What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Trip's Top 5 Redraft Value Plays - Pre-Training Camp Edition (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
With big money online leagues kicking off, there isn't nearly enough chat about players representing value on this board (nobody cares about your hometown dynasty league and the inherent homerism within the player threads)

Time to get the party started...standard scoring.

1.  Spencer's Ware/Kareem Hunt - so you are saying I can nearly lock up the potent KC running game with a couple of Middle to late middle rounders...yes please!  

CBS Avg Ranking -RB #30, RB #32

ESPN Avg Ranking - RB #18, RB #45

2.  Joe Williams - my personal opinion is that at a minimum williams will be seeing 100+ carries, with an opportunity to overtake Hyde by the second half of the season.  With skeletor Jr at the helm and and an extremely low ADP, he'll be on most of my squads....here's to hoping he has a quiet preseason.   Shhhhh...

CBS Avg Ranking - #45

ESPN Avg Ranking - Not in the top 66 RBs!!

3.  Phillip Rivers - #7 in points per start last year (4 pt TDs) and yet he is going substantially lower.  Not a sexy pick, but he's still in his prime and his weapons have improved.  Value city fellas. 

CBS Avg Ranking - QB #13

ESPN Avg Ranking - QB #14

4.  Martavis Bryant - was downright explosive in 2015.  That upside is too much to pass up at his current price tag.  Reward easily worth the risk.

CBS Avg Ranking - WR #26

ESPN Avg Ranking - WR #34

5.  Cameron Meredith - Finished #10 in points per start not to mention finishing the season with 5 straight solid performances.  Who else are the Bears going to throw the ball to, Kevin White?

CBS Avg Ranking - WR #38

ESPN Avg Ranking - WR #46

Honorable Mentions:

Carson Palmer

Quincy Enunwa

Doug Martin

Samaje Perine

Kenneth Dixon

You're up coach Otis :coffee:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah I can get on board with most of these, with the exception of Joe Williams. He just feels like all narrative hype to me and not much else. Now, maybe that's enough and it gets him a foot in the door in terms of opportunity and he runs with it, but it's quite possible that he's just not very good and is simply a JAG who got some preseason/draft hype. It's not like he has crazy measurables or anything to back up the hype. I can't recall anyone singing his praises pre-draft and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we look back next year and he's seen as a wasted second round rookie pick. I find it interesting that people seem to assume that he's some awesome receiving WR and he has the edge over Hyde immediately due to that skill - from there (given the narrative) it's easy to assume he's in line to overtake Hyde. But from what I've seen and read, it seems like he isn't really all that great in that area either.

 
Yeah I can get on board with most of these, with the exception of Joe Williams. He just feels like all narrative hype to me and not much else. Now, maybe that's enough and it gets him a foot in the door in terms of opportunity and he runs with it, but it's quite possible that he's just not very good and is simply a JAG who got some preseason/draft hype. It's not like he has crazy measurables or anything to back up the hype. I can't recall anyone singing his praises pre-draft and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we look back next year and he's seen as a wasted second round rookie pick. I find it interesting that people seem to assume that he's some awesome receiving WR and he has the edge over Hyde immediately due to that skill - from there (given the narrative) it's easy to assume he's in line to overtake Hyde. But from what I've seen and read, it seems like he isn't really all that great in that area either.
I tend to agree with this analysis, but Hyde has a history of missing games due to injury, and this might be the thing that opens up the door for Williams where, if he succeeds while Hyde is nursing injury, the team may not look back in locking Williams in as the starter.

I actually think Hyde and Williams -- if both stay healthy -- will be a solid NFL (if not fantasy) tandem. Hyde is more of a power gap runner that will likely do well in the outside zone of Shanny's O scheme, and Williams will bring that explosive straight-ahead and elusive quickness and burst that made him such a force in college. Add Hightower for 3rd down short yardage and pass catching, and I think the SF ground game will improve year over year. 

 
Yeah I can get on board with most of these, with the exception of Joe Williams. He just feels like all narrative hype to me and not much else. Now, maybe that's enough and it gets him a foot in the door in terms of opportunity and he runs with it, but it's quite possible that he's just not very good and is simply a JAG who got some preseason/draft hype. It's not like he has crazy measurables or anything to back up the hype. I can't recall anyone singing his praises pre-draft and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we look back next year and he's seen as a wasted second round rookie pick. I find it interesting that people seem to assume that he's some awesome receiving WR and he has the edge over Hyde immediately due to that skill - from there (given the narrative) it's easy to assume he's in line to overtake Hyde. But from what I've seen and read, it seems like he isn't really all that great in that area either.
It is important to remember that Shannahan lobbied hard for Williams in the draft and has a vested interest in his success.  

