Ajayi being brought in for a workout wouldn't concern me much at all about Mack's value, nor would it cause any hesitation in me trying to acquire him. If they do sign him, I'd wager it's not much more than a depth move given Mack's injury concerns.
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Marlon Mack, RB, DEN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ShamrockPride
- Start date
cloppbeast
Footballguy
The shiny new toy always has more talent in the SP. I'm not saying Mack is no good, but Ajayi is 3 years removed from a better season. He's still only 25 years old. They're pretty comparable.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Mack was solid last year after returning from his injury. I agree that Mack will be the workhouse back with Ajayi being the 3rd down/COP back.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
don't trust him long term in dyno, but he is value in re-draft
The one thing that concerns me about Mack is that even though everyone is assuming he's their full-time back now (and admittedly the Colts have said similar), he was barely used in the passing game last year, especially towards the end of the season. He didn't have more than 2 receptions in any game last year and he only had 3 in his last 4 games (I'm not counting week 17 for fantasy purposes).
He had 3 catches for -1 yards in week 17 and 2 catches for 6 yards and zero catches in the two playoff games respectively. Apart from the last game where he had only 9 carries and the Colts were dominated by the Chiefs, he was still getting 20+ carries so that's positive. I'm sure they view him as their clear starter and on the Colts that has a fair bit of value - he had a handful of massive games with TDs so there is definitely upside there - but the lack of a consistent receiving floor makes me a bit nervous.
He had 3 catches for -1 yards in week 17 and 2 catches for 6 yards and zero catches in the two playoff games respectively. Apart from the last game where he had only 9 carries and the Colts were dominated by the Chiefs, he was still getting 20+ carries so that's positive. I'm sure they view him as their clear starter and on the Colts that has a fair bit of value - he had a handful of massive games with TDs so there is definitely upside there - but the lack of a consistent receiving floor makes me a bit nervous.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
His draft position should be at most high RB2, for the reasons you've outlined. Mack will have 25 point games and 5 point games, I think we can say that with some confidence.
The one mitigating factor is that the Colts offense is top tier, generating a healthy amount of goal line carries for Mack to save the low weeks. That was the story last year.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I feel like he's on most people's list as a guy who they want because they don't think he'll cost too much but because of his position, potential, and the fact that most people seem to have the same feelings on him, I don't know how much of a bargain he will be.
Mack's got good hands and is a capable pass catcher, we just don't know if the Colts are going to completely commit to him as a three down back, especially with an above average pass-catching back on the roster in Hines. I would expect his targets to increase, but not by a substantial amount. But if he can remain healthy on this potent offense, I'd be shocked if he's not an RB1 this season.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This is the conventional wisdom, but I noticed when doing my projection Hines had 5.2 yards/target. That's bad even for a RB. He's fast but not very nifty, good for a big play but not for moving chains. I'm not saying the Colts won't pass to Hines this year but he might not be a long term answer.
I would 100% disagree with the bolded. Mack's a pretty awful receiver, and blocker. I'd be shocked if he was a 3-down RB, especially since they have 3 guys who are better in the passing game at RB than Mack is. Hines and Ware are both much better, and Wilkins(though equally poor as a receiver) is a good pass blocker.
I've got Mack in the mid-RB2 range. He's the best rusher on the team, and he's shown upside for 20+ point games, but his floor is pretty low in my eyes. I could see this becoming an Eagles-like RBBC if Mack doesn't start as hot as he finished last year. Hines will have a role, and Ware has been solid whenever he's been healthy throughout his career.
Where are you getting this from? Because he was under-utilized in this role last year? He had 20+ receptions two out of his three years in college, and from what I've seen from him catching the ball in the NFL he seems pretty natural to me.
I know pass protection was a concern in 2017 when he came into the league(which is it for many rookies) but I don't recall it being a huge issue for him last season. Do you have any stats to back up him being a horrible blocker?
