2017 Rookie WRs (Dynasty) (1 Viewer)

Disclaimer - Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere, I'm only a casual FF player.

While there has been a lot of discussion regarding the rookie RBs, I haven't been able to find much on WRs. Has anyone put any thought into tiers, short-term as well long-term projections etc. 

Having #5 pick, I'm currently considering Davis/Williams in the first and possibly Godwin/Smith-Schuster in the 2nd, assuming Ross, Jones and Samuel go in between my picks.

Who and where are others drafting/targeting WRs in rookie drafts?

It's a bad year to need WRs and target them, IMO.  Good year for RBs and TEs, bad for WRs and QBs. If it's me and I need WRs, I'd FIRST try to trade for an established WR during the draft to a team who wants to move up for a rookie. Vets typically get devalued during the draft and if you have the stomach for say a Sammy Watkins foot issues, he can be had for a song right now.  (personally, I'd rather take a chance on him than John Ross or Mike Williams)  Might also be able to get Devante Adams, Cobb, Benjamin, Sanders, Tate, etc for various values.  If there are no takers (depending on draft picks) I'd target Davis early mid first, Samuel mid-early 2nd, Ardarius Stewart late 2nd early 3rd, Westbrook mid-late 3rd to stash and wait for his talent to emerge. This is just me though and who I have typically targeted in drafts this year just to keep fresh legs on my roster at WR.

Typically though in a year of RBs and TEs, it's best to take those because you usually regret passing on talent for team needs. You can trade for need later if you are patient.

I agree with RW above, but I'd target Godwin over Samuel/Stewart and might reach for Josh Reynolds in the 3rd (depending on your draft position, you could get him in the 4th). 

kerpow said:

Disclaimer - Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere, I'm only a casual FF player.

While there has been a lot of discussion regarding the rookie RBs, I haven't been able to find much on WRs. Has anyone put any thought into tiers, short-term as well long-term projections etc. 

Having #5 pick, I'm currently considering Davis/Williams in the first and possibly Godwin/Smith-Schuster in the 2nd, assuming Ross, Jones and Samuel go in between my picks.

Who and where are others drafting/targeting WRs in rookie drafts?

Click to expand...

800 posts and no likes? Glad I was your first.   POPPED!

My rankings of WRs are unconventional because the draft for me is over and camp is about to start, so I am not sticking to whats expected during a rookie draft...I worry about this year just as much as I worry about 3 years from now.

Davis <----Stud!

Samuel <--- Was one of my favorites before the draft, was my #4...he jumped Ross and Williams leading to camp for me. I think he fits part of what they want to do underneath with other Big WRs in Benji and Funchy. PPR guy, TD league he will get a drop.

Williams <---Already hurt and lots of targets there. Not one of my favs before the draft, but he is talented.

Ross <----Fast, but not studly. Green, Eifert and RBs will take many targets, but if he gets more targets he will get a bump. 

Zay Jones <----Could shoot up fast.

JuJu <----Antonio, Martavious, Bell....then maybe he gets a shot. 

Galloday .... the rest are just preference but all the same.

Godwin

Henderson

Kupp

At 5 you're taking one of fournette, mccaffrey, mixon, cook or Corey Davis, and you are probably better off not doing any research on them because you have no control over which one you get, and 4 of them will go before you. Instead, when you make your pick, declare that you can't believe this guy slid to you because he was your first choice all along.  I'm pretty sure that's what everyone at 5 has done in every draft I've seen. 

In the second, if he's there, take Zay Jones.  Hes the Vegas favorite to lead all rookies in year one and is going to be a starter in buffalo, he's following his college receiving coach who also went to buffalo this year, and that's the guy who helped him set the receptions record in college with games to spare.

Thanks for the replies, all. Yes, much of you have confirmed my initial thoughts, but I felt like I didn't know enough about some of the players to trust my gut. Agree that the top 5 picks are pretty much set in stone, it's just what order they go in so I suppose its just BPA.

The consensus is that Williams would, therefore, be a reach or risky pick? 

Is it worth trying to move up a spot or two to get Davis?

If you get Davis at #5 then that's the steal of the year.  As for the other WR's, I'm not super high on any of them but I like almost none of them as well.  Mike Williams is the other "top tier" guy for most people but that situation is so interesting that it could literally play out 10 different ways for or against him.  Hardest one to project long term in my opinion.  The only one, other than Davis, that I am actually targeting is JuJu.  That might be the other hardest to project as well.  

