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RB Matt Breida - Giants RB (1 Viewer)

Weebs210 said:
Breida will be cop 3rd down back. Morris will be the bell cow.
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If we assume the situation to be synonymous to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman then the natural inclination would be to place morris as Devonta and Breida as Coleman. Simply that wont be the case since morris is no where near the runner or pass catcher that freeman is. 
 

I do agree to some extent and I could see morris getting 15 carries a game, but I firmly believe Breida will be utilized more in designed shanahan plays, and will see somewhere between 8-12 rushes/6-9 targets per game pending gamescript. In a PPR I think he's by far the better value

 
PPRGuy said:
Just based on 2017 numbers, Factoring out Hyde and giving Morris a healthy 200 carries and 35 targets while preserving Juszczyk's role (he may get a 10% bump across the board)

Breida should still garner around 150+ rushes and 60-80 targets out of the backfield... Which I could conservatively imagine translating to 600-700 rushing yards, 50-65 catches, 400-500 receiving yards with somewhere between 4-6 total touchdowns.

In a PPR that ranges out to 175 - 221 Total Points at a CONSERVATIVE spectrum (assuming the washed up alfred morris has that sizeable of a role) 
The bottom end of this spectrum is around Lynch, Henry, Burkhead projections while the top is near joe mixon, Jordan Howard, and the original mckinnon projection (RB15-17ish)

He's a year further in the shanahan scheme and front office drafted the guy specifically for his skill set... This coming from a 49er fan that watched and loved breida last year and his athleticism is real with sub 4.4 speed; I'm picking up breida everywhere in anticipation of massive upside opportunity. Could be an easy plug and play weekly RB2 out of the gates in PPR leagues. I do not assume Breida at his smaller frame to assume touches to the tune of 200+ carries, but its in the realm of possibilities especially if Morris isnt the back he was as a rookie with shanny.
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Not sure how conservstice those projections are. You’re talking about  almost 200 touches (150 rush & 47 catches (assuming the high end of 80 targets), with the same catch% & YPR from 2017 that’s 336 receiving yards to go with 660 rush yards (again, using last years 4.4 average, which was .4 YPC less than the “washed up” Morris).  He’d also have to score more frequently to get to your high end TD projection.

So, your conservative projections require Breida to maintain the same efficiency numbers with regards to his rushing & receiving numbers, AND to improve on his TD efficiency.  And IF he does this, he’ll be just below 1000 total yards & 6 TDS.  According to FBG standard projections, that would project at around RB 23, AND that’s assuming he doesn’t miss any games with his shoulder issue.

 
FWIW Bloom on twitter seems to have Morris>Breida in non-PPR and Breida>Morris in PPR.

Sure Sig will chime in at some point but noting it since it is presumably a big draft night.

-QG

 
Bayhawks said:
Not sure how conservstice those projections are. You’re talking about  almost 200 touches (150 rush & 47 catches (assuming the high end of 80 targets), with the same catch% & YPR from 2017 that’s 336 receiving yards to go with 660 rush yards (again, using last years 4.4 average, which was .4 YPC less than the “washed up” Morris).  He’d also have to score more frequently to get to your high end TD projection.

So, your conservative projections require Breida to maintain the same efficiency numbers with regards to his rushing & receiving numbers, AND to improve on his TD efficiency.  And IF he does this, he’ll be just below 1000 total yards & 6 TDS.  According to FBG standard projections, that would project at around RB 23, AND that’s assuming he doesn’t miss any games with his shoulder issue.
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Alfred Morris played a change of pace role most of the year behind the Dallas OLine... He had a couple big games when zeke went out and I'll give him some props but still in the Dallas system. I won't believe in alfred morris until I see him in the regular season contributing consistently, and even then I gave him 200 carries for the projection.

I expect the niners offense to be as prolific as it was the last 5 games when they started garropolo and when Breida started to come on.

