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Redraft pick 7 (1 Viewer)

cloppbeast

cloppbeast

Footballguy
The first six picks have so far been pretty predictable. Not counting 2QB leagues, whether PPR or Standard, I haven't done a league where David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Odel Beckham, Julio Jones, or Ezekial Elliot have fallen out of the 6th pick. (Talk of the latter's pending suspension could change things.) The second tier starts with the 7th overall.

So who you taking: AJ Green, Mike Evans, LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon, somebody else?

Arguments too could be made for Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, Jay Ajayi, Jordy Nelson, or Jordan Howard, but these players could fall to the 17-21 for you to take with your next pick. It's worth it to wait.

 
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cloppbeast said:
The first six picks have so far been pretty predictable. Not counting 2QB leagues, whether PPR or Standard, I haven't done a league where David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Odel Beckham, Julio Jones, or Ezekial Elliot have fallen out of the 6th pick. (Talk of the latter's pending suspension could change things.) The second tier starts with the 7th overall.

So who you taking: AJ Green, Mike Evans, LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon, somebody else?

Arguments too could be made for Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, Jay Ajayi, Jordy Nelson, or Jordan Howard, but these players could fall to the 17-21 for you to take with your next pick. It's worth it to wait.
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Obviously Zeke's possible suspension could alter the top 6, but I would be debating between AJ Green and Lesean McCoy there. I totally understand choosing Mike Evans. Anyone else seems like a bit of a stretch to me. 

 
I would be leaning Mike Evans....I think TB might be on to something in the passing game this year and Djax is almost the perfect guy to have lined up opposite of you...it doesn't really matter anyway cause Winston will still feed Evans if he is covered and expect him to win the battle....trust him more than the other guys you listed....AJ would be next for me and then maybe Jordy

 
Non-ppr I would take McCoy or Gordon

PPR I might consider Nelson, Green, Evans in that order but would probably still take a RB.

 
As much as I don't like Gordon in general (injuries and I hate his MF surgery), I'd lean toward him vs McCoy. 

I think Evans poses some very intriguing value. Zeke might drop to 6 with his suspension, if he's suspended, so he'd be a great pick there.
 

Twist my arm and I'm probably going Evans with the hope to land Ajayi round 2, Crowell round 3. Judging by where Tyreek Hill is going, he's a potential round 4 pick... 

That'd be a pretty awesome first 4 picks IMO

 
Dr. Dan said:
As much as I don't like Gordon in general (injuries and I hate his MF surgery), I'd lean toward him vs McCoy. 

I think Evans poses some very intriguing value. Zeke might drop to 6 with his suspension, if he's suspended, so he'd be a great pick there.
 

Twist my arm and I'm probably going Evans with the hope to land Ajayi round 2, Crowell round 3. Judging by where Tyreek Hill is going, he's a potential round 4 pick... 

That'd be a pretty awesome first 4 picks IMO
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Why Gordon over McCoy??

 
Freeman is my clear #7 here independent of league tendencies etc.

I believe he is the most likely to sustain his over all numbers from the prior year.  

 
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Ilov80s said:
Why Gordon over McCoy??
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Sorry, I mis-typed. What I meant was I'd be leaning between Gordon vs McCoy. Not toward Gordon. Honestly I'd probably take McCoy over Gordon. But IMO McCoy at 7 is a pick or two higher than he should go. I think Ajayi's PPG wont' be too far off from McCoy. A WR you can get in round 2 will be drastically lower than Evans PPG

 
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Dr. Dan said:
Sorry, I mis-typed. What I meant was I'd be leaning between Gordon vs McCoy. Not toward Gordon. Honestly I'd probably take McCoy over Gordon. But IMO McCoy at 7 is a pick or two higher than he should go. I think Ajayi's PPG wont' be too far off from McCoy. A WR you can get in round 2 will be drastically lower than Evans PPG
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Pick 7 is worst isn't it?

 
Dr. Dan said:
Sorry, I mis-typed. What I meant was I'd be leaning between Gordon vs McCoy. Not toward Gordon. Honestly I'd probably take McCoy over Gordon. But IMO McCoy at 7 is a pick or two higher than he should go. I think Ajayi's PPG wont' be too far off from McCoy. A WR you can get in round 2 will be drastically lower than Evans PPG
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Jordy, Dez, Thomas and TY all have similar potential to match Evans imo.

I have McCoy in his own RB tier. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Jordy, Dez, Thomas and TY all have similar potential to match Evans imo.

I have McCoy in his own RB tier. 
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I don't know... I have Evans in the same group as OBJ and Julio. Evans has the ability to be the top WR. I don't see any of those other WRs doing just as good. 

But... you make a good point that Jordy/Dez/TY (I won't put Thomas there... had him last year, guy would score 12 points a game only. So frustrating) could score just as high as Evans on any given week, I just don't see that being weekly. 


Pick 7 is tough but not the worst. I think pick 10-11 is the worst. All of the top WRs are gone, RBs are gone... you really can't blow that pick. 
You're stuck with do I hold my nose and pick Murray here...? Do I reach and take Ajayi? Do I go with a WR?? 
At least with pick 11 or 12 you know you have a pick coming back really quick so you can bet 1 of the 4 you're deciding between will be there. With pick 10 you have to get it right. 

