A-Rob & Ware (1 Viewer)

I am in a 12 team dynasty league with IDP.  We have balanced scoring so each position is similar as far as points scored for a similar tier of player.  Starting requirements are QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Super Flex/K/Punter/DL/DL/LB/LB/DB/DB/Defense Flex (16 starters total).  It is a salary cap league (with contracts & escalations based on performance).  $250 cap for keepers (no cap in season)

Scoring quirk:  RB's are eligible for a 4 pt bonus at either 50 yds rushing or 50 yds receiving (they can receive a double bonus if they go over 50 in each category).  Otherwise it's 1pt/15 yds.  WR's are 1 pt/12 yds with a 3 pt bonus at 100 yds receiving.

I have been offered the following:

Allen Robinson ($1/2017) - can escalate if finishing in top 15 of WR's (escalate to $50 if top 5 WR); scored 111 pts in 2016

Christine Michael ($5/2018) - he is a salary dump as he isn't worth keeping and will cost $10 to cut

Nick Fairley ($1/2017) - salary dump and will cost $1 to cut

for

Spencer Ware ($1/2018) - scored 158 pts in 2016; under contract through 2018 so he will stay at $1 no matter how he finishes in scoring in 2017.  He will not escalate.

In this league salary savings is very important because we have a restricted free agent (RFA) auction prior to the rookie draft and any left over salary you have available can be used to bid on RFA's. 

My WR's that I will keep without the trade are OBJ ($45), Snead($5), Parker($10).  The RB's I will keep without the trade are Henry ($10/2018), Perkins ($5), and Ware ($1)

If I make the trade I will replace Parker with Robinson and Ware with James White and will take a net salary loss of $4.  So I guess the part I am debating is the upgrade of Robinson over Parker worth the downgrade of Ware to James White? 

• I think White has the trust of Brady/Bellicheck and with the 4pt bonus at 50 yds receiving he may be a solid RB2 if he gets that every week while throwing in 5-7 TD's for the year. 
  
• Will Ware lose touches to Hunt to the point he isn't really much better than White
  
• Will Robinson bounce back?
  
• Will Parker take a big enough step forward that he and Robinson are basically the same?
  

You need to post your whole team (or at least offense) and what you are at for roster space and cap number. What do you have for draft picks?

Your net salary loss this year is not $4 it's $6 (AR and Ware wash, +5 for CM, +1 for Fairly) . And you have to take up two more roster spots. If you want to cut those guys is a net loss of $11. If AR does well, which you're hoping for then next year he is going to cost you even more but Ware will stay at $1. But you say that the cap is only for deciding keepers so the value of these dollars goes down. 

I don't understand why you are saying you're replacing Ware with White. It seems like Henry and Perkins will be your starters. Henry had similar stats as White last year and one would think he sees more work in year 2. Perkins has been said to be the starter in for the Giants. Ware put up significantly better numbers than any of those guys. I'm not as worried as others about Hunt but I don't think Ware is an top end fantasy talent either. Do you have a high enough pick to get one of the top 4 RBs in this years class? How hard is it to get an legitimate RB off the WW or in your veteran auction? The only reason not to make this trade is money and position scarcity at RB.

If you're anything other than an elite tier team in this league than I would take that deal.

Borden said:

You need to post your whole team (or at least offense) and what you are at for roster space and cap number. What do you have for draft picks?

Your net salary loss this year is not $4 it's $6 (AR and Ware wash, +5 for CM, +1 for Fairly) . And you have to take up two more roster spots. If you want to cut those guys is a net loss of $11. If AR does well, which you're hoping for then next year he is going to cost you even more but Ware will stay at $1. But you say that the cap is only for deciding keepers so the value of these dollars goes down. 

I don't understand why you are saying you're replacing Ware with White. It seems like Henry and Perkins will be your starters. Henry had similar stats as White last year and one would think he sees more work in year 2. Perkins has been said to be the starter in for the Giants. Ware put up significantly better numbers than any of those guys. I'm not as worried as others about Hunt but I don't think Ware is an top end fantasy talent either. Do you have a high enough pick to get one of the top 4 RBs in this years class? How hard is it to get an legitimate RB off the WW or in your veteran auction? The only reason not to make this trade is money and position scarcity at RB.

If you're anything other than an elite tier team in this league than I would take that deal.

