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OldTomMesko

David Johnson for 3 2018 1sts??

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12 team PPR dynasty. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR). IDP. 

Current relevant roster: 

QB: Rodgers, Dalton, Hoyer, Watson

RB: Fournette, McCaffery, Cook, Bernard

WR: Hilton, Baldwin, Crabtree, Enunwa, Godwin, Stills, DeSean Jackson

TE: Henry, Engram, Bennett.

 

This is our first year of a startup. An owner in my league just offered me David Johnson for my 3 2018 1sts. My gut says to take it, as this could set me up to dominate for the foreseeable future. But I'm also a Penn State fan who wants to do all I can to land Barkley. Do I take this deal? I could always deal Johnson later for draft capital or Barkley+ at a later time. With my current roster, is it worth taking this deal and pushing for the championship this year and worrying about next year as it comes? Or do I stay put in anticipation of adding more high draft capital through next year's draft? 

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The whole point is to win.  I do not value draft picks as much as many folks so I would normally do this deal rather easily (assuming the three picks are spread out in round 1 and not 3 of the top 5 or something like that).  Looking at your roster you are more set up for a run at a title in 2-3 years depending on how your gambles at RB pay off.  Your WR's are ok but no true #1 guy so you could use some star power. 

 

Johnson is a huge stabilizing force but I am not sure he really puts you over the top.  I guess you gotta weigh whether you think Johnson puts you in a position to win now or whether your build for the future strategy should continue with the picks.  Worst case scenario you trade the three picks for Johnson and then flip him once you know the pick order for next year and try and get an impact player if your RB's start panning out.   

 

I would go back with an offer of 2 of the 1st rounders  or get a 2nd rounder back with Johnson.  If he balks I probably do the deal anyway.....like I said, I don't value picks as much as most.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Gally said:

Your WR's are ok but no true #1 guy so you could use some star power. 

You don't think Hilton is a #1 guy? I feel that he is typically undervalued when it comes to the top WRs. I don't think he's in the elite tier, but he is a rock solid WR1 with a elite QB throwing to him. Baldwin is one of the most consistently underrated WRs. He should give low WR1/high WR2 numbers. Crabtree is a solid flex who isn't pretty but is consistent. Johnson essentially gives both RB 1 and WR/3 numbers most weeks. It's like having an extra player. If I swing this deal, I may look at trying to package Hilton and Cook for one of the top WRs. 

I appreciate your feedback! 
 

 

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I would take it and take it fast before he retracts the offer...yes your WR's arnt that awesome but Johnson for 3 unknown future players...you can always try and work a trade during the season to get back into the first round.

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I see no reason not to make that deal. Your WR are good enough, and if you run into a jam there, you have any 1 of your 3 rookie RB's this year you could deal.

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Getting one of the top 3 stud young RB's is a huge edge on the competition.  usually giving up (3) 1st's for a RB would be a questionable move but if you can get DJ/Bell/Zeke it's worth it.

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Hilton is the #1 for Indy but I wouldn't put him as a guy I would want as my #1 WR.  I can think of 12-15 other WR's I would rather have in that spot.  He is a great WR2 for fantasy purposes.  I think the same for Baldwin.  A great #2 guy but wouldn't want him as my #1.  Like I said, your WR's are ok but you lack the true #1 star.

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You have to take that deal.  Johnson is a top 6 or 7 dynasty player.  The odds that one of your 1sts in 2018 produces that type of player is not very high.

Sure your WRs probably below average, but you will have the #1 RB and the #1 QB, plus a lot of RB depth which you could use to trade and get a better WR for a chance of winning now.

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29 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

You have to take that deal.  Johnson is a top 6 or 7 dynasty player.  The odds that one of your 1sts in 2018 produces that type of player is not very high.

Sure your WRs probably below average, but you will have the #1 RB and the #1 QB, plus a lot of RB depth which you could use to trade and get a better WR for a chance of winning now.

I'm confused as to why everything thinks this.

In 2015, in PPR leagues, Doug Baldwin finished #10 among WRs, Crabtree #17, and Hilton #23. 

In 2016, in PPR leagues, TY Hilton finished #5 among WRs, Baldwin #8, Crabtree #12.

Yes, all of them are around age 28, so they aren't super young. But in each of the last 2 years, they have had top 25 finishes, last year all three in the top 12. In a 12 team league, that's 3 WR1s by my count. Do I expect them to repeat that? Not at all. But each has a strong track record, and each has a top QB throwing them the ball. I see no reason why they each can't finish in the top 30 again. I'd say that's a pretty strong WR core, not a below average one. 

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6 minutes ago, OldTomMesko said:

I'm confused as to why everything thinks this.

In 2015, in PPR leagues, Doug Baldwin finished #10 among WRs, Crabtree #17, and Hilton #23. 

In 2016, in PPR leagues, TY Hilton finished #5 among WRs, Baldwin #8, Crabtree #12.

