Where does this put the top 20 overall players in terms of scoring? Are the top 7 all QB's then followed by some RB's and WR's? Are there large gaps in QB scoring tiers or do they all go up someone together in points? The key is the relative value of the QB to the other positions as well as across the QB position itself. If there are no large gaps in QB scoring tiers and essentially the QB's are 1 or 2 ppg different moving down the list you won't be hurt by getting the 8th QB if he is only 2-3 ppg behind the top guy.I know we all believe in waiting on a QB and the reasons are obvious but in my league we give QB 6pts for all Td's and 9pts for all Td's over 40 yds. Would this change how you value the QB position? Would it make you consider going QB earlier?
I play in a league that has all TDs 6 points and 50 yard TDs worth 7. I don't seen any change in value. It actually tends to make the low end QBs have more top 12 weeks than with 4 pt TDs.I know we all believe in waiting on a QB and the reasons are obvious but in my league we give QB 6pts for all Td's and 9pts for all Td's over 40 yds. Would this change how you value the QB position? Would it make you consider going QB earlier?
Over the last 3 yrs the average difference between the top QB and let's say number 8 QB is about 7 ppgWhere does this put the top 20 overall players in terms of scoring? Are the top 7 all QB's then followed by some RB's and WR's? Are there large gaps in QB scoring tiers or do they all go up someone together in points? The key is the relative value of the QB to the other positions as well as across the QB position itself. If there are no large gaps in QB scoring tiers and essentially the QB's are 1 or 2 ppg different moving down the list you won't be hurt by getting the 8th QB if he is only 2-3 ppg behind the top guy.
I don't think it is a huge difference to justify making any drastic changes in draft philosophy.Over the last 3 yrs the average difference between the top QB and let's say number 8 QB is about 7 ppg
Delta from QB1 to QB8 in my league was 6.0. But that's not the key range. What is QB6 to QB20?Over the last 3 yrs the average difference between the top QB and let's say number 8 QB is about 7 ppg
Delta from QB1 to QB8 in my league was 6.0. But that's not the key range. What is QB6 to QB20?
From QB 1 to QB 8 31-2222.3 - 17.8 in my 6 pt td league
Sorry we do use decimals was just easier to post if I rounded the numbers21.8 - 18.5. So 3.3 PPG. Not sure why you wouldn't do decimals, but there looks to be very little difference in that next tier of QB regardless of TD scoring.
So with that being said am I crazy in thinking if you're not taking a top 3 QB you might as well just grab QB's off the waiver wire?21.8 - 18.5. So 3.3 PPG. Not sure why you wouldn't do decimals, but there looks to be very little difference in that next tier of QB regardless of TD scoring.
if the ending rankings equaled the preseason rankings then sureSo in theory if you wait you should really wait til end of the draft but if you not waiting til the end of the draft you need to be drafting 1 of the top 3.
Those that spent a 12th on Matt Ryan last year did pretty well for themselves.So with that being said am I crazy in thinking if you're not taking a top 3 QB you might as well just grab QB's off the waiver wire?
I'm not sure we all believe this. I tend to try to get in on a QB earlier than most and grab an elite guy and I have been pretty successful in doing so.I know we all believe in waiting on a QB and the reasons are obvious but in my league we give QB 6pts for all Td's and 9pts for all Td's over 40 yds. Would this change how you value the QB position? Would it make you consider going QB earlier?
I think an elite qb is practically mandatory nowadays. What I'm finding is that outside the top 4 players there isn't a lot of consistency when it comes to big weeks. A guy like Rodgers gives you almost a guaranteed 25 pts from the qb position. That is invaluable in my 6pt td leagueI'm not sure we all believe this. I tend to try to get in on a QB earlier than most and grab an elite guy and I have been pretty successful in doing so.
