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Tampa Bay Backfield: Martin Sims Rodgers McNichols (1 Viewer)

az_prof

az_prof

Footballguy
Wonder what people's thoughts are on this backfield for 2017.

Martin is sidelined for the first three games, is getting up in age at 28, and had a horrible 2016.  He has had two stellar seasons in his career.

Sims is the likely starter while Martin is out but he is 27 and has never done much beyond catch out of the backfield.  

Rodgers is 27 and hadn't done much until last year when he filled in for Martin and did pretty well.  He is too small to be anything more than a change of pace back IMO.

That leaves the intriguing rookie, McNichols.  He is recovering from shoulder surgery so he hasn't been generating a ton of off season news, but he has an opportunity to be a factor even as a rookie despite being only a 5th round pick.  I like the following:

a. opportunity

b. size--5'09'' and 214 is compact build and enough size to be an every down back.

c. quickness and elusiveness: his 3 cone drill was the best at the combine and confirms the elusiveness and ability to juke, change direction, and quickly accelerate again that I see on his highlight film.

d. Sims and Rodgers are good receivers too, but McNichols also is an outstanding receiver.

His injury could linger and hamper his development. Sims could improve his running to match his outstanding receiving. Doug Martin could come back after  suspension and return to the form he had in 2012 and 2015. But if Martin has lost it, it seems to me that McNichols has as much a shot at getting meaningful work this year as Sims and Rodgers and he is better suited to being the primary runner with them being complementary than the other way around. 

 
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Rhythmdoctor said:
Didn't McCaffrey have the best3 cone time? Also, I'll be shocked if McNichols is a FF contributor this season. 
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Thanks for correction. I was going off the nfl.com combine profile website where it said Top Performer for his score, but that must mean Top 5 or something like that because he was 4th best for Rbs.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/jeremy-mcnichols?id=2557977

Do you think Sims is that much better and will dominate first three games and that Martin comes back to 2015 form after that? Or what is your thinking on the backfield overall?  

 
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My 2 cents on the situation:

Rodgers showed he can carry the load for short stretches, so I am expecting weeks 1-3 to be Rodgers in a 2-down role and Sims as the primary receiving back. McNichols could impress enough early, but rookies rarely impress enough to be week 1 starters, and McNichols is behind the 8-ball starting injured. I view McNichols situation similar to Smallwood's last year (who I liked, although as a player I like McNichols a bit more). He has a window to impress early, but like Smallwood, him not being healthy makes it unlikely that he does enough in camp to take the job before Martin is back.

After that is anyone's guess, as the Bucs will have to choose to cut one of Quizz , McNichols, Martin, or Barber (who they keep saying they like). If the Bucs see enough from McNichols and Quizz by week 3, I think they will part with Martin. But I think the most likely scenario is that Quizz carries the load for 3 weeks, Martin is activated and Barber (or maybe Quizz) is released, and then Martin slowly takes over the primary rushing role that he had in 2015. With Martin's history of looking good with money on the line, I think he will look like 2015 form. Sims maintains the passing game role that he had in 2015 regardless if it is Rodgers, McNichols, or Martin sharing the backfield with him.

If I am not mistaken, the Bucs are off the hook for guaranteed money for the rest of Martin's contract, including going into next offseason. If that is the case, McNichols may have a chance to prove himself later in the season, and if he looks good, could provide enough incentive for the Bucs to release Martin and his ~$8m cap hit in 2018. Even if McNichols doesn't do much, I would view Martin as strictly a 1 year player given his contract situation and no future guaranteed money after the suspension. 

 
Martin will be the early down back and will likely do some 3 down work. Sims will be the main 3rd down back, though. Quiz starts those first 3 games and then McNichols or Barber go to PS. Can't imagine they would keep 4. 

I think this offense goes nuts this year, though, and I see Martin and Sims as very large bargains right now. I think Martin has weekly RB1 upside once he is back. 

