gone to the sideline with wrist, ankle and chest injuries in the first month of action and there's a possibility that he simply can't hold up. The problem is that if Jones forces a timeshare and Ty's usage is reduced, the odds that Ty stays healthy increases.

So yeah, the biggest thing Jones owners need to contemplate is whether or not his value has peaked. 

Very good point. I'd also be looking to sell. Jones' perceived value is really high if this thread is any indication. Of course, it's a small sampling of FFers in reality.

If you could package Jones with a similar player & receive a legit youngish stud at a position where you could use some help, I'd jump on it. I'd also take any 2018 1st in a straight draft pick deal.

Edited by Football Jones

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Very good point. I'd also be looking to sell. Jones' perceived value is really high if this thread is any indication. Of course, it's a small sampling of FFers in reality.

If you could package Jones with a similar player & receive a legit stud at a position where you could use some help, I'd jump on it. I'd also take any 2018 1st in a straight draft pick deal.

I've been thinking of offering Jones and Fitzgerald for Evans

My rbs aren't great, but I've a feeling GB will be rbbc as long as Ty is healthy

Edited by Cowboysfan8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Kind of tired of this conversation (as I imagine others reading it are).

Your statement contradicts itself. 

More painful every day.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any reports yet if Ty is practicing or if they may hold him out a week?  I'd like to see what the kid can do with another full game.

Edited by CentralPA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, CentralPA said:

Any reports yet if Ty is practicing or if they may hold him out a week?  I'd like to see what the kid can do with another full game.

He practiced limited last week, but the Packers usually have Monday off, then Tuesday is a light/film day if I recall from what I read at the Packer HOF... Today is the first "real" day of practice I believe. Too early to tell if he's playing right now... unfortunately. My bet is he will be active. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He practiced limited last week, but the Packers usually have Monday off, then Tuesday is a light/film day if I recall from what I read at the Packer HOF... Today is the first "real" day of practice I believe. Too early to tell if he's playing right now... unfortunately. My bet is he will be active

Those are my fears as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He practiced limited last week, but the Packers usually have Monday off, then Tuesday is a light/film day if I recall from what I read at the Packer HOF... Today is the first "real" day of practice I believe. Too early to tell if he's playing right now... unfortunately. My bet is he will be active. 

I believe in a normal week Thursday is the first full pads practice.  Wednesday is usually helmets and shells.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have doubts Ty plays. With the Pack sitting at 4-1 there's really no need to rush him back with a seemingly capable replacement at his position. Especially when everyone knows how finicky rib injuries can be.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

I have doubts Ty plays. With the Pack sitting at 4-1 there's really no need to rush him back with a seemingly capable replacement at his position. Especially when everyone knows how finicky rib injuries can be.

Agreed.  Also with Ty's injury history and if Jones continues to look as good as he did last game, I could see him having a significant role moving forward. I mean duh.

Edited by Gandalf
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/10/2017 at 9:43 AM, davearm said:

I guess I can only speak for myself, but IMO the big disconnect here is that you've repeatedly mentioned that your evaluation relies on "specific traits", and requires that smaller backs be "exceptional" at these specific traits.

Yet to date I have no idea what this list of specific traits is, or what constitutes exceptional, and in the context of this thread, which specific traits you rate Jones as exceptional and which ones you don't.

Or in other words, if you had said you don't like Jones long term for these five reasons, and reason #1 was his weight, and the other 4 were deficits in specific traits you identified and elaborated on on Jones specifically, maybe folks would understand your evaluation better.

Just my $0.02.

I actually was thinking this the entire time I caught up at the thread as I was at a music festival all weekend, then out of the office on Monday, and really busy yesterday.

What I think has surprisingly been glossed over in this thread (other than references to his SPARQ score), is just how elite of an athlete Jones really is.  I know @Football Jones said he doesn't use metrics ... sounds like an eye test sort of thing for him.  I trust my eyes to tell me when I need to check the metrics, which they do with Jones.  If you compare Jones to another highly productive, highly elusive, smaller back in LeSean McCoy, their metrics are almost carbon copies ... except Jones posted his a full 10 lbs heavier than McCoy.