I have been streaming qbs since last century and it works just fine for me. Any strategy can work in fantasy football as long as you know what you are doing and draft/pick up free agents correctly.I think an elite qb is practically mandatory nowadays. What I'm finding is that outside the top 4 players there isn't a lot of consistency when it comes to big weeks. A guy like Rodgers gives you almost a guaranteed 25 pts from the qb position. That is invaluable in my 6pt td league
I agree. Generally speaking, nowadays, whoever gets the free agents usually wins. Every year it seems like some guys team is being driven through the playoffs by a spencer ware or rob kelleyI have been streaming qbs since last century and it works just fine for me. Any strategy can work in fantasy football as long as you know what you are doing and draft/pick up free agents correctly.
I don't think any of this is true.I think an elite qb is practically mandatory nowadays. What I'm finding is that outside the top 4 players there isn't a lot of consistency when it comes to big weeks. A guy like Rodgers gives you almost a guaranteed 25 pts from the qb position. That is invaluable in my 6pt td league
That is what is different now, it used to be taking a qb early meant round 1 or 2. Now sometimes the first ones go in the 4th or 5th. Different ball game completely.All that being said, if you are in a snake draft and in the late fourth you don't like any of the RB's or WR's available grab an Brady or Rodgers is still there, I can see the temptation. Its not my style but I understand why you would do it.
That's a different discussion though. This is about the impact of changing from 4 to 6 points per passing touchdowns comparing QB6 to QB20. 3.3 PPG vs. 4 PPG (no decimals from OP) or 4.5 PPG from other poster was the (very rough) result.Just to play devils advocate here; 3.3 points per game is still a significant advantage and perhaps more of an advantage than can be gained by drafting players at another position where the spread in PPG is smaller than this.
I agree for the most part and i am only taking a contrary position to further the discussion.Pardon me if someone said this already, but the scoring almost doesn't matter. What matters is how many QBs you can start and how many QBs you expect to be rostered at any given time This is a supply demand question, not a scoring question. JJ Zacharison who has made his fantasy name off of the idea of the late round QB studied this and the results aren't what you think. As the value of TDs goes up from 4 to 6, MORE QBs become startable, not less. More QBs will put up QB1 weeks with 6 point TD than 4 point TD. I suspect this is because TDs have more random variance than yards so by making TDs even more valuable, it puts even more value on the more stat with more variance.
Remember fantasy is a week to week game. End of the year stats aren't that important at a position like QB where QB1s can often be picked up from the waiver wires each week.
Of course, formats vary. I am referring to traditional H2H leagues where players can be added/dropped.I agree for the most part and i am only taking a contrary position to further the discussion.
What I don't agree with is about fantasy being a week to week game. There are many formats (best ball, total points, dynasty) where the end of year stats are important. Not every league is based on week to week results.
One of my least favorite aspects of fantasy football is choosing the right players to start each week. I am not particularly good at that.Of course, formats vary. I am referring to traditional H2H leagues where players can be added/dropped.
I have found a lot of success with it- pay more attention to the defense than the QB. Also I have found that it's pretty common that several late round QB or WW QB ends up performing as QB1. Over the recent years, many of the best QBs have been drafted as QB10 or later.One of my least favorite aspects of fantasy football is choosing the right players to start each week. I am not particularly good at that.
Formats that I favor render steaming not an option and much of Mr late round QB points moot.
I would say that a strong majority of all discussions on here center around managed leagues. Threads or questions are usually noted as best ball or MFL10 otherwise.One of my least favorite aspects of fantasy football is choosing the right players to start each week. I am not particularly good at that.
Formats that I favor render steaming not an option and much of Mr late round QB points moot.
I agree and I do understand the dynamics of head to head formats. I am just not particularly fond of them.I would say that a strong majority of all discussions on here center around managed leagues. Threads or questions are usually noted as best ball or MFL10 otherwise.
In dynasty it still doesn't matter because it still comes down to head to head every week and winning that one game to make the playoffs. Then it's win at all costs once in the playoffs. I care more about winning this season than adding a player for next year. I've always felt that people put way too much emphasis on future years in dynasty years even though I know that's kind of the point.I agree and I do understand the dynamics of head to head formats. I am just not particularly fond of them.
Where I take issue is when people say end of year stats don't matter as a way to support their point.
In dynasty leagues that are head to head formats, how a particular player scored on week 3 of one season gets dwarfed compared to that players career.
