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Return of the Mack...Marlon Mack, RB, Indy

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As a rookie, Mack was exactly the boom or bust runner he was in college. Mack was above league average in rate of runs to go for 10 or more yards (11.8 percent), but 32.6 percent of his carries failed to gain any yardage, the highest rate of running backs with 75 or more carries on the season. For a teammate comparison, Frank Gore only failed to gain positive yardage on 16.5 percent of his rushing attempts last year. The Colts stayed away from the initial run of bigger named backs from this class despite having ample draft picks over the first three rounds, instead opting to select Nyheim Hines -arguably the best pass catching running back in this draft after Saquon Barkley - at pick 104 and Jordan Wilkins -who outperformed his collegiate rushing opportunity-  at pick 169. While those two players weren’t a Derrius Guice or even a Royce Freeman, they both carry similar draft capital to the 143rd overall selection used on Mack a year ago. This will be a backfield battle to monitor all summer long if they fail to add a veteran such as C.J. Anderson or DeMarco Murray as the Colts have built a potentially stout interior offensive line over the past two draft classes.

Arrow not point in Mack's favor at all.

12 hours ago, jabarony said:

I really wish the thread title would change.  Every time I glance at it, I get that terrible song in my head.

Bite your tongue, you heathen! :shock:

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The Indianapolis Star considers Marlon Mack the "frontrunner" to lead the Colts' backfield committee.

He is, but it's by default. Mack generated just 358 yards on 93 rookie carries (3.8 YPC). Inconsistent usage and terrible blocking played a part. Mack is capable of big plays, with six of his 2017 carries going for at least 20 yards. This summer he will be competing with rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines as well as veteran Robert Turbin.

Source: Indianapolis Star 

May 7 - 2:55 PM

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Mack is far from a superstar, and isn't a great RB1 or even clear-cut RB2, but hard to see how he can't add value to an FF squad as a low-end RB2/flex with upside.

Colts bolstered their line significntly, and as far as Mack's competition goes, Wilkins looks like a finesse/COP back who despite his size, doesn't have speed or ability to move piles, and Hines also seems like an all-purpose smaller back who is more of an athlete than prototypical RB.

This is not to say either Hines or Wilkins can shine, or that Mack won't get mired in a potential RBBC, but Mack seems the clear forerunner in terms of both skillset and experience to be a 2-down back, with upside given that the competition behind him doesn't seem compelling.

Colts may still sign an RB and things might change, but right now, Mack seems like later round value for my squad.

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You guys got that stupid song in my head

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and I don't even know if.  I just keep singing "The Mack, The Marlon Mack" to the tune of The Monster Mash.

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53 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Mack is far from a superstar, and isn't a great RB1 or even clear-cut RB2, but hard to see how he can't add value to an FF squad as a low-end RB2/flex with upside.

Colts bolstered their line significntly, and as far as Mack's competition goes, Wilkins looks like a finesse/COP back who despite his size, doesn't have speed or ability to move piles, and Hines also seems like an all-purpose smaller back who is more of an athlete than prototypical RB.

This is not to say either Hines or Wilkins can shine, or that Mack won't get mired in a potential RBBC, but Mack seems the clear forerunner in terms of both skillset and experience to be a 2-down back, with upside given that the competition behind him doesn't seem compelling.

Colts may still sign an RB and things might change, but right now, Mack seems like later round value for my squad.

good analysis and I think you might be undervaluing Mack.  maybe wishful thinking as a Mack owner but I don't see Hines/Wilkins cutting into carries and Mack should be able to catch the ball out of the backfield

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10 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

good analysis and I think you might be undervaluing Mack.  maybe wishful thinking as a Mack owner but I don't see Hines/Wilkins cutting into carries and Mack should be able to catch the ball out of the backfield

I may indeed be undervaluing Mack, and we all may be undervaluing what Hines/Wilkins can bring to the table on this team and at this level. Time will tell, as always.

I do think, given all info we have right now, we're aligned in thinking that the cow to have in this pasture right now is Mack, and I'll be looking to scoop him as a value play at the right ADP.

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1 hour ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Colts may still sign an RB and things might change, but right now, Mack seems like later round value for my squad.

