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Dynasty Joe Williams RB 49ers (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable

Biabreakable

Footballguy
OVERVIEW


It's been a runabout journey from Allentown, Pennsylvania to the NFL draft circuit for Williams. After starring in football and track in high school, he went to Hargrave Military Academy in fall 2011, then attended Connecticut the following year (six yards on three carries in nine games). Williams did not play with the team in 2013 after being suspended in August of that year for credit card theft and illegal use. Moving on to ASA College in New York for the 2014 season, Williams rekindled interest from major programs after being named second-team NJCAA All-American (1,093 yards, seven TD in seven games). He signed with Utah, playing behind Devontae Booker and starting twice when Booker was injured (140-490, seven TD rushing; 11-84 receiving). Williams' journey became more unusual when he decided to retire early in the 2016 season. After seeing multiple Ute running backs go down with injuries, he knew he'd get the call to return -- and boy did he return. Williams finished the year in the top 20 nationally with 1,420 rushing yards, also scoring 10 times in nine contests. He put up 333 yards and four touchdowns against UCLA in his second game back and finished his career with 222 yards and a touchdown in the team's Foster Farms Bowl win over Indiana.


ANALYSIS



STRENGTHS

 Plus athlete. Has get-away burst in small spaces. Flashes breakaway speed to take it to the house if he gets up to the safeties. Sudden second gear to turn the corner or accelerate through line of scrimmage. Carries weight in his lower half, allowing for unique contact balance. Able to recover from hits that bring most runners down. Runs feet through initial contact and blows through arm tackles. Makes defenders earn their tackles and is hard to bring down. Can create with wiggle and power. Has lateral shuffle of a basketball player to slink out of traffic jams and escape outside. Can string moves together on second and third levels. Lowers pads to finish runs with momentum.

WEAKNESSES

 "Retired" for a month before coming back after Utah running back corps was depleted due to injuries. Questions have arisen about his football character and commitment to the game. Ball security issues are a concern; lost six fumbles over 289 carries at Utah. Needs to press line of scrimmage longer before making his cuts. Will run into traffic that he might be able to avoid. Shows occurrences of hesitation if he doesn't have a clean point of entry between tackles. Runs a little too tall approaching line of scrimmage. Non-factor as third-down option. Rarely catches passes and not committed to blocking.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 6-7

SOURCES TELL US

 "Just too many red flags for me. Getting kicked out of UConn for theft was strike one, but then you have his fumbles and his 'retirement'. I just don't want that hassle. Too many players to choose from." -- Area scout for NFC area team

NFL COMPARISON

 Jerick McKinnon

BOTTOM LINE

 Draft grade is affected by some of the character concerns that could preclude his NFL career from taking off. The more tape you watch, the more you become impressed with Williams' ability to keep runs alive that other running backs couldn't. His ability to create yardage for himself is a necessary piece of the puzzle for NFL runners, but his inability to contribute on third downs could hurt his draft stock. Williams has talent as a runner and could fit a roster spot if teams are okay with his background.

-Lance Zierlein LINK
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Stats

Year    School    Conf    Class    Pos    G    Att    Yds    Avg    TD    Tgt    Rec    Yds    Avg    TD    YPT
*2015    Utah    Pac-12    JR    RB    10    104    477    4.6        3    16      11       84      7.6     0     5.25
 2016    Utah    Pac-12    SR    RB     9     210    1407    6.7    10    11        9      107    11.9    0     9.72

Career    Utah                                           314    1884    6.0    13    27    20    191    9.6         0     7.07

Combine/Pro day results

5'11"

40 time 4.41/4.42

3 cone 7.19/6.94

Draft Breakdown 6 games

49ers trade up to take Utah RB Joe Williams in NFL draft

The 49ers made their sixth trade of the NFL draft to move up in the fourth round to select Utah running back Joe Williams. They moved pick Nos. 143 (Round 4) and 161 (Round 5) to Indianapolis for pick 121 less than an hour after announcing a trade for Broncos reserve running back Kapri Bibbs.
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Joe Williams played behind Devontae Booker in 2015 before getting the opportunity to be the starter as a senior in 2016.

