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Qb value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
Where does this put the top 20 overall players in terms of scoring? Are the top 7 all QB's then followed by some RB's and WR's? Are there large gaps in QB scoring tiers or do they all go up someone together in points? The key is the relative value of the QB to the other positions as well as across the QB position itself. If there are no large gaps in QB scoring tiers and essentially the QB's are 1 or 2 ppg different moving down the list you won't be hurt by getting the 8th QB if he is only 2-3 ppg behind the top guy.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
6 point TD's don't interest me too much. It might justify the top 3 a bit more, giving them a little more separation over "the pack" but once you get down to it, there are still 5-10 QB's within a couple of PPG of each other and the delta from 5 to 15 just isn't worth the draft premium.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I play in a league that has all TDs 6 points and 50 yard TDs worth 7. I don't seen any change in value. It actually tends to make the low end QBs have more top 12 weeks than with 4 pt TDs.
Last season 18 QB's had at least 6 top 12 weekly performances. The most was Matt Ryan with 12 and two QB's at 11. There just isn't enough delta between QB1 and which ever is free at the end of the draft.
Over the last 3 yrs the average difference between the top QB and let's say number 8 QB is about 7 ppg
I don't think it is a huge difference to justify making any drastic changes in draft philosophy.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Delta from QB1 to QB8 in my league was 6.0. But that's not the key range. What is QB6 to QB20?
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
So with that being said am I crazy in thinking if you're not taking a top 3 QB you might as well just grab QB's off the waiver wire?
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
Those that spent a 12th on Matt Ryan last year did pretty well for themselves.
2015 Cam was the 11th qb taken finished #1
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Warhogs
Footballguy
I'm not sure we all believe this. I tend to try to get in on a QB earlier than most and grab an elite guy and I have been pretty successful in doing so.
I think an elite qb is practically mandatory nowadays. What I'm finding is that outside the top 4 players there isn't a lot of consistency when it comes to big weeks. A guy like Rodgers gives you almost a guaranteed 25 pts from the qb position. That is invaluable in my 6pt td league
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by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
I have been streaming qbs since last century and it works just fine for me. Any strategy can work in fantasy football as long as you know what you are doing and draft/pick up free agents correctly.
I agree. Generally speaking, nowadays, whoever gets the free agents usually wins. Every year it seems like some guys team is being driven through the playoffs by a spencer ware or rob kelley
For me last year I road Jordan Howard and Adam Thielen of all people
I'm just saying that I wouldn't downplay the leg up having Rodgers gives you over waiting until the end of the draft to take Eli Manning. That was over 100 points difference in our league last year. And if you look even closer at those stats Rodgers was consistent. Manning sucked and then put up a good game
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I don't think any of this is true.
1. Rodgers scored 25 pts in 69% of his games last season. While that was good its not vastly superior to other QB's. I use 23 points as my measure of a good QB week. That is a top 12 finish on average over the last three years. There were 10 QB's that had 50% of their starts result in top 12 weeks. Two were better than Rodgers and had ADPs that were later.
2. 6pt TD's just doesn't impact weekly top 12 finishes as expected.
3. Over the last 4 years their have been 11 QB finishes that have average 25 points per game over a season. They are below. The point is that using an early pick on a top QB is at best a 50/50 shot of getting a QB that is worth it.
- Rodgers 2016
- Ryan 2016
- Brees 2016
- Brady 2016
- Newton 2015
- Brady 2015
- Wilson 2015
- Luck 2014
- Rodgers 2014
- Manning 2013
- Brees 2013
* Brees gets special note here, he missed the cut off by 0.2 in 2015 and by 1.6 in 2014.
4. Streaming QB's in standard leagues can net you good enough play. QB's and Team Defenses are the easiest positions to predict on a weekly basis. This is mostly due to the large sample sizes of actions they make in a game. Most QB's will either drop back to pass or run with the ball 35-40 times a game. Their weekly production can be more easily predicted by using Vegas lines and opponent strengths.