 
It is important to remember that Shannahan lobbied hard for Williams in the draft and has a vested interest in his success.
That's true - I guess for me that's all there is to it. The hype doesn't seem to be driven by any kind of analysis of what type of RB he is, whether he's actually good or not. Now, the counter to that is that what you've pointed out is really all that matters and that may be right. It'll be an interesting one to watch in preseason. The hype train will get abandoned pretty quickly if he does nothing in preseason.

 
Love it

I don't always agree with your takes trip but I like hearing your opinions.  Get @Ilov80s in here.  He will defend hyde

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Williams may be a bit bullish but for a late flyer why not? He may not earn the job outright but shanny used 2 rbs effectively last year, and Hyde has a hard time staying healthy. 

 
Not a bad list. I feel as it gets closer for draft time for most, Martavis Bryant will keep trending up draft boards.

 
I just got Williams at 15.02 (56th RB off the board) in an MFL10, he's basically free in some leagues.

 
With big money online leagues kicking off, there isn't nearly enough chat about players representing value on this board (nobody cares about your hometown dynasty league and the inherent homerism within the player threads)

Time to get the party started...standard scoring.

1.  Spencer's Ware/Kareem Hunt - so you are saying I can nearly lock up the potent KC running game with a couple of Middle to late middle rounders...yes please!  

CBS Avg Ranking -RB #30, RB #32

ESPN Avg Ranking - RB #18, RB #45

Is the KC running game potent? KC RBs were 24th in fantasy scoring last year. On average, Ware is a 4th round pick and Hunt is an 8th rounder. I will pass. Ware was one of my main targets last year but that was as a 10th+ rounder. Ware struggled over the second half of last season and KC is a team that is very likely to take a couple steps back in 2017. 

2.  Joe Williams - my personal opinion is that at a minimum williams will be seeing 100+ carries, with an opportunity to overtake Hyde by the second half of the season.  With skeletor Jr at the helm and and an extremely low ADP, he'll be on most of my squads....here's to hoping he has a quiet preseason.   Shhhhh...

CBS Avg Ranking - #45

ESPN Avg Ranking - Not in the top 66 RBs!!

You have an interesting list because it involves some dilemmas for me. Before the draft, I really liked Joe Williams and felt like I was one of the few supporters of his. When Shanahan fought for him, I felt smart. Hyde has never been a guy I have paid attention to and I had written him off for fantasy. Now, I find myself completely reconsidering this stance. Shanahan had positive comments about Hyde (said system doesn't matter, a good back will succeed in any system and that Hyde hasn't fully been unlocked yet). Also, somehow I was totally oblivious to how good Hyde was last year. Hyde had 4.6 ypc and in standard he was the 12th RB in PPG. I know he has an injury history, but he only missed 3 games last year (less than I thought). I remember everyone thought Coleman was going to unseat Freeman because he was "their guy" but we saw how that played out. Obviously TC and preseason will be telling, but as of right now, I see Hyde as a player I am supporting in the late 3rd or early 4th. 

3.  Phillip Rivers - #7 in points per start last year (4 pt TDs) and yet he is going substantially lower.  Not a sexy pick, but he's still in his prime and his weapons have improved.  Value city fellas. 

CBS Avg Ranking - QB #13

ESPN Avg Ranking - QB #14

Love the talent around him, but hate the early season schedule. LAC have the hardest QB schedule for the first 5 weeks in the NFL. I know SoS isn't always easy to predict, but in a world where there are 18 draftable QB1s and QBs can be streamed, I can't justify Rivers with that schedule. 

4.  Martavis Bryant - was downright explosive in 2015.  That upside is too much to pass up at his current price tag.  Reward easily worth the risk.

CBS Avg Ranking - WR #26

ESPN Avg Ranking - WR #34

Yes all day to Martavis. 

5.  Cameron Meredith - Finished #10 in points per start not to mention finishing the season with 5 straight solid performances.  Who else are the Bears going to throw the ball to, Kevin White?

