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Auction Strategy Thread 2017 (1 Viewer)

Hawkeye21

Footballguy
We usually have an auction thread every year and even though most here do standard drafts and are more focused on dynasty leagues I think some still enjoy discussing it this early.  I know that most auction strategies are pretty much already well known but some can be tweaked or looked into more in depth.  Not only that but there can be different versions of auction drafts like for instance the league I'm in only auctions the first 10 rounds and then switches to a snake draft for the remainder 6 rounds.

Today I was putting some thought into nomination strategies and if it can make a difference or not.  I was thinking of nominating a QB every round when it was my turn and what that might do to the draft or if it would make a difference at all.

Last year I tried a new strategy where I only paid for RBs and WRs with my auction money and then picked up my QB, TE, DST and some backups in the snake portion, I did not draft a K.  It actually worked out alright.  Past years I've been heavy on WRs but this year I might try a more balanced attack with landing a top QB, RB and WR with a mid tier TE.

 
Early on, nominate players you don't want but would be okay having if a great value.  Assess what others are doing.

In auctions I've been in, the first couple elite players are decent values, then players get expensive, then after everyone has a starting qb or te, the others can be fairly cheap.

 Rookies are pricey. 

 
Early on, nominate players you don't want but would be okay having if a great value.  Assess what others are doing.

In auctions I've been in, the first couple elite players are decent values, then players get expensive, then after everyone has a starting qb or te, the others can be fairly cheap.

 Rookies are pricey. 
I read a great article a couple years ago about how there's a curve.  The first few guys may go at or a little below their projected price since many people are reluctant to spend money early.  Once that first tier of players gets down to one or two left then people panic and there's a bidding war on those guys which results in them over spending.

I usually try to pick a few guys that I'm willing to over spend on by a couple bucks and then I pick a few guys I feel are underrated.  I'll keep an eye on guys I like that happen to be falling below what I have their projected price at.

As for nominating QBs I was thinking of throwing out lower end QBs early like Winston and Mariota just to see if they'll go higher.  Usually those guys will fall late into the draft when everyone is down to just a dollar or two.  I'm wondering if I can get guys to spend a couple bucks more.  If not then I get a QB for a buck like I would have later in the draft anyway.  The purpose of trying this is to see if it can lower the price on some higher end players possibly but I'm not sure it would make a difference or not.

 
I read a great article a couple years ago about how there's a curve.  The first few guys may go at or a little below their projected price since many people are reluctant to spend money early.  Once that first tier of players gets down to one or two left then people panic and there's a bidding war on those guys which results in them over spending.

I usually try to pick a few guys that I'm willing to over spend on by a couple bucks and then I pick a few guys I feel are underrated.  I'll keep an eye on guys I like that happen to be falling below what I have their projected price at.

As for nominating QBs I was thinking of throwing out lower end QBs early like Winston and Mariota just to see if they'll go higher.  Usually those guys will fall late into the draft when everyone is down to just a dollar or two.  I'm wondering if I can get guys to spend a couple bucks more.  If not then I get a QB for a buck like I would have later in the draft anyway.  The purpose of trying this is to see if it can lower the price on some higher end players possibly but I'm not sure it would make a difference or not.
Agree with the strategy but not calling Mariota and Winston "lower end". Unless you mean lower top 12 and redraft.  

A couple years ago one guy started out with Russell Wilson, most thought he spent too much but he set the Market and Wilson ended up being around the 12th most expensive.  This was dynasty so a pretty good move. 

 
I read a great article a couple years ago about how there's a curve.  The first few guys may go at or a little below their projected price since many people are reluctant to spend money early.  Once that first tier of players gets down to one or two left then people panic and there's a bidding war on those guys which results in them over spending.
If I get the 1st or 2nd nomination at a live auction, I usually nominate the guy I want and go get him for the reason you describe. That was often worked well for me. I will bid loud and confidently, too, and some people naturally back off. The psychology to me is fascinating.

 
Agree with the strategy but not calling Mariota and Winston "lower end". Unless you mean lower top 12 and redraft.  

A couple years ago one guy started out with Russell Wilson, most thought he spent too much but he set the Market and Wilson ended up being around the 12th most expensive.  This was dynasty so a pretty good move. 
Yep, by low end I meant low end starter like around QB12.