At least at 7 you kind of have some good options to choose from... 

 
Ilov80s said:
I don't think so. AJ is in same tier as Julio and OBJ for me. 
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This is funny/ironic. I have AJ in the same tier as Jordy, Dez, and TY  :)  - I'd likely take AJ over any of them but I don't expect him to out perform them ridiculously 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
This is funny/ironic. I have AJ in the same tier as Jordy, Dez, and TY  :)  - I'd likely take AJ over any of them but I don't expect him to out perform them ridiculously 
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I think they are all capable of scoring on par with AJ but they lack the safety AJ has. Each has some risks. AJ is nearly flawless. 

 
To elaborate on my choice- I likely pass on a RB because both Gordon and McCoy have their risks.

Gordon has injury risks. I don't like his MF surgery history. Although that's working out so far its not a long term fix
McCoy seems to get rest if my memory serves me right. That's frustrating. He's been at the top of his game for a long time now, how much longer can that last. 

I would pick Evans because he is a rising star. He is less likely to bust than Gordon/McCoy. AJ is a legitimate pick here as well, I just personally have AJ ranked lower (right behind Evans). I think either would be good because they are unlikely to bust. Both of them are safe picks

I think at pick 7 you have to go conservative because if you go McCoy or Gordon or a different RB and they get hurt or have a bad season... that's going to hurt you a ton. I think Ajayi may be there round 2, Crowell definitely round 3. Those two at RB are pretty nice (I'm biased, those will be my 2 RBs kept for this season). 

I'm jaded against Thomas... I think having him for a WR1 is kind of worthless; 12 points a game is nice for your flex or WR2, but not WR1. 

Im fairly conservative in drafting, so that's my take. I like what a lot of other people have said here, and it's fun to see different opinions on the same players

 
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Non PPR, I'm going with Shady who has a slight edge over Gordon. PPR, I like AJ Green.  He was on pace for a career year in 2016 before injury.

 
Isn't AJ coming off a torn ACL suffered in week 10 last year ? That, plus the decimated O-line in Cincy doesn't scare people ?  I know it concerns me.

I pick 9 in my re-draft league. I expect Evans and McCoy to go 7/8, leaving me choosing between Gordon/Freeman if I go RB, or Green/Jordy if I go WR.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Pick 7 is tough but not the worst. I think pick 10-11 is the worst. All of the top WRs are gone, RBs are gone... you really can't blow that pick. 
You're stuck with do I hold my nose and pick Murray here...? Do I reach and take Ajayi? Do I go with a WR?? 
At least with pick 11 or 12 you know you have a pick coming back really quick so you can bet 1 of the 4 you're deciding between will be there. With pick 10 you have to get it right. 

At least at 7 you kind of have some good options to choose from... 
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I'd prefer pick 10. Of the guys you're mulling over at 7, you'll definitely get two of them at pick 10 and 16. At 7 you're the picking the first of the next tier, not the ideal, and with your 2nd round pick you might pick the first of the next tier too.

For instance, I just ended up with AJ Green and Aaron Rodgers with 7 and 18. The 10 hole got Gordon and Nelson.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Obviously Zeke's possible suspension could alter the top 6, but I would be debating between AJ Green and Lesean McCoy there. I totally understand choosing Mike Evans. Anyone else seems like a bit of a stretch to me. 
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Yep

cloppbeast said:
In PPR, you're definitely better off going WR. I have Nelson ranked the highest, but I'd never take him at 7 since I could get him in round 2.
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I understand this thought but it's wrong imo. You want to make sure your rb gets receptions, but you don't just go wr in ppr. You still might be better with wr, but it's not a definite.

 
-OZ- said:
Yep

I understand this thought but it's wrong imo. You want to make sure your rb gets receptions, but you don't just go wr in ppr. You still might be better with wr, but it's not a definite.
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Ok. So which RB aval at 7 will get you receptions?

 
TripItUp said:
Freeman is my clear #7 here independent of league tendencies etc.

I believe he is the most likely to sustain his over all numbers from the prior year.  
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Same here.  Coleman will get his touches, but keeps Freeman fresh and lots of goal line action in Atlanta

 
cloppbeast said:
Ok. So which RB aval at 7 will get you receptions?
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Mccoy got 50 last year, which is roughly his career average (down in 14 and 15).  Freeman and Murray also were in the 50s, though I expect them to drop a bit in 17. Good enough for me to take mccoy 7.

 
-OZ- said:
Yep

I understand this thought but it's wrong imo. You want to make sure your rb gets receptions, but you don't just go wr in ppr. You still might be better with wr, but it's not a definite.
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Right. McCoy had 51 catches last year which isn't DJ or Bell, but it was top 10 for a RB. It's not like that is an outlier for him either. He has had seasons of 78, 54, 52 and 48 receptions in the past. If anything with McCoy, I would worry about some TD regression, even for him 14 was a lot. I know he has shown signs of wear with him lower body strains and sprains, but when healthy he has showed he's still got it. He's one of the best RBs in NFL history on a team with a great OL, very little competition for touches and he's 29. Don't overthink this. 