NFL Draft Scout has Jones as running a 4.50 (though the NFL Combine site has him running a 4.56).  Others can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe sometimes those are updated later, which is why Draft Scout sometimes has different times.  Shady ran a 4.50 at his pro day (no combine workout due to the flu).  Jones had a 10-yard spit of 1.51 to Shady's 1.52.  Jones had a 20-yard split of 2.57 to Shady's 2.59.  Both Jones and Shady had 6.82 3-Cones.  Jones' had a 4.20 short shuttle vs. Shady's 4.18.  He had 16 reps on the bench to Shady's 17 reps.  Jones completely obliterated Shady in the jumps.  See for yourself: Aaron Jones at NFL Draft Scout vs. LeSean McCoy at NFL Draft Scout

This isn't intended to suggest that Aaron Jones is better or equal to LeSean McCoy, but it does tell me that Aaron Jones does, in fact, have some special attributes as an athlete.

I've also heard several evaluators on podcasts this week say that Jones gave the Packers something they haven't had in years.  Many pointed to nuances like timing with the OL, like how Jones drops his pad level into contact while Montgomery often turns his shoulder into contact, etc.  It's completely plausible to me that Jones is a better RB than Montgomery is due to the little things that can't really be picked up in an offseason at the position after only playing it part time in HS.  Jones, on the other hand, has been playing it his entire life.  

My suspicion is Monty gets another week to sit (if his ribs were truly broken to the extent they potentially threatened internal organs - as we've been led to believe).  If Jones plays as well as he did on Sunday again, then Monty probably gets a third week off as it buys him a full month of recovery with the bye in week 8.  At that point, if the Packers have seen 3 full games of Jones playing like he did on Sunday ... well idk how they go back to Monty full time.

I was a huge Monty supporter last year as a season changer, and I fully believe he would've been had he been able to stay healthy.  I sold everywhere this offseason and didn't draft Monty because I didn't believe he'd hold up to the usage.  Felt kinda stupid week 1, but then the efficiency metrics started showing Monty was a product of that RB1 volume, not necessarily his talent.  I think Monty's a good player, but it's been said that the most important skill is staying healthy, which he's not been able to do.  

Time will tell, but there's definitely a chance Aaron Jones ends up a pretty special player.  I'm not so sure I'd advise selling.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

I actually was thinking this the entire time I caught up at the thread as I was at a music festival all weekend, then out of the office on Monday, and really busy yesterday.

What I think has surprisingly been glossed over in this thread (other than references to his SPARQ score), is just how elite of an athlete Jones really is.  I know @Football Jones said he doesn't use metrics ... sounds like an eye test sort of thing for him.  I trust my eyes to tell me when I need to check the metrics, which they do with Jones.  If you compare Jones to another highly productive, highly elusive, smaller back in LeSean McCoy, their metrics are almost carbon copies ... except Jones posted his a full 10 lbs heavier than McCoy.

NFL Draft Scout has Jones as running a 4.50 (though the NFL Combine site has him running a 4.56).  Others can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe sometimes those are updated later, which is why Draft Scout sometimes has different times.  Shady ran a 4.50 at his pro day (no combine workout due to the flu).  Jones had a 10-yard spit of 1.51 to Shady's 1.52.  Jones had a 20-yard split of 2.57 to Shady's 2.59.  Both Jones and Shady had 6.82 3-Cones.  Jones' had a 4.20 short shuttle vs. Shady's 4.18.  He had 16 reps on the bench to Shady's 17 reps.  Jones completely obliterated Shady in the jumps.  See for yourself: Aaron Jones at NFL Draft Scout vs. LeSean McCoy at NFL Draft Scout

This isn't intended to suggest that Aaron Jones is better or equal to LeSean McCoy, but it does tell me that Aaron Jones does, in fact, have some special attributes as an athlete.

I've also heard several evaluators on podcasts this week say that Jones gave the Packers something they haven't had in years.  Many pointed to nuances like timing with the OL, like how Jones drops his pad level into contact while Montgomery often turns his shoulder into contact, etc.  It's completely plausible to me that Jones is a better RB than Montgomery is due to the little things that can't really be picked up in an offseason at the position after only playing it part time in HS.  Jones, on the other hand, has been playing it his entire life.  

My suspicion is Monty gets another week to sit (if his ribs were truly broken to the extent they potentially threatened internal organs - as we've been led to believe).  If Jones plays as well as he did on Sunday again, then Monty probably gets a third week off as it buys him a full month of recovery with the bye in week 8.  At that point, if the Packers have seen 3 full games of Jones playing like he did on Sunday ... well idk how they go back to Monty full time.