 
As for nominating QBs I was thinking of throwing out lower end QBs early like Winston and Mariota just to see if they'll go higher.  Usually those guys will fall late into the draft when everyone is down to just a dollar or two.  I'm wondering if I can get guys to spend a couple bucks more.  If not then I get a QB for a buck like I would have later in the draft anyway.  The purpose of trying this is to see if it can lower the price on some higher end players possibly but I'm not sure it would make a difference or not.
In a 12 team, start 1 QB league, QBs are usually cheap. If there is a QB I really want that is mid-tier, maybe like a Mariotta, I will purposely throw out other QBs and let guys fill their QB slot. The price is almost always good by the time the 10th - 12th comes off the board.

So to address your point in your first post, I find the QB nominations don't take alot of $ off the board but do often lead to a cheap QB that I'm targeting.

 
In a 12 team, start 1 QB league, QBs are usually cheap. If there is a QB I really want that is mid-tier, maybe like a Mariotta, I will purposely throw out other QBs and let guys fill their QB slot. The price is almost always good by the time the 10th - 12th comes off the board.

So to address your point in your first post, I find the QB nominations don't take alot of $ off the board but do often lead to a cheap QB that I'm targeting.
Good point. Nominating players can fill other team's roster spots making it easier to land the guys you want. 

 
I read a great article a couple years ago about how there's a curve.  The first few guys may go at or a little below their projected price since many people are reluctant to spend money early.  Once that first tier of players gets down to one or two left then people panic and there's a bidding war on those guys which results in them over spending.
This fits my observations of how teams will use their capital during the auction as well.

I would suggest trying to use that information in the way buck naked describes. Try to go after a top player you like early on.

Because the price generally gets inflated when there are only one or two players of a tier left, so I would suggest not waiting too long. Try to get players in the middle of this tier instead of at the end of it.

So as far as nominating QB early, I am not sure if this is a particularly good strategy, as if you wait for QB 10 or later, you will get in a bidding war with the other teams also pursuing those players at the end of the tier and you may pay a similar price as the QB who are won in the middle of this.

This would be applicable to any position. I think it is better to try to get your player before they are the last couple left available in the tier at their position.

If you want other teams to spend more, then I think you should nominate other players than QB. You should be careful about waiting too long to fill positions as you may be getting bargains by waiting, but at the same time you get what you pay for. You still need some studs. By bidding strong early you may get those players at a more reasonable price.

A friend of mine plays in a league with 2 copies of each player, and this trend was pretty apparent in his auction, the second copies of a player were often more expensive than the first copy was, especially if players at that position become fewer. It is a terrific example of how supply and demand affects pricing.

 
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One of the reasons I love my league is because we have two full 12 team drafts. This means I get twice the data to work with each year.  It's amazing the difference I'll see between the two drafts. 

 
Biabreakable said:
I think it is better to try to get your player before they are the last couple left available in the tier at their position.
This is one of my #1 auction rules. If I have 3-4 players in a tier, I never wait until the last player is left in the tier. I've watched many players overpay for the last good player in the tier. I almost always avoid the overpay buying the 1st or 2nd player in the tier.

 
In dynasty auctions, don't get too locked into a preconceived plan. Be ready to go after underpriced talent, even if that leaves you with a roster that looks weird or unbalanced. There's no such thing as too many top WR prospects, for example, so if your league keeps underpricing guys like Coleman, Fuller, Ross, Doctson, and Parker then you can just keep collecting them.

 
Slightly off topic - do any other leagues do away with nominations and instead use a pre-announced ranking list to determine player order?

My league does this and I've found that it produces some crazy good value for the mid-tier players in comparison to the few highly-ranked available players. We run the draft in order from worst to best and then allow nominations on any player who didn't receive bids.

 
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Slightly off topic - do any other leagues do away with nominations and instead use a pre-announced ranking list to determine player order?

My league does this and I've found that it produces some crazy good value for the mid-tier players in comparison to the few highly-ranked available players. We run the draft in order from worst to best and then allow nominations on any player who didn't receive bids.
I've never heard of that but it sounds interesting.