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Hard to believe this would be the case considering this running attack was positively stagnant with Wilkins and Hines heading it at the beginning of the season. Mack energized it from the moment he returned.
Mack had the lowest PFF grade in 2018 in both receiving and blocking, and by a pretty wide margin. Only Carlos Hyde was even close to as bad, though Mack is obviously a better player than Hyde. Its not a small sample size either, as Mack ran 228 routes last year. Which to me means he wasn't underused, but wasn't completely trusted, or wasn't getting open.
I think Luck proving he could throw the deep ball is what energized the run game most. Also, Mack came back at the same time TY Hilton did, which meant the running game faced less pressure. I'm not saying Mack isn't a solid runner, he is, but he's not light years better than the other guys. Jordan Wilkins averaged almost a full yard more per carry, he was an effective rusher, he just had a fumbling issue early in the year, which very well could be fixed now.
The o-line improved as the year went on as well, especially once Kelly got healthy. With the exception of the wildcard game against Houston, almost every game where Mack had success, the other RB's had higher YPC than Mack did, just less work. Maybe they feel Mack is a much better player, maybe they didn't want to put too much on the rookie's plate, and maybe they didn't want to fix what wasn't broken, but my point is, Mack may or may not be the best RB on the team, and I have enough concern about it becoming a RBBC, that Mack will likely be around RB20 for me.
Not doubting you, but I can't find those stats anywhere. Can you provide a link?
TY only missed weeks 5 and 6. Mack was out the first 5 weeks. Mack was one of just four backs last season to rush for 115 or more yards on four different occasions, and he missed 5 games. Without Mack, the Colts never hit 100 yards rushing, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Including the playoffs, Mack averaged 4.8.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I think these numbers need some context, though.
Wilkins was the lead back for the first four games (he split carries with Mack, 10 each, in the second game). In game 5, Hines had 15 carries to Wilkins' 6. Mack assumed the lead role in game 6.
Through the first four games, Wilkins averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Adding in game 5, where in fairness he was the COP back, but at least Mack wasn't there, the 5-game average rises to 3.98 YPC.
For the remaining 11 games, Wilkins had a carry in only 5 of them, for a total of 16 carries. In those five games, he averaged 10 YPC. This COP work is pretty clearly raising his overall YPC for the season in a way that is skewing the overall context.
In the context of regular lead-back work, Mack's 4.7 YPC is pretty telling compared to 3.5.
Things change, coaches have opinions we don't know about. Can't dispute any of that. Rookies take a while to phase in. I certainly agree Mack has degrees of uncertainty, but I don't think the evidence we have suggests a takeover from another back at this point.
The Finist
Footballguy
The OL should only get better from here. The offense should be humming all season this year now that Luck has knocked the rust off. Now Marlon just needs to stay healthy. Big year coming if so.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Doesnt hines coming in on 3rd down/passing situations limit macks upside? Reich is going to use hines alot.
The Finist
Footballguy
Yes, anytime another player comes in for another player it limits the upside of the previous player. Hopefully it will not be alot. However that term is pretty ambiguous used in this context. We will likely see Hines cipher off 4 carries and 3 catches per/gm froma healthy Mack by my estimations.
nightmare
Footballguy
In PPR leagues M Mack averaged 13.4 points a game with Hines doing his thing. I think he is the new M Ingram,
not much respect but keeps churning out the points. An ADP of RB16-RB22 but finishes as RB 10-RB13.
N Hines averaged 9.25 touches last year, that might go up with the offense on the field more but not at the
expense of Mack. M Mack averaged 13.25 touches, I don't think that ratio changes..
It really wasn't that close. Mack missed games 1, 3-5. If you just look at the games they played in together (week 2, 6-16), Mack averaged 17.6 touches to Hines 7.5.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not thinking about rankings or opponents, who would you put in your starting lineup over Mack from this list?