I was a huge Monty supporter last year as a season changer, and I fully believe he would've been had he been able to stay healthy.  I sold everywhere this offseason and didn't draft Monty because I didn't believe he'd hold up to the usage.  Felt kinda stupid week 1, but then the efficiency metrics started showing Monty was a product of that RB1 volume, not necessarily his talent.  I think Monty's a good player, but it's been said that the most important skill is staying healthy, which he's not been able to do.  

Time will tell, but there's definitely a chance Aaron Jones ends up a pretty special player.  I'm not so sure I'd advise selling.

Great comparison. Thanks for taking the time to do this. I think that comparison is pretty darn close as well as far as skill set and watching them play. He is definitely fun to watch. I think this is a fantastic well thought out post. Couldn't agree more with this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

At that point, if the Packers have seen 3 full games of Jones playing like he did on Sunday ... well idk how they go back to Monty full time.

Great post, but how about part time this year? Jones may be a dynasty asset leading into next year, maybe that's even likely, but this year Week 9 he'll at least have to share, no? We don't have to know, to me it's possible that AJ could be GB's RB1 & maybe FF RB1 for the rest of the year, we'll just have to see.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another thing we can look at in evaluating these players before they play in the NFL besides the combine and pro day metrics is how they performed statistically at the college level.

In 2016 Aaron Jones was 4th overall in total rushing yards, slightly more rushing yards than Dalvin Cook. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry last season for UTEP averaging 19 rushing attempts per game. All strong indicators of him being capable of being a featured RB albeit at a lower level of college competition, still strong numbers. 

I posted the receiving stats for Jones earlier in the thread and these are good, although not as exceptional in a relative sense as the rushing numbers are when comparing those to other college RB. Still good though.

These are tools we have for evaluating these players besides just watching them and forming opinions based on what we see. Jones checks a lot of the boxes as far as being capable of becoming a featured RB at the NFL level.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Another thing we can look at in evaluating these players before they play in the NFL besides the combine and pro day metrics is how they performed statistically at the college level.

In 2016 Aaron Jones was 4th overall in total rushing yards, slightly more rushing yards than Dalvin Cook. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry last season for UTEP averaging 19 rushing attempts per game. All strong indicators of him being capable of being a featured RB albeit at a lower level of college competition, still strong numbers. 

I posted the receiving stats for Jones earlier in the thread and these are good, although not as exceptional in a relative sense as the rushing numbers are when comparing those to other college RB. Still good though.

These are tools we have for evaluating these players besides just watching them and forming opinions based on what we see. Jones checks a lot of the boxes as far as being capable of becoming a featured RB at the NFL level.

Most productive back in the 2017 class

Also lead the nation in TDs outside the RZ, including 9 TDs of 40+ yards

 

Quote

You probably haven’t heard of Aaron Jones. The former UTEP Miner declared for the draft on New Year’s Eve to little fanfare (Rotoworld were surprised by his decision), and has gotten almost no coverage so far in a much talked-about RB class. But Jones may be the best 2017 draft prospect you have never heard of – until now.

IMPRESSIVE PERFORMANCE, INCREDIBLE EFFICIENCY

Although he showed some promise in his true sophomore season (running for 1321 yards and 11 TDs), Jones’ 2016 performance as a redshirt junior was something special. He finished the season with 1773 rushing yards on 229 attempts, adding 233 receiving yards and scoring 20 TDs. While finishing fourth in the nation for rushing yards is something to be proud of, Jones also sneaked into a special group who have amassed 2000 yards from scrimmage in a season (one of only 42 to achieve this since 2006).

Here is the table of every player to reach that milestone in the last 10 seasons. For each, I’ve included the percent of total offensive yardage and touchdowns the player accounted for, as well as the ratio of those percentages relative to the percentage of team touches the player accounted for.1

Jones may be towards the bottom of this list in terms of total yards, but his per-play efficiency metrics are off the charts.2 Among this list of highly-productive backs over the past 10 seasons, he was in the top eight of each efficiency metric.

Yards per Play 7.81   2nd

Team Yards % 45.3%   6th

Team Yards Efficiency 1.30   1st

Team TD % 48.8%   8th

Team TD Efficiency 1.40   3rd

College Dominator %47.0%   7th

Not only did Jones reach 2000 scrimmage yards on less plays than anyone else, but he did so carrying his offense. He performed 30 percent better per play than average for his team – and a ridiculous 54 percent better than the average for the rest of the Miners offense. Only three other players on the list out-performed their team’s per-play average by more than 15 percent (Tevin Coleman, Chad Hall and Kerwynn Williams), and only one other was better than 25 percent (Coleman).

