bulger2holt
Footballguy
You guys are great at this. Lets hear who you have on these. It's very helpful to morons like me.
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3 must haves... 3 must avoids (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bulger2holt
- Start date
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Relative to their ADP
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
I too am terrible at this.
Must haves:
Cooper Kupp - Price to acquire is cheap. I think the kid can ball regardless of a questionable QB. Has pretty weak competition for targets.
Austin Hooper - Reasonable price to acquire, reasonable competition for targets, solid QB and offense.
Pierre Garcon - The cat's probably already out of the bag on this guy, but he's a wr3 priced guy with wr2 or better upside.
Avoid:
Michael Thomas - I think the loss of Cooks hurts him significantly. I'm not a buyer at his ADP.
All of the NE RBs - The mess is especially bad this year. IMO, Lewis is still the best talent of the lot.
Ty Montgomery - I'm not sold on him and don't think he can carry the load. I'd rather take a dice roll on Williams, Jones, and Mays at a much lower ADP.
Must haves:
Cooper Kupp - Price to acquire is cheap. I think the kid can ball regardless of a questionable QB. Has pretty weak competition for targets.
Austin Hooper - Reasonable price to acquire, reasonable competition for targets, solid QB and offense.
Pierre Garcon - The cat's probably already out of the bag on this guy, but he's a wr3 priced guy with wr2 or better upside.
Avoid:
Michael Thomas - I think the loss of Cooks hurts him significantly. I'm not a buyer at his ADP.
All of the NE RBs - The mess is especially bad this year. IMO, Lewis is still the best talent of the lot.
Ty Montgomery - I'm not sold on him and don't think he can carry the load. I'd rather take a dice roll on Williams, Jones, and Mays at a much lower ADP.
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Must have:
Tyreek Hill - should be focal point of KC offense, increased usage, terrific upside for where he's being drafted.
Cameron Meredith - a legit #1 receiver. I feel like some people are discounting him as a fluke because of his lack of draft pedigree and the Bears' offense/QB play, neither of which I'm concerned about.
Cooper Kupp - should be safety blanket for Goff from day 1. Terrific, pro-ready WR who can be a PPR factor, great guy to have at the end of your bench, with upside for more.
Must avoid:
Michael Thomas - hype is out of control, you're basically drafting him at his absolute upside. Cooks departing hurts him I think because he's not a true #1 receiver and may struggle a bit being the focal point of defenses.
Lamar Miller - maybe obvious, but just not interested at the price. Should see some real competition from Foreman as the season progresses.
Mike Gillislee - Don't mind the player, but I feel like the price is too rich given there are other good options in that backfield. Not sure his production will be consistent enough to warrant where he's being drafted.
Tyreek Hill - should be focal point of KC offense, increased usage, terrific upside for where he's being drafted.
Cameron Meredith - a legit #1 receiver. I feel like some people are discounting him as a fluke because of his lack of draft pedigree and the Bears' offense/QB play, neither of which I'm concerned about.
Cooper Kupp - should be safety blanket for Goff from day 1. Terrific, pro-ready WR who can be a PPR factor, great guy to have at the end of your bench, with upside for more.
Must avoid:
Michael Thomas - hype is out of control, you're basically drafting him at his absolute upside. Cooks departing hurts him I think because he's not a true #1 receiver and may struggle a bit being the focal point of defenses.
Lamar Miller - maybe obvious, but just not interested at the price. Should see some real competition from Foreman as the season progresses.
Mike Gillislee - Don't mind the player, but I feel like the price is too rich given there are other good options in that backfield. Not sure his production will be consistent enough to warrant where he's being drafted.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Haves
Gronk - I may be asking for it, but he provides the most unique value proposition in FF when healthy.
Dalvin Cook - Sometimes the off-field/micro-scouting stuff tips towards too much caution. Cook should have been a 1st rounder. He's on a team where he has the chance to establish himself as their primary offensive weapon - all the while, his defense is top 5 so game flow issues should favor him as well.
Crowder - Injury issues for Reed already acting up while Garçon and Jackson are gone. Pryor should be a nice add, but Crowder feels like the value play.
Avoids
Michael Thomas - For me, this might be a minority opinion - but I see the Saints running the ball to alleviate the pressure in their defense. They're no longer the offensive big dog in the NFC South. They'll need to manage more games. ADP way to high for my taste.
Marshawn - Didn't like him two years ago.
Martavis - I absolutely understand the upside. I understood Josh Gordon's upside as well. I hope for the best with the guy and it sounds like he's got his mind right. But he walks into some second hand smoke the wrong way and sayonara.
Gronk - I may be asking for it, but he provides the most unique value proposition in FF when healthy.
Dalvin Cook - Sometimes the off-field/micro-scouting stuff tips towards too much caution. Cook should have been a 1st rounder. He's on a team where he has the chance to establish himself as their primary offensive weapon - all the while, his defense is top 5 so game flow issues should favor him as well.
Crowder - Injury issues for Reed already acting up while Garçon and Jackson are gone. Pryor should be a nice add, but Crowder feels like the value play.
Avoids
Michael Thomas - For me, this might be a minority opinion - but I see the Saints running the ball to alleviate the pressure in their defense. They're no longer the offensive big dog in the NFC South. They'll need to manage more games. ADP way to high for my taste.
Marshawn - Didn't like him two years ago.
Martavis - I absolutely understand the upside. I understood Josh Gordon's upside as well. I hope for the best with the guy and it sounds like he's got his mind right. But he walks into some second hand smoke the wrong way and sayonara.
fightingillini
Footballguy
My haves are:
1 - Willie Snead. Cheap WR3 with WR2 upside now that Cooks is gone. Snead benefits from Cook's departure much more than Michael Thomas.
2 - Bilal Powell (PPR leagues). NYJ are going to be behind a lot this year....Powell could catch 80+ passes.
