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2017 Anarchy League 3 - The Thunderdome Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Wait . . . the draft has started? How come no one notified me? A head's up would have been nice.
ZWK
Footballguy
Each pick was intentional. It wasn't a plan going into the draft, but in the 4th round it's hard to pass on a guy who had 166 points just from receptions last year.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
ZWK
Footballguy
Yeah, that counted against the Rudolph pick (and, to a lesser extent, the Ertz pick). But the gap between Rudolph and the next guy on my board (Newton or Crabtree) was big enough so that I figured I ought to take the points now, even if it might mean missing out on some good TE value later in the draft. It's not much different from locking down 2 QBs early (which 2 teams have already done, limiting their ability to catch falling value later on).
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Quite honestly locking up your flex with a top TE in this format is a pretty viable strategy instead of your flex being a last round RB/WR flyer. Even low end TE's will outscore many of the late RB's and Wr's. You have to have some pretty mad skills and hit on a couple solid RB3-4s and WR 4-5's.
In Anarchy 2 I debated going this route and snagging Bennett instead of Hill and then hoping to get another of Eifert/Walker etc....taking a huge hit at other positions but getting huge points (if healthy) while also depleting the TE pool for others....
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Now this strategy right here I will never understand, what with very possible top-5 names at QB falling into the 4th and 5th rounds of these drafts this year.
Of course @Genester beat me (and lapped the rest of the field) in A6 last year by going QB-QB to start so it's probably me who's slow on the uptake.
5Rings
Lurker
Wasn't thrilled to have two QBs by round 5, but a) the champs the last few seasons have all had big QB play, and picked them early, b) at the time, I thought QB was the best value, and c) I really don't want to have the Jets or Browns QB again this year
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Check again...Last I looked, you two had the longest wait times to draft. Just sayin'.
• 3 of 5 picks made instantly by Pre-Draft list
• 1 of 5 picks made less than 8 minutes later
• Only time I haven't insta-picked was when it my turn Saturday night and I was at the bar (like all you Homos should have been) and my pick was made immediately the next morning.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
avg draft times are not a good thing with the clock off....some guys are going OTC and burning clock time when it would normally be off (12am-8am est)...that time is getting factored in and it really shouldnt be...
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[icon]
Insoxicated
I'll be at the bar again tonight for USMNT vs Jamaica in Gold Cup Finals.
I'm entering pre-draft for my first pick in case the 15 picks magically happen in the next 9 hours... but won't be pre-drafting for both slots because I'm not getting stuck with TWO kickers at the turn here.
IF my turn comes back up tonight, I'll make my second turn when I'm back from the bar around 11:30ish CT.... which will be good for you guys as I'll be properly lit from either celebrating or drowning my sorrows (pending match result), and may just take a second Kicker anyway.
I'm entering pre-draft for my first pick in case the 15 picks magically happen in the next 9 hours... but won't be pre-drafting for both slots because I'm not getting stuck with TWO kickers at the turn here.
IF my turn comes back up tonight, I'll make my second turn when I'm back from the bar around 11:30ish CT.... which will be good for you guys as I'll be properly lit from either celebrating or drowning my sorrows (pending match result), and may just take a second Kicker anyway.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Take a note that I'm going on the clock overnight and making the puck in the morning. I'm not chewing up 12 hours during prime drafting hoursLast I looked, you two had the longest wait times to draft. Just sayin'.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Went on the clock at 1am Sat morning, picked at 10amTake a note that I'm going on the clock overnight and making the puck in the morning. I'm not chewing up 12 hours during prime drafting hoursLast I looked, you two had the longest wait times to draft. Just sayin'.
Went on the clock at 8:41 pm and picked at 8:50 pm. Back on the clock at 10:12 pm and was likely in bed so I picked at 6:51 am.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have never seen a bunch of grown men discuss, debate, and bicker over anything as inane as this non-stop review of draft pick speeds and wait times. #Draft speed envy.
It's like you guys are discussing flat wear, china, or floral patterns on someone's wedding gift registry. Is this really what these leagues have become? Maybe Joe will create a coupon forum for you guys. I've got a 50 cents off a 96 ounce Tide coupon. Anyone want to trade?
