Fournette vs mccaffery vs mixon vs Cook (edited) (1 Viewer)

 (Edited to add Cook after reading many of the great posts in this thread.) which of these (and WHY) rbs do you think:

1) has the most pure natural talent to succeed as a workhorse 3 down Rb at the NFL level?

2) is in the best situation (team, coach, qb, o-line, etc)?

3) will have the greatest fantasy impact THIS year?

4) will have the best career?

5) would YOU take with the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty draft?

my answers: 

1) has the most pure natural talent to succeed as a workhorse 3 down Rb at the NFL level? - I THINK Mixon from the tape I've watched and the scouting reports.  I have read that fournette might not even have been the best back on his team (darrius guice?), which leads me to believe it might have been the offense and the o-line that made him great in college more than his natural skill set.  I think mccaffery is super talented too, but I'm more impressed by the tape on mixon

2) is in the best situation (team, coach, qb, o-line, etc)?  Has to be mixon.  Hill and Gio aren't going to be tough competition.  Bengals didn't draft that PR headache to have him back them up.  The o line blows, but JAX o line might be even worse and panthers o line might just a bit better.  Dalton is a solid qb and they have weapons like AJ green, eifert, john Ross, and Boyd to keep defenses honest.  Bortles is a wild card.  He could sink or elevate fournette.  Jury is still out on him as an NFL qb.   Newton might hurt mccaffery.  He doesn't have a history of throwing screens and dump offs to rbs. He takes goal line looks.  He will have to change up his game a bit to take advantage of mccaffery.  Which I think he will try to do.  But that worries me.   

3) will have the greatest fantasy impact THIS year?  Again I would say mixon.  I believe he will take over as the every down back quickly and I think he is the most talented Rb out of these 3 

4) will have the best career? Mixon based on all of the above.  

5) would YOU take with the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty draft?  Mixon! Lol 

am I nuts? 

You need to add cook to the mix

Ben Gretch said that in the 10 years before Zeke, the average finish for a RB drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft was something like RB30. That seems to indicate most of these RBs are being overdrafted for redraft.

I took Mixon at 1.01 in my recent dynasty rookie draft (I did try to trade down first but no takers) so obviously I am a big believer in his talent.  I think his upside is in the Bell/DJ range as his receiving skills are elite.  Wasn't a huge fan of Fournette and the Jax landing spot makes it likely I will never own him anywhere.  I like McCaffreys talent but really wish he would have ended up on a different team.  

I'm baffled by mixon's third round redraft adp. 

At that price,  mixon will almost certainly disappoint, at least in year one. 

People are envisioning the Bengals building their offense around him like Dallas did with Elliott, and that's just not a good idea.  Dallas built their team around their o line, so they drafted Elliott with a top 5 pick.  Then Romo got hurt, too - the whole offense ran through Elliott.  

The Bengals have a questionable line, an established quarterback, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and the fastest receiver in the NFL.  

Cincinnati doesn't project to have a great run blocking unit and they'll need their backs to help in pass protection.  Jeremy hill has been very good as a pass protector, and gio is solid in all aspects of the game.  

Mixon was good in pass protection in college, but he didn't block often (perine is better and mixon went out on a lot of passing routes) so there will be a learning curve.  He also had an excellent offensive line, so he was rarely dealing with chaos.  If mixon is running pass routes every time it's a pass play, the Bengals will have to have eifert block or play two tight ends, which means they'll be benching not only hill and Bernard but also two of Ross lafell and boyd.  Dont get me wrong,  that will happen - just not every down. 

The good news is that the Bengals aren't one of those teams that change the play at the line every down.  So the learning curve won't be as steep as it would be for the giants, packers, patriots etc.  And mixon may either be good enough in pass protection or so much better at running that they want him on the field at all times.  Who knows, maybe gio is hobbled all year and hill shows up fat.

But that's what it would take to make him a good fantasy starter in year one. Cincinnati really shouldn't give him that kind of opportunity as a rookie. 

Ilov80s said:

Ben Gretch said that in the 10 years before Zeke, the average finish for a RB drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft was something like RB30. That seems to indicate most of these RBs are being overdrafted for redraft.

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Before Elliot the last 5  first round rookie RB's were Gurley, Gordon, Trent,Martin and Wilson and 3 of them were top 10 their rookie seasons.

bostonfred said:

I'm baffled by mixon's third round redraft adp. 

At that price,  mixon will almost certainly disappoint, at least in year one. 

People are envisioning the Bengals building their offense around him like Dallas did with Elliott, and that's just not a good idea.  Dallas built their team around their o line, so they drafted Elliott with a top 5 pick.  Then Romo got hurt, too - the whole offense ran through Elliott.  

The Bengals have a questionable line, an established quarterback, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and the fastest receiver in the NFL.  

Cincinnati doesn't project to have a great run blocking unit and they'll need their backs to help in pass protection.  Jeremy hill has been very good as a pass protector, and gio is solid in all aspects of the game.  

Mixon was good in pass protection in college, but he didn't block often (perine is better and mixon went out on a lot of passing routes) so there will be a learning curve.  He also had an excellent offensive line, so he was rarely dealing with chaos.  If mixon is running pass routes every time it's a pass play, the Bengals will have to have eifert block or play two tight ends, which means they'll be benching not only hill and Bernard but also two of Ross lafell and boyd.  Dont get me wrong,  that will happen - just not every down. 