3 - Jimmy Graham. I think he comes back to the TE elite (albeit not to his level when in NO), and you can get him 2-3 rounds cheaper than Gronk or Kelce.
My avoids are:
1 - Lynch......going WAY too high for a guy that was out of football for a year.
2 - Brandon Cooks......love his talent but way too many mouths to feed in NE. WR13 seems way too high.
3 - Matt Ryan......always worry about a guy coming off of a career year. Super Bowl hangover could occur as well. Let some else draft him, and take a QB like Jameis Winston 2-3 rounds later.
1 - Willie Snead. Cheap WR3 with WR2 upside now that Cooks is gone. Snead benefits from Cook's departure much more than Michael Thomas.
2 - Bilal Powell (PPR leagues). NYJ are going to be behind a lot this year....Powell could catch 80+ passes.
3 - Jimmy Graham. I think he comes back to the TE elite (albeit not to his level when in NO), and you can get him 2-3 rounds cheaper than Gronk or Kelce.
My avoids are:
1 - Lynch......going WAY too high for a guy that was out of football for a year.
2 - Brandon Cooks......love his talent but way too many mouths to feed in NE. WR13 seems way too high.
3 - Matt Ryan......always worry about a guy coming off of a career year. Super Bowl hangover could occur as well. Let some else draft him, and take a QB like Jameis Winston 2-3 rounds later.
jtd13
Footballguy
Must haves: Cooks (upside outweighs his ADP IMO, low floor though), Parker (I am buying the steady drumbeat of his personal improvement), Michael Thomas (Not huge believer in him yet, but his floor is very high in redraft)
Must avoid: DeMarco (didn't like what I saw during the stretch last year and Henry looms), Landry (not going to see 2014-2015 volume unless Ajayi goes down and Parker busts), Lynch (hasn't played good football since January 2015).
Must avoid: DeMarco (didn't like what I saw during the stretch last year and Henry looms), Landry (not going to see 2014-2015 volume unless Ajayi goes down and Parker busts), Lynch (hasn't played good football since January 2015).
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I'm going to cheat and go 5, so I can cover each position.
Must haves:
1. Derek Carr, seems like he's still on the upswing(as is Cooper) but he's being valued as if he'll regress slightly. He's going in the teens in most leagues, and feels like a top-10 lock to me.
2. and 3. Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, really think the Saints are being underrated this year, I think losing Cooks will lead to more balance, and these guys will keep each other motivated, and if one gets hurt the other could make a run at top-5. Most drafts Ingram is mid-20's at RB and Peterson is mid 30's.
4. Larry Fitzgerald, think he'll have one last hurrah. 100 catches feels like a lock, and I think his YPC last year was a fluke. He gets that back to normal, and I think 1200-8 is doable. Not bad for a guy routinely available as a WR3.
5. Rob Gronkowski, if he's there anywhere after pick 15, I'm taking him. Biggest positional difference maker there is, is now on the Brady diet, and seemingly in better shape than ever. Less defensive attention can only help.
Must avoids:
1. Andrew Luck, not comfortable with him at all, unless his ADP drops multiple rounds.
2. and 3. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, both are priced too high, feels like a RBBC that could limit Murray's ceiling, while not providing enough for Henry to be startable. I expect similar production out of the Saints duo, and they are available FAR cheaper.
4. Jarvis Landry, sure sounds like Miami doesn't seem to want him to be their guy. Seems they want to be a run heavy, deep ball offense, and while that may or may not happen, Landry isn't discounted enough yet for me to want to risk it.
5. Martellus Bennett, just so many mouths to feed. Maybe he'll be a big TD guy, but I'm not seeing enough targets to rely on him.
Must haves:
1. Derek Carr, seems like he's still on the upswing(as is Cooper) but he's being valued as if he'll regress slightly. He's going in the teens in most leagues, and feels like a top-10 lock to me.
2. and 3. Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, really think the Saints are being underrated this year, I think losing Cooks will lead to more balance, and these guys will keep each other motivated, and if one gets hurt the other could make a run at top-5. Most drafts Ingram is mid-20's at RB and Peterson is mid 30's.
4. Larry Fitzgerald, think he'll have one last hurrah. 100 catches feels like a lock, and I think his YPC last year was a fluke. He gets that back to normal, and I think 1200-8 is doable. Not bad for a guy routinely available as a WR3.
5. Rob Gronkowski, if he's there anywhere after pick 15, I'm taking him. Biggest positional difference maker there is, is now on the Brady diet, and seemingly in better shape than ever. Less defensive attention can only help.
Must avoids:
1. Andrew Luck, not comfortable with him at all, unless his ADP drops multiple rounds.
2. and 3. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, both are priced too high, feels like a RBBC that could limit Murray's ceiling, while not providing enough for Henry to be startable. I expect similar production out of the Saints duo, and they are available FAR cheaper.
4. Jarvis Landry, sure sounds like Miami doesn't seem to want him to be their guy. Seems they want to be a run heavy, deep ball offense, and while that may or may not happen, Landry isn't discounted enough yet for me to want to risk it.
5. Martellus Bennett, just so many mouths to feed. Maybe he'll be a big TD guy, but I'm not seeing enough targets to rely on him.
