Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Joe Bryant

Where Do Your Rank Jay Cutler In Miami?

What's your expectation for how Jay Cutler will finish compared to where Ryan Tannehill was originally projected?   132 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your expectation for how Jay Cutler will finish compared to where Ryan Tannehill was originally projected?

    • Better than what was projected for Tannehill
      32
    • About the same as what was projected for Tannehill
      61
    • Worse than than what was projected for Tannehill
      35

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

51 posts in this topic

Starting a new thread on specifically Cutler in Miami.

How do you see him finishing this year?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Better.  Tannehill is abysmal.

lol

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Huge bump for Parker IMO. Cutler locks onto big strong receivers.

Add Thomas to the mix with the way Gase and Cutler use TEs. He would be Marty Bennett value in this offense. 

Edited by Mavis

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From today's FBG email on the subject:

Quote

SELL

Kenny Stills

With a lower volume projection, the ancillary weapons are the most notably impacted. Stills was relevant in 2016 with 81 targets, but his nine touchdowns (on 42 receptions) is a clear regression stat. Stills is a hold in best ball formats with his 'any week' big play possibility, but in traditional formats, Stills is a sell (or avoid) with higher competition for targets and a slight downshift in passing volume as the projected No.3 receiver. Stills would need a 'what if' scenario involving extended time missed by Jarvis Landry or DeVante Parker to emerge back on the typical fantasy league depth radar.

I completely disagree with this.

I assume "downshift in passing volume" means fewer passing attempts... MIA was already #31 in passing attempts with 477 last season. In 2015, with Gase as OC, Fox as HC (read: conservative offense), and Cutler at QB -- the season everyone keeps referencing as Cutler's best -- CHI had 523 passing attempts.

I see MIA passing attempts increasing with Cutler at QB. I see Landry's target share decreasing in favor of shifting targets to Parker, Stills, and Ajayi. If Stills plays 16 games, I don't see his 81 targets dropping; he is the best deep threat on the team, which plays to Cutler's live arm. Stills is also still the 25 year old who MIA just signed to a 4 year $32M contract in the offseason.

Sure, Stills may not repeat 9 TDs, as that is a high number. But I don't see losing a couple TDs as turning him into a sell. At least not in leagues with any depth of rostered players.

Edited by Just Win Baby
3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with JWB comments above.

Using Denver as the template Stills is playing Emanuel Sanders role in the offense, Parker will play the DeMarius Thomas role.

Stills still has value in this passing game, including if Matt Moore starts some games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I agree with JWB comments above.

Using Denver as the template Stills is playing Emanuel Sanders role in the offense, Parker will play the DeMarius Thomas role.

Stills still has value in this passing game, including if Matt Moore starts some games.

So what role will Landry have?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Mavis said:

So what role will Landry have?

Less than he has been getting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Starting a new thread on specifically Cutler in Miami.

How do you see him finishing this year?

 

I think he would do better than Tannehill. Tannehill is brutal with balls downfield which I think Cutler can improve on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My first thought was better but looking at it more I don't see how that's a very reasonable projection.  His fantasy numbers in Chicago were generally worse than what Tannehill was putting up in Miami and Cutler had some pretty good WRs in Chicago for a spell.

Even with a healthy Marshall/Alshon Cutler put up just 15.3ppg, a number that Tannehill eclipsed for 3 straight years with worse surrounding talent prior to last year's debacle.

Cutler's career best for a season is 255 fantasy points, which Tannehill has eclipsed twice as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

From today's FBG email on the subject:

I completely disagree with this.

I assume "downshift in passing volume" means fewer passing attempts... MIA was already #31 in passing attempts with 477 last season. In 2015, with Gase as OC, Fox as HC (read: conservative offense), and Cutler at QB -- the season everyone keeps referencing as Cutler's best -- CHI had 523 passing attempts.

I see MIA passing attempts increasing with Cutler at QB. I see Landry's target share decreasing in favor of shifting targets to Parker, Stills, and Ajayi. If Stills plays 16 games, I don't see his 81 targets dropping; he is the best deep threat on the team, which plays to Cutler's live arm. Stills is also still the 25 year old who MIA just signed to a 4 year $32M contract in the offseason.

Sure, Stills may not repeat 9 TDs, as that is a high number. But I don't see losing a couple TDs as turning him into a sell. At least not in leagues with any depth of rostered players.