Jones is one of only four from the group who averaged over 7 yards per play, accounted for at least 40 percent of his team’s yards and TDs, and had a team yards efficiency over 1.1 (marks Jones himself eclipsed by a healthy margin).

The biggest explanation for Jones’ remarkable efficiency was his big-play ability. Jones was the only FBS player with double-digit rushing touchdowns on plays that began outside the red zone, leading the nation with 12 such scores. A whopping 9 of the 12 came on runs of 40-plus yards.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

There is still much to learn in the pre-draft process. Jones is listed at just 5 feet 10 inches, 205 pounds by Rotoworld; where he weighs in and how he tests athletically at the combine will go a long way toward completing the picture of the type of back he profiles as. The combine will also give Jones an opportunity to answer questions abouthis arrest in March for DWI.

It’s also worth considering that Jones may look awesome because the rest of the UTEP offense is truly awful (with one winning season since 2005, that’s very much a possibility). But even if that were the case, Aaron Jones’ ability to carry an offense and put up elite production with seemingly little support or surrounding talent means he is a name to watch over the coming months. It’s not often you get the chance to draft someone who can put up 2000 yards on under 300 touches while performing more than 50 percent better than the rest of his team.


 

Edited by Dr. Dan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Great post, but how about part time this year? Jones may be a dynasty asset leading into next year, maybe that's even likely, but this year Week 9 he'll at least have to share, no? We don't have to know, to me it's possible that AJ could be GB's RB1 & maybe FF RB1 for the rest of the year, we'll just have to see.

I think the most likely scenario if Jones keeps this up is that he becomes the primary back on 1st and 2nd downs with Monty mixed in on 3rd down.  I think it's *possible* that they form a sort of Lacy/Starks duo with Jones getting 2 series to every 1 for Monty.  

It's kinda in 'who knows' territory right now.  I just think it's highly plausible (if not likely) that Jones knows the nuances of the positions better and maybe is just a better fit for what GB needs than Monty.  Monty could run some slot routes, motion out of the backfield, use them together.  

I guess at the end of the day, if Jones performs, I don't think they bench him.  Monty was performing due to volume, not efficiency.  If Jones gives them that efficiency, why force the volume back on Monty?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this point I don't care about Monty's practice participation.  It's the same as last week ... if he's active on Sunday, then I'll take notice.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

At this point I don't care about Monty's practice participation.  It's the same as last week ... if he's active on Sunday, then I'll take notice.

Agree. One thing that stood out to me above in your post was that you were a big Monty supporter last year. As was I. I was calling for him as a season changer before he was a season changer. I was real excited about him but your analysis above is dead on... if I had him in dynasty I likely would have sold as well and bought heavily on Jones. TBH I would have drafted Jones round 3 just to guarantee I had him, even though I'm sure he went round 4-5 or even undrafted in some leagues. I need to get into a dynasty league... 

I think we will see Jones definitely earn more carries. I still stand by this being Ty's show until he proves he can't do it. 4 games isn't enough IMO to completely give up on him; he looked much better than last year and way better than I anticipated. His injury risk is an obvious concern. I like your break down of where their pads are when they get hit, that is a big difference, especially in preventing injuries; I've said time and time again it's how you take a hit and how you hit the ground that makes some people more injury prone than others (in many cases, not all). 

I may be dead on the week 8 take over for Jones... give Ty another 2 weeks and if Jones continues to out-perform Ty against the same opponents then Jones may get the reigns following the bye. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since I have spent more time thinking about and discussing Aaron Jones the past few days, I have gotten to the point where I am asking what flaws does Jones really have?

I am not coming up with much of anything. If anyone does have some legit criticism, I would like to hear it.

About the only thing I can come up with is that the Packers drafted Williams ahead of Jones. Draft position being the most predictive metric we have as far as a RB success. The Packers must have had some reason why they thought Williams was a better RB to select than Jones. I can't find any objective reasons, Jones tested as more athletic than Williams and performed better than Williams statistically in every way at the college level.

