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T Hill...This year's C Patterson??? (1 Viewer)

S

Soaring Eagle

Footballguy
many of us overdrafted patterson after his tremendous rookie year in minnesota

he wasn't a polished receiver...he was the fastest player on the field and scored a ton of td's

he miserably flopped after being drafted in rounds 3/4 the following year

I feel this may be history repeating itself with t hill....yes they dropped maclin and he is the #1 wr in KC but i feel the risk is far too great for where he is being drafted and he is more likely to be a flop....

Does anyone agree or am i missing the boat???

 
Would I be surprised if he flopped like Patterson did? No. It's not the greatest stuation for WRs...

Would I be surprised if he took a step forward? No. Someone's got to catch some balls other than Kelce and the RBs. He does kind of fit the dink and dunk style.

In summary, I think he's well worth a flyer, but I suspect his ADP will be too high for my taste when I do my redrafts.

 
Soaring Eagle I think it is a fair question and I have wondered the same thing earlier on this offseason. 

However there is a pretty significant difference in what happened with Patterson and what will happen with Hill.

Patterson had a change of head coach and offensive coordinator after his rookie season. From Bill Musgrave to Norv Turner. Not to place all the blame on Norv, because Patterson dug his own hole. He got replaced by Charles Johnson at X WR and pretty much phased out of the offense because he wasn't running routes well enough for the QB or coaches to count on him. Also rookie Teddy Bridgewater did not seem to even look at Patterson when he was on the field (because Patterson was not running good routes) was part of it as well.

KC still has Andry Reid calling the shots and he has already said he has plans for Hill to be a big part of their offense. They released Maclin as another sign of their confidence in Hill and the rest of their WR. Zimmer and Norv did not feel this way about Patterson, they wanted to see him play better before being willing to give him more playing time.

So this is not similar at all.

I do think some of Hills plays from last season are unsustainable Isuch as fake punt run for a TD) and that bears some similarity to some of Pattersons big plays as a rookie. That could be similar in that those big plays may not be there, but Hill looks to be in line for more opportunity, even if he doesn't break off as many big plays or score as many TD he should put up similar numbers as last year, and possibly improve on them I think, due to getting more opportunity.

I have no idea what ADP looks like right now. I am guessing Hill is going pretty high and he may be a player whos ADP rises leading up to the season opener, I wouldn't want to take him earlier than the 5th round if that is what it will cost to get him (similar to Pattersons second season ADP) but I won't be trying to warn people to not draft Hill that high the way I was with Patterson.

 
Hill had a better rookie year than Patterson.

Hill: 860 yards from scrimmage, 9 offensive TDs, 7.1 yards per target, 2.3 yards per route run
Patterson: 627 yards per target, 7 offensive TDs, 6.1 yards per target, 1.6 yards per route run

Matt Harmon's Reception Perception stats also ranked Hill as one of the better WRs in the NFL at getting open, including on routes down the field.

 
There's a slight difference between the two, one can run routes, and one can't.  Also, Reid has talked about getting Hill more reps at #1 WR, while Patterson was always a gadget player.  Hill carries a lot of risk for how high he's being drafted in redraft.  His fantasy production will probably drop this year because his yards from scrimmage will go up, but he'll probably lose out on the special teams TDs if they really do pull him from Kickoff and Punt returns.

 
steelers1080 said:
There's a slight difference between the two, one can run routes, and one can't.  Also, Reid has talked about getting Hill more reps at #1 WR, while Patterson was always a gadget player.  Hill carries a lot of risk for how high he's being drafted in redraft.  His fantasy production will probably drop this year because his yards from scrimmage will go up, but he'll probably lose out on the special teams TDs if they really do pull him from Kickoff and Punt returns.
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Have they said he's not returning kicks?  That's huge if they do.  We get rtn stats in my league

 
need2know said:
Have they said he's not returning kicks?  That's huge if they do.  We get rtn stats in my league
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They said he won't return KO's, but so far he's still returning punts at this point as far as I know. It's worth noting that Reid has used DeSean Jackson as a WR1 and punt returner in the past so it may be more likely he'll continue to return punts even if he is the clear #1 WR.