The good news is that the Bengals aren't one of those teams that change the play at the line every down.  So the learning curve won't be as steep as it would be for the giants, packers, patriots etc.  And mixon may either be good enough in pass protection or so much better at running that they want him on the field at all times.  Who knows, maybe gio is hobbled all year and hill shows up fat.

But that's what it would take to make him a good fantasy starter in year one. Cincinnati really shouldn't give him that kind of opportunity as a rookie. 

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I love your analysis and I agree I don't think mixon or either of the other 2 should be drafted in the first 3 rounds of redraft this year.   None of their situations are nearly as ideal as Elliot's was with Dallas last year.  

menobrown said:

Before Elliot the last 5  first round rookie RB's were Gurley, Gordon, Trent,Martin and Wilson and 3 of them were top 10 their rookie seasons.

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Hey now, we all know there was nothing before Zeke. 

Raback said:

I took Mixon at 1.01 in my recent dynasty rookie draft (I did try to trade down first but no takers) so obviously I am a big believer in his talent.  I think his upside is in the Bell/DJ range as his receiving skills are elite.  Wasn't a huge fan of Fournette and the Jax landing spot makes it likely I will never own him anywhere.  I like McCaffreys talent but really wish he would have ended up on a different team.  

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That's my thinking.  

Gopher State said:

You need to add cook to the mix

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For some reason I don't feel cook is in the same tier as these 3.  But I could've wrong and even most scouts are usually wrong.  Look at David Johnson!  How the hell did a talent like that fall in the draft?  How did the scouts not see him as elite as he is?  

Its quite possible that it will be cook or Perine (I like perine's situation) that will prove to be the best backs in this draft.  

Ive been reading that cook is more of a speedster guy and less of a 3 down workhorse.  Like, he's not a complete back and has a lot of holes in his game.  Haven't researched him enough yet though.  

I'm going to answer these like it's PPR.

1) has the most pure natural talent to succeed as a workhorse 3 down Rb at the NFL level?

Mixon has best total package of size and skill set to be Johnson/Bell type 3 down workhorse of any RB in this draft.  I believe Fournette will be involved and is a better receiver then he is given credit and will be a workhorse but still believe Mixon is answer as a back with everydown skills and size.

2) is in the best situation (team, coach, qb, o-line, etc)?

I did not like any of their situations so let me start with that. Redraft it's Fournette or McCaffrey in a close call, don't put Mixon in conversation. I narrowly go with Fournette over McCaffrey for main reason I see the Carolina changing their entire offense and with Cam missing so much off season work I could see struggle early. In terms of best long term situation I really don't know but lean Fournette again.

3) will have the greatest fantasy impact THIS year?

Again a close call with me on Fournette vs McCaffrey but I'm going with Fournette.

4) will have the best career?

Longterm career totality I got to go with Mixon who I view as best rookie and he's got less wear and tear as the other two and some years on Fournette.

5) would YOU take with the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty draft?

Fournette I have taken at 1.1 and would do the same. McCaffrey is very close and I have both just a small tier above Mixon. Now I just said I think Mixon will have the best long term career but the here and now matter and I like the next 2-3 years of Fournette and McCaffrey more than Mixon.

menobrown said:

Before Elliot the last 5  first round rookie RB's were Gurley, Gordon, Trent,Martin and Wilson and 3 of them were top 10 their rookie seasons.

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That's true too. The average obviously very susceptible to extreme negative negative outcomes. A median would be more helpful.

menobrown said:

Before Elliot the last 5  first round rookie RB's were Gurley, Gordon, Trent,Martin and Wilson and 3 of them were top 10 their rookie seasons.

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Tampa gave Doug Martin 319 carries as a rookie under Greg Schiano.   Josh freeman and Blount combined for 80 carries - nobody else had shingle digits.  The team had a better run blocking unit than the Bengals with two time pro bowler Donald Penn and run blocking tight end Luke Stocker. The team was built around the run and play action pass, with Vincent Jackson averaging over 19 yards per catch and Josh freeman    They were not the kind of team the Bengals are.

The 2015 teams were led by Nick Foles and Case Keenum.  Again, not a passing team.  They gave Gurley 229 carries in 12 starts/13 games, and he responded with 1294 total yards and 10 touchdowns which snuck him into the top ten in a down year for running backs.  With the exception of a coupe starts for Tre mason, Gurley was the every down workhorse and got all the goal line work.  Their leading receiver was Tavon Austin with 52 receptions.  Nobody else even caught 40. 

Trent Richardson was also the center of his offense.  The browns were led by Brandon weeden, and their top receiver had 53 catches (Greg little).  They also had Josh Gordon (50/805]. Richardson didn't even play that well, averaging 3.6 per attempt, but the offense just totally ran through him with 267 rushes and 51 receptions and 12 of the team's embarrassingly low 28 offensive touchdowns.  And let's not forget they had Joe Thomas and Alex mack. 

What do all those guys have in common?  They played for run heavy offenses, they got featured early, they didn't share carries or have a touchdown vulture... pretty much the opposite of the Bengals.  Sounds more like the Panthers, really. 

I might need to give mccaffrey some more thought for this year. Stewart scares me a little but he's hardly the picture of health.

All this discussion everywhere, TV, Twitter and here. Everyone leaves Cook out. That is clearly the precursor to Cook being the best RB of the group. 

Ilov80s said:

That's true too. The average obviously very susceptible to extreme negative negative outcomes. A median would be more helpful.

