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***Risers and Fallers***2017 (1 Viewer)

Ilov80s

Ilov80s

Footballguy
We are about 6 weeks from the heart of the fantasy draft season. Training camp  will begin. Preseason highlights will be all over our screens. The masses will  flock to ESPN, NFLN and Yahoo. With all of this, we will see some players rise up draft boards and others fall. Foe example, I feel like last year Marvin Jones ADP went from a 10th round pick in June to a 5th-6h round pick pick by mid-August. 

Without factoring for training camp/preseason injuries  (since that is totally random and could impact any player), who do you see rising the highest in ADP? Who  do you see falling in ADP? 

 
I've talked about this guy a lot today, but Ty Montgomery is a guy I think is currently valued fair (ADP 49), but I think once camp rolls around he will climb. I think he is over valued in general and we could see him being talked about being drafted round 2-3. Certainly I think that's a bit absurd (I'm not high on him at all this year), but I think you will see a lot of reports talking about how he's bulked up and put on a lot of muscle to shoulder a full RB load. Plus having to fight off rookies can't be too hard as they are just learning the ropes yet. Ty has a huge advantage early on this season. A super bowl contending team has a RB who averaged 5.9 YPC and he's being drafted as the RB18-19? He has nowhere to go but up. FWIW he's on my avoid list, but this is the kind of hype that causes a guy to rise. 

I don't know what would call a guy to fall aside from injury issues. Usually a hyped player remains somewhat hyped even after a bad camp or even preseason. Maybe DeVante Parker is a good candidate for a faller. Seems like a lot of people are predicting him to go nuts but I feel like we will see more of the same this preseason and he will drop. 

 
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Every future post in this thread:

Risers - Guys on my fantasy team

Fallers - Guys not on my fantasy team

 
Martavis Bryant's ADP is going to go through the roof during training camp as he continues to make impressive catches. 

I think Marvin Jones is extremely undervalued currently and I hope he doesn't go up in value but expect people to see he is the WR1 on that team and his ADP to rise to 7 round levels.

I could see John Browns ADP rising if he is healthy during camp.

Ted Ginn is going to catch two long TDs in the first two preseason games and his adp will rise to 6th, 7th round.

For fallers I think Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin, Crabtree, Ingram, Fournette, ware, Hill

 
I can see Perine having a big pre-season and rocketing up the draft boards. 

Also if Keenan Allen is truly back, he could regain some lost draft value.

 
zamboni said:
I can see Perine having a big pre-season and rocketing up the draft boards. 
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Perine has already climbed a lot, to the point that I think people wouldn't pay  that much more if the coaches announced he was their week 1 starter. You're mostly paying for rookie uncertainty with him right now.  So I don't think he fits.  The same thing with the top 4 rookie backs. They're all priced as day 1 starters, so while they could climb a few more picks they don't really fit this thread.  

For role uncertainty there's Hunt/Ware, either one could go up quickly based on camp reports.  Same with Hyde/Williams, Montgomery/Williams/ etc, Foreman/Miller, and Martin/McNichols.

For vets there's Dixon/West, Ingram/ Peterson,  Anderson/Charles/Booker, Forte/Powell,  Turbin/Mack, Lynch/etc, Abdullah/Riddick, Lacy/Rawls/Prosise, and the Philly guys. 

So let's get those out of the way.  Who else? 

 
Marshawn Lynch, moving up. Besides having been out of football and his age, he wasn't looking like a beast when he last played but his adp is on a upwards trajectory and being hyped like he's the second coming in Oakland.

 
Bilal Powell will be moving up

when he gets the touches he produces.  Forte is done.  Powell is the starter in New York and the masses will start to catch on.

 
Doctson given we don't know who the team's WR1 is and the value split between he and Pryor is much farther in Pryor's favor than it should be.

Currently Wallace and Perriman are pretty tightly packed, that should widen with one going up a bit (probably Perriman) at the expense of the other.

Rookies with buzz like Taywan Taylor and Evan Engram.

People will realize they can get a WR1 for a "play from behind" team at WR50 and Enuwa and Woods (or Kupp) will go up. 

I think Woodhead, Gore, and Riddick will go down due to the lack of excitement over them (low upside) and Derrick Henry and Jonathon Williams will go up as potentially league winning handcuffs (high upside).

I think both Denv WR could go down given the potential QB struggles.