 
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az_prof said:
Thanks for correction. I was going off the nfl.com combine profile website where it said Top Performer for his score, but that must mean Top 5 or something like that because he was 4th best for Rbs.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/jeremy-mcnichols?id=2557977

Do you think Sims is that much better and will dominate first three games and that Martin comes back to 2015 form after that? Or what is your thinking on the backfield overall?  
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I think Rodgers will be the starter for weeks 1-3 with Sims as the COP back.  Then I expect Doug Martin to be the starter ROS.  From all accounts, he's doing great and I think he got clean/sober in the off season as well, so if that sticks, I'd predict good things from Martin.  McNichols is going to need a Martin failure/injury and a Rodgers subsequent failure/injury to see much playing time, unless of course, he really shines in TC.

 
28 is not "getting up in age" for RBs. My stance on Martin since he was a prospect has not changed. I think he's a good, not great NFL starting caliber RB. However, that makes him likely much better than McNichols, so I'm going to say there's nothing to see her folks. 

 
az_prof said:
Wonder what people's thoughts are on this backfield for 2017.

Martin is sidelined for the first three games, is getting up in age at 28, and had a horrible 2016.  He has had two stellar seasons in his career.

Sims is the likely starter while Martin is out but he is 27 and has never done much beyond catch out of the backfield.  

Rodgers is 27 and hadn't done much until last year when he filled in for Martin and did pretty well.  He is too small to be anything more than a change of pace back IMO.

That leaves the intriguing rookie, McNichols.  He is recovering from shoulder surgery so he hasn't been generating a ton of off season news, but he has an opportunity to be a factor even as a rookie despite being only a 5th round pick.  I like the following:

a. opportunity

b. size--5'09'' and 214 is compact build and enough size to be an every down back.

c. quickness and elusiveness: his 3 cone drill was the best at the combine and confirms the elusiveness and ability to juke, change direction, and quickly accelerate again that I see on his highlight film.

d. Sims and Rodgers are good receivers too, but McNichols also is an outstanding receiver.

His injury could linger and hamper his development. Sims could improve his running to match his outstanding receiving. Doug Martin could come back after  suspension and return to the form he had in 2012 and 2015. But if Martin has lost it, it seems to me that McNichols has as much a shot at getting meaningful work this year as Sims and Rodgers and he is better suited to being the primary runner with them being complementary than the other way around. 
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Martin only had two stellar seasons - but he also only had two healthy seasons. "getting up there in age" is a real stretch to make a point. Sure from a dynasty perspective he doesn't have a lot of years left but from a single season perspective being 28 is not a negative. 

You are also leaving out Peyton Barber who was arguably a better prospect than McNichols and looked good in spot duty last season. It's possible McNichols doesn't even make the team (which his own HC has said) especially if he misses time into training camp.

Rodgers should start the season as the feature back (with Sims mixed in) and when Martin comes back it's his show most likely.

McNichols is surely a decent dynasty flier but he's far from a lock to contribute.

 
I feel like Doug Martin is fool's gold this year. The only guy I really like is Sims, because I think his role is completely safe. But its really only valuable in PPR leagues. I think McNichols is a nice stash for dynasty leaguers.

 
28 is definitely old for an NFL running back. While there are guys who play into their early 30s, typically that is only HOF type guys. Average NFL running back career is 3 years.  Martin has had a couple of great years and typically players who have Pro Bowl years are able to have longer careers. But he has had some really bad years too.  His profile does not look like the kind of profile where a guy makes it to 30 as a starting back.

 
az_prof said:
28 is definitely old for an NFL running back. While there are guys who play into their early 30s, typically that is only HOF type guys. Average NFL running back career is 3 years.  Martin has had a couple of great years and typically players who have Pro Bowl years are able to have longer careers. But he has had some really bad years too.  His profile does not look like the kind of profile where a guy makes it to 30 as a starting back.
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No. No, it is not. 28 is old for a JAG. JAGs and guys who are worse than JAGs lead to that 3 year career number you are referencing. Typically those guys get phased out as rookies have more upside and cost less than the veteran minimum, but for a starting caliber RB, 28 is not old. Physical abilities have not yet diminished at that age. If Doug was a good, not great starter as a 24 year old, he'll be a good, not great starter at age 28. Unless a guy has a significant injury, he's the same player at 28 as he was at 24. If Doug was a JAG, or even a below average starter caliber guy, the Bucs would have let him go rather than keep him on at his current price tag. His suspension voided his guaranteed money. They could let him go and save a lot of money if they believed in Sims, Barber, Rodgers, and McNichols.