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I would rely on recent data and recent data suggests investing in a first round RB in redraft is a good move. Of those 5 I listed out only Gordon was really a major rookie bust. Wilson did not do anything but he was not really expected to by most people either.

The major reason I would rely more on recent first round RB data is the bar to be a first round rookie RB got pushed up a ton over what we used to know.  I think if you go back to the era that does not seem that long ago when you had players like a Ced Benson go as top 10 RB's and that might as well be 50 years ago.

So the talent bar to go in round one I believe got pushed up a little bit and due to salary cap/relatively cheap cost of RB's on FA market and it only makes it more likely if a team invests in a RB in round one they have a large role in planned for you right out of the gate.

bostonfred said:

Tampa gave Doug Martin 319 carries as a rookie under Greg Schiano.   Josh freeman and Blount combined for 80 carries - nobody else had shingle digits.  The team had a better run blocking unit than the Bengals with two time pro bowler Donald Penn and run blocking tight end Luke Stocker. The team was built around the run and play action pass, with Vincent Jackson averaging over 19 yards per catch and Josh freeman    They were not the kind of team the Bengals are.

The 2015 teams were led by Nick Foles and Case Keenum.  Again, not a passing team.  They gave Gurley 229 carries in 12 starts/13 games, and he responded with 1294 total yards and 10 touchdowns which snuck him into the top ten in a down year for running backs.  With the exception of a coupe starts for Tre mason, Gurley was the every down workhorse and got all the goal line work.  Their leading receiver was Tavon Austin with 52 receptions.  Nobody else even caught 40. 

Trent Richardson was also the center of his offense.  The browns were led by Brandon weeden, and their top receiver had 53 catches (Greg little).  They also had Josh Gordon (50/805]. Richardson didn't even play that well, averaging 3.6 per attempt, but the offense just totally ran through him with 267 rushes and 51 receptions and 12 of the team's embarrassingly low 28 offensive touchdowns.  And let's not forget they had Joe Thomas and Alex mack. 

What do all those guys have in common?  They played for run heavy offenses, they got featured early, they didn't share carries or have a touchdown vulture... pretty much the opposite of the Bengals.  Sounds more like the Panthers, really. 

I might need to give mccaffrey some more thought for this year. Stewart scares me a little but he's hardly the picture of health.

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I agree with you on Mixon but he was not a first round pick either. The two RB's who did go in round one I feel good about as redraft investments.

menobrown said:

I would rely on recent data and recent data suggests investing in a first round RB in redraft is a good move. Of those 5 I listed out only Gordon was really a major rookie bust. Wilson did not do anything but he was not really expected to by most people either.

The major reason I would rely more on recent first round RB data is the bar to be a first round rookie RB got pushed up a ton over what we used to know.  I think if you go back to the era that does not seem that long ago when you had players like a Ced Benson go as top 10 RB's and that might as well be 50 years ago.

So the talent bar to go in round one I believe got pushed up a little bit and due to salary cap/relatively cheap cost of RB's on FA market and it only makes it more likely if a team invests in a RB in round one they have a large role in planned for you right out of the gate.

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In the last 5 years, there were five  1st round RBs. Three of them were RB1s, two of them were busts. This year there are three RBs that went in the first round. This year doesn't seem to fit in with the last five years. You are preferring recent data. I prefer the data that has the largest sample size. 

rickyg said:

For some reason I don't feel cook is in the same tier as these 3.  But I could've wrong and even most scouts are usually wrong.  Look at David Johnson!  How the hell did a talent like that fall in the draft?  How did the scouts not see him as elite as he is?  

Its quite possible that it will be cook or Perine (I like perine's situation) that will prove to be the best backs in this draft.  

Ive been reading that cook is more of a speedster guy and less of a 3 down workhorse.  Like, he's not a complete back and has a lot of holes in his game.  Haven't researched him enough yet though.  

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Ilov80s said:

In the last 5 years, there were five  1st round RBs. Three of them were RB1s, two of them were busts. This year there are three RBs that went in the first round. This year doesn't seem to fit in with the last five years. You are preferring recent data. I prefer the data that has the largest sample size. 

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Thankfully there are different viewpoints on how data is interpreted or this would be a really boring game.

I know it seems like more but only two RB's went in the first round this year and for that matter both top 10 picks. I see them going as 3rd-4th round in redrafts and I 100% approve of that investment.

Ilov80s said:

Ben Gretch said that in the 10 years before Zeke, the average finish for a RB drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft was something like RB30. That seems to indicate most of these RBs are being overdrafted for redraft.

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This doesn't seem accurate. I mean even Trent Richardson was RB 9 in his rookie season in 2012. Several other times it has happened in the past decade as well. Drafts have not been as good in recent years, you had a couple years that did not have a 1st round RB at all. It is cherry picking to ignore the many players who were drafted after the 1st round who were much more successful than this in their rookie seasons. Jordan Howard for example last season from the 5th round.

That said according to this research I did, the rookie season is the lowest average VBD of a RBs first six seasons. A RBs best year on average is their 3rd season. They tend to get better in their second season in the league. There are several reasons for this. One of them is pass protection, many rookies are not able to handle that role well enough to earn the coaches complete trust and therefore get enough opportunity to perform as well in their rookie season. Some coaches are slow to trust rookies, or just prefer some form of RBBC and use a change of pace RB more during the rookies season than they will in that players second season.

Here are the players who ranked 30 or higher from 1989 to 2014 along with where they ranked in standard scoring leagues as rookies.