ZWK
Footballguy
Relative to ADP
Get:
DeVante Parker (WR35): tons of upside
Corey Davis (WR44): ditto
a top-3 QB (Rodgers, Brady, or Brees): should give you a big edge on the pack, available around picks 20-40
Avoid:
Marshawn Lynch (RB14): a 31-year-old RB who last played well at age 28
Christian McCaffrey (RB16): will probably have a smaller workload than Stewart
Jameis Winston (QB9): going a couple rounds ahead of guys like Prescott, Rivers, Dalton, and Taylor who have a reasonable case to be ahead of him straight-up
Get:
DeVante Parker (WR35): tons of upside
Corey Davis (WR44): ditto
a top-3 QB (Rodgers, Brady, or Brees): should give you a big edge on the pack, available around picks 20-40
Avoid:
Marshawn Lynch (RB14): a 31-year-old RB who last played well at age 28
Christian McCaffrey (RB16): will probably have a smaller workload than Stewart
Jameis Winston (QB9): going a couple rounds ahead of guys like Prescott, Rivers, Dalton, and Taylor who have a reasonable case to be ahead of him straight-up
beerbuff
Footballguy
Get:
Brian Hoyer Garbage time QB 17th round ADP vs. Bortles 12th round.
Tyrell Williams: Forget Mike Williams doing anything this year and does anyone really think Keenan will last more than a handful of games-assuming he makes it through pre-season. Remeber last year-he was a WR2. Should be going at least 3 rounds higher
Duke Johnson: They are moving him all over the field and should be a top RB PPR guy. A cheaper version of Woodhead.
Avoid:
Fournette: Bad O-line and bad QB. Ever hear of stacked boxes? More like Gurley last season than Elliott.
Kelvin Benjamin: Overweight WR's are never a good thing. Plus more pass catching options with McCaffrey and Samuel in the mix.
Darren McFadden: An over the hill RB who will most likely only get a couple of early season starts.
Brian Hoyer Garbage time QB 17th round ADP vs. Bortles 12th round.
Tyrell Williams: Forget Mike Williams doing anything this year and does anyone really think Keenan will last more than a handful of games-assuming he makes it through pre-season. Remeber last year-he was a WR2. Should be going at least 3 rounds higher
Duke Johnson: They are moving him all over the field and should be a top RB PPR guy. A cheaper version of Woodhead.
Avoid:
Fournette: Bad O-line and bad QB. Ever hear of stacked boxes? More like Gurley last season than Elliott.
Kelvin Benjamin: Overweight WR's are never a good thing. Plus more pass catching options with McCaffrey and Samuel in the mix.
Darren McFadden: An over the hill RB who will most likely only get a couple of early season starts.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Must Have:
Michael Crabtree - Good offense and he seems to be a red zone favorite
Terrelle Pryor - WR1 potential in an offense that loves to throw the ball
Willie Snead - Someone has to catch all of Brees's passes
Must Avoid:
Jordan Reed - As much as I like him, he's already banged up and will inevitably miss a couple games
Demarco Murray - Another guy that got dinged up in TC already, plus age, plus Henry waiting in the wings
Matt Ryan - Don't like him at his current price. Seems like a good regression candidate
If you couldn't tell, I really like WR value this year.
Michael Crabtree - Good offense and he seems to be a red zone favorite
Terrelle Pryor - WR1 potential in an offense that loves to throw the ball
Willie Snead - Someone has to catch all of Brees's passes
Must Avoid:
Jordan Reed - As much as I like him, he's already banged up and will inevitably miss a couple games
Demarco Murray - Another guy that got dinged up in TC already, plus age, plus Henry waiting in the wings
Matt Ryan - Don't like him at his current price. Seems like a good regression candidate
If you couldn't tell, I really like WR value this year.
Pipes
Footballguy
Wow some of these avoids are on my have lists and vice versa..
Haves:
Jameis Winston - I won't take a Brady or Rodgers high but like to get a good QB on the upswing and Winston fits the bill. He had a respectable fantasy season last year will only Mike Evans as a legit WR. Add weapons DJax and OJ Howard plus another year seasoning I think he's prime for a breakout year. I like Mariotta a lot this year too.
Martellus Bennett - Yes GB has a lot of weapons but the Packers offense is made for a monster TE. Jared Cook would've had a great season last year if not derailed by a high ankle sprain. Once he was back at full strength he put up some solid games late in the year and in the playoffs. I think Bennett is better than Cook. Plus I don't see the Packers Defense being much better so the Packers will be in some high scoring games
Christian McCaffrey - I admit I was a skeptic of his coming out of college but with the glowing camp reports and Stewart being just about done I think the Panthers will find ways to get him the ball. I like him much better than Cook and Mixon yet those guys seem to be getting more hype than McCaffrey. I also like Joe Williams in SF a lot.
Avoids:
Gronk: I love him as a player but he's had some significant injuries over the last few years. I fear he's breaking down. I don't question his talent but with all the mouths to feed in NE I think there is a great chance he'll disappoint in relation to his ADP.
Ingram/Peterson/Kamara - Not sure what the heck is going on in NO but too many mouths to feed. One of these guys could have a solid season or they can just steal touches from each other. I don't know enough about the Saints so I'll let someone else deal with this mess.
Lamar Miller - ADP too high for a 1 dimensional offense. I don't dislike him but I just don't think I'll be paying the appropriate price it will take to get him.
Haves:
Jameis Winston - I won't take a Brady or Rodgers high but like to get a good QB on the upswing and Winston fits the bill. He had a respectable fantasy season last year will only Mike Evans as a legit WR. Add weapons DJax and OJ Howard plus another year seasoning I think he's prime for a breakout year. I like Mariotta a lot this year too.
Martellus Bennett - Yes GB has a lot of weapons but the Packers offense is made for a monster TE. Jared Cook would've had a great season last year if not derailed by a high ankle sprain. Once he was back at full strength he put up some solid games late in the year and in the playoffs. I think Bennett is better than Cook. Plus I don't see the Packers Defense being much better so the Packers will be in some high scoring games
Christian McCaffrey - I admit I was a skeptic of his coming out of college but with the glowing camp reports and Stewart being just about done I think the Panthers will find ways to get him the ball. I like him much better than Cook and Mixon yet those guys seem to be getting more hype than McCaffrey. I also like Joe Williams in SF a lot.