CBS Avg Ranking - WR #38

ESPN Avg Ranking - WR #46

Agree completely. If Wheaton couldn't make it work with the Steelers, I find it hard to believe he will do anything with the Bears. I don't think everyone fully realizes how bad Kevin White is because he keeps getting hurt so that is all anyone remembers. Kevin White's 5.2 yards per target was 105th in the NFL.  Kendall Wright could be sneaky though. 

Honorable Mentions:

Carson Palmer  He has a top 5 early season schedule and is a late QB I would be willing to draft- especially if John Brown looks healthy in camp/preseason. 

Quincy Enunwa  Could be a target monster on a team that will likely see lots of garbage time, very good value. 

Doug Martin  In the 6th-7th round, I like the upside here. Martin is the definition of boom/bust but at this price, I can take the plunge especially when guys like West and Quiz are available so late to cover the  3 game suspension. 

Samaje Perine Agree, I have been very vocal in saying Kelley is probably worst RB prospect to ever actually start ever for a team, no way he holds off Perine. 

Kenneth Dixon Suspended and then joins a backfield where he likely won't be the GL back or the primary pass catcher. No thanks. 

You're up coach Otis :coffee:
I always enjoy your write-ups and lists. Good stuff.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Might be the homer in me, but I could see Josh Doctson providing some late round value. The Skins will likely continue to throw the ball this season and all the targets they lost with Jackson and Garcon have to go somewhere. If Docston is healthy, he could put up WR3 type numbers this year.

 
1. I agree with Ilov80s about KC - it's nice you can lock up a backfield cheaply, but remind me again why I want to lock up the KC backfield??

2. You got the wrong J Williams. I like Jamaal better. The offense is a million times better and Hyde is much more established/proven than Ty.

3. I agree with Rivers. His OL is improved and his weapons are healthy (remember, even Benjamin was hurt last year). Could be a big year for him, especially if Gordon gets hurt yet again.

4. I know Bryant is super popular here, but Ben is getting old and fragile and it's not like he's ever approached 40 TDs. So yeah, Bryant as upside over his ADP but it's not big enough for him to be a top value play, IMO.

5. I feel like Meredith could be decent or he could be a jag, but he won't be a breakout guy. This is based on some expert comments, not my own eyeball test. I disagree with Ilove80s about trying to analyze White based on his first four games in the NFL. First of all, that's a laughably small sample size. Second, it was his first four games! Third, he only played 2 games with each QB in that 4 game sample. So to me I'd much rather have the unknown with the upside over Meredith here unless all my other WRs are boom/bust. White has been developing rapport with Glennon, so I think he's the easy choice here.

Honorable Mentions:

Carson Palmer - yep. Palmer and Arians are just such a perfect fit - just need healthy WRs.

Quincy Enunwa - eh, I'll just avoid this dumpster fire. Enunwa in particular is just a big slot guy. I will probably have zero Jets, although Powell might catch a lot of garbage time dump offs...

Doug Martin - yep, I don't see why a 2015-esque pace isn't possible when he returns. Very little talent behind him.

Samaje Perine - yep, will be limited by the presence of Chris Thompson, but should get plenty of early down work.

Kenneth Dixon - yep, unlike Ilove80s, I think Dixon has the potential to be BOTH the goal line back and pass catcher. I'm not saying he's going to get 90% of the RB snaps, but West and Woodhead don't scare me.

 
5. I feel like Meredith could be decent or he could be a jag, but he won't be a breakout guy. This is based on some expert comments, not my own eyeball test. I disagree with Ilove80s about trying to analyze White based on his first four games in the NFL. First of all, that's a laughably small sample size. Second, it was his first four games! Third, he only played 2 games with each QB in that 4 game sample. So to me I'd much rather have the unknown with the upside over Meredith here unless all my other WRs are boom/bust. White has been developing rapport with Glennon, so I think he's the easy choice here.
Good post and  you are right about Kevin White's sample size. That is partially my bias from the fact that I have always thought he was a super overrated player and a terrible draft pick.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
3.  Phillip Rivers - #7 in points per start last year (4 pt TDs) and yet he is going substantially lower.  Not a sexy pick, but he's still in his prime and his weapons have improved.  Value city fellas. 