2    Curtis Martin HOF
2    Edgerrin James
2    Doug Martin
2    Jerome Bettis HOF
3    Adrian Peterson
4    Barry Sanders HOF
4    Clinton Portis
4    Marshall Faulk HOF
4    Matt Forte
4    Mike Anderson
5    Alfred Morris
5    Fred Taylor
6    Eddie Lacy
6    Steve Slaton
7    LaDainian Tomlinson
7    Emmitt Smith HOF
8    Ricky Watters
8    Corey Dillon
8    Eddie George
8    Reggie Bush
9    Karim Abdul-Jabbar
9    Trent Richardson
9    Robert Edwards
10    Jeremy Hill
10    Terry Kirby
11    Chris Johnson
11    Joseph Addai
12    Terrell Davis
12    Marshawn Lynch
13    Warrick Dunn
13    Anthony Thomas
14    Le'Veon Bell
14    Maurice Jones-Drew
14    Errict Rhett
14    Olandis Gary
15    Domanick Williams
16    Jamal Lewis
16    Knowshon Moreno
16    Giovani Bernard
16    Rashaan Salaam
18    Kevin Smith
18    Zac Stacy
18    Reggie Brooks
19    Antowain Smith
19    Cadillac Williams
19    Leonard Russell
20    Mikel Leshoure
20    Bam Morris
21    Johnny Johnson
21    Kevin Jones
22    Jahvid Best
23    Natrone Means
23    Marion Butts
23    Ronnie Brown
23    Mike Alstott
24    Tre Mason
24    Andre Ellington
24    Jonathan Stewart
25    Vick Ballard
25    William Green
27    Ricky Williams
28    Travis Henry
28    Laurence Maroney
28    Andre Williams
28    Ben Tate
28    Sammie Smith
29    Julius Jones
29    Ron Dayne
30    DeMarco Murray
30    Ryan Mathews
30    Kevan Barlow
30    Beanie Wells

1) has the most pure natural talent to succeed as a workhorse 3 down Rb at the NFL level?

In my opinion from watching these players Dalvin Cook, although Fournette, McCaffrey and Mixon are very talented RB as well.

2) is in the best situation (team, coach, qb, o-line, etc)?

Team: Vikings   The Vikings do have a good defense, you could argue this in favor of Jax too who has a lot of talent on that side of the ball. They were above average in yards given up, yards per play and 1st downs given up. They were still below average in points allowed and turnovers forced however, the Vikings being a good defense in all of these categories.

Coach: While I think Mike Zimmer is the best coach out of these 4 teams I think Fournette gets the most support from current coaching staff and front office.

QB: Panthers although Cam might continue stealing goal line opportunities which hurts. I tend to think this gets scaled back some as Cam is getting older now.

Oline: Vikings I think slightly better than Carolina. The Bengals offensive line could be good I suppose and they seem to use higher draft picks on the offensive side of the ball than these other teams do. If some of their players stepping into big shoes perform well then I think it will be the Bengals. Right now I think it is the Vikings but all 4 offensive lines have some big question marks.

Competition for opportunity: Fournette I think has the clearest path to high volume opportunity. All of them are talented enough that they could just outplay the other RB on their teams however. I think Mixon has the most competition for playing time because of how the Bengals always stacks their offense. A trend that I think continues, which could be good for Mixon (high offensive line picks) or bad for Mixon (draft another RB next year) seems unlikely they would do that but this is third second round RB pick by the Bengals in the last five years. I didn't see the Hill pick coming either.

3) will have the greatest fantasy impact THIS year?

Fournette. I kind of listed some of the reasons above. I think Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey and Mixon all end up sharing more with other RB than Fournette will. PPR could sway me towards Cook or McCaffey.

4) will have the best career?

Dalvin Cook because of reason number one.

5) would YOU take with the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty draft?

I think Corey Davis is the best option for the 1st overall pick in a rookie draft. If Davis were gone then I would select Dalvin Cook if I couldn't trade down or do something I liked better with the pick. I can see drafting Fournette ahead of the rest because of NFL draft position, better expected rookie season leading to earlier sell high window though. I just like Cook too much to actually do that. I have ranked Fournette and McCaffrey ahead of Cook (same tier) because of NFL draft position, but being honest with myself I would draft Cook ahead of those two if I have to.

Biabreakable said:

I think Corey Davis is the best option for the 1st overall pick in a rookie draft. 

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Go back six months and you'll see people saying this is a strong rb draft with weak receivers, and fournette and cook are 1 and 2 in no particular order. 

Go back to the combine and you'll see people saying mccaffrey and mixon had joined the conversation and the top two receivers were probably Davis and Williams, but this was a deep draft with no standouts. 

Go back to the days before the NFL draft and mixon and mccaffrey were getting hype while fournette was clearly the "best" and cook had enough red flags between character and speed that he'd slipped to third put even fourth.  Davis and Williams were still clearly the top guys, although juju and Ross and zay weren't far behind.

Then somehow it became Davis 1.1 because he went to a team that needed him.  It feels to me like that's a case of "receivers are more valuable than running backs', not "Davis is a better prospect than the other guys".  

Are you that high on Davis? Or not that high on the backs? 

bostonfred said:

Go back six months and you'll see people saying this is a strong rb draft with weak receivers, and fournette and cook are 1 and 2 in no particular order. 

Go back to the combine and you'll see people saying mccaffrey and mixon had joined the conversation and the top two receivers were probably Davis and Williams, but this was a deep draft with no standouts. 