It's like you guys are discussing flat wear, china, or floral patterns on someone's wedding gift registry. Is this really what these leagues have become? Maybe Joe will create a coupon forum for you guys. I've got a 50 cents off a 96 ounce Tide coupon. Anyone want to trade?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
[icon]
Insoxicated
Good call.
Anarchy has inspired me. I'm going to begin taking 24hours per pick after this round
Thx GB!
Very interesting concept. Don't like as still think might be left with scrapes at QB.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
just got done running the historical numbers breaking down avg draft time with success (where you finish) in the Anarchy leagues....initially I also factored in time spent posting complaints about avg draft time as a variable....as well as the stress of adulting which includes but is not limited to going to the bar to watch soccer and minor home repair/remodel.....giving each of those time frames ranging anywhere from 45 seconds (complaint about avg draft time post), to 3.5 hours (soccer at bar) to 2.75 months (minor home remodel).....
what I found was the findings indicate that the variables have very little to do with ultimate success or failure in the Anarchy leagues....surprisingly however.... there IS a direct correlation between avg draft time and Anarchy success....turns out....the faster you pick....the more overall success you have in the Anarchy's ......kinda crazy I know, but the numbers don't lie...
what I found was the findings indicate that the variables have very little to do with ultimate success or failure in the Anarchy leagues....surprisingly however.... there IS a direct correlation between avg draft time and Anarchy success....turns out....the faster you pick....the more overall success you have in the Anarchy's ......kinda crazy I know, but the numbers don't lie...
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[icon]
Insoxicated
[icon]
Insoxicated
I had a buddy inside IBM's DeepQA Division go ahead and feed our results into Watson and run probability analysis of victory with 10MM simulations of the balance of the draft and playing out the season.
Current odds of winning league:
[icon] 11.1%
BassNBrew 9.2%
Fiddles 9.1%
Sinrman 7.8%
Hell Toupee 7.8%
Blinky The Three Eyed Fish 7.7%
5rings 6.7%
ryheaps 6.5%
Firstseason1988 6.2%
Maggot Brain 5.9%
Crippler 5.2%
jhexel 4.9%
Cockroach 4.0%
Yellow Snow 4.2%
Dreamers 2.9 %
ZWK 0.8%
Current odds of winning league:
[icon] 11.1%
BassNBrew 9.2%
Fiddles 9.1%
Sinrman 7.8%
Hell Toupee 7.8%
Blinky The Three Eyed Fish 7.7%
5rings 6.7%
ryheaps 6.5%
Firstseason1988 6.2%
Maggot Brain 5.9%
Crippler 5.2%
jhexel 4.9%
Cockroach 4.0%
Yellow Snow 4.2%
Dreamers 2.9 %
ZWK 0.8%
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Last year SF QB netted me 321 in round 17 (league one), Seattle in round one was worth 366 pts. Carolina QB in Cam's rookie year was Mr. Irrelevant and finished in the top 3 scorer's. I like scraps with meat left.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agree and disagree. All teams will need their Top 3 picks to perform as expected or they will be behind the 8 ball. I don't have a problem taking a sure thing QB early. The issue I have is people taking not sure things early with only limited chance of that QB going nuts.
To BNB's point, you can get some really good buys late shopping in the QB bargain bin. A pick on a late round QB will almost assuredly score more than the picked over scraps left at position players. But if your hold your nose pick at QB performs as such, you could be 300 points behind in QB scoring pretty easily. SFO worked out. How did the Rams QB's do?
To BNB's point, you can get some really good buys late shopping in the QB bargain bin. A pick on a late round QB will almost assuredly score more than the picked over scraps left at position players. But if your hold your nose pick at QB performs as such, you could be 300 points behind in QB scoring pretty easily. SFO worked out. How did the Rams QB's do?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
In 2015 I didn't take my QBs early - they were the 8th and 25th QBs off the board.5Rings said:Wasn't thrilled to have two QBs by round 5, but a) the champs the last few seasons have all had big QB play, and picked them early, b) at the time, I thought QB was the best value, and c) I really don't want to have the Jets or Browns QB again this year
I have some disagreements with Watson - looks like it's underrating jhexel.[icon] said:
Once our league's draft is over, do you want to have a metadraft where we each pick 8 of the teams, and whoever picks the league winner wins our metaleague?