My personal tiers are 

Tier 1: Davis

Tier 2:  Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Tier 3:  John Ross, Zay Jones, Cooper Kupp

I really only like Davis out of the WRs going in the 1st two rounds.  A guy like Zay Jones is solid but he's drafted too high for my liking.  The two WRs who I have targeted in every draft are Kenny Golloday and Chad Williams.  Those are guys you can get in the 3rd round who if they hit have the upside to be more than just a guy.  

With the #5 pick, as it stands now, you are looking at whoever falls to you from the group of Fournette, Davis, Mixon, McCaffrey or Cook.  It seems unlikely that would be Davis, but you never know.

Mike Williams and John Ross are likely gone before you select again.  I have seen a few drafts where Ross fell that far, and if he does, he is a great value selection.

Zay Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Curtis Samuel are all likely second round picks, and preseason could sort them out.  As it stands now, I like them in the order I have listed them.  Zay Jones has the best immediate value of them, and arguably the best long-term value as well.

Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin are Round 2-3 receivers.  Godwin, like JuJu above, joins a crowded receiving corps.  Kupp doesn't wow me, but he is a solid football player with a high football IQ and strong work ethic.

Chad Williams is intriguing.  He may not see the field much his rookie season, but he may emerge once Fitzgerald hangs up his cleats.

ArDarius Stewart has little competition for touches, but the Jets are in shambles right now.

Josh Reynolds may turn out more valuable than his rookie running mate, Kupp, especially in non-ppr.  Reynolds has good vertical speed, good hands and a long frame.

Golladay has the talent to develop into a solid starter, but it may take him some time to refine his route running.

Taywan Taylor also intrigues me, although I am not sure I like the landing spot for early success.

DeDe Westbrook has shown the skills to become an NFL starter, but there are character concerns to go allong with his thin frame.

Carlos Henderson is an exciting playmaker, and with an aging receiving corps in front of him, he could have some excellent long-term value.

Amara Darboh, Chad Hansen, Josh Malone, Robert Davis and Ishmael Zamora all intrigue me as well, and I will be monitoring their progress this preseason.

Preseason will sort out this class of receivers.  While it is not a great class, there are certainly some intriguing prospects.

My rankings:

T1:  Davis

T2: Williams, Ross

T3:  Juju, Henderson, Zay Jones, Godwin

socrates said:

ArDarius Stewart has little competition for touches, but the Jets are in shambles right now.

Click to expand...

A lot with him hinges on being actually healthy for camp

unless the setup of this league is very odd, and kills WR value, i dont think davis slides to 5th in too many drafts

take whatever RB is there and look for godwin in rd 2 imo

Even in my 12-teams PPR dynasty league, Corey Davis fell to 4th overall selection.  So you may have an outside shot on Davis at 5th overall selection.  Fournette, McCaffrey, and Mixon were chosen before Davis.  The team owner who had 1st overall and 3rd overall draft selections on Fournette and Mixon bypassed Davis despite the fact that he is clearly lacking a WR depth. 

Some good info here. Outside of 1.1 I have 1.6/1.7 and the plan is to take Cook/Perine at those spots ( I'm taking Mixon 1.1 - only RB on roster is David Johnson/Rob Kelley ). With that said I'm expecting Cook to go 1.5 so that leaves Mike Williams available. Loved him at Clemson but I'm torn between him and taking a TE ( trade down also a possibility ). I wouldn't consider Ross there and I have JuJu pegged at 4 but he's a stash until MB possibly leaves the Burgh after next season as a FA. I also like Taywan Taylor obvi not Rd1 tho. GL

Gianluca said:

Some good info here. Outside of 1.1 I have 1.6/1.7 and the plan is to take Cook/Perine at those spots ( I'm taking Mixon 1.1 - only RB on roster is David Johnson/Rob Kelley ). With that said I'm expecting Cook to go 1.5 so that leaves Mike Williams available. Loved him at Clemson but I'm torn between him and taking a TE ( trade down also a possibility ). I wouldn't consider Ross there and I have JuJu pegged at 4 but he's a stash until MB possibly leaves the Burgh after next season as a FA. I also like Taywan Taylor obvi not Rd1 tho. GL

Click to expand...

You can't go wrong on taking Mike Williams and OJ Howard at 1.6 and 1.7.  If it helps, JuJu was taken in late 2nd round and Taylor was taken at the final pick of 3rd round. Naturally, each rookie's value varies differently in everyone's ranking list. 

Aznflyer14 said:

You can't go wrong on taking Mike Williams and OJ Howard at 1.6 and 1.7.  If it helps, JuJu was taken in late 2nd round and Taylor was taken at the final pick of 3rd round. Naturally, each rookie's value varies differently in everyone's ranking list. 

Click to expand...

