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Return of the Mack...Marlon Mack, RB, Indy

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14 hours ago, Forestbull said:

I believe he is a good rb you said he was just a guy. 

 

14 hours ago, Milkman said:

Waldman and Milkman think he's just ok. Forestbull thinks he's elite...….ummmmm LOL Forestbull. 

Not a good look after you just played the reading comprehension card.

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29 minutes ago, davearm said:

 

Not a good look after you just played the reading comprehension card.

Dave's feeling are hurt too obviously. Sorry guys Mack is unlikely to be your stud RB for the next 2-3 years. He is in a great spot for the stretch run. Lets hope he stays healthy. 

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1 hour ago, davearm said:

 

Not a good look after you just played the reading comprehension card.

Lol yeah I'm done with that guy, he acts like a child. But anyways I always thought Mack was legit, it was the injuries and vision that held him back. 

That being said, I dont believe he is elite (Gurley, Barkley, Kamara, Gordon, 2016 DJ) but I would not be surprised if he ends up an rb1 the 2nd half of the season. The Colts O line has been crushing it and Mack's vision has greatly improved. Also, Mack had a few drops the last couple of weeks, so he needs to clean that up but excited for him nonetheless.

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53 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Dave's feeling are hurt too obviously. Sorry guys Mack is unlikely to be your stud RB for the next 2-3 years. He is in a great spot for the stretch run. Lets hope he stays healthy. 

Sadly I don't own Mack, so I'm just a bystander here.

I do love unintended irony though.  Yours was fantastic.

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2 hours ago, davearm said:

Sadly I don't own Mack, so I'm just a bystander here.

I do love unintended irony though.  Yours was fantastic.

You must be feeling sad grasping at straws like that. Hugs. 

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3 hours ago, Forestbull said:

Lol yeah I'm done with that guy, he acts like a child. But anyways I always thought Mack was legit, it was the injuries and vision that held him back. 

That being said, I dont believe he is elite (Gurley, Barkley, Kamara, Gordon, 2016 DJ) but I would not be surprised if he ends up an rb1 the 2nd half of the season. The Colts O line has been crushing it and Mack's vision has greatly improved. Also, Mack had a few drops the last couple of weeks, so he needs to clean that up but excited for him nonetheless.

Yeah just put me on ignore and we both win. Yay!

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On 10/29/2018 at 7:51 AM, FreshiZ said:

So Milkman pimps this guy out as in a good situation but not some great RB or anything but advised to pick him up/trade for him/whatever. Said RB crushes the box score for 2 weeks and he's good I told you so is your comeback?

Nice burn dude

 

Sorry for my temporary lack of judgement. All efforts should be taken to troll Milkman, not discourage the activity!!

Won't happen again

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Marlon Mack (foot) was limited at Wednesday's practice.

It's a little concerning to see Mack limited coming off last week's bye, though his foot injury doesn't appear to be serious. Mack has been dominant when healthy this year, especially over his last three games (6.19 yards per carry, four touchdowns). The second-year USF alum will be a borderline RB1 if he suits up against Jacksonville in Week 10.

Source: Indianapolis Colts on Twitter 

Nov 7 - 5:46 PM

 

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16 minutes ago, The Finist said:

Will he be cleared?  And if he is, can you trust him vs the Jags this week?

I am pretty sure I already saw that he was out this week against Jags.

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5 minutes ago, packer_junkie said:

Full practice yesterday seems like he will be cleared-- Tough decision here for most. Debating him vs Flex guys like Corey Davis & DJ Moore 

I'm not liking his matchup this week.

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23 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I am pretty sure I already saw that he was out this week against Jags.

Pretty sure you are wrong

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 Marlon Mack (concussion) returned to a full practice on Thursday, suggesting he’s on track for Week 13 clearance. Even as Jacksonville has done well to limit yards per carry, hot-seat DC Todd Wash’s unit got stomped for 125-plus rushing yards in five of its last seven games and has given up nine rushing TDs during its seven-game losing streak. With 17-plus touches in four of his last five games, Mack is a volume-based RB2 with big-play ability on a high-scoring offense facing an overrated defense. Nyheim Hines remains Mack’s change-of-pace complement with 23 combined touches since the Colts’ Week 9 bye. Jordan Wilkins has only eight touches in that span and lost a first-half fumble last week. 

 

Evan Silva Rotoworld

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Marlon Mack - RB -  Colts

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Marlon Mack (concussion) is expected to play Week 13 against the Jaguars.

Mack always looked on track to play after getting in a full practice Thursday. He struggled his last time out against the Jaguars, gaining just 29 yards on 12 carries, but script should work in his favor in this spot, making him a volume-based RB2.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Dec 1 - 11:49 PM

 

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Assuming by the lack of activity in here, not a single one of us started him for those 140 yards and 2 TDs last week?

Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.

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5 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Assuming by the lack of activity in here, not a single one of us started him for those 140 yards and 2 TDs last week?

Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.

I just did the exact thing this morning.  Benching Fournette for Mack.

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13 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Assuming by the lack of activity in here, not a single one of us started him for those 140 yards and 2 TDs last week?

Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.

Yes I did. Other option was Drake. 

Expected a decent game, but certainly not that. 

I'm riding him this week as well. Indy is fighting for a spot. 

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37 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Assuming by the lack of activity in here, not a single one of us started him for those 140 yards and 2 TDs last week?

Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.

I started him.  He helped me dominate my 11th place matchup...:bag:

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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Assuming by the lack of activity in here, not a single one of us started him for those 140 yards and 2 TDs last week?

Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.

No, I've been using Mack since Conner went down. Very nice fill-in week to say the least.

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Mack is a tough one to figure out so far.  His success seems tied to the health of Indy's offensive line so far.  There have been some games when his usage or lack thereof felt match-up based, but hard to isolate since they haven't had the entire line in place until this past game.  The other interesting factor is the continued development of the Colts defense (!!!) that is siphoning some traditional Andrew Luck points to Mack and/or whoever the RB is.

Not sure where to value Mack moving forward...RB2 with upside assuming the line is healthy?  Don't have a lot of confidence in him yet, but I don't want to dump early on a young player (keeper purposes - forgive the assistant coach intrusion).

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3 hours ago, Doug B said:

No, I've been using Mack since Conner went down. Very nice fill-in week to say the least.

I have too.  And its a great matchup versus the Giants.  I'm not sure I can take him out if Conner returns given the matchups.

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So after Kareem Hunt got himself kicked out of the league Mack became my #1 RB by default. Going into the season it felt like he was a place holder, until they addressed the position down the road. Have the last 10-12 games bought him some safety as the Colts #1 RB for next season or does it feel like they need to pick up serious competition for him?  He's looked pretty good (top 5 in rushing over that period?) but It still feels like it's more of the offensive line than him.

Edited by mcd

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24 minutes ago, mcd said:

So after Kareem Hunt got himself kicked out of the league Mack became my #1 RB by default. Going into the season it felt like he was a place holder, until they addressed the position down the road. Have the last 10-12 games bought him some safety as the Colts #1 RB for next season or does it feel like they need to pick up serious competition for him?  He's looked pretty good (top 5 in rushing over that period?) but It still feels like it's more of the offensive line than him.

Hard to say. I originally thought they would bring in some competition then after his game yesterday I’m on the fence. We’ll see how he performs next week. So far he’s given them no reason to bring in competition.

Tex

 

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Include his playoff game, his 16 game projection would be around 1450 YFS/13.5 TD’s...

With Hines/Wilkins to compliment, I’d think they feel good here.  Plus, if it is the OL...then they’re set anyway.

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36 minutes ago, mcd said:

So after Kareem Hunt got himself kicked out of the league Mack became my #1 RB by default. Going into the season it felt like he was a place holder, until they addressed the position down the road. Have the last 10-12 games bought him some safety as the Colts #1 RB for next season or does it feel like they need to pick up serious competition for him?  He's looked pretty good (top 5 in rushing over that period?) but It still feels like it's more of the offensive line than him.

As a Colt fan this is a product of the o line being elite and Mack being an above average rusher.  I don't believe the Colts would feel the need to go after a RB in the draft or FA.  Ballard seems miles ahead of the last GM and makes picks that make sense.

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I concur that the Colts' offensive line deserves much of the credit here.  Certainly hard with the naked eye to separate out what Mack is doing versus the line, but from the naked eye, it does seem like Mack's vision has improved, in that he's hitting running lanes quicker.  He seems to lack the breakaway speed to ever be a top real-life RB, but he also has displayed some ability to make people miss in the open field.

I was interested to see that Football Outsiders ranks Mack 4th among all RB by their DYAR stat and 9th by DVOA.  The naked eye test wouldn't have told me that (whatever THAT may actually mean - I'll stop being vague now).

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

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26 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

I concur that the Colts' offensive line deserves much of the credit here.  Certainly hard with the naked eye to separate out what Mack is doing versus the line, but from the naked eye, it does seem like Mack's vision has improved, in that he's hitting running lanes quicker.  He seems to lack the breakaway speed to ever be a top real-life RB, but he also has displayed some ability to make people miss in the open field.

I was interested to see that Football Outsiders ranks Mack 4th among all RB by their DYAR stat and 9th by DVOA.  The naked eye test wouldn't have told me that (whatever THAT may actually mean - I'll stop being vague now).

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

I think DVOA/DYAR rewards 'big play' ability, so guys like Mack will rank higher, but Chubb will be #1 on PFF yet #18 on FO. They also differently rate quality of defense for opponent, run blocking, etc.