All that being said, if you are in a snake draft and in the late fourth you don't like any of the RB's or WR's available grab an Brady or Rodgers is still there, I can see the temptation. Its not my style but I understand why you would do it.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
That is what is different now, it used to be taking a qb early meant round 1 or 2. Now sometimes the first ones go in the 4th or 5th. Different ball game completely.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Just to play devils advocate here; 3.3 points per game is still a significant advantage and perhaps more of an advantage than can be gained by drafting players at another position where the spread in PPG is smaller than this.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's a different discussion though. This is about the impact of changing from 4 to 6 points per passing touchdowns comparing QB6 to QB20. 3.3 PPG vs. 4 PPG (no decimals from OP) or 4.5 PPG from other poster was the (very rough) result.
edit: modeling 6 points per TD vs. 4 points per TD resulted in going from 21.8 - 18.6 (Cousins to Winston) for 3.2 PPG to 25.0 - 21.2 for 3.8 PPG (Cousins to Dalton) in one of my leagues.
The QB1 to QB8 drop was less precipitous than I thought. It ended up being 26.5 - 20.5 for 6.0 at 4 pt TD vs. 31.5 to 24.3 for 7.2 at 6 pt TD.
Easier to read
4 pt TD
QB6 21.8
QB20 18.6
diff 3.3
6 pt TD
QB6 25.0
QB20 21.2
diff 3.8
4 pt TD
QB1 26.5
QB8 20.5
diff 6.0
6 pt TD
QB1 31.5
QB8 24.3
diff 7.2
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
In the past I have considered tier breaks in 2 PPG incriments to be significant enough to separate players from the same position. Over 16 games 2 PPG = 32 points. It is a very marginal advantage, but its still an advantage.
All of these differentials are greater than 2 PPG and so should be reasonably considered for separation by tier.
On a pure points basis getting a 3 PPG advantage compared to anything less than that should help you win more games.
It is the starting requirements, scarcity and ADP that drives the why people will favor drafting other positions over QB that they may reasonably have projected to make a larger difference in PPG.
Add to that the unpredictability of QB performance, particularly TDs thrown as the main variable in scoring being considered here I can understand waiting on QBs and hoping you land lightning in a bottle with a later or pick, or steaming match ups if you don't.
For example Matt Ryan last season threw for 38 TD (career high) while in 2015 he only threw 21 TD (career average 28 TD excluding rookie season). It is a difference of being QB 2 in 2016 and QB 19 in 2015 (standard scoring 4 TD). and mostly driven by the TD difference that becomes more pronounced the more a QB scores for each TD pass, as shown by the numbers above.
All of these differentials are greater than 2 PPG and so should be reasonably considered for separation by tier.
On a pure points basis getting a 3 PPG advantage compared to anything less than that should help you win more games.
It is the starting requirements, scarcity and ADP that drives the why people will favor drafting other positions over QB that they may reasonably have projected to make a larger difference in PPG.
Add to that the unpredictability of QB performance, particularly TDs thrown as the main variable in scoring being considered here I can understand waiting on QBs and hoping you land lightning in a bottle with a later or pick, or steaming match ups if you don't.
For example Matt Ryan last season threw for 38 TD (career high) while in 2015 he only threw 21 TD (career average 28 TD excluding rookie season). It is a difference of being QB 2 in 2016 and QB 19 in 2015 (standard scoring 4 TD). and mostly driven by the TD difference that becomes more pronounced the more a QB scores for each TD pass, as shown by the numbers above.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Pardon me if someone said this already, but the scoring almost doesn't matter. What matters is how many QBs you can start and how many QBs you expect to be rostered at any given time This is a supply demand question, not a scoring question. JJ Zacharison who has made his fantasy name off of the idea of the late round QB studied this and the results aren't what you think. As the value of TDs goes up from 4 to 6, MORE QBs become startable, not less. More QBs will put up QB1 weeks with 6 point TD than 4 point TD. I suspect this is because TDs have more random variance than yards so by making TDs even more valuable, it puts even more value on the more stat with more variance.
Remember fantasy is a week to week game. End of the year stats aren't that important at a position like QB where QB1s can often be picked up from the waiver wires each week.
Remember fantasy is a week to week game. End of the year stats aren't that important at a position like QB where QB1s can often be picked up from the waiver wires each week.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree for the most part and i am only taking a contrary position to further the discussion.
What I don't agree with is about fantasy being a week to week game. There are many formats (best ball, total points, dynasty) where the end of year stats are important. Not every league is based on week to week results.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Of course, formats vary. I am referring to traditional H2H leagues where players can be added/dropped.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
One of my least favorite aspects of fantasy football is choosing the right players to start each week. I am not particularly good at that.