Thanks @Just Win Baby   I've asked Chad to see more what he's thinking there. I see Stills as a "sell" from last year meaning I think his 2016 TDs were an outlier. We see him for 5 TDs this year. But that's not related to Cutler. We see him as WR 61 this year. 

Where do you have him ranked?
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

About the same. Towards the lower end of the mid tier QBs. Guys that I rolled the dice one too many times when passing on QBs during the draft and now I'm stuck with. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

pretty much a push.

slight bump for Landry and drop for Parker and Stills.  push for Jay Ajaayaajjahahijiii.

Cutler is a better QB but doesn't have the save rapport with the receivers as Tannehill.

first half of the year may be slightly more rocky than anticipated but second half my be better than anticipated.

I think the fish can earn a wildcard spot, which makes next year all the more fascinating...does Cutler get Tannehill run out of town?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thanks @Just Win Baby   I've asked Chad to see more what he's thinking there. I see Stills as a "sell" from last year meaning I think his 2016 TDs were an outlier. We see him for 5 TDs this year. But that's not related to Cutler. We see him as WR 61 this year. 

Where do you have him ranked?
 

pardon me for butting in, but doesn't your logic imply that Parker ascends?  if so, what have we seen that suggests he will?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I won't rank Cutler high enough to be on any of my rosters.  If I had to start him some weeks, I'd really have to rethink the choices I've made in life.

I do bump NE's defense up a couple of spots.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Yes I know.  The feeling is that Parker sheds nagging injuries and does 15% better than what he has shown.

I'm more of the school of thought that Stills has shown he can play and Parker hasn't.

Although there is something to be said for Cutler gravitating to throwing at big targets so maybe this helps Parker get over the hump and hurts Stills....I'm just not going to make that bet.

 

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

My first thought was better but looking at it more I don't see how that's a very reasonable projection.  His fantasy numbers in Chicago were generally worse than what Tannehill was putting up in Miami and Cutler had some pretty good WRs in Chicago for a spell.

Even with a healthy Marshall/Alshon Cutler put up just 15.3ppg, a number that Tannehill eclipsed for 3 straight years with worse surrounding talent prior to last year's debacle.

Cutler's career best for a season is 255 fantasy points, which Tannehill has eclipsed twice as well.

Looking at the two players careers the highest Tannehill has finished is QB 9 in 2014 his 3rd season.

Jay Cutler finished as QB 4 in his 3rd season in 2008.

When Cutler went to the Bears they were having him throw to the likes of Johnny Knox and Devin Hester his first three seasons there. 

In 2012 when they got Marshall and Jeffrey was a rookie Cutler only threw the ball 434 times in 15 games. The Bears had a good defense and Love Smith the head coach.

2013 Cutler missed 5 games. Marshall and Jeffrey were both top 12 WR.

2014 Cutler played 15 games and had 561 passing attempts completed 66% of them 3812 yards 28 TD 18 interceptions. This is the only season when Cutler had near the attempts that Tannehill had in 3 seasons before making Gase the head coach. Marshall missed 3 games but TE Bennett had 90 receptions and Forte had 102. Cutler was QB 14 overall in fantasy that year.

2015 Cutler played 15 games but Marshall had moved on to the Jets by then. Jeffrey only played in 9 games that year. Bennett in only 11 games. They had Cutler throw the ball 483 times in this situation.

So you only have 2013 where both Marshall and Jeffrey were healthy, Cutler missed 5 of those games, they were both top 12 WRs.

In 2014 Cutler threw more TD (28) than RT highest of 27 in 2014. In one fewer game. Marshall besides being injured was having differences with Trestman and the team in general, so Cutler used his TE and RB as receivers a lot more.

Ryan Tannehill has had more passing attempts and games played than Cutler during overlapping time frames.

As far as other indicators such as yards per attempt Tanehill is career 7 YPA while Cutlet is 7.2 YPA. Cutler 4.6 TD% to Tannehills 4% Cutler 3.3 INT% Tannehill 2.5% Cutler Sack 6.3% Tannehill 7.5

So Cutler has thrown interceptions more frequently than Tannehill but also throws more TDs yards and is sacked a bit less.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cutler likes to sling the ball downfield, so I would bump Parker and Stills and downgrade Landry slightly.  Ajayi has no impact.