 
Soaring Eagle said:
many of us overdrafted patterson after his tremendous rookie year in minnesota

he wasn't a polished receiver...he was the fastest player on the field and scored a ton of td's

he miserably flopped after being drafted in rounds 3/4 the following year

I feel this may be history repeating itself with t hill....yes they dropped maclin and he is the #1 wr in KC but i feel the risk is far too great for where he is being drafted and he is more likely to be a flop....

Does anyone agree or am i missing the boat???
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As others have pointed out Hill played better than Patterson did, people were just so high on Patterson because of the size to go with the speed. 

I was on the same page with you until KC dumped BOTH Charles and Maclin. Unless Spiller somehow rewinds the clock several years or Hunt explodes onto the scene, I think Hill will be forced to touch the ball in all phases of the game.

 
Wasn't Patterson a big knock that he wasn't a polished route runner and was too boneheaded to learn?  I don't think that is the situation with hill.  

 
I just acquired him as part of a deal in a dynasty, but admittedly I have some concerns about him transcending his "gadget player" role to take the next step. He obviously has speed and therefore huge upside but the Patterson comparison may not be far off. He is a far better route runner so that's a major plus in his potential development.

I don't know what his ADP is for redraft, but I do see him as a guy I'd most likely let some one else take if we're talking first five rounds - and if I miss out? sobeit. 

 
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Pros:

Electric in space, has elite speed/acceleration, quickness and burst,  showed well in Reception Perception, in position to be the 2nd target in KC and see his snaps increase, has lots of room for increased targets, on a per target basis was one of the most efficient fantasy WRs in the NFL

Cons:

Exceptionally small for an NFL WR, had very low air yards, very low yards per target and a high drop rate. Hill has a history of domestic violence. He he wasn't a good WR prospect considering he was very unproductive at a small college where you would assume an NFL WR1 should have been absolutely dominating inferior competition. He plays on a low volume, slow scoring offense.

Unsure:

7th in the league last year in RZ targets. That is awesome, but given his size and the low scoring, low volume offense that seems like an anomaly. The idea that he was 2nd in the NFL in fantasy points per target but was 68th in yards per target seems to indicate that he was very TD dependent. As we know, TDs can really vary and KC might not have a lot to go around. However, Alex Smith saw Hill as the guy to target in the RZ last year so maybe his TD pace can be replicated. 

 
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ZWK said:
Hill had a better rookie year than Patterson.

Hill: 860 yards from scrimmage, 9 offensive TDs, 7.1 yards per target, 2.3 yards per route run
Patterson: 627 yards per target, 7 offensive TDs, 6.1 yards per target, 1.6 yards per route run

Matt Harmon's Reception Perception stats also ranked Hill as one of the better WRs in the NFL at getting open, including on routes down the field.
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:shock:

I would not predict a regression for Hill based on Patterson's history.  Patterson was a notoriously bad route runner and reportedly lacked the work ethic needed to overcome his deficiencies.  Moreover, Norv Turner seemingly lacked the offensive creativity to get Patterson the ball in space.

Now that Patterson has moved on, and there are reports that he has been working on improving as a receiver, perhaps we should be asking if Patterson could be this year's Tyreek Hill?!

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Love him in dynasty, hate him in redraft.
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BigSteelThrill said:
He also might go bonkers once Pat Mahomes' strong arm hits the field. 
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Mahomes would be the primary reason to value him more in dynasty then redraft.  But the worry is Hill seemed to be a bit of a gadget guy last year, a manufactured touch guy, and I swore off investing heavily in those types of players in dynasty as value can change so dramatically on a coaching change.

Of course it's not fair to label Hill as nothing more than a gadget guy, it's what he was to a large extent last year but he was also a rookie.

All in all, for me, while I get the upside I'd rather invest in someone else at his current price, in all formats.

 
although hill was used in gadget plays, he still had use running conventional routes.  i think it's important to stress that.  he still needs work as a route runner, to be sure.  he also still can vastly outrun his QB's throwing range....at least for now. at this point, it looks like he's overvalued in redrafts.  in dynasties, i guess it all depends upon who owns him and what their opinion is.  if the guy isn't high on him long term, i think he's worth making a run at.

