Anarchy99

2017 Anarchy League 2 Thread - The Inspector Clouseau League

262 posts in this topic

8 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I have no problem taking Gronk and he certainly carries a lot of risk. You don't win the Home Run Derby by hitting singles. 

The best Gronk has to offer and guaranteed playoff points puts all the other tight ends in the rear view mirror. Factor in that 35 or more tight ends are going to get selected and there really is not that much to debate. 

However, if Gronk misses a big chunk of time, that Anarchy team is done for. 

No guts no glory.

I also think the Patriots are on a mission from god to pad passing stats. Gronk is a big part of that.

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:stirspot:

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

No guts no glory.

I also think the Patriots are on a mission from god to pad passing stats. Gronk is a big part of that.

Thanks. Now I'm going to have to watch that this weekend.

I ran out of gas. I... I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!

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27 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

However, if Gronk misses a big chunk of time, that Anarchy team is done for. 

Pretty much the case for any high 1st-round pick in a draft-and-done format, though, I think. Especially in a 16-teamer, you ain't winning or even threatening that closely if you lose DJ or AB for a large chunk of time any more than if you lose Gronk.

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Just now, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Pretty much the case for any high 1st-round pick in a draft-and-done format, though, I think. Especially in a 16-teamer, you ain't winning or even threatening that closely if you lose DJ or AB for a large chunk of time any more than if you lose Gronk.

Certainly true, but we have seen Gronk miss a ton of time already. The guy's had more surgeries than Frankenstein. 

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Certainly true, but we have seen Gronk miss a ton of time already. The guy's had more surgeries than Frankenstein. 

:lmao: I've gotta remember that line.

IMO, in general, if you subscribe more to the school that "most injuries are random", you take Gronk in all formats and sleep well at night. If you're more in the "health is a skill" camp, you put him on your DND list in this format.

I'm somewhere in the middle - there are clearly some guys whose bodies aren't cut out for the NFL (the Percy Harvins and Dion Lewises of the world, plus anyone with recurring concussion issues) but I think those are fewer in number than the average person would believe. Gronk (along with guys like Tyler Eifert and Keenan Allen) are interesting and close-to-borderline test cases - you could make arguments either way for all of them, but their upside when healthy is enough for me to overlook the risk that I'm wrong putting them in the first bucket rather than the second.

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It's an interesting dichotomy. Some guys get nagging injuries like hamstring pulls, sprained ankles, broken fingers, or such. Gronk has had major back surgery multiple times now. You have to start worrying if one more awkward hit and he'll be done altogether or if he will adjust his play to be more conservative to take less damage. I doubt either of those will happen, but I think they carry some concern. As stated many times, any game could be a player's last game, but IMO Gronk has a greater risk of being knocked out for the season than other guys. So while other players might have a 1% chance of going down for the season in any game, Gronk might carry a 10% risk of going on IR. Still unlikely, but definitely a much greater risk.

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If you think that multiplier is 10x for Gronk vs. the average NFL player, you should never have him on your team for any reason. If I'm spitballing, I'd put the multiplier at, what, 2x, maybe 2.5x? Probably still too high a number to risk taking him 1.01 in this format, but it's at least defensible.

The big risk for Gronk w/r/t other names I listed is that the next crippling hit could end his career vs. just his season - but while it's why I'd never pay market value for him in dynasty, that's not a consideration here.

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Timing for injuries matters, and an injury at the end of the season is less noticeable. But consider:

2009 - Ruptured disc at U or Arizona
2011 - Ankle injury in post season that required surgery
2012 - Broken arm with complications and 4 surgeries
2013 - Back surgery and torn ACL
2016 - Back surgery

That's 5 major injuries that if they had happened at the start of the year likely would have cost him all of, if not all of, the season.

Running the numbers off of that, Gronk made it through the season uninjured 3 times in 8 years. That's 37.5% of the time.

In a 16 game season, that works out to a 6% chance per game of him ending up hurt (and by extension potentially on IR). (Multiply .94 x .94 and repeat 14 times = 39.5%).

The math is probably off a little bit as I did not account for playoff games, so it likely scales down to a 5% chance each game that Gronk goes down and may not get back up for the rest of the season. That's not making up numbers . . . that's the actual track record for Gronk.

I don't know if being injured more frequently equates to getting injured again more frequently, so that is a leap of faith people have to take in drafting Gronk. I don't think Gronk is more apt to need more ankle surgery or tear an ACL because he has already. However, the back surgeries concern me, as there are only so many times you can mess with your spine and bounce back.