I think West, Kelley, and Hill are valued at their downside and can only go up. Similarly people will realize they can get a whole month worth of starts out of Quizz Rodgers for a late pick.

I'm expecting ASJ to be startable this year but the stigma + extension might mean he stays undrafted in most redraft leagues.

I think the big 3 rookie WR will all drop since it will be pretty hard for them to make an early impact.

 
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beerbuff said:
Marshawn Lynch, moving up. Besides having been out of football and his age, he wasn't looking like a beast when he last played but his adp is on a upwards trajectory and being hyped like he's the second coming in Oakland.
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Lynch is already up to pick #17 in standard #20 in standard. If he rumbles in a preseason game, you are right he probably move a tiny bit, but I have a hard time seeing a 31 year old RB with 2100 career rushes coming out of retirement and being worth the risk of a borderline first pick. Is there a chance he looks sluggish in preseason or we see Richard/Washington get more 1st team touches than expected and Lynch falls?

abbottjamesr said:
Martavis Bryant's ADP is going to go through the roof during training camp as he continues to make impressive catches. 
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He has already moved into the 4th round so there has to be a point where people say the risk of getting popped again is too much to justify him. The group of WRs right in front  of him is Demaryius, Sammy, Hill, Keenan and Davantae Adams. I could see Bryant passing one or two of those guys, but would be surprised if he moves to the front of that pack. 

I think Marvin Jones is extremely undervalued currently and I hope he doesn't go up in value but expect people to see he is the WR1 on that team and his ADP to rise to 7 round levels.
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Based on what? He got up to early round 6 last year since he had this unknown potential in Detroit. 2016 showed Tate was still the WR1 and Jones finished as a WR4. My guess is people are bored with Jones and he doesn't move much (which makes him a screaming value in round 9 or 10)

I could see John Browns ADP rising if he is healthy during camp.
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That might be the best call of the thread. Brown is the 42nd WR being drafted. If he seems healthy (although he already has a tweaked hammy) and Palmer looks ok in preseason, Brown has to move up. Last year was a disaster with Palmer slipping and Brown battling injury/illness all year, but in 2015 Brown had 100+ targets, 1000 yards and 7 TDs. He is young and could still be ascending. Actually that whole group of WRs going in the 40s are really undervalued: Brown, Maclin, Decker, Cobb, Garcon and Meredith. I wouldn't be surprised if half of those 6 players finished as WR2s. 

 
bostonfred said:
 A Murray injury would make him a second round pick and maybe a late first.  News that he was going to increase his role would make him a 3rd/4th.
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Yeah, that is why I said excluding new injuries since it's unpredictable and could have insane consequences on any player. If Murray were to be lost for the season, Henry likely goes right where Murray is going now, but we could say the same thing for Tevin Coleman if Freeman were lost. The second part is more interesting. You might just be right too. I see Adrian Peterson, Ty Montgomery and Doug Martin are all 4th rounders right now. I have to imagine Henry would be right in that mix if there were enough stories indicating Murray was going to be featured more. 

 
spider321 said:
Every future post in this thread:

Risers - Guys on my fantasy team

Fallers - Guys not on my fantasy team
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I was going to dispute this, but you're probably right. I think that Carlos Hyde's value is going to rise when everyone realizes that he's going to get all the 1st team reps and that Joe Williams and that other guy are just his backups.

Some other risers: 

  • Eddie Lacy - If he gets most of the first team reps and meets weight goals.
  • A Rams WR - No idea who, but some WR will do well in preseason and become an actual draftable asset
  • Jonathan Stewart - When CMC doesn't get the majority of carries, JStew's stock will rise.
Some fallers:

  • OJ Howard (on my team) - He's being overdrafted, rookie TEs usually suck.
  • Eddie Lacy - If he doesn't meet weight goals
  • Andrew Luck - If he still hasn't thrown, he might fall even more than he has.
 
steelers1080 said:
I was going to dispute this, but you're probably right. I think that Carlos Hyde's value is going to rise when everyone realizes that he's going to get all the 1st team reps and that Joe Williams and that other guy are just his backups.

