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Kyle Rudolph.....The Forgotten TE (1 Viewer)

FreeBaGeL

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
Kyle Rudolph is an interesting case.  He finished as TE2 last year overall (only slightly lower in PPG), is 27 years old, and is returning to a team that will look very much the same next year as it did last year, yet he currently sits somewhere around TE15 in most dynasty rankings.

So where are we with this guy?  Did he just burn people too many times to the point where people were so tired of hearing "this is the year for him" that they no longer cared when it finally WAS the year?  Do we all think he's going to be a one year wonder, or has he turned a corner to the point where he's going to be a solid ~800 yards/yr receiver from here on out?  If not a one year wonder is he only good for as long as Bradford is around, and if so is that really a bad thing given that Bradford looks like the starter for the foreseeable future?

I honestly haven't seen much of Rudolph, but he just screams "buy" to me.  It's crazy to pull away the name and see what we're looking at here.  A guy who has pedigree, probably isn't even half way through his career yet, and just finished as the #2 scorer at his position but can currently be had for the prices of a mid-level backup at that position.

I'm trying to think offhand of previous TEs that had a mid-career breakout like this to examine if they had indeed turned a corner or if they faded back into obscurity.  The only two I can think of offhand are Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker, both of which kept their production going afterwards.  Olsen actually seems like a pretty decent comp as he similarly always had that lingering hype like Rudolph but just couldn't quite turn that corner to pay it off until his 6th season.

ETA: Ben Watson possibly an example of a guy who broke out late and then immediately regressed, but his "breakout" was much smaller.

 
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I think he led the NFL in targets for TE's and I don't think that was the plan or something he'll do again. It's what happens when your first round rookie WR is so sorry he can't get on the field, your #1 WR is a second year 5th round draft pick who battled some injuries and your #2 WR is an UDFA late bloomer-also in large part because there was no one else to catch the ball.

If you can find anyone willing to pay for him based on what he did last year I'd be doing the opposite of buying.

Barnidge fits mold of late breakout and regression. Cameron had the big year 3 breakout and regression. Olsen took so long because he was stuck in the Martz offense. Delanie I'll never understand, he could not catch the ball in San Fran, I had zero idea he'd ever amount to anything.

 
He's definitely helped by Bradford's presence.  Losing Bradford wouldn't necessarily be his demise but would be something to watch.  I doubt that's a threat any time soon anwyay.

He's also inflated by Bradford's presence.  I don't think he's as good as his numbers last year but they are, but Bradford's going to make him better than the years prior.

I think Rudolph regresses moderately from last year.  Call it TE7 or 8, quite startable, but not going to dominate anything.

Gary Barnidge is another breakout candidate and I think is a very good comparison numbers wise.

 
Part of the reason he ranked as high as he did last year was due to injuries to several other TE's. In 0 ppr leagues, he ranked 7th in fantasy ppg and was about 0.75 of a fantasy point better than 6 other TE's. Rudolph had a ton more targets than any other season, but like many other TE's, his year end ranking will be somewhat dependent on his TD output.

His ADP is currently TE 10, which is probably around the right spot for him. He may go a little earlier or a little bit later, but I don't think he takes the leap to the Gronk / Kelce / Reed level (when they are healthy). I would still feel more comfortable with most of the other guys getting drafted ahead of him (Olsen, Eifert, etc.). 

I wouldn't say his production was a fluke but his ranking may have been. He ranked TE3 in 0 PPR last year, but his 2016 fantasy point total would have ranked 7th the season before and 6th the season before that (and with one less TD that year he would have slipped to TE9).

Basically, IMO he's a startable fantasy TE that won't be a difference maker and won't kill you, but the days of getting him for pennies on the dollar will likely be gone. Last year his ADP was as TE21 and he delivered TE3 numbers. You can't get him for that anymore, and I doubt he ranks that high again this year. At TE10 with a likely return as TE7 or TE8, his rate of return should be way less than last year.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Part of the reason he ranked as high as he did last year was due to injuries to several other TE's. In 0 ppr leagues, he ranked 7th in fantasy ppg and was about 0.75 of a fantasy point better than 6 other TE's. Rudolph had a ton more targets than any other season, but like many other TE's, his year end ranking will be somewhat dependent on his TD output.