 
My auction league has been going for several years now. If you can nominate a stud you are targeting in the 1st or 2nd nomination, go for it. It will often come at a discount. After that most tiers behave like a horseshoe. Expensive at the beginning and end, cheaper in the middle. Know your league. There are a few players that I know a couple owners will overpay for. When I'm doing my auction draft I keep a simple running Excel sheet where I can mock some scenarios in real time. If the studs are more expensive than you anticipated, be prepared to pay, and keep in mind this means there will be screaming deals later. 

 
Slightly off topic - do any other leagues do away with nominations and instead use a pre-announced ranking list to determine player order?

My league does this and I've found that it produces some crazy good value for the mid-tier players in comparison to the few highly-ranked available players. We run the draft in order from worst to best and then allow nominations on any player who didn't receive bids.
We use last year's auction salaries to set the auction order, with NFL Round 1 rookies inserted after the $2 players, then open nominations to fill out rosters at the end. I like doing it this way, because it's a little faster, and it gives a little more advantage to people with better strategy. You can simulate the entire auction and get a feel for where people will spend there money, and when you might want to save money for a specific guy or set of guys.

 
I would never want to do auto nominations. Booooooooo!! I absolutely love nominating expensive players that I have no interest in.

 
We're currently holding our annual salary cap dynasty auction draft. Slow draft with a 48 hour clock that resets when a player changes hands. A wide array of strategies implemented, here are a few:

Nominate a late 1st round rookie early - Kamara was put up on day 1 and was acquired for what now looks like a bargain. Owners tend to have a good sense of price on the top guys but have uncertainty as to the price of a guy down the list a bit. Often owners get zeroed in on the top guys and don't want to spend money on lesser rookies until they've landed their big targets. It's not flawless though, lots of money out there that could drive the price beyond his market value.

Nominate players of the same position as your targets - if I'm going after a RB, I will typically keep pumping RBs on the board. Owners often tend to go after the cheaper guy who's auction just started as opposed to stealing your RB. But this is an illusion as the price on that player will climb as the auction progresses.

Proxies - It's important to put in a sufficient proxy to get the guys you want off the board without being stolen. But it's also important to not always place a proxy on players, this keeps the other owners guessing as to whether a proxy exists on the player you have the high bid on in the auction. Otherwise they know they can bump the price a bit without taking the player. If they're uncertain as to a proxy bid being in place, they have to think harder about whether they want to bid on that player.

Rookies - In my league, the top 5 rookies tend to go for slightly under market value. The 6-20 range of rookies typically go over market value. The savings on the top guys usually gets pushed to the 6-20 range players. Owners get worried they will not get any rookies and overbid to ensure they land a few of those top 20. After the top 20 you see players go for much cheaper as it's a personal preference. I try to grab a top guy and a few 3rd/4th rounders due to this dynamic.

Crusty old Veterans - Rookies are all the rage this time of year. This creates an opportunity to get some of those old guys at a bargain. Forte, Woodhead, Gore all went dirt cheap.

Year 2/3 WRs - Matthews, Kev White, Doctson, Treadwell and Devante Parker all were thrown back due to not immediately living up to their high draft status. Owners are impatient. Sometimes it takes a bit for these very talented players to figure out the pro game and emerge. They can usually be had for far cheaper than a rookie with a similar dynasty rank.

 
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Nominating is a huge part of the strategy.  We do a hybrid in our dynasty league where if you are under the cap you can use that remaining money in the Restricted Free Agent (RFA) auction.  Any player on a roster the previous year that is not kept is eligible for the auction.  The team that "owned" him last year has his rights.  This means that he has the ability to match the winning bid (provided he has cap space) to take the player back.  For added strategy we allow 3 "passes".  When it is your turn to nominate you can pass and it goes to the next guy.  Once you have used your three passes you must nominate a player or you are out of the auction.   Once the RFA auction is over we start the normal Rookie/FA draft. 

It makes for a nice variation for the draft and makes for a lot more strategy going into the draft. 

 
How many of you like to grab all your top players early and then wait till the end to fill your roster with $2 and $1 players?  Or do you prefer to wait and find great deals and get a more balanced roster.

I always struggle overspending early and try to wait for good value.  This can be good and bad though.  I've had times where I was too frugal early on and then had too much money at the end.  This can be very frustrating because I can see the players I could have afforded if I just spend an extra couple bucks.  Nothing more frustrating than finishing the draft with money left over.

