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Arodin

1.1 and 1.3 Tactics

1.1 and 1.3 tactica  

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I have the 1.1 and 1.3 this year, and would love to land Fournette AND Davis, whom I have rated pretty much equal.  Of course, the most likely outcome is that 1.2 takes whichever I don't.

Given that I value them equally (no BPA issues), which is more likely to NOT be picked at 1.2:  Fournette or Davis?  Can I "game" this situation to increase my odds?

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Odds are near zero you get both. What you need to decide is, do you want Fournette and Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon or Davis and Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon. 

If you truly have them ranked about the same, you should take Davis IMO. 

 

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I'd take Davis first and even if Fournette goes at #2 then you take Mixon at #3 who is just as likely (possibly MORE likeky) to be as good as Fournette.

To answer the question directly though - I've seen Davis slip past #2 quite often in a few drafts.

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I'm in the minority, but man I think Davis is greatly overrated. I have him as the #5 rookie this year. I'd be hoping Davis goes #2, so I could get Fournette and McCaffery with the #1 and #3.

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This is very very very roster dependent. On yuor roster and the 1.02 pick's. 

He won't pass on Fournette at 1.02, but he may pass on Davis. That, to me, is a better path to go. However having Davis and Mixon isn't a bad consolation prize. Versus Fournette and Mixon. 

All of the above considered... if it were me... I'd go Davis 1.01 and Mixon or Fournette 1.03 unless the 1.02 has no need for a WR. But I like Mixon, a lot. 

If you want it so bad I'd consider offering the guy a trade to move up a slot. Although you aren't a Bears fan so maybe scrap that idea. 

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What is the #2 drafter's previous pattern in picking early in drafts?  For most of the people in my leagues I can guess who they are looking at based on previous drafts and their tendencies.  How are you so certain that the #2 guy will "most likely take the guy I don't"?

 

Does your league value WR or RB over the other position?  If there is a big value difference in your league that may play a role.

 

General tactics are very hard to comment on because there are too many variables that come into play.  I don't think there is a general draft A so B is more likely to fall to pick #3  which seems like the answer you are trying to get.   In a vacuum it seems most dynasty league rankings prefer the longevity of WR's early over RB's. 

 

I am not as high on Davis as some so I wouldn't go with him in the first pick.  Even though you may have those two graded equally going in, you most likely have a preference of the two on who you would rather have.  In this situation I would go with the guy I would prefer to own and hope the other falls one pick. 

Edited by Gally
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Need to know the roster of the guy picking at 2 to really judge your chances. In a vacuum, unlikely the #2 passes on whichever one you don't take.

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Fair point about the other guy's roster, but I was focusing on the general tactics.  Let's assume he either has balanced needs, or will take bpa as he sees it.

But it is an interesting question...if he has a greater need at WR, does that actually affect your drafting tactics?  I dont see many people reaching for Williams over Fournette regardless of need, but could see a need-driven move to Mixon or McCaffery over Davis potentially.

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9 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'm in the minority, but man I think Davis is greatly overrated. I have him as the #5 rookie this year. I'd be hoping Davis goes #2, so I could get Fournette and McCaffery with the #1 and #3.

"Greatly overrated"....all the way down to 5?

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11 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

"Greatly overrated"....all the way down to 5?

That is a pretty big drop off from 1 is it not? I mean, as far as I can tell, that makes me lower on him than anyone else I've seen.

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If you need difference makers sooner, Id go Fournette first, mixon 3rd (assuming davis goes 2nd)

If you are in a position where you can take a player that isnt an instant starter for you, then Davis may be the better long term option, and still get LF or Mixon at 3.

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21 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

If you want it so bad I'd consider offering the guy a trade to move up a slot. Although you aren't a Bears fan so maybe scrap that idea. 

I'll go the other tack and say he should try to get the 1.02 owner to move up to 1.01.

If he wants either Davis or Fournette badly enough, he'll overpay to make sure he gets his guy. If he likes the two about equally, well, then, you weren't going to land them both no matter what. In either case, you'll land at least one of your top two plus additional assets in pocket.

Try to tease out who he's more likely to take and then make noise via the league board, text message, etc. about how thrilled you are to be landing that guy. Psychological warfare is fun. :lol:

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3 hours ago, travdogg said:

That is a pretty big drop off from 1 is it not? I mean, as far as I can tell, that makes me lower on him than anyone else I've seen.

Unless 1.05 is a tier break for you I don't see it as a huge difference, but I was just giving you some $&@". Some people have a clear top 3  "1a" and then a "1b" tier, so it's not really a crazy statement. 

I've also seen Cook go 1.01 so values in the top 5-6 are all over.

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I first need to know if this is a PPR league and what team's 2 roster looks like. If it is a PPR league, then I take Corey Davis 1st. A PPR league increases the chances somebody takes McCaffrey or Mixon over Fournette. Based on the drafts results I've seen, I've seen the top 4 RBs go in various orders in PPR leagues.

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On 5/10/2017 at 10:13 AM, Arodin said:

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 this year, and would love to land Fournette AND Davis, whom I have rated pretty much equal.  Of course, the most likely outcome is that 1.2 takes whichever I don't.

Given that I value them equally (no BPA issues), which is more likely to NOT be picked at 1.2:  Fournette or Davis?  Can I "game" this situation to increase my odds?

Without knowing league scoring, roster makeup of team 2, just based on leagues I have seen so far  I think your odds are a lot better that  Fournette makes it to 3. I know several people who prefer McCaffrey or Mixon to Fournette and I don't know anyone who after the draft who prefers Mike Williams to Davis. So even if team 2 goes RB I would think it could be 1 of 3, they want a WR it's Davis.

If your goal of the draft is to get a RB and WR it's an easy call to go Davis at 1 but I imagine if that was the case you would not be here asking and this is not a positional issue just so much as you want these two players and you don't or can't trade pick 3 to 2.

If this league is not PPR just take Fournette.

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On 5/10/2017 at 0:16 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

To answer the question directly though - I've seen Davis slip past #2 quite often in a few drafts.

I have too.  If I am the OP, I am taking Fournette 1 and letting the chips fall.  If Davis goes 2, oh well, McCaffrey or Mixon are good consolation prizes.

I would say you have a decent chance of getting them both.  Odds are impossible to determine without knowing team 2's roster.

Edited by fightingillini

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I have a similar conumderum with 1.1 and 1.3 in a re-draft.  Debating between Gronk and Lockett.  Who's more likely to slip past 1.2?

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4 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I have a similar conumderum with 1.1 and 1.3 in a re-draft.  Debating between Gronk and Lockett.  Who's more likely to slip past 1.2?

Has to be a pretty heavy keeper to have Lockett considered a top three pick.  I would expect Gronk to go well ahead of Lockett under normal circumstances, so would suggest taking him first.

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2 hours ago, Arodin said:

Has to be a pretty heavy keeper to have Lockett considered a top three pick.  I would expect Gronk to go well ahead of Lockett under normal circumstances, so would suggest taking him first.

No keepers, straight up re-draft.  

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