What FA RB could the Colts sign that would change your rating of Mack? The only one out there imo is DeMarco Murray..... I just find it hard to believe IND would go in that direction. Or that Murray would be interested in playing for a team that far away from the playoffs.

I think Murray could help a lot of teams but IND seems like one of the destinations that makes the least amount of sense.

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19 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

What FA RB could the Colts sign that would change your rating of Mack? The only one out there imo is DeMarco Murray..... I just find it hard to believe IND would go in that direction. Or that Murray would be interested in playing for a team that far away from the playoffs.

I think Murray could help a lot of teams but IND seems like one of the destinations that makes the least amount of sense.

If luck is 100% they could contend for the playoffa easily....big if i know.....

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Hopefully Mack has improved from last year. You can't keep handing the ball to a guy that doesn't get past the line of scrimmage 33% of the time, it just sets up your offense in bad situations way too often. With Luck back and an improved o-line there's hope, I just can't imagine going into the season without someone who can fall forward for 2-3 yards on a consistent basis.

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2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

You guys got that stupid song in my head

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and I don't even know if.  I just keep singing "The Mack, The Marlon Mack" to the tune of The Monster Mash.

I like the song you made up for him better than the song the OP is referring to in the title.

Stick with your version.

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2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

You guys got that stupid song in my head

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and I don't even know if.  I just keep singing "The Mack, The Marlon Mack" to the tune of The Monster Mash.

Return of the Mack

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2 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

If luck is 100% they could contend for the playoffa easily....big if i know.....

Unless at least two other AFC South teams get hit by injuries I can't say I agree with that.

Luck was able to carry the entire franchise on his back.... in 2014. Until I see him play at that level again I'm not going to assume he'll get back to that level. Since then the franchise hasn't finished above .500 in a season(20-28). Las Vegas has them at 6.5 wins so it's not just me.

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2 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

What FA RB could the Colts sign that would change your rating of Mack? The only one out there imo is DeMarco Murray..... I just find it hard to believe IND would go in that direction. Or that Murray would be interested in playing for a team that far away from the playoffs.

I think Murray could help a lot of teams but IND seems like one of the destinations that makes the least amount of sense.

I think it's very unlikely the Colts sign Demarco Murray. Chris Ballard has said (multiple times this off season) that he wants to build through the draft and that bringing in high price veterans can stunt the development of their young players. I don't think Ballard would have used two mid round picks on RBs if he was interested in bringing in a free agent.

I would guess the Colts employ a RBBC at least early in the season until Mack, Hines, or Wilkins can separate themselves from the others.

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1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

Luck was able to carry the entire franchise on his back.... in 2014. Until I see him play at that level again I'm not going to assume he'll get back to that level. Since then the franchise hasn't finished above .500 in a season(20-28). Las Vegas has them at 6.5 wins so it's not just me.

Don’t forget that the 2 years prior, including the year he was drafted #1 overall, he also led them to the playoffs. Think about that, he led a team to the playoffs that was the worst team in the league in the previous year. He has the ability to do it. A new coach and a much improved offensive line and defense, they have a shot. Luck can have a shoot out with the the best of them if he gets back to form

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6 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

What FA RB could the Colts sign that would change your rating of Mack? The only one out there imo is DeMarco Murray..... I just find it hard to believe IND would go in that direction. Or that Murray would be interested in playing for a team that far away from the playoffs.

I think Murray could help a lot of teams but IND seems like one of the destinations that makes the least amount of sense.

Murray could still do better as a 2-down back than Mack (and honestly he's not in the position to really be picky about the teams he goes to). I could see them bring in Orleans Darkwa, Benny Cunningham, Andre Ellington, or Alfred Blue to mire Mack in a pure timeshare. Shane Vereen has a different skillset but him and a guy like Terrance West could also take carries away from Mack to the point where his fantasy value may not be worthwhile based on volume. Guys like Peterson and Lacy are still out there but I think they are washed.

Essentially, I think the Colts could and should kick the tires on a FA back, bring someone in to at least provide competition and some more relative depth, any of whom, if they still have gas in the tank could render Mack's value less than ideal.