-Just cleared from shoulder issue, today (never thought much of it assume he'll be 100% at season start)
-TD's are hard to predict but Breida had 3 on 120 touches while I expect him to get more like 200ish in a better offense. (4-6 makes sense)
-Targets, I do expect Breida to get those Hyde targets at 88 last season and Morris to take Breida's 36, but I was trying to be conservative with the 60-80. Your catch% point is valid and I agree with projecting off that but I do think Breida improves on his efficiency from his rookie year as he's made it a focus of his off season development. (video linked again) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-cFhEe6vs
-YPR (2017 8.6 YPR) If he catches 50 balls (probably more) he's at 430 yards which is right in the wheelhouse of the projection of 4-500 receiving yards. not sure how you got 336...

To be honest there is quite a bit of 'What-If's' in my projection, but I think with the way the offense is going to run, and the hole mckinnon has left, I definitely think breida will earn on that range if the volume is there, and I believe it'll be there. The high end of the projection is obviously less conservative... but it's conservative to the tune of realistic volume ranges for Breida in 2018 (200 touches in a more-prolific-than-last-year shanahan offense is reasonable for the RB2 on the depth chart when Mckinnon was RB1...)

 
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PPRGuy said:
Alfred Morris played a change of pace role most of the year behind the Dallas OLine... He had a couple big games when zeke went out and I'll give him some props but still in the Dallas system. I won't believe in alfred morris until I see him in the regular season contributing consistently, and even then I gave him 200 carries for the projection.

I expect the niners offense to be as prolific as it was the last 5 games when they started garropolo and when Breida started to come on.

-TD's are hard to predict but Breida had 3 on 120 touches while I expect him to get more like 200ish while also in a better offense.
-Targets, I do expect Breida to get those Hyde targets at 88 last season and Morris to take Breida's 36, but I was trying to be conservative with the 60-80. Your catch% point is valid and I agree with projecting off that but I do think Breida improves on his efficiency from his rookie year as he's made it a focus of his off season development. 

To be honest there is quite a bit of 'What-If's' in my projection, but I think with the way the offense is going to run, and the hole mckinnon has left, I definitely think breida will earn on that range if the volume is there, and I believe it'll be there. The high end of the projection is obviously less conservative... but it's conservative to the tune of realistic volume ranges for Breida in 2018
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Morris DID NOT play a change of pace role last year.  He had 99 carries when Zeke was suspended, and only 16 carries the rest of the year.  He played the main RB role while Zeke was suspended.  He did this when the Dallas O-Line was notably not playing like the Dallas O-line due to the Smith injury.  He averaged 4.8 YPC.

Breida DID play a change of pace role (behind Hyde) behind the SF Oline, which finished the year top-10 in run blocking per footballoutsiders.com.  During those last 5 games when "Breida started to come on," he averaged 4.5 YPC, and had 3 catches (TOTAL, not per game) for 44 yards. 

So, lets agree that Breida was the COP back in 2017.  As a COP back, he had 19 carries (18% of his 2017 rushes) in "passing" situations (1st & 15+ yards, 2nd or 3rd and 10+ yards).  On those 19 plays (when the D's primary focus probably wasn't the run), his YPC was 4.9YPC.  With regards to receiving, Breida was already top-20 in YPR for RBs in 2017 (min 20 catches), while his catch rate was only 58%. 

I would think we can also agree that when a player increases his workload, his efficiency numbers usually go down, not up.  So, since Breida got a boost from getting carries as a COP back in passing situations, and already had a relatively high YPR (with an extremely low catch rate), it makes little sense for either his YPC or his YPR to improve if he is going to get MORE carries, presumably in more traditional running situations, with the Defense keying on the run.

There's not a lot of logic behind your projections, other than "it's his second year."  His YPC was inflated by running against D's focusing on the pass.  His YPR was inflated by a small sample size where 1-2 long receptions can drastically alter the efficiency rate.  It's more reasonable to assume a decline in efficiency with more work, rather than a boost.