In watching his games I naturally compare him to Devontae Booker. He isn't as physical and Booker and doesn't have the same vision and instructs that Booker demonstrates, but he is faster and more athletic. He doesn't run with as good pad level as Booker does, but he does make big plays. The difference in skill and nuance of playing the position also evident in that Booker was used more as a receiver than Joe Williams, although Williams seems capable as a receiver. Williams doesn't always succeed with pass protection, but he recognizes his assignment when asked and meets the defender with enough space for his QB to maneuver. He actually shows some promise to be an ok pass protector in my opinion. 

I spent time recently watching Matt Breida before watching 3 of the 6 games of Joe Williams above. I think Williams is more decisive than Beida and shows more consistent change of direction ability than I have seen from Breida, who is more of a one cut type RB from what I have seen of him. Williams is a bit more fluid, has better footwork and balance.

I am going to watch the other 3 games of Joe Williams. I stopped at 3 so that I had watched both Williams and Breida for the same number of games.

I think Booker significantly better than Joe Williams, but Williams has some promising traits as well.

 
Predicting NFL's 2017 Surprise Impact Rookies

Excerpt:

RB Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers


Not a single collegiate running back played better during the final seven games of the 2016 campaign than Utah's Joe Williams. 

Even so, multiple NFL organizations were wary of the talented runner, because he quit on his team earlier in the season. Those franchises, including the San Francisco 49ers, didn't understand the young man or what he had to endure earlier in life. 

Williams dealt with depression, anxiety and guilt for a long period due to the unfortunate death of his sister from acute myocarditis, per USA Today's Tom Pelissero. After years of struggling with these issues, Williams became mentally and physically exhausted. As a result, he finally decided to get help. 

"I had to get my life in order," he told The MMQB's Peter King. "My mental health was far more important. I was going to do more damage by playing than walking away. I saw a psychiatrist who helped me get my life, not my football, on track."

The running back did nothing football-related for a month as he concentrated on healing. Upon Williams' return to the Utes, he was a new man. He ran for 1,332 yards during the bulk of Utah's Pac-12 schedule and bowl game. 

New 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan saw something special in Williams and pressured general manager John Lynch to draft him in the fourth round. 

"I'm telling you right now: If we don't get him, I'll be sick," Shanahan said before the draft, per King. "I will be contemplating Joe Williams all night." 

The 5'11", 205-pound back with 4.41-second 40-yard dash speed can be the next middle- to late-round running back to produce at a high level in Shanahan's zone-heavy run scheme. 
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When I watched him, I immediately compared him to Tevin Coleman. Good burst, kind of stiff. That being said, being drafted by Shanahan was a good sign.

 
Going to be Debbie Downer here, but 24 years old is a buzzkill for me as it relates to his prospects.  He could throw out a few Coleman like years as part of a committee, but I think those expecting anything more will result in disappointment.

 
SayWhat? said:
Going to be Debbie Downer here, but 24 years old is a buzzkill for me as it relates to his prospects.  He could throw out a few Coleman like years as part of a committee, but I think those expecting anything more will result in disappointment.
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While I understand the sentiment, especially when this chatter is likely geared towards the dynasty angle, does this really matter?  The average NFL career lasts 3.5 years.  Say the guy - since he was hand-picked by Shanahan himself - is a Tevin Coleman type right out of the gates.  So what if he's 24?  

Coleman was RB13 in per-game average in PPR formats last year.  Is there anyone in here expecting more out of Williams?  I would be tickled pink if I owned him and that was his ceiling.  

Carlos Hyde is part of the old regime and comes with injury baggage.  Williams was hand-picked by the current regime.  Not saying that automatically means Hyde is nothing and Williams is the starter or even the lead back in a committee, but I think that a timeshare is certainly plausible and if Williams achieves top-15 PPR status by the time he's 25-26, well then that'd be awesome.  

