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Anarchy99

2017 ABLC League Thread

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11 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

You are aware TE's = 1 ppr, right?

Sadly, yes - I can't even plead ignorance as an excuse.

I suspect I blundered fairly badly with my 2nd-rounder in relying too heavily on the prior year's draft to assume that I couldn't get a top-8 TE coming back to me at 3.15. But I wasn't going to throw good money after bad by letting the far-and-away BPA left on the board in the 3rd fall past me just because of positional constraints.

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I have not done this league before and never have done a 32-teamer. I am not a fan of my team at this point at all. I like it even less after being unable to find any level of value and taking the Patriot PK. Go Pats all the way to the Super Bowl.

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15 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

I have not done this league before and never have done a 32-teamer. I am not a fan of my team at this point at all. I like it even less after being unable to find any level of value and taking the Patriot PK. Go Pats all the way to the Super Bowl.

Not many people play in 32 team leagues. Most teams aren't going to look great, as that's what happens when there are so many teams. Gostkowski was probably a little earlier, but you will reap the benefits of a having a decent kicker that other teams will not. Realistically, most teams will have 2-3 good players, a handful of decent ones, and the last few will be wishes and prayers. I think there were 108 receivers drafted in this league last year. By the end of the draft, we will all be struggling to find guys worth picking.

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13 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Sadly, yes - I can't even plead ignorance as an excuse.

I suspect I blundered fairly badly with my 2nd-rounder in relying too heavily on the prior year's draft to assume that I couldn't get a top-8 TE coming back to me at 3.15. But I wasn't going to throw good money after bad by letting the far-and-away BPA left on the board in the 3rd fall past me just because of positional constraints.

It does block other teams from having a good TE who can compete with either of your starters and you should get good production out of your flex if they both do well.

Question is what will you get at the other starting spots for this advantage to really work in your favor?

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15 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

It does block other teams from having a good TE who can compete with either of your starters and you should get good production out of your flex if they both do well.

Question is what will you get at the other starting spots for this advantage to really work in your favor?

Ummm ... I've got a rookie WR1. But he's a really highly drafted rookie WR1. :mellow:

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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Corey Davis is really good but he hasn't been healthy enough to really show it yet. Kind of a log jam of competition with the Titans right now who I still expect to run the ball a lot.

I think that was a risky pick but the players talent justifies it in my view. In the short term he hasn't been able to earn much playing time yet so he is off to a slow start.

@Stephen Holloway the good players are basically already gone by now and we still have many picks to do. You aren't going to like your team (or any team) from this draft as all of them will have serious holes, reaches and prayers on them.

I like the format because of how challenging it is. That makes it fun.

I could be wrong and we don't have much history of this league to base evaluations of this on, but my guess is the teams who have solid early picks AND find some productive players with their later picks will distance themselves from the other teams. As with the other Anarchy leagues this requires a good deal of luck in regards to not having players injured or benched. Deep roster diving can give some owners an edge in this format.

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10 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Corey Davis is really good but he hasn't been healthy enough to really show it yet. Kind of a log jam of competition with the Titans right now who I still expect to run the ball a lot.

I think that was a risky pick but the players talent justifies it in my view. In the short term he hasn't been able to earn much playing time yet so he is off to a slow start.

@Stephen Holloway the good players are basically already gone by now and we still have many picks to do. You aren't going to like your team (or any team) from this draft as all of them will have serious holes, reaches and prayers on them.

I like the format because of how challenging it is. That makes it fun.

I could be wrong and we don't have much history of this league to base evaluations of this on, but my guess is the teams who have solid early picks AND find some productive players with their later picks will distance themselves from the other teams. As with the other Anarchy leagues this requires a good deal of luck in regards to not having players injured or benched. Deep roster diving can give some owners an edge in this format.

This is the same for any fantasy league and it applies even more in larger leagues because the big hits later MATTER EVEN MORE.

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10 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I could be wrong and we don't have much history of this league to base evaluations of this on, but my guess is the teams who have solid early picks AND find some productive players with their later picks will distance themselves from the other teams. As with the other Anarchy leagues this requires a good deal of luck in regards to not having players injured or benched. Deep roster diving can give some owners an edge in this format.

I went back to review my title team from last year and was surprised at how generally mediocre they were. I thought I'd see a bunch of guys who well-outperformed their ADPs, but my top pick (AJ Green) finished WR38 due to injury and seven of my other picks either failed to exceed their ADP or did so by a negligible amount.

Out of 10 picks, I hit two home runs - ATL TMQB (drafted QB23, finished QB2) and Pitta (TE47 as replacement pick, finished TE8) - and I didn't have any complete busts (my lowest-scoring player was Green-Beckham with 87 points). And yet that was enough to take home the championship.

If I had to guess, I'd say avoiding zeroes is more important for keeping yourself out of the bottom third of the standings, but hitting those two home runs is more important for your title hopes. (... says the 2017 Jordan Reed and Corey Davis owner, optimistically.)

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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dont underestimate the power of thatAtlanta QB late in the draft. I take Atlanta over Oakland in the 2nd and I run away with this last year. That was a 6thround pick in the end and allowed you better stuff early. If I could have waited to round 6 and got PK in 8th and something in second. Wowsers. But maybe I overestimate how others see QB and this draft has been no different. I think, Yuck and game over with any of three sets and yet guys are letting them go on. 

Last year my 4th round pick of Torrey did me in. Charles ajohnson in 8th and Hooper did not help much in 10th but still top 7 placement and I got Howard in 7th as one of those picks that can move you up quickly. Carr did not kill me even though his injury hurt a lot down the stretch. 