I would put Cutler around QB21, so about the same as Tannehill.  Still think it's going to be a run first team with Ajayi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lower third in the league and only startable in two qb leagues or as a bye week replacement and that is being kind.

Edited by JohnnyU

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

FWIW, you guys are higher on Cutler than my guys on Twitter. https://twitter.com/Football_Guys/status/894273433311207424

I tend to agree more with you guys here.

In full disclosure, Twitter is the worst place for a polls in my opinion...but this poll here you posted is what I expected considering how "popular" Cutler isnt.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Lower third in the league and only startable in two qb leagues or as a bye week replacement and that is being kind.

Seems your hate for Cutler is much deeper than fantasy if you think that is being kind. We have all owned Cutler in our years, he isnt good, but with a new team, things change. Is he a stud? No, is he in the bottom third with Kesslers and McCowns? No. 

I'll take him over Flacco, Smith, Goff, Hoyer, Taylor, Bradford and any Houston, Cleveland, NYJets, Chicago.

He is right there with Palmer, Dalton, Wentz and Bortles.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tannehill and Cutler are both similar QBs IMO. Tons of natural talent, they look the part of NFL star QB. However, they just have never been able to really be above average NFL QBs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've got him slotted in the QB19-24 range.

What's he worth in terms of FAAB % in a 14 team superflex dynasty league? I'm interested in picking him up, but I don't want to spend my whole FAAB to do it. Any thoughts or advice? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

I've got him slotted in the QB19-24 range.

What's he worth in terms of FAAB % in a 14 team superflex dynasty league? I'm interested in picking him up, but I don't want to spend my whole FAAB to do it. Any thoughts or advice? 

Tough to say.  14-team superflex seems like QBs are pretty valuable.  I would look back at what some past QBs have gone for and figure where you slot Cutler in alongside them.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Cutler will be able to open the offense up more because of his arm. Under Gase, Cutler had his best year as a pro and if you look at the stats of Culter under Gase and Tannehill last year- they are fairly comparable. Cutler had more yards and TD's and one less INT but a lower completion percentage. None of which were large differences. It will be close but I think we will get a bit more yards and a bit more TD's out of Cutler than Tannehill would have provided. Cutler jumps a few spots up on my rankings from where Tannehill had been sitting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt Moore will be this team's #1 quarterback.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know why there is any optimism for him. He was brutal when he was on the field last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How much of a concern is it that Cutler is reporting this late and is reportedly out if shape?

Pat Kirwin of Sirius NFL said that he didn't think Cutler would be able to jump right in since he hasn't been throwing, i.e. he wouldn't be able to do all of the first team 11v11 right away and his throwing would need to be monitored 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Starting a new thread on specifically Cutler in Miami.

How do you see him finishing this year?

 

Fools gold.  That's my name for him.  I held him before and suffered disappointment, as have all who have grabbed ahold of the iron pyrite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm another who voted about the same.  Cutler is good enough to run the same offense and do OK but I don't see them changing what they were planning because they have Cutler. I think this team wants to run the football with Ajayi and play good defense.  The passing game has enough talent to be effective but if they felt Cutler was a big upgrade over Tannehill they would have signed him a long time ago.  I just don't see much changing due to this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, JaxBill said:

How much of a concern is it that Cutler is reporting this late and is reportedly out if shape?

Pat Kirwin of Sirius NFL said that he didn't think Cutler would be able to jump right in since he hasn't been throwing, i.e. he wouldn't be able to do all of the first team 11v11 right away and his throwing would need to be monitored 

Zero concern for me. It's good that it sounds like they are recognizing they may have to monitor his throwing as he builds up to avoid a dead arm.  He has a month to get ready.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I realize this is an inexact science, but over the past three seasons, Tannehill ranked 19th in fantasy ppg (19.70) and Cutler ranked 24th (18.97) using whatever scoring system the Historical Dominator uses. Cutler ranked as QB26 in ppg in his one saeson under Gase.

Cutler most likely is out of shape and never played with his new teammates, so I would guess out of the gate he will do worse than Tannehill would have. IMO, both guys are sub-optimal fantasy QB2's in a 12 team league.

Put another way, I'd be looking elsewhere for my starting and back up fantasy QB's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.