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors

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4 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Murray could still do better as a 2-down back than Mack (and honestly he's not in the position to really be picky about the teams he goes to). I could see them bring in Orleans Darkwa, Benny Cunningham, Andre Ellington, or Alfred Blue to mire Mack in a pure timeshare. Shane Vereen has a different skillset but him and a guy like Terrance West could also take carries away from Mack to the point where his fantasy value may not be worthwhile based on volume. Guys like Peterson and Lacy are still out there but I think they are washed.

Essentially, I think the Colts could and should kick the tires on a FA back, bring someone in to at least provide competition and some more relative depth, any of whom, if they still have gas in the tank could render Mack's value less than ideal.

Blue re-signed with Houston and those other guys are journeyman bums. If they forced a timeshare it would mean Mack wasn't good enough to be the feature back anyway (which may be the case). Plus they do have a veteran back in Robert Turbin who is just as good/bad as any of the guys you mentioned. I doubt they add anyone else.

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39 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Blue re-signed with Houston and those other guys are journeyman bums. If they forced a timeshare it would mean Mack wasn't good enough to be the feature back anyway (which may be the case). Plus they do have a veteran back in Robert Turbin who is just as good/bad as any of the guys you mentioned. I doubt they add anyone else.

I think Murray would easily get the carries until he got hurt were he to sign. The rest are journeyman bums, but Murray still has enough left to siphon off early down carries. Nothing is pointing to Mack being the man anyway- they’ve alluded to splitting carries, with turbins name being mentioned in the same breath. If you can’t keep turbin on the bench, how good can you be? Like the oline additions and defensive additions but the rest of the offense hasn’t really stepped forward. Lucks health is unclear at this point, they added Ebron but not much at wr (dez, Marshall, maclin perhaps?), and Hines at rb. If I were a colts fan I’d be a little worried. Even if luck plays he won’t have a lot of weapons, and I don’t see a run game materializing from Mack, Hines, and turbin. These guys aren’t out of the offseason woods yet, but if they make it they will have little more than flex value imo. 

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I think Murray would easily get the carries until he got hurt were he to sign. The rest are journeyman bums, but Murray still has enough left to siphon off early down carries. Nothing is pointing to Mack being the man anyway- they’ve alluded to splitting carries, with turbins name being mentioned in the same breath. If you can’t keep turbin on the bench, how good can you be? Like the oline additions and defensive additions but the rest of the offense hasn’t really stepped forward. Lucks health is unclear at this point, they added Ebron but not much at wr (dez, Marshall, maclin perhaps?), and Hines at rb. If I were a colts fan I’d be a little worried. Even if luck plays he won’t have a lot of weapons, and I don’t see a run game materializing from Mack, Hines, and turbin. These guys aren’t out of the offseason woods yet, but if they make it they will have little more than flex value imo. 

I was talking about the guys he mentioned as depth not Murray - but I think Murray is on his last legs and I don't see a young rebuilding team like Indy signing him anyway.

I don't think we really know how this backfield will shape up yet and while Mack is the incumbent, since it was under a totally different coaching staff his experience doesn't really give him much of an advantage over Hines or Wilkins.

I agree that if Mack doesn't keep Turbin on the bench its the same thing as losing significant touches to Orleans Darkwa, Benny Cunningham and Andre Ellington - it would mean he's not good enough to be a feature back.

I do think Mack is the most complete back out of the current stable and I would expect him to lead the committee but he's far from proven and he still needs to change the way he carries the ball or turnovers will be an issue. In the league I do own him I also drafted Hines and Wilkins (who come relatively cheaply in rookie drafts) as all of a sudden - provided Luck is healthy this looks like a pretty good situation with the additions to the o-line. Honestly I don't think Jacoby Brissett is so bad and with gaining some experience and with his ability to rub the ball I still like whoever emerges in Indy even without Luck.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Blue re-signed with Houston and those other guys are journeyman bums. If they forced a timeshare it would mean Mack wasn't good enough to be the feature back anyway (which may be the case). Plus they do have a veteran back in Robert Turbin who is just as good/bad as any of the guys you mentioned. I doubt they add anyone else.

This is the point. Mack has talent, but hasn't proven to me he is a feature back as opposed to a committee back. He's only had one year in the league behind one of the most durable and consistent backs this era, so he may step up now that Gore has moved on. But from what I've seen Mack's game is more around slippery elusiveness and not the kind of north/south inside the tackles guy that is more a prototypical feature back.