 

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I started typing a post a while ago about how you need to average around 180 points per roster spot to have a shot....the 530 points ATL QB put up last year can help cover up a ton of warts and make up those lost points under the 180 mark.....that 530 was 55 points higher than the next highest NE and 188 points higher than TMQB16....so serious value there at QB23 and league winning type stuff...

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I'm pretty happy with this start from the 2 hole........first time doing a 32-teamer.

QB - Chiefs

RB - Johnson, David

WR - Sanders

WR - Diggs

TE - Witten

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12 hours ago, Ruffrodys05 said:

I'm pretty happy with this start from the 2 hole........first time doing a 32-teamer.

QB - Chiefs

RB - Johnson, David

WR - Sanders

WR - Diggs

TE - Witten

I don't mind this team at all. Almost makes me wish I waited and went QB-Fleener on 4-5 turn and kept my Bell thought but those 550 pts stared me in the face. Issue was at 2-3 turn, I did not like any wr or Rb and why the Ertz pick. Did not like spot 1 at all. Plus a Packer homer

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15 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I started typing a post a while ago about how you need to average around 180 points per roster spot to have a shot....the 530 points ATL QB put up last year can help cover up a ton of warts and make up those lost points under the 180 mark.....that 530 was 55 points higher than the next highest NE and 188 points higher than TMQB16....so serious value there at QB23 and league winning type stuff...

Fair enough. I was looking primarily at rank of finish but re-evaluating it, if I take the TMQB drafted either before me (Titans, 342 pts) or after me (Texans, 250 pts) I lose a minimum of 180 points and I'm not even sniffing contention.

So I should rephrase it to say you can win this league by avoiding zeroes and hitting just 2 HRs in 10 picks, as long as one of those two is a colossal Stanton-esque grand slam. :)

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So I actually made a live draft pick for once.

I considered several different options but the RB position really needed to be addressed. For me this decision came down to Samajae Perine or D'Onta Foreman. I went with Foreman even though he is not known to catch the ball. 

The Texans more likely to make the playoffs I think than Washington. I consider them to be very close to the same talent but have Foreman slightly ahead of Perine due to speed although I think Perine might do some of the little things better. Not according to reports recently though that do make me worry about Perine.

I drafted Foreman later than Perine in league six just because I thought I could get away with it, and did. I have Foreman ranked higher than Perine though.

 

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23 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Man I didnt realize defenses could actually score negative points in this league and CLE actually finished the season with -1 point...

Guess you got your Def already!!!

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10 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Man I didnt realize defenses could actually score negative points in this league and CLE actually finished the season with -1 point...

Haven't quite figured out the love for kickers and lack of love for defenses in this league. Defenses infinitely more valuable because you are stuck with a poor defense. If you guess wrong in a camp kicker battle, you can always swap out to the kicker that won out. 

It's possible that you could pick a playoff defense and LOSE points because of it. 

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On 8/20/2017 at 10:06 AM, Anarchy99 said:

Haven't quite figured out the love for kickers and lack of love for defenses in this league. Defenses infinitely more valuable because you are stuck with a poor defense. If you guess wrong in a camp kicker battle, you can always swap out to the kicker that won out. 

It's possible that you could pick a playoff defense and LOSE points because of it. 

I think I my have in A2. At least Steve thinks so. 

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Freeann,  I want to know if my pick of Phila RB Pumphrey influenced your pick of of Smallwood. Or are we both just smart enough to know one of them is going to win that spot.

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23 minutes ago, There it is said:

Freeann,  I want to know if my pick of Phila RB Pumphrey influenced your pick of of Smallwood. Or are we both just smart enough to know one of them is going to win that spot.

It's been all over today that Smallwood is the current favorite to be the lead back and Blount has been bloated and floundering. I would have taken Smallwood one pick later.

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Smallwood was going to be my pick...news came out too soon :(

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Pick	Ovr	Franchise	Selection
1.26	26	BusMan	Howard, Jordan CHI RB
2.07	39	BusMan	Allen, Keenan LAC WR
3.26	90	BusMan	Anderson, C.J. DEN RB
4.07	103	BusMan	Brown, John ARI WR
5.26	154	BusMan	Engram, Evan NYG TE
6.07	167	BusMan	Rodgers, Jacquizz TBB RB
7.26	218	BusMan	Boswell, Chris PIT PK
8.07	231	BusMan	Lee, Marqise JAC WR
9.26	282	BusMan	Jets, New York NYJ Def
10.07	295	BusMan	Bears, Chicago CHI TMQB

Very little in the way of playoff potential with this group, so I need to make serious hay in the regular season. Waited until my last two picks to grab a DEF and QB, since I knew those positions were mandated to still be available by the league rules. I now see that is likely a huge error.

Figured RB would be the first position to dry up and went Howard in the first, despite being on a bad team. Overall I like my RB/WR positions, provided John Brown returns to the field sooner rather than later. Engram is a dart throw at TE.

This smells like a middle of the pack squad at best. Fun times would draft again.