It should be interesting to see how Mack does outdoors against one of the worst run blocking units in the Chiefs.

Edited by pbandy1

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On 1/6/2019 at 3:03 PM, smbkrypt24 said:

As a Colt fan this is a product of the o line being elite and Mack being an above average rusher.  I don't believe the Colts would feel the need to go after a RB in the draft or FA.  Ballard seems miles ahead of the last GM and makes picks that make sense.

Mack is 3rd in yds after contact. I think people underrate him far too often. 

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4 hours ago, Forestbull said:

Mack is 3rd in yds after contact. I think people underrate him far too often. 

How is the stat measured?  total yards after contact or per contact average?

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On 1/6/2019 at 11:16 PM, pbandy1 said:

I think DVOA/DYAR rewards 'big play' ability, so guys like Mack will rank higher, but Chubb will be #1 on PFF yet #18 on FO. They also differently rate quality of defense for opponent, run blocking, etc.

It should be interesting to see how Mack does outdoors against one of the worst run blocking units in the Chiefs.

According to FBO

Quote

DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play.

I think it is pretty clear just looking at the lists that good play over a small sample size leads to a larger DVOA

Todd gurley is number one followed by Derrick Henry who is two on 215 rushing attempts. The next 7 players are all under 200 rushing attempts.

It seems pretty clear to me that just like the stat ypc with increased volume efficiency goes down, while a player with lower volume benefits more from big plays for their average value per play.

The thing I like most about FBO stats for RB is the success rate which takes into consideration down and distance which they call success rate. I think this is a fair way to compare the players as it eliminates the extra yards on big plays and just fairly compares how often every RB had successful runs for the down and distance. This also evens things out for players who are used in short yardage situations more often. 

Marlon Mack had a 54% success rate this season, which was 8th best in the league.

I think the offensive line and having Luck back for defenses to worry about helps Mack tremendously, but converting 54% of his runs shows improvement in Mack compared to what I saw from him in college.

Edited by Biabreakable

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

According to FBO

I think it is pretty clear just looking at the lists that good play over a small sample size leads to a larger DVOA

Todd gurley is number one followed by Derrick Henry who is two on 215 rushing attempts. The next 7 players are all under 200 rushing attempts.

It seems pretty clear to me that just like the stat ypc with increased volume efficiency goes down, while a player with lower volume benefits more from big plays for their average value per play.

The thing I like most about FBO stats for RB is the success rate which takes into consideration down and distance which they call success rate. I think this is a fair way to compare the players as it eliminates the extra yards on big plays and just fairly compares how often every RB had successful runs for the down and distance. This also evens things out for players who are used in short yardage situations more often. 

Marlon Mack had a 54% success rate this season, which was 8th best in the league.

I think the offensive line and having Luck back for defenses to worry about helps Mack tremendously, but converting 54% of his runs shows improvement in Mack compared to what I saw from him in college.

Thanks for the analysis.  I didn't see a lot of Mack on TV this year, but what I did see, he seemed like a more decisive runner than his rookie year.  I'm not really sure how good he is in a vacuum as an RB, but I'm pretty confident in him as a solid RB2 from a fantasy perspective with Luck and that offensive line.

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6 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

Thanks for the analysis.  I didn't see a lot of Mack on TV this year, but what I did see, he seemed like a more decisive runner than his rookie year.  I'm not really sure how good he is in a vacuum as an RB, but I'm pretty confident in him as a solid RB2 from a fantasy perspective with Luck and that offensive line.

I didn't get to see him much this year either. So I am still somewhat working with what I saw of him at the college level.

Just using FBO stats from last year however, Mack is way way down their list. He didn't have 100 rushing attempts, so he didn't qualify for the first list, so I don't see success rate for him listed there, but it had to be much worse, as his DVOA was -6.9% last season. 73 RB were ranked ahead of Mack last season and some of them were guys like Chris SIms. That is the Marlon Mack I saw in college. 

He changed.

Edited by Biabreakable

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35 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think the offensive line and having Luck back for defenses to worry about helps Mack tremendously, but converting 54% of his runs shows improvement in Mack compared to what I saw from him in college.

Mack bounced a lot of runs outside last year and he did that in college as well. He was much better at taking the run inside when needed this year. I really love watching him play,  his hips are like he's on a swivel. I wish he caught more passes, I always thought he was pretty decent at that.

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6 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

Mack bounced a lot of runs outside last year and he did that in college as well. He was much better at taking the run inside when needed this year. I really love watching him play,  his hips are like he's on a swivel. I wish he caught more passes, I always thought he was pretty decent at that.

He does have great change of direction ability.

Watching him play was somewhat Jeckyll and Hyde for me. On some plays he would look excellent, like a really special RB, on other plays he would look really bad, like not going to make it as a starter if he keeps doing that bad.

 

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