 
I've been taking Jordy Nelson at the end of the first round without hesitation. I also wouldn't hesitate to take him with the seventh overall pick.  You're getting last year's WR 2 with the seventh pick. Although he is a few months older, he is a few months healthier, too.I do not see that anything else has changed in Gren Bay. He is one of the safest picks you can make. 

 
-OZ- said:
Mccoy got 50 last year, which is roughly his career average (down in 14 and 15).  Freeman and Murray also were in the 50s, though I expect them to drop a bit in 17. Good enough for me to take mccoy 7.
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Mike Evans caught 96. That's 46 more points in your flex position.

 
stuckinthemuck said:
I've been taking Jordy Nelson at the end of the first round without hesitation. I also wouldn't hesitate to take him with the seventh overall pick.  You're getting last year's WR 2 with the seventh pick. Although he is a few months older, he is a few months healthier, too.I do not see that anything else has changed in Gren Bay. He is one of the safest picks you can make. 
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I guess people are thinking he might make it back to them in round 2. I agree about Jordy though, and am very likely to grab him at # 9.

 
Keith1 said:
Isn't AJ coming off a torn ACL suffered in week 10 last year ? That, plus the decimated O-line in Cincy doesn't scare people ?  I know it concerns me.

I pick 9 in my re-draft league. I expect Evans and McCoy to go 7/8, leaving me choosing between Gordon/Freeman if I go RB, or Green/Jordy if I go WR.
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No, he hurt his hamstring. He didn't even go on IR until week 16 I think as there was hope he might return that year. He was fully cleared for all offseason work. He is fine. 

Also, the o-line was bad last year. Bad o-line is ok with me, Bengals won't be able to run the ball well and will throw a lot. 

Eta: fixed thanks @Hankmoody

 
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TripItUp said:
Freeman is my clear #7 here independent of league tendencies etc.

I believe he is the most likely to sustain his over all numbers from the prior year.  
Click to expand...
That is a good choice, I would throw him in the mix with AJ, Evans and McCoy. That's my next tier of players. 

 
cloppbeast said:
Mike Evans caught 96. That's 46 more points in your flex position.
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and McCoy still outscored him. Evans best ever PPR year he averaged 18.8 ppg. McCoy has averaged higher than that 5 of the last 7 years. 

ETA: I take AJ Green in PPR at 7. I do think the WRs are safer in PPR, just playing devils advocate

 
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What I don't like about the others...

gordon - regression to the mean TD wise

mccoy - age, injury history, inconsistent offense

Evans - increased competition for targets, regression to mean, no YAC

 
Ilov80s said:
No, he hurt his shoulder. He didn't even go on IR until week 16 I think as there was hope he might return that year. He was fully cleared for all offseason work. He is fine. 

Also, the o-line was bad last year. Bad o-line is ok with me, Bengals won't be able to run the ball well and will throw a lot. 
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AJ Green tore his hamstring last year.

 
cloppbeast said:
I'd prefer pick 10. Of the guys you're mulling over at 7, you'll definitely get two of them at pick 10 and 16. At 7 you're the picking the first of the next tier, not the ideal, and with your 2nd round pick you might pick the first of the next tier too.

For instance, I just ended up with AJ Green and Aaron Rodgers with 7 and 18. The 10 hole got Gordon and Nelson.
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I guess it depends on what your tiers are.  Your tiers must end at 6 and 17.  My elite tier ends at 8, and my 2nd tier ends at 19 (20 if you include Rodgers). 

So with my tiering, the 7 pick is a decent spot.

That said I would be very happy with a Gordon/Nelson start if I were drafting in the 10 hole.

 
I'd actually seen several drafts where Evans has gone ahead of either Beckham or Julio. Not saying I agree with it, but I don't think the top-6 is written in stone at all. I've also seen a couple drafts where Julio fell to 8, behind Evans and McCoy. 

If the top-6 went like that, I'd lean toward AJ Green, but I really think its very possible Julio or Beckham, or maybe Elliott could fall there, and it wouldn't be a surprise.

 
Evans will be regressing this year with decreased targets, TDs and receptions.  

You are buying high here when you should be finding players to buy low on, or at least present some degree of value.

 
TripItUp said:
Evans will be regressing this year with decreased targets, TDs and receptions.  

You are buying high here when you should be finding players to buy low on, or at least present some degree of value.
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You're buying high on everyone at 7.  There's no "value' unless one of the big boys slides.  I'll take the shot on the upside of Evans or Green here.

 
TripItUp said:
Evans will be regressing this year with decreased targets, TDs and receptions.  

You are buying high here when you should be finding players to buy low on, or at least present some degree of value.
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I agree and have a lengthy post about it the Mike Evans thread, but at 7, I get it as I think he's got a very safe floor combined with a high ceiling. I have him more as an end of the 1st round guy, I would fault nobody for taking him at 7.

 
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