His ADP is currently TE 10, which is probably around the right spot for him. He may go a little earlier or a little bit later, but I don't think he takes the leap to the Gronk / Kelce / Reed level (when they are healthy). I would still feel more comfortable with most of the other guys getting drafted ahead of him (Olsen, Eifert, etc.). 

I wouldn't say his production was a fluke but his ranking may have been. He ranked TE3 in 0 PPR last year, but his 2016 fantasy point total would have ranked 7th the season before and 6th the season before that (and with one less TD that year he would have slipped to TE9).

Basically, IMO he's a startable fantasy TE that won't be a difference maker and won't kill you, but the days of getting him for pennies on the dollar will likely be gone. Last year his ADP was as TE21 and he delivered TE3 numbers. You can't get him for that anymore, and I doubt he ranks that high again this year. At TE10 with a likely return as TE7 or TE8, his rate of return should be way less than last year.
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Being available is part of the game. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Kyle Rudolph is an interesting case.  He finished as TE2 last year overall (only slightly lower in PPG), is 27 years old, and is returning to a team that will look very much the same next year as it did last year.
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No it won't.

Last season the Vikings lost 3 starting tackles early on in the season. Loadholt, Smith and Kalil. They brought in Jake Long to play left tackle and he was an upgrade over TJ Clemmings and the other non options the Vikings did not try to play over him. Long got injured pretty quickly and it was back to Clemmings, who is terrible.

The team lost their starting QB in the peaseason which caused them to trade for Bradford, who had to learn on the fly and he did remarkably well despite no chemistry, timing, practice with the team developed during the offseason.

The team had Norv Turner who inexplicably changes the game plan that was working prior to the bye and starts calling deeper drops and gets Bradford smacked around a lot. Until Norv Truner decides to quit and then offense was redesigned by TE coach interum OC Pat Shurmur.

Kyle Rudolph sucks at blocking. The Vikings let him run more routes especially with Diggs ailing. Bradford was getting rid of the ball quickly (because he has to and is actually good at that)  and too many times (on 3rd down) would check down to Rudolph, which opposing teams were allowing because Rudolph was still not converting the 1st downs after the catch.

Kyle Rudolph's 2016 season a direct result of the offenses dysfunction last year. He should never lead the team in targets. 6.36 yards per target is below average. Rudolph had about 50 targets more than that level of production deserves. The Vikings have much better options in the passing game than Rudolph.

The Vikings are locked in with Rudolph this year, but in 2018 they can save 6 million in cap space (not much dead money after this year) and they should because Rudolph is not worth being one of the top 5 highest players on the team, which he is and will be in 2018.

The Vikings had no running game last year and that is going to change with the addition of Dalvin Cook and upgrades at both tackle positions in free agency. 

Kyle Rudolph is one of the "face of the franchise" type of guys for Spielman, which means I will likely have to keep watching Rudolph even though I think he is way overpayed for what he can do.

In 2015 Kyle Rudolph had 73 targets in 16 games. That is more the level of opportunity he should get in this offense. In 2016 his targets were almost twice that. That will not be the same as last year.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Part of the reason he ranked as high as he did last year was due to injuries to several other TE's. In 0 ppr leagues, he ranked 7th in fantasy ppg and was about 0.75 of a fantasy point better than 6 other TE's. Rudolph had a ton more targets than any other season, but like many other TE's, his year end ranking will be somewhat dependent on his TD output.

His ADP is currently TE 10, which is probably around the right spot for him. He may go a little earlier or a little bit later, but I don't think he takes the leap to the Gronk / Kelce / Reed level (when they are healthy). I would still feel more comfortable with most of the other guys getting drafted ahead of him (Olsen, Eifert, etc.). 

I wouldn't say his production was a fluke but his ranking may have been. He ranked TE3 in 0 PPR last year, but his 2016 fantasy point total would have ranked 7th the season before and 6th the season before that (and with one less TD that year he would have slipped to TE9).

Basically, IMO he's a startable fantasy TE that won't be a difference maker and won't kill you, but the days of getting him for pennies on the dollar will likely be gone. Last year his ADP was as TE21 and he delivered TE3 numbers. You can't get him for that anymore, and I doubt he ranks that high again this year. At TE10 with a likely return as TE7 or TE8, his rate of return should be way less than last year.
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Good points.  I probably should have specified that I was kind of thinking in dynasty terms (I tend to forget all about redraft this time of year), where he currently has an ADP of TE15.