Go back to the days before the NFL draft and mixon and mccaffrey were getting hype while fournette was clearly the "best" and cook had enough red flags between character and speed that he'd slipped to third put even fourth.  Davis and Williams were still clearly the top guys, although juju and Ross and zay weren't far behind.

Then somehow it became Davis 1.1 because he went to a team that needed him.  It feels to me like that's a case of "receivers are more valuable than running backs', not "Davis is a better prospect than the other guys".  

Are you that high on Davis? Or not that high on the backs? 

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It basically is the perspective that elite WR are more valuable than RB in the long term.

I have thought Cook was the best RB going into the 2016 college season. At the same time I also have known that Fournette is very good and favorite of the consensus. The NFL draft position is higher for Fournette and McCaffrey. I have respect for that despite my personal opinion about the players relative talent.

Mixon was more of a new player for me. I was not really tracking him going into 2016. I have been following Perine longer than Mixon. Watching the cut ups of Mixon this spring, He is a very talented player. It stands out watching him and Perine side by side. It makes Perine (who I really like) look not so good by comparison. At the same time I don't think Mixon is the most talented RB of this draft class, just that he deserves to be in the same tier as the other 3. The upside for Mixon is great. FWIW I had Mixon as a tier two prospect prior to the NFL draft. He was selected high enough that I moved him up to tier one with the other 3.

I am very high on all of them, just highest on Dalvin Cook who I think is comparable to Elliot as far as talent goes. Elliot much better at pass protection and hasn't had the fumble issues Cook has however, which still makes him a better prospect in my eyes, but they are very close to me as runners and receivers. 

Corey Davis is an excellent WR who I would rate higher than DeVantae Parker for example who I absolutely loved as a prospect. Davis runs much better routes than Parker was and can win in the same ways that Parker can as well. He is very very good.

Biabreakable said:

1) has the most pure natural talent to succeed as a workhorse 3 down Rb at the NFL level?

In my opinion from watching these players Dalvin Cook, although Fournette, McCaffrey and Mixon are very talented RB as well.

2) is in the best situation (team, coach, qb, o-line, etc)?

Team: Vikings   The Vikings do have a good defense, you could argue this in favor of Jax too who has a lot of talent on that side of the ball. They were above average in yards given up, yards per play and 1st downs given up. They were still below average in points allowed and turnovers forced however, the Vikings being a good defense in all of these categories.

Coach: While I think Mike Zimmer is the best coach out of these 4 teams I think Fournette gets the most support from current coaching staff and front office.

QB: Panthers although Cam might continue stealing goal line opportunities which hurts. I tend to think this gets scaled back some as Cam is getting older now.

Oline: Vikings I think slightly better than Carolina. The Bengals offensive line could be good I suppose and they seem to use higher draft picks on the offensive side of the ball than these other teams do. If some of their players stepping into big shoes perform well then I think it will be the Bengals. Right now I think it is the Vikings but all 4 offensive lines have some big question marks.

Competition for opportunity: Fournette I think has the clearest path to high volume opportunity. All of them are talented enough that they could just outplay the other RB on their teams however. I think Mixon has the most competition for playing time because of how the Bengals always stacks their offense. A trend that I think continues, which could be good for Mixon (high offensive line picks) or bad for Mixon (draft another RB next year) seems unlikely they would do that but this is third second round RB pick by the Bengals in the last five years. I didn't see the Hill pick coming either.

3) will have the greatest fantasy impact THIS year?

Fournette. I kind of listed some of the reasons above. I think Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey and Mixon all end up sharing more with other RB than Fournette will. PPR could sway me towards Cook or McCaffey.

4) will have the best career?

Dalvin Cook because of reason number one.

5) would YOU take with the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty draft?

I think Corey Davis is the best option for the 1st overall pick in a rookie draft. If Davis were gone then I would select Dalvin Cook if I couldn't trade down or do something I liked better with the pick. I can see drafting Fournette ahead of the rest because of NFL draft position, better expected rookie season leading to earlier sell high window though. I just like Cook too much to actually do that. I have ranked Fournette and McCaffrey ahead of Cook (same tier) because of NFL draft position, but being honest with myself I would draft Cook ahead of those two if I have to.

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Interesting.  Can you explain the love for cook?  Most of what I have read on him was that he wasn't a complete back. 

rickyg said:

Interesting.  Can you explain the love for cook?  Most of what I have read on him was that he wasn't a complete back. 

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Pretty sure it is all in the Cook thread. He has excellent vision, change of direction, balance agility, burst, long speed, decent power although more of an elusive RB which is the style of RB I prefer. Can run inside and create yards on his own through jump cuts, good timing and footwork. Excellent receiver as well. 

Had too many fumbles and blocking technique needs work. Some off field concerns but from what I have read he is an excellent team mate and hard worker. The Vikings do prioritize these things in their player evaluation. Peterson is a knucklehead but I don't think anyone doubts his work ethic and desire to be great. I think Cook is similar work ethic and desire to be the best player he can be.

The combine results were puzzling it doesn't match the tape. I suppose you could question his preparation for some of those drills in regards to his work ethic, but I will leave that to the Vikings front office to figure out if that is a problem or not. Based on their pick and statements they have made following it, they were not concerned about it.

rickyg said:

Interesting.  Can you explain the love for cook?  Most of what I have read on him was that he wasn't a complete back. 