Edited by BusMan
now not know

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1.15	15	Mr. Irrelevant	McCoy, LeSean BUF RB - RB6
2.18	50	Mr. Irrelevant	Olsen, Greg CAR TE - TE4
3.15	79	Mr. Irrelevant	Reed, Jordan WAS TE - TE7
4.18	114	Mr. Irrelevant	Davis, Corey TEN WR - WR48
5.15	143	Mr. Irrelevant	Lockett, Tyler SEA WR - WR59
6.18	178	Mr. Irrelevant	Murray, Latavius MIN RB - RB52
7.15	207	Mr. Irrelevant	49ers, San Francisco SFO TMQB - TMQB28
8.18	242	Mr. Irrelevant	Hauschka, Steven BUF PK - PK20
9.15	271	Mr. Irrelevant	Colts, Indianapolis IND Def - Def26
10.18	306	Mr. Irrelevant	Samuel, Curtis CAR WR - WR102

For better or worse, the fate of my draft was decided way back in the 3rd round when I stepped up to stop Reed's freefall (into the equivalent of the mid-7th round) and tied up my flex position in the process. McCoy and Olsen were high-floor picks for their draft slots so, had I passed on Reed for a name like Woodhead or Ware, I could have continued with my plan of focusing on solid but unspectacular names until the later rounds. 

Instead, I decided to go full Doc Brown with my pass-catchers:

Quote

"Well, I figured ... what the hell."

Each of my three WRs are very special talents on teams with significant playoff potential ... and gigantic health / usage-related question marks. If one of the three becomes a fantasy stud, I'm likely to break even on my overall investment. If two do, I have a shot at contending.

Murray is a bet against the rookie RB I'm lowest on of the four in redraft (mediocre athlete, defensive-minded coach, abysmal OL). He should be a fair bet to outperform ADP even if his ceiling is capped. Ditto Hoyer, who should be a perfectly serviceable placeholder on a team that, having tossed Chip Kelly overboard, should get better faster than people expect. 

The Colts play the second-softest offensive slate of opponents in the league. They even have playoff potential in the raging dumpster fire that is the AFC South although, to David's point above, that isn't necessarily a fringe benefit in this format.

My team isn't terrible, but upon further review I don't see where I'm going to bank the 1,900 or so points it will take to repeat. Obviously Shady and Reed both need to play a full 16 or close to it, but even then I'll need a big breakout from one of my WR or significant outperformance from two to be in the mix.

Good luck to all this season. :suds:

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

1.15	15	Mr. Irrelevant	McCoy, LeSean BUF RB - RB6
2.18	50	Mr. Irrelevant	Olsen, Greg CAR TE - TE4
3.15	79	Mr. Irrelevant	Reed, Jordan WAS TE - TE7
4.18	114	Mr. Irrelevant	Davis, Corey TEN WR - WR48
5.15	143	Mr. Irrelevant	Lockett, Tyler SEA WR - WR59
6.18	178	Mr. Irrelevant	Murray, Latavius MIN RB - RB52
7.15	207	Mr. Irrelevant	49ers, San Francisco SFO TMQB - TMQB28
8.18	242	Mr. Irrelevant	Hauschka, Steven BUF PK - PK20
9.15	271	Mr. Irrelevant	Colts, Indianapolis IND Def - Def26
10.18	306	Mr. Irrelevant	Samuel, Curtis CAR WR - WR102

Murray is a bet against the rookie RB I'm lowest on of the four in redraft (mediocre athlete, defensive-minded coach, abysmal OL). He should be a fair bet to outperform ADP even if his ceiling is capped. Ditto Hoyer, who should be a perfectly serviceable placeholder on a team that, having tossed Chip Kelly overboard, should get better faster than people expect. 

So you are against Cook because of combine metrics?

A defensive minded coach is generally a good thing for a RB to have, game scripts tend to be more favorable if the defense is good.

The offensive line might only suck instead of being abyss level.

Wouldn't points two and three also negatively impact the back up RB you drafted? To me that negates those arguments and all you are left with is hating Cook for his combine scores.

Bad bet. I like the rest of your draft a bit better than this part of it. You need to hope Murray gets goal line carries because he isn't going to be doing much else. Zimmer and Shurmur have both said Cook is capable of all roles. Goal line opportunity for Murray is just pure speculation, not based on anything the coaches have said.

Edited by Biabreakable

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3 hours ago, BusMan said:

Pick	Ovr	Franchise	Selection
1.26	26	BusMan	Howard, Jordan CHI RB
2.07	39	BusMan	Allen, Keenan LAC WR
3.26	90	BusMan	Anderson, C.J. DEN RB
4.07	103	BusMan	Brown, John ARI WR
5.26	154	BusMan	Engram, Evan NYG TE
6.07	167	BusMan	Rodgers, Jacquizz TBB RB
7.26	218	BusMan	Boswell, Chris PIT PK
8.07	231	BusMan	Lee, Marqise JAC WR
9.26	282	BusMan	Jets, New York NYJ Def
10.07	295	BusMan	Bears, Chicago CHI TMQB

Very little in the way of playoff potential with this group, so I need to make serious hay in the regular season. Waited until my last two picks to grab a DEF and QB, since I knew those positions were mandated to still be available by the league rules. I know see that is likely a huge error.

Figured RB would be the first position to dry up and went Howard in the first, despite being on a bad team. Overall I like my RB/WR positions, provided John Brown returns to the field sooner rather than later. Engram is a dart throw at TE.

This smells like a middle of the pack squad at best. Fun times would draft again.

I like how this team looks and your strategy of waiting on defense and QB helps that I think. Question is if those RB and WR can make enough of a difference to make up for the points your not getting from QB. That said the Bears may not be bad as Trubisky has looked decent. They will surely be behind a lot and need to throw.

John Brown makes me nervous, but he can be great if healthy enough to play. I had him in 2015 but not last year. He did good things for me in 2015.