Surprised JuJu went that late. I'm def taking Perine at 7. My only dilemma is if Cook goes 5. Guess I'll decide in 2 days when the draft starts. Thanks 

My take is that Davis belongs somewhere in the top 5 picks, Williams should be 1.06, and Ross should be somewhere in the bottom half of rd 1.

Then several WRs belong somewhere in rd 2: JuJu, Samuel, Z Jones, Henderson, Taywan Taylor, Godwin.

After those guys are gone, in rd 3 I'd be open to any of Golladay, Stewart, Chad Williams, and Kupp (though Kupp is usually going sooner than that).

But it's a mistake to lock in on one position in a rookie draft. At 1.05 you should either draft whoever's left out of Davis & the 4 RBs, or trade the pick. And if value falls in a later round at another position then you should be willing to pick it up. That's how you build a great team.

My favorite 2nd round target is Curtis Samuel.

I see him as a player who could make an immediate impact and have the type of rookie year that catapults his value way up next summer. He should step into the Ted Ginn Jr. role as primary deep threat right away. Ginn has averaged 825 yards and 7 touchdowns per year over the last two years. IMO Samuel is a better player and should also rack up more underneath targets to pad the PPR numbers. 

The guy everyone seems to like who I'm a little down on is Juju Smith-Schuster. I like him well enough as a player, but his situation over the next few years looks pretty iffy. Antonio Brown signed a big, long-term deal. Le'Veon gets 100+ targets (though it's possible he could leave). And I'm optimistic about Martavis Bryant staying clean and hogging a bunch of targets as arguably the best #2 WR in the league. It's just hard to see how Juju gets enough targets to be fantasy relevant unless something happens to Bryant or Brown. Even if you do like him long-term, there's a very good chance he'll be cheaper to acquire next year than he is now. 

Kupp is someone I think is overlooked big time. He's going to produce in the NFL, I base my opinion on the tape, he may be a tick slower but he knows how to get open

This draft class is not very strong at WR compared to the last 3 drafts. There are several fantasy WR 2 upside players but in my opinion only one (Corey Davis) who has WR 1 upside.

A fantasy WR 2 is still valuable, just not a player that would be worth a top 5 rookie pick (where you are selecting).

I agree with what others have said. If you are focused on upgrading at WR try trading the 5th overall pick for a veteran WR that you like. 

FWIW here are my rookie rankings for 2017

Tier One 

(5) Corey Davis Titans
(41) Dalvin Cook Vikings
(8) Christian McCaffrey Panthers
(4) Leonard Fournette Jaguars
(48) Joe Mixon Bengals
(22) Evan Engram Giants
(17) OJ Howard Buccaneers
(29) David Njoku Browns

Tier Two 

(7) Mike Williams Chargers
(9) John Ross Bengals
(37) Zay Jones Bills
(86) Kareem Hunt KC Chiefs
(62) JuJu Smith-Schuster Steelers
(89) D'Onta Foreman Texans
(67) Alvin Kamara Saints
(114) Samaje Perine Redskins
(40) Curtis Samuel Panthers
(69) Cooper Kupp Rams
(72) Taywan Taylor Titans

(12) Deshaun Watson Texans
(10) Patrick Mahomes KC Chiefs
(2) Mitch Trubisky Bears
(52) Deshone Kizer Browns

(44) Gerald Everett Rams
(82) Carlos Henderson Broncos
(84) Chris Godwin Buccaneers
(117) Josh Reynolds Rams
(134) Jamaal Williams Packers
(143) Marlon Mack Colts
(132) Donnell Pumphrey Eagles
(100) Jonnu Smith Titans

Tier three 

(45) Adam Shaheen Bears
(110) Dede Westbrook Jaguars
(144) George Kittle 49ers
(79) Ardarious Stewart Jets
(121) Joe Williams 49ers
(182) Aaron Jones Packers
(140) Wayne Gallman Giants
(150) Jordan Leggett Jets
(87) Davis Webb Giants
(201) Bucky Hodges Vikings
(162) Jeremy McNichols Buccaneers
(143) Jake Butt Broncos
(154) Jeremy Sprinkle Redskins
(174) Eric Soubert Falcons
(237) Isaiah Ford Dolphins
(242) Elijah Hood Raiders
(249) Christopher Carson Seahawks
(UDFA) Matt Breida 49ers
(215) Brad Kaaya Lions

Watch list (Players I haven't evaluated listed by the order they were drafted)