 
How many of you like to grab all your top players early and then wait till the end to fill your roster with $2 and $1 players?  Or do you prefer to wait and find great deals and get a more balanced roster.

I always struggle overspending early and try to wait for good value.  This can be good and bad though.  I've had times where I was too frugal early on and then had too much money at the end.  This can be very frustrating because I can see the players I could have afforded if I just spend an extra couple bucks.  Nothing more frustrating than finishing the draft with money left over.
I want to leave the auction with a stud RB1, stud WR1, and reasonable QB. Other than that I think it's important to be flexible. If I get my two studs cemented, I might go for a whole bunch of decent upside-oriented picks at both positions, or I might grab another stud at value and fill out the roster with scrubs. I've done both and had success with both.

 
I want to leave the auction with a stud RB1, stud WR1, and reasonable QB. Other than that I think it's important to be flexible. If I get my two studs cemented, I might go for a whole bunch of decent upside-oriented picks at both positions, or I might grab another stud at value and fill out the roster with scrubs. I've done both and had success with both.
The last few years I focused on WRs and tried to find a bunch of cheap RBs hoping that one would be a sleeper.  I didn't have much luck with it last year but I did have a great group or WRs.

This year I'd like to go in with a strategy like yours.  I want to get a top RB and I see plenty of good WRs I can get at affordable prices.  I'm considering actually paying more for a QB this year after ignoring the past few years.

 
LET SUCKERS OVERPAY FOR STUDS.

Seriously. It's a good general rule. Teams spending a huge chunk of their budget on Hopkins or AR15 last year probably were crippled. But know your league drafting/pricing pattern and use it to your advantage. Don't let any studs go cheap. Even if you don't want them, you can easily trade studs before week 1 to re-coup value if you got them 10-20% below what similar players cost. Random AAVs are a good tool to have, but if you can look at previous years' drafts of your league, that will generate a much more useful AAV. Just match the prices by position with a redraft ADP.

As for nominations, know your opponents. The easy rule of thumb is to nominate studs so people will use up their budget, but it can also be good to nominate popular sleepers who would probably only go for a few bucks in the late rounds and watch them get bid up while everyone has money. A great example last year was Tajae Sharpe and Dak. Sure, Dak paid off for whoever got him, but if he'd been nominated late, he'd have been cheap. When I nominated him early his price was waaay above his AAV, in the top 12 QB range. I want to say we're talking a $1 AAV player going for $10. Also, if the people in your league play a lot of dynasty, they'll typically overpay for rookie WRs/TEs. 

For my own strategy, I just look at AAVs, find the guys I see as values and try to load up on them. I don't worry about filling up my starting positions. I see my roster as an open competition all year long. No need for nominal starters. 

 
How does everyone determine the auction value of players?  Do you use a website or try to determine them on your own?

 
How does everyone determine the auction value of players?  Do you use a website or try to determine them on your own?
There are several websites that provide AAV, but they seem to vary quite a bit. The best source is historical data from your own leagues, assuming they've been going on for at least 1 year prior. 

 
There are several websites that provide AAV, but they seem to vary quite a bit. The best source is historical data from your own leagues, assuming they've been going on for at least 1 year prior. 
I use historical data and use a spreadsheet that has a formula to determine each players value based on projected scores and my league settings.  The problem for me is that those websites don't really fit my league because we only use $100 to draft 10 players each.  This causes values to change a good deal.

The most expensive players in my league go for about $30 and only a few of them go for that much.

 
I use historical data and use a spreadsheet that has a formula to determine each players value based on projected scores and my league settings.  The problem for me is that those websites don't really fit my league because we only use $100 to draft 10 players each.  This causes values to change a good deal.

The most expensive players in my league go for about $30 and only a few of them go for that much.
I meant historical draft data. Find last year's draft. Parse it in excel by position. Sort high to low for each position. Delete the names. Find a snake ADP. Past those names next to last year's values. Voila!

 
I meant historical draft data. Find last year's draft. Parse it in excel by position. Sort high to low for each position. Delete the names. Find a snake ADP. Past those names next to last year's values. Voila!
That's a pretty good idea.