Rodgers needs to put up some good numbers while Doug is out as I expect all the Bucs RB to take a back seat to him once he does.

Maybe Chad Henne can be an improvement for Jacksonville. 

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1.28    28.    Biabreakable    Saints, New Orleans NOS TMQB
2.05    37.    Biabreakable    Watkins, Sammy LAR WR    
3.28    92.    Biabreakable    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    
4.05    101.    Biabreakable    Henry, Hunter LAC TE    
5.28    156.    Biabreakable    Foreman, D'Onta HOU RB        
6.05    165.    Biabreakable    Crosby, Mason GBP PK    
7.28    220.    Biabreakable    Kamara, Alvin NOS RB    
8.05    229.    Biabreakable    Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR    
9.28    284.    Biabreakable    Boyd, Tyler CIN WR    
10.05    293.    Biabreakable    Redskins, Washington WAS Def

While it wasn't intentional on my part my picks of Watkins and Parker had their fates change soon after my drafting of them.Watkins being traded to the Rams and the Dolpins adding Jay Cutler. i tend to think both acts of god will work in my favor, at least thats what she told me.

Foreman is a player I really like and I think the Texans have a good shot of making the playoffs. Kamara is a player I am not particularly high on for this season, but the PPR scoring helps him a bit compared to standard I think.

Treadwell and Boyd both forgotten players it seems. Perhaps deservedly so, but I think Treadwell actually does some things this year, and Boyd actually did pretty well for a rookie yet no one cares.

Not sure how well Washington will do on defense. I hope they are not the second worst unit.

Drew Brees gives me a lot of cushion.

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Waiting on a defense is a decent strategy in the other Anarchy Leagues as it probably won't hurt that much. In this one, however, it could be a team killer if you get stuck with a really dreg of a defense. At least in the other leagues, you are guaranteed positive points. The difference from the #1 to #2 defense in those leagues was 118 points last year. In ABLC, that range was 174 points in 2016 and 233 the year before. The 3 prior years were 187, 227, and 212.

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Stinkin Ref 2016.....18 hole

Chiefs, Kansas City KCC TMQB    308.56    
Jennings, Rashad NYG RB    142.70    
Woodhead, Danny SDC RB (Q)    27.10    
Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR (Q)    155.80    
Pryor, Terrelle CLE WR (Q)    213.44    
Watkins, Sammy BUF WR (Q)    83.00    
Williams, Tyrell SDC WR    216.90    
Higbee, Tyler RAM TE    25.50    
Folk, Nick NYJ PK    113.20    
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def 103.00

I actually liked this team a lot heading into last year...but finished 25th..and just over 500 points behind Mr. I.....had Woodhead not got hurt in week 2 and Watkins just post some kind of  decent number and Marshall lived up to his 2015 numbers.....yada yada yada....I could have been on to something as I had a couple nice hits with Pryor and Williams...Higbee obviously drug this team down as well....so looking back, what did I learn...well you gotta stay healthy, mostly....but you also need some point coverage....KCTMQB you would have thought had a decent year with an extra game and all, but still finished as QB21....I drafted them as QB18...so sniffing distance....but Mr I dusted me by over 220 points at the position by taking ATLQB at QB23....which is more than any one player on my team scored....so it was almost like he had an extra player compared to me....and a really good one at that....he won with averaging about 189 points for every roster spot...GB and ATL SMOKED every other TMQB outside of NE and that wouldn't have been close had NE not made the post season....so Mr. I maybe hit the longest ROI HR in the history of fantasy football (at least in a league like this).....that pick in and of itself, covered any warts he had on his roster....don't get me wrong, he had a nice overall draft, but that pick was a league changer.....so I think you need a little of that too...

 

STINKIN' REF 2017....22 hole

1-Falcons, Atlanta ATL TMQB

9-Henderson, De'Angelo DEN RB  
7-Lewis, Dion NEP RB   
3-Woodhead, Danny BAL RB


4-Garcon, Pierre SFO WR    
6-Golladay, Kenny DET WR    
2-Pryor, Terrelle WAS WR

5-Fiedorowicz, C.J. HOU TE 


10-Gonzalez, Zane CLE PK   
8-Raiders, Oakland OAK Def

so decided I wanted to chase some of those 500 points even though I wouldn't get nearly the value that ATLQB provided last year...will need the 500 and some playoff games ...figured it was a decent place to start and then just see what I could piece together...initial plan did not include 3 RB's...Bass talked me in to taking Lewis, sorry brother....and Henderson was my late hope for a 3 run homer...not very eye popping at WR, but Garcon is probably a little underrated....drank the kool aid on Golladay and hoping he turns into this years Pryor or Williams...might have the most unsexy TE in the league but he should finish middle of the pack....don't think OK D is really that good, but people have them plugged in for the playoffs (personally I don't think they make it)....and should at least get some sacks and with Patterson returning kicks, maybe he houses a couple...have no idea if Gonzalez wins the job in CLE so my "move" may be wasted here....I know there was some discussion about taking PK's in this league and I'm not sure where I stand on that....yeah you can wait until your last pick and take a guy (like I did) and then replace him with your "move" if you drafted wrong....but it also kind of sucks to have to use your "move" on a PK instead of a week 1 breakout guy that could help you elsewhere or cover an injury or something to a another position...and kickers don't usually get hurt....good luck, always enjoy this format.....:banned:

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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26 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Waiting on a defense is a decent strategy in the other Anarchy Leagues as it probably won't hurt that much. In this one, however, it could be a team killer if you get stuck with a really dreg of a defense. At least in the other leagues, you are guaranteed positive points. The difference from the #1 to #2 defense in those leagues was 118 points last year. In ABLC, that range was 174 points in 2016 and 233 the year before. The 3 prior years were 187, 227, and 212.

