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Aaron Jones - Green Bay RB

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33 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I hate that this came out before my waivers are ran...

That makes my missing out on McKinnon and ending up with Jones seem pretty ok.  

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18 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Knowing what you know now, would you prefer Jones or McKinnon ROS? ;) 

I own Jones everywhere, and McKinnon nowhere, so while my actions are a result of my thinking, they'd color my response to this question as well.

One guy has more competition but a much better situation IMO.  The other guy has a clearer path.

I think McKinnon is safer to be an RB2 or useful flex the rest of the way.  I think Jones could be a league winner.

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I don't know if it was this thread where we we're discussing Jones' trade value but just to put it out there, I traded Jones and Benjamin for Freeman in one. Offered Jones and Fitzgerald for Evans in another but got turned down as I expected.

Anyone trading him..what are you getting?

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On 10/11/2017 at 7:38 PM, JFS171 said:

 

 

This is what many of us are projecting forward. A Jones looked good last week filling in for Ty. We watched a strong performance. Many will plug him in again as it is highly likely Jones will see a lions share once again this week. What comes next? This is where you and I are either investing in, or not? If we had a crystal ball / hindsight what might we see? Do we buy stock and does Jones perform admirable for the ROS and help us win championships? 

What do you think? Short-term fill in, decent play for the ROS nothing out of this world, or a top 10-15 producing fantasy RB for the ROS? 

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8 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

This is what many of us are projecting forward. A Jones looked good last week filling in for Ty. We watched a strong performance. Many will plug him in again as it is highly likely Jones will see a lions share once again this week. What comes next? This is where you and I are either investing in, or not? If we had a crystal ball / hindsight what might we see? Do we buy stock and does Jones perform admirable for the ROS and help us win championships? 

What do you think? Short-term fill in, decent play for the ROS nothing out of this world, or a top 10-15 producing fantasy RB for the ROS? 

I think as long as Ty is healthy he cuts into Jones too much to make Jones a no brainer start, that's why I'm trying to get what I can now.

But what do I know? I'm usually wrong

Edited by Cowboysfan8

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26 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

This is what many of us are projecting forward. A Jones looked good last week filling in for Ty. We watched a strong performance. Many will plug him in again as it is highly likely Jones will see a lions share once again this week. What comes next? This is where you and I are either investing in, or not? If we had a crystal ball / hindsight what might we see? Do we buy stock and does Jones perform admirable for the ROS and help us win championships? 

What do you think? Short-term fill in, decent play for the ROS nothing out of this world, or a top 10-15 producing fantasy RB for the ROS? 

Monty is a full practice participant.  I surely wouldn't say it's "highly likely" Jones will see a lions share this week.

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3 minutes ago, davearm said:

Monty is a full practice participant.  I surely wouldn't say it's "highly likely" Jones will see a lions share this week.

Football Guys experts have it about 2:1 in favor of Jones:Monty, that means on average 14:7 rush ratio in favor of Jones. I don't know how this will play out. Kinda why I am asking for more input.

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22 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Football Guys experts have it about 2:1 in favor of Jones:Monty, that means on average 14:7 rush ratio in favor of Jones. I don't know how this will play out. Kinda why I am asking for more input.

Noone knows except the Packers

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I know Monty is listed as "Full," and while I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, I just question whether he's been hit hard in the ribs, despite his flak jacket.  

IMO it makes no sense to put Monty in any danger of reinjury when Jones has clearly performed well.  Maybe Monty is pushing to play because he sees his role slipping away?  I guess we'll find out on Sunday, but the injury report machinations during the week don't mean much to me.

I still think Jones is the guy for this week.  I think the door is open for Jones to take this job and run with it, and I'm running my teams accordingly (I've owned Jones all season on my dynasty rosters and made aggressive moves to get him in redraft the week before Monty got hurt as I didn't see Monty lasting under that workload).

YMMV.  That's why we play the game - place your bets.

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4 hours ago, JFS171 said:

I know Monty is listed as "Full," and while I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, I just question whether he's been hit hard in the ribs, despite his flak jacket.  

IMO it makes no sense to put Monty in any danger of reinjury when Jones has clearly performed well.  Maybe Monty is pushing to play because he sees his role slipping away?  I guess we'll find out on Sunday, but the injury report machinations during the week don't mean much to me.