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Is it possible you were not reading the right stuff, or watching the right stuff. Watch your own tape, see for yourself. Until you have all the info on Cook, you shouldnt really be doing anything with the other 3 until then.

Having the #2 pick I watched so much tape on these guys tirelessly and the one who does translate well tot he MFL is McCaffery, for me. I love him in college, the offense was built around him, in Carolina, not so much.

Mixon has talent, but you couldnt see much of it in college. Missed an entire year and Cincy still has two other 2nd round backs that will get some time.

Plus some of these scouts and "experts" miss just as much as they hit, trust no one but yourself. I know this, I'm not trusting anyone based off their gut, ever. I will use their input to help my decision but my decision is never based off some opinions in a thread, I recommend the same to you. I just say look at Cook more, and if Fournette is gone. Take the best player, and that is Cook.

Bengals do have two other 2nd round backs, and before you say "they are not going to use them, they showed they are nothing, blah blah blah" How long before Mixon is just another back like them, then?  Fournette will get all his, McCaffery is still gonna share a ton with Stew, Samuel and Cam.

But watch any video, Cook is more agile and can cut better than any of them. 

Fournette, Cook, Mixon, McCaff in that order for me. The point is you left a guy many consider a top 3 back off your list because "you dont know much about him."

Number 1 thing that crushes people during a season more than injuries...overthinking it and over coaching it. 

Biabreakable said:

Pretty sure it is all in the Cook thread. He has excellent vision, change of direction, balance agility, burst, long speed, decent power although more of an elusive RB which is the style of RB I prefer. Can run inside and create yards on his own through jump cuts, good timing and footwork. Excellent receiver as well. 

Had too many fumbles and blocking technique needs work. Some off field concerns but from what I have read he is an excellent team mate and hard worker. The Vikings do prioritize these things in their player evaluation. Peterson is a knucklehead but I don't think anyone doubts his work ethic and desire to be great. I think Cook is similar work ethic and desire to be the best player he can be.

The combine results were puzzling it doesn't match the tape. I suppose you could question his preparation for some of those drills in regards to his work ethic, but I will leave that to the Vikings front office to figure out if that is a problem or not. Based on their pick and statements they have made following it, they were not concerned about it.

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I cant find it on twitter, but I recall people saying Cook was ill that day. Didnt use it as a complaint or nothing but I read in passing scrolling twitter that Cook was over a trash can at times. Could have been cutting wait or just like Lacy, god ahold of some China food that didnt sit well. This was shortly after the draft, not the combine I saw the tweet. 

So not proof, but I know if my stomach was jacked up I wouldnt be running the best cone drills. 

This is a tough question too answer because all of these guys are really good.

Best overall talent? I'd say mixon. 

Best situation? I like McCaffrey. I think the Panthers have a plan for him, and I like how he could fit into a pick your poison type scheme.

Best this year? I'd say fournette, as he projects to be a true bell cow.

Best career? Mcaffery. Thinking about skill set, how he projects to be used, football IQ, etc.

Who would I take? Mcaffery.

All that said, if you get any of the four of these guys (in dynasty) you should be satisfied with the pick. I maneuvered my way into the 1.01, 1.03, and 1.04 in one of my dynasties and walked away with Davis, fournette, and mixon. Mcaffery went 1.02. 

Mavis said:

I cant find it on twitter, but I recall people saying Cook was ill that day. Didnt use it as a complaint or nothing but I read in passing scrolling twitter that Cook was over a trash can at times. Could have been cutting wait or just like Lacy, god ahold of some China food that didnt sit well. This was shortly after the draft, not the combine I saw the tweet. 

So not proof, but I know if my stomach was jacked up I wouldnt be running the best cone drills. 

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I call BS on being sick. Cook still ran a fast 40 and when Cook did the Nike skills camp his SPARQ score was basically the same. He's a below average athlete for the RB position.

Ilov80s said:

I call BS on being sick. Cook still ran a fast 40 and when Cook did the Nike skills camp his SPARQ score was basically the same. He's a below average athlete for the RB position.

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Mavis said:

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He's fast but he is on the smaller side, isn't quick and doesn't have much burst. He is in the 30-40th percentile for SPARQ. That doesn't mean he will fail or he's a bad RB.

Ilov80s said:

He's fast but he is on the smaller side, isn't quick and doesn't have much burst. He is in the 30-40th percentile for SPARQ. That doesn't mean he will fail or he's a bad RB.

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I hear you, but I dont agree. Isnt quick? Guy is the fastest dude around in pads if you care about tests, ask Jimbo Fisher.  You called him below average, that is funny to me. He is far from a below average athlete. That means you think he will be a bad RB. 

Mavis said:

I hear you, but I dont agree. Isnt quick? Guy is the fastest dude around in pads if you care about tests, ask Jimbo Fisher.  You called him below average, that is funny to me. He is far from a below average athlete. That means you think he will be a bad RB. 

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I don't doubt that he's fast. I'm questioning his quickness and explosiveness. He has quite a few flaws and isn't my favorite RB this year. As for Jumbo, every coach gives glowing reviews of their players. I don't usually listen to that stuff. 

Ilov80s said:

I don't doubt that he's fast. I'm questioning his quickness and explosiveness. He has quite a few flaws and isn't my favorite RB this year. As for Jumbo, every coach gives glowing reviews of their players. I don't usually listen to that stuff. 