 
SameSongNDance said:
In retrospect SF telegraphed that Breida was their RB2 since the beginning of the preseason, it just took everyone a while to catch on. Aside from being the obvious handcuff now, as mentioned above, there's a very real possibility that Shanny utilizes Breida similarly to how he did Coleman. The only person I'm actually concerned with as a wildcard in this situation is Jusczyzk who was quietly siphoning off 50-60 targets a year from RBs in BAL.

I think Breida is rosterable in redraft as a RB5/RB6/lottery ticket.
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Holy #### I was worried about Juice last year too. At least I'm consistent. 

 
Bayhawks said:
Breida DID play a change of pace role (behind Hyde) behind the SF Oline, which finished the year top-10 in run blocking per footballoutsiders.com. During those last 5 games when "Breida started to come on," he averaged 4.5 YPC, and had 3 catches (TOTAL, not per game) for 44 yards.
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It's funny because through-out the entire off season I've always found myself coming back to and mentioning Hyde's absolutely mind boggling target share/total from last year even when it only tangentially connects to the topic. I could not and still can't wrap my head around it. I'm absolutely positive there are more efficient and effective things to do with a football then pass it to Carlos Hyde. It never occurred to me until today - until I actually delved a little deeper into the backfield - that the reason Hyde was targeted 88 times was because he was still somehow a better option in the passing game than Breida.

 
Carlos Hyde won me a championship running him as a year long WR/RB/TE flex. I watched his game. His game was better -- as a rookie -- than Gore's was when Gore was still in SF. He's a better back than people give him credit for.  

 
rockaction said:
Carlos Hyde won me a championship running him as a year long WR/RB/TE flex. I watched his game. His game was better -- as a rookie -- than Gore's was when Gore was still in SF. He's a better back than people give him credit for.
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I think Hyde is a talented runner. He does not excel as pass catching, he cannot do much more than catch dump offs. 

This is a list of the top 10 most targeted RBs last year, in order.

CMC, Bell, Kamara, Duke, Hyde, Gurley, Gordon, McCoy, White, Cohen

One of them doesn't belong.

 
SameSongNDance said:
I think Hyde is a talented runner. He does not excel as pass catching, he cannot do much more than catch dump offs. 

This is a list of the top 10 most targeted RBs last year, in order.

CMC, Bell, Kamara, Duke, Hyde, Gurley, Gordon, McCoy, White, Cohen

One of them doesn't belong.
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Yeah, I wasn't really arguing for any natural fluidity or competence in Hyde's receiving game. If anything, I remember the announcers saying it was his weak point. But as an overall back, he's not weak sauce. He's actually pretty good, IMO, even at the pro level.  But I don't do this for a living or really scout guys with expertise. I sort of just see it, so you have to take my opinion with a grain of salt and that in mind.  

 
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Bayhawks said:
Morris DID NOT play a change of pace role last year.  He had 99 carries when Zeke was suspended, and only 16 carries the rest of the year.  He played the main RB role while Zeke was suspended.  He did this when the Dallas O-Line was notably not playing like the Dallas O-line due to the Smith injury.  He averaged 4.8 YPC.

Breida DID play a change of pace role (behind Hyde) behind the SF Oline, which finished the year top-10 in run blocking per footballoutsiders.com.  During those last 5 games when "Breida started to come on," he averaged 4.5 YPC, and had 3 catches (TOTAL, not per game) for 44 yards. 

So, lets agree that Breida was the COP back in 2017.  As a COP back, he had 19 carries (18% of his 2017 rushes) in "passing" situations (1st & 15+ yards, 2nd or 3rd and 10+ yards).  On those 19 plays (when the D's primary focus probably wasn't the run), his YPC was 4.9YPC.  With regards to receiving, Breida was already top-20 in YPR for RBs in 2017 (min 20 catches), while his catch rate was only 58%. 

I would think we can also agree that when a player increases his workload, his efficiency numbers usually go down, not up.  So, since Breida got a boost from getting carries as a COP back in passing situations, and already had a relatively high YPR (with an extremely low catch rate), it makes little sense for either his YPC or his YPR to improve if he is going to get MORE carries, presumably in more traditional running situations, with the Defense keying on the run.