I still think Jones is the guy for this week.  I think the door is open for Jones to take this job and run with it, and I'm running my teams accordingly (I've owned Jones all season on my dynasty rosters and made aggressive moves to get him in redraft the week before Monty got hurt as I didn't see Monty lasting under that workload).

YMMV.  That's why we play the game - place your bets.

The notion that Montgomery could get Wally Pipped here seems awfully unlikely IMO.

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14 minutes ago, davearm said:

The notion that Montgomery could get Wally Pipped here seems awfully unlikely IMO.

Aaron Jones looks like a RB when he runs, Montgomery never did, even with some success.

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Aaron Jones looks like a RB when he runs, Montgomery never did, even with some success.

I'm not so sure the Pack want's someone that "looks like a RB" in their backfield unless its clock killing time.  Heck, Lacy looked like a RB (and a couch) and they douched him.  I fully believe they prefer the Slash type player that montgomery is.  In other words, they want someone that can have success at RB, but look like a WR......Eh?

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Aaron Jones looks like a RB when he runs, Montgomery never did, even with some success.

I think Monty fits like a glove in the GB pass happy offense, and in the game he got dinged his runs looked as good as any RB in the NFL.

For FFB, he delivered even with tough matchups in the early season.

I don't think this will be a full blown RBBC but I think Jones has shown he deserves some touches, and the coaches should want that right now to keep Monty fresh and healthy.

My personal opinion is a 75/25 split with Monty seeing the majority of touches, barring another injury/aggravation.

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2 minutes ago, JIMGET said:

I'm not so sure the Pack want's someone that "looks like a RB" in their backfield unless its clock killing time.  Heck, Lacy looked like a RB (and a couch) and they douched him.  I fully believe they prefer the Slash type player that montgomery is.  In other words, they want someone that can have success at RB, but look like a WR......Eh?

Completely disagree with this...if Packers preferred slash type players at running back then why did they draft 3 guys that "look like RB's"?

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Also, I wanted to ad, that I don't think this weeks game will be a good gauge for the ROS.  I'm thinking they ease Monty back in for more like a 50/50 split this week, to see how he reacts.  If he gets through this game unscathed, then 75/25 the rest of the way.

Jones has looked good, but so did Monty in the Chicago game before he got dinged.

Jones also looked good against Dallas, but who doesn't look good against Dallas right now?  Without Lee they are a mess.

$0.02

Edited by OU#1
Typos

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8 minutes ago, OU#1 said:

I think Monty fits like a glove in the GB pass happy offense, and in the game he got dinged his runs looked as good as any RB in the NFL.

For FFB, he delivered even with tough matchups in the early season.

I don't think this will be a full blown RBBC but I think Jones has shown he deserves some touches, and the coaches should want that right now to keep Monty fresh and healthy.

My personal opinion is a 75/25 split with Monty seeing the majority of touches, barring another injury/aggravation.

We will see I guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if Aaron Jones is your new RB in GB.

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19 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

Completely disagree with this...if Packers preferred slash type players at running back then why did they draft 3 guys that "look like RB's"?

Cause you need that guy too....

Most teams have a power back, and a passing back, some are hybrids.  Whom the "feature" back is depends on the team and offense.  The packers have their slash, and they have a slash backup (randall cobb)....they needed a back.

There can be zero debate that the Packers pass to score, and have for many years.  They run to kill the game.  They need both.

And I have multiple shares of Jones, looking to sell ASAP.  No shares of Monty.

Edited by JIMGET
Ownership

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1 hour ago, OU#1 said:

Also, I wanted to ad, that I don't think this weeks game will be a good gauge for the ROS.  I'm thinking they ease Monty back in for more like a 50/50 split this week, to see how he reacts.  If he gets through this game unscathed, then 75/25 the rest of the way.

Jones has looked good, but so did Monty in the Chicago game before he got dinged.

Jones also looked good against Dallas, but who doesn't look good against Dallas right now?  Without Lee they are a mess.

$0.02

36% of Montgomerys career rushing yards occurred in his two games against the Bears last year so him looking good on a few carries against them before being injured says more about how the Bears play the Packers than it does about Mongomery in my opinion.

He has a career average of 4 ypc against teams other than the Bears 96 carries.