Avoids:
Gronk: I love him as a player but he's had some significant injuries over the last few years. I fear he's breaking down. I don't question his talent but with all the mouths to feed in NE I think there is a great chance he'll disappoint in relation to his ADP.
Ingram/Peterson/Kamara - Not sure what the heck is going on in NO but too many mouths to feed. One of these guys could have a solid season or they can just steal touches from each other. I don't know enough about the Saints so I'll let someone else deal with this mess.
Lamar Miller - ADP too high for a 1 dimensional offense. I don't dislike him but I just don't think I'll be paying the appropriate price it will take to get him.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I think most people just assume he's going to have a natural regression because his rookie year was pretty sensational. It's only natural that when someone breaks out like that, we assume he won't repeat in the 2nd year because defenses key in on him. That plus Cooks is gone, more double coverage. The addition of AP and Brees getting old, more run oriented than in the past is most peoples expectation. Can't speak for everyone but this seems to be the trend of his value.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Must Have:
Aaron Rodgers - perennially underrated in fantasy, can get him in the 3rd. Huge advantage.
Demaryius Thomas - hasn't had less than 90 rec, 1000 yards on a full season. And he's still one of the most talented receivers out there.
Jamaal Charles (PPR) - at least will catch the passes out of the backfield, maybe even eat into CJ's carries. Worth a flyer in the 12th.
Must Avoid:
Tyreek Hill - expanded role won't help when his QB checks down. TD production not sustainable.
Corey Davis - rookie wide receiver competing for touches, now with a bum leg. No thanks.
Tevin Coleman/Derrick Henry - Back up running-backs, unsustainable ypt, and likely a diminished timeshare. Way too expensive.
Aaron Rodgers - perennially underrated in fantasy, can get him in the 3rd. Huge advantage.
Demaryius Thomas - hasn't had less than 90 rec, 1000 yards on a full season. And he's still one of the most talented receivers out there.
Jamaal Charles (PPR) - at least will catch the passes out of the backfield, maybe even eat into CJ's carries. Worth a flyer in the 12th.
Must Avoid:
Tyreek Hill - expanded role won't help when his QB checks down. TD production not sustainable.
Corey Davis - rookie wide receiver competing for touches, now with a bum leg. No thanks.
Tevin Coleman/Derrick Henry - Back up running-backs, unsustainable ypt, and likely a diminished timeshare. Way too expensive.
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Must Have
- Brandon Marshall: (Adp: 72, WR 31) Hot take alert...I think he is the most talented WR on the team and will finish with more FF points than OBJ. I think he is a solid WR1 that you can get for low WR3 price.
- Marvin Jones: (ADP: 134 WR 52) A healthy Jones is going to vastly out produce his late ADP. I think solid WR2 production is in line.
- Tyrell Williams: (ADP: 118 WR 46) He will be the target on the outside while Allen plays the middle for the 4 games he is healthy. I'm projecting low end WR2 numbers while Allen is healthy and low WR1 numbers when he gets hurt week 5.
Must Avoid
- D. Hopkins: (ADP: 26, WR 11) Rookie QB, check. Run first team, check. Solid Defense, check. Low end WR2 production, if your lucky.
- E. Lacy: (ADP: 64, RB25) Lacy behind a crappy O-line on a team that runs through it's QB. No thanks. I think Prosise is the back to own here and you can get him much later(110, RB42)
- L. Fournett: (ADP: 23, RB 11) The Jags may want to run 30 times a game, but I'll believe it when I see it. I would take a shot on him in the 5th or 6th rounds but not in the late second.
- Brandon Marshall: (Adp: 72, WR 31) Hot take alert...I think he is the most talented WR on the team and will finish with more FF points than OBJ. I think he is a solid WR1 that you can get for low WR3 price.
- Marvin Jones: (ADP: 134 WR 52) A healthy Jones is going to vastly out produce his late ADP. I think solid WR2 production is in line.
- Tyrell Williams: (ADP: 118 WR 46) He will be the target on the outside while Allen plays the middle for the 4 games he is healthy. I'm projecting low end WR2 numbers while Allen is healthy and low WR1 numbers when he gets hurt week 5.
Must Avoid
- D. Hopkins: (ADP: 26, WR 11) Rookie QB, check. Run first team, check. Solid Defense, check. Low end WR2 production, if your lucky.
- E. Lacy: (ADP: 64, RB25) Lacy behind a crappy O-line on a team that runs through it's QB. No thanks. I think Prosise is the back to own here and you can get him much later(110, RB42)
- L. Fournett: (ADP: 23, RB 11) The Jags may want to run 30 times a game, but I'll believe it when I see it. I would take a shot on him in the 5th or 6th rounds but not in the late second.
That is by far the boldest call of this thread. Needless to say, I'm 100% sure you'll end up with Marshall. Are you super high on Eli as well, or are you expecting Beckham to disappoint or get in trouble?
I personally think Beckham is the most talented WR in the NFL right now, who wins at every level, and would have even larger numbers if he wasn't handcuffed by Eli.
Borden
Footballguy
Must Haves:
1) Leonard Fournette - He's going to be a workhorse. Talent + opportunity. Bortles and the WRs might be perfect if they can be good enough to avoid putting LF in Gurleys situation from last year. But not good enough that they get away from Fournette. Going at the end of round 2, so if I could pair him with DJ or Bell
2) Dalvin Cook - Similar to LF but his potential lack of GL work means he's a 5th round pick. Could be a PPR gem.
3) Larry Fitzgerald - Finished as WR11 in total PPR points last year and has a mid 5th round pick (53). Going off the ADP that ZWK linked in his post.
Avoids:
1) Lamar Miller - Coaches have said they want to lighten his work load and they brought in the Texas Tank **what do y'all think of that nickname for Foreman?** Plus, every team will focus on the run until a Texans QB proves he force a defense back.