CBS Avg Ranking - QB #13

ESPN Avg Ranking - QB #14

Love the talent around him, but hate the early season schedule. LAC have the hardest QB schedule for the first 5 weeks in the NFL. I know SoS isn't always easy to predict, but in a world where there are 18 draftable QB1s and QBs can be streamed, I can't justify Rivers with that schedule. 

...

Carson Palmer  He has a top 5 early season schedule and is a late QB I would be willing to draft- especially if John Brown looks healthy in camp/preseason. 
So what you're saying is a Rivers/Palmer pairing would be great.

Seriously, I think you are off on Rivers here. I agree with @TripItUp. Using one of my fairly typical scoring leagues:

  • 2013: Rivers was QB6 in ppg
  • 2014: Rivers was QB4 in ppg through week 8; injuries (most notably Mathews and Woodhead, plus had to play 5 centers) and resulting terrible OL play derailed the offense
  • 2015: Rivers was QB4 in ppg through week 8; injuries (Allen, other WRs, OL) and resulting terrible OL play derailed the offense
  • 2016: Rivers was down all season due to injuries (lost WR3 Stevie and RB2 (the logical backup to Woodhead's role) in preseason and WR1 Allen and RB1b Woodhead within the first 2 games) and terrible OL play... he still finished as QB16 in ppg, less than 0.2 ppg below #13/14, which is his ADP
I realize results are results. But I think people who don't follow the Chargers don't realize what an abnormally high level of key injuries have occurred within the Chargers' offense in three consecutive seasons. OL has been a big part of that, and it is upgraded, with 3 starters gone. Woodhead and Stevie were a big part of that, and they are gone. Allen has been a big part of that and arguably remains a question mark, hence the addition of Mike Williams.

The improved OL could also be a huge deal for Rivers:

  • This article shows the PFF OL ratings for the past 8 seasons for 16 QBs, including Rivers. Unsurprisingly, Rivers' OL has been the worst of the 16 QBs profiled, and it really isn't close. The thing to note is that there have been 3 seasons when his OL graded out higher than #26: 2009 (#21), 2010 (#15), and 2013 (#18). He was top 9 in ppg and top 7 in total points in each of those seasons. And now he arguably has a stronger set of targets than in any of those seasons.
  • This PFF article addresses how much pressure Rivers has been under and how that has affected his performance. The author uses this information as justification for ranking Rivers as his #8 fantasy QB and notes the value he represents given his #14 ADP.
 
2. You got the wrong J Williams. I like Jamaal better. The offense is a million times better and Hyde is much more established/proven than Ty.

5. I feel like Meredith could be decent or he could be a jag, but he won't be a breakout guy. This is based on some expert comments, not my own eyeball test. I disagree with Ilove80s about trying to analyze White based on his first four games in the NFL. First of all, that's a laughably small sample size. Second, it was his first four games! Third, he only played 2

Quincy Enunwa - eh, I'll just avoid this dumpster fire. Enunwa in particular is just a big slot guy. I will probably have zero Jets, although Powell might catch a lot of garbage time dump offs...
Enunwa, Meredith and Williams are so cheap in most drafts that when compared to other players going around them they are automatic picks for me.  Would love to hear others going at their respective ADPs that you are selecting ahead of them.

 
Enunwa, Meredith and Williams are so cheap in most drafts that when compared to other players going around them they are automatic picks for me.  Would love to hear others going at their respective ADPs that you are selecting ahead of them.
No problem, let me think a bit...

I think Joe and Jamaal Williams are going at similar places. As a player, Jamaal > Joe. As a situation, Jamaal > Joe. But yeah, at that range for RBs you're pretty much picking handcuffs. I am just not excited about SF this year, so I'd probably rather grab Jamaal or wait a few rounds and take another J Williams (Jonathan) and hope to plug him in during a McCoy injury break or maybe give Booker a second chance in case CJA misses time (not yet buying into the JC comeback). 

As for Enunwa, Marvin Jones is going right about that same time and I think Marvin >>> Enunwa. If I was making my own value list, Marvin would be at or near the top of the list.

Meredith is actually going before both of them. Players I like much more than Meredith and Enunwa in that rage: Decker, Maclin, John Brown, Corey Coleman, Tyrell, Marvin. Kevin White is going a few rounds later and has that lower floor/higher ceiling combo that I seek out from late round (or cheap in auction) picks. The way I do my auctions, I don't have any absolute scrubs at the end of my bench, so a guy like Kevin White would likely be my "bubble" type player, so I'd rather he be a high upside/low floor guy so I either keep him around and start him or I drop him. I don't need a Meredith type, putting up just enough numbers to not want to drop, but not good enough to start.