Formats that I favor render steaming not an option and much of Mr late round QB points moot.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I have found a lot of success with it- pay more attention to the defense than the QB. Also I have found that it's pretty common that several late round QB or WW QB ends up performing as QB1. Over the recent years, many of the best QBs have been drafted as QB10 or later.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I would say that a strong majority of all discussions on here center around managed leagues. Threads or questions are usually noted as best ball or MFL10 otherwise.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Just to echo what some others have already said, 6-point passing TDs does make a difference, but not a huge one.
For example, David Dodds has Brady with his highest passing TD projection (36) and has Cam as "replacement level" QB12 with 24 passing TDs. The extra 2 points per passing TD times 12 extra TDs adds 24 points. That's a 1.5 PPG boost for Brady over replacement level. That's certainly not nothing and should boost him up a half round or so at least. But it's also not so much that he's going to vault way up the board or you completely change your typical 4-point TD strategy/rankings.
Edit to add: We are doing a Footballguys 12-team mock draft tomorrow night for a 6-point passing TD format and I was just looking at the numbers a little bit to decide on a draft strategy. Expect the writeup and results of that draft to be posted early next week. Hopefully it'll be helpful in preparing for your draft. I'm drafting out of the 4-hole.
For example, David Dodds has Brady with his highest passing TD projection (36) and has Cam as "replacement level" QB12 with 24 passing TDs. The extra 2 points per passing TD times 12 extra TDs adds 24 points. That's a 1.5 PPG boost for Brady over replacement level. That's certainly not nothing and should boost him up a half round or so at least. But it's also not so much that he's going to vault way up the board or you completely change your typical 4-point TD strategy/rankings.
Edit to add: We are doing a Footballguys 12-team mock draft tomorrow night for a 6-point passing TD format and I was just looking at the numbers a little bit to decide on a draft strategy. Expect the writeup and results of that draft to be posted early next week. Hopefully it'll be helpful in preparing for your draft. I'm drafting out of the 4-hole.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree and I do understand the dynamics of head to head formats. I am just not particularly fond of them.
Where I take issue is when people say end of year stats don't matter as a way to support their point.
In dynasty leagues that are head to head formats, how a particular player scored on week 3 of one season gets dwarfed compared to that players career.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
In dynasty it still doesn't matter because it still comes down to head to head every week and winning that one game to make the playoffs. Then it's win at all costs once in the playoffs. I care more about winning this season than adding a player for next year. I've always felt that people put way too much emphasis on future years in dynasty years even though I know that's kind of the point.
I understand that it's a weekly game and you can stream QB that get you weekly top 12 performances that's fine, but let's say you got Rogers and stafford and say they both post 8 top 12 wks but in those 8 wks Rogers is always finishing either #1 or 2 and Stafford finishing 10-12 that's still a 7 ppg difference
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right but the opportunity cost is huge. What's the value of the RB or WR you weren't able to draft because you took Rodgers instead?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It doesn't matter? Going to have to disagree with your statement there. Your 3rd sentence disagrees with your first one.
You are not going to sacrifice a players value over the whole season for one game are you?
How the player performs over a season is more important than how they perform in a single game.
In redraft where you will not carry the players over into the next season, the end of year stats are less important. Dynasty value should be measured in terms of seasons, not games.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sure. But if you take Rodgers you're probably passing on Amari cooper or Lamar miller. If you take the 12th qb (Mariota) you're taking him instead of Eric decker or Matt Forte. Would you rather start rodgers and decker or mariota and cooper? I'll take the latter for 2017.
need2know
Footballguy
Yep. And I bet all those people who took Newton and luck felt great last year
Give me a QB after I have all my starters and backups to those starters. Like round 9 or ten.
You want to talk about a difference making position you should take one of the better tes early. Gronk, kelce, olsen would be a better choice early than Brady or Rodgers in leagues that require te. The drop-off at te is far greater than qb and there are less good ones.
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
In my one dynasty league I care more about winning this year than I do next year. When I start the season I want young prospects and good veteran players. Each week I'm making moves and adjusting my roster to win that week, not next week. The end of the season totals do not do me any good unless I am winning each week. If I make the playoffs and I have a 3rd round rookie on my bench that has not played all season I will drop him for a player that can help me win my playoff game if given the opportunity because I want to win now.