(96) Kenny Golladay Lions
(98) Chad Williams Cardinals
(104) CJ Beathard 49ers
(105) James Conner Steelers
(106) Amara Darboh Seahawks
(117) Mack Hollins Eagles
(119) Tarik Cohen Bears
(127) Michael Roberts Lions
(128) Josh Malone Bengals
(133) Ryan Switzer Cowbos
(135) Joshua Dobbs Steelers
(139) Jehu Chesson Chiefs
(141) Chad Hansen Jets
(156) Brian Hill Falcons
(166) Shelton Gibson Eagles
(170) Rodney Adams Vikings
(171) Nathan Peterman Bills
(172) Isiah McKenzie  Broncos
(175) DeAngelo Yancy Packers
(177) Trent Taylor 49ers
(179) TJ Logan Cardinals
(188) Elijah McGuire Jets
(203) DeAngelo Henderson Broncos
(207) Brandon Wilson Bengals
(209) Robert Davis Redskins
(219) Stacy Coley Vikings
(226) David Moore Seahawks
(238) Devante Mays Packers
(239) Noah Brown Cowboys
(241) Khalfani Muhammad Titans
(247) Malachai Dupree Packers
(251) Mason Scherck Bengals
(252) Matt Dayes Browns
(253) CHad Kelly Broncos

Latest rookie poll for a more consensus view of voters in the SP

kerpow said:

Thanks for the replies, all. Yes, much of you have confirmed my initial thoughts, but I felt like I didn't know enough about some of the players to trust my gut. Agree that the top 5 picks are pretty much set in stone, it's just what order they go in so I suppose its just BPA.

The consensus is that Williams would, therefore, be a reach or risky pick? 

Is it worth trying to move up a spot or two to get Davis?

Click to expand...

Just take whatever player falls to you at 5, don't reach for Williams and don't try and trade up. You might get a RB, but they produce sooner anyways so if you really want a WR you can trade the RB for a vet WR later.

It might be a good idea to go RB in the 2nd as well. If you're sitting there and someone like Hunt or Perine or Kamara (PPR?) fell to you, they're going to be earlier contributors than most of the WRs from this class and can be moved for Veteran assets.  Also, if Howard, Njoku, or Engram somehow falls to you in the 2nd, I'd take them over the WRs in that range.

If you're at 1.5 and really need WR, I think  you could easily get 1.6+2.6 from the next guy to move up. Then you can come away with Williams and 2 more darts in the 2nd. There's a lot of reasons not to take Williams (injuries, questionable 1st year production, Rivers' age) but he's still a top 10 NFL draft pick and still a 6'3" target hog.

A couple people have said this draft is "weak at WR". I think what they're really saying is "I don't like the elite prospects this year." It's a very deep WR draft. There are players through about pick 40 who have a chance to be NFL starters soon. If you can add an extra 2nd or 3rd by trading a player and get 3 or 4 rookie WR, you've got a good chance at 1 of them working out well.

Dan Hindery said:

My favorite 2nd round target is Curtis Samuel.

I see him as a player who could make an immediate impact and have the type of rookie year that catapults his value way up next summer. He should step into the Ted Ginn Jr. role as primary deep threat right away. Ginn has averaged 825 yards and 7 touchdowns per year over the last two years. IMO Samuel is a better player and should also rack up more underneath targets to pad the PPR numbers. 

The guy everyone seems to like who I'm a little down on is Juju Smith-Schuster. I like him well enough as a player, but his situation over the next few years looks pretty iffy. Antonio Brown signed a big, long-term deal. Le'Veon gets 100+ targets (though it's possible he could leave). And I'm optimistic about Martavis Bryant staying clean and hogging a bunch of targets as arguably the best #2 WR in the league. It's just hard to see how Juju gets enough targets to be fantasy relevant unless something happens to Bryant or Brown. Even if you do like him long-term, there's a very good chance he'll be cheaper to acquire next year than he is now. 

Click to expand...

Samuel is someone I found kind of hard evaluate, both as a player as well as his situation. Therefore, I knew he would always go before I'd feel comfortable taking him (unless it was crazy late). His evaluations by draft gurus were inconsistent, as well. It'll be interesting to see how Samuel develops.

The most underrated WR to me is Dede Westbrook (by far). Most NFL evaluators consider him a top-50 talent, but his indiscretions really knocked his stock down. Maybe more so than any player in the draft. If Westbrook walks the straight and narrow and applies himself, he's got stud-type raw ability, IMO. The strange thing is Westbrook virtually has no buzz in the FF community (although, he was sidelined with an injury in mini-camp). I'm the only one who seems high on him, LOL.

The thing with Westbrook is that there are a lot of WR ahead of him in Jacksonville and the QB situation is another questions mark. The offense looks like it will try to become more conservative at the same time.