You are grasping for excuses to get excited about McNichols. I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but Doug's age is not a reason to get pumped about McNichols.

Thomas Jones was no HoF guy, but he got 245 carries at age 32 (and averaged over 300 carries/year from ages 28-31). Cedric Benson got 321 carries at age 28 and 273 at age 29. Michael Turner had over 300 carries at age 28 and 29. McGahee had 249 carries at age 30. None of these guys are HoF type guys. So again, 28 isn't old for a starting caliber RB.

FWIW, I own zero Doug Martin stock. I think he's a nice cheap pick this year, though.

 
az_prof said:
Average NFL running back career is 3 years.  
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This is absolutely irrelevant to Martin being "old" at 28. This takes into account the 100s and 100s of RBs that wash out of the league after a season or two or that never recover from injuries. It does not mean that a guy plays three years and then all of a sudden can not play anymore.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
This is absolutely irrelevant to Martin being "old" at 28. This takes into account the 100s and 100s of RBs that wash out of the league after a season or two or that never recover from injuries. It does not mean that a guy plays three years and then all of a sudden can not play anymore.
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Probably also includes UDFA guys who are activated for like 3 games from the practice squad and never heard from again, yet their career length is listed as 1 year.

 
Also, and possibly more importantly than who is taking handoffs from Winston (at least for Bucs' fans), is the return of JR Sweezy and the move of Ali Marpet from guard to center to replace Joe Hawley.  Donovan Smith and these two guys are maulers.  Add in O.J. Howard's blocking ability on the edge with the respect that will need to be paid to the weapons on the outside and this could be a very potent run game.

 
I think we can tell what the OP is leaning toward in his posting. 

jtd13 said:
My 2 cents on the situation:

Rodgers showed he can carry the load for short stretches, so I am expecting weeks 1-3 to be Rodgers in a 2-down role and Sims as the primary receiving back. McNichols could impress enough early, but rookies rarely impress enough to be week 1 starters, and McNichols is behind the 8-ball starting injured. I view McNichols situation similar to Smallwood's last year (who I liked, although as a player I like McNichols a bit more). He has a window to impress early, but like Smallwood, him not being healthy makes it unlikely that he does enough in camp to take the job before Martin is back.

If I am not mistaken, the Bucs are off the hook for guaranteed money for the rest of Martin's contract, including going into next offseason. If that is the case, McNichols may have a chance to prove himself later in the season, and if he looks good, could provide enough incentive for the Bucs to release Martin and his ~$8m cap hit in 2018. Even if McNichols doesn't do much, I would view Martin as strictly a 1 year player given his contract situation and no future guaranteed money after the suspension. 
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I agree, Rodgers has shown he CAN be more than a change of pace back. 
I do believe that TB is on the hook for his guaranteed money if they keep him after his suspension? I'm not sure, but I thought someone had said in the Martin thread that TB has until after his suspension to release him without any cap penalty... 

FF Ninja said:
28 is not "getting up in age" for RBs. My stance on Martin since he was a prospect has not changed. I think he's a good, not great NFL starting caliber RB. However, that makes him likely much better than McNichols, so I'm going to say there's nothing to see her folks. 
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Rhythmdoctor said:
I think Rodgers will be the starter for weeks 1-3 with Sims as the COP back.  Then I expect Doug Martin to be the starter ROS.
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The above 2 posts are the best synopsis of this scenario IMO

Rodgers 3 weeks as the starter with Sims in his normal role. Then Martin/Sims the rest of season 

 
McNichols is young, was highly productive both rushing and receiving at Boise State, has a great BMI, and tested well at the combine. What's not to like? He's a better rb than Quiz and Sims, and likely Martin as well.

 
maf005 said:
McNichols is young, was highly productive both rushing and receiving at Boise State, has a great BMI, and tested well at the combine. What's not to like? He's a better rb than Quiz and Sims, and likely Martin as well.
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Wow quite the claim for a 5th round RB. 