You make good points about TE scoring as a whole being down last year and where his numbers would have rated in a typical year.  I guess the question then becomes what is a middle of the road TE1 worth.

Zach Ertz is an interesting comp on that front.  Ertz has pretty well settled into that zone, finished with basically identical PPG to Rudolph last year, and is only 1 year younger yet he is going off the board as TE8 in dynasty startups.  I would prefer Ertz as well, but that seems like a big difference.  Ertz does have a longer history of production and more potential upside with his QB, but he also has a whole new wrath of potential target hogs coming to town (particularly Alshon) and probably has more potential downside in his QB as well.

 
It's funny. Everyone forgets it was a down year for TE scoring when talking about Kelce's TE1 finish but not when talking about Rudolph's TE2/3 finish. FWIW, I don't own him anywhere, but just agree with FB that he's an interesting case. I think Waldman mentioned that what had held Rudolph back for years was that the OL was weak so he was asked to stay in and block more. Looking forward, his volume is obviously tied to Bradford. Rudolph could probably do more, but Bradford really likes to check down to him, so in redraft I'll probably grab some Rudolph shares. Not sure what to expect in dynasty, though. He's definitely young and talented enough to be higher than TE15 in dynasty rankings. If he has another solid season but gets cut, I could see someone paying him well and thus utilizing him heavily. 

I don't know much about his pass blocking, but this is all I could come up with on a quick search: https://www.profootballfocus.com/signature-stats-pass-blocking-efficiency-rbs-and-tes/

Apparently he was pretty good at it 3 years ago.

 
Biabreakable said:
No it won't.

Last season the Vikings lost 3 starting tackles early on in the season. Loadholt, Smith and Kalil. They brought in Jake Long to play left tackle and he was an upgrade over TJ Clemmings and the other non options the Vikings did not try to play over him. Long got injured pretty quickly and it was back to Clemmings, who is terrible.

The team lost their starting QB in the peaseason which caused them to trade for Bradford, who had to learn on the fly and he did remarkably well despite no chemistry, timing, practice with the team developed during the offseason.

The team had Norv Turner who inexplicably changes the game plan that was working prior to the bye and starts calling deeper drops and gets Bradford smacked around a lot. Until Norv Truner decides to quit and then offense was redesigned by TE coach interum OC Pat Shurmur.

Kyle Rudolph sucks at blocking. The Vikings let him run more routes especially with Diggs ailing. Bradford was getting rid of the ball quickly (because he has to and is actually good at that)  and too many times (on 3rd down) would check down to Rudolph, which opposing teams were allowing because Rudolph was still not converting the 1st downs after the catch.

Kyle Rudolph's 2016 season a direct result of the offenses dysfunction last year. He should never lead the team in targets. 6.36 yards per target is below average. Rudolph had about 50 targets more than that level of production deserves. The Vikings have much better options in the passing game than Rudolph.

The Vikings are locked in with Rudolph this year, but in 2018 they can save 6 million in cap space (not much dead money after this year) and they should because Rudolph is not worth being one of the top 5 highest players on the team, which he is and will be in 2018.

The Vikings had no running game last year and that is going to change with the addition of Dalvin Cook and upgrades at both tackle positions in free agency. 

Kyle Rudolph is one of the "face of the franchise" type of guys for Spielman, which means I will likely have to keep watching Rudolph even though I think he is way overpayed for what he can do.

In 2015 Kyle Rudolph had 73 targets in 16 games. That is more the level of opportunity he should get in this offense. In 2016 his targets were almost twice that. That will not be the same as last year.
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Good insight.

I think if we're nitpicking we can come up with a list like this for basically any team.  I would say the Vikings probably made among the fewest changes to their offense year over year when compared to most other teams in the league.

Compared to many of the other guys being drafted as starting TEs where 4 are on new teams entirely, 3 saw their team add a significant WR in trade/FA (Cooks, Alshon, Pryor), and 3 saw their team draft a WR in the 1st round of the draft (plus who knows how Carolina's targets will be re-distributed with McCaffrey potentially working out of the slot a good amount), his situation is pretty stable.

I agree with you that the line getting starters back could make a big difference, though checking down on short passes is still in Bradford's comfort zone even when he has time.