Some other risers: 

  • Eddie Lacy - If he gets most of the first team reps and meets weight goals.
  • A Rams WR - No idea who, but some WR will do well in preseason and become an actual draftable asset
  • Jonathan Stewart - When CMC doesn't get the majority of carries, JStew's stock will rise.
Some fallers:

  • OJ Howard (on my team) - He's being overdrafted, rookie TEs usually suck.
  • Eddie Lacy - If he doesn't meet weight goals
  • Andrew Luck - If he still hasn't thrown, he might fall even more than he has.
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I like Eddie Lacy on both lists. If he meets his goals and gets the majority first team reps, he is a 2nd-3rd round pick, right? 

OJ Howard is grossly over drafted. I have no idea what people are thinking for redraft there.

Luck (and with him all of the Indy offense) could plummet if he isn't throwing in camp and doesn't play by preaseason week 3. 

I disagree with JStew. There couldn't possibly be a more boring player for fantasy football. There isn't anybody that is excited about this guy. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Based on what? He got up to early round 6 last year since he had this unknown potential in Detroit. 2016 showed Tate was still the WR1 and Jones finished as a WR4. My guess is people are bored with Jones and he doesn't move much (which makes him a screaming value in round 9 or 10)
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FWIW, I don't expect him to be a riser, but I do think he'll be a great value. Have a look at #10 here.

Jones' injury last year has been conflated with a lack of talent and that equals value for fantasy owners.
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The injury to Jones last year plus the injury to Stafford's hand led to quite a drop in production, but if he's healthy this year I think he can easily improve on last year's stats and become a fantasy WR2.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Doctson given we don't know who the team's WR1 is and the value split between he and Pryor is much farther in Pryor's favor than it should be.

Currently Wallace and Perriman are pretty tightly packed, that should widen with one going up a bit (probably Perriman) at the expense of the other.

Rookies with buzz like Taywan Taylor and Evan Engram.

People will realize they can get a WR1 for a "play from behind" team at WR50 and Enuwa and Woods (or Kupp) will go up. 

I think Woodhead, Gore, and Riddick will go down due to the lack of excitement over them (low upside) and Derrick Henry and Jonathon Williams will go up as potentially league winning handcuffs (high upside).

I think both Denv WR could go down given the potential QB struggles.

I think West, Kelley, and Hill are valued at their downside and can only go up. Similarly people will realize they can get a whole month worth of starts out of Quizz Rodgers for a late pick.

I'm expecting ASJ to be startable this year but the stigma + extension might mean he stays undrafted in most redraft leagues.

I think the big 3 rookie WR will all drop since it will be pretty hard for them to make an early impact.
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Agreed at least somewhat with each of these picks, but I think Wallace is the better pick between the Ravens, whether his ADP increases or not.

Taylor should soar in dynasty but in redraft, I just don't think it can get that high.  He could become a more hyped "sleeper" .

:yes:   to Enunwa.  Agreed on Woods too.  Along the same lines, Kenny Britt should climb up from the 13th round.  I own him nowhere but may go shopping soon.  Actually thinking about it fora minute, Woods and Britt are among my top targets to acquire.  

 Decker should go higher than the 9th round.

Tannehill seems really low as the 24th QB.   Not a starter in most leagues but one of the better backups or part of a QBBC.

Is OJ Howard really going before Ebron, Doyle and Ertz in redraft?  Doyle is understandable even if a mistake but there's simply no way OJ should be TE11 in redraft.  Dyno, sure.  

Along the same lines, Corey Davis is about 10 spots too high.  Mike WIlliams should fall further.  And I'm avoiding Ross in redraft entirely (normal leagues).  

and yes to Carlos Hyde.  he should be a low end RB1.

ETA:  guys I own, guys I don't

 
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FF Ninja said:
FWIW, I don't expect him to be a riser, but I do think he'll be a great value. Have a look at #10 here.

The injury to Jones last year plus the injury to Stafford's hand led to quite a drop in production, but if he's healthy this year I think he can easily improve on last year's stats and become a fantasy WR2.
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I agree with this take. I just think the general fantasy community is bored with Marvin. He's had a couple years where people had high expectations and he has never delivered. Fantasy owners usually move on at that point. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I agree with this take. I just think the general fantasy community is bored with Marvin. He's had a couple years where people had high expectations and he has never delivered. Fantasy owners usually move on at that point. 
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I sure hope your right and he has a quiet pre-season.  He has WR1 upside if he and Stafford can both stay healthy.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I sure hope your right and he has a quiet pre-season.  He has WR1 upside if he and Stafford can both stay healthy.
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? Any more than 32 other receivers have wr1 upside? I just don't see it with Jones.  He sure hasn't shown consistency.