 
If you like Hill, you should take Cooks a round earlier and get the luxury model. Cooks has all the features you love about Tyreek Hiill, but with an extra year of WR2 awards from J.D. Power & Associates. Take all the things you don't like about Hill and throw them out, you get Cooks, Cooks is high character. Cooks was sick in college at a major program. Cooks plays with an elite NFL QB and a high scoring offense. 

 
Ilov80s said:
If you like Hill, you should take Cooks a round earlier and get the luxury model. Cooks has all the features you love about Tyreek Hiill, but with an extra year of WR2 awards from J.D. Power & Associates. Take all the things you don't like about Hill and throw them out, you get Cooks, Cooks is high character. Cooks was sick in college at a major program. Cooks plays with an elite NFL QB and a high scoring offense. 
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Or go crazy and get both back to back

 
Ilov80s said:
If you like Hill, you should take Cooks a round earlier and get the luxury model. Cooks has all the features you love about Tyreek Hiill, but with an extra year of WR2 awards from J.D. Power & Associates. Take all the things you don't like about Hill and throw them out, you get Cooks, Cooks is high character. Cooks was sick in college at a major program. Cooks plays with an elite NFL QB and a high scoring offense. 
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Excellent post.  I think you could also get an 8 round rebate on the brand new model that just rolled off the assembly line in the form of John Ross.  Ross may face some rookie inconsistency, but you can grab him in the 11th or 12th round.  Like Cooks, Ross is high character and produced elite numbers at a Pac-12 school.  With AJ Green and Tyler Eifert demanding the attention of defenses, Ross should have the luxury of facing single coverage in most formations, and that could spell some big games for the young speedster.

 
Ilov80s said:
If you like Hill, you should take Cooks a round earlier and get the luxury model. Cooks has all the features you love about Tyreek Hiill, but with an extra year of WR2 awards from J.D. Power & Associates. Take all the things you don't like about Hill and throw them out, you get Cooks, Cooks is high character. Cooks was sick in college at a major program. Cooks plays with an elite NFL QB and a high scoring offense. 
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YMMV. City mileage tended to be erratic during trials due to target intake from the OC. Models like the Gronk SUV and Edleman ST in the line can limit results for the Cooks model. Highway, works like a dream, but not completely ready to go all in until further tests are done. 

 
socrates said:
Excellent post.  I think you could also get an 8 round rebate on the brand new model that just rolled off the assembly line in the form of John Ross.  Ross may face some rookie inconsistency, but you can grab him in the 11th or 12th round.  Like Cooks, Ross is high character and produced elite numbers at a Pac-12 school.  With AJ Green and Tyler Eifert demanding the attention of defenses, Ross should have the luxury of facing single coverage in most formations, and that could spell some big games for the young speedster.
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That new model has been in the shop quite a bit but at the price tag, it's worth a spin around the block. That Bengals offense could be scary good- turning every D into a cabriolet. 

 
matttyl said:
So, if he doesn't meet expectations this year, and you don't own him in dynasty - the time to buy would be a year from now?
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I'm not sure about that. I already own him in dynasty and he is on my taxi squad, which to me is the ideal scenario. If he craps the bed this season, I'm not sure I'd be looking to buy next year. 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I'm not sure about that. I already own him in dynasty and he is on my taxi squad, which to me is the ideal scenario. If he craps the bed this season, I'm not sure I'd be looking to buy next year. 
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Then I'm not sure what you meant when you said you don't like him in redraft, but love him in dynasty.

 
Biabreakable said:
Soaring Eagle I think it is a fair question and I have wondered the same thing earlier on this offseason. 

However there is a pretty significant difference in what happened with Patterson and what will happen with Hill.

Patterson had a change of head coach and offensive coordinator after his rookie season. From Bill Musgrave to Norv Turner. Not to place all the blame on Norv, because Patterson dug his own hole. He got replaced by Charles Johnson at X WR and pretty much phased out of the offense because he wasn't running routes well enough for the QB or coaches to count on him. Also rookie Teddy Bridgewater did not seem to even look at Patterson when he was on the field (because Patterson was not running good routes) was part of it as well.