2) Brandon Cooks - I've read through Cooks thread and I get the love but I just can't see his numbers going up from last year. He finished with 2 more PPR points than Fitz last year but is twice the cost.
3) DeVante Parker - Going at WR35, I just don't trust him and that offence* enough and there's still solid WR options in that area. WR 33 and 34 are Brandon Marshall and Moncrief. Going after him is Garçon, DJax, Cobb, Maclin, Decker and Meredith.
*This is pre-Tannenhill injury.
1) Leonard Fournette - He's going to be a workhorse. Talent + opportunity. Bortles and the WRs might be perfect if they can be good enough to avoid putting LF in Gurleys situation from last year. But not good enough that they get away from Fournette. Going at the end of round 2, so if I could pair him with DJ or Bell
2) Dalvin Cook - Similar to LF but his potential lack of GL work means he's a 5th round pick. Could be a PPR gem.
3) Larry Fitzgerald - Finished as WR11 in total PPR points last year and has a mid 5th round pick (53). Going off the ADP that ZWK linked in his post.
Avoids:
1) Lamar Miller - Coaches have said they want to lighten his work load and they brought in the Texas Tank **what do y'all think of that nickname for Foreman?** Plus, every team will focus on the run until a Texans QB proves he force a defense back.
2) Brandon Cooks - I've read through Cooks thread and I get the love but I just can't see his numbers going up from last year. He finished with 2 more PPR points than Fitz last year but is twice the cost.
3) DeVante Parker - Going at WR35, I just don't trust him and that offence* enough and there's still solid WR options in that area. WR 33 and 34 are Brandon Marshall and Moncrief. Going after him is Garçon, DJax, Cobb, Maclin, Decker and Meredith.
*This is pre-Tannenhill injury.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I am not high on Manning in general. I think the target split between Beckham and Marshall will not be that great and I think Marshall ends with more TD's, maybe as high as 13 or 14.
The Giants have not had a good WR2 since OBJ has been in the league. It has been Ruben Randle or the rookie Shepard the last three years. Beckham is a very talented WR but its not hard to get a 27% market share with that competition. I think a 25% share is still in order for OBJ, but I think Marshall gets a good 22-24% as well and more TD's. Both are likely to be good in FF, but I think OBJ is being over drafted and Marshall extremely under drafted.
Is his value trending down? Last FFPC ADP info I saw he was going 11th. I mean I see people here have him on their avoid list, which I strongly disagree with, but 11th overall seems like his value is trending up or at worse steady.
He's absolutely not on my avoid list but glad to see him on so many others.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
Haves -
McCaffrey - in ppr this guy looks special, could get 80 catches this year
Crowder - Like him to be the biggest target in Washington, 100 catches possible
Hyde - Most talented back on this team, contract year, all the talk has motivated him to come in in great shape. SF does still suck but he will be the man, 1500 total yard
Avoids -
Lynch - Dude was done 2 years ago, all that time off is not going to help his bad back
M Thomas - don't hate him, his ADP is just too high, value is closer to early - mid 3rd rd to me. He will be their best wr but not by much over Snead
Ajayi - wasn't a believer coming into the year, now the Tannehill injury, I see some major regression here
McCaffrey - in ppr this guy looks special, could get 80 catches this year
Crowder - Like him to be the biggest target in Washington, 100 catches possible
Hyde - Most talented back on this team, contract year, all the talk has motivated him to come in in great shape. SF does still suck but he will be the man, 1500 total yard
Avoids -
Lynch - Dude was done 2 years ago, all that time off is not going to help his bad back
M Thomas - don't hate him, his ADP is just too high, value is closer to early - mid 3rd rd to me. He will be their best wr but not by much over Snead
Ajayi - wasn't a believer coming into the year, now the Tannehill injury, I see some major regression here
Zyphros
Footballguy
I was thinking more in regards to the trades I've seen in that thread of the value he is going for. It's insane. In my FFPC startup he went 1.08 so I guess people aren't necessarily discounting him that much, but I can see the reasons for him to be on the "avoid" until he proves it some more. I'm a fan and an owner of him but 1st round is too rich for my blood.menobrown said:
He showed up on a lot of peoples avoid list so in that respect you are on to something when you say his value is trending down. I had not noticed his value slipping in drafts I'd seen lately so to be honest was a little surprised to see him on so many people's avoid list, I had no idea.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Redraft I assume?
Haves
Terrence West- tremendous value at his adp, rb40 vs woodhead at rb 23
Terrell Pryor- has top15 upside, maybe more with cousins this year, is wr 21 off the board according to ESPN ADP
Martavis Bryant- assuming he is reinstated obv, his adp is wr33, going around pick 80, cheap for a player with huge weekly upside
Avoids
Alshon Jefferey- at wr 11 is too rich for a guy who cant stay healthy, imo
Marshawn Lynch- at his current adp of rb13 (pick 26 overall) , im fading that
Lamar Miller- at rb9 is crazy, not enough TDs
Haves
Terrence West- tremendous value at his adp, rb40 vs woodhead at rb 23
Terrell Pryor- has top15 upside, maybe more with cousins this year, is wr 21 off the board according to ESPN ADP
Martavis Bryant- assuming he is reinstated obv, his adp is wr33, going around pick 80, cheap for a player with huge weekly upside
Avoids
Alshon Jefferey- at wr 11 is too rich for a guy who cant stay healthy, imo
Marshawn Lynch- at his current adp of rb13 (pick 26 overall) , im fading that
Lamar Miller- at rb9 is crazy, not enough TDs
fightingillini
Footballguy
There are two main reasons why some are avoiding Thomas at his ADP
1) He's going to be covered by the #1 corner. Easy to accumulate stats when defenses were gameplanning to take out Cooks.