While the other guys I mentioned are not stellar, at this point they are more proven than any of the other guys in the Colts' backfield right now, and I don't think I can say Mack's game is clearly head-and-shoulders above any of them to the point where it wouldn't be a full-blown committee if any of them sign.

We'll see -- Mack is certainly in the position to step up and take the job. If the Colts don't sign anyone else, I think the value is there.  

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18 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

You guys got that stupid song in my head

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and I don't even know if.  I just keep singing "The Mack, The Marlon Mack" to the tune of The Monster Mash.

How about

Ms Marlon Mack Mack Mack

The running back back back 

At least until til til

He gives up a sack sack sack

 

You’re all so high high high

He’s just a guy guy guy

He’ll lose the job job job

By mid July ly ly

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26 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

How about

Ms Marlon Mack Mack Mack

The running back back back 

At least until til til

He gives up a sack sack sack

 

You’re all so high high high

He’s just a guy guy guy

He’ll lose the job job job

By mid July ly ly

Hahahaha. Mack can only be discussed in song form.

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47 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

How about

Ms Marlon Mack Mack Mack

The running back back back 

At least until til til

He gives up a sack sack sack

 

You’re all so high high high

He’s just a guy guy guy

He’ll lose the job job job

By mid July ly ly

Watch out Marlon Mack Mack Mack

Behind your back back back

Cause on the lines lines lines

Is Nyheim Hines Hines Hines

 

If you can't block block block

And Luck gets sacked sacked sacked

Then Mack the Knife Knife Knife

Meet chopping block block block

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On 5/10/2018 at 7:03 AM, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Essentially, I think the Colts could and should kick the tires on a FA back, bring someone in to at least provide competition and some more relative depth, any of whom, if they still have gas in the tank could render Mack's value less than ideal.

Yeah, I think the is the crux of your argument: Mack and anybody with a pulse is going to split carries.

Most of the guys you mentioned will need an injury just to get a job in the NFL this season imo. Darkwa(assuming the surgery from two days ago goes well) is the lone name that you mentioned that  is still young, will be cheap..... I can see him maybe stealing carries but I disagree with most of the other players on the list. Anyone that can get 4.4y/c behind that train wreck OL in NY deserves a chance. Also saw that Tion Green got released by DET after getting caught up in a numbers game there. He showed a few flashes last season imo, again in an almost impossible situation to produce. Both were completely undrafted last year though so I would expect either to be on the roster bubble until the final cut down day.

But I also think the "north/south inside the tackles guy that is more a prototypical feature back" is a bit outdated. Maybe that still has a place on a team like JAX, but I have seen JAX and, despite all the folks that think IND is a playoff contender, this Colts team is no JAX. 

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24 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

Yeah, I think the is the crux of your argument: Mack and anybody with a pulse is going to split carries.

Most of the guys you mentioned will need an injury just to get a job in the NFL this season imo. Darkwa(assuming the surgery from two days ago goes well) is the lone name that you mentioned that  is still young, will be cheap..... I can see him maybe stealing carries but I disagree with most of the other players on the list. Anyone that can get 4.4y/c behind that train wreck OL in NY deserves a chance. Also saw that Tion Green got released by DET after getting caught up in a numbers game there. He showed a few flashes last season imo, again in an almost impossible situation to produce. Both were completely undrafted last year though so I would expect either to be on the roster bubble until the final cut down day.

But I also think the "north/south inside the tackles guy that is more a prototypical feature back" is a bit outdated. Maybe that still has a place on a team like JAX, but I have seen JAX and, despite all the folks that think IND is a playoff contender, this Colts team is no JAX. 

***Off-Topic****

Removing the defence for a second, Jax is setting up their offense nicely to have a back like Fournette. Lee, Chark and Westbrook all have a lot of speed. So if a team puts smaller corners on the field to keep up with them then those DBs have to pray that the front 7 gets to Fournette first. It’s kind of a fun offense.

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Quote

Marlon Mack (shoulder) has been cleared for the start of training camp.