These situational factors leave a lot of question marks in regards to his role and future opportunity to become relevant enough for fantasy purposes..

His statistical performance last season was excellent but in context this was his senior season and as a 23 year old rookie (will be 24 in November) that performance a bit less impressive when one considers break out age. Being an older rookie than average and with the talent ahead of him perhaps delaying his opportunity at the NFL level, it causes questions about his outook as far as how much better he can get at the NFL level.

He is a bit small and while certainly fast enough, some of his pro day numbers were not exceptional. For example his 3 cone time of 7.2 is not very good and his jump numbers not that impressive either. When you consider that pro day numbers are generally better than combine numbers (which he didn't do) this does cause some question marks.

He certainly looks like an exceptional athlete when watching him play in 2016 usually looking like the fastest player on the field.

If he had been drafted a bit higher than he was (like Mixon and Cook for example) then the off field concerns/risk would be mitigated a bit more than they have been falling to pick 110. Teams were not willing to take as much risk with him, which causes one to wonder if he may be a higher risk than others with similarly spotty backgrounds.

I have him as my second tier 3 prospect, (close to tier two) if he had been drafted higher than he was, and to a situation that had fewer question marks I would have him as a tier two player based on his college performance. It is mostly the situational factors of him being drafted by Jacksonville addressed in the first paragraph above that cause him to be a tier three WR prospect instead of a tier two guy for me.

I had Dede at overall #10 before the NFL draft and the combine HERE.  But there were a lot of unsolved things to him that we were waiting on.  Currently I have him outside my top40 which is a dramatic fall.  I don't know exactly why I put him so far down, maybe because I believed I could get him as a FA after the draft, I'm not sure.  There's plenty to like when you watch him but the situation leaves a lot to be desired and his off the field issues are giant question marks too.  I know this is high praise and all but I jotted down some notes and I thought he reminded me of AB/Djax/Crowder.  There's a combo there that is very intriguing.  

Biabreakable said:

The thing with Westbrook is that there are a lot of WR ahead of him in Jacksonville and the QB situation is another questions mark. The offense looks like it will try to become more conservative at the same time.

Click to expand...

this is the biggest obstacle for him. he's got two guys playing for contracts ahead of him and a third who they made a big investment in. i just don't think he's going to you're going to see how he translates to the pro game this year. there are likely better, smarter investments to make with a bench.

saintfool said:

this is the biggest obstacle for him. he's got two guys playing for contracts ahead of him and a third who they made a big investment in. i just don't think he's going to you're going to see how he translates to the pro game this year. there are likely better, smarter investments to make with a bench.

Click to expand...

Yeah. Things can change quickly of course. But right now he seems blocked for opportunities to show what he can do.

I do think he has similar talent to say Carlos Henderson who I have as a tier two prospect. Draft position and situation for Henderson seems better though.

Biabreakable said:

Yeah. Things can change quickly of course. But right now he seems blocked for opportunities to show what he can do.

Click to expand...

I think it will change quickly. Low probability they resign Lee. Hurns is not worth his contract so is a possible cut candidate (or renegotiate and reduced role). They have no TE of note. I think there's a stronger chance for Westbrook to earn a role short term than some guys you have earlier, particularly Godwin and Henderson. You're really saying in 2 years there's a decent chance a 3rd round receiver (Henderson) will take over for a Pro Bowl player (Thomas or Sanders, whichever falls first) after he is cut. I don't think that happens in the NFL very much. More likely scenarios are the Pro Bowl player sticks around or if one's gone they draft over Henderson. Jax is more malleable short term given it's Hurns and Lee not Sanders and Thomas.

thriftyrocker said:

I think it will change quickly. Low probability they resign Lee. Hurns is not worth his contract so is a possible cut candidate (or renegotiate and reduced role). They have no TE of note. I think there's a stronger chance for Westbrook to earn a role short term than some guys you have earlier, particularly Godwin and Henderson. You're really saying in 2 years there's a decent chance a 3rd round receiver (Henderson) will take over for a Pro Bowl player (Thomas or Sanders, whichever falls first) after he is cut. I don't think that happens in the NFL very much. More likely scenarios are the Pro Bowl player sticks around or if one's gone they draft over Henderson. Jax is more malleable short term given it's Hurns and Lee not Sanders and Thomas.

Click to expand...

Teams play a lot of 3 WR sets so I see more opportunity for Henderson without either of Thomas or Sanders needing to move on or decline. Similar for Godwin.

Maybe your right and Lee moves on after this season. I still see Jacksonville being more committed to the run and less likely to have the passing volume that I think the Bucs and Broncos will have though.