Yeah I guess we shall see just how bad Washington can be.

I likely could have addressed this sooner and I was looking at Tampa Bay who I think I could have taken over Treadwell or Boyd where I did. Possible those two WR or someone else suitable could have been that pick instead if I did draft the Bucs defense earlier.

I guess we will have to see how that turns out. Washington had 64 poins and was 27th overall last year. Their defense was very bad. I suppose it is possible they are worse than that this year. A lot of us seem to think so based on the draft results.

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46 - Steelers PIT TMQB8 . . . Ranked 5th in 2016
PIT offense should be more explosive once Bryant gets reinstated and should be in line for playoff points. IMO, Top 5 with upside this year.

83 - Mark Ingram NOS RB22 . . . Ranked 9th in 2016
I am not sure how much ADP has left in the tank, if he can stay healthy, and what that means to Ingram's role. Not many reliable RB's were left by this point.

275 - Charles Sims TBB RB67 . . . Ranked RB21 in 2015
Sims appears to have fallen off the radar and I am not 100% sure why. He had 180 points in his format two years ago with over 1,000 YFS and 50+ catches.

19 - T.Y. Hilton IND WR10 . . .  Ranked WR9 in 2016
Well, at the time, Luck seemingly was looking ready to come back, I thought the Colts had an outside shot at a playoff berth, and Hilton looked like a safe pick. Now, not so much.

110 - Eric Decker TEN WR45 . . . Ranked WR16 in 2015
I still think Decker gets more targets, yardage, and usage than he is getting projected for. Might get a playoff game or two as well. Could end up ranked in the 20's.

211 - Anquan Boldin BUF WR72 . . . Ranked WR47 in 2016
He looked liked a decent pick . . . before he retired. Was in line to start and get a lot of targets. Better now then mid-season as I can replace him.

238 - Terrance Williams DAL WR79 . . . Ranked WR61 in 2016
He ranked in the 40's the year before. Probably will get a few playoff points. If Zeke actually has to sit out, maybe there are a few more receiving points to go around.

302 - Tyler Higbee LAR TE37 . . . Ranked TE65 in 2016
Went as early as 142, 159, and 172 in the regular Anarchy drafts. Getting talked up as the west coast Jordan Reed. Great, so he'll miss a ton of games. Just what I needed.

174 - Matt Bryant ATL PK4 . . . Ranked PK1 in 2016
The Falcons might not score 648 points again this year (that is a CRAZY number), but Bryant should still get a lot of scoring opportunities.

147 - Seahawks SEA DEF2 . . . Ranked DEF9 in 2016
Probably too early, as they only scored 138 points last year. But they scored 214, 220, 279, and 217 the years before that. Maybe they bounce back some this year and again should make a playoff run.

Overall, I think I have pieces of 6 playoff teams (PIT, TBB, TEN, DAL, ATL, SEA). Will have to find a flex in the player swap. Would have been much more of an issue if I had waited and got a camp battle kicker that lost his job. Don't love this team, don't hate this team. Will stand a chance of competing if ADP is a dud, Sims goes back to being a receiving back, and Higbee gets a lot of targets.

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8 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

46 - Steelers PIT TMQB8 . . . Ranked 5th in 2016
PIT offense should be more explosive once Bryant gets reinstated and should be in line for playoff points. IMO, Top 5 with upside this year.

83 - Mark Ingram NOS RB22 . . . Ranked 9th in 2016
I am not sure how much ADP has left in the tank, if he can stay healthy, and what that means to Ingram's role. Not many reliable RB's were left by this point.

275 - Charles Sims TBB RB67 . . . Ranked RB21 in 2015
Sims appears to have fallen off the radar and I am not 100% sure why. He had 180 points in his format two years ago with over 1,000 YFS and 50+ catches.

19 - T.Y. Hilton IND WR10 . . .  Ranked WR9 in 2016
Well, at the time, Luck seemingly was looking ready to come back, I thought the Colts had an outside shot at a playoff berth, and Hilton looked like a safe pick. Now, not so much.

110 - Eric Decker TEN WR45 . . . Ranked WR16 in 2015
I still think Decker gets more targets, yardage, and usage than he is getting projected for. Might get a playoff game or two as well. Could end up ranked in the 20's.

211 - Anquan Boldin BUF WR72 . . . Ranked WR47 in 2016
He looked liked a decent pick . . . before he retired. Was in line to start and get a lot of targets. Better now then mid-season as I can replace him.

238 - Terrance Williams DAL WR79 . . . Ranked WR61 in 2016
He ranked in the 40's the year before. Probably will get a few playoff points. If Zeke actually has to sit out, maybe there are a few more receiving points to go around.

302 - Tyler Higbee LAR TE37 . . . Ranked TE65 in 2016
Went as early as 142, 159, and 172 in the regular Anarchy drafts. Getting talked up as the west coast Jordan Reed. Great, so he'll miss a ton of games. Just what I needed.

174 - Matt Bryant ATL PK4 . . . Ranked PK1 in 2016
The Falcons might not score 648 points again this year (that is a CRAZY number), but Bryant should still get a lot of scoring opportunities.