 
Mavis said:
Being available is part of the game. 
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Let's try this again. Over the past three seasons combined, Rudolph ranked 13th in fantasy ppr in 0 ppr leagues. The #20 ranked TE in that time scored 0.7 ppg less than Rudolph. In that same time frame, Gronk was the #1 ranked TE based on fantasy ppg and outscored Rudolph by nearly 5.5 points per game . . . almost as much as Rudolph scored. 

There is a HUGE difference in having a TE with a sizeable scoring advantage each week. Rudolph is not one of those tight ends. Historically, he's been a replacement level fantasy TE and a decent fantasy #2 TE. He had very little scoring advantage over a bottom tier fantasy TE2.

In this case, being available doesn't really help your team. A fantasy team with one of the elite scoring TE's would be much better off with Gronk and a late round TE than one with Rudolph (Gronk + replacement TE scoring when Gronk is out will outscore Rudolph).

If people want to argue that Rudolph's role changed and will continue to change and his numbers will increases, I don't have a great counter argument to that other than I don't think that will be the case. There is very little scoring difference between a mid to bottom range fantasy TE1 vs. a mid range TE2. They are almost interchangeable. As I mentioned earlier, people will go after him this year based on last year's numbers, so his price tag will be much higher this year (in any format). I don't think he will be a terrible pick, but I don't think he will out produce his draft spot by all that much and in fact may not have much upside at all at his acquisition costs. Put another way, I don't see him improving on 132 targets and 83 receptions.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Good insight.

I think if we're nitpicking we can come up with a list like this for basically any team.  I would say the Vikings probably made among the fewest changes to their offense year over year when compared to most other teams in the league.

Compared to many of the other guys being drafted as starting TEs where 4 are on new teams entirely, 3 saw their team add a significant WR in trade/FA (Cooks, Alshon, Pryor), and 3 saw their team draft a WR in the 1st round of the draft (plus who knows how Carolina's targets will be re-distributed with McCaffrey potentially working out of the slot a good amount), his situation is pretty stable.

I agree with you that the line getting starters back could make a big difference, though checking down on short passes is still in Bradford's comfort zone even when he has time.
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Just my opinion. I am not nitpicking. He sucks at blocking. He is a below average receiving TE. He is very tall. He didn't make as many mistakes as the year before as a receiver for example bobbled passes that end up being interceptions, for no good reason, just lack of body control and spatial awareness).

You can say the Vikings made the fewest changes on offense from last year but I don't think you can back your statement up with supporting evidence. It is your opinion and I disagree with it. The Vikings will have 3 new starters on the offensive line, two new RBs, A new TE and possibly two new WR if Floyd can stay out of trouble and/or Treadwell does anything. It wouldn't be hard for him to be different than his one catch rookie season. Same player, but not likely the same results.

As far as the Carolina example they added McCaffrey and Samuel who for their sake should be an upgrade over Ted Ginn, though I fear they will use him in the same way. How is this any more change than the Vikings adding Cook, Murray, Floyd and Treadwell contributing more than one reception? I don't think it is.

The Vikings are not getting starters back to their offensive line. Loadholt retired. Kalil went to Carolina. The only returning offensive line starters from last season are Boone and Berger. I fear TJ Clemmings playing again. If he does then yes the Vikings offensive line will be bad again most likely. I wish that Clemmings was off the team altogether so I wouldn't need to worry about him being one injury away from starting again.

 
TE A: 26 years old, 126 targets, 83/777/5 receiving, 6.2 YPT
TE B: 27 years old, 132 targets, 83/840/7 receiving, 6.4 YPT

You can see the identity of these two TEs here, which shows every 100-target season by a TE since 2009, sorted by YPT. Rudolph's 2016 season ranks 51st out of 57 in YPT, while Pettigrew's 2011 season ranks 53rd.

If you design an NFL offense, you don't want to rely on tons of short dumpoffs to your TE. Occasionally you'll have a season where that happens because you don't have the personnel to make other things work, but it probably won't last for many seasons.

In other words, I am generally avoiding Rudolph in dynasty because his production was too Pettigrewesque.

 
Biabreakable said:
As far as the Carolina example they added McCaffrey and Samuel who for their sake should be an upgrade over Ted Ginn, though I fear they will use him in the same way. How is this any more change than the Vikings adding Cook, Murray, Floyd and Treadwell contributing more than one reception? I don't think it is.