I certainly am not entrenched on this though and as I already mentioned I could see Westbrook being in the same tier as these players.

DeDe Westbrook has understandably dropped in value, in part due to his landing spot, but more for character concerns. When a player is (reportedly) kicked out of a Combine interview and described by an NFL scout as a "degenerate", you take notice. On the field, Westbrook is among the best in this class. He has excellent speed and acceleration, strong hands and a competitive fire. He needs to add some muscle to his thin frame and could struggle against press coverage.  On talent alone, Westbrook belongs in the top ten of this class.  I have him just outside my top ten, but if he can stay focused and out of trouble, he could quickly find a role in the Jags' offense.  I have been adding Westbrook in every rookie draft, so I clearly still have him rated higher than others.  

Random thoughts:

I know it is a crowded situation right now, but Taywan Taylor has already generated a lot of positive buzz. He and Corey Davis could be pretty exciting in a year or 2. Chad Williams and Kenny Golladay get bumps because of the golden opportunities they are walking right into. 

People really like Dede Westbrook? Other than straight line speed, his pro day numbers weren't good. He dominated in college, but he did it as a 22-23 year old. I am always very skeptical of old college players because there is a significant physical advantage that a 22 or 23 year old has over a 20 year old. Then he got drafted into the worst possible situation. Bortles is a mess at QB, the team wants to become a run 1st team and there are likely 3 young WRs ahead of him on the depth chart. 

I love Carlos Henderson's talent, but Sanders and Thomas are going to dominate the passing game for the near future. Also, the team needs something to change at QB before investing in that passing game will be a worthwhile move. I do trust that Elway will be aggressive in getting it fixed though and Sanders is likely gone after 2018. 

Mike Williams isn't even the best WR named Williams on his team.  

Taywan Taylor is my preferred target. I have a predraft bias as Corey Davis was the only WR I had ahead of him. Davis didn't workout at the combine or his proday, so I became even more comfortable with Taylor as my guy. If Tennessee had not drafted Davis, I think Taylor would be getting drafted in the early 2nd at the latest. Most of my rookie drafts happened before Decker was signed when he was looking at competing with Rashard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Harry Douglas and Davis for playing time and he was going really late. Decker is on a 1 year deal, and there is still the possibility that he outplays Davis. Either way significant playing is not outside of his reach.

socrates said:

DeDe Westbrook has understandably dropped in value, in part due to his landing spot, but more for character concerns. When a player is (reportedly) kicked out of a Combine interview and described by an NFL scout as a "degenerate", you take notice. On the field, Westbrook is among the best in this class. He has excellent speed and acceleration, strong hands and a competitive fire. He needs to add some muscle to his thin frame and could struggle against press coverage.  On talent alone, Westbrook belongs in the top ten of this class.  I have him just outside my top ten, but if he can stay focused and out of trouble, he could quickly find a role in the Jags' offense.  I have been adding Westbrook in every rookie draft, so I clearly still have him rated higher than others.  

Click to expand...

You bring up a good point in regards to Westbrook not interviewing well with teams, I was aware of that at the time I did my rankings but had since forgotten about that.

I don't know if Westbrook has the frame to put on weight and life is going to be tough in the NFL at less than 180 pounds. 

Football Jones said:

Samuel is someone I found kind of hard evaluate, both as a player as well as his situation. Therefore, I knew he would always go before I'd feel comfortable taking him (unless it was crazy late). His evaluations by draft gurus were inconsistent, as well. It'll be interesting to see how Samuel develops.

The most underrated WR to me is Dede Westbrook (by far). Most NFL evaluators consider him a top-50 talent, but his indiscretions really knocked his stock down. Maybe more so than any player in the draft. If Westbrook walks the straight and narrow and applies himself, he's got stud-type raw ability, IMO. The strange thing is Westbrook virtually has no buzz in the FF community (although, he was sidelined with an injury in mini-camp). I'm the only one who seems high on him, LOL.

Click to expand...

I get the reservations with Samuel and he's tough to evaluate because he spent a lot of time at RB and doesn't have the polish at WR. But I think he's the type of kid and athlete you want to bet on. He's still just 20 years old. Ran a 4.31 at the combine. He's strong for a WR and almost 200 pounds. I could definitely be wrong, but I think he's going to have a nice career and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up better than McCaffrey.

Dan Hindery said:

I don't know if Westbrook has the frame to put on weight and life is going to be tough in the NFL at less than 180 pounds. 

Click to expand...

He measured at 5'11.5" at the combine. Very close to 6 feet so I am not sure why you think his frame couldn't support more weight that this?