Against the Vikings he has 9 rushing attempts 23 yards 5 targets 4 receptions 17 yards.

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6 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

36% of Montgomerys career rushing yards occurred in his two games against the Bears last year so him looking good on a few carries against them before being injured says more about how the Bears play the Packers than it does about Mongomery in my opinion.

He has a career average of 4 ypc against teams other than the Bears 96 carries.

Against the Vikings he has 9 rushing attempts 23 yards 5 targets 4 receptions 17 yards.

Nice find

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

36% of Montgomerys career rushing yards occurred in his two games against the Bears last year so him looking good on a few carries against them before being injured says more about how the Bears play the Packers than it does about Mongomery in my opinion.

He has a career average of 4 ypc against teams other than the Bears 96 carries.

Against the Vikings he has 9 rushing attempts 23 yards 5 targets 4 receptions 17 yards.

To me it speaks volumes that Monty has one 100-yard rushing game in his career ... and so does Jones. 

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Jones has several things working in his favor for the long haul. Monty not being a traditional RB is number one, although he seems to fit for the Pack.

Eyeball test is subjective but he looks the part for me. Appears to be elusive inside, and also have the quickness to get the edge. Very nice combo.

it was obvious from just watching the Dallas game that Rodgers loves the kid. Jones only had one catch in the game, and he apparently ran the wrong route on the play, but still made a sick grab on an important down deep in Dallas territory. You could tell Rodgers was ecstatic. Rodgers was coaching Jones up the whole game. Loved to see that.

McCarthy has been glowing in the media. It's coachspeak, but it's not negative.

As for running style, the Shady comps are obvious. I give you a less obvious one. I see Frank Gore in his game. Jones, like Gore, is very shifty. That running style is what kept Gore in the league so long. Their combine numbers are very similar. Gore is thicker now, but Jones can get there. Gore was 5.9, 217 at combine; Jones 5.9, 208.

Very excited about his prospects.

edit: more combine numbers:

40: Gore 4.58, Jones 4.56

Shuttle: Gore 4.11, Jones 4.20

3 Cone: Gore 6.91, Jones 6.82

Vertical: Gore 34, Jones 37.5

Edited by JackReacher
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4 hours ago, JIMGET said:

Cause you need that guy too....

Most teams have a power back, and a passing back, some are hybrids.  Whom the "feature" back is depends on the team and offense.  The packers have their slash, and they have a slash backup (randall cobb)....they needed a back.

There can be zero debate that the Packers pass to score, and have for many years.  They run to kill the game.  They need both.

And I have multiple shares of Jones, looking to sell ASAP.  No shares of Monty.

This will be a split backfield but I have no idea of the split.  50/50 seems like a good start.  The one thing that makes feel comfortable as a Jones owner is that Monty is dinged and isn't built to handle a full load as a RB.   

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4 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Does McCarthy generally split? I remember a lot of bellcows under him

They didn't really split carries for the first 3 weeks and Mongomery got he majority of the rushing attempts, however they did not run the ball that much either. 19, 10, 12 rushing attempts for Montgomery in those 3 games.

Against the Bears Montgomery was hurt after 5 carries. Williams had 4 and Jones had 13. Williams was hurt in that game as well.Then week 5 Jones had 19 and Williams had one. 

2016 Lacy played the first 5 games in game 4 he had 11 rushing attempts, Starks had 12. In game 5 Lacy had 17 Starks didn't play. Montgomery had 3. Game 6 Montgomery had 9 Dion Jackson and Knile Davis each had 2 and Cobb had 3 with Ripkowski also having 3. Game 7 Montgomery had 6 Jackson 4 Davis 3. Game 8 Montgomery 7 Jackson4 Ripowski 2. Game 9 Starks came back and had 7 Montgomery 3. Game 10 Starks 9 Montgomery 4 Game 11 they acquired Christine Michael 1 Starks 17 Montgomery 1 Game 12 Montgomery 6 Michael 9 Starks 4 and so on.

I would say they prefer to have one guy, but with Lacy injured they split carries between a lot of different players, did not run the ball as much. Knile Davis and Christine Michael were brought in but never really earned the starting role. Starks did have the 17 carry game 11 when he returned from injury, but didn't get many carries in games following that as they were trying Michael and then Montgomery more towards the end of the season.

They split if they have to, but prefer to have one guy be the main RB.