Disclaimer:  I don't own Williams in any leagues. :)

 
I think him being 24 matters for a couple reasons.  One, he was putting up a nice season this year, I believe his only productive one on his college career (?), as a 23 year old against mostly 19-21 year olds.  Two, there is little Toni chance the Niners are anywhere near where the Falcons are/were in terms of offensive talent and supporting cast.  By the time they get there, I think it's likely they've drafted a more talented and highly regarded RB.  And I don't think Williams is as talented as Coleman is, and he's even less refined.  Add these things up, and I think Williams is being overdrafted in the early to mid 2nd of rookie drafts based mostly on a Peter King fluff piece that likely happens behind the scenes in lots of draft rooms where OC's are pounding the table for their GM's to draft "their" guys.

 
nirad3 said:
While I understand the sentiment, especially when this chatter is likely geared towards the dynasty angle, does this really matter?  The average NFL career lasts 3.5 years.  Say the guy - since he was hand-picked by Shanahan himself - is a Tevin Coleman type right out of the gates.  So what if he's 24?  

Coleman was RB13 in per-game average in PPR formats last year.  Is there anyone in here expecting more out of Williams?  I would be tickled pink if I owned him and that was his ceiling.  

Carlos Hyde is part of the old regime and comes with injury baggage.  Williams was hand-picked by the current regime.  Not saying that automatically means Hyde is nothing and Williams is the starter or even the lead back in a committee, but I think that a timeshare is certainly plausible and if Williams achieves top-15 PPR status by the time he's 25-26, well then that'd be awesome.  

Disclaimer:  I don't own Williams in any leagues. :)
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The age thing does matter for dynasty FF. The "average" NFL career length includes all players. For fantasy purposes this doesn't matter because we all need/want guys that are elite producers and those guys are typically in the league longer than 3 and half years. Plus, being a RB, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect at least one drastically limited/shortened season due to injury. That statement is assuming that Williams is getting enough workload to be fantasy relevant. 

However, I do agree with you and being still being happy with him if I only got a 2 or 3 seasons of startable production... if the price was right. 

 
SayWhat? said:
I think him being 24 matters for a couple reasons.  One, he was putting up a nice season this year, I believe his only productive one on his college career (?), as a 23 year old against mostly 19-21 year olds.  Two, there is little Toni chance the Niners are anywhere near where the Falcons are/were in terms of offensive talent and supporting cast.  By the time they get there, I think it's likely they've drafted a more talented and highly regarded RB.  And I don't think Williams is as talented as Coleman is, and he's even less refined.  Add these things up, and I think Williams is being overdrafted in the early to mid 2nd of rookie drafts based mostly on a Peter King fluff piece that likely happens behind the scenes in lots of draft rooms where OC's are pounding the table for their GM's to draft "their" guys.
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Has anyone ever really qualified and quantified this perceived difference between 19-21 year old players and slightly older players?  

2nd round for Williams is insane, but if you can get a guy with RB13 ceiling later in the draft, sounds like a pretty good dart throw.... regardless of age, and if that age difference is the reason he put up more inflated stats.... which is debatable to begin with.

 
Borden said:
The age thing does matter for dynasty FF. The "average" NFL career length includes all players. For fantasy purposes this doesn't matter because we all need/want guys that are elite producers and those guys are typically in the league longer than 3 and half years. Plus, being a RB, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect at least one drastically limited/shortened season due to injury. That statement is assuming that Williams is getting enough workload to be fantasy relevant. 

However, I do agree with you and being still being happy with him if I only got a 2 or 3 seasons of startable production... if the price was right. 
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I understand this.  But in the Coleman comp, and especially since there is no other "Coleman comp" on the Niner roster, it would stand to reason that he would have at least an outside chance at "quick impact", much like Coleman had.  Not saying Williams will achieve RB13 status in his 2nd year, but if he's RB20 by his 3rd year, he's 27 and a starting option in most leagues.

 
nirad3 said:
I understand this.  But in the Coleman comp, and especially since there is no other "Coleman comp" on the Niner roster, it would stand to reason that he would have at least an outside chance at "quick impact", much like Coleman had.  Not saying Williams will achieve RB13 status in his 2nd year, but if he's RB20 by his 3rd year, he's 27 and a starting option in most leagues.
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I haven't watched Joe yet so I'm just going by his Draft Profile but he doesn't seem like he's strong in the passing game. "Non-factor as third-down option. Rarely catches passes and not committed to blocking." Coleman had a lot of production from the passing game last year. Plus, Coleman was on one of last years elite offences. I don't think the 9ers will be able to say the same thing any time soon. So it will take time for him to learn to what he needs to and also time for this offence to find it's self. And time is not on Williams side. Especially when you consider that, as a RB, he's likely going to lose a significant amount of time to injury at some point.