KC still has Andry Reid calling the shots and he has already said he has plans for Hill to be a big part of their offense. They released Maclin as another sign of their confidence in Hill and the rest of their WR. Zimmer and Norv did not feel this way about Patterson, they wanted to see him play better before being willing to give him more playing time.

So this is not similar at all.

I do think some of Hills plays from last season are unsustainable Isuch as fake punt run for a TD) and that bears some similarity to some of Pattersons big plays as a rookie. That could be similar in that those big plays may not be there, but Hill looks to be in line for more opportunity, even if he doesn't break off as many big plays or score as many TD he should put up similar numbers as last year, and possibly improve on them I think, due to getting more opportunity.

I have no idea what ADP looks like right now. I am guessing Hill is going pretty high and he may be a player whos ADP rises leading up to the season opener, I wouldn't want to take him earlier than the 5th round if that is what it will cost to get him (similar to Pattersons second season ADP) but I won't be trying to warn people to not draft Hill that high the way I was with Patterson.
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I think this was a very well written response

I just have heard hill doesn't really know a lot of the routes...Patterson was going 3/4 turn in the late drafts that year, I see hill sneaking up to late 4th already...one preseason 80 yd td and he will be drafted in the 3rd

 
If everyone is fading Hill on draft day, I will be buying...this coming from someone who owned Patterson in every league, though I don't see many similarities in the two other than the typecast "gadget player" moniker. Hill's skills as a receiver far surpass what Patterson had. 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Ok.  Don't know what to tell you. 
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I'm trying to figure out what you meant.  You said you don't like him in redraft (meaning I assume you don't think he'll live up to expectation this year).  But you also said you love him in dynasty, meaning I assume you think he'll do much better in future years than he will this year. 

If you put those two together - wouldn't it make sense to buy after this year when he doesn't live up to expectation (and hopefully the price is lower)?

 
matttyl said:
I'm trying to figure out what you meant.  You said you don't like him in redraft (meaning I assume you don't think he'll live up to expectation this year).  But you also said you love him in dynasty, meaning I assume you think he'll do much better in future years than he will this year. 

If you put those two together - wouldn't it make sense to buy after this year when he doesn't live up to expectation (and hopefully the price is lower)?
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Gotcha. What I meant is that his redraft price is probably too high for my liking and I'm not super confident he'll continue to get better nor am I sure how he'll perform as the #1 WR on his team, hence I hate him in redraft. However, I drafted him as a rookie in dynasty and he is currently on my taxi squad. Since I invested very little and I can keep him on taxi squad another 2 years to 'wait and see'... I love him in dynasty. 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Gotcha. What I meant is that his redraft price is probably too high for my liking and I'm not super confident he'll continue to get better nor am I sure how he'll perform as the #1 WR on his team, hence I hate him in redraft. However, I drafted him as a rookie in dynasty and he is currently on my taxi squad. Since I invested very little and I can keep him on taxi squad another 2 years to 'wait and see'... I love him in dynasty. 
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So really, you like him "for what you paid for him" because in a dynasty startup, or acquiring him in trade today, he'd likely be more expensive than even redraft due to his youth.

 
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Rhythmdoctor said:
Gotcha. What I meant is that his redraft price is probably too high for my liking and I'm not super confident he'll continue to get better nor am I sure how he'll perform as the #1 WR on his team, hence I hate him in redraft. However, I drafted him as a rookie in dynasty and he is currently on my taxi squad. Since I invested very little and I can keep him on taxi squad another 2 years to 'wait and see'... I love him in dynasty. 
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Now I'm following.  I don't do much if any redraft stuff, it's all dynasty here.  I guess I wasn't thinking about different prices for him with that statement of yours. 

 
Great question and also comparison.  Dorial Green-Beckham is also another comparison you could make based on pre pre-season hype.  I'll take a different slant in this though.

Last year, Jeremy Maclin was coming off a very solid year (85/1088/8) in 2015.  By FFC ADP, Maclin, a fairly proven WR, was being drafted as WR22.  Right now, Hill via FFC is being drafted as WR20.  This despite the fact that a Travis Kelce clearly emerged as the #1 target in KC...and he's still there.