Sounds like a Madden 2003 dream (RB toss = 80 yard TD)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706694-jeremy-mcnichols-nfl-draft-2017-scouting-report-for-tampa-bay-buccaneers-pick

McNichols wants to take every run outside the tackle box and loves to turn the corner. He’s not a physical between-the-tackles runner and has nine fumbles in two seasons, which points to a struggle with ball security. McNichols is a finesse runner who, as one scout put it, “wants to tip-toe through the tulips”. McNichols had a torn labrum repaired after the combine and could miss some time early.
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I'm not so sure he is as sexy of a "sleeper" pick for TB's RB situation as people would like to think, barring injury. This time of year people get super excited over any rookie, especially RBs no matter what round they're selected in (see Washington- RB DET 2016 thread)

He's in an intriguing situation because Quiz isn't a super awesome long term answer. Sims can't carry the load 100% from what he showed last year. Martin is a questionmark but reports seem to be favorable. This could be a classic example of a guy who might not have much value until week 14 or so. And even then it's a few carries a game. IMO if Martin takes a dive they are more likely to do a RBBC with Quiz and Sims, with McNichols getting maybe a few carries than handing the keys to the kingdom to a rookie- in a year where I think TB will take a huge step 

Dynasty guys can stash him. Redraft keep an eye on him and see what TB does next off season, especially if Martin fizzles. 

If he was on a different team with a more favorable scenario in front of him, I'd be more excited, but I'm not sure I see it. I'm sure I'm wrong. So buy this guy immediately lol 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
do believe that TB is on the hook for his guaranteed money if they keep him after his suspension? I'm not sure, but I thought someone had said in the Martin thread that TB has until after his suspension to release him without any cap penalty... 
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I was wondering about this, so I looked it up further and it turns out it is a moot point. His original contract had no guarantees after 2017 (according to his spotrac page).

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Martin only had two stellar seasons - but he also only had two healthy seasons. "getting up there in age" is a real stretch to make a point. Sure from a dynasty perspective he doesn't have a lot of years left but from a single season perspective being 28 is not a negative. 

You are also leaving out Peyton Barber who was arguably a better prospect than McNichols and looked good in spot duty last season. It's possible McNichols doesn't even make the team (which his own HC has said) especially if he misses time into training camp.

Rodgers should start the season as the feature back (with Sims mixed in) and when Martin comes back it's his show most likely.

McNichols is surely a decent dynasty flier but he's far from a lock to contribute.
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A fifth round pick is not guaranteed to make at team but I don't see why you think Barber is a better prospect. He had a horrendous 40 time and went undrafted.  He didn't do anything last year despite opportunity to distinguish himself.  McNichols offers catching ability like a wide receiver but in a running back's body; I don't see that same versatility from Barber.


 
jtd13 said:
I was wondering about this, so I looked it up further and it turns out it is a moot point. His original contract had no guarantees after 2017 (according to his spotrac page).
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Right Tampa is on hook for 2017 as I see it so it wouldn't make sense to cut him this year. But they are not on the hook for the 6.75 M he is owed in 2018 if he stays on the roster. So if he isn't a superstar in 2017, I would expect them to cut him or force a renegotiation in off season before 2018.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/doug-martin-9841/

 
az_prof said:
A fifth round pick is not guaranteed to make at team but I don't see why you think Barber is a better prospect. He had a horrendous 40 time and went undrafted.  He didn't do anything last year despite opportunity to distinguish himself.  McNichols offers catching ability like a wide receiver but in a running back's body; I don't see that same versatility from Barber.
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I don't really see all that much difference between a 5th round pick and an UDFA at RB, and Barber had his backers as a prospect which is why its "arguable". Barber didn't get all that much opportunity but averaged 4.1 ypc and caught 4 of the 5 passes thrown to see when he got some time due to injuries. I'm not saying he's a lock to make the roster either but he's one more RB McNichols is competing with for playing time and a roster spot and as an incumbent he probably has a slight advantage.