 
-OZ- said:
? Any more than 32 other receivers have wr1 upside? I just don't see it with Jones.  He sure hasn't shown consistency.
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Yes, I think he has a more reasonable chance of being a top 12 FF wide receiver than many of the WR's drafted ahead of him assuming no injuries.  

He is on a pass first team that also has a porous defense.  He has shown that he has the talent to be a true #1 option on his team.  Assuming Detroit throws the ball 600 times again this year he could see 20% of the targets and post a 75/1250/9 year which would be solid WR1 area.  His pace last year for the first 7 games was 75/1424/9.  

 
abbottjamesr said:
Yes, I think he has a more reasonable chance of being a top 12 FF wide receiver than many of the WR's drafted ahead of him assuming no injuries.  

He is on a pass first team that also has a porous defense.  He has shown that he has the talent to be a true #1 option on his team.  Assuming Detroit throws the ball 600 times again this year he could see 20% of the targets and post a 75/1250/9 year which would be solid WR1 area.  His pace last year for the first 7 games was 75/1424/9.  
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I don't see it. His pace last year was heavily tilted by an absurd week 3 where he had a  200 yard 2 TD game. One of those TDs was like a 30 yarder where nobody covered him.

He looked like the 2nd coming of AJ Green-Odell Beckham in that game, but like Dorial Green Beckham the rest of the year. After that week 3 explosion, he never topped 10 standard fantasy points again the rest of the year. He had three 1 catch games. 

 
So for risers and fallers... well, I'll try to stay away from guys in the first 2-3 rounds for risers because there's only so far they can rise and I'll avoid guys going late in the fallers because they're already irrelevant. There are guys that I think should rise or fall, but won't actually so I won't list them. Only the guys I think have the best shot at large movement one way or another. This usually requires some media hype and some flash.

Risers

  • This is lame but whoever seems to be grasping the GB job.Things could really shake around, akin to New England when they signed Burkhead - I read he was going in the 5th in some mocks - and then later signed Gillislee. Right now Ty (RB18) is Burkhead. Once preseason gets going, I could see a massive shift if Jamaal Williams (RB52) is getting early down work (and looking good) and Ty is splitting pass catching situations with Aaron Jones (undrafted ADP). I'm guessing Jamaal scores some preseason TDs and sees an ADP jump. As players I like all three, but I think Jamaal's pass protection and running style fit the offense the best. Receiving is his weakest aspect, but with 3WR + Martellus, I think they'll value pass blocking and running between the tackles more from the RB position than pass catching (which he's not actually bad at).
  • Perine (RB36) - when he runs away with that job (sorry, I'm not buying the RBBC with Rob) his ADP will jump quite a bit.
  • Perkins (RB28) - I'm not a fan, but if he makes a splash in the preseason, the hype will be on, especially if the phrase "3 down back" is used often.
  • Abdullah (RB23) - he's a flashy player. All it will take is a couple crazy plays and he'll be all over ESPN/NFLN. 
  • Dixon (RB39) - he's got an outside shot at being a riser due to the low ADP (however, the suspension will dampen it greatly) but I expect him to outshine West and Woodhead in the preseason (he's got more to prove and more trust to earn back from the coaches).
  • I agree with the John Brown (WR43) mention by others. He had two debilitating issues going on last year, but rightfully had a lot of hype the past two pre/offseasons.
  • On that same note, I think Jaron Brown (undrafted ADP) will be starting opposite him in the Floyd role. If he comes out starting the preseason games and has a few catches, people will start to pay attention. Nothing crazy but from undrafted to WR60 is possible.
  • Carolina WR2. Sorry, ambiguous, I know. Ginn is gone, vacating 95 targets. Corey Brown vacates 53. Funchess is currently WR82. Curtis Samuel is WR68. Charles Johnson and Russell Shepard are undrafted. I like Kelvin ok, but don't think he's a true WR1, so whoever wins that WR2 job in camp will have value if they are an improvement over Ginn. My personal guess would be Shepard (most good press thus far).
  • Kevin White (WR55) - he's got a good rapport with Glennon and that draft pedigree. Right or wrong, a nice TD grab or a long bomb in preseason and he's skyrocketing up draft boards.
  • Josh Doctson (WR50) - same logic as with White. Draft pedigree + total unknown + one big play = hype.
Fallers