There's not a lot of logic behind your projections, other than "it's his second year."  His YPC was inflated by running against D's focusing on the pass.  His YPR was inflated by a small sample size where 1-2 long receptions can drastically alter the efficiency rate.  It's more reasonable to assume a decline in efficiency with more work, rather than a boost.
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Totally fair assumptions, and I appreciate you getting into the details. 

No way you can convince me that the SF OLine created the same opportunity that Dallas did, even with tyron out... According to your source the Dallas line still finished at number 4! Furthermore, Alfred Morris averaged 4.3 YPC and had a total 6 receptions (7 on the year)... as a starter for those 99 carries, I had morris as a pick up last year and the Dallas line was definitely a better place to be than SF when I compared those weeks watching.

For Breida, yes I agree rushing/receiving does help on those plays you alluded to (a very fair point) I think the bump in catch rate this year (58% is not going to be sustained and if it is then my projection will be more to the tune of what you're describing) but those were only 19 of his 105 carries which you made evident. Even if his YPC drops to 4.1-4.2 even 4.0 my projections are still in the same realm...

I'm staying true to what I think for those projections, was I getting a little excited at the top end of the range (probably). But with 4.1-4.2 YPC and 8.1 YPR (the league average for RBs per football guys data dominator) with a lower number than the hyde 88 at 75 targets at a catch% of a low 65% (league average for RBs was 74% per football guys data dominator)

Even with loss in efficiency to what you're describing I think this holds, I also think there is room for volume growth and there's always a chance he keeps his efficiency and improves from another offseason with the team. This is all pure speculation at this point but I did enjoy debating with you and you have curbed my upside excitement to a more realistic thought process. 

150+ carries = 6-700 yards rushing

75 targets*67% = 50 receptions *8.1 = 400 receiving yards

TDs we could debate all night, I'm sticking with 4-6 on increased touches in a better offense

(right in my spectrum, top end of 221 Fantasy points seeming more like a stretch built upon Breida improving his catch rate substantially back to league average)

 
SameSongNDance said:
It's funny because through-out the entire off season I've always found myself coming back to and mentioning Hyde's absolutely mind boggling target share/total from last year even when it only tangentially connects to the topic. I could not and still can't wrap my head around it. I'm absolutely positive there are more efficient and effective things to do with a football then pass it to Carlos Hyde. It never occurred to me until today - until I actually delved a little deeper into the backfield - that the reason Hyde was targeted 88 times was because he was still somehow a better option in the passing game than Breida.
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I think Breida substantially improves his pass catching this year, I admit it was a struggle for him last season but he was never a pass catcher in college since they never seemed to throw to the back at Georgia southern (even though scouts alluded to him being capable http://draftanalyst.com/matt-breida) and he was just thrust into the role with 36 targets. Breida has made a big focus this offseason to learn from mckinnon and improve his pass catching skills running routes and securing the ball.

 Juszczyk could definitely see a bump in targets by the way, he is a really good football player and he had a bunch last year, I think the coaching staff really trusts him too. could easily get 50+ targets but he did have 42 last year with the 88 Hyde and 36 to Breida. 

 
PPRGuy said:
150+ carries = 6-700 yards rushing

75 targets*67% = 50 receptions *8.1 = 400 receiving yards

TDs we could debate all night, I'm sticking with 4-6 on increased touches in a better offense

(right in my spectrum, top end of 221 Fantasy points seeming more like a stretch built upon Breida improving his catch rate substantially back to league average)
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kind of a guessing game but I'd assume fewer carries...say 125...and might assume 40 versus 50 catches....but 5-7 TDs seems reasonable.  more attractive in full PPR than std.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
kind of a guessing game but I'd assume fewer carries...say 125...and might assume 40 versus 50 catches....but 5-7 TDs seems reasonable.  more attractive in full PPR than std.
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It does seem more reasonable, but someone is going to have catch the 120+ RB targets that niners threw last year (not counting and still giving the 42 to Juszczyk) and it's not going to be alfred morris. 