If my team is struggling then I'll focus more on compiling a roster for the next year. I have not had that issue yet though because I've finished in the top 3 every year so far.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If you knew for sure that the QB you take would score 7 ppg more than a midtier QB1, then yes. However that is very unpredictable. We saw the rollercoasters of Cam, Wilson and Luck recently. Over the last 4 years, Rodgers has averaged 22 ppg in 2 of his seasons. 22 ppg is replaceable in a 6pt TD league. Because 2-4 RBs and WRs start in most leagues there is more room to be wrong with your RB/WR selection but still end up with a startable player. Todd Gurley was the RB1 in most leagues last year and that was a huge bust. However, he didn't get cut in leagues like Cam (QB1) did. Because of supply and demand, even Gurley who was RB29 in standard ppg represented a player worth rostering for a flex or bye week play. Cam on the other hand was QB17 in ppg and was a complete waste of a roster spot. Also, the farther you get draft down the RB and WR lists, the less likely you are to find an elite difference maker. Every pick is a gamble, but the RB1 is a better gamble than the RB10 and the RB10 is a better gamble than the RB20 and so on. So when you take Rodgers instead of the RB12 or WR12, you are sacrificing a quality gamble at a RB1 or WR1.
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Dynasty is very different than redraft for many reasons and most of them effect the value of QB's.
Dynasty leagues usually have very deep rosters and most teams will hold 3 or more QB's. As @Ilov80s mentioned earlier, the main driver for value is scarcitity. If every starting QB and most back ups are going to be owned then it will change the value of QB's vs a redraft league with 15 roster spots and start 1 QB.
Dynasty leagues also value the players longevity. If you get a QB early that is very good, they will often have 10+ season carreers which is highly valuable in dynasty.
I get that you are trying to play devils advocate here, but in standard H2H leagues with rosters less than 18-20 and start 1 QB, they really are overvalued by most of the FF community.
In best ball MFL10 type formats the move up a little as the rosters are deeper and most teams will hold 2-3 but it does not really raise the value of the top QB's just means that you will likely take you second QB earlier.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Depends on your league I guess, but in mine the top ppg TE (Reed) averaged 14.0 ppg. The 12th (Ebron) averaged 11.2. That's less than 3 points per game. QB1 (Rodgers) outscored QB12 (Mariota) 28.5 to 20.6, just less than 8 ppg. Maybe you're that much more confident in Gronk/Kelce/Olsen to be a top 5 TE than Ebron to be relevant, compared to Rodgers vs. Mariota.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just imagine there was an odd league that played 2
Last year was also one of the lowest scoring TE seasons in recent memory. The year before Reed and Gronk averaged 17+ in PPR which was about 6 or 7 more than the bottom tier TE1s.
-OZ-
Footballguy
in 2015, Gronk, Reed and Walker all scored about 17 ppg. So yes, you're right that the top guys were down in 16. TE12 (Graham) scored 11.1, so 6 ppg less. QB1 (Cam) scored 28.7, QB12 (Stafford) scored 22.4, so 6.3 less. Doesn't really support the statement of "The drop-off at te is far greater than qb and there are less good ones". I think the only way to support that statement is if you're just more confident in the 12th QB than the 12th TE, which seems reasonable. 
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I'm in a start 2 Qb league, they are always valuable and syncs up closer to the reality of the NFL roster construction, makes the fantasy version value the position highly as well...
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Imagine a league that starts 2QBs, 3RBs, 2TEs and 1 WR. Most teams would only roster 1-2 WRs. So 18-24 WRs would be owned which means last year guys like Dez,Garcon, Hill, Wallace, KBenjamin, Pryor, Hopkins, AR15 etc. would have mostly been guys that would be WW level replacement players. The dropoff from Baldwin at WR9 to WR25 would have been 2 ppg.
The top 7 or 8 WRs would represent a bigger advantage than we see with the top 7-8 QBs though because the WR position is less predictable than the QB position. Since QBs, even the bad ones, touch the ball on every play and throw >30 times, their points are more predictable than a WR in any given game.
The top 7 or 8 WRs would represent a bigger advantage than we see with the top 7-8 QBs though because the WR position is less predictable than the QB position. Since QBs, even the bad ones, touch the ball on every play and throw >30 times, their points are more predictable than a WR in any given game.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The difference IMO is that QB scoring is a lot more predictable than TE.
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