147 - Seahawks SEA DEF2 . . . Ranked DEF9 in 2016
Probably too early, as they only scored 138 points last year. But they scored 214, 220, 279, and 217 the years before that. Maybe they bounce back some this year and again should make a playoff run.

Overall, I think I have pieces of 6 playoff teams (PIT, TBB, TEN, DAL, ATL, SEA). Will have to find a flex in the player swap. Would have been much more of an issue if I had waited and got a camp battle kicker that lost his job. Don't love this team, don't hate this team. Will stand a chance of competing if ADP is a dud, Sims goes back to being a receiving back, and Higbee gets a lot of targets.

Charles SIms is an interesting player and did score some good points in 2015 as you mention. I think Martin and Rodgers may prevent Sims from having much opportunity but I generally think Sims is a better bet than McNichols but maybe not. Similar players in my view.

Tough break with Boldin. Seemed like a brilliant move to me at the time, wished I had taken him. Oops.

Who has been talking about Higbee as west coast Jordan Reed? I am pretty sure Gerald Everett deserves that comparison a bit more than Higbee does, but who knows? Cooper Kupp may make both not very good choices.

I think you have a solid kicker and defense and the QB should be good as well. Otherwise you have Hilton which should be good if Luck is back soon, not so good if not.

I dunno about this squad. Good luck.

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10 minutes ago, Crippler said:

So far for flex

 

11 RB, 8 WR, 3 TE with 10 undecided 

I am surprised with more picks at RB than WR. 

Late round WR seems like where the value is to me. RB were already very picked over before teams added a 3rd guy.

I suppose getting in there before the week one picks ups?

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49 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

So you are against Cook because of combine metrics?

A defensive minded coach is generally a good thing for a RB to have, game scripts tend to be more favorable if the defense is good.

The offensive line might only suck instead of being abyss level.

Wouldn't points two and three also negatively impact the back up RB you drafted? To me that negates those arguments and all you are left with is hating Cook for his combine scores.

Bad bet. I like the rest of your draft a bit better than this part of it. You need to hope Murray gets goal line carries because he isn't going to be doing much else. Zimmer and Shurmur have both said Cook is capable of all roles. Goal line opportunity for Murray is just pure speculation, not based on anything the coaches have said.

Ha! I had a private bet with myself on the O/U of posts before you jumped in on Cook at 2.5. I oughta be a bookie :lol:

I know you're big on Cook and I don't hate him - I don't hate any of the four from a long-term perspective and in my only keeper league I'll draft whichever fall(s) to me - but I think he's being overdrafted relative to his situation in redraft. Yes, his measurables have something to do with that assessment, as does the quality of the OL (which will have a larger negative impact on a back like Cook, who needs space to operate, than on a straight-ahead guy like Murray).

The 'favorable game script' argument is overblown; David and others have posted studies concluding that more valuable fantasy RBs tend to correlate pretty well with higher-scoring offenses. I don't believe Minnesota is going to be in many 35-31 games this year.

Ultimately, I think Murray has more talent than many other presumptive backups. Perhaps - in fact probably - not as much as Cook; but if you're going to take the other side of a bet, history has shown you can do worse than betting against a rookie.

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Who has been talking about Higbee as west coast Jordan Reed? I am pretty sure Gerald Everett deserves that comparison a bit more than Higbee does, but who knows?

A saw a couple of articles where Reed was brought up . . . mostly due to the Sean McVay / Matt LeFleur Redskins connection. He's 6'6", 250. Has been said to been uncoverable in the red zone, a standout in camp, and playing with the starters. Saw comments from the coaching staff saying he would play a big role this year / on the field a lot / blah blah blah. Probably just coach speak, but it sounds like he will start the season as the TE getting the most snaps. I don't think he will be Reed, but I am hopeful he is worth more than the TE37 spot I picked him at.

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I've been hearing these overdraftred arguments a lot recently.

I have almost completely ignored ADP this year so such arguments don't really make much sense to me.

The player is going to be worth what they are worth. Thats it. How good our guesses are in regards to that doesn't really change because of what everyone else thinks (ADP).

As a Vikings fan I hope Murray ends up being worth drafting. As a Vikings fan, I don't think Murray was worth drafting. Hows that? :P

Total points as correlated with rushing TDs makes a lot of sense I think. The game script argument not really applicable to RB who are good receivers anyways. It is the guys like Peterson and Morris that get killed by bad defense and being behind in the score, not guys who can catch the ball.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

A saw a couple of articles where Reed was brought up . . . mostly due to the Sean McVay / Matt LeFleur Redskins connection. He's 6'6", 250. Has been said to been uncoverable in the red zone, a standout in camp, and playing with the starters. Saw comments from the coaching staff saying he would play a big role this year / on the field a lot / blah blah blah. Probably just coach speak, but it sounds like he will start the season as the TE getting the most snaps. I don't think he will be Reed, but I am hopeful he is worth more than the TE37 spot I picked him at.

I see.

If that is the case then Everett will be a wasted pick, although he likely already was because rookie and TE do not go well together most of the time.

I haven't spent much time reading about the Rams in years. Although it is likely more tolerable now that the coaches have changed.

If Higbee was all that though... why did they use their first pick on Everett?

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

I see.

If that is the case then Everett will be a wasted pick, although he likely already was because rookie and TE do not go well together most of the time.

I haven't spent much time reading about the Rams in years. Although it is likely more tolerable now that the coaches have changed.

If Higbee was all that though... why did they use their first pick on Everett?