 
No problem, let me think a bit...

I think Joe and Jamaal Williams are going at similar places. As a player, Jamaal > Joe. As a situation, Jamaal > Joe. But yeah, at that range for RBs you're pretty much picking handcuffs. I am just not excited about SF this year, so I'd probably rather grab Jamaal or wait a few rounds and take another J Williams (Jonathan) and hope to plug him in during a McCoy injury break or maybe give Booker a second chance in case CJA misses time (not yet buying into the JC comeback). 

As for Enunwa, Marvin Jones is going right about that same time and I think Marvin >>> Enunwa. If I was making my own value list, Marvin would be at or near the top of the list.

Meredith is actually going before both of them. Players I like much more than Meredith and Enunwa in that rage: Decker, Maclin, John Brown, Corey Coleman, Tyrell, Marvin. Kevin White is going a few rounds later and has that lower floor/higher ceiling combo that I seek out from late round (or cheap in auction) picks. The way I do my auctions, I don't have any absolute scrubs at the end of my bench, so a guy like Kevin White would likely be my "bubble" type player, so I'd rather he be a high upside/low floor guy so I either keep him around and start him or I drop him. I don't need a Meredith type, putting up just enough numbers to not want to drop, but not good enough to start.
Fair enough, I think some of your ADPs are off but I appreciate the response. 

 
Keep up the HYPE on Williams, I'll use that to get the real value (Hyde) at a discount. I love the rest of the list BTW!. 

 
Fair enough, I think some of your ADPs are off but I appreciate the response. 
I was just looking at the FBG consensus ADP. Which ADP site do you prefer?

ETA: Doh! As soon as I posted, I remembered in your original post you listed CBS and ESPN (two sites I never visit). So yeah, we are looking at different ADPs. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I was just looking at the FBG consensus ADP. Which ADP site do you prefer?

ETA: Doh! As soon as I posted, I remembered in your original post you listed CBS and ESPN (two sites I never visit). So yeah, we are looking at different ADPs. 
I like FF calculator and a few others too, I'll post ADPs from the players you listed when I get a chance.

 
What is the difference between points per start and points per game?  Rivers was QB19 in PPG last year.  How does points per start bump him all the way up to QB7?

It seems like the answer is obvious but I don't see how removing games where players didn't actually start the game could create that large of a disparity.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Quoted that number straight from the appendix of FF Index
Is there a link?

My league is 25 yards per point, 4 point TDs, -2 INTs and he was QB19 in PPG and QB14 overall.  I have no idea where they're getting that number from.  Maybe his 26 turnovers are making that big of a difference and they're not using a scoring system that counts them?

 
Is there a link?

My league is 25 yards per point, 4 point TDs, -2 INTs and he was QB19 in PPG and QB14 overall.  I have no idea where they're getting that number from.  Maybe his 26 turnovers are making that big of a difference and they're not using a scoring system that counts them?
 No link, but ff index is reputable.  There is a link to another source quoting the same number earlier in this thread, post by Just Win Baby

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL said:
What is the difference between points per start and points per game?  Rivers was QB19 in PPG last year.  How does points per start bump him all the way up to QB7?

It seems like the answer is obvious but I don't see how removing games where players didn't actually start the game could create that large of a disparity.
And in this case, it is irrelevant. Rivers started every game last season, so there is no difference between pps and ppg.

FreeBaGeL said:
Is there a link?

My league is 25 yards per point, 4 point TDs, -2 INTs and he was QB19 in PPG and QB14 overall.  I have no idea where they're getting that number from.  Maybe his 26 turnovers are making that big of a difference and they're not using a scoring system that counts them?
In one of my leagues that does not penalize for turnovers, he was QB8 in ppg, so it sounds like it is a scoring system difference.

 
Ilov80s said:
@Just Win Baby I hear you, the other way to spin that is Rivers play falls off as the year goes on so even more reason to worry since his early schedule is rough
The last time the Chargers didn't have an abnormal number of key injuries on offense and also had decent OL play was 2013, when Rivers was QB6 in ppg. It is reasonable to expect better luck on injuries and better OL play in 2017. :shrug:  

That said, I understand why people who don't follow the Chargers closely are skeptical, and I also recognize I am a :homer:  . So I'm happy to agree to disagree about Rivers.