  • It takes something pretty drastic for a guy to drop more than a few spots so this will probably be a short list...
  • From the GB mention above, I think Ty Montgomery sees a steep decline in ADP if anyone else seems to be eating into this job. It's the preseason, so someone will almost certainly shine and get media hype, thus I think this drop is a given.
  • McCaffrey (RB14) - I feel like rookie hype is the only thing keeping him floating. If Stewart sees enough time in the preseason and Newton doesn't throw CM many passes, people will get nervous. 
  • Ingram (RB24) - if AP comes out the gates looking good, it'll scare people away from Ingram. Same thing if Kamara looks good, but to a lesser extent.
  • Miller (RB12) - how is this guy still going so high? I don't like Foreman, but if he looks good against second/third teamers in the preseason, he'll probably get a bump from RB64 and Miller will plummet. 
 
-OZ- said:
Tannehill seems really low as the 24th QB.   Not a starter in most leagues but one of the better backups or part of a QBBC.
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Based on what? He has been in the league for 5 years, so it seems unlikely he will take a big step forward this year. He was outside the top 20 in ppg last season with a new coach and offense. That offense was #31 in passing attempts, and the team was reasonably successful, winning 10 games, so the formula seems unlikely to change significantly.

Where would you have Tannehill ranked?

 
Just Win Baby said:
Based on what? He has been in the league for 5 years, so it seems unlikely he will take a big step forward this year. He was outside the top 20 in ppg last season with a new coach and offense. That offense was #31 in passing attempts, and the team was reasonably successful, winning 10 games, so the formula seems unlikely to change significantly.

Where would you have Tannehill ranked?
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Tannehill has been a fine QB2 during his career, some seasons even finishing in the top 12. I'd consider him a top 20 QB for the season. I agree QB24 is a little too low for him.

 
MattFancy said:
Tannehill has been a fine QB2 during his career, some seasons even finishing in the top 12. I'd consider him a top 20 QB for the season. I agree QB24 is a little too low for him.
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The reason Tannehill is so low is because he has no upside. As @Just Win Baby points out, we have seen what Tannehill is and it's totally replaceable. He may have be a safer bet to finish QB15-20 than guys going ahead of him (Watson,Wentz, Palmer) but he also doesn't have the potential ceiling that they do- even if for some of them that ceiling is just based on the unknown. Why take Tannehill when Bortles is out there at the same price? Bortles is bad, but he did have a season as a top 5 fantasy QB so at least we know there is some kind of potential if the situation breaks right (or wrong in Jax case). 

 
MattFancy said:
Just Win Baby said:
Based on what? He has been in the league for 5 years, so it seems unlikely he will take a big step forward this year. He was outside the top 20 in ppg last season with a new coach and offense. That offense was #31 in passing attempts, and the team was reasonably successful, winning 10 games, so the formula seems unlikely to change significantly.

Where would you have Tannehill ranked?
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Tannehill has been a fine QB2 during his career, some seasons even finishing in the top 12. I'd consider him a top 20 QB for the season. I agree QB24 is a little too low for him.
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I just checked 2 of my dynasty leagues, since they have persistent data going back 5 years. Here is where Tannehill ranked in ppg:

League 1 (no penalties for turnovers):

  • 2016 - #22 (19.188 ppg)
  • 2015 - #24 (20.619 ppg)
  • 2014 - #12 (21.816 ppg)
  • 2013 - #19 (20.097 ppg)
  • 2012 - #31 (15.550 ppg) 
League 2 (6 pt TDs, pts per first down rushing, penalties for turnovers):

  • 2016 - #21 (17.945 ppg)
  • 2015 - #23 (19.337 ppg)
  • 2014 - #11 (21.344 ppg)
  • 2013 - #21 (17.895 ppg)
  • 2012 - #33 (12.947 ppg)
It seems reasonable to ignore 2012, since he was a rookie, and a rather inexperienced one at that. But he has 4 other seasons, and, at this point, 2014 has to be viewed as an outlier. At minimum, the bolded is overstating things.

IMO the most important thing is the one data point for the new coach and offense. They were very successful last season - their best record since 2008. And they did that with the second lowest number of passing attempts in the league. I'm sure their passing attempts could go up some, but they have a ways to go to even get to league average.