Mack sat out OTAs while recovering from shoulder surgery but should see his usual reps when training camp opens next Thursday. The 22-year-old is the favorite to lead Indy's backfield committee this season, though he'll face competition from rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Power back Robert Turbin will join the fold when he returns from a four-game PED suspension.

Source: Zak Keefer on Twitter 

Jul 20 - 2:33 PM

 

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I'm pretty optimistic on Mack this year. Will probably amount to nothing but I like him as one of those guys you reach for a little early. Lots of pieces falling into place for Indy with Luck coming back and a, seemingly, improved o-line. Mack has a shot here.

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3 hours ago, Chaka said:

I'm pretty optimistic on Mack this year. Will probably amount to nothing but I like him as one of those guys you reach for a little early. Lots of pieces falling into place for Indy with Luck coming back and a, seemingly, improved o-line. Mack has a shot here.

With that ADP, what's not to like. I bet he rises a lot by late August. 

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32% of Macks runs as a rookie went for 0 or negative yards last year. Just backing up what we have seen of him at the college level as well.

I think he needs to fix that or Reich (and any other coach) is going to get sick of consistently being behind schedule producing 1st downs.

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4 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

What tool do you use to find that stat?

Using a magazine called  pro forecast fantasy football that I was reading while camping last week actually. I assume it is accurate but I cannot easily verify it with PFR splits or anything.

On the positive side of this Mack did have 6 runs of 20+ yards (6% of his runs) which tied for 11th with a bunch of other RB last year.

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Insider: Is Marlon Mack ready to become the Colts' lead back?

Excerpt:

Mack finished his rookie season second in the league in percentage of runs that went for no yards or less (32.2 percent). That’s one out of every three rushes that ended at or behind the line of scrimmage. Those are the strikeouts. The homers? He was tops in the NFL in 20-yard runs (5.4 percent of his total carries). There’s no doubt the fifth-round pick added an explosive layer to a unit that sorely needed it.

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32 NFL observations, Week 15

Excerpt:

Indianapolis Colts: Running back Marlon Mackhas been stopped for either no gain or negative yardage on 34.1 percent of his rushing attempts this year. This is the highest rate among all running backs with at least 75 carries this season.

Mack can be explosive with some long runs but on the flip side he had around a third of his carries last year that failed to generate positive yardage.

Mack had only one fumble last year; however, he had some issues with fumbles in college.

Marlon Mack combine profile on NFL.com

Excerpt:

Has a very poor fumble rate over this three years and has put the ball on the ground twelve times.

I like him and his outlook this year but there are some yellow flags to be aware of.

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I own him in a couple money leagues.  One league as my RB3 one as my RB4 and one as my RB2.  Not so excited for that RB2 one but I'm comfortable with him as a bye week guy for now.  

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7 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

32% of Macks runs as a rookie went for 0 or negative yards last year. Just backing up what we have seen of him at the college level as well.

I think he needs to fix that or Reich (and any other coach) is going to get sick of consistently being behind schedule producing 1st downs.

The offensive line in Indy last season was pretty terrible. And all props in the world to Brisset but he doesn't keep defenses honest the way a guy like Luck can.

Only point is there is not much similarity between the 2017 & 2018 Colts.

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I agree that the Colts offensive line has improved; however, as a comparison, Frank Gore only failed to gain positive yardage on 16.5 percent of his rushing attempts last year.

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21 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Using a magazine called  pro forecast fantasy football that I was reading while camping last week actually. I assume it is accurate but I cannot easily verify it with PFR splits or anything.

On the positive side of this Mack did have 6 runs of 20+ yards (6% of his runs) which tied for 11th with a bunch of other RB last year.

Interesting(and very old school).

Did they happen to list how many runs Mixon had for 0 or negative yards? I was just curious. To me those two guys aren't very far apart but FF drafters seem to disagree with me vehemently. I was just trying to find differentiating factors to explain why one guy is being so embraced by the FF community and the other is being relatively ignored.

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42 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

Interesting(and very old school).

Did they happen to list how many runs Mixon had for 0 or negative yards? I was just curious. To me those two guys aren't very far apart but FF drafters seem to disagree with me vehemently. I was just trying to find differentiating factors to explain why one guy is being so embraced by the FF community and the other is being relatively ignored.