 
PPRGuy said:
I think Breida substantially improves his pass catching this year, I admit it was a struggle for him last season but he was never a pass catcher in college since they never seemed to throw to the back at Georgia southern (even though scouts alluded to him being capable http://draftanalyst.com/matt-breida) and he was just thrust into the role with 36 targets. Breida has made a big focus this offseason to learn from mckinnon and improve his pass catching skills running routes and securing the ball.

Juszczyk could definitely see a bump in targets by the way, he is a really good football player and he had a bunch last year, I think the coaching staff really trusts him too. could easily get 50+ targets but he did have 42 last year with the 88 Hyde and 36 to Breida.
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Yeah, I actually don't even want to die on the "Breida can't catch" hill. I'm sure he'll improve on last season because to be honest you can only go up from there. Right now I'm just tinkering with projections and seeing where I'd be comfortable taking him. But I'm still not sure that he can excel in the role, you can understand why I'm hesitant to even assume an average catch percentage. I'm trying to be conservative and I think you previously projected a 81-83% catch percentage. I can't do that. 

 
PPRGuy said:
Totally fair assumptions, and I appreciate you getting into the details. 

No way you can convince me that the SF OLine created the same opportunity that Dallas did, even with tyron out... According to your source the Dallas line still finished at number 4! Furthermore, Alfred Morris averaged 4.3 YPC and had a total 6 receptions (7 on the year)... as a starter for those 99 carries, I had morris as a pick up last year and the Dallas line was definitely a better place to be than SF when I compared those weeks watching.

For Breida, yes I agree rushing/receiving does help on those plays you alluded to (a very fair point) I think the bump in catch rate this year (58% is not going to be sustained and if it is then my projection will be more to the tune of what you're describing) but those were only 19 of his 105 carries which you made evident. Even if his YPC drops to 4.1-4.2 even 4.0 my projections are still in the same realm...

I'm staying true to what I think for those projections, was I getting a little excited at the top end of the range (probably). But with 4.1-4.2 YPC and 8.1 YPR (the league average for RBs per football guys data dominator) with a lower number than the hyde 88 at 75 targets at a catch% of a low 65% (league average for RBs was 74% per football guys data dominator)

Even with loss in efficiency to what you're describing I think this holds, I also think there is room for volume growth and there's always a chance he keeps his efficiency and improves from another offseason with the team. This is all pure speculation at this point but I did enjoy debating with you and you have curbed my upside excitement to a more realistic thought process. 

150+ carries = 6-700 yards rushing

75 targets*67% = 50 receptions *8.1 = 400 receiving yards

TDs we could debate all night, I'm sticking with 4-6 on increased touches in a better offense

(right in my spectrum, top end of 221 Fantasy points seeming more like a stretch built upon Breida improving his catch rate substantially back to league average)
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I’ll be honest; I perceived Breida as a pass catcher & didn’t see myself drafting McKinnon at his ADP, so I didn’t do a lot of in depth research into Breida.  When the injuries to McKinnon & Breida occurred & Morris got signed, I saw an opportunity.  Morris was a different back than those 2.  With the new injury to McKinnon tonight, I’ve done some more looking. SSOD posted a video of Breida catching & he looks bad.  

He had 2 catches in 2017 for 52 yards (1 in garbage time vs Philly & 1 in week 17 against Rams backups).  Without those 2 catches, his YPR is 6.7.  

He had the 2nd most drops (5) by a RB in the NFL (Hyde was first, with 6; but Hyde had 88 targets, Breida only 36).  

He had only 22 catches his entire college career & averaged only 7.2 YPR.  