Or maybe we could pick from the teams across all the Anarchy leagues.
[icon]
Insoxicated
I mean.. if you guys are just going to let me HAVE another QB1, I guess I'll take him at this stage in the game. Really had my eye on someone else but Dalton just fell too far.
I'm higher than most on Fiedorowicz, as there is a trend of Mobile rookie QB's who favor their TE's (Newton>Olsen/Shockey / Mariota > Walker / Winston > ASJ / Griffin III > 3 TE Comittee). I think he's got a steady floor or 50/500 with a nice upside of TE1 numbers and a possible 65-70 reception season.
I'm higher than most on Fiedorowicz, as there is a trend of Mobile rookie QB's who favor their TE's (Newton>Olsen/Shockey / Mariota > Walker / Winston > ASJ / Griffin III > 3 TE Comittee). I think he's got a steady floor or 50/500 with a nice upside of TE1 numbers and a possible 65-70 reception season.
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WTF are you talking about?!?! I could not autopick the 1.1 and I auto picked 2.16 and 3.1. Yeah it took me almost 5 hrs after it took forever for the 4.16 and 5.1 to actually get back to me. I have a freakin job so deal with it. This last time I picked as soon as I woke up after you picked late at night. Find something better to complain about.@ryheaps has been a speed bump both times his turn came up...
Dude. Quit being terrible at this and predraft or at least halfway pay attention to the league. TIA.
[icon]
Insoxicated
ZWK
Footballguy
Looking things over just past the halfway point:
Taking 3 TEs early hasn't come back to haunt me (at least not yet). There haven't been any great TE values that I missed out on by already having my TE slots full.
My QB slots are now also full. I didn't see much need to take one early, but I wanted to avoid getting stuck with some of the shaky options at the bottom of the draft, and I was able to pull that off by grabbing Taylor & Tannehill in rounds 8 & 9.
I usually like the RB value in the mid-rounds of Anarchy drafts, when I can get committee backs who aren't great options in standard leagues but should have decent years, and that has been true again this year with Ware, Ingram, and Forte. One more RB still to go.
I usually have more than 2 WRs at this point in the draft, but am not too worried about filling out my last 3 slots since I expect to have decent options available in the back half of the draft.
We're now getting into the part of the draft where PK & DST are worth considering. I think the first ones went off the board around the right time. Gostkowski leads the way among kickers in both his regular season projection and his expected playoff value, which makes him worth a 9th rounder in this format.
I'll post a more detailed draft summary at the end of the draft, when I don't have to worry as much about spoilers.
Taking 3 TEs early hasn't come back to haunt me (at least not yet). There haven't been any great TE values that I missed out on by already having my TE slots full.
My QB slots are now also full. I didn't see much need to take one early, but I wanted to avoid getting stuck with some of the shaky options at the bottom of the draft, and I was able to pull that off by grabbing Taylor & Tannehill in rounds 8 & 9.
I usually like the RB value in the mid-rounds of Anarchy drafts, when I can get committee backs who aren't great options in standard leagues but should have decent years, and that has been true again this year with Ware, Ingram, and Forte. One more RB still to go.
I usually have more than 2 WRs at this point in the draft, but am not too worried about filling out my last 3 slots since I expect to have decent options available in the back half of the draft.
We're now getting into the part of the draft where PK & DST are worth considering. I think the first ones went off the board around the right time. Gostkowski leads the way among kickers in both his regular season projection and his expected playoff value, which makes him worth a 9th rounder in this format.
I'll post a more detailed draft summary at the end of the draft, when I don't have to worry as much about spoilers.
ZWK
Footballguy
Previous years' writeups: 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 a & b, 2010.
My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment to compare positions, follow the numbers except for judgment calls when guys are close or there's breaking news, adjust position values slightly as the draft progresses.
1.12 WR AJ Green CIN
Was hoping for Gronk (who I see as the last tier 2 player in this format) or Kelce (who is the last of tier 3). I actually have Jordy & Olsen projected very slightly ahead of Green, but I'm worried about Jordy's risk of age-related decline and Olsen seems like he might make it back to me in the 2nd. Plus my gut check favors Green. Also considered: TE Greg Olsen, WR Jordy Nelson.
