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MLB Handicapping: Back to Losing (1 Viewer)

E

Eminence

Footballguy
*DISCLAIMER, IF YOU'RE GOING TO SAY SOMETHING INSULTING TO ME OR ANYONE ELSE. DON'T POST IN MY THREAD.*

As my other thread alluded to, I am currently working on my MLB handicapping skills. We've got about 2-3 months to burn until any significant NFL / NCAA begins and me actively trying to handpick plays hasn't worked out too well. I decided I needed to create some type of "system" and see if I can't hover over 55 - 60%. This lead me to the San Francisco Giants. After watching their game last night: either that team has given up, the manager is completely incompetent, or they're throwing games.

I ran the numbers and if you would have simply bet $100 a game against the Giants starting in the month of June, you would have gone 18-5 and won $1,256.75 on the month. They've got a 4 game series against the Rockies coming up who swept them earlier this month. Below you can find a spreadsheet where I will continually be updating these numbers and "creating" the system so to speak.

Any and all advice is appreciated, I'm looking into some statistics on the Astros (in general),the Cubs (at home), and totals in Colorado. I'm trying to find a system that will sustain itself, make a little money, and keep me occupied until NBA / NFL starts.

THE SPREADSHEET

San Francisco Giants (fading ML)
18-8, +$956.75 since June 1st.

Houston Astros (ML)
15-10, +$93.32 since June 1st.

Coors Field (Over + ML)
Over / Under, 5-3-1, +$84.61 to $154.54 (-110 to -130) since June 1st.
ML, 7-2, +$326.71 since June 1st.

Small sample sizes. 4 of the 9 games played were against the Giants who we're obviously fading.

Minnesota Twins (Road ML)
10-6, +$708.76 since June 1st

Nationals (Big 3 ML)
9-6, +$124.16 since June 1st
Scherzer, 3-2, +$14.55
Strasberg, 4-2, +$23.95
Gonzalez, 3-2, +$85.63

Orioles (O/U)
16-9-1, +$330.77 to $554.55 (-110 to -130) since June 1st.
 

 
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Finished the Astros who are 14-9 for +$136.18 since June 1st. They've got a 3-game series with Oakland coming up who they swept earlier in the month. Going to backtrack and see if there's any type of correlation (maybe a specific pitcher to avoid for the Astros) for the Astros 9 losses.

 
Limp Ditka said:
Only one way to handicap baseball, but since you have me on ignore, I won't waste my time on deaf ears
Click to expand...
Dude, you've quoted me twice in the past 24 hours. First telling that I'm stupid and second mocking me with all caps. I just don't want to deal with anyone who is going to be overtly disrespectful to me. I'm sure you know a lot about baseball and that's why I'm here.

But I'd rather not be talked down to in a condescending tone to get information out of you.

 
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Eminence said:
Finished the Astros who are 14-9 for +$136.18 since June 1st. They've got a 3-game series with Oakland coming up who they swept earlier in the month. Going to backtrack and see if there's any type of correlation (maybe a specific pitcher to avoid for the Astros) for the Astros 9 losses.
Click to expand...
I looked into the 9 losses and they belong to David Paulino (2 losses), Dayan Diaz (1 loss), Brad Peacock (2 losses), Joe Musgrove (3 losses), Mike Fiers (1 loss).

David Paulino (2-2 in June, 3-2 YTD)
Dayan Diaz (0-1 in June, 0-1 YTD)*
Brad Peacock (2-2 in June, 10-8 YTD)
Joe Musgrove (0-3 in June, 5-8 YTD)
Mike Fiers (3-1 in June, 9-5 YTD)

Based on this information, we can probably safely avoid Joe Musgrove starts. Even if you ignore his 0-3 record in June, at 5-5 for the rest of the year you're really just be getting juiced by betting on him. If we avoid him, the Astros record since June 1st becomes 14-6 for +$436.18.

Dayan Diaz was a spot start so I'm just going to leave his start in there. If there's another game that's going to be pitched by the bullpen, avoid but for the purposes of keeping our data non-skewed I'm leaving it in there.

 
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Coors Field (Over + ML)
Over / Under, 5-3-1, +$84.61 to $154.54 (-130 to -110) since June 1st
ML, 7-2, +$326.71 since June 1st

Finished doing Coors Field. Was interested in the over since it's obviously an interesting park with a team with a decent number of bats. I know these numbers can differ from site-to-site so I ran the numbers from -130 to -110. There was actually an interesting distribution that I am interested to see if it carries over on a larger sample size between the actual total and the O/U. 

10.5 (1-0)
11 (0-2)
11.5 (2-0)
12 (2-0-1)
12.5 (0-1)

Small sample size. 4 of the 9 games played were against the Giants who we're obviously fading. 

ETA:

Going to get some sleep. Tomorrow, I plan on doing the Nationals ML, Twins road ML (they're apparently a good road team this year), and overs for the Orioles since they went on that crazy streak of allowing 5 more runs in a row in like 17 games.

Want to do the Dbacks at home but I assume it's like the Cubs where the line is pure chalk.