None of these things suggest improvement in the passing game.  He’ll get passing work b/c SF doesn’t have much else at RB, except for their FB.  But expecting his catch rate to jump up to 67%, and his YPR to stay in the top 20 (which is far higher than his college average) smells of wishful thinking, rather than logical conclusion.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Yeah, I actually don't even want to die on the "Breida can't catch" hill. I'm sure he'll improve on last season because to be honest you can only go up from there. Right now I'm just tinkering with projections and seeing where I'd be comfortable taking him. But I'm still not sure that he can excel in the role, you can understand why I'm hesitant to even assume an average catch percentage. I'm trying to be conservative and I think you previously projected a 81-83% catch percentage. I can't do that. 
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Yeah the top end of the catch% was ambitious and ignorant to say the least, that was more me eye-balling the targets and catches then actually using the 74% league average. 80 targets at 74% is still 59 catches which would be super nice for Breida in a ppr assuming he has improved his pass catching and gained the trust of the coaches. And even if he isnt at that point, I dont see morris garnering more than 40 targets... (which seems absurd since Morris had 16, 12, and 26 respectively in the 3 good years he played with shanahan lol!) 

 
I wonder if Shannahan is scheming to bring in another back...maybe they thought Morris was only needed for early in the season and are wanting to bring in someone to absorb more targets....

 
Bayhawks said:
I’ll be honest; I perceived Breida as a pass catcher & didn’t see myself drafting McKinnon at his ADP, so I didn’t do a lot of in depth research into Breida.  When the injuries to McKinnon & Breida occurred & Morris got signed, I saw an opportunity.  Morris was a different back than those 2.  With the new injury to McKinnon tonight, I’ve done some more looking. SSOD posted a video of Breida catching & he looks bad.  

He had 2 catches in 2017 for 52 yards (1 in garbage time vs Philly & 1 in week 17 against Rams backups).  Without those 2 catches, his YPR is 6.7.  

He had the 2nd most drops (5) by a RB in the NFL (Hyde was first, with 6; but Hyde had 88 targets, Breida only 36).  

He had only 22 catches his entire college career & averaged only 7.2 YPR.  

None of these things suggest improvement in the passing game.  He’ll get passing work b/c SF doesn’t have much else at RB, except for their FB.  But expecting his catch rate to jump up to 67%, and his YPR to stay in the top 20 (which is far higher than his college average) smells of wishful thinking, rather than logical conclusion.
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Fair views, but at this point you're kinda beating a dead horse with him not being able to improve as a pass catcher just because his college didn't throw to him (classic college bias). Also he looks fine here... last August, working on his catching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T0f39ocMzE so I am not going to base my whole view of his ability on certain clips.

It's fair to assume he wont improve based on last year, but beat writers and breida have toted his commitment to improve in the pass game. Draft scouts noted his ability to catch the ball from what I've seen online and it is also very reasonable to see him much close to the 74% league average at RB catch%. So I do think 65% is a very fair number and I personally believe it will be higher and he will get a ton of targets

 
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PPRGuy said:
Fair views, but at this point you're kinda beating a dead horse with him not being able to improve as a pass catcher just because his college didn't throw to him (classic college bias). Also he looks fine here... last August, working on his catching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T0f39ocMzE so I am not going to base my whole view of his ability on certain clips.

It's fair to assume he wont improve based on last year, but beat writers and breida have toted his commitment to improve in the pass game. Draft scouts noted his ability to catch the ball from what I've seen online and it is also very reasonable to see him much close to the 74% league average at RB catch%. So I do think 65% is a very fair number and I personally believe it will be higher and he will get a ton of targets
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There was a lot of reporting about how much work Jordan Howard has done on his catching, but that doesn’t mean he’s gonna get any better.

As for those scouts who noted his ability to catch the ball; this was pre-draft right?  Then he went out and had the 2nd most drops at the RB position last year and only caught 58% of his targets.  Suffice it to say that what they noted didn’t translate to the NFL.

As far as not basing your view of his ability on certain clips, I’m not doing that.  I’m basing this opinion on a very brief study tonight.  As I look more in depth, maybe my opinion will change, but for now we have his college career where he had very few catches, one season in the NFL where he caught well below the league average for RBs, saw his YPR greatly inflated by 2 long, flukish type plays, almost led the league in drops (at RB) despite being 40th in targets.  It’s not certain clips.  You seem to be basing your belief in improvement on “scouts said he could catch,” despite no visible evidence in college or the NFL to support that, and reports that he’s working on it.  Sorry, but I think 3 years of college evidence & 1 year of NFL evidence outweighs that.