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We keep 15 players year to year.  With no deal I keep Ware, Henry, Perkins at RB and let White go into the auction/draft.  I keep OBJ, Parker, and Snead at WR.  If I make the deal I keep Henry, Perkins, and White at RB (which is why I said I am replacing Ware with White - more RB depth than starter direct replacement) and OBJ, A-Rob, and Snead at WR and trade away Parker (no room to keep 4 WR's - unless I only kept 2 RB's and 4 WR's). I am keeping 1 QB, 1 TE, 3 DL, 3 LB, & 1 DB (Landon Collins)

In general RB's are not critical based on our scoring and if you are strong enough elsewhere (my IDP is my strength as I am usually top 1 or 2 in total IDP points).  Because of this  I usually string together my starting RB's by targeting 2nd & 3rd tier guys that have good shots at getting 50yds for the bonus. I have won two out of the last three years and finished tied for first in the other year (lost tie breaker - we don't do playoffs).  All positions are set up so that similar tiers across positions score similar so you can build in multiple ways.  I know it's strange to not need a top tier RB to be competitive but it's not critical in this league.  Making this deal will push me to go after RB improvements in the auction (there will be veteran RB's available) but I don't need to get a top 10 guy.  I just need a guy that will average either 50 yds rushing or receiving each week.  If I can get that out each RB each week I will be fine. 

The net salary loss is calculated by cutting Michael ($10 cap hit), Fairley ($1 cap hit), keeping A-Rob ($1) and White ($3) for a total of $15 while not making the trade would see me keeping Ware ($1) and Parker ($10) for a total of $11.  So $15 - $11 is a net increase of $4.  Not a huge deal as I am looking to go into our RFA auction with about $75 to spend. 

All that to say is my dilemma is whether the upgrade of A-Rob from Parker is greater than the downgrade of Ware to White.    

I'd say to take the deal then.

Borden said:

I'd say to take the deal then.

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Hopefully my rambling didn't clutter things up too much for you.  The salary cap/freeze structure is difficult to explain in writing. 

My big hold up on the deal is knowing which A-Rob is the true A-Rob (he was so inconsistent last year) and whether Ware's diminished output as the year went on was really injury related or did management see something and that's why they went with trading up for Hunt. 

Gally said:

Hopefully my rambling didn't clutter things up too much for you.  The salary cap/freeze structure is difficult to explain in writing. 

My big hold up on the deal is knowing which A-Rob is the true A-Rob (he was so inconsistent last year) and whether Ware's diminished output as the year went on was really injury related or did management see something and that's why they went with trading up for Hunt. 

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The info/rambling was all good. 

I don't know how contract renewal works for you but if I were to gamble on one or the other for dynasty, I'd take the 24 year old WR that has at shown top 10 upside. Especially over a 26 year old RB that has a possible injury concern and will be sharing the work. To try and break it down the situations more than that just results in too many question marks, IMO. Especially when you consider that AR might have a completely different (and hard to imagine worse) situation next year if he goes into free agency.

Robinson still averaged 12.5 points per game in "normal" PPR vs 13.9 for Ware. That's comparing Ware's best season vs Robinsons worst. Ware also didn't break a 50 yard run or catch last year. Even if last years numbers are how both careers play out, 4 more seasons for Ware will put him at 30 and likely the end of his career and Robinson only 28. So doing the math (16 games x 1.4 points x 4 seasons) would be a total of 89.6 points advantage for Ware over 4 seasons. That's under half a season for Robinson to make up those points. Obviously, it's not that straightforward as far as your FF team goes but it does show that even in basically the worst case scenario of accepting the trade, you aren't going to be completely derailing your team. 

You also said that you feel you can find startable RBs. If so, why not take a swing for the fences with Robinson? 

why do you have to take the two players just to cut them?

jwsbowler said:

why do you have to take the two players just to cut them?

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Because the other owner wants to dump salary.  If I don't take them then he would have to eat the salary to cut them.  It is part of why he is willing to part with arob for ware

Borden said:

The info/rambling was all good. 

I don't know how contract renewal works for you but if I were to gamble on one or the other for dynasty, I'd take the 24 year old WR that has at shown top 10 upside. Especially over a 26 year old RB that has a possible injury concern and will be sharing the work. To try and break it down the situations more than that just results in too many question marks, IMO. Especially when you consider that AR might have a completely different (and hard to imagine worse) situation next year if he goes into free agency.

Robinson still averaged 12.5 points per game in "normal" PPR vs 13.9 for Ware. That's comparing Ware's best season vs Robinsons worst. Ware also didn't break a 50 yard run or catch last year. Even if last years numbers are how both careers play out, 4 more seasons for Ware will put him at 30 and likely the end of his career and Robinson only 28. So doing the math (16 games x 1.4 points x 4 seasons) would be a total of 89.6 points advantage for Ware over 4 seasons. That's under half a season for Robinson to make up those points. Obviously, it's not that straightforward as far as your FF team goes but it does show that even in basically the worst case scenario of accepting the trade, you aren't going to be completely derailing your team. 

You also said that you feel you can find startable RBs. If so, why not take a swing for the fences with Robinson? 

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I agree but wanted to put it out there to see if I am missing something.  Just a last minute sanity check

I understand the cap consequences, but man that feels like the other owner is just giving Robinson away. Wouldn't be surprised one bit if Robinson jumped right back to the land of WR1s.

