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Pick #9 Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

Dr. Octopus

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I was not pleased drawing the #9 draft slot this - anyone like it?

I think top 4 or 12 is the way to go this year - but you make the best with what you got.

After doing a few mocks with others (and alone based on what I think my league will do) my dream scenario is having McCoy fall to the #9 spot. I project him right below Bell/DJ and right there with Zeke so that has a lot to do with it. I'd settle for Jordy, Evans or AJ Green but I just think there's a lot of value in rounds 3 and 4 for WRs so I'd love to start RB-RB if I can and not have to mine through the RB mess that lands in 3-5. I like pairing Howard or Ajayi with McCoy - but generally I will let the draft come to me and have also been ok with mocks where I started off with Nelson-Mike Thomas (or WR/WR).

What say you fellow #9ers?

 
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irishidiot said:
If McCoy isn't there go WR!!  2nd rd----good options.   9 is not a bad slot.IMO
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If McCoy isn't there that's what I've been doing - Jordy, Evans or AJ Green are the options (OBJ fell in a few mocks but I do not think that's realistic in my real draft).

 
Absolutely go WR here. If AJ Green makes it to you- consider yourself lucky. He's remarkably consistent. Yes, he got hurt last year but is rock solid. Remember, while you can't win your league in round #1, you can lose it. Thus, if you have a back of the round selection- play it safe and take reliable production.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
If McCoy isn't there that's what I've been doing - Jordy, Evans or AJ Green are the options (OBJ fell in a few mocks but I do not think that's realistic in my real draft).
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Yeah, I think it is pretty clearly McCoy or whichever WR you prefer from that group, it's a fine start. The bigger pick is the 2nd one. What's best case scenario at 16?

 
Ilov80s said:
Yeah, I think it is pretty clearly McCoy or whichever WR you prefer from that group, it's a fine start. The bigger pick is the 2nd one. What's best case scenario at 16?
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I like Jordan Howard there - I know some may get spooked by lack of a track record but the numbers he put up last year were historically good for a rookie. Ajayi is the other RB that makes some sense there.

At WR you have Mike Thomas, TY Hilton, Cooks or maybe Jordy or Green fall. Like I said I'm fine with taking WRs here as well but I really like guys like Watkins, Cooper, Landry, Adams and Allen in Round 3 at that's when the RBs start getting shaky.

 
I've had 9 twice...

McCoy in the first and Freeman in the second

the other

Evans in the first and Jordy in the second

Happy with both those starts.

 
I have pick # 9 in my 1/2 point PPR league. McCoy scares the hell out of me. I think THIS is the year the wheels fall off. I have concerns about Melvin but I would take him over McCoy at # 9. I am also considering Freeman there. No way do I think he makes it back to pick # 16. As for WR, AJ scares me a bit too---coming off that injury. Eifert is healthy and I think Cincy is going to want to lean on the run game---what with Mixon, Hill and Gio there. Barring a significant suspension for Zeke, I am fairly confident that the first 7 picks in my league are: Johnson, Bell, A. Brown, Zeke, Beckham, Julio and Evans. The guy at # 8 could surprise and go Rodgers (6 point passing TDs), but I think he goes McCoy there. Which leaves me choosing between Gordon, Freeman, Jordy or AJ.

As for the second round, at pick # 16, I think Michael Thomas falls there. Debating between him and Gronk.

 
Keith1 said:
I have pick # 9 in my 1/2 point PPR league. McCoy scares the hell out of me. I think THIS is the year the wheels fall off. I have concerns about Melvin but I would take him over McCoy at # 9. I am also considering Freeman there. No way do I think he makes it back to pick # 16. As for WR, AJ scares me a bit too---coming off that injury. Eifert is healthy and I think Cincy is going to want to lean on the run game---what with Mixon, Hill and Gio there. Barring a significant suspension for Zeke, I am fairly confident that the first 7 picks in my league are: Johnson, Bell, A. Brown, Zeke, Beckham, Julio and Evans. The guy at # 8 could surprise and go Rodgers (6 point passing TDs), but I think he goes McCoy there. Which leaves me choosing between Gordon, Freeman, Jordy or AJ.

As for the second round, at pick # 16, I think Michael Thomas falls there. Debating between him and Gronk.
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At 29 it's possible that the wheels fall off, but I just don't see it. McCoy is an elite talent and those guys last longer than the average back. Gordon was a volume producer last season, and while I don't see much of a challenge to him for carries his two year ypc average scares me more than McCoy's age.

Gronk at #16 is a no go for me - I just think he takes too much of a beating and the Pats may give him less work to keep him healthy. He could pay off there though of course.