1. Draft degree (Mixon)

2. Mixon played behind the 5th worst OL last year. This will be improved this year.

3. Competition: Mixon got a little over 60% share last year which should increase but Gio is not going anywhere.

4. Competition B: If the Colts have confidence in Mack then why did they draft not one but two running backs. There’s too much uncertainty for anyone to take that chance right now.

5. I own both so I hope they both produce at a high level but the arrow points to Mixon on both expectations and opportunities.

Tex

 

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1 hour ago, BigTex said:

1. Draft degree (Mixon)

2. Mixon played behind the 5th worst OL last year. This will be improved this year.

3. Competition: Mixon got a little over 60% share last year which should increase but Gio is not going anywhere.

4. Competition B: If the Colts have confidence in Mack then why did they draft not one but two running backs. There’s too much uncertainty for anyone to take that chance right now.

5. I own both so I hope they both produce at a high level but the arrow points to Mixon on both expectations and opportunities.

Tex

 

Not to nitpick, but the Bengals drafted a RB 8 picks after the colts selected there first RB in the draft.  Gio also is better than any RB on the colts roster, at least before the draft.

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6 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

Interesting(and very old school).

Did they happen to list how many runs Mixon had for 0 or negative yards? I was just curious. To me those two guys aren't very far apart but FF drafters seem to disagree with me vehemently. I was just trying to find differentiating factors to explain why one guy is being so embraced by the FF community and the other is being relatively ignored.

Yeah it is an interesting stat that I don't have complete data for to try to put this into context or historical context. It would be interesting I think to look at all the RB and how often they might gain 0 or less yards on their rushing attempts.

As the article states, 32% was the second worst in the league, (which makes me wonder who was worse than Mack) in 2017. Looking at the last 3-5 years of this would give it more context than this, but I think it is fair to say that 32% is in the bottom 10% or so of RB if we did look at a larger time frame.

I think a lot of coaches will bench a RB if they gain 0 or lose yards this frequently, so not many RB would get the chance to do worse than Mack as far as this goes. They wouldn't get the opportunity to do worse than this.

It is a stat that actually reflects what myself and others saw Mack doing with a high frequency. Trying to reverse field instead of putting his head down and taking 2-3 yards when the defense plays well instead of trying to create a big play by running against the play design.

That creativity and the big plays are something you want the RB to do to a certain degree and you do not want to coach that out of the player, however the losses and zero yard gains are something coaches want to limit. The two things are somewhat related. I am not sure how you coach Mack to get rid of the negative plays, but still keep the positive ones.

I don't really know of a comprehensive way to look at this for all RB.

On PFR you can get a list of the players total plays and then could count them to find the number of times Mixon did this. PFR does at least put the plays in order, the longest yards to the fewest.

Joe Mixon

I kind of knew this anyways, but the most frequent outcome of a rushing play is a RB gaining 2 or 3 yards.

For Joe Mixon I count 39 times he gained 0 or less yards last season. This was 21.9% of Mixons runs. So about 10% less frequently than Marlon Mack.

Edited by Biabreakable
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5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah it is an interesting stat that I don't have complete data for to try to put this into context or historical context. It would be interesting I think to look at all the RB and how often they might gain 0 or less yards on their rushing attempts.

As the article states, 32% was the second worst in the league, (which makes me wonder who was worse than Mack) in 2017. Looking at the last 3-5 years of this would give it more context than this, but I think it is fair to say that 32% is in the bottom 10% or so of RB if we did look at a larger time frame.

I think a lot of coaches will bench a RB if they gain 0 or lose yards this frequently, so not many RB would get the chance to do worse than Mack as far as this goes. They wouldn't get the opportunity to do worse than this.

It is a stat that actually reflects what myself and others saw Mack doing with a high frequency. Trying to reverse field instead of putting his head down and taking 2-3 yards when the defense plays well instead of trying to create a big play by running against the play design.

That creativity and the big plays are something you want the RB to do to a certain degree and you do not want to coach that out of the player, however the losses and zero yard gains are something coaches want to limit. The two things are somewhat related. I am not sure how you coach Mack to get rid of the negative plays, but still keep the positive ones.

I don't really know of a comprehensive way to look at this for all RB.