2) During Brees' tenure in NO, he has NEVER had a WR with more than 130 targets. Only Jimmy Graham has had more and Graham at the time was a special talent. So some believe his upside is pretty much capped and his odds of exceeding his draft slot are low. Snead likely will benefit more from Cooks' departure than Thomas.
That said, he's still a pretty safe bet for 84-90 rec for 1100-1200 yards and 8-9 TDs again.....but I would much rather get him in mid 2nd round and not at the turn which is where he's going in many drafts.
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
ADP is Consensus based on PPR
3 Must Haves
3 Must Haves
- QB: Tyrod Taylor (128, QB19) - Basically a much cheaper version of Dak Prescott. Essentially has the same offense as last season but may have to throw more in tougher games, especially with Miami possibly becoming winnable matchups now.
- RB: DeMarco Murray (18, RB9) - Was an absolute stud last season even while giving carries to Derrick Henry and nothing has changed. Still a great OL and if anything, the passing game should be improved allowing more space for Murray as defenses can't stack the box as much. If that offense improves, has potential to hit 14-15 TD on the ground IMO.
- WR: Ted Ginn (174, WR62) - Classic boom/bust bench fodder but Drew Brees is raving about him. Has potential to put up a Devery Henderson like 45-750-5 type season for a super cheap cost. Put up 44/739/10 and 54/752/4 with Cam Newton as his QB.
- QB: Jameis Winston (80, QB9) - Has weapons around him but Doug Martin is out the first 3 games and has shown a propensity to thrown interceptions (18 last year. For comparison, hated on Blake Bortles threw 16 on 58 more pass attempts). Also isn't much of a scrambler and I think he's being overvalued.
- RB: Joe Mixon (40, RB15) - Has a ton of talent but his value's way too high for an unproven rookie on a team that still has 2 solid RBs in Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. I'm not quite sold that this won't turn into an ugly RBBC situation by year's end, hampering Mixon's fantasy numbers.
- WR: Pierre Garcon (87, WR36) - Just too overvalued for IMO a mediocre player. Took advantage of a year with a team that didn't have much of a running game to compliment Kirk Cousins and is going to San Francisco. Not sold that he'll approach 1,000 yards and think it's more a situational price that's boosting his value.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't agree with point 1. Cooks is not Randy Moss and I firmly don't believe teams game planned as if he was the #1 or he drew constant double teams or anything.
Point two is I'm afraid not accurate. Colston got 143 targets.
I'm glad people are avoiding Thomas because I'm not.
Must have:
1) Ty Montgomery in PPR - amazing receiving ability, even if he doesn't get 15-20 carries a game, he will still be heavily involved on the Packers offense. His floor is flex and upside is solid RB1 in my opinion.
2) Terrelle Pryor at current ADP - Reed is already banged up, and Pryor goes from the Browns to the lethal passing attack of the Redskins. I read something that 27% of Pryor's targets were 'off-target'. Jackson and Garcon are gone.
3) Ameer Abdullah - He's a really good running back on a good offense and can catch the ball really well. The offensive line will be better when Decker is back. Foot injury doesn't seem to be a concern, hopefully he doesn't fumble. RB2 with upside for RB1.
Bonus... Tyrell Williams - It is just so obvious, especially considering what he did last year. WR2 with weekly WR1 upside. SPARQ stats good and he showed it last year.
Must avoid:
1) Spencer Ware - I like him actually, he played well last year even his if ypc dropped towards the end. However at his ADP I like other options - Hunt is a good back and will get involved, probably splitting the workload eventually. He could even take the entire backfield, who knows but watch his tape, he's good and can do everything. Also, Chiefs traded up a few spots to get him.
2) Todd Gurley at ADP - A couple offensive linemen upgrades and McVay as the coach, but I feel like Gurley didn't enough on his own last year. Broke few tackles and his yards before contact was pretty garbage (per Joe Holka of 4for4). "Gurley's '15 season might have been a mirage. Per Football Outsiders, his cumulative Success Rate that year was 41.0 percent, and after adjusting for his offensive line, Gurley would have produced an Expectation Score of 1.01 -- almost exactly average."
3) Dez Bryant at ADP - Not enough targets and tough schedule. Just don't feel comfortable taking him at the end of the second.
Bonus... I want to say Brandin Cooks but I won't. I truly think Brady can come close to 2007-type stats and this Patriots offense as a whole is going to be a goldmine for fantasy at all positions. I'll go with Kevin White. He officially becomes 'bust' after this year.
1) Ty Montgomery in PPR - amazing receiving ability, even if he doesn't get 15-20 carries a game, he will still be heavily involved on the Packers offense. His floor is flex and upside is solid RB1 in my opinion.
2) Terrelle Pryor at current ADP - Reed is already banged up, and Pryor goes from the Browns to the lethal passing attack of the Redskins. I read something that 27% of Pryor's targets were 'off-target'. Jackson and Garcon are gone.
3) Ameer Abdullah - He's a really good running back on a good offense and can catch the ball really well. The offensive line will be better when Decker is back. Foot injury doesn't seem to be a concern, hopefully he doesn't fumble. RB2 with upside for RB1.
Bonus... Tyrell Williams - It is just so obvious, especially considering what he did last year. WR2 with weekly WR1 upside. SPARQ stats good and he showed it last year.
Must avoid:
1) Spencer Ware - I like him actually, he played well last year even his if ypc dropped towards the end. However at his ADP I like other options - Hunt is a good back and will get involved, probably splitting the workload eventually. He could even take the entire backfield, who knows but watch his tape, he's good and can do everything. Also, Chiefs traded up a few spots to get him.
2) Todd Gurley at ADP - A couple offensive linemen upgrades and McVay as the coach, but I feel like Gurley didn't enough on his own last year. Broke few tackles and his yards before contact was pretty garbage (per Joe Holka of 4for4). "Gurley's '15 season might have been a mirage. Per Football Outsiders, his cumulative Success Rate that year was 41.0 percent, and after adjusting for his offensive line, Gurley would have produced an Expectation Score of 1.01 -- almost exactly average."