Gally said:

Because the other owner wants to dump salary.  If I don't take them then he would have to eat the salary to cut them.  It is part of why he is willing to part with arob for ware

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okay... one last thing, why not just keep Robinson and not White?  and Christine is a $10 cut, with a salary of $5?

jwsbowler said:

okay... one last thing, why not just keep Robinson and not White?  and Christine is a $10 cut, with a salary of $5?

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Christine Michael is a $10 cap hit because he has two years left at $5 per year.  I will keep Robinson and White if the trade goes through.  Although it's not a PPR league or big play league.   I get a 4 pt bonus if a RB gets 50 total yds rushing or 50 total yds receiving.  It doesn't have to be a 50 yd play and it doesn't have to be a TD.  

Gally said:

Christine Michael is a $10 cap hit because he has two years left at $5 per year.  I will keep Robinson and White if the trade goes through.  Although it's not a PPR league or big play league.   I get a 4 pt bonus if a RB gets 50 total yds rushing or 50 total yds receiving.  It doesn't have to be a 50 yd play and it doesn't have to be a TD.  

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Thanks Gally... now that makes sense.  Trying to get a handle around this.  I can see why White over Parker with the cap savings.  The escalation on Robinson, IMO, could get him into the top 15, but I don't see him getting into the top 5 (even though 2015 was dang close depending on the overall scoring).  I would do the deal.  I think Hunt cuts into Ware's touches.  

jwsbowler said:

Thanks Gally... now that makes sense.  Trying to get a handle around this.  I can see why White over Parker with the cap savings.  The escalation on Robinson, IMO, could get him into the top 15, but I don't see him getting into the top 5 (even though 2015 was dang close depending on the overall scoring).  I would do the deal.  I think Hunt cuts into Ware's touches.  

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I understand your confusion.  Our cap system, salary structure, and escalations are complicated and very hard to describe in writing.  I ended up doing the deal but a couple other pieces were added.  It ended up being the following:

I gave up:

• Fletcher Cox ($15 not under contract) - I wasn't going to keep him since I have Danielle Hunter ($3), JPP ($3), and Brandon Graham ($3) already under contract and locked in through 2018
  
• Spencer Ware ($1/2018)
  
• 2017 Pick 20.09
  

I received:

• Christine Michael ($10 cap hit)
  
• Nick Fairley ($1 cap hit)
  
• Allen Robinson ($1 not under contract)
  
• 2017 Pick 6.07
  

Now I am going to look to move Devante Parker ($10) for a draft pick.  My only other thought is keeping Parker and trading away Willie Snead ($5/2017).  The salary hit won't hurt me as I would still have $68 (out of $250) available for the RFA auction but I think Snead may have a higher floor and not sure his ceiling would be too much lower than Parker.  This would be for my WR3 since I have OBJ and Robinson for WR1/2. 

travdogg said:

I understand the cap consequences, but man that feels like the other owner is just giving Robinson away. Wouldn't be surprised one bit if Robinson jumped right back to the land of WR1s.

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That is what I am hoping for. 

Gally said:

I understand your confusion.  Our cap system, salary structure, and escalations are complicated and very hard to describe in writing.  I ended up doing the deal but a couple other pieces were added.  It ended up being the following:

I gave up:

• Fletcher Cox ($15 not under contract) - I wasn't going to keep him since I have Danielle Hunter ($3), JPP ($3), and Brandon Graham ($3) already under contract and locked in through 2018
  
• Spencer Ware ($1/2018)
  
• 2017 Pick 20.09
  

I received:

• Christine Michael ($10 cap hit)
  
• Nick Fairley ($1 cap hit)
  
• Allen Robinson ($1 not under contract)
  
• 2017 Pick 6.07
  

Now I am going to look to move Devante Parker ($10) for a draft pick.  My only other thought is keeping Parker and trading away Willie Snead ($5/2017).  The salary hit won't hurt me as I would still have $68 (out of $250) available for the RFA auction but I think Snead may have a higher floor and not sure his ceiling would be too much lower than Parker.  This would be for my WR3 since I have OBJ and Robinson for WR1/2. 

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Unless you think the $5 will be really important, I'd really prefer Parker over Snead. Feel like his ceiling is a ton higher, especially since Parker has more QB stability, as Brees is in year to year mode. I agree Snead has a higher floor this year, but unless you can add someone in the auction that is better than either of them, i'd lean toward Parker.

travdogg said:

Unless you think the $5 will be really important, I'd really prefer Parker over Snead. Feel like his ceiling is a ton higher, especially since Parker has more QB stability, as Brees is in year to year mode. I agree Snead has a higher floor this year, but unless you can add someone in the auction that is better than either of them, i'd lean toward Parker.

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It would actually be a $10 difference since Snead is under contract if I don't keep him I have to take the cap hit.

I may shop both and trade whoever nets the best return.