And while I appreciate some of the comments related to Andy Reid and KC's commitment to Hill as their WR1, Reid historically has been a coach who struggled to establish a one.  Consider that in his 18 seasons as an HC, he's had 12 different leading receivers (yards) and he LOVES using the RB as a passing game weapon.  When you bring that together with the low volume #'s of KC's passing attack...I think Hill is a risky investment in dynasty as well, and certainly redraft.

i think a viable/legitimate comparison to Hill is Taylor Gabriel sans ST prowess.

 
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Soaring Eagle said:
I think this was a very well written response

I just have heard hill doesn't really know a lot of the routes...Patterson was going 3/4 turn in the late drafts that year, I see hill sneaking up to late 4th already...one preseason 80 yd td and he will be drafted in the 3rd
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I still don't know very much about Hill. I have only watched some highlights of him and he wasn't a player I evaluated prior to him entering the NFL.

So for me he is more of a pass due to lack of information. He could be great though, I don't really know.

Where did your hear/read that Hill doesn't run many different routes?

I think discussing that could be helpful to everyone. Maybe there are more flaws with Hill than a lot of us know?

 
Biabreakable said:
I still don't know very much about Hill. I have only watched some highlights of him and he wasn't a player I evaluated prior to him entering the NFL.

So for me he is more of a pass due to lack of information. He could be great though, I don't really know.

Where did your hear/read that Hill doesn't run many different routes?

I think discussing that could be helpful to everyone. Maybe there are more flaws with Hill than a lot of us know?
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His biggest flaw as a prospect was that he didn't do much in college. You would think having went to a small school like West Alabama that he would have dominated the clearly inferior athletes he is playing against. He was a gadget player in West Alabama but he did do very well as a returner. Counting the return TDs, he scored 8 TDs in his age 21 season. 

 
Ilov80s said:
His biggest flaw as a prospect was that he didn't do much in college. You would think having went to a small school like West Alabama that he would have dominated the clearly inferior athletes he is playing against. He was a gadget player in West Alabama but he did do very well as a returner. Counting the return TDs, he scored 8 TDs in his age 21 season. 
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This explains why he is still a bit of an unknown for me. He did play for Oaklahoma in 2014. Was used more as a runner than as a reciever (better efficiency stats as a receiver).  He was a good returner that season. I watched a ton of players in 2014 but Hill was not one of them..

Then he had to transfer to West Alabama due to domestic abuse charges that caused Oaklahoma State to release him. He didn't really do that much for them as you mention, but he was good as a returner again.

It is kind of a mess trying to put these numbers together to add to the evaluation for him.

 
Biabreakable said:
This explains why he is still a bit of an unknown for me. He did play for Oaklahoma in 2014. Was used more as a runner than as a reciever (better efficiency stats as a receiver).  He was a good returner that season. I watched a ton of players in 2014 but Hill was not one of them..

Then he had to transfer to West Alabama due to domestic abuse charges that caused Oaklahoma State to release him. He didn't really do that much for them as you mention, but he was good as a returner again.

It is kind of a mess trying to put these numbers together to add to the evaluation for him.
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What percentage of players that have finished as a WR1-2 for >1 NFL season were also such lowly college players? Honest question 

 
Biabreakable said:
I don't really know. I generally only pay attention to college players who were productive.
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That could be a good place to start. Since you have been tracking productive college players, what WRs went unscouted by you and still had multiple years of WR success? What names come to your mind?

 
Ilov80s said:
That could be a good place to start. Since you have been tracking productive college players, what WRs went unscouted by you and still had multiple years of WR success? What names come to your mind?
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No one comes to mind aside from Hill having a good NFL season last year. There likely are some others, but none that I can think of right now. Perhaps @ZWK or someone could answer that question better than me.

There are a lot of productive college players who do not do well in the NFL, so that is no guarantee for success at the NFL level. It is definitely a big step for a player from college to the pro game. I think also a similar step from division 2 productivity to division 1 production as well, perhaps not as steep, but it is another level of competition. This makes trying to combine Hills division 1 stats with the division 2 stats problematic, as far as trying to increase the sample size. I don't really feel comfortable with doing that.