 

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Gronk is obviously high risk/high reward.  I took him first pick last year and it didn't work out.  Was able to finish 5th.  At the time I thought he was the highest value.  I don't think I would of done it this year after another down year, but time will tell.

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20 minutes ago, coordinator said:

Gronk is obviously high risk/high reward.  I took him first pick last year and it didn't work out.  Was able to finish 5th.  At the time I thought he was the highest value.  I don't think I would of done it this year after another down year, but time will tell.

If Gronk had lasted the whole season and given you another 375 points (like he had scored in the past), you would have finished second and within striking distance of first. Not many guys out there that can score 500 points.

Edited by Anarchy99

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3 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Pretty much the case for any high 1st-round pick in a draft-and-done format, though, I think. Especially in a 16-teamer, you ain't winning or even threatening that closely if you lose DJ or AB for a large chunk of time any more than if you lose Gronk.

I disagree with this. 

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With so many pieces to play with in the NE offense no way I take Gronk early.  I think the days of him dominating the position and the NE game plan on a weekly basis are long gone.  Just IMO.

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5 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

With so many pieces to play with in the NE offense no way I take Gronk early.  I think the days of him dominating the position and the NE game plan on a weekly basis are long gone.  Just IMO.

The best I can assess the NE situation is we'll have to wait and see. I would guess they will play Gronk less than in season's past, but that may be due to being up 30 points (so he sits the 4th quarter), sitting the last week or two of the season (locked up top seed), or if they use someone else to block more on running plays (so he could still see a similar amount of targets). 

Looking at 2014, the trio of Gronk, Edelman, and LaFell totaled 384 targets. IMO, Gronk-Edelman-Cooks should combine for 350 targets. That probably leaves 250-260 targets for everyone else. I tend to think the RB targets will go down with the addition of Cooks (NE backs had 130 last year). So maybe 90 targets to RB's.

Amendola becomes an after thought with Mitchell and Hogan getting the majority of the leftover targets (call it 100). 350 + 90 + 100 = 540. That leaves 60-70 targets for Amendola, Allen, and bit players.

That's my guess, but who knows how it will play out.

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injuries and zeroes are killers. This thread got me thinking about my almosts and then an injury.

Year one IIRC I lost by an injury. Then worst of all I lost to Donny T by 30 points for second.

Another early year we were 30 points between 1st, 2nd and 3rd..One injury away by anyone of us.

That kept us close.

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Not sure what up with Jeremyx13 but this kind of stinks.  I even tried texting the number on the Anarchy site but no help.

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33 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Not sure what up with Jeremyx13 but this kind of stinks.  I even tried texting the number on the Anarchy site but no help.

How about pinging that guy holding up league one for 16+ hours.

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Can we slide him to 16 and move on?

:lmao:

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2 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Can we slide him to 16 and move on?

I suppose David could do that. Based on what hasn't happened thus far, it might be a pretty short trip though.

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3 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Can we slide him to 16 and move on?

Done.

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Yea, had to be grown up this week, lol.  I see all leagues now and will be on top of it.  Just like the man to push me back to the bus.

 

edit:  site said it was my turn to draft so I did, but it was sinrman who got player. 

Edited by jeremyx13
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50 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Done.

guess need to swap me back since I own sinrman on my mfl account

 

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The team info on the league site should be right. I switched the info for each team. Let me know if that is messed up.

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52 minutes ago, jeremyx13 said:

Yea, had to be grown up this week, lol.  I see all leagues now and will be on top of it.  Just like the man to push me back to the bus.

Glad to hear it wasn't an emergency or something worse came up.

Easier to snooze in the back anyways. You just don't want to lose your stop. ;)

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@Anarchy99 your inbox is full as you are such a popular guy as well as a #### hoarder.

I was just curious what the status of the bastard love child is. I believe that Borden has been around but I have not seen this one start yet.

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Will get to ABLC eventually. Trying to get the regular leagues to be quasi functional first. At this point I don't even know if that is possible. 

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Errr did I have Elliott queued up and that's why he was taken at 1.06?

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League of Not Draft Champions

:crazy:

:lmao:

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3
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When did Anarchy 2 become the special needs league? Forgive my insensitivity. That would be insulting to the specially needy being compared to you bozos.  

Sinrman on the clock. What an epic cluster . . .

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1 hour ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

League of Not Draft Champions

:crazy:

:lmao:

League of Champions.

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We don't give out trophies here.

So earn one first in this watered down League 2 before you criticize it.

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5 hours ago, Sinrman said:

Errr did I have Elliott queued up and that's why he was taken at 1.06?

someone poke @Sinrman 

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I heard that maybe there might be a draft around these parts. Have any of you seen it?

:tumbleweed:

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