Yes, all of them are around age 28, so they aren't super young. But in each of the last 2 years, they have had top 25 finishes, last year all three in the top 12. In a 12 team league, that's 3 WR1s by my count. Do I expect them to repeat that? Not at all. But each has a strong track record, and each has a top QB throwing them the ball. I see no reason why they each can't finish in the top 30 again. I'd say that's a pretty strong WR core, not a below average one. 

I though this thread was about you getting Johnson....not defending your average WR core...lol

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Just now, slicedbred21 said:

I though this thread was about you getting Johnson....not defending your average WR core...lol

Touche haha. But to be fair, nearly everyone in this thread has commented on my "below average WR core" when I didn't ask about it. People seem to think that I need more help at WR than I do at RB, but I would very much disagree. I'll take 3 guys who just finished top 12 at their position over 3 rookies yet to play a snap at their position. ;)

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Just now, OldTomMesko said:

Touche haha. But to be fair, nearly everyone in this thread has commented on my "below average WR core" when I didn't ask about it. People seem to think that I need more help at WR than I do at RB, but I would very much disagree. I'll take 3 guys who just finished top 12 at their position over 3 rookies yet to play a snap at their position. ;)

I agree with this completely...which i also why i said if i were you i would take Johnson for the 3 1st rounders.

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4 minutes ago, slicedbred21 said:

I agree with this completely...which i also why i said if i were you i would take Johnson for the 3 1st rounders.

I'm planning on it. Waiting to accept as I am working out another big deal to add another elite piece. Don't want the other owner to see me get Johnson and not want to negotiate. The other owners already see me as a potential threat. Trying to negotiate separately so as not to interfere with myself. 

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24 minutes ago, OldTomMesko said:

I'm confused as to why everything thinks this.

In 2015, in PPR leagues, Doug Baldwin finished #10 among WRs, Crabtree #17, and Hilton #23. 

In 2016, in PPR leagues, TY Hilton finished #5 among WRs, Baldwin #8, Crabtree #12.

Yes, all of them are around age 28, so they aren't super young. But in each of the last 2 years, they have had top 25 finishes, last year all three in the top 12. In a 12 team league, that's 3 WR1s by my count. Do I expect them to repeat that? Not at all. But each has a strong track record, and each has a top QB throwing them the ball. I see no reason why they each can't finish in the top 30 again. I'd say that's a pretty strong WR core, not a below average one. 

From a redraft perspective, you're right that your WRs are pretty good....but not as good from a dynasty perspective.    You don't have a true #1, so you're way behind the owners who own Brown, OBJ, Julio, Evans, and AJ Green.  

Just looking at FBG dynasty rankings, they have Hilton at WR9, Baldwin at WR19, and Crabtree at WR28.  So you have a weak WR1, an average WR2, and a slightly above average WR3.  Given that you are far behind WR groups with an elite option, I would conclude your WR core is slightly below average, which is consistent with what everyone thinks.

It won't kill your team, let's be clear.....you will have Rodgers and Johnson carrying your team, and you have really good young RB depth.  Your team will be very competitive, but you will need to start looking to replenish your WRs for the future.

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2 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

From a redraft perspective, you're right that your WRs are pretty good....but not as good from a dynasty perspective.    You don't have a true #1, so you're way behind the owners who own Brown, OBJ, Julio, Evans, and AJ Green.  

Just looking at FBG dynasty rankings, they have Hilton at WR9, Baldwin at WR19, and Crabtree at WR28.  So you have a weak WR1, an average WR2, and a slightly above average WR3.  Given that you are far behind WR groups with an elite option, I would conclude your WR core is slightly below average, which is consistent with what everyone thinks.

It won't kill your team, let's be clear.....you will have Rodgers and Johnson carrying your team, and you have really good young RB depth.  Your team will be very competitive, but you will need to start looking to replenish your WRs for the future.

If you are constantly planning 6 years in the future, sure. But for a 2-3 year window, which is still difficult to project, I don't see a huge dropoff coming for any of these guys. They should each stay in the top 30, and Indy still hasn't added any great WR help. I don't believe in Moncrief as more than a TD vulture. I don't see a single reason he can't be top 8 again. I didn't realize that anyone lacking AB, OBJ, Julio, Evans, or AJG was at such a great disadvantage that they are immediately a below average core. 

Baldwin is one of 5 WRs to finish top 10 each of the last 2 years: AB, Julio, OBJ, Fitzgerald, and Baldwin. That's pretty dang good company, especially when AB, Julio, and Fitz are all older than him. (AB and Julio are also 28, but earlier in the year - I know, technicality). 

Full disclosure: I'm still looking to move Hilton + a rookie RB for one of the elite WRs. I just think that the fantasy community at large undervalues the consistency of some WRs (like Baldwin and Crabtree). I also think Hilton is closer to the elite range than people tend to give him credit for. 

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Easy accept then I try to package one of your other young backs with Crabtree and go get a stud receiver.