You are going out of your way to make McNichols something, when all he is is a decent flier. I took him in the 4th round of a rookie draft with that hope as well, but I'm not pretending Martin is old or a bum and that Sims or Rodgers are afterthoughts either. If McNichols is active on game days thats a "win" at this point and then we can hope he makes the most of any opportunities he gets due to Injuries.

 
az_prof said:
Right Tampa is on hook for 2017 as I see it so it wouldn't make sense to cut him this year. But they are not on the hook for the 6.75 M he is owed in 2018 if he stays on the roster. So if he isn't a superstar in 2017, I would expect them to cut him or force a renegotiation in off season before 2018.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/doug-martin-9841/
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Well, they are no longer on the hook this year, thanks to the suspension. They aren't exactly strapped for cash though, so they won't cut him unless they just don't want to cut one of the current backs by week 4, which is pretty unlikely.

 
az_prof said:
Right Tampa is on hook for 2017 as I see it
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They are not, due to his suspension - it voided his guranteed money. So that's just another reason why it's difficult to believe they think Martin is old and can't be effective. They could have cleared his $8MM off the books but decided to keep him instead. He will surely be given a chance once he's back and since his 2018 contract is no longer guaranteed either, he'll be motivated.

 
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maf005 said:
I prefer to rate players by statistics you can actually measure, rather than judging based on what i think i saw over a 5 game sample. 
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Didn't Martin put up better statistics at Boise State (didn't look it up so maybe not) and have similar metrics? You said McNichols.is likely better than him - which was odd since he was a first round NFL pick versus a fifth round pick.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Didn't Martin put up better statistics at Boise State (didn't look it up so maybe not) and have similar metrics? You said McNichols.is likely better than him - which was odd since he was a first round NFL pick versus a fifth round pick.
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Martin was really productive at Boise, yes. And had a better athletic profile than McNichols coming out of college. BUT, we can't ignore his professional resume. He's been pretty bad for a while now. 

 
maf005 said:
Martin was really productive at Boise, yes. And had a better athletic profile than McNichols coming out of college. BUT, we can't ignore his professional resume. He's been pretty bad for a while now. 
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How far back does "a while now" go? In 2015 he ran for 1,402 yards at 4.9 ypc and added another 271 yards through the air. He was bad last season but only played in 8 games.

In his only two healthy seasons he rushed for more than 1,400 yards each time. If McNichols ever does that, I'd be a little surprised to be honest. It would be a hell of a 4th round rookie pick for me though if he even does it once.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
How far back does "a while now" go? In 2015 he ran for 1,402 yards at 4.9 ypc and added another 271 yards through the air. He was bad last season but only played in 8 games.

In his only two healthy seasons he rushed for more than 1,400 yards each time. If McNichols ever does that, I'd be a little surprised to be honest. It would be a hell of a 4th round rookie pick for me though if he even does it once.
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I remembered his two good seasons being his first two. My mistake. I guess Martin has more of a chance at being useful than I originally assumed. 

Man his yearly stat lines are crazy/inconsistent. Two good years sandwiching two dreadful years, capped off by his worst year as a pro then failing a PED test. 

 
az_prof said:
A fifth round pick is not guaranteed to make at team but I don't see why you think Barber is a better prospect. He had a horrendous 40 time and went undrafted.  He didn't do anything last year despite opportunity to distinguish himself.  McNichols offers catching ability like a wide receiver but in a running back's body; I don't see that same versatility from Barber.
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One could make the argument that McNichols holds more value as a replacement for Sims than a 3 down back taking over for Sims and Martin. 

One of the biggest negatives on McNichols is he's not a between the tackle kind of runner. You haven't addressed this major flaw in your selling of McNichols (can we just change this thread title to what it should be- The Official McNichols thread??) 

Sims is an UDFA after this season. It's very possible that McNichols was drafted to take the place of Sims as the primary receiving back in 2018 and beyond. I think that's way more realistic than he is going to be the savior for my fantasy team this year taking over for the "terribly ancient and broken down" Martin, or ineffective Quiz/Sims and be a huge surprise rookie 3 down back. Sims got hurt last year and that was a huge problem for that offense because they did not have a receiving back like Sims. Quiz was okay but he's no Sims. 

I think it's worth talking about McNichols, but we have to be realistic. I like that you like him and that you have a lot of nice information about his measurables. It's someone I will definitely keep an eye on, especially if Sims gets hurt. 

 
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maf005 said:
I prefer to rate players by statistics you can actually measure, rather than judging based on what i think i saw over a 5 game sample. 
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You asked whats not to like. My answer is I don't like what I see when watching him. He goes down way too easy and you do not see him creating much on his own in any of these games. He gets what is blocked if it is there, but he runs with poor pad level and rarely breaks tackles. He runs into the back of his blockers, when he does make a guy miss he rarely is able to do much after it before another defender is there to tackle him. Two of his better runs come off of jet sweeps. I don't see his game translating very well to the next level.