Anyway, which of these QBs would you rank below Tannehill for this season?

  1. Rodgers
  2. Brady
  3. Luck
  4. Brees
  5. Wilson
  6. Newton
  7. Ryan
  8. Cousins
  9. Mariota
  10. Winston
  11. Carr
  12. Stafford
  13. Rivers
  14. Roethlisberger
  15. Palmer
  16. Taylor
  17. Bortles
  18. Prescott
  19. Wentz
  20. Dalton
  21. Eli
  22. Bradford
  23. Flacco
  24. Smith
  25. Siemian
  26. Watson
As @Ilov80s said, there just doesn't seem to be enough upside to rank him above more than a few of these guys. He may warrant slotting in around #20-22, but there isn't much difference between most of the bottom 10 or so of these QBs.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I just checked 2 of my dynasty leagues, since they have persistent data going back 5 years. Here is where Tannehill ranked in ppg:

League 1 (no penalties for turnovers):

  • 2016 - #22 (19.188 ppg)
  • 2015 - #24 (20.619 ppg)
  • 2014 - #12 (21.816 ppg)
  • 2013 - #19 (20.097 ppg)
  • 2012 - #31 (15.550 ppg) 
League 2 (6 pt TDs, pts per first down rushing, penalties for turnovers):

  • 2016 - #21 (17.945 ppg)
  • 2015 - #23 (19.337 ppg)
  • 2014 - #11 (21.344 ppg)
  • 2013 - #21 (17.895 ppg)
  • 2012 - #33 (12.947 ppg)
It seems reasonable to ignore 2012, since he was a rookie, and a rather inexperienced one at that. But he has 4 other seasons, and, at this point, 2014 has to be viewed as an outlier. At minimum, the bolded is overstating things.

IMO the most important thing is the one data point for the new coach and offense. They were very successful last season - their best record since 2008. And they did that with the second lowest number of passing attempts in the league. I'm sure their passing attempts could go up some, but they have a ways to go to even get to league average.

Anyway, which of these QBs would you rank below Tannehill for this season?

  1. Rodgers
  2. Brady
  3. Luck
  4. Brees
  5. Wilson
  6. Newton
  7. Ryan
  8. Cousins
  9. Mariota
  10. Winston
  11. Carr
  12. Stafford
  13. Rivers
  14. Roethlisberger
  15. Palmer
  16. Taylor
  17. Bortles
  18. Prescott
  19. Wentz
  20. Dalton
  21. Eli
  22. Bradford
  23. Flacco
  24. Smith
  25. Siemian
  26. Watson
As @Ilov80s said, there just doesn't seem to be enough upside to rank him above more than a few of these guys. He may warrant slotting in around #20-22, but there isn't much difference between most of the bottom 10 or so of these QBs.
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I'm guessing the 2nd year with gase/Christensen will be better for the offense. 

To clarify, I'm really not pushing him up far, but i'd take him over palmer, Taylor, bortles, everyone listed after Eli, and possibly dak/Wentz/dalton. On your list I'd push Eli to 15 and put tanny 16. I do agree there's a large group right there, but I have him towards the top of that tier. 

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I just checked 2 of my dynasty leagues, since they have persistent data going back 5 years. Here is where Tannehill ranked in ppg:

League 1 (no penalties for turnovers):

  • 2016 - #22 (19.188 ppg)
  • 2015 - #24 (20.619 ppg)
  • 2014 - #12 (21.816 ppg)
  • 2013 - #19 (20.097 ppg)
  • 2012 - #31 (15.550 ppg) 
League 2 (6 pt TDs, pts per first down rushing, penalties for turnovers):

  • 2016 - #21 (17.945 ppg)
  • 2015 - #23 (19.337 ppg)
  • 2014 - #11 (21.344 ppg)
  • 2013 - #21 (17.895 ppg)
  • 2012 - #33 (12.947 ppg)
It seems reasonable to ignore 2012, since he was a rookie, and a rather inexperienced one at that. But he has 4 other seasons, and, at this point, 2014 has to be viewed as an outlier. At minimum, the bolded is overstating things.

IMO the most important thing is the one data point for the new coach and offense. They were very successful last season - their best record since 2008. And they did that with the second lowest number of passing attempts in the league. I'm sure their passing attempts could go up some, but they have a ways to go to even get to league average.

Anyway, which of these QBs would you rank below Tannehill for this season?