Again, I'm not saying there isn't a chance and for a late lottery ticket, I not going to fault anyone.

 
nirad3 said:
Has anyone ever really qualified and quantified this perceived difference between 19-21 year old players and slightly older players?  

2nd round for Williams is insane, but if you can get a guy with RB13 ceiling later in the draft, sounds like a pretty good dart throw.... regardless of age, and if that age difference is the reason he put up more inflated stats.... which is debatable to begin with.
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I made an attempt at looking at this a couple years ago. LINK

For this study I set the bar pretty high. So if you would be happy with a season or two of RB 2 level perfromance for fantasy, this doesn't really address that. My sample size of players are the ones above that threshold for the most part.

The average number of RB 1 seasons for all RB in this study was two seasons. You may get some RB 2 or RB 3 seasons in there that might still be useful that this doesn't account for, but a RB, even the best of the best will not usually perform at this high of a level for more than two seasons.

Notes from the 24 year old rookies

The 24 year old group is a bit strange because the sample is so small with only seven players from this group qualifying for the top 150. It is also anomalous because of Priest Holmes unusual career path of having three of his best seasons occurring when he was 28 to 30 years old, when most RB are seeing their performance decline. In fact most of this group did not have a 40VBD season until in their fourth season at 27 years old.

The 24 year old group gets 86 VBD less than the average over their career.

Dorsey Levens had his best seasons in year four and then year six. His 27 and 29 years with likely an injury in between.

Harvey Williams didn’t have a 40 VBD season until he was 27 years old. His fourth season. He repeated that in his fifth season at 28 and was not useful after that.

Shonn Greene also didn’t have a 40VBD season until he was 27 years old. He did not repeat that.

Olandis Gary is the only RB from this group who had a 40VBD rookie season. He had 14VBD the season following that then was done.

Andre Ellington made the list on points per game with only 12 VBD in his second season.

Rashad Jennings made the list on points per game in his fifth season at 28 years old because he only has 12 VBD in that season. He is still active.

The group really underperforms the average during their first three seasons, barely having above replacement level performance. Then performs well enough in season four and five for RB2 numbers, although still being below the average for those seasons. This group outperforms the average in seasons six (age 29) by 5 VBD and season seven (age 30) by 8 VBD before falling off.

Antwain Smith was 25 years old as a rookie. He had 16VBD as a rookie and 34 in his second season. Then after two zero seasons he had 78 VBD at age 29 and 110 VBD at age 30.

Mike Anderson was 27 years old as a rookie. He had 99 VBD as a rookie then 58 VBD when he was 31 years old.

For the most part this group of 24 and older players does not do well as a rookie unless they are in a Mike Shanahan offense
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Devontae Booker (who kept Joe Williams on the bench in 2015) was a 24 year old rookie.

One idea I have kicked around is that a younger player has more room to grow and develop their skill set, compared to an older player, who may already be playing at or nearer to their peak level coming into the NFL.

RB careers tend to peak at age 25. 

A RB will usually have the best years of their career in their first six seasons. The rookie season is the worst of these six seasons on average.

So a 24 year old rookie is peaking in their second season. There is less hope for improvement I think because of this.

Players who were 24 or older in their rookie season only represented 4.6% of the entire sample. So that is likely good reason to pause about the prospect right there. 

 
Definitely a dart throw. I took him in the because the pickings were slim. The two positives are a) Hyde appears to be the only player standing between him starting b) Hyde has not played more than 13 games in a season. I am just hoping I can flip him for something better if and when he assumes the starter role. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Notes from the 24 year old rookies

Devontae Booker (who kept Joe Williams on the bench in 2015) was a 24 year old rookie.

One idea I have kicked around is that a younger player has more room to grow and develop their skill set, compared to an older player, who may already be playing at or nearer to their peak level coming into the NFL.

RB careers tend to peak at age 25. 

A RB will usually have the best years of their career in their first six seasons. The rookie season is the worst of these six seasons on average.

So a 24 year old rookie is peaking in their second season. There is less hope for improvement I think because of this.