Aaron Jones
Damian Williams
Mark Ingram
Derrick Henry
Aaron Jones
Damian Williams
Mark Ingram
Derrick Henry
nightmare
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Williams and maybe Jones...assuming they've been named the starters. But we are getting into play the best matchup territory.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
nightmare
Footballguy
If D Williams is the starter-D Williams
Last year in PPR( per game average) he outscored D Henry.
A Jones scored 1 more point per game and M Ingram in N.O scored about the same, except for 2017.
Right now, A Jones and D Williams, but not by much
Last year in PPR( per game average) he outscored D Henry.
A Jones scored 1 more point per game and M Ingram in N.O scored about the same, except for 2017.
Right now, A Jones and D Williams, but not by much
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think if healthy hes a solid two down back....seems a bit over valued in dynasty....granted he is only 23...his redraft value seems about right but in ppr league i have to doc him
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I think that's fair.
Yeah I know it's impossible without knowing the matchups, and yes I'm assuming all those guys are starting. Mostly I just wanted the white dot and didn't have much to say. I own all those guys on one squad in particular and am going to have a ##### of a time choosing two each week. Good problem to have but those guys are all going around the same spot in bestballs and seem to genuinely be pretty equal in terms of value.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
By the end of preseason I imagine Jacobs, Montgomery and Sanders are in the same conversation too. And I left out KJ, who others are talking about here. Is there anything in particular that sets Mack apart from all these guys? I don't really think so. For me it's the Indy offense. But KC and GB get the same nod of approval.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I am a biased colts fan though and am really excited about the Colts OL. I think it could be the best run blocking OL in the league. Excited for Mack this year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah and if that is true then it is a strong tiebreaker. I'd have to look again but I think Indy has a favorable fantasy playoff schedule, if that means anything. It was enough to make me move Luck ahead of Rodgers for 2019.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Indy wks 14 to 16 @Tampa @New Orleans and home to Carolina. Seems to me like those could all be really high scoring games. Yeah I know it is June but still.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Henry is the one that I wouldn't move for any of them. I still say his upside is the highest. If he really does get fed like a workhorse this year, as is expected, then we will finally know for sure what we have with him. I don't think the other guys can take over a game the way Henry can (if he gets fed). The others all offer a lot, too, though. And I like the Tennessee offense the least out of all of them. But Henry is the one I would expect to get the biggest return for in a trade, even though I'll never see it.
Not necessarily going to get many receptions out of Henry or Mack, so there is an argument for the other guys there, but when Mack or Henry do get receptions they have a knack for breaking big gains.
nightmare
Footballguy
For this season, Jacobs, Montgomery and Sanders aren't. They are the top picks in rookie drafts because of situation, not talent.
They COULD be as good as M Mack, but right now M Mack is a solid RB2 with upside. KJ is in an offense that could be going in the wrong direction.
I agree that it is Indy's offense that makes Mack better or equal to the others.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't disagree, but if the volume is there, then they would seem to be in the discussion for who would you start, or who would you draft in a redraft or bestball. By the end of the preseason we should have a good idea of where those 3 rookies sit in their teams pecking order. But you could be right, they may not be there yet.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Jones damian and ingram all have a chance to be bellcows....henry and mack are two down players...
barackdhouse
Footballguy
What other RBs are in the Baltimore RBBC? Dixon? Edwards? Hill? I don't see any of those guys eating into meaningful snaps from Ingram this year. They're a run first team. They brought him in to be the lead back.
nightmare
Footballguy
Edwards 100 attempts, Ingram 200. If I'm wrong, It's more like Ingram gets 230 attempts.
That 200/100 split is the lower side of a RBBC
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
There will be no rbbc in baltimore...now lamar stealing goalline carries is possible...but i think ingram well get career high in touches n catches
nightmare
Footballguy
Yes, A JAG He is. Their is nothing special about B Barber, M Davis, CJ Anderson, L Murray, C Hyde
or J McKinnon and they are all going to get 80-100+ carries.
M Davis could still be the starter.