  1. Rodgers
  2. Brady
  3. Luck
  4. Brees
  5. Wilson
  6. Newton
  7. Ryan
  8. Cousins
  9. Mariota
  10. Winston
  11. Carr
  12. Stafford
  13. Rivers
  14. Roethlisberger
  15. Palmer
  16. Taylor
  17. Bortles
  18. Prescott
  19. Wentz
  20. Dalton
  21. Eli
  22. Bradford
  23. Flacco
  24. Smith
  25. Siemian
  26. Watson
As @Ilov80s said, there just doesn't seem to be much upside here.
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Siemian and Smith for certain.  I am not a big fan of Tannehill, but I think a reasonable argument can be made that he is primed for a breakout season.  This was an interesting take by Mike Tagliere:

Prior to getting hurt, Tannehill seemed to be getting new head coach Adam Gase's system down. In the five games prior to injury, he totaled 224 passing yards per game while completing 71 percent of his passes with a 11:5 touchdown to interception ratio. He also added 18 rushing yards per game, which amounts to 17.1 fantasy points per game. That would have been the No. 13 quarterback in points per game in 2016, right in between Marcus Mariota and Cam Newton.
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As I say, I personally am not particularly high on Tannehill, and I still have Tannehill ranked as my #20 QB for this season, just ahead of Blake Bortles.  He has the supporting cast around him to do better, and I believe in Adam Gase, so it would not be a surprise at all to see Tannehill outperform my projections.

 
socrates said:
Prior to getting hurt, Tannehill seemed to be getting new head coach Adam Gase's system down. In the five games prior to injury, he totaled 224 passing yards per game while completing 71 percent of his passes with a 11:5 touchdown to interception ratio. He also added 18 rushing yards per game, which amounts to 17.1 fantasy points per game. That would have been the No. 13 quarterback in points per game in 2016, right in between Marcus Mariota and Cam Newton.
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As I say, I personally am not particularly high on Tannehill, and I still have Tannehill ranked as my #20 QB for this season, just ahead of Blake Bortles.  He has the supporting cast around him to do better, and I believe in Adam Gase, so it would not be a surprise at all to see Tannehill outperform my projections.
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Good discussion here. Over the last 8 weeks of 2016, which includes those 5 games referenced above, he ranked #9 and #10 in ppg in the two leagues I mentioned previously. However, it was also a 5 game sample that was skewed somewhat because he had by far his best game of the season within that sample... his other 4 games in the sample would have placed him around #19. Choosing that 5 game sample also conveniently leaves out week 9, which was a poor performance.

Still, I can see a bit more reason for optimism than before this discussion. I could see ranking him in the bottom of the top 20, so perhaps 24th was indeed a bit low.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Good discussion here. Over the last 8 weeks of 2016, which includes those 5 games referenced above, he ranked #9 and #10 in ppg in the two leagues I mentioned previously. However, it was also a 5 game sample that was skewed somewhat because he had by far his best game of the season within that sample... his other 4 games in the sample would have placed him around #19. Choosing that 5 game sample also conveniently leaves out week 9, which was a poor performance.

Still, I can see a bit more reason for optimism than before this discussion. I could see ranking him in the bottom of the top 20, so perhaps 24th was indeed a bit low.
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:yes: I don't think anyone is taking him as their qb1 in normal leagues. And we're talking about a backup ff qb, but the last sentence is all I'm saying.  16-20ish.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Anyway, which of these QBs would you rank below Tannehill for this season?

  1. Rodgers
  2. Brady
  3. Luck
  4. Brees
  5. Wilson
  6. Newton
  7. Ryan
  8. Cousins
  9. Mariota
  10. Winston
  11. Carr
  12. Stafford
  13. Rivers
  14. Roethlisberger
  15. Palmer
  16. Taylor
  17. Bortles
  18. Prescott
  19. Wentz
  20. Dalton
  21. Eli
  22. Bradford
  23. Flacco
  24. Smith
  25. Siemian
  26. Watson
As @Ilov80s said, there just doesn't seem to be enough upside to rank him above more than a few of these guys. He may warrant slotting in around #20-22, but there isn't much difference between most of the bottom 10 or so of these QBs.
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I'd take Tannehill over Watson, Siemian, Flacco, Smith, Bradford, and Palmer for sure. I could see an argument for Wentz or Taylor over Tannehill.