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Nothing you said is a fact, and just your opinions and I thinks. No, I do not value anything you say over a test ran by the FSU football department on its players. Jumbo didnt throw every other FSU player he coached under the bus of statistics to prop up one play named Cook. You dont listen to stuff like that, but you will listen to wanna be fantasy writers who really know nothing more than anyone else? lol You listen to scouts who are often wrong and fired yearly? You do all that, I'll watch tape and view game results as well as listen to those who do coach him. People have a real issue with trusting those who really know whats going on and rather trust those on the outside looking in, who don't have all the answers. Some need to know what coach speak is and what tests are. 

Mavis said:

Nothing you said is a fact, and just your opinions and I thinks. No, I do not value anything you say over a test ran by the FSU football department on its players. Jumbo didnt throw every other FSU player he coached under the bus of statistics to prop up one play named Cook. You dont listen to stuff like that, but you will listen to wanna be fantasy writers who really know nothing more than anyone else? lol You listen to scouts who are often wrong and fired yearly? You do all that, I'll watch tape and view game results as well as listen to those who do coach him. People have a real issue with trusting those who really know whats going on and rather trust those on the outside looking in, who don't have all the answers. Some need to know what coach speak is and what tests are. 

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Actually 40 times and percentiles and SPARQ scores are facts. We can disagree about how important or relevant they are, but I'm not going to argue with someone who says those numbers aren't facts.

Ilov80s said:

Actually 40 times and percentiles and SPARQ scores are facts. We can disagree about how important or relevant they are, but I'm not going to argue with someone who says those numbers aren't facts.

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I didnt dispute those facts, I disputed your "I thinks" in the previous posts as "facts" lol. Those stats just dont matter one bit, not at all. they have never mattered and will never matter to the game of football or fantasy football. You will see more and more people turn down the combine. I like many do not take any interest what so ever about stats from people running straight lines in underwear. Until they play in underwear, I will care more about the stats of Jimbo Fisher and Sports Science, where he was wearing pads and finished #1 ever tested in both tests. Acceleration and quickness in pads, not straight lines in underwear.. You just said you wrote off tests as you accuse others of writing off facts. Sparq score? lol Man look at the list of the players busted on that list as well as those with fast 40 times. 

The problem lies with those trying to knock down a player. Dude was drafted in the NFL by professionals, you are telling us he is a below average talent while citing 40 times and Sparq scores as your "proof" despite the other tests and game tape. Seems you only trust what you want to trust that goes with your line of thinking.

I have no reason to love or like any of these guys, I just talk about them truthfully. I will own all of them in some league some where at some point with the number of leagues I play. Leaving Cook off this list is not right, and saying he is a below average talent is also incorrect. Discuss the 4 if you like, but it is the 4 that should be discussed as none of them are below average athletes. 

bostonfred said:

Go back six months and you'll see people saying this is a strong rb draft with weak receivers, and fournette and cook are 1 and 2 in no particular order. 

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I would absolutely not be on of those people. I was strongly adamant on these boards, going back as long as 5 months ago, that the draft was not some kind of Fournette/Cook 1/2 lock and that Williams and Davis merited consideration as a top picks. Just ask FreeBagel, we had this discussion over and over on these boards where I kept insisting that it was not Fournette/Cook as top two and upper ecehlon WR's were better than people are giving them credit. This was my opinion about 6 months ago.

bostonfred said:

Go back to the combine and you'll see people saying mccaffrey and mixon had joined the conversation and the top two receivers were probably Davis and Williams, but this was a deep draft with no standouts. 

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The combine changed a few things for me. Williams became shakier, still a top 5-6 guy for me but no longer anyone I would consider as a top 2 type pick unless he tore up his pro day which he did not. Davis was a mystery but Fournette was mildy disappointing and Cook heavily disappointing meanwhile McCaffrey soured up and Mixon would at his pro day. At this point I felt like it was a 5 man race for pick 1.1 in dynasty, between Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Mixon and Davis. Knowing what I knew at the time I'd have rated Davis 5th, and Williams 6th but all were in contention.

bostonfred said:

Go back to the days before the NFL draft and mixon and mccaffrey were getting hype while fournette was clearly the "best" and cook had enough red flags between character and speed that he'd slipped to third put even fourth.  Davis and Williams were still clearly the top guys, although juju and Ross and zay weren't far behind.

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I never had one iota of concern on Cook's character of speed. His 40 time was actually the least worrisome of his workout numbers and at this point I had him as my 4th rated RB but still in contention for 1.1 if the landing spot was ideal because the gap between 1 and 4 was that small. At no point during this off-season, post draft, pre draft, at any point did I put Juju, Ross or Zay anywhere close to Davis and Williams as fantasy prospects.  Those other WR's I viewed as second round fantasy picks unless they had some amazing landing spots.

bostonfred said:

Then somehow it became Davis 1.1 because he went to a team that needed him.  It feels to me like that's a case of "receivers are more valuable than running backs', not "Davis is a better prospect than the other guys".  

Are you that high on Davis? Or not that high on the backs? 

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I felt that the top 4 RB's all somehow landed in negative value spots, none deal killers so to speak but all negative.  Davis landed in a realtively plus spot, though some don't see it that way due to what is currently not a high volume pass attack but I felt that getting paired with a young QB-who he listed as his favorite QB before the draft and the type of routes he runs were ideally suited for the throws Mariotta likes to make and this was a really good match.  Also having never got to see Davis workout or know his medicals on his off season surgery seeing him go that high to a team who has way more information on him than I do made me feel better about those things I could not know.