 
That's a pretty good idea.
It's better than any AAV you'll find online. Like I was saying in my first post, the key to draft prep is to know your league's tendencies. Last year's draft is a great predictor of pricing patterns for this year. Due to settings, roster spots, or a prevailing mindset within a league, real auction results always seem to vary quite a bit from any AAV I can find. So if it is a new league, you need to be ready to adjust your pricing expectations quickly.

 
I've found that the spreadsheet I have figures out the values very accurately which I find very helpful.  The biggest issue with it though is that I get this mental block in my head sometimes about not going over those prices on players. 

 
It's better than any AAV you'll find online. Like I was saying in my first post, the key to draft prep is to know your league's tendencies. Last year's draft is a great predictor of pricing patterns for this year. Due to settings, roster spots, or a prevailing mindset within a league, real auction results always seem to vary quite a bit from any AAV I can find. So if it is a new league, you need to be ready to adjust your pricing expectations quickly.
My league has 24 people in it and runs two full drafts which gives me two sets of data each year to review.  I've got last 4 years of draft results all on a spreadsheet which I review each year.

 
My league has 24 people in it and runs two full drafts which gives me two sets of data each year to review.  I've got last 4 years of draft results all on a spreadsheet which I review each year.
That's perfect. If you really want to get precise you can run a linear regression on that data to smooth out your pricing.

 
That's perfect. If you really want to get precise you can run a linear regression on that data to smooth out your pricing.
At the end of the year I put in where each player finished and their total points and average points per game.  This allows me to easily see how players finished compared to how much they cost in the draft.  I've been able to see trends in certain players and can make it easier to find good value.

 
How many of you like to grab all your top players early and then wait till the end to fill your roster with $2 and $1 players?  Or do you prefer to wait and find great deals and get a more balanced roster.

I always struggle overspending early and try to wait for good value.  This can be good and bad though.  I've had times where I was too frugal early on and then had too much money at the end.  This can be very frustrating because I can see the players I could have afforded if I just spend an extra couple bucks.  Nothing more frustrating than finishing the draft with money left over.
Personally, I always find that a balanced team without studs to be a 5th place strategy.  It many times gets you to the playoffs, but you lose every time to a guy who drafted 2 studs and found a diamond in the rough for a couple of bucks....or hit big on that one free agent.

This year, I think that you have to get one of the following players.......D Johnson, Elliott, Bell, OBJ, Julio, A Brown, Evans, and AJ Green.  Spend market value or even a few bucks more to land one of these super elite players.  There are huge tier breaks between these 3 RBs and 5 WRs. 

 
Personally, I always find that a balanced team without studs to be a 5th place strategy.  It many times gets you to the playoffs, but you lose every time to a guy who drafted 2 studs and found a diamond in the rough for a couple of bucks....or hit big on that one free agent.

This year, I think that you have to get one of the following players.......D Johnson, Elliott, Bell, OBJ, Julio, A Brown, Evans, and AJ Green.  Spend market value or even a few bucks more to land one of these super elite players.  There are huge tier breaks between these 3 RBs and 5 WRs. 
Last year I bought AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans and D Thomas.  I just made it into the playoffs and got beat the first game.

 
How does everyone determine the auction value of players?  Do you use a website or try to determine them on your own?
I determine my values on my own, and then I use various websites to determine what the true market value .

So for each player I have two values....my personal value (based on my projections) and current market value.  I try and get players where my value exceeds market.

 
I determine my values on my own, and then I use various websites to determine what the true market value .

So for each player I have two values....my personal value (based on my projections) and current market value.  I try and get players where my value exceeds market.
This is the key. As I noted in last year's thread, you may want to know what your league mates are likely to pay, but what you really want to know is whether they're paying too much or not enough. Knowing that David Johnson is likely to go for $30 in your league doesn't help you decide whether you should be the one bidding $30 on him. (Or $31). 

If I may quote myself: You're not a market researcher, you're a stockbroker.

 
Here is a good nominating strategy for guys that like to go cheap at QB.

Find a QB ranked somewhere in 8-12 range that you like, but you aren't really targeting because he isn't "cheap" (your value of this QB should be higher than typical market value).  Say that QB is Winston.  Nominate Winston with your 1st nomination, and hope that you can steal him at a discount, which is possible since many owners will be saving their cash for a better QB, while others will be going the cheap route.  If you get Winston for a buck or two below market, great, he's your starting QB and you like him better than the consensus.  If Winston goes for more than market (possible since teams have a lot of money to spend early in the auction), that's great too....you pass on Winston and you essentially set the QB market for the QBs ranked higher than Winston at a higher price point.  You essentially sit back, let the QBs ranked higher than Winston go for prices that are higher than usual, and you enjoy drafting Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton for super cheap.

