6 points?
If you are talking about points per game I guess that sort of makes sense. As we are talking about total points however kicker 16 last season scored 151 points. In 2015 kicker 16 scored 136 points. This averages to 143 points. Which is 8.9 points per game.
If you are taking a zero at the kicker position you are losing 143 total points compared to the average.
I have had some back luck in regards to this recently drafting Blair Walsh for example last year who only provided 61 points before the Vikings canned him. Josh Brown only scored 50 points last year. This is what you are trying to hopefully avoid. Taking less than 100 points from the kicker position. A top five kicker should give your team 180+ points which is only a marginal advantage over the average. The point is to not take zero. The longer you wait the higher odds are that you will be taking a zero. At this point in time there are several kicker battles in the NFL undecided. I can tell you that the two kickers the Vikings have right now are neck and neck as far as which one will win the job. I really don't know which one it will be. The same is true for several other NFL teams.
I am not sure why your talking about this in terms of points per game?
The top QB are providing 150-200 points advantage over the average QB. However the top QBs tend to change each year, with a few exceptions, like the Patriots or Packers.
In 2015 Cam Newton was the highest scoring QB 535 points. In 2016 he was QB 24 and scored 319 points. If you are picking the QB high, you really need to be right. The Falcons were the 2nd highest scoring QB in 2016 530 points (notice that Cam and Ryan made the super bowl and enjoyed the extra points from these playoff games) in 2015 Ryan scored 283 points and was QB 27. Thats a pretty big swing no?
But lets say your high QB pick works out, and scores 150 points more than the average QB score. If you take zero at kicker then your advantage gained from the high QB pick gets lost by not having a good enough kicker.
It most certainly does. However you always risk that your top QB pick ends up only being average, or perhaps even below average any given year, see the Cam Newton and Matt Ryan examples above. If that team does not make the playoffs, then those extra games do not count in your favor.
To illustrate this using you example of the Packers QB vs Tampa QB over 17 weeks the Packers had 466 points and Tampa had 335 points. So this was a 135 point advantage of Qb 1 over Qb 11 last year.
The 3 extra games from the Packers added an additional 98 points to the total.
Making the playoffs is hard. Some players like Brady have better odds of doing it than others such as the NFC South QBs who have made it the last couple seasons.
If your player does make the playoffs, it might only be one additional game instead of 3. Only a few teams advance that far in the playoffs.
It is vastly important, but also requires quite a bit of luck to bank on those extra points from the playoff games.
The margins between an average QB who scores about 300 points and a top 5 QB scoring about 400 points is significant, but also difficult to predict. Plenty of times a top 5 Qb will end up just scoring near the average and no real advantage is gained.
The worst QB only scores about 200 points. So you are giving up a 100 point advantage to the field and even more to the teams who do land the top 5 QB scorers.
However teams who only have average or below average QBs are likely stronger at other positions, such as RB/TE/WR.