By comparison Curtis Samuel is 5'11" flat. So technically a bit shorter than Westbrook is. Weighed 196 lbs at that height.

Which brings us back to the measured speed times and if they are more impressive at a higher weight or not.

Samuel ran a faster 40 time while weighing 18 lbs more than Westbrook.

Biabreakable said:

He measured at 5'11.5" at the combine. Very close to 6 feet so I am not sure why you think his frame couldn't support more weight that this?

By comparison Curtis Samuel is 5'11" flat. So technically a bit shorter than Westbrook is. Weighed 196 lbs at that height.

Which brings us back to the measured speed times and if they are more impressive at a higher weight or not.

Samuel ran a faster 40 time while weighing 18 lbs more than Westbrook.

Click to expand...

When I say frame, it's more about whether a guy looks like he can naturally fill out or not. Nothing to do with height. 

To me Westbrook looks like a naturally skinny guy who is going to have a hard time putting on much more muscle:

https://cdn-s3.si.com/s3fs-public/styles/marquee_large_2x/public/2016/12/08/dede-westbrook-case-for-top.jpg?itok=cozP5agn

https://cdn2.newsok.biz/cache/r960-f6dc0737f5eb3247d483563de392b8f3.jpg

http://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/494103240.jpg

I agree Westbrook looks a bit skinny. I would also assume that players preparing for the combine through trial and error try to arrive at their ideal running weight in that process.

D-Jax is 5'10" / 175lbs. I see a lot of similarities between Westbrook and him. Undersized, headcase, very fast, somewhat one-dimensional game, but that dimension has a place in the NFL on the right team with the right coaching staff.

Rookie_Whisperer said:

D-Jax is 5'10" / 175lbs. I see a lot of similarities between Westbrook and him. Undersized, headcase, very fast, somewhat one-dimensional game, but that dimension has a place in the NFL on the right team with the right coaching staff.

Click to expand...

Westbrook isn't a one trick pony. He can win on a variety of different routes besides the deep ball and the screen passes. He goes over the middle and can win that way.

One thing about his college production that I think deserves some context, is that opposing defenses were often more focused on stopping the run than they were stopping Westbrook. So he gets wide open in part because of that. 

The same would not be true with many of these other WR who were the main focal point of their offenses, and thus more attention from the defense.

Maybe not for this year, but down the road I really like golladay, Tate and jones aren't old but aren't spring chickens either. Size/speed and HUGE hands, A real late flyer I like is Robert Davis, for the same reasons. Superb athlete, and the wr core in wash could change quickly with Pryor on a 1 yr contract and crowder getting closer to fa. 

Rookie_Whisperer said:

D-Jax is 5'10" / 175lbs. I see a lot of similarities between Westbrook and him. Undersized, headcase, very fast, somewhat one-dimensional game, but that dimension has a place in the NFL on the right team with the right coaching staff.

Click to expand...

He is not Jackson fast. I know they had similar 40s but DJax was a combine number and Westbrook was a Pro Day. We know those Pro Day numbers run hot. If DJax had ran at his Pro Day, he prolly would have been 4.3 flat.

Biabreakable said:

Westbrook isn't a one trick pony. He can win on a variety of different routes besides the deep ball and the screen passes. He goes over the middle and can win that way.

One thing about his college production that I think deserves some context, is that opposing defenses were often focused on stopping the run than they were stopping Westbrook. So he gets wide open in part because of that. 

The same would not be true with many of these other WR who were the main focal point of their offenses, and thus more attention from the defense.

Click to expand...

The trick I'm referring to (which I hedged with "somewhat") is speed, which is what is going to earn him playing time in the NFL. He doesn't lose many foot races, but he isn't going to make a living taking big shots over the middle in the NFL IMO. I agree though that he can take a screen to the house at any moment and he runs good crisp routes with natural hands.  To me, the post draft presser by the coach and GM said all you need to know about him though until he makes an opportunity for himself. He is a patience play, but one that I have added in 5 out of 11 leagues so far and a def target of mine. Unfortunately I don't always have picks in the 3rd or early 4th to take him.

Snorkelson said:

Maybe not for this year, but down the road I really like golladay, Tate and jones aren't old but aren't spring chickens either. Size/speed and HUGE hands, A real late flyer I like is Robert Davis, for the same reasons. Superb athlete, and the wr core in wash could change quickly with Pryor on a 1 yr contract and crowder getting closer to fa. 

Click to expand...

Neither is Golladay. Kidding obviously but he will 24 this season. 