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11 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

It sure felt like starks got too many carries in the Lacy era

Because Lacy was carrying too much Chinese food around his mid section to get all the carries. 

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The main thing I see from looking at how the Packers used many different RB last season is that they were not willing to have Montgomery be the featured RB. He only had one game in 2016 with more than 10 rushing attempts. They mixed in several other RB and just didn't run the ball as much after Lacy was injured.

Fast forward to this season and a lot of talk about giving Montgomery the chance to be their featured RB. He got that chance in week one with 19 rushing attempts but he wasn't particularly effective as a runner. The two weeks following that he had 10 rushing attempts then 12 rushing attempts, then hurt in game 4. They did throw the ball to Montgomery a lot in those two games, 7 targets then 12 targets. So adjusting to another way to get him the ball besides running with him a lot.

Looking at the whole picture though it doesn't seem to me that they can use Montgomery as their featured RB and likely better to have Montgomery split with another RB such as Jones.

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10 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

The main thing I see from looking at how the Packers used many different RB last season is that they were not willing to have Montgomery be the featured RB. He only had one game in 2016 with more than 10 rushing attempts. They mixed in several other RB and just didn't run the ball as much after Lacy was injured.

Fast forward to this season and a lot of talk about giving Montgomery the chance to be their featured RB. He got that chance in week one with 19 rushing attempts but he wasn't particularly effective as a runner. The two weeks following that he had 10 rushing attempts then 12 rushing attempts, then hurt in game 4. They did throw the ball to Montgomery a lot in those two games, 7 targets then 12 targets. So adjusting to another way to get him the ball besides running with him a lot.

Looking at the whole picture though it doesn't seem to me that they can use Montgomery as their featured RB and likely better to have Montgomery split with another RB such as Jones.

I'll agree. And why not design a few plays where they are both in the game at the same time. Talk about options, and ultimate confusion for defenses... Jordy, Adams, Cobb, Allison, Bennett, Rodgers, Monty, Jones, Ripkowski, Williams, ...

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As I understand it Montgomery practiced in full this week. I am not entirely sure about his full health though. I think the rib injury may take another week or two to fully heal.

That report gives the Vikings more to think about as far as preparing for Green Bay tomorrow.

We will see soon enough. I am guessing that the Vikings see more Jones than Montgomery this week though. When Montgomery is fully healthy in later weeks then we will find out if they will split between Jones and Montgomery or if one of them gets the majority of the opportunity or not.

That decision will likely hinge in part on how well Jones does against the Vikings. If Jones plays well (I am hoping not as a Vikings fan) then they may stick with him going forward. If he doesn't then maybe we see them split some more while they are trying to decide who is the best fit.

I tend to think Jones may be a better runner than Montgomery, so I would bet on Jones, but I still expect Montgomery to be used as a change of pace at times, which I think better fits his abilities anyways, as we saw him being used last season.

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Focusing on rush attempts and yards with Montgomery misses the point, IMHO.

Yes, everyone wants an RB1 to have at least 15 carries a game, but a comtinied overlooked factor in this thread is both the receptions and reception yards Montgomery gets. Even if you are not in a PPR, these are absolutely meaningful to Montgomery’s production, usage, and the way GB’s pass-oriented offense is set up.

Agree that Jones is much more a between the tackles runner and that GB and any football team can use both skill sets.

I just don’t see Jones taking over the starting position as some believe he may given how Montgomery has been so effective  and productive in all aspects of the game and how well he fits into this offense with the skill set he has.

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5 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Focusing on rush attempts and yards with Montgomery misses the point, IMHO.

Yes, everyone wants an RB1 to have at least 15 carries a game, but a comtinied overlooked factor in this thread is both the receptions and reception yards Montgomery gets. Even if you are not in a PPR, these are absolutely meaningful to Montgomery’s production, usage, and the way GB’s pass-oriented offense is set up.

Agree that Jones is much more a between the tackles runner and that GB and any football team can use both skill sets.

I just don’t see Jones taking over the starting position as some believe he may given how Montgomery has been so effective  and productive in all aspects of the game and how well he fits into this offense with the skill set he has.