It sounds like they want to implement a two TE system and Everett (like 99% of rookies) has been just trying to get acclimated to the NFL. IIRC, he went to a small school (South Alabama?) and apparently sometimes the learning curve is tougher coming from those types of programs. I would guess Higbee has done better than they expected and is a lot harder to cover than they were prepared for. And I think Everett hasn't exactly absorbed the offense and what they want him to do so far. For now, I don't think either one is very proficient at blocking. As far as my selection of Higbee goes, if he is half of Reed for just this year, I would be happy based on getting him 300+ picks in to the draft.

It sounds like Higbee will start the season getting more reps. Whether he does anything with them, whether they try to get him the ball, and whether they start using Everett more are all unknowns past Week 1.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

1.28    28.    Biabreakable    Saints, New Orleans NOS TMQB
2.05    37.    Biabreakable    Watkins, Sammy LAR WR    
3.28    92.    Biabreakable    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    
4.05    101.    Biabreakable    Henry, Hunter LAC TE    
5.28    156.    Biabreakable    Foreman, D'Onta HOU RB        
6.05    165.    Biabreakable    Crosby, Mason GBP PK    
7.28    220.    Biabreakable    Kamara, Alvin NOS RB    
8.05    229.    Biabreakable    Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR    
9.28    284.    Biabreakable    Boyd, Tyler CIN WR    
10.05    293.    Biabreakable    Redskins, Washington WAS Def

Probably my favorite team of those posted so far. Brees gives you a solid floor almost all by himself and each of your next three picks have genuine stud upside, especially Henry, who I want all the shares of this season.

Second-year post-hype sleepers are some of my favorite picks in these formats and both Treadwell and Boyd were stupid value where you snagged them. Kamara and Foreman are a good pairing in this format, kind of like my WRs - if you hit one on one of the two you're probably ahead on your draft capital invested.

Not a huge amount of playoff potential and that might be what ultimately brings you up short, but IMO you did great work here.

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1.16 16.There It IsThomas, Michael NOS WR

 

2.17 49.There It IsJeffery, Alshon PHI WR

 

3.16 80.There It IsRudolph, Kyle MIN TE

 

4.17 113.There It IsGore, Frank IND RB

 

5.16 144.There It IsSanu, Mohamed ATL WR

 

6.17 177.There It IsDolphins, Miami MIA TMQB 7

 

7.16 208.There It IsSturgis, Caleb PHI PK

 

8.17 241.There It IsChargers, Los Angeles LAC Def

 

9.16 272.There It IsPumphrey, Donnel PHI RBMon 

 

10.17 305.There It IsSmith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WRWed 

I finally tried the WR PRR approach first. This is what was left  I took highest points first.

Until Gore. I believe he will be consistent in this... his HOF bid year.

Comments.

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Probably my favorite team of those posted so far. Brees gives you a solid floor almost all by himself and each of your next three picks have genuine stud upside, especially Henry, who I want all the shares of this season.

Second-year post-hype sleepers are some of my favorite picks in these formats and both Treadwell and Boyd were stupid value where you snagged them. Kamara and Foreman are a good pairing in this format, kind of like my WRs - if you hit one on one of the two you're probably ahead on your draft capital invested.

Not a huge amount of playoff potential and that might be what ultimately brings you up short, but IMO you did great work here.

LOL. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Not a huge fan of Watkins, Parker, Hunter, Foreman, Kamara, Treadwell, or Boyd and think waiting so long on a defense was a mistake. IMO, Watkins always an injury risk and went to an offense even worse than BUF, Parker has been more hype than production, Gates still a way bigger piece of the TE pie for LAC, Foreman to me is just a back up (so not worth more than other back ups), who knows what role Kamara will serve and the Saints have multiple backs, Treadwell in the mix but not a starter in MIN, Boyd the WR4 on a team with a top TE.

All that shows is that Bia picked different players than I would, and my tea leaves point in a different direction than his tea leaves. The other thing that I would say for this team is there were little track record to go on in terms of player performance. In short, not many guys have produced in the past to be able to have certain performance expectations (other than Brees).

But that's what makes these leagues fun and interesting. Trying to crack the code and come up with a total scoring solution better than the next guy.

 

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I like Anarchy's analysis format, so I'll steal it.  Got a few playoff guys here, so think it's a decent team, though unlikely a great one.

219 - LA Rams TMQB29 . . . Ranked TMBQ32 in 2016

Waited late for a QB, and think that the Rams passing situation shows more upside than the others that were left (Chi, Cle, NYJ), given the coaching and the new receivers.

91 - Duke Johnson CLE RB29 . . . Ranked RB31 in 2016

With the reception volume potential, seemed a reasonable pick after I went WR/WR first two rounds.

102 - Terrence West BAL RB31 . . .  Ranked RB24 in 2016

Liked him being there when I took him, not so much later when I saw Buck Allen run better than him with the first teamers in the second preseason game.  Thought about stacking Allen as my flex, but think that’s more of playing for 5th than for 1st strategy.

27 - Michael Crabtree OAK WR14 . . . Ranked WR13 in 2016

Is becoming the healthier of the Oakland WRs, and has playoff potential.

38 - Tyreek Hill KCC WR17  . . .  Ranked WR25 in 2016

Decided to buy into the hype, and the Alex Smith downfield hope, given the playoff potential.

230 - Chris Hogan NEP WR75 . . . Ranked WR37 in 2016

I understand the drop due to the Cooks hype and Gronk’s return, but with the January games he seemed like a no-brainer WR3 at this point, and well worth kicking the kicker can down for road for.