Jones did have an injury in 2015 that caused him to miss games. I am not sure what the injury was, but his performance in 2016 gives me a pretty clear indication that the injury did not prevent him from starting and playing at a very high level following it. So I am not sure that would be a reason for him to slip as far as he did in the NFL draft.

If anyone has some reasons why WIlliams was selected ahead of Jones I would like to hear it. I can't find any.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Another thing we can look at in evaluating these players before they play in the NFL besides the combine and pro day metrics is how they performed statistically at the college level.

In 2016 Aaron Jones was 4th overall in total rushing yards, slightly more rushing yards than Dalvin Cook. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry last season for UTEP averaging 19 rushing attempts per game. All strong indicators of him being capable of being a featured RB albeit at a lower level of college competition, still strong numbers. 

I posted the receiving stats for Jones earlier in the thread and these are good, although not as exceptional in a relative sense as the rushing numbers are when comparing those to other college RB. Still good though.

These are tools we have for evaluating these players besides just watching them and forming opinions based on what we see. Jones checks a lot of the boxes as far as being capable of becoming a featured RB at the NFL level.

I'm curious how much weight FFers put into college production. For me, it's individualistic depending on their situation. Case in point, Joe Mixon. I've said he was one of the toughest players I've ever evaluated despite being very familiar with him. Mixon rarely faced a stacked box & was consistently put in positions that magnified his strengths. There was a ton of projecting you had to with his evaluation.

i do use most all metrics to some degree except BMI, but typically only to validate what I see on the field. If there's a big descrepency, time to take another look.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Since I have spent more time thinking about and discussing Aaron Jones the past few days, I have gotten to the point where I am asking what flaws does Jones really have?

I am not coming up with much of anything. If anyone does have some legit criticism, I would like to hear it.

About the only thing I can come up with is that the Packers drafted Williams ahead of Jones. Draft position being the most predictive metric we have as far as a RB success. The Packers must have had some reason why they thought Williams was a better RB to select than Jones. I can't find any objective reasons, Jones tested as more athletic than Williams and performed better than Williams statistically in every way at the college level.

Jones did have an injury in 2015 that caused him to miss games. I am not sure what the injury was, but his performance in 2016 gives me a pretty clear indication that the injury did not prevent him from starting and playing at a very high level following it. So I am not sure that would be a reason for him to slip as far as he did in the NFL draft.

If anyone has some reasons why WIlliams was selected ahead of Jones I would like to hear it. I can't find any.

I actually think the reason as to why they took Williams over Jones is rather easy to decipher. It had to be they thought Williams' game translated better than Jones'. 

I can't tell you why they thought that, but it's the only logical explanation, IMO.

 

Edited by Football Jones

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

I'm curious how much weight FFers put into college production. For me, it's individualistic depending on their situation. Case in point, Joe Mixon. I've said he was one of the toughest players I've ever evaluated despite being very familiar with him. Mixon rarely faced a stacked box & was consistently put in positions that magnified his strengths. There was a ton of projecting you had to with his evaluation.

i do use most all metrics to some degree except BMI, but typically only to validate what I see on the field. If there's a big descrepency, time to take another look.

For me the college production is an important part of the player evaluation. I think it is more significant than the combine data is.

At the same time it is hard to take the college statistics at face value, because of the difference in the level of competition that the players are facing being so lopsided. Its really not easy to try to adjust for that. Many players who have had very good or even great college production have not seen that production translate to the NFL level. I was trying to discuss that in previous posts in this thread when talking about Jamaal Williams looking like a pretty powerful RB at the college level, but that this observation perhaps also pointing to some other flaws in his game, such as speed, burst/acceleration and elusiveness that required him to need to use power to win more at the college level than some of the quicker RB in college have to do.

The college production would be one part of my evaluation of a college prospect and about 25% weight of considering what I see watching cut ups, combine metrics and draft position. I give the greatest weight to draft position, because it is the most predictive metric of them all, and the draft position does factor in things like college production, combine metrics and film study. So the draft position trumps all of these other considerations for me. I respect the NFL teams scouting departments as having more information than I do about these players, and factoring all of those things into their decisions.

All of these bits of information have merit when considered with context, but the order of importance for me is draft position, watching the players, college performance and then combine metrics. The draft position comes first because the other three have been factored into the the NFL teams evaluation when making those decisions.

There are other things such as the players character that are important to NFL teams, and that does influence the draft position as well. But that is not something I really consider in evaluating a college players potential in the NFL and therefore for fantasy.

