Dynasty Trade Advice (1 Viewer)

I have been offered CJ Anderson and in return I would be giving up a conditional 2018 pick.  If he gets 1001 + all purpose yards I give up my 1st in 2018 but if his all purpose yards at 1000 or less I give up my 2nd round in 2018.  I think its worth the gamble, CJ would be a every week starter if healthy,   We start 2-3 RB's and its a non ppr league. 

My current RB's:

Charles, Jamaal DEN RB

Coleman, Tevin ATL RB

Hill, Jeremy CIN RB

Johnson, Duke CLE RB

Montgomery, Ty GBP RB

Prosise, C.J. SEA RB

Sims, Charles TBB RB

Thank you in advance for the help!!

It is an interesting proposal because it is somewhat in the form of a bet.

Do you think Anderson will have over 1000 combined yards or not?

I am not sure why a season of 1000 combined yards would be worth a 1st round pick however. Terrance West had over 1000 combined yards last season but he was RB 24 in standard scoring leagues. TJ Yeldon cleared 1000 combined yards in 2015 and was RB 27. Fred Jackson in 2014 was RB 22. Andre Ellington in 2013 and 2014 had over 1000 combined yards and was RB 24 and 20 respectively. It takes something more than 1000 combined yards for these players to really be valuable in fantasy.

Anderson was RB 11 in 2014 the only time he cleared 1000 combined yards. This was with Peyton Manning though, and he also scored 10 TD.

In 2015 with 903 yards Anderson was RB 30.

I see this proposal as a suckers bet, because 1000 yards isn't that hard for a player to get and doing so does not garuntee they are a good starting option. I see 1000 yards as being worth a 2nd round pick not a 1st round pick. I would want to set the bar higher than this for the conditions of the trade. For example 1200 yards.

The way this offer is currently the owner of Anderson can't really lose the deal. If Anderson fails to get 1k yards he still gets a 2nd round pick. If he does clear 1k yards Anderson still might only be a RB two (or worse) in 2017 and no real garuntee he will get another year of opportunity to be that. Anderson still hasn't cleared 200 rushing attempts in a season because he is often hurt. This goes back to his college career as well. If I were to make a conditional trade of bet about this, I might rather set the bar based on Anderson getting over 220 or rushing attempts, than the 1l combined yards.

Rookie picks can bust too of course, but I like your chances of getting a player who can put up 1k combined yards in the 1st round of a fantasy rookie draft at some point of their career if not multiple times in their career than the chances of Anderson putting up 1k yards multiple more times in his career.

hard to say without knowing league dynamics an the rest of your team.  that rb core doesn't make me the most comfortable but maybe your other positions are top notch.  my worry would be anderson would limp to 1001 yards and still not be a difference maker for you and you'd end up giving up an early 1st.  

if you like anderson to blow up, then it's a no-brainer, but that's not something i'd be comfortable saying.

Thank yall for the advice!  I'm going to have to re-work this offer and see what I can come up with.  I think Anderson if healthy can be a good producer for my team but even if he breaks that 1001 yard mark he's not worth a 1st.

I would want to hinge the condition on pts scored or TD's.  As Biabreakable stated.....1000 combined yards is fairly meaningless in fantasy scoring and wouldn't be where I put the cut off.  In addition, I am not that high on Anderson so I wouldn't want to give up an unconditional 2nd round pick for him let alone the possibility of a 1st with a mediocre output. 

I also think that's a sucker bet like what Biabreakable said.  1000 all purpose yards isn't really hard to achieve and I would hate to give up a good 1st round pick for a player whose ceiling is a RB2.  I can't see DEN scoring enough for Anderson to get 10+ TDs.

You're essentially taking on all the risk here.  I would never give up a 1st rounder for Anderson, even if he has a good 2017 year.  I can't see him being the guy for 2-3 years.  I would rather gamble on a younger player.

Pass.

I definitely think CJ Anderson could be a bounce back candidate, but the 2018 class looks very strong.  Even if he stumbles to 1000 yards, I don't think he's a long term answer.  Happily give up a second for him, but not a 1st.