3) Dez Bryant at ADP - Not enough targets and tough schedule. Just don't feel comfortable taking him at the end of the second.
Bonus... I want to say Brandin Cooks but I won't. I truly think Brady can come close to 2007-type stats and this Patriots offense as a whole is going to be a goldmine for fantasy at all positions. I'll go with Kevin White. He officially becomes 'bust' after this year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Is that Yahoo ADP or Yahoo's semi-"rankings" that aren't really thought through?
In the two main sources for ADP, one has him as QB6 and the other QB7, the latter of which is based on hundreds of drafts (MFL).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
WR36 seems undervalued to me for the top WR in a Shanahan offense that should be playing from behind a lot. He's not a bad talent either, but I guess I could give you "mediocre" if we are addressing it from a relative perspective as compared to other teams' top WR.
Hoyer is a better QB than people think as well. Look what he did for Hopkins and Meredith at his last two stops
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Wants:
crowell- he played well, he's getting talked up this offseason, it seems like something has clicked.
Ebron- health is a concern but I think he puts up a solid season. Has made progress although not fast enough for most people, I think the targets will be there and he will capitalize. Also, as a lions fan with realistic expectations, we may be playing from behind this year.
Blount- say what you want about pumphrey and Smallwood, Blount is the best rb on the team, will get the goal line carries, may get more opportunities as a receiver. I think the other guys will fight each other for opportunities, while Blount carries the load and has one more solid year.
Never:
cobb- I'll take jordy or Adams around their adp but Cobb is too inconsistent to put in your lineup regularly.
Jets- I'm largely avoiding the jets this year. Enunwa as my wr6 maybe....
benjamin- I don't have so much issue with his weight as he's kept it down, but he came onto the scene catching garbage time long balls, and he hasn't shown me that he can win with route running vs size.
crowell- he played well, he's getting talked up this offseason, it seems like something has clicked.
Ebron- health is a concern but I think he puts up a solid season. Has made progress although not fast enough for most people, I think the targets will be there and he will capitalize. Also, as a lions fan with realistic expectations, we may be playing from behind this year.
Blount- say what you want about pumphrey and Smallwood, Blount is the best rb on the team, will get the goal line carries, may get more opportunities as a receiver. I think the other guys will fight each other for opportunities, while Blount carries the load and has one more solid year.
Never:
cobb- I'll take jordy or Adams around their adp but Cobb is too inconsistent to put in your lineup regularly.
Jets- I'm largely avoiding the jets this year. Enunwa as my wr6 maybe....
benjamin- I don't have so much issue with his weight as he's kept it down, but he came onto the scene catching garbage time long balls, and he hasn't shown me that he can win with route running vs size.
I primarily play auction so these are guys I'm willing to pay a premium for, but I've got my limits...
1. Keenan - if we're talking PPR, I must have him. I think he's got a real shot at top 5 numbers. I'm not saying top 5 upside, but top 5 realistic finish. Rivers loves him and he's great at what he does. I expect nothing less than 90 rec.
2. Abdullah - first off, he's only had 1 missed time injury in college + NFL. So I'm not even going to say "if healthy" in here. The main concern is the OL, but I think it'll be better and he's good enough to overcome it if the OL does struggle until Decker returns at LT. I feel like if they give him a chance in the passing game he'll make the coaches forget who Riddick was.
3. Marvin Jones - put up over 1000 yard last year in his 16 games played (counting the playoff game) despite a leg injury and Stafford's finger injury. Second year in the offense will be better. His ADP is what makes him a must have, though. He's so cheap I'll bid 2x his AAV if I have to and would still be happy to land him at that.
Bonus - Jamaal Williams - late round RB with massive upside. Already getting some first team reps due to his superior pass blocking to Montgomery.
My avoids are basically guys I wouldn't even pay 75% of their AAV and might even pass at 50%.
1. Cooks - nothing works on paper... Brady can't hit him deep and the targets aren't going to be plentiful if everyone is healthy. The logic behind his ADP seems to be that BB will find a way to make him a fantasy stud. Sorry, but that's not good enough for me.
2. Mixon - he seems like a good player, but he'll need a massive workload to overcome the low yards per carry that the deficient OL will result in. For this reason I think he'll also struggle near the goal line. I think he's better than Melvin Gordon, but I could see a similar situation to Gordon's rookie year unfolding.
3. McCaffrey - another solid talent in a bad situation. Carolina had the fewest targets to RBs last year and Stewart is a solid veteran RB who still has enough tread on the tires. The OL isn't very impressive, either.
Bonus - Ty Montgomery - I'm not buying the hype. His sample size was too small last year and he still can't keep Rodgers safe.
1. Keenan - if we're talking PPR, I must have him. I think he's got a real shot at top 5 numbers. I'm not saying top 5 upside, but top 5 realistic finish. Rivers loves him and he's great at what he does. I expect nothing less than 90 rec.
2. Abdullah - first off, he's only had 1 missed time injury in college + NFL. So I'm not even going to say "if healthy" in here. The main concern is the OL, but I think it'll be better and he's good enough to overcome it if the OL does struggle until Decker returns at LT. I feel like if they give him a chance in the passing game he'll make the coaches forget who Riddick was.
3. Marvin Jones - put up over 1000 yard last year in his 16 games played (counting the playoff game) despite a leg injury and Stafford's finger injury. Second year in the offense will be better. His ADP is what makes him a must have, though. He's so cheap I'll bid 2x his AAV if I have to and would still be happy to land him at that.
Bonus - Jamaal Williams - late round RB with massive upside. Already getting some first team reps due to his superior pass blocking to Montgomery.