 
I love 9.  I do purely BPA in those rounds so all I have to do is rank the top 16.  DJ, EZE, OBJ, Bell, AB, Evans, Julio, AJG, LeSean, Nelson, Gurley, Thomas, Ajayi, Freeman, Gordon, Howard would be the worst case scenario for me.  That tier drops off shortly after that for me so I'm good with getting any two of those guys.

 
Hankmoody said:
I love 9.  I do purely BPA in those rounds so all I have to do is rank the top 16.  DJ, EZE, OBJ, Bell, AB, Evans, Julio, AJG, LeSean, Nelson, Gurley, Thomas, Ajayi, Freeman, Gordon, Howard would be the worst case scenario for me.  That tier drops off shortly after that for me so I'm good with getting any two of those guys.
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Interesting analysis. Not sure that I rank Gurley or Ajayi ahead of either Gordon or Freeman though. My only concern in starting out with say Jordy at 9 and then Michael Thomas at 16, is that you are looking at a guy like Ty Montgomery or Joe Mixon as your RB1 at pick # 33. Not sure I have the cajones to do that.

 
Keith1 said:
Interesting analysis. Not sure that I rank Gurley or Ajayi ahead of either Gordon or Freeman though. My only concern in starting out with say Jordy at 9 and then Michael Thomas at 16, is that you are looking at a guy like Ty Montgomery or Joe Mixon as your RB1 at pick # 33. Not sure I have the cajones to do that.
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That's the issue for me as well. I actually really like the 3rd and 4th round WRs. The RBs? Not so much.

 
In the mocks I have done it's been pretty rare that one of those RB's isn't there.  I really have to force the WR/WR by taking someone not on that menu like Cooper (who I hate at his ADP) or Dez who I am not too bad on the slight reach.

I'm also much more confident in the 3rd tier of RB's and, more importantly, streaming tier 4 and beyond in a zero RB tactic. 

The order was kind of just thrown together, I do have Freeman higher that Ajayi.  Bottom line is that tier is solid and even goes a couple of guys deeper if you must (Dez in particular).

 
Dr. Octopus said:
That's the issue for me as well. I actually really like the 3rd and 4th round WRs. The RBs? Not so much.
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I thin that Thomas makes it to pick # 16 (especially in my 6 point passing TD league where Rodgers and Brady are likely to go in the top 15). Which means that as much as I like Jordy, I probably will go RB at # 9. Which takes us back to the McCoy--Gordon--Freeman discussion. I can't taker Howard or Ajayi before one of those 3 RBs.

 
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The Elliot suspension changes the landscape a bit - I see little chance of McCoy falling to pick 1.09 now. I guess the new dilemma is should we grab Elliot at 2.04. I'd perhaps consider it based on who was available - but I'd likely pass as there should still be some productive players left there.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The Elliot suspension changes the landscape a bit - I see little chance of McCoy falling to pick 1.09 now. I guess the new dilemma is should we grab Elliot at 2.04. I'd perhaps consider it based on who was available - but I'd likely pass as there should still be some productive players left there.
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I agree; there's doesn't seem to be much chance of McCoy making it to 1.09 now. The way I see it, the following guys will likely be gone in most leagues:

  1. DJ
  2. Bell
  3. A. Brown
  4. McCoy
  5. ODB
  6. Julio
This should leave one of the following available at #9:

  1. Gordon
  2. Green
  3. Evans
  4. Freeman
All of which i'd be ok with. Depending on your league settings, would likely alter the rankings as well. If you decide to get one of the RB's, i'd definitely consider Elliot at 2.04. If you decide to go with Green of Evans, I think that hole might be too tough to climb out of though. 

 
4th&inches said:
I agree; there's doesn't seem to be much chance of McCoy making it to 1.09 now. The way I see it, the following guys will likely be gone in most leagues:

  1. DJ
  2. Bell
  3. A. Brown
  4. McCoy
  5. ODB
  6. Julio
This should leave one of the following available at #9:

  1. Gordon
  2. Green
  3. Evans
  4. Freeman
All of which i'd be ok with. Depending on your league settings, would likely alter the rankings as well. If you decide to get one of the RB's, i'd definitely consider Elliot at 2.04. If you decide to go with Green of Evans, I think that hole might be too tough to climb out of though. 
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I'd add Jordy to that second set and based on my projections would grab him before Evans or Green (but it's close). I think Freeman comes off the board in that 7-8 range, in my league, and I do not trust Gordon enough. I agree that if you take a first round WR, taking Elliot is a tough road to travel. Even if I didn't grab a RB and instead took Gronk or a WR, I'd still feel better getting safe production instead of waiting on Elliot. It would be tempting though, as even at 4 games I'd probably consider him at 1.09.

 
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