Anarchy99

2017 Anarchy League 2 Thread - The Inspector Clouseau League

262 posts in this topic

Bia.. You should see the No Mercy draft I'm in.  A month now and counting.

Edited by There it is

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Sorry, was out golfing all day.  Didn't know wtf was going on and if I was up or if the 1.06 was my pick.  :loco:

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On ‎7‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 11:16 AM, Anarchy99 said:

It's an interesting dichotomy. Some guys get nagging injuries like hamstring pulls, sprained ankles, broken fingers, or such. Gronk has had major back surgery multiple times now. You have to start worrying if one more awkward hit and he'll be done altogether or if he will adjust his play to be more conservative to take less damage. I doubt either of those will happen, but I think they carry some concern. As stated many times, any game could be a player's last game, but IMO Gronk has a greater risk of being knocked out for the season than other guys. So while other players might have a 1% chance of going down for the season in any game, Gronk might carry a 10% risk of going on IR. Still unlikely, but definitely a much greater risk.

Tony Romo a year ago and he wasn't even hit hard. The phrase "accident waiting to happen" is more about being stupid and placing yourself in the wrong spot, but all those back surgeries. I prefer for someone else to reap the benefit of that risk.

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36 minutes ago, Sinrman said:

Sorry, was out golfing all day.  Didn't know wtf was going on and if I was up or if the 1.06 was my pick.  :loco:

Wasn't your fault.

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20 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Tony Romo a year ago and he wasn't even hit hard. The phrase "accident waiting to happen" is more about being stupid and placing yourself in the wrong spot, but all those back surgeries. I prefer for someone else to reap the benefit of that risk.

Romo maybe didnt have his clock cleaned....but that tackle and the way Romo was positioned crunching him was a pretty nasty....

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Love these picks. Nothing gets past you guys.

Fiddles Howard is RB3 in this format IMHO. What a steal.

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58 minutes ago, There it is said:

Love these picks. Nothing gets past you guys.

Fiddles Howard is RB3 in this format IMHO. What a steal.

Different strokes for different folks, I suppose. Howard ranked 9th last year. IMO, the Bears QB situation won't help Howard any. And it would take an act of Congress to get Chicago to the post season. IMO, borderline Top 10 backs are not as enticing as in regular leagues. 

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I understand the #'s look bad, but in my insane opinion and this format I have him ending up RB#3.

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12 minutes ago, There it is said:

I understand the #'s look bad, but in my insane opinion and this format I have him ending up RB#3.

I'm not sure science can cure what you are afflicted with. Thoughts and prayers.

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4 minutes ago, There it is said:

I won this league twice.

 

 

Before I got sick.

You could have won this league every year. That still won't change where Howard ends up ranking this year.

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Thanks inspector you just cured me. I realized I haven't done well since I won.

Maybe I shouldn't listen to the voices in my head.

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4 hours ago, There it is said:

I understand the #'s look bad, but in my insane opinion and this format I have him ending up RB#3.

I am curious to see what numbers you are considering that would lead to this outcome?

I could see it happening, but Howard would need a hell of a lot of TD for that to happen I think (possible I suppose).

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Howard had 1611/7 last year and ended the season ranked 9th . . . 90 points out of the 3 spot. 

The Bears have two unproven QB to chose from on a team that ranked Bottom 5 in scoring and lost their best receiver. The offense only scored 29 total TD, which was half of what the Falcons offense scored. And Chicago will be watching the playoffs with the rest of us. Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see the love for Howard as a Top 3 back. 

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Most sites gives general advice to the public. Mine are for me. I live or die on it. remember this is a 0 pts pre reception for RB. Ephasis on 0 PPR in this format I Have Howard #3RB.

I got him in No Mercy same 0 PPR.

We'll see at the end of the year.

So it is written so let it be.

44 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I am curious to see what numbers you are considering that would lead to this outcome?

I could see it happening, but Howard would need a hell of a lot of TD for that to happen I think (possible I suppose).

Sorry David nothing personal.

Edited by There it is
apoligy

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If you could share specific numbers on this, perhaps after the draft is concluded. I am curious.

How many TD for example? But again we are barely getting started here, so perhaps something to discuss at a later time.