283 - Kendell Wright CHI WR93 . . .  Ranked WR83 in 2016

I went in thinking that, having the 6th free agent pick, I’d take flex last, but the five teams after me had taken a kicker already, so no use waiting on a flex.  Considered Boyd here, but I had just grabbed him at the end of a deep auction the day before.  Dodds seems quite high on Wright, likely because of the playing opportunity and weak TE situation with the Bears.

155 - Cameron Brate TBB TE25 . . . Ranked TE8 in 2016

It looks like people are slowly realizing that Howard will not be an immediate impact player in fantasy, but are sleeping somewhat on what that means for Brate.  The rookie TE are going too high, meaning there is value to be had in waiting for guys like Cook, Clay, and Brate.

166 - Broncos DEN DEF3 . . .  Ranked DEF4 in 2016

Add me to those surprised defenses went so late, particularly as compared to past years. Knowing that, I might have gone QB earlier and waited on a defense.

294 - Connor Barth CHI PK31 . .   Ranked PK29 in 2016

Seems likely to hold off Aguayo, but if not I’ll be able to grab a replacement.

Edited by Go DC Yourself

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59 minutes ago, Go DC Yourself said:

I like Anarchy's analysis format, so I'll steal it.  Got a few playoff guys here, so think it's a decent team, though unlikely a great one.

219 - LA Rams TMQB29 . . . Ranked TMBQ32 in 2016

Waited late for a QB, and think that the Rams passing situation shows more upside than the others that were left (Chi, Cle, NYJ), given the coaching and the new receivers.

91 - Duke Johnson CLE RB29 . . . Ranked RB31 in 2016

With the reception volume potential, seemed a reasonable pick after I went WR/WR first two rounds.

102 - Terrence West BAL RB31 . . .  Ranked RB24 in 2016

Liked him being there when I took him, not so much later when I saw Buck Allen run better than him with the first teamers in the second preseason game.  Thought about stacking Allen as my flex, but think that’s more of playing for 5th than for 1st strategy.

27 - Michael Crabtree OAK WR14 . . . Ranked WR13 in 2016

Is becoming the healthier of the Oakland WRs, and has playoff potential.

38 - Tyreek Hill KCC WR17  . . .  Ranked WR25 in 2016

Decided to buy into the hype, and the Alex Smith downfield hope, given the playoff potential.

230 - Chris Hogan NEP WR75 . . . Ranked WR37 in 2016

I understand the drop due to the Cooks hype and Gronk’s return, but with the January games he seemed like a no-brainer WR3 at this point, and well worth kicking the kicker can down for road for.

283 - Kendell Wright CHI WR93 . . .  Ranked WR83 in 2016

I went in thinking that, having the 6th free agent pick, I’d take flex last, but the five teams after me had taken a kicker already, so no use waiting on a flex.  Considered Boyd here, but I had just grabbed him at the end of a deep auction the day before.  Dodds seems quite high on Wright, likely because of the playing opportunity and weak TE situation with the Bears.

155 - Cameron Brate TBB TE25 . . . Ranked TE8 in 2016

It looks like people are slowly realizing that Howard will not be an immediate impact player in fantasy, but are sleeping somewhat on what that means for Brate.  The rookie TE are going too high, meaning there is value to be had in waiting for guys like Cook, Clay, and Brate.

166 - Broncos DEN DEF3 . . .  Ranked DEF4 in 2016

Add me to those surprised defenses went so late, particularly as compared to past years. Knowing that, I might have gone QB earlier and waited on a defense.

294 - Connor Barth CHI PK31 . .   Ranked PK29 in 2016

Seems likely to hold off Aguayo, but if not I’ll be able to grab a replacement.

I like that all of your players will be producing points.

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32 - Panthers, Carolina CAR TMQB7... Ranked QB26 in  2016

33 - Murray, DeMarco TEN RB10... Ranked RB6 in 2016

96 - Martin, Doug TBB RB31... Ranked RB26 in 2016

288 - Booker, Devontae DEN RB69... Ranked RB34 in 2016

97 - Maclin, Jeremy BAL WR37... Ranked WR71 in 2016

160 - Stills, Kenny MIA WR62... Ranked WR43 in 2016

161 - Gabriel, Taylor ATL WR63... Ranked WR50 in 2016

289 - Gresham, Jermaine ARI TE36... Ranked TE31 in 2016

224 - Dawson, Phil ARI PK17... Ranked PK23 in 2016

225 - Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def14... Ranked DEF11 in 2016

Lots of questions, not many answers with this rag tag bunch.  Always a fun draft.

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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1 hour ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

32 - Panthers, Carolina CAR TMQB7... Ranked QB26 in  2016

33 - Murray, DeMarco TEN RB10... Ranked RB6 in 2016

96 - Martin, Doug TBB RB31... Ranked RB262 in 2016

288 - Booker, Devontae DEN RB69... Ranked RB34 in 2016

97 - Maclin, Jeremy BAL WR37... Ranked WR71 in 2016

160 - Stills, Kenny MIA WR62... Ranked WR43 in 2016

161 - Gabriel, Taylor ATL WR63... Ranked WR50 in 2016

289 - Gresham, Jermaine ARI TE36... Ranked TE31 in 2016

224 - Dawson, Phil ARI PK17... Ranked PK23 in 2016

225 - Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def14... Ranked DEF11 in 2016

Lots of questions, not many answers with this rag tag bunch.  Always a fun draft.

Not even sure if that's scored in even this league.

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