2.05 TE Greg Olsen CAR
And he did make it back. Olsen ranked 14th, 5th, and 8th in scoring among non-QBs over the past 3 seasons. Seems like a safe bet to stay near the top this year. Also considered: WR Michael Thomas.
3.12 TE Zach Ertz PHI
Seems like TEs are falling too far. Ertz ranked 18th and 27th in scoring among non-QBs over the past 2 seasons, so he seems like good value here as the 35th non-QB off the board. Eifert is tempting, but I'm worried about the injury risk plus increased competition for targets. Also considered: WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Tyler Eifert, TE Kyle Rudolph.
4.05 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN
Last year's #2 TE in this format. I wasn't planning to take my flex in round 4, and I am relatively down on Rudolph after his Pettigrewesque 2016 breakout (high volume, low efficiency on a weapon-starved offense). But once Jeffery was off the board the gap in value here was too big to pass up, even after downgrading Rudolph compared to how others are projecting him and downgrading all TEs to try to maintain roster flexibility. 2 PPR matters a lot, even if he's "just" a 70 reception guy. Also considered: QB Cam Newton, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Julian Edelman.
5.12 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI
The end of a tier, in my eyes (with just Sanders straggling not too far behind). Some chance of age-related decline at 34, or of Palmer's performance dropping off a cliff, but he was still going strong last year en route to 108/1028/6 (which matched Brandin Cooks's fantasy production) and even has some upside above that if Palmer bounces back closer to his 2015 form. Also considered: none.
6.05 RB Spencer Ware KC
With all the big scorers gone, the rest of the draft is more about filling all 18 slots with solid players who won't blow up in your face (though of course some upside is nice too). And that usually means starting to fill the RB slots with guys who are at least committee backs. Ware fits the bill, and still has a shot at being a workhorse - mid-round rookies usually don't just come in and take over. Also considered: RB Mark Ingram, QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Andy Dalton.
7.12 RB Mark Ingram NO
The Saints RB corps always scores a ton of fantasy points, divided among multiple players, thanks to a bunch of RB receptions and touchdowns. Ingram could lose carries to Peterson and targets to Kamara, but he has a pretty high floor as a versatile part of the committee and decent upside if Peterson or Kamara don't win larger workloads than Hightower or Cadet had. Also considered: QB Tyrod Taylor.
8.05 QB Bills BUF
Tyrod Taylor's running makes him a relatively safe bet to at least be a solid middle-of-the-pack QB, like he has been the past couple years, and he has some upside if Buffalo throws more. He was on my short list 2 rounds ago, so I'm glad to get him here. With some shaky quarterbacking situations in NY, CHI, LA, SF, CLE, and maybe HOU & DEN, it also seems like a bad season to wait on QB until the end of the draft. Also considered: RB Frank Gore.
9.12 QB Dolphins MIA
Got the guy I was hoping for. Ryan Tannehill is another solid middle-of-the-pack QB who successfully keeps the dregs off my roster. He feels like a safer bet to be non-terrible, compared to the other obvious QB options here (Bortles, Bradford & co., Alex Smith / Mahomes). And he has at least some upside in his 2nd year in Gase's system, with Parker showing signs of emerging as a star. Woodhead or Gostkowski would've been worth considering, but with them off the board this was an easy pick. (Update: this pick looks much worse with Tannehill's injury, and Bradford still available in round 12.) Also considered: none.
10.05 RB Matt Forte NYJ
Going into the back half of the draft, I need 3 more WRs and 2 each at RB, PK, and DST. There were similarly valued players available at each of those positions. I decided to break the near-tie by going with RB, since I usually have my 3rd RB by this point and I would like to get my RBs before the committee backs give way to dart throws. Forte seems pretty safely locked in to his committee role. Powell is likely to have the larger role, and the Jets are likely to be terrible, but that information is already baked into Forte's projection which has him at the top of my RB board. Also considered: WR Kenny Britt, DST New England Patriots, PK Matt Bryant.
11.12 DST Patriots NWE
Bradford, Bortles, and Alex Smith are the top 3 players on my draft board; I guess I should've waited on QB instead of taking Tannehill. Vinatieri and the Pats D were neck-and-neck for the lead among the positions where I still have space. I was going to break the tie in favor of the kicker since they run out, but Luck's injury shifted things the other way. The Patriots are consistently among the better fantasy defenses, and they are likely to get playoff points. I'll probably use 2 of my next 3 picks on kickers. Also considered: PK Adam Vinatieri.