 
Ilov80s said:
Only place I take Tannehill is in a draft master/best ball format
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or start 2QB. In any other format he is not rosterable and is WW fodder for streaming based on match up.

After week 5 of last season when Miami went run heavy he only averaged 29 attempts per game.  Just not enough volume to matter in FF.

 
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abbottjamesr said:
or start 2QB. In any other format he is not rosterable and is WW fodder for streaming based on match up.

After week 5 of last season when Miami went run heavy he only averaged 29 attempts per game.  Just not enough volume to matter in FF.
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Even then I would hope to take 2QBs ranked higher than Tanny. He's just got a decent floor for draftmaster.

 
MattFancy said:
I'd take Tannehill over Watson, Siemian, Flacco, Smith, Bradford, and Palmer for sure. I could see an argument for Wentz or Taylor over Tannehill.
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In a typical redraft league there is no reason at all to draft Tanny unless you think he's in for a career year and could be a top 6-8 QB.

 
What about the group of WR's that were top 12 picks last year but didn't pan out?  I could see Watkins, Allen, Robinson, and Hopkins all moving up ADP if this pre-season.  If watkins and Allen look healthy they are steals at their current ADP's.  I think we also forget how good Robinson and Hopkins were not long ago and they could both show up in the first pre-season games and boost their ADP's as well.

 
Ilov80s said:
In a typical redraft league there is no reason at all to draft Tanny unless you think he's in for a career year and could be a top 6-8 QB.
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Right, I never said he was a QB1. Just thought he was maybe a little too low at QB24. I think he ends up finishing in the top 20.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Just Win Baby said:
  1. Rodgers
  2. Brady
  3. Luck
  4. Brees
  5. Wilson
  6. Newton
  7. Ryan
  8. Cousins
  9. Mariota
  10. Winston
  11. Carr
  12. Stafford
  13. Rivers
  14. Roethlisberger
  15. Palmer
  16. Taylor
  17. Bortles
  18. Prescott
  19. Wentz
  20. Dalton
  21. Eli
  22. Bradford
  23. Flacco
  24. Smith
  25. Siemian
  26. Watson
Click to expand...


Just out of curiosity, where did this list come from?
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I just wrote the names out as I thought of them. It isn't specifically ordered, although generally I would say the top, middle, and bottom groups are roughly correct. The only point needed for the discussion was to figure out how many would be taken over Tannehill, and I would say most people would take most/all of the top 20 names here above him.

 
Ilov80s said:
Even then I would hope to take 2QBs ranked higher than Tanny. He's just got a decent floor for draftmaster.
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We're getting away from the point of the thread but if I know tanny will be available In the 9th I'll gladly wait and take him there.  He might be my 3rd by then buy I'd still take him higher than the list has him going. 

 
If Prescott is really going Qb8 right now I'd think he falls.  He did well but i just couldn't take him over Wilson, Ben, Mariota, Winston, and stafford. Maybe he doesn't "fall" from this adp but imo he should. 

 
Ilov80s said:
The reason Tannehill is so low is because he has no upside. As @Just Win Baby points out, we have seen what Tannehill is and it's totally replaceable. He may have be a safer bet to finish QB15-20 than guys going ahead of him (Watson,Wentz, Palmer) but he also doesn't have the potential ceiling that they do- even if for some of them that ceiling is just based on the unknown. Why take Tannehill when Bortles is out there at the same price? Bortles is bad, but he did have a season as a top 5 fantasy QB so at least we know there is some kind of potential if the situation breaks right (or wrong in Jax case). 
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This.

Tannehill is maddening to own.  One game he looks great and he throws for 300 and 3 scores......next game he blows chunks and puts up a 220/1/3 game....and the next game he plays good, but hands the ball off to Ajayi 30 times and throws it only 30 times.....and it's a 220/1 game.

He throws a crappy deep ball, and MIA has never allowed him to use his athleticism to add rushing yards to his fantasy stats.

Even though I think Bortles sucks, I would much rather gamble on him.  Much better chance of being a starting QB than Tannehill is.  As I have learned over the years, if a player only has upside to be a fantasy backup, you should just pass.....that player is a waste of draft resources.  Why not gamble on Wentz or Deshaun Watson.....or how about not drafting a second QB and going to the waiver wire to pick one up.....like Tannehill?

 
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