 
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Minnesota Twins (Road ML)
9-4, +$763.76 since June 1st

Finished up the Minnesota Twins ML who have been a surprisingly good road team this year. We'll get a great chance to see if this trend sticks as their next 8 games are on the road. I like this angle because it's tough for a book to make a road team the favorite on a consistent basis.

Twins have hit 8 of 10 plus money lines on the road.

 
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Eephus said:
the Giants have lost 12 out of their last 13 and now you're fading :shrug:
Click to expand...
I don't get your point. I can't retroactively bet against them and they did lose yesterday with the Mets being a +138 dog.

I see a bad team with a bad manager.

Do you have any reason to believe there's no more water in the well? They're playing three games against the Rockies who swept them earlier this month and Rockies are +116 for tonight's game.

 
Nationals (Big 3 ML)
8-5, +$106.51 since June 1st
Scherzer, 2-2, -$44.27
Strasberg, 3-2, -$34.87
Gonzalez, 3-1, +$185.63

I wanted to get the Nationals involved with this but in no way shape or form do I want my money on Roark or Ross so I decided to isolate the big 3 pitchers. Gio Gonzalez is pulling the load in the month of June but my theory is that in any given month this combination should be +EVEN.

 
Orioles (O/U)
16-7-1, +$530.77 to $754.55 (-110 to -130) since June 1st.

I wanted to get the Orioles involved with this because they just recently tied a 93 year old record where they have allowed 5+ runs in 20-straight games. When you're allowing at least 5 runs, that's half the O/U on most days.

 
Based on our system, today's plays are as follows:

Rockies ML +113 (100 / 113)
Twins ML +185 (100 / 185)
Nationals ML -158 (100 / 63.29)

 
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Betting full game money lines is a fools game. In regards to usage and performance, bullpens are way too unpredictable and you're chasing those MLs for teams that have 3 of the bottom 10 bullpen ERAs in MLB. Not smart, but considering the source, not shocking.

Bet the known commodities and that's starting pitchers, weather and ballparks. First 5 inning MLs and O/Us is the way to make money handicapping MLB

 
Limp Ditka said:
Betting full game money lines is a fools game. In regards to usage and performance, bullpens are way too unpredictable and you're chasing those MLs for teams that have 3 of the bottom 10 bullpen ERAs in MLB. Not smart, but considering the source, not shocking.

Bet the known commodities and that's starting pitchers, weather and ballparks. First 5 inning MLs and O/Us is the way to make money handicapping MLB
Click to expand...
I agree with you, I haven't bet a full game line all season until yesterday.

I'm typically a F5 guy because obviously it's easier to figure out what 2 starting pitchers are going to do over 5 frames as opposed to an entire 3+ hour game where you don't know who's going to be pitching for half of it. Plus F5 lines can push which is nice.

Lower the amount of variables you have to figure out. I do pretty well on F5 but unfortunately for me, I always end up betting on live lines and get my ### kicked. I don't have the willpower to not live bet, I'm stupid like that.

I just can't not have action on something, it's some kind of sickness. Even if I break even or ####, end up losing money it'll be better than the vicious cycle I'm in now.

Barring some type of unforeseen success with this system, I won't be making another baseball bet once opening day NFL starts.

 
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Limp Ditka said:
:lmao:

I've done my fair share of Bochy bashing over the years, but he's the farthest thing from a 'bad manager'
Click to expand...


Boch is a quote machine
 

Giants manager Bruce Bochy couldn’t believe that a national baseball reporter delved into his team’s total collapse this season by highlighting the stretching routine of closer Mark Melancon.

“It’s pole vaulting over mouse turds, to be honest,” Bochy said.
Click to expand...

 
Eminence said:
Based on our system, today's plays are as follows:

Rockies ML +113 (100 / 113)
Twins ML +185 (100 / 185)
Nationals ML -158 (100 / 63.29)
Click to expand...
So what else has been going on with you, Em? Do you currently have a day job that you shouldn't be quitting?

 
Eminence said:
Based on our system, today's plays are as follows:

Rockies ML +113 (100 / 113)
Twins ML +185 (100 / 185)
Nationals ML -158 (100 / 63.29)
Click to expand...
0-3, -$300, hot start

Based on our system, tomorrow's plays are as follows:

Astros, -160 (100 / 62.50)

Twins, +167 (100 / 167)

Orioles / Jays O10, -110 (100 / 90.90)

Nationals, -170 (100 / 58.82)

Rockies, -134 (100 / 74.62)

 
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I've never bet much baseball but the key from people I know who are good at it are:

Only bet full game dogs

Bet first 5 totals

Bet ML favorites in first five only

 
Eminence said:
0-3, -$300, hot start

Based on our system, tomorrow's plays are as follows:

Astros, -160 (100 / 62.50)

Twins, +167 (100 / 167)

Orioles / Jays O10, -110 (100 / 90.90)

Nationals, -170 (100 / 58.82)

Rockies, -134 (100 / 74.62)
Click to expand...
:lmao: may be time to come up with a new system

1-7 start

 
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A few things to note here @shadyridr and @Limp Ditka because it appears you guys have never done any extensive sports betting:

1.) Even if I did stumble upon the WORST MLB handicapping system ever, it would be a success. I could always just start betting against my own system.