I understand that it's a weekly game and you can stream QB that get you weekly top 12 performances that's fine, but let's say you got Rogers and stafford and say they both post 8 top 12 wks but in those 8 wks Rogers is always finishing either #1 or 2 and Stafford finishing 10-12 that's still a 7 ppg differencePardon me if someone said this already, but the scoring almost doesn't matter. What matters is how many QBs you can start and how many QBs you expect to be rostered at any given time This is a supply demand question, not a scoring question. JJ Zacharison who has made his fantasy name off of the idea of the late round QB studied this and the results aren't what you think. As the value of TDs goes up from 4 to 6, MORE QBs become startable, not less. More QBs will put up QB1 weeks with 6 point TD than 4 point TD. I suspect this is because TDs have more random variance than yards so by making TDs even more valuable, it puts even more value on the more stat with more variance.
Remember fantasy is a week to week game. End of the year stats aren't that important at a position like QB where QB1s can often be picked up from the waiver wires each week.
Right but the opportunity cost is huge. What's the value of the RB or WR you weren't able to draft because you took Rodgers instead?I understand that it's a weekly game and you can stream QB that get you weekly top 12 performances that's fine, but let's say you got Rogers and stafford and say they both post 8 top 12 wks but in those 8 wks Rogers is always finishing either #1 or 2 and Stafford finishing 10-12 that's still a 7 ppg difference
It doesn't matter? Going to have to disagree with your statement there. Your 3rd sentence disagrees with your first one.In dynasty it still doesn't matter because it still comes down to head to head every week and winning that one game to make the playoffs. Then it's win at all costs once in the playoffs. I care more about winning this season than adding a player for next year. I've always felt that people put way too much emphasis on future years in dynasty years even though I know that's kind of the point.
If that value is less than 7 PPG wouldn't the QB help you win more?Right but the opportunity cost is huge. What's the value of the RB or WR you weren't able to draft because you took Rodgers instead?
Sure. But if you take Rodgers you're probably passing on Amari cooper or Lamar miller. If you take the 12th qb (Mariota) you're taking him instead of Eric decker or Matt Forte. Would you rather start rodgers and decker or mariota and cooper? I'll take the latter for 2017.If that value is less than 7 PPG wouldn't the QB help you win more?
Yep. And I bet all those people who took Newton and luck felt great last yearSure. But if you take Rodgers you're probably passing on Amari cooper or Lamar miller. If you take the 12th qb (Mariota) you're taking him instead of Eric decker or Matt Forte. Would you rather start rodgers and decker or mariota and cooper? I'll take the latter for 2017.
In my one dynasty league I care more about winning this year than I do next year. When I start the season I want young prospects and good veteran players. Each week I'm making moves and adjusting my roster to win that week, not next week. The end of the season totals do not do me any good unless I am winning each week. If I make the playoffs and I have a 3rd round rookie on my bench that has not played all season I will drop him for a player that can help me win my playoff game if given the opportunity because I want to win now.It doesn't matter? Going to have to disagree with your statement there. Your 3rd sentence disagrees with your first one.
You are not going to sacrifice a players value over the whole season for one game are you?
How the player performs over a season is more important than how they perform in a single game.
In redraft where you will not carry the players over into the next season, the end of year stats are less important. Dynasty value should be measured in terms of seasons, not games.
If you knew for sure that the QB you take would score 7 ppg more than a midtier QB1, then yes. However that is very unpredictable. We saw the rollercoasters of Cam, Wilson and Luck recently. Over the last 4 years, Rodgers has averaged 22 ppg in 2 of his seasons. 22 ppg is replaceable in a 6pt TD league. Because 2-4 RBs and WRs start in most leagues there is more room to be wrong with your RB/WR selection but still end up with a startable player. Todd Gurley was the RB1 in most leagues last year and that was a huge bust. However, he didn't get cut in leagues like Cam (QB1) did. Because of supply and demand, even Gurley who was RB29 in standard ppg represented a player worth rostering for a flex or bye week play. Cam on the other hand was QB17 in ppg and was a complete waste of a roster spot. Also, the farther you get draft down the RB and WR lists, the less likely you are to find an elite difference maker. Every pick is a gamble, but the RB1 is a better gamble than the RB10 and the RB10 is a better gamble than the RB20 and so on. So when you take Rodgers instead of the RB12 or WR12, you are sacrificing a quality gamble at a RB1 or WR1.Sure. But if you take Rodgers you're probably passing on Amari cooper or Lamar miller. If you take the 12th qb (Mariota) you're taking him instead of Eric decker or Matt Forte. Would you rather start rodgers and decker or mariota and cooper? I'll take the latter for 2017.