Players who were 24 or older in their rookie season only represented 4.6% of the entire sample. So that is likely good reason to pause about the prospect right there. 
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I think there was a different study that showed that running backs who played to 28 tended to have their best year at 28. 

I dont really trust a study that says running backs peak at 25 without knowing that it accounts for the number of backs who "peak" during their first contract, or the number who "peak" as a backup the year their starter gets hurt, or who get hurt and don't play again,  or who play for a year or two then lose their job, etc.  

When did Tre mason peak?  Well, I guess he peaked early because then the rams drafted Gurley.  When did Adrian Peterson peak?  Lesean McCoy? Tomlinson?  If you think your guy is a stud you aren't worried about them hitting an age 25 cutoff.  If your guy loses his job it doesn't matter how old he was when his skills peaked because he wasn't getting the work.  

 
Fred you do understand what an average is.

Using air quotes and constantly repeating the word you take umbrage with isn't a very open way to try to talk about this. Why not just ask what I mean by peak if you really have a strong reaction to this idea.  If you think it is worthless then please just move on.

There are many studies that show a RB peaking between their age 25 and age 27 seasons in terms of their performance. How you want to interpret a "peak" is debatable I am talking about the players best performance statistically during their career which tends to be at around 25 years old. There is more dramatic decline for RB at 28 years old, it is just that most of these RB are having their best seasons earlier in their careers, than later in their careers.

I don't think I said that each players unique situation didn't have an effect on how the players careers played out. It most certainly has. You can look at each of the examples on a case by case basis, that is what I did, and what the averages are derived from.

The 24 and older RB who were successful, most of them had to wait several years before they got the opportunity to do so. Their careers are peaking later, 27 years old for a lot of them, but I think it is worth speculating that they may have been even better earlier on in their careers, if they had the opportunity to do so, as this is the pattern of the players who are coming into the league younger than that, or the majority of them.

 
nirad3 said:
Has anyone ever really qualified and quantified this perceived difference between 19-21 year old players and slightly older players?  

2nd round for Williams is insane, but if you can get a guy with RB13 ceiling later in the draft, sounds like a pretty good dart throw.... regardless of age, and if that age difference is the reason he put up more inflated stats.... which is debatable to begin with.
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Logic would dictate that it makes a difference.

 
Biabreakable said:
Fred you do understand what an average is.

Using air quotes and constantly repeating the word you take umbrage with isn't a very open way to try to talk about this.
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Yes,  I understand what an average is, but I put quotes around "peak" to highlight the word that needed to be clearly defined, not to pick a fight. 

Here's a couple studies and their explanations for why "peak" is so hard to define. These are older articles and the point isn't to use their conclusions verbatim because the NFL has changed a lot over the years. I just don't feel comfortable with studies that define the rb "peak" age as 24, especially if you're using it to discuss whether a 24 year old rookie has already peaked due to his age.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/215283-nfl-aging-curves-by-position-rookie-qbs-third-year-wrs-and-age-30-rbs

Running backs tend to peak around 22 to 25, specifically at 23 and 24. Fantasy points per attempt seem to have, more or less, a triangular pattern from 21 to 26, but then it ever-so-slightly increases with no set pattern until age 32.This can most likely be attributed to selective sampling. The longer a running back plays, the more chance for them to peak later in their careers, a la John Riggins.In addition, if a guy is playing into his early-to-mid 30s, chances are he’s been productive late in his career; if a guy fades away at age 31, with, say, a drop of 500 rushing yards from his previous year, he’s going to get little carries the next year—if he isn’t retired by then.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/age.htm

I found 77 24-year-old running backs in my database. 44 of them did better at 25 than 24, and 33 did worse. Thus 57% of all the backs I considered improved from age 24 to age 25.

Sure, it's true that many backs in the study improved or decline for reasons having nothing to do with their age -- injuries, changing teams, a change in surrounding personnel or coaching staff, etc. These are all things that this study does not account for. The idea is to collect enough data that these external factors even out (e.g. the same percentage of 24-year-olds changed teams as 28-year-olds). I'd be more confident in the results if I had more data, but for now this is the best I can do.

Let's organize this into bigger groups in order to extract the general trend:

(See article for graph) 

This tends to suggest that the peak period for running backs is age 27-28. As a group, running backs under 27 tend to improve, and running backs over 27 tend to decline.