2.) In a vacuum, here are the trends since I've started:

Fade Giants, 0-2

Ride the Astros, 0-1

Twins on the Road, 0-2

Nationals Big 3, 1-1

Orioles Over, 0-1

The worst parts of the system are 0-2 and the best are 1-1. But the sample size is so small. You've got to have a sample size of 10+ before you can draw any conclusions.

3.) It is possible we are experience statistical regression where the trends I picked were such anomalies that we may be seeing these trends going closer to 50% for their June totals.

Either way, the plan is to run this through the end of the MLB season and that's going to entail HUNDREDS of plays and these first two days of 1-7 are just a drop in the bucket of that.

4.) If you think it's a bad system, bet against it. I am totally fine with it being serendipitous. At the end of the day, I'm not even looking at matchups or weather.

I'm just spitting out plays based on a few different parameters. The goal isn't to be perfect, the goal is to be +EVEN over a long enough timeline.

 
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Eminence said:
0-3, -$300, hot start

Based on our system, tomorrow's plays are as follows:

Astros, -160 (100 / 62.50)

Twins, +167 (100 / 167)

Orioles / Jays O10, -110 (100 / 90.90)

Nationals, -170 (100 / 58.82)

Rockies, -134 (100 / 74.62)
Click to expand...
1-7, $-641.18, scorching hot start

System Plays

YTD: 1-7

Yesterday: 1-4

Based on our system, today's play are as follows:

Rockies -115

Nationals -170

Orioles / Jays O9.5, -110

Twins +145

Astros -175

 
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Peyton Marino said:
Cherrypicks a bunch of trends based on small samples

Loses

Uses 'small sample size' to defend himself

Classic.
Click to expand...
Lmao, I'm riding this system out for hundreds of bets. Act like you've gambled before.

I don't need to defend myself after two days, genius.

 
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This is really turning into amateur hour. Winning or losing 1-2 days doesn't make or break you.

Anyone who actually gambles knows that...

 
Eminence said:
This is really turning into amateur hour. Winning or losing 1-2 days doesn't make or break you.

Anyone who actually gambles knows that...
Click to expand...
I, as well as Dr D, posted the logical way of betting baseball. You liked both of those posts, I'm assuming because you agreed with them, yet here you are trying to defy logic with your 'system'.

So instead of 'turning into' amateur hour, I'd argue it's been exactly that since post #1.

 
Limp Ditka said:
I, as well as Dr D, posted the logical way of betting baseball. You liked both of those posts, I'm assuming because you agreed with them, yet here you are trying to defy logic with your 'system'.

So instead of 'turning into' amateur hour, I'd argue it's been exactly that since post #1.
Click to expand...
And even betting that way can result in 2 losing days in a row.

It's pretty hilarious that you don't get that these trends were picked based off A MONTHS worth of games but now you want to claim success or failure based on 2-days.

Let's ignore WHY I picked them and just laugh because some of these trends started 0-1. It's just dumb.

This is my system, my experiment, and until we're a month in these results really don't mean jack.

Does that make sense?

 
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Eminence said:
1-7, $-641.18, scorching hot start

System Plays

YTD: 1-7

Yesterday: 1-4

Based on our system, today's play are as follows:

Rockies -115

Nationals -170

Orioles / Jays O9.5, -110

Twins +145

Astros -175
Click to expand...
System Plays
YTD: 4-9 (-$580.22)
Today: 3-2

First winning day for our system, hit a sexy moneyline of Twins +145. Helped keep the juice away.

Based on our system tomorrow's plays are as follows:

Orioles O10, -105 (going to try and fish for a better line)
Twins ML +170
Astros ML (line pending)

 
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belljr said:
:constanza:
Click to expand...
:lmao:

Act like you've gambled before. Do you play two-hands of blackjack and declare yourself a winner or loser? Seriously, go find a thread that's more your speed as you don't seem to comprehend what's going on in here, rookie.

 
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Eminence said:
System Plays
YTD: 4-9 (-$580.22)
Today: 3-2

First winning day for our system, hit a sexy moneyline of Twins +145. Helped keep the juice away.

Based on our system tomorrow's plays are as follows:

Orioles O10, -105 (going to try and fish for a better line)
Twins ML +170
Astros ML -200)
Click to expand...
I've considering adding a new wrinkle to the system. I was looking at the numbers last night and what I discovered was that in the month of June:

15 of the 18 Giants losses have been by 2+ runs
14 of the 15 Astros wins have been by 2+ runs
8 of the 10 Nationals 'Big 3' wins have been by 2+ runs

So I'm considering taking the run line in situations where the lines have been juiced at -170 or more. For instance, this Astros - Athletics game the line is:

Astros -200 (100 / 50)
Astros -1.5 (100 / 95.23)

I'm just a little complacent about a potential -150 swing for an extra $45.24. All it takes is one game landing on a one-run margin to neutralize the profits of 3 runline successes.

 
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