 
Here is my argument against Phillip Rivers. He has faded badly each of the last three years in the second half of the season. Here are his rankings in games 1-8 and 9-16 using FPC scoring:

2014 1-8 ranked 3rd, 9-16 ranked 19th

2015 1-8 ranked 2nd, 9-16 ranked 23rd

2016 1-8 ranked 10th, 9-16 ranked 17th

His schedule is tough in the first half of the year. He plays the Chiefs once. He has six games against them in the last three years. He has three games under 12 points and his other three were 18.1, 19.3, 18.6.  He plays the Broncos twice. His last four games against Denver have been 13.9, 17.4, 8.1, and 19.9. He plays the Giants, who according to 4for4, have the second lowest points allowed to QBs in the league. The schedule definitely eases up the second half of the year, but that is when Rivers has traditionally faded.

I just think that considering his tough sechedule in the first half of the season, and his second half fades, I think Rivers is a fade this season.

 
Here is my argument against Phillip Rivers. He has faded badly each of the last three years in the second half of the season. Here are his rankings in games 1-8 and 9-16 using FPC scoring:

2014 1-8 ranked 3rd, 9-16 ranked 19th

2015 1-8 ranked 2nd, 9-16 ranked 23rd

2016 1-8 ranked 10th, 9-16 ranked 17th

His schedule is tough in the first half of the year. He plays the Chiefs once. He has six games against them in the last three years. He has three games under 12 points and his other three were 18.1, 19.3, 18.6.  He plays the Broncos twice. His last four games against Denver have been 13.9, 17.4, 8.1, and 19.9. He plays the Giants, who according to 4for4, have the second lowest points allowed to QBs in the league. The schedule definitely eases up the second half of the year, but that is when Rivers has traditionally faded.

I just think that considering his tough sechedule in the first half of the season, and his second half fades, I think Rivers is a fade this season.
Plus you have to figure as the season goes on he is going to have to deal with a ton of injuries on the offense. His new shiny WR toy is already sidelined with what appears to be a serious injury. 

 
Hmmm. "The potent KC running game."

In terms of 0 ppr fantasy scoring, the Chiefs ranked 25th last year in total team RB fantasy points. They ranked 18th in 2015. Combining 2015 and 2016, they ranked 23rd. Over that two year stretch, they scored 544.6 fantasy points, which was closer to the last ranked team (JAX with 405.2 points) than the #1 team (ARI with 765.6). I am unsure if a Bottom 10 team in terms of RB scoring merits being called "potent." 

That was then and this is now, as the saying goes. Things could change for the better, at least theoretically. I can't say that I really paid much attention to the Chiefs off season moves, but did they do much to expect a change in their RB totals? I know they drafted Hunt, but anything else noteworthy? Put another way, are there reasons to expect more production from the RB spot that I might be missing?

 
Hmmm. "The potent KC running game."

In terms of 0 ppr fantasy scoring, the Chiefs ranked 25th last year in total team RB fantasy points. They ranked 18th in 2015. Combining 2015 and 2016, they ranked 23rd. Over that two year stretch, they scored 544.6 fantasy points, which was closer to the last ranked team (JAX with 405.2 points) than the #1 team (ARI with 765.6). I am unsure if a Bottom 10 team in terms of RB scoring merits being called "potent." 

That was then and this is now, as the saying goes. Things could change for the better, at least theoretically. I can't say that I really paid much attention to the Chiefs off season moves, but did they do much to expect a change in their RB totals? I know they drafted Hunt, but anything else noteworthy? Put another way, are there reasons to expect more production from the RB spot that I might be missing?
Should have said "potentially potent"

Reid's offenses have had several top 10 RBs over the years. 

 
Hmmm. "The potent KC running game."

In terms of 0 ppr fantasy scoring, the Chiefs ranked 25th last year in total team RB fantasy points. They ranked 18th in 2015. Combining 2015 and 2016, they ranked 23rd. Over that two year stretch, they scored 544.6 fantasy points, which was closer to the last ranked team (JAX with 405.2 points) than the #1 team (ARI with 765.6). I am unsure if a Bottom 10 team in terms of RB scoring merits being called "potent." 