Note that these results describe a general phenomenon, and are not to be taken as a prediction about any individual running back. 

 
To illustrate the point,  check out these two articles: 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/age-of-decline-rb1/

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 24

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 27

Also check out this article by Adam Harstad (the artist formerly known as ssog). He did a great job on a similar topic, but talking about years remaining. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiP18

 
CSN Bay Area's Matt Maiocco believes fourth-round rookie Joe Williams has a "legitimate chance" to "immediately unseat" Carlos Hyde as the starter.

Williams has so many things working in his favor. He was handpicked by coach Kyle Shanahan, who banged the table for him in the 49ers' draft room, even when GM John Lynch left Williams off the team's draft board. RBs coach Bobby Turner also personally stayed in touch with Williams throughout the draft process and also campaigned for him. Hyde is entering the final year of his contract for a regime that has zero ties to him and has proven injury-prone. This could be a two-headed backfield for 2017 before Williams takes over as the lead back in 2018.

Related: Carlos Hyde
 
Source: CSN Bay Area 
May 17 - 1:34 PM
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bostonfred said:
To illustrate the point,  check out these two articles: 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/age-of-decline-rb1/

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 24

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 27

Also check out this article by Adam Harstad (the artist formerly known as ssog). He did a great job on a similar topic, but talking about years remaining. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiP18
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This is the type of debate I used you come to these boards for. Love it.

 
bostonfred said:
To illustrate the point,  check out these two articles: 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/age-of-decline-rb1/

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 24

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 27

Also check out this article by Adam Harstad (the artist formerly known as ssog). He did a great job on a similar topic, but talking about years remaining. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiP18
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Ahh, those articles are a great read.

 
I think if Hyde gets hurt and Williams has a 1k season in 2017, nobody is gonna give a damn about how old he is in 2018.

 
chinawildman said:
I think if Hyde gets hurt and Williams has a 1k season in 2017, nobody is gonna give a damn about how old he is in 2018.
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And if he doesn't get a chance or struggles when he does, then he's Devonte Booker...an easily replaceable 4th rounder that's 25 years old in his second NFL season.

 
nirad3 said:
While I understand the sentiment, especially when this chatter is likely geared towards the dynasty angle, does this really matter?  The average NFL career lasts 3.5 years.  Say the guy - since he was hand-picked by Shanahan himself - is a Tevin Coleman type right out of the gates.  So what if he's 24?  

Coleman was RB13 in per-game average in PPR formats last year.  Is there anyone in here expecting more out of Williams?  I would be tickled pink if I owned him and that was his ceiling.  

Carlos Hyde is part of the old regime and comes with injury baggage.  Williams was hand-picked by the current regime.  Not saying that automatically means Hyde is nothing and Williams is the starter or even the lead back in a committee, but I think that a timeshare is certainly plausible and if Williams achieves top-15 PPR status by the time he's 25-26, well then that'd be awesome.  

Disclaimer:  I don't own Williams in any leagues. :)
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Joe might have similar qualities to tevin but he doesn't look as dynamic imo. Also, it's incredibly unlikely that the 49ers offense approaches the 2016 Falcons in the next few years.  So you can call it rb13 ceiling but that seems really improbable to hit. 

 
bostonfred said:
To illustrate the point,  check out these two articles: 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/age-of-decline-rb1/

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 24

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

This article shows a very clear graph with an increase until age 27

Also check out this article by Adam Harstad (the artist formerly known as ssog). He did a great job on a similar topic, but talking about years remaining. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiP18
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Fred thank you for the thoughtful responses.

A "peak" of an average is kind of a contradictory statement in itself. So I can see reason for confusion about the meaning of that.

I have read the things that you link. They are good sources. I have read a lot more on this subject in the past and I have discussed this topic extensively over the years as well.

While many of these studies will use the same data in their study (note many will have some differences in sample size somewhere, and also calculations)  however they organize the information does have an impact of the results. It is a matter of perspective about what the "peak" is. Is the peak the very highest point of the players career? Or is it the average of when the most of the players have their best seasons?