My avoids are basically guys I wouldn't even pay 75% of their AAV and might even pass at 50%.
1. Cooks - nothing works on paper... Brady can't hit him deep and the targets aren't going to be plentiful if everyone is healthy. The logic behind his ADP seems to be that BB will find a way to make him a fantasy stud. Sorry, but that's not good enough for me.
2. Mixon - he seems like a good player, but he'll need a massive workload to overcome the low yards per carry that the deficient OL will result in. For this reason I think he'll also struggle near the goal line. I think he's better than Melvin Gordon, but I could see a similar situation to Gordon's rookie year unfolding.
3. McCaffrey - another solid talent in a bad situation. Carolina had the fewest targets to RBs last year and Stewart is a solid veteran RB who still has enough tread on the tires. The OL isn't very impressive, either.
Bonus - Ty Montgomery - I'm not buying the hype. His sample size was too small last year and he still can't keep Rodgers safe.
Nero
Footballguy
Must Haves
1. Ameer Abdullah - his ADP is RB#20, but I like his chances of cracking the top 12 in PPR leagues.
2. Jeremy Maclin - Baltimore led the league in passing attempts then lost two of their top targets in Steve Smith and Pitta. A very good chance he leads them in targets.
3. Cameron Meredith - Once White went down, he finished WR20 by averages, which was better than Jeffrey. No reason to think he won't be Chicago's top target. WR4 cost for WR2 upside.
Avoid
1. Mike Gillislee - ADP of RB21 and there is no clarity in what his role would be. I personally think Burkhead (RB62) is a better player, so passing on Gillislee is a no brainer for me.
2. Jordan Reed - Even without the concussions, he'd be an injury risk. Now that the surrounding talent has decreased, I'm staying far away.
3. Alshon Jeffery - got outplayed by Meredith last year in his contract year. Is Wentz better than Hoyer? Jordan Matthews was Philly's best last year and he was a WR4. Is Jeffery that much better to be going as WR19. Pass!
1. Ameer Abdullah - his ADP is RB#20, but I like his chances of cracking the top 12 in PPR leagues.
2. Jeremy Maclin - Baltimore led the league in passing attempts then lost two of their top targets in Steve Smith and Pitta. A very good chance he leads them in targets.
3. Cameron Meredith - Once White went down, he finished WR20 by averages, which was better than Jeffrey. No reason to think he won't be Chicago's top target. WR4 cost for WR2 upside.
Avoid
1. Mike Gillislee - ADP of RB21 and there is no clarity in what his role would be. I personally think Burkhead (RB62) is a better player, so passing on Gillislee is a no brainer for me.
2. Jordan Reed - Even without the concussions, he'd be an injury risk. Now that the surrounding talent has decreased, I'm staying far away.
3. Alshon Jeffery - got outplayed by Meredith last year in his contract year. Is Wentz better than Hoyer? Jordan Matthews was Philly's best last year and he was a WR4. Is Jeffery that much better to be going as WR19. Pass!
Stealthycat
Footballguy
must have
QB Dalton - very cheap, gets his stud WR back AND talented Ross AND passcatching RB's in Mixon and Giovani ...... 30 TD's is very real possibility
RB Abdullah - agree with all above, he can be a PPR beast, goal line, hit long runs .... loved him since he was a rookie, this is the year.
WR Pryor - I think Reed is going to miss a LOT of time, I think WAS running game is lacking, I think Cousins is a fine QB and I think Pryor is going to get force fed the football. 150 targets, end zone looks, long balls ..... everything.
avoid
NOS RB's mix a HOF RB in with a solid Ingram and rookie Kamara and a crazy coach that you never know how he's going to use RB's and its a stay away from situation.
NEP RB's I think Patriots will run more than any team in the NFL. I also think every game it will be a different approach - Gillelsee pounding one week, JWhite catching ballls one week, even Burkhead will have a good week. Always different, very hard to predict IMO
JETS Offense nothing good will come of any of it
QB Dalton - very cheap, gets his stud WR back AND talented Ross AND passcatching RB's in Mixon and Giovani ...... 30 TD's is very real possibility
RB Abdullah - agree with all above, he can be a PPR beast, goal line, hit long runs .... loved him since he was a rookie, this is the year.
WR Pryor - I think Reed is going to miss a LOT of time, I think WAS running game is lacking, I think Cousins is a fine QB and I think Pryor is going to get force fed the football. 150 targets, end zone looks, long balls ..... everything.
avoid
NOS RB's mix a HOF RB in with a solid Ingram and rookie Kamara and a crazy coach that you never know how he's going to use RB's and its a stay away from situation.
NEP RB's I think Patriots will run more than any team in the NFL. I also think every game it will be a different approach - Gillelsee pounding one week, JWhite catching ballls one week, even Burkhead will have a good week. Always different, very hard to predict IMO
JETS Offense nothing good will come of any of it
Slider
Footballguy
Must have:
Cooks- don't over think it. Great ability and great QB. Multiple bombs to go with lots of catches.
Keenan Allen- finally puts together another nice season.
AJ Green- top 2 this year. Last year stung.
Tip : trade 2&3 at the end if it's a dynasty.
Avoid:
Zeke- as his QB has his sophomore slump so does he.
Martavis- No thanks
Lynch- nothing but a cash grab.
Cooks- don't over think it. Great ability and great QB. Multiple bombs to go with lots of catches.
Keenan Allen- finally puts together another nice season.
AJ Green- top 2 this year. Last year stung.
Tip : trade 2&3 at the end if it's a dynasty.
Avoid:
Zeke- as his QB has his sophomore slump so does he.
Martavis- No thanks
Lynch- nothing but a cash grab.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Slider
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
Slider
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Slider
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
People would have said the same thing last yr about guys like Baldwin, Adams, Crabtree...
All ended up top 12 in ppr
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