The Vikings are not getting starters back to their offensive line. Loadholt retired. Kalil went to Carolina. The only returning offensive line starters from last season are Boone and Berger. I fear TJ Clemmings playing again. If he does then yes the Vikings offensive line will be bad again most likely. I wish that Clemmings was off the team altogether so I wouldn't need to worry about him being one injury away from starting again.
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Regarding the first paragraph, Floyd is an absolute nobody at this point.  Bench depth, not impactful at all.  Treadwell having any kind of impact is probably a longshot as well.  People aren't trading him for late 2nd round picks in FF because they think he's about to turn into an elite WR.

Both teams added new RBs.  The difference is that the Vikings added a couple of guys that aren't really any better receivers than the backs they are replacing.  The Panthers added a RB that is a LOT better receiver than the back he is replacing.  Regarding targets to go around, is Dalvin Cook going to hog any more targets than Jerrick McKinnon did?  Probably not.  Is McCaffrey going to hog more?  Most certainly.  Wasn't there a stat floating around that the Panthers were dead last in targets to their RBs last year?  We expect them to be anywhere close to that again next year?

 
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ZWK said:
TE A: 26 years old, 126 targets, 83/777/5 receiving, 6.2 YPT
TE B: 27 years old, 132 targets, 83/840/7 receiving, 6.4 YPT

You can see the identity of these two TEs here, which shows every 100-target season by a TE since 2009, sorted by YPT. Rudolph's 2016 season ranks 51st out of 57 in YPT, while Pettigrew's 2011 season ranks 53rd.

If you design an NFL offense, you don't want to rely on tons of short dumpoffs to your TE. Occasionally you'll have a season where that happens because you don't have the personnel to make other things work, but it probably won't last for many seasons.

In other words, I am generally avoiding Rudolph in dynasty because his production was too Pettigrewesque.
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Good data.  A couple things that may be relevant as well though.

1) I agree dump it short to the TE isn't something you want to rely on, but when Captain Dumpoff is your QB it may not be an outlier.

2) That list doesn't necessarily seem predictive.  The bottom of the list is full of guys that went on to have more good fantasy seasons.  Greg Olsen, who I mentioned above as having a pretty similar career path to Rudolph, is down there even lower than Rudolph or Pettigrew, at 56th.  Tony Gonzalez is down there, again lower than both at 54th, for a season that he followed up with 3 more top TE seasons before retiring.  Even Jimmy Graham makes an appearance down at 40th for his 2012 season, one year before he went off for 1200 yards and 16 TDs.

 
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You are underestimating Dalvin Cooks ability as a receiver if you think he is not a massive upgrade to Peterson, Asiata and McKinnon. Despite the narratives, McKinnon is not that good as a receiver. I think he keeps getting better each year and he is a decent option now, but he has been improving from below average in that area.

Cook is going to be a better option as a reciever than Kyle Rudolph and I do expect them to use him in that capacity a lot more than they would with Peterson.

Floyd might not be able to put it together, but if he does, he is going to help the Vikings. He has played well for the Cardinals. He has proven more than any of these rookie WR. 

Treadwell barely played last year, so anything he adds will be a bonus and not the same as last season.

I have seen some bad breaks for teams at times but the 2016 season for the Vikings was a nightmare. It would require a career threatening injury to Bradford, Riley Reif, Mike Remmers, Joe Berger, Stefon Diggs, Dalvin Cook (Peterson missed most of 2016 and wasn't good when he did play) Floyd and Treadwell doing nothing for it to come close to the disaster of the Vikings 2016 season.It was this series of events that led to what will likely be Kyle Rudolphs career year, more than I think it was Rudolph suddenly playing better. They used him as a receiver more later on in the season because he wasn't really helping as a blocker, and the Vikings had no running game (RB averaged 3.2 yards per carry for the 2016 worst since the 1970s)

I sure hope not.

 
I championed Rudolph most of last year and was met with skepticism on this board. Bradford loves him as a safety valve and he's was their main RZ target last year, I don't see that changing. There have been comments that his production was a result of a bad Oline forcing Bradford to checkdown, but I'm not sure how true this is. The majority of Rudolph's bad games (from a fantasy perspective) last year were a result of the Oline being so awful he had to stay in a block every play. 

Yeah his targets will probably go down, but he's still the top RZ receiving threat on his team, and he still has a QB that loves him. TE is a volatile and unpredictable position. I'd rather draft Rudolph late that try to grab a young high profile unproved TE. 