This coming from someone who generally likes RB's over WR's but it was enough to put Davis into consideration at 1.1.

For me in the end I had top tier of 5 like most people but inside that top 5 tier Fournette, McCaffrey and Davis resided as the big 3, Mixon firmly planted as 4 and Cook at 5 and after that tier Williams at 6. And these rankings applies to PPR and FFPC TE leauges.  I had Howard, Engram and Njoku as 6-9 but Kamara was someone I was so high on that if I needed a RB bad enough I'd at least consider taking him over one of those TE's but ended up never facing that decison.  That was then, the Mike Williams back injury is a mild concern, enough of one I'd drop him from 6 to 9 or 10 right now.

Anyway that is general thought process on these players going back to bowl season. Short version is I never considered Fournette/Cook as top two locks and always felt that Davis or Williams merited being in the consideration along with a few other RB's.

Cook's game isn't built on quickness and burst. It's built on vision and balance. Those are the traits where he stands out. 

WagesOfZin said:

Cook's game isn't built on quickness and burst. It's built on vision and balance. Those are the traits where he stands out. 

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Add Big play potential he 796 yards on runs of 15 or more yards his final season at Florida State.

Add his tackle breaking abilities averaging 4.19 yards per carry after contact which is second-highest in this draft class.

Add Elusiveness forcing 91 missed tackles on just 288 rushing attempts he lead ALL running backs in missed tackles.

LSU’s offensive line ranked 29th-best in snap-adjusted run-blocking grade, while FSU ranked 99th-best out of 129.

I could continue but it's not necessary but Cook not being listed is laughable. 

Mixon couldn't beat out Perine and CMC is still a gifted gadget player until proven otherwise and neither have never been praised higher than Cook until the Combine.

The argument should be Fournette vs Cook.

Tex

BigTex said:

Add Big play potential he 796 yards on runs of 15 or more yards his final season at Florida State.

Add his tackle breaking abilities averaging 4.19 yards per carry after contact which is second-highest in this draft class.

Add Elusiveness forcing 91 missed tackles on just 288 rushing attempts he lead ALL running backs in missed tackles.

LSU’s offensive line ranked 29th-best in snap-adjusted run-blocking grade, while FSU ranked 99th-best out of 129.

I could continue but it's not necessary but Cook not being listed is laughable. 

Mixon couldn't beat out Perine and CMC is still a gifted gadget player until proven otherwise and neither have never been praised higher than Cook until the Combine.

The argument should be Fournette vs Cook.

Tex

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Spot on the money here

Mavis said:

I cant find it on twitter, but I recall people saying Cook was ill that day. Didnt use it as a complaint or nothing but I read in passing scrolling twitter that Cook was over a trash can at times. Could have been cutting wait or just like Lacy, god ahold of some China food that didnt sit well. This was shortly after the draft, not the combine I saw the tweet. 

So not proof, but I know if my stomach was jacked up I wouldnt be running the best cone drills. 

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Never heard anything about that before now. Would make sense if true. I was disappointed when he didn't run any of those drills at pro day at the time, but it really doesn't matter.

I think this is when a lot of people dropped Cook from consideration as the best RB of the draft. Also at around this time more rumors of Cooks past started cropping up a lot as well. 

Disagree. The argument should be fournette vs cook vs mcaffery vs mixon. They're close enough that they all deserve to be in the same discussion. They're all in the same tier. People may, and should, disagree on the order but they're all part of the conversation.

Also, I would contend that tackle breaking and elusiveness are functions of vision and balance. Kind of splitting hairs there, but nonetheless.

WagesOfZin said:

Also, I would contend that tackle breaking and elusiveness are functions of vision and balance. Kind of splitting hairs there, but nonetheless.

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I'm fairly certain that vision and balance are different.

Tex

And elusiveness has a lot to do with explosiveness.

BigTex said:

I'm fairly certain that vision and balance are different.

Tex

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I think you may be misinterpreting my post. Obviously they are different.

Catbird said:

And elusiveness has a lot to do with explosiveness.

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Explosiveness can attribute to elusiveness definitely. However, it's not the sole trait contributing to it, nor is it necessarily a prerequisite. 

Catbird said:

And elusiveness has a lot to do with explosiveness.

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Why?

I believe that a player can being elusive without be explosive, and vice versa.

.

I will not argue that every elusive RB is an explosive player, but exploding out of a tackler's grasp and away from tight situations is one way to be elusive. If you watch Cook, he veers away from tight situations and instantly and visibly accelerates along a new path. As THE most elusive player in college football, he probably uses other methods as well, but that's the one I see as his unusual talent.

I would also think that other talents being similar, more explosive players are more elusive players in general because they can explode away from trouble that less explosive players can't, no?

Cook demonstrates all of the traits you guys are trying to differentiate. I think some critiques of his power are overly critical although he could be more consistent than he is as far as pad level and driving after contact. Pete Berchich points this out on some plays

He is very consistent as far as being able to set up blocks, press the hole and cut back. He processes and anticipates angles of defenders extremely well and has the combination of balance, agility, footwork and burst to create on his own ,maximizing what the defense gives him.

His abilities as a receiver are excellent as well. He can track the ball over his shoulder and catch the ball at its highest point to prevent defenders from getting to the ball. His ability to make defenders miss makes him very dangerous on screen passes and dump offs to the flat as well. Some people compare his abilities as a receiver to Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. While that might be a bit hyperbolic, he is a very good receiver as well as a runner.