That was then and this is now, as the saying goes. Things could change for the better, at least theoretically. I can't say that I really paid much attention to the Chiefs off season moves, but did they do much to expect a change in their RB totals? I know they drafted Hunt, but anything else noteworthy? Put another way, are there reasons to expect more production from the RB spot that I might be missing?
I could see teams daring Alex Smith to beat them. With Maclin gone now, Tyreek Hill is their main WR threat. Kelce will still be heavily involved, but I'm not sure that Hill is going to be a real life WR1 for the Chiefs. Which means teams will probably load up to stop Ware/Hunt. I just don't see either of them doing much. Ware tailed off as the season went on last year.

 
Should have said "potentially potent"

Reid's offenses have had several top 10 RBs over the years. 
Not to beat you up too much over this, as you have had some really great calls. Not sure buying into the Chiefs RB situation will be one of them. Yes, Reid has coached several guys that were Top 10 fantasy backs (Staley, Westbrook, McCoy, and Charles). Do you see anyone on the Chiefs roster of the talent level as those guys?

If you were going to buy in on someone that is getting under drafted in a great situation, I would have thought you would have picked someone like Gillislee. The Patriots let Blount walk in search of someone better. Then they went out and signed Burkhead. But then they liked Gillislee even more and signed him after they already had Burkhead. IMO (and in NE's opinion), Gillislee is a significant upgrade over Blount. And we saw how Blount did last year (finished as RB7). In expert leagues, Gillislee's ADP is RB32 and 76th overall. I'd much rather have him than either of the KC backs (and especially not burning two picks on KC backs . . . Ware currently going as RB19 / 49th overall and Hunt at RB43 / 118 overall). IMO, Gillislee outproduces any KC back and will come cheaper. (And Gillisee doesn't have to get as many carries or TD's as Blount did to still way outproduce his draft slot.)

 
Not to beat you up too much over this, as you have had some really great calls. Not sure buying into the Chiefs RB situation will be one of them. Yes, Reid has coached several guys that were Top 10 fantasy backs (Staley, Westbrook, McCoy, and Charles). Do you see anyone on the Chiefs roster of the talent level as those guys?

If you were going to buy in on someone that is getting under drafted in a great situation, I would have thought you would have picked someone like Gillislee. The Patriots let Blount walk in search of someone better. Then they went out and signed Burkhead. But then they liked Gillislee even more and signed him after they already had Burkhead. IMO (and in NE's opinion), Gillislee is a significant upgrade over Blount. And we saw how Blount did last year (finished as RB7). In expert leagues, Gillislee's ADP is RB32 and 76th overall. I'd much rather have him than either of the KC backs (and especially not burning two picks on KC backs . . . Ware currently going as RB19 / 49th overall and Hunt at RB43 / 118 overall). IMO, Gillislee outproduces any KC back and will come cheaper. (And Gillisee doesn't have to get as many carries or TD's as Blount did to still way outproduce his draft slot.)
I like Gillislee at his current ADP but his lack of a defined role gives me pause in terms of calling him out as a top  value.

 
I'm surprised Hunt and Joe Williams make this list but Jamaal Williams does not

Jamaal Williams is being drafted RB52 at Overall 153 in PPR

I don't know of many RBs you can get in round 12 that can turn out to be starting RBs at some point during the season.
IMO Ware and Hyde > Ty Montgomery, so the chances of Hunt and Joe Williams over taking those players is less than Jamaal Williams over taking Ty Montgomery. Not to mention, Ty's biggest asset is catching the ball as a receiver out of the backfied, not rushing the ball (only one regular season, 2 post season games of >10 carries). 

IMO Ty Montgomery falls out of favor and Jamaal Williams or Aaron Jones over take the backfield at some point during the season, possibly by the Bye Week (8). Jamaal Williams has the best chance of the 2 to be on the field early as his skill set is different than Ty's, whereas Jones and Ty share more characteristics. 

Talk about value plays... Round 12... Jamaal Williams

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm surprised Hunt and Joe Williams make this list but Jamaal Williams does not

Jamaal Williams is being drafted RB52 at Overall 153 in PPR

I don't know of many RBs you can get in round 12 that can turn out to be starting RBs at some point during the season.
IMO Ware and Hyde > Ty Montgomery, so the chances of Hunt and Joe Williams over taking those players is less than Jamaal Williams over taking Ty Montgomery. Not to mention, Ty's biggest asset is catching the ball as a receiver out of the backfied, not rushing the ball (only one regular season, 2 post season games of >10 carries). 