Rookie_Whisperer said:

The trick I'm referring to (which I hedged with "somewhat") is speed, which is what is going to earn him playing time in the NFL. He doesn't lose many foot races, but he isn't going to make a living taking big shots over the middle in the NFL IMO. I agree though that he can take a screen to the house at any moment and he runs good crisp routes with natural hands.  To me, the post draft presser by the coach and GM said all you need to know about him though until he makes an opportunity for himself. He is a patience play, but one that I have added in 5 out of 11 leagues so far and a def target of mine. Unfortunately I don't always have picks in the 3rd or early 4th to take him.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification and sorry for the misunderstanding.

Westbrook is the next WR on my list after the guys I mentioned earlier, WR14.

Two big on-the-field concerns about him. First, he didn't get open very reliably - he had bad numbers in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception analysis. Second, he's really thin. Guys like Antonio Brown and TY Hilton were on the thin side coming into the league, and Westbrook would've needed to be 15 pounds heavier to be at the same combine BMI as they were. DeSean Jackson and Sidney Rice are the only two somewhat-successful NFL WRs who entered the NFL since 2006 with a BMI similar to Westbrook's.

Westbrook also didn't run as fast as guys like DJax or Will Fuller. When a guy is far from the prototypical build, elite speed can be a trump card that still lets him still succeed in the NFL. Westbrook's speed is good, but not good enough to reduce my concerns about his build by that much.

Biabreakable said:

He measured at 5'11.5" at the combine. Very close to 6 feet so I am not sure why you think his frame couldn't support more weight that this?

By comparison Curtis Samuel is 5'11" flat. So technically a bit shorter than Westbrook is. Weighed 196 lbs at that height.

Which brings us back to the measured speed times and if they are more impressive at a higher weight or not.

Samuel ran a faster 40 time while weighing 18 lbs more than Westbrook.

Click to expand...

In the case of the combine, a bigger guy running the same time is significant because it reveals their speed can hold up at a higher weight. It's not always the case but typically smaller players will try to add weight while they are playing in the NFL. It's likely that added weight will negatively impact some of their athleticism. If the player is already big enough to fit into the protyoical size for his position, then it's more likely they try to maintain that size and retain the combine athleticism. 

Ilov80s said:

In the case of the combine, a bigger guy running the same time is significant because it reveals their speed can hold up at a higher weight. It's not always the case but typically smaller players will try to add weight while they are playing in the NFL. It's likely that added weight will negatively impact some of their athleticism. If the player is already big enough to fit into the protyoical size for his position, then it's more likely they try to maintain that size and retain the combine athleticism. 

Click to expand...

This makes sense in the context of what Dan is saying about Westbrooks frame. As an aside it also might speak to Westbrooks work ethic. He looks skinny and needs to spend more time in the weight room comparing him to other football players. This matters for things like blocking and beating the jam. It is just another wrinkle that makes me question how Westbrook takes to coaching, as well as some of the other indicators regarding that, such as him not playing division one until later in his college career and the bad interviews.

A year in the NFL he has enough height that I would think he can add some weight to his frame. Not sure if that would have a negative impact on his speed or not. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't.

Contrasting Samuel and Westbrook is an example of a player being 18 lbs heavier and being faster. Espcially when we consider that we are comparing combine times to pro day times, that usually are a bit faster at pro day than the combine. Muscle weighs more than fat (or nothing). I think every player is unique and still skeptical if adding or losing weight actually has an impact on their speed.

Biabreakable said:

This makes sense in the context of what Dan is saying about Westbrooks frame. As an aside it also might speak to Westbrooks work ethic. He looks skinny and needs to spend more time in the weight room comparing him to other football players. This matters for things like blocking and beating the jam. It is just another wrinkle that makes me question how Westbrook takes to coaching, as well as some of the other indicators regarding that, such as him not playing division one until later in his college career and the bad interviews.

A year in the NFL he has enough height that I would think he can add some weight to his frame. Not sure if that would have a negative impact on his speed or not. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't.

Contrasting Samuel and Westbrook is an example of a player being 18 lbs heavier and being faster. Espcially when we consider that we are comparing combine times to pro day times, that usually are a bit faster at pro day than the combine. Muscle weighs more than fat (or nothing). I think every player is unique and still skeptical if adding or losing weight actually has an impact on their speed.

Click to expand...

Especially given his age. He will be 24 this season. 

I can't believe how negative everyone is on Ross. I know the injury history is a big concern, but his film is crazy good, he's combine numbers were historic, he was 17 when he became a regular contributor, he dominated at a major conference and he was a top 10 pick in the draft. He's what people want Tyreek Hill to be. I think he could have a Brandin Cooks type season as a rookie.