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31 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Easy accept then I try to package one of your other young backs with Crabtree and go get a stud receiver.

Agreed. I'm working hard right now to add a stud WR. Might have a shot at either Cooper or A Brown. Waiting to get confirmation. Small chance I'm able to land both. 

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18 hours ago, OldTomMesko said:

Touche haha. But to be fair, nearly everyone in this thread has commented on my "below average WR core" when I didn't ask about it. People seem to think that I need more help at WR than I do at RB, but I would very much disagree. I'll take 3 guys who just finished top 12 at their position over 3 rookies yet to play a snap at their position. ;)

Of course, but the WR discussion wasn't about your three WR's vs 3 rookies.  It was just saying that you could use a top WR.  Your 3 are decent but not sexy.  I think that was what most were trying to say.   

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David Johnson for only draft picks?  Hell yes!  You're team could be set for a couple years having him on your team.  If you feel desperate to get more draft picks back then try trading some other player next year.  My goal is always to win this year, not 4 years down the road.  Fantasy leagues are always too fragile and hard to keep intact it seems so I prefer to win now while the league is going strong.

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@Gally @slicedbred21 @msudaisy26 @fightingillini

To update everyone...I made three big trades today. 

1) Gave: 3 2018 1sts. Received: David Johnson.

2) Gave: TY Hilton + Zay Jones. Received: Amari Cooper. 

3) Gave: Leonard Fournette + Hunter Henry + Michael Crabtree. Received: Antonio Brown + Gerald Everett. 

Post-trade roster: QB - Aaron Rodgers, Dalton, Watson. RB - DJ, Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey, Bernard. WR - Antonio Brown, Cooper, Baldwin, DeSean, Enunwa, Stills, Godwin. TE - Martellus, Engram, Everett. 

Thoughts?? 

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I don't like the 2nd trade, but I like Hilton more than most. Overall good job

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9 hours ago, OldTomMesko said:

@Gally @slicedbred21 @msudaisy26 @fightingillini

To update everyone...I made three big trades today. 

1) Gave: 3 2018 1sts. Received: David Johnson.

2) Gave: TY Hilton + Zay Jones. Received: Amari Cooper. 

3) Gave: Leonard Fournette + Hunter Henry + Michael Crabtree. Received: Antonio Brown + Gerald Everett. 

Post-trade roster: QB - Aaron Rodgers, Dalton, Watson. RB - DJ, Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey, Bernard. WR - Antonio Brown, Cooper, Baldwin, DeSean, Enunwa, Stills, Godwin. TE - Martellus, Engram, Everett. 

Thoughts?? 

Obviously love the 1st trade.  DJ will be an elite RB1 for at least 2-3 years.

Like the second deal as well.  Hilton and Cooper are about the same for this year, but Cooper is much younger and has potential to be a super elite WR.  Zay Jones is a nice prospect though, but his situation isn't that great.

LOVE the 3rd trade.  Sold all your guys high for the top WR in fantasy football.

You lose at 2nd RB and TE, but man, you have the top QB, one of the top RBs, and your WR group of Brown, Cooper and Baldwin should be the best in the league.  Cook or McCaffrey should easily be able to hold down your RB2 slot, and your TEs still should give you average production which is all you need.

Well done sir.

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9 hours ago, OldTomMesko said:

@Gally @slicedbred21 @msudaisy26 @fightingillini

To update everyone...I made three big trades today. 

1) Gave: 3 2018 1sts. Received: David Johnson.

2) Gave: TY Hilton + Zay Jones. Received: Amari Cooper. 

3) Gave: Leonard Fournette + Hunter Henry + Michael Crabtree. Received: Antonio Brown + Gerald Everett. 

Post-trade roster: QB - Aaron Rodgers, Dalton, Watson. RB - DJ, Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey, Bernard. WR - Antonio Brown, Cooper, Baldwin, DeSean, Enunwa, Stills, Godwin. TE - Martellus, Engram, Everett. 

Thoughts?? 

Very nicely done.  That is a way to coordinate trades to make an overall huge improvement.  Getting 2 of the top 5 dynasty assets is outstanding.

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10 hours ago, OldTomMesko said:

@Gally @slicedbred21 @msudaisy26 @fightingillini

To update everyone...I made three big trades today. 

1) Gave: 3 2018 1sts. Received: David Johnson.

2) Gave: TY Hilton + Zay Jones. Received: Amari Cooper. 

3) Gave: Leonard Fournette + Hunter Henry + Michael Crabtree. Received: Antonio Brown + Gerald Everett. 

Post-trade roster: QB - Aaron Rodgers, Dalton, Watson. RB - DJ, Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey, Bernard. WR - Antonio Brown, Cooper, Baldwin, DeSean, Enunwa, Stills, Godwin. TE - Martellus, Engram, Everett. 

Thoughts?? 

Well done, i would love to pull off those moves.

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