IMO Ty Montgomery falls out of favor and Jamaal Williams or Aaron Jones over take the backfield at some point during the season, possibly by the Bye Week (8). Jamaal Williams has the best chance of the 2 to be on the field early as his skill set is different than Ty's, whereas Jones and Ty share more characteristics. 

Talk about value plays... Round 12... Jamaal Williams
Montgomery is going so high that it's tough to lock up the backfield, but I here what you're saying.  

Everybody is going to be keeping a close eye on Williams and the GB backfield situation in the preseason but I agree that he is a strong value late in drafts at his current adp

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Montgomery is going so high that it's tough to lock up the backfield, but I here what you're saying.  

Everybody is going to be keeping a close eye on Williams and the GB backfield situation in the preseason but I agree that he is a strong value late in drafts at his current adp
Yeah I won't get into Ty being drafted where he is... that's crazy. I agree, when you look at someone like Ware being drafted pretty late and a good talent behind him, that is also a good value. It's my opinion that GB is perhaps the murkiest starting RB situation in the league. Granted, GB RBs don't have a long history of being fantasy relevant after Ahman Green and before Eddie Lacy, but it's something to keep an eye on for sure. 

 
Yeah I can get on board with most of these, with the exception of Joe Williams. He just feels like all narrative hype to me and not much else. Now, maybe that's enough and it gets him a foot in the door in terms of opportunity and he runs with it, but it's quite possible that he's just not very good and is simply a JAG who got some preseason/draft hype. It's not like he has crazy measurables or anything to back up the hype. I can't recall anyone singing his praises pre-draft and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we look back next year and he's seen as a wasted second round rookie pick. I find it interesting that people seem to assume that he's some awesome receiving WR and he has the edge over Hyde immediately due to that skill - from there (given the narrative) it's easy to assume he's in line to overtake Hyde. But from what I've seen and read, it seems like he isn't really all that great in that area either.
What about now?

:coffee:

 
What about now?

:coffee:
I don't believe that Hyde is getting outright cut based on a pre-training camp report, if that's what you're asking.

I have no doubt the 49ers staff isn't committed to Hyde - none of my post was really about Hyde (although I thin he is a good RB). I just want to see some evidence that Joe Williams is actually an above replacement level RB before crowning him the future of the position there. The draft narrative may be significant, but as far as I can tell it's the only thing that his hype is based on. Oh, and the 49ers might have made an ill-advised pick. That's possible too.

By all means take a flier - you might hit. That's fine.....he's just not someone I'm personally interested in investing in.

 
Tell that to the Melvin Gordon owners before wood head got hurt last year! Wood head ruined Gordon's value before he got hurt.  Lol 
That's because the SD coaches were giving Woodhead 2 snaps to 1 for Gordon. I don't anticipate that kind of split to go down in Baltimore. Especially since Woodhead has never been a good runner and now he's 32 coming off an ACL tear.

 
That's because the SD coaches were giving Woodhead 2 snaps to 1 for Gordon. I don't anticipate that kind of split to go down in Baltimore. Especially since Woodhead has never been a good runner and now he's 32 coming off an ACL tear.
Woodhead is going to be a beast for the first 4 weeks.  Woodhead >>>>>>> West and he is going to get a lot of touches during Dixon's suspension.  I think the coaches are going to work Dixon in slow again this year and he doesn't return value till late in the season if at all this year.  

My guess is those who draft Dixon will end up dropping him by week 8 and you can grab him late in the season if you are still a believer.

 
That's because the SD coaches were giving Woodhead 2 snaps to 1 for Gordon. I don't anticipate that kind of split to go down in Baltimore. Especially since Woodhead has never been a good runner and now he's 32 coming off an ACL tear.
But that's his point... Melvin Gordon is a top 5ish RB this year depending on whose rankings you're reading. Danny Woodhead was being given 2 snaps to Gordon's 1... for a reason possibly. His point was if he can beat out Melvin Gordon, West/Dixon should be a breeze. 

But I agree on the 32 and ACL part. I don't think Woodhead is going to be a bellcow and I don't think he was signed to be. 

Do you think Woodhead offers as good of value as he did in SD in terms of use in the passing game? 

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top