Yeah I don't see it either. Also, I think if Montgomery played against the Cowboys he'd have had a big game too. There were some really big holes for Aaron Jones against a poor D there. Montgomery never saw running lanes that big in the games he played. It seems like a lot of people are quickly assuming Montgomery can't be a good RB because of his history as a WR but he actually has made some big strides already. There is a reason why he was featured as much as he was in the first 3 weeks plus one drive.

The durability issue with Montgomery are legit but questions about whether is he a real running back are not in my mind. He is a real running back.

Also, Jones made quite a few blocking mistakes out there. Montgomery has really worked hard at his protection and has improved a lot in that regard. For a team that passes as much as the Packers that is pretty big. 

 

For this week, I actually don't like either guy much. The ribs still have to be somewhat of an issue for Ty so I think they will split carries and how many snaps they play will depend on the gameflow. If the Pack are playing from behind Ty will outsnap Jones, if they get way up Jones may outsnap Ty this week. If the game is close the whole way then I think the snap count will be close.

I just don't like the split situation against a very good run defense. On a positive note the Packs are getting some OL back but I still don't think either guy can be trusted to do much.

My best guess for this game. Jones 8 carries 31 yards, 1 catch 5 yards. Ty 5 carries 20 yards, 4 catches 20 yards.

Post bye I think Ty will regain his lead dog role.

 

Edited by gradin123

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Benching Ty in both my leagues this week. Don’t like the matchup & tender ribs.

i don’t like Jones this week either really. PPR Ty has bigger upside IMO. 

But I’m gonna give Ty another week to heal before I trust him. One big stick and he could be out for the game with 0-5 points and I’m not comfortable with that. 

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Benching Ty in both my leagues this week. Don’t like the matchup & tender ribs.

i don’t like Jones this week either really. PPR Ty has bigger upside IMO. 

But I’m gonna give Ty another week to heal before I trust him. One big stick and he could be out for the game with 0-5 points and I’m not comfortable with that. 

Anybody else pulling the plug or jumping off the Jones bandwagon? Ty returns to share. I can see this being an extra incentive for both of these guys. Competition inspires.

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1 minute ago, Team Smokin' said:

Anybody else pulling the plug or jumping off the Jones bandwagon? Ty returns to share. I can see this being an extra incentive for both of these guys. Competition inspires.

Don’t have Jones, but I do like the incentive angle and it occurred to me.

However Minnesota is very tough against the run.

I’m not sure I’d want to start Jones either with RBBC in this matchup. 

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11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Don’t have Jones, but I do like the incentive angle and it occurred to me.

However Minnesota is very tough against the run.

I’m not sure I’d want to start Jones either with RBBC in this matchup. 

I'm seeing some love for Jones and then seeing just average RB #3 numbers? Well, with McCoy on a bye, and he better giddy up, gotta start Jones this week. Here's to hoping competition inspires in the Green Bay backfield. MIN rush D kinda tempers my enthusiasm as well. I'd like to see a sneaky TD score and all will be well.

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15 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

- RW.

I wouldn't put too much into that. It'll be a split and McCarthy is hoping to see both play inspired with an extra gear. Great scenario for the Pack to be in. Then, Rodgers to Jordy and Adams play action. Some are predicting a low scoring game. Vegas calls for a 24 - 21 GB. I'll go 24 - 20. So three TD's to go around in Green Bay. Rogers throws 2 and either Ty or Jones gets the other?

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Sitting Monty today (don't have Jones), as my other RB options are Howard, Ingram and Kamara (starting 2 in PPR). I want to see how well Monty responds with his ribs issue before starting. I don't think they'll push him today.

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7 minutes ago, Rileyrott said:

Sitting Monty today (don't have Jones), as my other RB options are Howard, Ingram and Kamara (starting 2 in PPR). I want to see how well Monty responds with his ribs issue before starting. I don't think they'll push him today.

Divisional game... then the Saints and a bye...  If I'm the Pack, I let Montgomery heal with the big picture of the season in mind.  You would think they'd be OK with Jones/Williams.   I'm not sure NFL teams always think that way... Every game might matter in a 16 game season.  I'm sitting Jones for Howard and Kamara too but wouldn't feel horrible about rolling out Jones.  I think he'll be on a lot of benches today. 

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33 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Have Jones...was flexing him if Monty was out...now likely sitting him for Emmanuel Sanders (non ppr)

Was also flexing if Ty was out. Amendola in for me (ppr)

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