Now it may not work that way, but it's still a good strategy to attempt....if there is a low end QB1 that you like this year.  It's low risk, high reward.   At worst case, you pass on Winston....the QB pricing doesn't work the way you planned and you get a cheap QB anyway.  But if it works, you drain a few extra bucks from everyone's budget that is drafting top 10 QBs, and that could work wonders for you down the stretch.

 
Does anyone have experience doing an auction for a best ball league? I'd like to hear thoughts about auction strategy when you don't have to set a starting lineup each week.

 
Does anyone have experience doing an auction for a best ball league? I'd like to hear thoughts about auction strategy when you don't have to set a starting lineup each week.
I don't think the strategy would change much but the players that are boom/bust guys have more value.  The key for best ball isn't changing your draft strategy it is changing your player evaluations.

 
Does anyone have experience doing an auction for a best ball league? I'd like to hear thoughts about auction strategy when you don't have to set a starting lineup each week.
Strategy should be similar overall but values would change since there are more roster spots to fill.  Would be interesting to do though.  I imagine that would be a very long draft.

 
I don't think the strategy would change much but the players that are boom/bust guys have more value.  The key for best ball isn't changing your draft strategy it is changing your player evaluations.
Seems like the best measurement for this would be to look at mean and standard deviation for each player in our league, using our league scoring. Would this apply to all players, including studs, or only those being drafted at lower auction values? For example, in our league last year Brees and Ryan had nearly the same avg. points per game, but Brees had a higher standard deviation by almost 2 points. Should Brees be valued over Ryan because of his higher standard deviation?

 
Strategy should be similar overall but values would change since there are more roster spots to fill.  Would be interesting to do though.  I imagine that would be a very long draft.
I think the number of roster spots we use is close to the number that a redraft league uses. Our number of roster spots fluctuates based on the number of teams in the league each year, but is usually around 16 spots. The draft is long, usually lasts around 5 hours.

 
I think the number of roster spots we use is close to the number that a redraft league uses. Our number of roster spots fluctuates based on the number of teams in the league each year, but is usually around 16 spots. The draft is long, usually lasts around 5 hours.
If it's 16 roster spots then it should be much different.  Although, some positions get drafted differently in best ball leagues compared to managed leagues.  I find that QBs go a little earlier in best ball leagues.

 
Does anyone have experience doing an auction for a best ball league? I'd like to hear thoughts about auction strategy when you don't have to set a starting lineup each week.
Well I absolutely would change my approach and my valuations. I'm almost strictly a studs and scrubs (with upside) strategist in my usual auctions. I feel that with trading and waiver bidding I can fill in any weaknesses as the season progresses. I don't really believe in depth per se. But with a best ball I'm not sure that makes sense anymore. I might rather have great depth. If anybody else in such a draft feels the same way then immediately the market values start to flatten out. Roster size is a huge variable, though. I'm just thinking that if my regular big auction were suddenly a best ball, then the values would change A LOT. Instead of Antonio Brown going for 70/200 he might only go 40.  Maybe more rookies go undrafted. Non sexy guys like Sanu or Malcolm Mitchell might go up a couple bucks. I'd like to try one.

 
Well I absolutely would change my approach and my valuations. I'm almost strictly a studs and scrubs (with upside) strategist in my usual auctions. I feel that with trading and waiver bidding I can fill in any weaknesses as the season progresses. I don't really believe in depth per se. But with a best ball I'm not sure that makes sense anymore. I might rather have great depth. If anybody else in such a draft feels the same way then immediately the market values start to flatten out. Roster size is a huge variable, though. I'm just thinking that if my regular big auction were suddenly a best ball, then the values would change A LOT. Instead of Antonio Brown going for 70/200 he might only go 40.  Maybe more rookies go undrafted. Non sexy guys like Sanu or Malcolm Mitchell might go up a couple bucks. I'd like to try one.
We usually have a budget of $200 - $250 and the stud RBs and WRs still go for around $60 - $80. Sanu went for $4.

 

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