12.05 PK Adam Vinatieri IND
The Luck injury is likely a minor issue, and was a tiebreaker rather than a dealbreaker with my last pick, so Vinatieri is the play here. I don't want a repeat of last year where kicker troubles cost me the league. Also considered: DST Kansas City Chiefs, DST Arizona Cardinals, RB Kareem Hunt, PK Cairo Santos.
13.12 PK Phil Dawson ARI
Solid team, secure job. I want to nail down the kicker spot with either this pick or the next one, since I'm at least a little worried about job security for every kicker left except for Dawson, Lambo, Hauschka, and Succop (and the least risky options among the rest are also on pretty terrible teams). And I see a wider gap between those 4 kickers than I do between the 4 WRs than I'm eyeing, so I'll go with the kicker here. Also considered: DST Chiefs, WR Ted Ginn, WR Marqise Lee, WR Kevin White, WR Tyler Lockett.
14.05 WR Tyler Lockett SEA
He'll roughly be worth this slot if he just repeats his 2015-16 production, and he has some upside as a 3rd year WR who has flashed talent and is competing for Seattle's #2 receiver spot. (Though also some downside risk from the leg injury.) Also considered: WR Marqise Lee, DST Chiefs.
15.12 WR Marqise Lee JAX
Glad to get 2 of the WRs that I passed on in round 13. Similar to Lockett, Lee may have overtaken Hurns as the Jaguars' #2 receiver and he should at least be regularly involved as their 3rd receiver. Relatively high floor with some upside. Also considered: none.
16.05 RB Shane Vereen NYG
Vereen's per-game production in New York has been similar to Sproles's in Philly. Vereen does have more injury risk, but I think people are discounting him too much based on last year's torn triceps. There is some uncertainty about Vereen's role, but less so than for most RBs in the last third of this draft, and that uncertainty includes some possibility of getting a larger role than expected. Went RB because options are a lot thinner there than at WR or DST. Also considered: DST Rams, WR Chris Conley.
17.12 DST Bills BUF
I strongly considered Mike Williams here, before deciding that I didn't want to take that gamble and that the much safer, lower-upside Terrance Williams belonged at the top of my WR board. But there will be 3 defenses going off the board before my next pick, compared with only 2 flex players, so I went defense here. The Bills have a strong line which should get its share of sacks, and a new coaching staff who could help them play better as a team. Also considered: WR Terrance Williams, WR Mike Williams, DST Colts.
18.05 WR Terrance Williams DAL
Williams has averaged 44/699/5 during his career (regular season only), with a low of 594 yards. Upside is very limited, but he seems like a safe bet to be in that range again (since Dallas hasn't added competition). Also considered: WR Mike Williams, WR J.J. Nelson.
Review: I like this team. Seems like a relatively safe, solid roster (though of course any roster can wind up getting ravaged by injuries, or suspensions, or vets hitting the wall, or depth chart shuffles). Pretty happy with the RB/WR contributors I was able to get late after focusing on QB, DST, and PK in the mid-rounds. This team is not dripping with upside, but for a lot of vets some decline was priced in so they can outproduce their draft slot even if they just repeat their numbers from 2015 or 2016 (Rudolph, Fitzgerald, Ware, Ingram, Forte, Vereen, Williams). And the TEs could put up a ton of points in this format, even if their names don't sound exciting. Going 3 TEs early ended up working out fine - if I hadn't then I might've ended up with Zach Miller late but I also could've just wound up flexing a WR. Late-breaking news means slight downgrades to QB Dolphins and DST Bills and a slight upgrade to Ertz; the combined effect only hurts me a little (though it is weird to be a surprise Jay Cutler owner).
According to the projections that I used to draft, the best non-me teams belong to Blinky, [icon], BassNBrew, and jhexel.
My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment to compare positions, follow the numbers except for judgment calls when guys are close or there's breaking news, adjust position values slightly as the draft progresses.