In fairness on the positive side he does do a pretty good job with pass protection and he is a good receiver, very similar to Charles Sims in his skill set imho.

If you don't want to know what people do not like about him and this was just a rhetorical question, that's fine. I answered it anyways and pointed out a resource where if you watched, might lead to similar observations.

I mostly compared him to Jay Ajayi because of the same school. He is worse than Jay in pretty much every way although similarly talented as a receiver. 

 
RBBC until Martin returns, then Martin and his 3.1 YPC for the rest of the season.

Sometimes, the most obvious answer is the correct answer.

 
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As a Tampa fan I have a very good feel for this backfield. Last year, I predicted that Quizz would take over and Sims would be trash. That's not because I'm smart - it's just that the national media/analysts don't read much local media.

1. Martin is clearly the most talented back on the roster and will be RB1 when he gets back. It's hard to say how valuable that is as the Bucs OL has looked very suspect in the preseason and Martin is a real yo-yo player. I don't think he'll return to 2015 but he should be a solid fantasy RB2. 

2. Quizz will take over RB1 duties in the meantime. Koetter likes him (worked together in Atlanta) and he had some success starting last year. But he's small and clearly not able to handle a ton of carries.

3. His direct backup is Peyton Barber, who is an UDFA and is a JAG. It's possible that they split carries. The Bucs do like Barber though. 

4. Sims is not a good RB, going back to his college days he goes down with the lightest touch. He'll make a great play here or there, but these all occur in open space and makes far more boneheaded plays. He also can't read holes to save his life. My one caveat is that Sims is young and perhaps he radically changed as a player since 2016 (unlikely). But he will be the receiving back and will get touches no matter who the starting RB is. Think of him more as a gadget player. 

 
Grahamburn said:
Barber carved out a bit more of a role yesterday. 
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Maybe, but the Bucs were obviously destroying the Bears and I wonder if they were just spelling Jacquizz with such a big lead.

If Rodgers runs well the next few weeks, is it a given that Martin resumes his role as the workhorse?

 
zamboni said:
Maybe, but the Bucs were obviously destroying the Bears and I wonder if they were just spelling Jacquizz with such a big lead.

If Rodgers runs well the next few weeks, is it a given that Martin resumes his role as the workhorse?
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Martin is clearly the #1 guy.  I don't think his job is in jeopardy and this offense may go through the roof when he returns.  They may have been spelling Quizz yesterday, but Barber looked pretty good with his opportunities in an obvious running situation.  Sims lost a fumble and got blown up on a 3rd and 1 play.  Bad play calling to use him in that situation in the first place, but he didn't get the job done regardless. 

 
i recall barber getting most of the work at the start of a series late in the 3rd qtr, but after the qtr break, rodgers was back out there. would be nice to have seen him get more passing work but 15-20 carries a game on a good offense gives you a rb2 floor which is nice to have for the next 2 games

 
Grahamburn said:
Martin is clearly the #1 guy.  I don't think his job is in jeopardy and this offense may go through the roof when he returns. 
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Just to add to this, if you were able to watch Hard Knocks on HBO this year with the Bucs, it was also clear that Doug is the guy.  Not sure what episode it was but all the "star" players went out to a dinner to shoot the #### and discuss football, Jameis, Evans, Gerald Mccoy, Chris Baker, Brent Grimes and  Doug Martin.

Some may argue that doesn't mean jack, but it seems to me this is Doug's backfield when he returns

 
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No question it's Martins backfield. 

Jaquizz did what I needed him to do at the weekend. As a general rule, I love taking RBs in the last rounds, that are giving you guaranteed volume to kick off the season, due to suspension or injury. Particularly if you've gone WR heavy early on in the draft. Gives you an RB1/2 whilst you try to work the wire for some gold. Worked with Deangelo Williams last year . 

Hopefully two more weeks of the same, or maybe even more fantasy points if the Bucs aren't blowing their oppo out.

i actually drafted Martin and Jaquizz of all three of my leagues this year, so watching intently  

 
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