At West Alabama 6 other players had more rushing attempts than Hill. Hill had the 3rd most rushing yards. His 9.5 ypc is significantly better than the other rushers, but it was only 25 attempts, so a couple big runs really skewing that total. I would say that this comparison shows that he is a division 1 talent. He was not nearly as good running the ball for Oaklahoma State though, against a higher level of competition.

As a receiver Hill was also significantly more productive with WAlabama than Oaklahoma State. 16.4 ypr compared to 9.1 on similar number of receptions (27 to 31) so I think that indicates the difference in competition level as well between the two college division levels. Hill didn't have the most receptions for WAlabama, but he was their most effective WR.

Again I don't feel comfortable with combining these stats because of their differences.

 
Biabreakable said:
No one comes to mind aside from Hill having a good NFL season last year. There likely are some others, but none that I can think of right now. Perhaps @ZWK or someone could answer that question better than me.

There are a lot of productive college players who do not do well in the NFL, so that is no guarantee for success at the NFL level. It is definitely a big step for a player from college to the pro game. I think also a similar step from division 2 productivity to division 1 production as well, perhaps not as steep, but it is another level of competition. This makes trying to combine Hills division 1 stats with the division 2 stats problematic, as far as trying to increase the sample size. I don't really feel comfortable with doing that.

At West Alabama 6 other players had more rushing attempts than Hill. Hill had the 3rd most rushing yards. His 9.5 ypc is significantly better than the other rushers, but it was only 25 attempts, so a couple big runs really skewing that total. I would say that this comparison shows that he is a division 1 talent. He was not nearly as good running the ball for Oaklahoma State though, against a higher level of competition.

As a receiver Hill was also significantly more productive with WAlabama than Oaklahoma State. 16.4 ypr compared to 9.1 on similar number of receptions (27 to 31) so I think that indicates the difference in competition level as well between the two college division levels. Hill didn't have the most receptions for WAlabama, but he was their most effective WR.

Again I don't feel comfortable with combining these stats because of their differences.
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I cant say anything specific, it just jumps out to me that at 21, a guy with elite NFL speed, quickness and burst was such a minor piece of a tiny college football program's offense. Now, it jumps out to me that for as many players as you scout, you can't think of a comp here for Hill. I am very interested to hear from @ZWK here. 

 
By my numbers, the least productive FBS receivers who entered the league since 2006 and have had some NFL success are:

Josh Gordon (best season at Baylor: 42/714/7 in 13 games)
Michael Thomas (best season at Ohio State: 56/781/9 in 13 games)
Doug Baldwin (best season at Stanford: 58/857/9 receiving + 3/39/0 rushing in 13 games)
Martavis Bryant (best season at Clemson: 42/828/7 in 13 games)

There are also 7 guys who weren't FBS receivers who have had some NFL success at WR, college QBs Julian Edelman & Terrelle Pryor and 5 non-FBS receivers:

Marques Colston (best season at Hofstra: 70/975/9 in 11 games)
Miles Austin (best season at Monmouth: 49/1004/11 in 8 games)
Pierre Garcon (best season at Mount Union: 67/955/14 receiving + 11/61/2 rushing in 14 games)
Victor Cruz (best season at UMass: 76/1064/6 in 12 games)
John Brown (best season at Pittsburg State: 61/1216/12 receiving + 18/92/3 rushing in 14 games)

So Tyreek Hill's college production was worse than any of them, except the quarterbacks.

 
As a Hill owner, the more I delve into the stats, the more disgusted I am about how similar Hill's production is/was to Patterson's rookie year. Patterson had 9 TD's his rookie year, while Hill had 11 TD's.  19 of Patterson's 45 receptions were thrown behind the line of scrimmage (42%). 19 were 1-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. For Hill 24/61 were behind the line (39%) and 25/61 were between 1 and 10 yards (41%). The usage is basically identical.

Hill is no longer returning kicks, which is less opportunities to score TD's.

I haven't seen enough to say Hill is a better route runner than Patterson. However, I do believe he has much better hands and is better in contested catch situations. For that reason alone I think he has the ability to be a much better downfield receiver than Patterson could ever be. It also helps, for the coming season he is in a stable situation with a QB who prefers to dink and dunk.

 
Stats are the only aspect that makes these players similar.  Anybody who actually watches football knows Hill is a much better wide receiver.

 
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