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My immediate thought on the Howard pick was to be skeptical for the same reasons others posted, primarily due to low playoff probability. But I went to look this up out of curiosity:

  • 2016: RB1 (Johnson) and RB5 (McCoy) had no playoff games. RB2 (Elliott) and RB 3 (Bell) had one or more playoff games, but each played in a total of exactly 16 games.
  • 2015: RB1 (Freeman), RB3 (Martin), and RB5 (Deangelo) had no playoff games. RB2 (Peterson) had 1 playoff game, in which he scored 5.8 points; he would have finished as RB2 without that extra game.

So it appears to me that the playoff probability is not very predictive of Anarchy finish. Furthermore, there has been a lot of turnover: 18 different RBs finished in the Anarchy top 10 in 2015-16. So there should be no reason to think that a guy like Howard cannot jump into the top 5.

Not saying I expect him to be RB3, but I don't think it is quite as far-fetched as some have made it out to be.

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JWB you have pulled out quite a few on us in the past.

You sniped so many right in front of me. I went in and changed my password to Just Lose Baby.:D

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3 hours ago, There it is said:

JWB you have pulled out quite a few on us in the past.

You sniped so many right in front of me. I went in and changed my password to Just Lose Baby.:D

:lmao: 

I wish I had better results to show for it. I lost in the Super Bowl to @Duckboy once ( :rant:) but otherwise have not finished higher than 6th. Definitely some bad luck in there, but we've all experienced that. It has actually been sobering to me about my fantasy skills/knowledge.

But that's why I keep doing it. I like to think it helps me in my later drafts, where I tend to get better results. 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

I like to think it helps me in my later drafts, where I tend to get better results. 

It definitely does and it makes you look deep.

Now a 12 team draft is nothing. We are prepared after this. Maybe that's why we stick together.

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On 7/22/2017 at 6:51 PM, jeremyx13 said:

guess need to swap me back since I own sinrman on my mfl account

 

Dude...lets go....its a rain delay every time you are up so far....

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Just now, Stinkin Ref said:

Dude...lets go....its a rain delay every time you are up so far....

:lmao:

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On 7/22/2017 at 6:31 PM, jeremyx13 said:

Yea, had to be grown up this week, lol.  I see all leagues now and will be on top of it.  Just like the man to push me back to the bus.

 

edit:  site said it was my turn to draft so I did, but it was sinrman who got player. 

So much for being on top of it...please set up notifications....you havent checked the site in 14 hours....if you have too much adulting going on for these things we can find a replacement for you

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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5 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

So much for being on top of it...please set up notifications....

YES PLEASE!!

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I wanted Brandin Cooks but David beat me to him. Doug Baldwin and Sammy Watkins still nice though. I just think Cooks has a bit more upside than Baldwin. I also see Cooks as possible insurance for if/when Gronk misses games, but this was not to be.

In league 6 I did get Cooks and Watkins (already have Gronk there too). Part of it is different draft position (I got Cooks with pick 2.10) but this is what I mean about being able to get the guys I am targeting more often in league 6 than I can here.

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Baldwin was great value. I had him next in my pre-draft list after Jordy at 2.2.

Allen was the least surprising pick of the draft so far.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Baldwin was great value. I had him next in my pre-draft list after Jordy at 2.2.

Allen was the least surprising pick of the draft so far.

I predicted Tyreek was gonna be Ref's 3rd-round pick before the draft even started. Does that count?

 

8 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I wanted Brandin Cooks but David beat me to him. Doug Baldwin and Sammy Watkins still nice though. I just think Cooks has a bit more upside than Baldwin. I also see Cooks as possible insurance for if/when Gronk misses games, but this was not to be.

In league 6 I did get Cooks and Watkins (already have Gronk there too). Part of it is different draft position (I got Cooks with pick 2.10) but this is what I mean about being able to get the guys I am targeting more often in league 6 than I can here.

Maybe we're just letting you have those guys because we want nothing to do with them. :P

(In reality, I like the Gronk-Cooks stack in this format for exactly the reason you mentioned, even though I want no part of either at their individual ADPs, if that makes sense.)

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:
3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Allen was the least surprising pick of the draft so far.