FWIW I listened to a interview with Aaron Jones by some Packers journalists following the draft. What I learned from that is Jones was an Army kid who moved around quite a bit. He is very respectful calling the journalists sir and saying good things about Jamaal Williams who I guess shares the same agent as Jones. He struck me as a pretty clean cut guy based on that interview, but maybe there are some things there I am not aware of. If there are I would be pretty surprised based on how respectfully he conducted himself. I guess he played basketball in college too.

eta - When making rookie rankings and tiers another thing I consider is how the player fits into the NFL teams offense. If what I saw of the player in college fits what I see the NFL team doing or not, and I consider all of the other players on that NFL team that would be competing for playing time in that offense. So this is what caused me to bump Jones down 5 spots, is seeing Mongomery and at that time Williams ahead of him for playing time, and seeing Williams as different than Jones and Montgomery as far as play style. I thought Williams fit the inside the tackles role more similar to what Eddie Lacy has had with them than Jones, while Jones perhaps more similar to Montgomery and thus behind the other two players in terms of opportunity to play.

I don't really see it that way anymore, but that is the way I saw it at the time I ranked them.

Edited by Biabreakable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Bad_Mo said:

Completely forgot about that 1st and 10 run on Dallas' 16 yard line.  Maybe a split second quicker to the second level, and Jones has another TD run.

Yeah I mostly remembered him running to the outside in this game, but just watching the highlights again he had more than just the TD run on runs to the inside. Its not really a knock on him for me anymore after seeing some other examples of him running inside in the highlights.

I still want to see another game, but I have seen enough effective inside running from Jones to check that box now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Picked him up and started him in one league last week w/Kamara on bye. He looked great, but I won't trust my eyes until I see him against a more legit defense than Dallas sans Shawn Lee. Wouldn't be surprised to see him take over or flop. He wouldn't be the first undersized RB to be (semi) featured. Most recent example I can recall is Justin Forsett a few years ago on the Ravens. Forsett was more developed as a full grown man that year than Jones is now, but was smaller, slower and on a less impressive offense and yet still made waves. Jamaal Charles was a third round pick because he was too small. Not saying he's Jamaal Charles, but he could easily be way better than Forsett.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forsett perhaps a decent comparison. Jones was drafted higher than Forsett however. I think Jones likely a better prospect than Forsett (who I did like a lot) than him but thats a good example of a smaller RB being a featured RB. 

I think there are a lot more examples and better ones than Forsett doing that. Its really not something that is as important to me as I think it is for a lot of people.

To quote Emory Hunt "size is not a skill"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

He wouldn't be the first undersized RB to be (semi) featured

I've seen this a few times.  I don't know what he weighs now, but he doesn't look or run "small" IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

:lol:

Not sure what’s funny. Constantly missed tackles, was very weak at the point of attack, looked slow and shot the wrong hole a few times. 

I didn’t realize who he was and was sad to see it was Jaylon Smith. The injury really ruined him. According to PFF he’s also the Cowboys lowest rated defender along with some guy names Jeff Heath. I also searched him on Twitter and from what I’ve read he’s doing terrible. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Not sure what’s funny. Constantly missed tackles, was very weak at the point of attack, looked slow and shot the wrong hole a few times. 

I didn’t realize who he was and was sad to see it was Jaylon Smith. The injury really ruined him. According to PFF he’s also the Cowboys lowest rated defender along with some guy names Jeff Heath. I also searched him on Twitter and from what I’ve read he’s doing terrible. 

He's leading the team in total tackles and is 2nd to Lee in solo tackles

He's 5 games into his 1st season in the league after sitting out an entire season

Edited by Cowboysfan8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

He's leading the team in total tackles and is 2nd to Lee in solo tackles

He's 5 games into his 1st season in the league after sitting out an entire season

Correct and none of it makes what I said untrue. So again, I don’t know what’s funny. He looks terrible. That’s it. 

Hijack over 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ESPN's Rob Demovsky believes the Packers could start Aaron Jones regardless of Ty Montgomery's (ribs) status.

Jones has upgraded the Packers' run game the last two weeks, and is coming off a dominant showing against Dallas. He profiles as Green Bay's early-down back going forward, with Montgomery likely settling into a passing-game role. Jones is averaging 5.4 YPC and already leads the Packers in rushing. Even if Montgomery returns Sunday, Jones is the favorite for carries.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.