On PFR you can get a list of the players total plays and then could count them to find the number of times Mixon did this. PFR does at least put the plays in order, the longest yards to the fewest.

Joe Mixon

I kind of knew this anyways, but the most frequent outcome of a rushing play is a RB gaining 2 or 3 yards.

For Joe Mixon I count 39 times he gained 0 or less yards last season. This was 21.9% of Mixons runs. So about 10% less frequently than Marlon Mack.

I have those numbers saved somewhere but I can’t find them! It’s so frustrating when trying to find something you just had a few days ago!

Tex

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21 hours ago, Chaka said:

The offensive line in Indy last season was pretty terrible. And all props in the world to Brisset but he doesn't keep defenses honest the way a guy like Luck can.

Only point is there is not much similarity between the 2017 & 2018 Colts.

Agreed. The Colts offensive line may be in the top half of the league now if Nelson pans out as expected. Where do you think their offensive line rank compared to the other 31 teams?

Andrew Luck being healthy would change the whole offense, making the Colts a top 10ish offense in the league I think. That is a huge difference.

Mack or any RB should be able to thrive under such circumstances and if Mack can secure the job he should perform better than last season, even if he doesn't improve individually at all.

The stat of 32% of Macks runs going for 0 yards or less is just one of those rare occasions where the stat actually reflects what people are seeing when watching him play is the main reason I brought it up. It illustrates Macks tendency to try to reverse field and try to make something happen if he doesn't like how the play design is developing.

It shows that Mack was still doing this at the NFL level as well.

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24 minutes ago, BigTex said:

I have those numbers saved somewhere but I can’t find them! It’s so frustrating when trying to find something you just had a few days ago!

Tex

If you find it please share I think that would be interesting to see.

I am not sure how to do a search for this information on PFR. The plays for every player could be downloaded to excel and then queried by play, but I don't think I can search for plays on PFR with their season search tools, or I just don't know how to do it.

Doing a search of RB who had 90 or more rushing attempts reveals this list.  

If I sort by yards per carry the RB who were worse than Mack with similar or more attempts were

Jerrick McKinnon - Starter for 49ers

Lamar Miller - Starter for Texans

Christian McCaffrey - Starter for Panthers

Matt Forte - part of RBBC old

Frank Gore - part of RBBC old

Mike Gillislee - part of RBBC might not make the team

Jamaal Williams - part of RBBC

DeMarco Murray - Retired

Kerwynn Williams - Backup

Joe Mixon - Starter for Bengals

Samajae Perine - Backup

Johnathan Stewart - Backup

Chris Ivory - Backup

Adrian Peterson - Looking for a team

Ameer Abdullah - Backup

Doug Martin - Backup maybe RBBC

I suppose we could look at the frequency of these players having runs of 0 or less yards for a comparison.

McKinnon, Mack, Miller, McCaffrey, Mixon and maybe Jamaal Williams are all RB who had below average ypc with 90 or more rushing attempts. Over half of these players are not expected to be starters in 2018. Most of these players do not have the same high percentage of runs that go for 0 or less yards, but they also are not creating the big plays that Mack did as frequently either, or they would have higher ypc than he did. 

Of course 6 runs of 20+ yards out of 90 attempts would likely decrease in frequency (6%) if Mack were given more carries, like many of these other RB were. Small sample size with Macks 93 rushing attempts cuts both ways here.

It is hard for me to envision Mack having 200+ rushing attempts if he does not reduce the frequency of 0 or less yard runs.

I think there is a risk of Mack being benched or being used in a RBBC because of this, they can't have 64 plays of 0 or less yards it would be if they gave Mack 200 rushing attempts and this didn't change.

 

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21 hours ago, Faust said:

I agree that the Colts offensive line has improved; however, as a comparison, Frank Gore only failed to gain positive yardage on 16.5 percent of his rushing attempts last year.

I only own Mack in one league, and I'm not super high on him by any means, but I will say is that sometimes it takes RBs like Mack a season to learn how to run in the NFL. I remember watching LeSeaon McCoy and to a lesser extent Ray Rice, dance behind the line too much, run to the outside, and try to out-juke defenders instead of exploding for the positive yards that were there.

For Mack's sake hopefully he learns that sometimes it's better to take the three/four yards than try and make a big play. 

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