Dynasty is very different than redraft for many reasons and most of them effect the value of QB's.It doesn't matter? Going to have to disagree with your statement there. Your 3rd sentence disagrees with your first one.
You are not going to sacrifice a players value over the whole season for one game are you?
How the player performs over a season is more important than how they perform in a single game.
In redraft where you will not carry the players over into the next season, the end of year stats are less important. Dynasty value should be measured in terms of seasons, not games.
Depends on your league I guess, but in mine the top ppg TE (Reed) averaged 14.0 ppg. The 12th (Ebron) averaged 11.2. That's less than 3 points per game. QB1 (Rodgers) outscored QB12 (Mariota) 28.5 to 20.6, just less than 8 ppg. Maybe you're that much more confident in Gronk/Kelce/Olsen to be a top 5 TE than Ebron to be relevant, compared to Rodgers vs. Mariota.Yep. And I bet all those people who took Newton and luck felt great last year
Give me a QB after I have all my starters and backups to those starters. Like round 9 or ten.
You want to talk about a difference making position you should take one of the better tes early. Gronk, kelce, olsen would be a better choice early than Brady or Rodgers in leagues that require te. The drop-off at te is far greater than qb and there are less good ones.
Last year was also one of the lowest scoring TE seasons in recent memory. The year before Reed and Gronk averaged 17+ in PPR which was about 6 or 7 more than the bottom tier TE1s.Depends on your league I guess, but in mine the top ppg TE (Reed) averaged 14.0 ppg. The 12th (Ebron) averaged 11.2. That's less than 3 points per game. QB1 (Rodgers) outscored QB12 (Mariota) 28.5 to 20.6, just less than 8 ppg. Maybe you're that much more confident in Gronk/Kelce/Olsen to be a top 5 TE than Ebron to be relevant, compared to Rodgers vs. Mariota.
in 2015, Gronk, Reed and Walker all scored about 17 ppg. So yes, you're right that the top guys were down in 16. TE12 (Graham) scored 11.1, so 6 ppg less. QB1 (Cam) scored 28.7, QB12 (Stafford) scored 22.4, so 6.3 less. Doesn't really support the statement of "The drop-off at te is far greater than qb and there are less good ones". I think the only way to support that statement is if you're just more confident in the 12th QB than the 12th TE, which seems reasonable.Last year was also one of the lowest scoring TE seasons in recent memory. The year before Reed and Gronk averaged 17+ in PPR which was about 6 or 7 more than the bottom tier TE1s.Depends on your league I guess, but in mine the top ppg TE (Reed) averaged 14.0 ppg. The 12th (Ebron) averaged 11.2. That's less than 3 points per game. QB1 (Rodgers) outscored QB12 (Mariota) 28.5 to 20.6, just less than 8 ppg. Maybe you're that much more confident in Gronk/Kelce/Olsen to be a top 5 TE than Ebron to be relevant, compared to Rodgers vs. Mariota.
The difference IMO is that QB scoring is a lot more predictable than TE.in 2015, Gronk, Reed and Walker all scored about 17 ppg. So yes, you're right that the top guys were down in 16. TE12 (Graham) scored 11.1, so 6 ppg less. QB1 (Cam) scored 28.7, QB12 (Stafford) scored 22.4, so 6.3 less. Doesn't really support the statement of "The drop-off at te is far greater than qb and there are less good ones". I think the only way to support that statement is if you're just more confident in the 12th QB than the 12th TE, which seems reasonable.