1.12 WR AJ Green CIN
Was hoping for Gronk (who I see as the last tier 2 player in this format) or Kelce (who is the last of tier 3). I actually have Jordy & Olsen projected very slightly ahead of Green, but I'm worried about Jordy's risk of age-related decline and Olsen seems like he might make it back to me in the 2nd. Plus my gut check favors Green. Also considered: TE Greg Olsen, WR Jordy Nelson.
2.05 TE Greg Olsen CAR
And he did make it back. Olsen ranked 14th, 5th, and 8th in scoring among non-QBs over the past 3 seasons. Seems like a safe bet to stay near the top this year. Also considered: WR Michael Thomas.
3.12 TE Zach Ertz PHI
Seems like TEs are falling too far. Ertz ranked 18th and 27th in scoring among non-QBs over the past 2 seasons, so he seems like good value here as the 35th non-QB off the board. Eifert is tempting, but I'm worried about the injury risk plus increased competition for targets. Also considered: WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Tyler Eifert, TE Kyle Rudolph.
4.05 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN
Last year's #2 TE in this format. I wasn't planning to take my flex in round 4, and I am relatively down on Rudolph after his Pettigrewesque 2016 breakout (high volume, low efficiency on a weapon-starved offense). But once Jeffery was off the board the gap in value here was too big to pass up, even after downgrading Rudolph compared to how others are projecting him and downgrading all TEs to try to maintain roster flexibility. 2 PPR matters a lot, even if he's "just" a 70 reception guy. Also considered: QB Cam Newton, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Julian Edelman.
5.12 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI
The end of a tier, in my eyes (with just Sanders straggling not too far behind). Some chance of age-related decline at 34, or of Palmer's performance dropping off a cliff, but he was still going strong last year en route to 108/1028/6 (which matched Brandin Cooks's fantasy production) and even has some upside above that if Palmer bounces back closer to his 2015 form. Also considered: none.
6.05 RB Spencer Ware KC
With all the big scorers gone, the rest of the draft is more about filling all 18 slots with solid players who won't blow up in your face (though of course some upside is nice too). And that usually means starting to fill the RB slots with guys who are at least committee backs. Ware fits the bill, and still has a shot at being a workhorse - mid-round rookies usually don't just come in and take over. Also considered: RB Mark Ingram, QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Andy Dalton.
7.12 RB Mark Ingram NO
The Saints RB corps always scores a ton of fantasy points, divided among multiple players, thanks to a bunch of RB receptions and touchdowns. Ingram could lose carries to Peterson and targets to Kamara, but he has a pretty high floor as a versatile part of the committee and decent upside if Peterson or Kamara don't win larger workloads than Hightower or Cadet had. Also considered: QB Tyrod Taylor.
8.05 QB Bills BUF
Tyrod Taylor's running makes him a relatively safe bet to at least be a solid middle-of-the-pack QB, like he has been the past couple years, and he has some upside if Buffalo throws more. He was on my short list 2 rounds ago, so I'm glad to get him here. With some shaky quarterbacking situations in NY, CHI, LA, SF, CLE, and maybe HOU & DEN, it also seems like a bad season to wait on QB until the end of the draft. Also considered: RB Frank Gore.
9.12 QB Dolphins MIA
Got the guy I was hoping for. Ryan Tannehill is another solid middle-of-the-pack QB who successfully keeps the dregs off my roster. He feels like a safer bet to be non-terrible, compared to the other obvious QB options here (Bortles, Bradford & co., Alex Smith / Mahomes). And he has at least some upside in his 2nd year in Gase's system, with Parker showing signs of emerging as a star. Woodhead or Gostkowski would've been worth considering, but with them off the board this was an easy pick. (Update: this pick looks much worse with Tannehill's injury, and Bradford still available in round 12.) Also considered: none.
10.05 RB Matt Forte NYJ
Going into the back half of the draft, I need 3 more WRs and 2 each at RB, PK, and DST. There were similarly valued players available at each of those positions. I decided to break the near-tie by going with RB, since I usually have my 3rd RB by this point and I would like to get my RBs before the committee backs give way to dart throws. Forte seems pretty safely locked in to his committee role. Powell is likely to have the larger role, and the Jets are likely to be terrible, but that information is already baked into Forte's projection which has him at the top of my RB board. Also considered: WR Kenny Britt, DST New England Patriots, PK Matt Bryant.