I predicted Tyreek was gonna be Ref's 3rd-round pick before the draft even started. Does that count?

The reference is to the fact that @CalBear always looks to draft Cal players when he can get them at close to reasonable value, and his draft slot was in the right area for Allen.

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will comment more about the Hill pick after my next one....but in the meantime will absorb the deserved roasting

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Sinrman figured out yet that he has B2B picks in this draft?  Made one at 11:30AM and then hasnt been back..

I know, he's pacing himself. 

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6 minutes ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

Sinrman figured out yet that he has B2B picks in this draft?  Made one at 11:30AM and then hasnt been back..

I know, he's pacing himself. 

I am pretty sure he pre-drafted both picks but only one lasted until him. I already emailed him.

I liked you guys way better when you bashed people over their picks . . . not their lack of picks.

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am pretty sure he pre-drafted both picks but only one lasted until him. I already emailed him.

I liked you guys way better when you bashed people over their picks . . . not their lack of picks.

my bad then. Apologies Sinrman.

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On 7/23/2017 at 3:08 PM, There it is said:

Bia.. You should see the No Mercy draft I'm in.  A month now and counting.

which league?  im in great white.  fun leagues although I wish there were more trades.

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On 7/24/2017 at 10:37 AM, Just Win Baby said:

My immediate thought on the Howard pick was to be skeptical for the same reasons others posted, primarily due to low playoff probability. But I went to look this up out of curiosity:

  • 2016: RB1 (Johnson) and RB5 (McCoy) had no playoff games. RB2 (Elliott) and RB 3 (Bell) had one or more playoff games, but each played in a total of exactly 16 games.
  • 2015: RB1 (Freeman), RB3 (Martin), and RB5 (Deangelo) had no playoff games. RB2 (Peterson) had 1 playoff game, in which he scored 5.8 points; he would have finished as RB2 without that extra game.

So it appears to me that the playoff probability is not very predictive of Anarchy finish. Furthermore, there has been a lot of turnover: 18 different RBs finished in the Anarchy top 10 in 2015-16. So there should be no reason to think that a guy like Howard cannot jump into the top 5.

Not saying I expect him to be RB3, but I don't think it is quite as far-fetched as some have made it out to be.

Ya this analysis matches mine.  Good work JWB.  Kidding I spend barely anytime researching fantasy anymore.  Shoot from the hip.

Edited by Fiddles

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16 minutes ago, Fiddles said:

which league?  im in great white.  fun leagues although I wish there were more trades.

I can't even remember the last time I got offered a trade in Great White.

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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I can't even remember the last time I got offered a trade in Great White.

whats your team? im white russians

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38 minutes ago, Fiddles said:

whats your team? im white russians

Hack the Bone. I barely even remember who I drafted. It seems so long ago.

Using FBG Rate My Team (which is the only criteria that matters), the 4 staff "experts" have your average chance of making the playoffs at 62.5% / 46.25% / 27.25 %. For my team, it's 76.25% / 62.75% / 48.75%.

Based on that, it is clear that I am going to stomp your soul, you will wish you never took up fantasy football, and you will probably wish you never were born. But good luck on the season.

Edited by Anarchy99
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10 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

will comment more about the Hill pick after my next one....but in the meantime will absorb the deserved roasting

At 3.09 I liked Pryor and Hill more than the other options at WR....plan going in was Hill/Pryor at 3-4 turn if I had a draft slot in the back half....(something I am leaning towards in home drafts this year)....I am bullish on Pryor this year, even more so than Hill at this point....saw in the other drafts that others don't really seem to share my thoughts on Pryor and odds were I could get him at 4.08...so Hill was the pick at 3.09 as I didn't think Hill would survive the turn.....all of that almost got derailed as I almost pulled the trigger on going TE with both 3.09 and 4.08 and locking down a dominant TE trifecta with Graham, Bennett, and then one of like Eifert/Walker/etc that fell there.....and also depleting the TE pool for others...ultimately chickened out and stuck with plan A.....meh...we'll see...

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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  • Just missed on Indy TMQB at the end of the 4th. The risk would be worth the reward at this point. Nice pick Anarchy   :rant:

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