 
He's not as valuable as Howard/engram/njoku, but more valuable than any of the other rookie tight ends.  He turns 28 this year,  and tight ends hit their primes later in their careers than other positions.  

Will he regress from last year? Probably.  It certainly looks like a career year,  although there were valid reasons to predict a career year from him and a lot of those are still present.  

But look at the guys in the top 12 from last year.

Rudolph 83/840/7

Walker 65/800/7

Brate 57/660/8

Doyle 59/584/5

Gates 53/548/7

You might squeeze another year out of Gates but they've already said they plan to feature Henry more.  Walker Is 32 and is probably no longer the number one or two option in the passing game.  Brate is solid but will rapidly lose ground to Howard.  Doyle had a couple big weeks but was basically unstartable the rest of the year. 

So who are the guys you'd rather have? Gronk, Kelce, Reed - obviously.  Hunter Henry is probably good enough to start this year so yeah. Olsen and Graham? Sure.   Eifert and Reed? If you can tolerate the injury risk. Ebron and Ertz? Probably belong in the same tier. Walker Is probably cheaper in dynasty and might be better in the short term.   I'd love to have any of the big 3 rookies, but I'm not planning to start any of them this year.  After that it gets pretty dicey.  

Realistically,  he's a starting tight end.  Not a sexy one, but average even if he regresses, and above average of he doesn't. He's never going to be an elite difference maker but he's the kind of guy you can safely start while you take shots on upside or injury prone guys.  Would fit really well as a backup to a guy like reed, or as a starter while you groom a njoku or engram. Probably worth pick 20 or so in this year's draft or a projected early second next year. 

 
I've got Rudolph about 9-10 range both in redraft and dynasty. That said, at least in my leagues, he's valued a bit lower than that, especially in dynasty. In redraft, its hard for me to see guys like Hunter Henry and even Zach Ertz ahead of him, and they go pretty far ahead of him judging by some mocks I've seen. Its possible everything came together just right for Rudolph in 2016, its just as possible that he is the Vikings most reliable pass catcher. He's a great TE-by committee target.

 
Although I am just expressing my disappointment with Rudolph as a Vikings fan, I do agree with you guys that he is likely still a top 12 TE for fantasy in 2017.

He is a solid option in the red zone and WOO makes a good point about that. 61 red zone targets in 80 games played is pretty good. Rudolph scored 9 TD in his second season. Rudolph has suffered from some poor QB play for much of his career Christian Ponder and young Teddy Bridgewater. Bradford the best QB he has played with for sure and I do expect that to be the same. For fantasy Rudolph's weakness as a blocker is something you should be happy about, as a fan of not getting QBs killed I am not. Using him as a receiver is a better option than having him block and inviting more blitzers though.

If Treadwell and/or Floyd contribute, they would compete for those red zone looks. Cook should as well. But Rudolph still may be favorite option for Bradford in that situation. Looking at the splits he scores most of his TD against division opponents.

 
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ZWK said:
@bostonfred I'd rather have Gerald Everett (in dynasty).
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I can see that.  I mentioned Rudolph was worth pick 20 or a projected early 2nd. You are a little more down on Rudolph and a little higher on Everett than i am, and you had Everett as pick 21 in your last update https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/747088-zwks-2017-prospect-analysis/?page=9 so I think pick 20 is about right.  

Also worth mentioning that rankings are only half the story.  If you own Everett and only have room to roster one other tight end, Rudolph is a solid choice. I wouldn't want to go into the season as a borderline contender with Everett and njoku as my top two guys.   If i owned kelce, i would have zero interest in Rudolph and would be more keen on taking a chance on Everett.  

 
ZWK said:
@bostonfred I'd rather have Gerald Everett (in dynasty).
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Yeah in Dynasty there are obviously tons of better options. There were 3 TE taken in the first this year. There were only 6 TE taken in the first round in the past 10 years. (Ebron, Eifert, Pettigrew, Gresham, Keller, Olsen). 2 of those are terrible picks by the lions. 

Honestly, unless you have Gronk, Graham or Reed (all huge injury risks) or Walker (the unsung TE hero of fantasy), your goal with TE is to get a guy with a clear path to targets who has a chance of catching touchdowns. In redraft all these young guys are huge gambles to me, as rookie tight ends never meet expectations 

 
ZWK said:
@bostonfred I'd rather have Gerald Everett (in dynasty).
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I actually asked myself this very question last week. I'm in a TE premium league and was without a first or second round pick,and dealt Rudolph for pick 2.4 before the NFL draft.  I ended up taking Everett with the pick. If I felt like I needed a TE next year I might value Rudolph more, but I did a self review of that trade after I took Everett and concluded I'd do it again without question.