 
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ok fine, yeah, they almost for sure bring another "body" but best guess right now is that Morris is the guy to own and Breida is the backup and change of pace. It's not what they wanted but here we (they are). 

 
tsarc888 said:
ok fine, yeah, they almost for sure bring another "body" but best guess right now is that Morris is the guy to own and Breida is the backup and change of pace. It's not what they wanted but here we (they are). 
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Sorry, I didn't mean to sound condescending. I have Breida in my PPR keeper league that drafts Monday. I didn't even consider keeping him until this news broke. Just trying to get a gauge on his value. If this guy is going to be Tevin Coleman, might be worth it.

 
Man In The Box said:
Sorry, I didn't mean to sound condescending. I have Breida in my PPR keeper league that drafts Monday. I didn't even consider keeping him until this news broke. Just trying to get a gauge on his value. If this guy is going to be Tevin Coleman, might be worth it.
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hey, sorry, I was responding generally. Not at all towards you so no, sure didn't think YOU were condescending in any way! good luck this year.

 
Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Niners claim Josh Adams. If they don’t grab him or another rookie or 2nd year guy with potential, then the job is Alf’s 60/40 or 65/35. If they grab a journeyman, nothing to worry about. We shall see. 

 
Matt Maiocco✔@MaioccoNBCS

With #49ers RB Jerick McKinnon out for the season, expect Alfred Morris and Matt Breida to share the load. Who plays more will likely be based on game plan vs. opponent. Who starts will be determined by the first call on Kyle Shanahan’s play sheet.

6:28 PM - Sep 1, 2018

 
cjv123 said:
McKinnon and Breida were both injured.

Obviously, you are not serious, Cletus. /ignoreuser
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Oh no... he called me Cletus AND used the forum code to ignore me... what will I ever do? 

Breida sucks. He’s not startable in standard leagues. Enjoy your weak flex play :thumbup:  

 
ffldrew said:
Broncos cut Deangelo Henderson - I'd expect the 49ers look to bring him in for a trial 
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De'Angelo Henderson and Ralph Webb both have three-down-back potential and should be on a short list of free agent backs the Niners take a look at in my opinion. However, the Niners will look to Matt Breida and Alfred Morris first to cover the loss of McKinnon. 

 
Hilts said:
Is this the only reason you believe Breida is better? 
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No, but it is a fact. I was also impressed by a columnist earlier this preseason saying Breida was better than McKinnon. Also, I did own Breida a spell last year and he was decent.

 
cjv123 said:
No, but it is a fact. I was also impressed by a columnist earlier this preseason saying Breida was better than McKinnon. Also, I did own Breida a spell last year and he was decent.
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Opinions are not facts. 

Breida had 105 attempts last year and averaged 4.4 ypc.

Morris had 115 attempts last year and averaged 4.8 ypc.

How does a 4.4 make one "decent" but still obviously better than a guy who averaged 4.8?

 
cjv123 said:
No, but it is a fact. I was also impressed by a columnist earlier this preseason saying Breida was better than McKinnon. Also, I did own Breida a spell last year and he was decent.
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What, exactly, is he better at?

YPC-Morris’ was higher.

Catch rate-Morris’ was higher (admittedly a small sample size).

Drop rate-Breida’s was MUCH higher (highest drop rate amongst RBs).

Speed-only real edge Breida has

 
Bayhawks said:
What, exactly, is he better at?

YPC-Morris’ was higher.

Catch rate-Morris’ was higher (admittedly a small sample size).

Drop rate-Breida’s was MUCH higher (highest drop rate amongst RBs).

Speed-only real edge Breida has
Click to expand...
By your logic, SF should have signed Morris instead of McKinnon, since his YPC was higher.

 
Next year McKinnon will be a 27 year old RB returning from ACL surgery and never having secured a starting job or having had a great season.  Sorry but he is toast and simply is not cut out to be an everydown back.  He was always dinged up with the Vikings.

 
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