Using the first perspective, which is what I was talking about,  age 25 would be the highest scoring season considering all of the players together. It is consistently the age 25 season across 4 decades. You see this in the breaking down the decades graphic here This uses fantasy points per game.

The second perspective is looking more at where the players decline begins, rather than what their peak was. A lot of these players will have a few good seasons from 25-27 so those three years together could be considered the peak for the players career. The article by Seifert in your second link is only considering rushing yards,

In my study I was considering VBD*PPG/2 for my sample and accounting for their performance each year, then partitioning the 150 player sample by age or draft position My study is measuring more than just rushing yards or PPG. The VBD is important because dynasty time frames scale to full seasons, not just games.

Year 3 of the RBs career was 33 VBD which is the highest VBD scoring year for the overall group. Year 6 was the second best VBD year for the whole group. 

The majority of the RB were 22 years old when they entered the league, the third year being their age 25 season. Some of the age 26 best seasons were in the RB 3rd season, but they were 23 years old entering the league.

There are not very many examples of 24 year old rookie RB. Most of them have not been successful enough to make this top 150 players in my study. The ones who were did not score a lot of points right away. The whole sample is skewed by Preist Holmes in a big way, and his best season happened to be his 6th in the league. Priest Holmes likely affects the whole sample because of how prolific but out of step his career was compared to the other 149 RB careers.

**** Vermeil is a coach who would funnel all the TD through his RB, Faulk then Priest. So he adds to these outliers as well. Faulk and Priest great players for any coach, but not any coach was getting that many TD to their RB as Vermiel. So that throws things off as well, in regards to Priest Holmes part of the sample.

 
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No worries Fred.

In the end every player is unique and none of us know what is going to happen. I think the history of the players can give some insight into what might happen, based on what has happened before, but obviously each players career has its own circumstances/destiny or whatever you want to call it.

From what I have watched of the players I think Joe WIlliams has better change of direction ability than Matt Breida. although Breida does have some good plays as well. I don't think Williams is as good as Booker was coming out of Utah. I consider Williams a tier 3 RB prospect. 

Carlos Hyde should be the primary RB because he is more talented than Williams in my opinion. If WIlliams were better at catching the ball, then I could see more early opportunity for him. I have seen Williams try to pass block more than they were asking him to be a receiver. Which is kind of strange when you consider Williams change of direction abilities being an asset on screens and dump offs. Utah used Booker as a receiver a lot more than they used Williams. So it is not like this wasn't part of their offense before WIlliams became their starter. But I applied the same logic regarding Jordan Howards use as a receiver compared to Tevin Coleman as well.  :shrug:

 
nirad3 said:
Guess I'm not a very logical person.  So do explain, Doc.   :towelwave:
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Bodies mature physcially on their own, and an older player would also have had more time to spend to devlop his body in the weight room and through training regimens laid out for them. 

Of course there is a point of diminishing return once a player ages to a certain point. However that point is well beyond 24.

It has to be some advantage physically - the concern with an "older" rookie also has to do with the fact that they've already developed into the player they will be limiting the upside.

None of this says William can not be a success in the NFL of course - just adds some caution to the evaluation.

 
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I think more than his age, the jump to running in the NFL is going to expose Williams more.  People are looking at the resume he put on paper after he "unretired" as a significant turning point, but those were some really bad run Ds he was putting the numbers up on.  The difference in the NFL Ds is going to be a lot for his set of skills and abilities to overcome.  IMO Hyde is a whole lot more talented than Williams is and it will take an injury to get him meaningful work.  I just don't see Williams as more than a backup level RB.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Good call!  It's eerie how analagous this situation is.  
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Pretty sure you get the point.  You aren't always buying low....because a player value has dipped down.  Values can go down to zero.

 
Bronco Billy said:
I think more than his age, the jump to running in the NFL is going to expose Williams more.  People are looking at the resume he put on paper after he "unretired" as a significant turning point, but those were some really bad run Ds he was putting the numbers up on.  The difference in the NFL Ds is going to be a lot for his set of skills and abilities to overcome.  IMO Hyde is a whole lot more talented than Williams is and it will take an injury to get him meaningful work.  I just don't see Williams as more than a backup level RB.
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Yeah, that article you linked hint at the Pac-12 and Indiana having stout run defenses.... :lol:

 
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