 
Ok, some of you need to take a deep breath since its getting out of hand in here. Rudolph isnt elite, but he has a better chance to put up points than most TEs in the league. Lets recap some of the remarks.

ZWK said:
@bostonfred I'd rather have Gerald Everett (in dynasty).
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No you wouldnt, and you cant even believe that. Take a rookie TE for the Rams over a guy in the NFL who has produced at top end level and is what you hope Everett can dream to be? People get so excited about rookies they throw our reason and logic because of hopes. Even in Dynasty I'll take Rudolph over Everett for the next 3 years in dyno and if you are thinking any further ahead, you are doing it wrong.

menobrown said:
I actually asked myself this very question last week. I'm in a TE premium league and was without a first or second round pick,and dealt Rudolph for pick 2.4 before the NFL draft.  I ended up taking Everett with the pick. If I felt like I needed a TE next year I might value Rudolph more, but I did a self review of that trade after I took Everett and concluded I'd do it again without question.
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So you traded Rudolph for 2.4, then proceeded to draft Everett with 2.4? You lost that deal there. Rudolph straight up for Everett? A Ram TE who may share with Higbee and might not even be better for a starter who ended up Top 3 in most PPRs last year? Rookie fever makes people do unwise things. Literally traded the #2 TE in points in the NFL this past year for the #4 rookie TE in this draft (at best), thats chasing upside at its fullest. 

Wise Old Owl said:
Yeah in Dynasty there are obviously tons of better options. There were 3 TE taken in the first this year. There were only 6 TE taken in the first round in the past 10 years. (Ebron, Eifert, Pettigrew, Gresham, Keller, Olsen). 2 of those are terrible picks by the lions. 

Honestly, unless you have Gronk, Graham or Reed (all huge injury risks) or Walker (the unsung TE hero of fantasy), your goal with TE is to get a guy with a clear path to targets who has a chance of catching touchdowns. In redraft all these young guys are huge gambles to me, as rookie tight ends never meet expectations 
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You forgot Kelce and Gronk Graham or Reed,? Whats the chances all 3 finish the reg season? People say this stuff that Rudolph had success because others were hurt, yes... Gronk and Reed typically get hurt, that is the only thing obvious about the TE position. 

Other remarks TE by committee target? A Top 20 TE maybe? People taking Eifert over him? other than his one year of 13 TDs, what has he done besides show us he is a headache away from being out of the league and is only one year younger? Walker? A guy with one year in the NFL left likely? Another thread where I am not even a fan of the guy but people saying unreasonable and illogical things catches my attention. Everett over Rudolph? People clearly trying to hype the guy they drafted, which is fine, but not at a better TEs expense.

 
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Mavis said:
So you traded Rudolph for 2.4, then proceeded to draft Everett with 2.4? You lost that deal there. Rudolph straight up for Everett? A Ram TE who may share with Higbee and might not even be better for a starter who ended up Top 3 in most PPRs last year? Rookie fever makes people do unwise things. Literally traded the #2 TE in points in the NFL this past
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People who pay for what a player did and not what he's going to do are the one's that lose deals. That's not me my friend, I've got vision.

 
menobrown said:
People who pay for what a player did and not what he's going to do are the one's that lose deals. That's not me my friend, I've got vision.
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Its not about "pay for" its about capability. Its better to pay for what a player has proven to do and capable of than for a player who has proven nothing. Thats not just vision, thats logic, my friend. 

 
Mavis said:
No you wouldnt, and you cant even believe that. Take a rookie TE for the Rams over a guy in the NFL who has produced at top end level and is what you hope Everett can dream to be? People get so excited about rookies they throw our reason and logic because of hopes. Even in Dynasty I'll take Rudolph over Everett for the next 3 years in dyno and if you are thinking any further ahead, you are doing it wrong.
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It all depends on the team you have and what you are looking for.