11.12 DST Patriots NWE
Bradford, Bortles, and Alex Smith are the top 3 players on my draft board; I guess I should've waited on QB instead of taking Tannehill. Vinatieri and the Pats D were neck-and-neck for the lead among the positions where I still have space. I was going to break the tie in favor of the kicker since they run out, but Luck's injury shifted things the other way. The Patriots are consistently among the better fantasy defenses, and they are likely to get playoff points. I'll probably use 2 of my next 3 picks on kickers. Also considered: PK Adam Vinatieri.
12.05 PK Adam Vinatieri IND
The Luck injury is likely a minor issue, and was a tiebreaker rather than a dealbreaker with my last pick, so Vinatieri is the play here. I don't want a repeat of last year where kicker troubles cost me the league. Also considered: DST Kansas City Chiefs, DST Arizona Cardinals, RB Kareem Hunt, PK Cairo Santos.
13.12 PK Phil Dawson ARI
Solid team, secure job. I want to nail down the kicker spot with either this pick or the next one, since I'm at least a little worried about job security for every kicker left except for Dawson, Lambo, Hauschka, and Succop (and the least risky options among the rest are also on pretty terrible teams). And I see a wider gap between those 4 kickers than I do between the 4 WRs than I'm eyeing, so I'll go with the kicker here. Also considered: DST Chiefs, WR Ted Ginn, WR Marqise Lee, WR Kevin White, WR Tyler Lockett.
14.05 WR Tyler Lockett SEA
He'll roughly be worth this slot if he just repeats his 2015-16 production, and he has some upside as a 3rd year WR who has flashed talent and is competing for Seattle's #2 receiver spot. (Though also some downside risk from the leg injury.) Also considered: WR Marqise Lee, DST Chiefs.
15.12 WR Marqise Lee JAX
Glad to get 2 of the WRs that I passed on in round 13. Similar to Lockett, Lee may have overtaken Hurns as the Jaguars' #2 receiver and he should at least be regularly involved as their 3rd receiver. Relatively high floor with some upside. Also considered: none.
16.05 RB Shane Vereen NYG
Vereen's per-game production in New York has been similar to Sproles's in Philly. Vereen does have more injury risk, but I think people are discounting him too much based on last year's torn triceps. There is some uncertainty about Vereen's role, but less so than for most RBs in the last third of this draft, and that uncertainty includes some possibility of getting a larger role than expected. Went RB because options are a lot thinner there than at WR or DST. Also considered: DST Rams, WR Chris Conley.
17.12 DST Bills BUF
I strongly considered Mike Williams here, before deciding that I didn't want to take that gamble and that the much safer, lower-upside Terrance Williams belonged at the top of my WR board. But there will be 3 defenses going off the board before my next pick, compared with only 2 flex players, so I went defense here. The Bills have a strong line which should get its share of sacks, and a new coaching staff who could help them play better as a team. Also considered: WR Terrance Williams, WR Mike Williams, DST Colts.
18.05 WR Terrance Williams DAL
Williams has averaged 44/699/5 during his career (regular season only), with a low of 594 yards. Upside is very limited, but he seems like a safe bet to be in that range again (since Dallas hasn't added competition). Also considered: WR Mike Williams, WR J.J. Nelson.
Review: I like this team. Seems like a relatively safe, solid roster (though of course any roster can wind up getting ravaged by injuries, or suspensions, or vets hitting the wall, or depth chart shuffles). Pretty happy with the RB/WR contributors I was able to get late after focusing on QB, DST, and PK in the mid-rounds. This team is not dripping with upside, but for a lot of vets some decline was priced in so they can outproduce their draft slot even if they just repeat their numbers from 2015 or 2016 (Rudolph, Fitzgerald, Ware, Ingram, Forte, Vereen, Williams). And the TEs could put up a ton of points in this format, even if their names don't sound exciting. Going 3 TEs early ended up working out fine - if I hadn't then I might've ended up with Zach Miller late but I also could've just wound up flexing a WR. Late-breaking news means slight downgrades to QB Dolphins and DST Bills and a slight upgrade to Ertz; the combined effect only hurts me a little (though it is weird to be a surprise Jay Cutler owner).
According to the projections that I used to draft, the best non-me teams belong to Blinky, [icon], BassNBrew, and jhexel.