Before last season Rudolph was practically worthless in dynasty leagues. In five seasons he had never even sniffed 60 receptions and averaged a little over 4 TDs per season. He basically had one high end TE2 / low end TE1 season in 5 years. Now last season things broke his way. Treadwell was a bust, Diggs was banged up a lot, the running game was pathetic and Bradford was captain check down (Rudolph only averaged 10 ypr). This season Bradford is still a plus but those other factors may not line up as well. If Diggs is healthy and Treadwell shows improvement they will see targets. With Murray and Cook in the RB rotation, a defensive minded HC may run the ball more.

Everett is a similar prospect to Jordan Reed (physically and stylewise) and was drafted by the HC that helped make Reed a star in Washington as his position coach and then OC. Will Everett reach Reed's heights? No one really knows, but it's within reason that he could.

So like bostonfred said, if I have a team that was a contender and has a hole at TE, I want Rudolph. If I have a rebuilding team or a team that already has a solid starting TE I take the potential upside of Everett.

 
Rudolph has been in the NFL for 6 years, and has accumulated 51 career VBD over that time period (ppr scoring, based on ppg). That is the 19th most among TEs for that time period (2011-2016), behind Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, Reed, Walker, J Thomas, Hernandez, Kelce, Bennett, Barnidge, V Davis, Eifert, H Miller, Cameron, and Ertz.

 
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ZWK said:
Rudolph has been in the NFL for 6 years, and has accumulated 51 career VBD over that time period (ppr scoring, based on ppg). That is the 19th most among TEs for that time period (2011-2016), behind Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, Reed, Walker, J Thomas, Hernandez, Kelce, Bennett, Barnidge, V Davis, Eifert, H Miller, Cameron, and Ertz.
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How is it the same peopel who say last year dont matter go back 3 or more years to try to make their case? He got the 3rd most post in the most recent season played. His upside and current level of production is safe at TE 7'ish for me. Hernandez,  :lol:

 
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What are the Vikings planning to do with Hodges? TE or WR? He could be as much or more of a red zone threat if he earns snaps on offense.

 
Just Win Baby said:
What are the Vikings planning to do with Hodges? TE or WR? He could be as much or more of a red zone threat if he earns snaps on offense.
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I think Hodges is a project. They used a 6th round pick on him. Similar to the pick they used on Moritz Boerighter in 2016. He played more as a receiver than a TE. Rarely was Hodges lined up in line from what I have seen of him. Always outside or in the slot. He has some bad drops and doesn't run that good of routes. He is really tall and a great jumper though. He can really go get the ball. That is something the Vikings have been looking for since they traded Moss really but the players they have added haven't panned out. I guess Sidney Rice briefly.

The Vikings lost Rhett Ellison to the Giants in free agency. He was a really good blocker prior to his PCL injury and might still be that for the Giants. The Vikings didn't use him as much last year even though they needed to give the offensive tackles more help, which is somewhat a mystery to me. Ellison played on 470 offensive snaps in 2015 (46%) but in 2016 he only played on 258 offensive snaps (24.5%) so about half as much as the year before.

Ellisons most likely replacement is David Morgan who was a 6th round pick in 2016. He only played on 63 offensive snaps last year (6%). The Vikings cut Mycole Pruitt during the season and the Bears picked him up. He was more of a athletic project, receiving option.

I think Hodges has a lot to prove. But he could earn a role as receiving TE of the future. There is also a chance he earns a role as a receiver in the case where Treadwell and Floyd both fail. The other WR the Vikings drafted seem more like kick returners than guys who will compete for offensive snaps to me. Cheaper versions of Patterson.

The Vikings can save about $6 million cap space by letting Rudolph go in 2018. If Hodges proved enough, they might consider doing that. I would like for that to happen. At the same time I think Rudolph is a favorite of the front office, so just might be wishful thinking on my part. They will likely keep overpaying him beyond this season even if Hodges does well. Not like Hodges contract is much as a 6th round pick.

Rudolph played on 92% of the Vikings offensive snaps in 2016. 2nd most on the team. Only Sam Bradford had more.

 
ZWK said:
Rudolph has been in the NFL for 6 years, and has accumulated 51 career VBD over that time period (ppr scoring, based on ppg). That is the 19th most among TEs for that time period (2011-2016), behind Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, Reed, Walker, J Thomas, Hernandez, Kelce, Bennett, Barnidge, V Davis, Eifert, H Miller, Cameron, and Ertz.
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What was Olsen's VBD after 6 years?

Olsen did miss less time, but if we projected out Rudolph's pace in those two seasons he missed games their statistical career paths would be virtually identical.

 
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