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Tarik Cohen - RB - CHI (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JFS171
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm not sold on Nagy either. Cohen needs to figure out how to run north south and take what the defense gives him. It's a pro adjustment I haven't seen him make yet. He tries to hit home runs around the outside too much. There are plays where that ain't happening and you need to cut upfield for the +3 instead of the -5. But he was the best playmaker for them last year and Nagy gave him the ball 4 times in their playoff loss. I thought that was bush league. He is a weapon and should be featured just not to the rushing extent some people think he should.
Milkman
Footballguy
Oh yeah. 100-120 rushes max but more targets and special teams work. Nagy just doesn't see it. Bad news for all offensive skill players on that team imo.
Yep. For all Nagy's great 'scheming' genius people go on about, he hasn't really shown an ability to maximise his weapons over the course of a game or season (see Cohen).
I also disagree with comments about Cohen needing to see fewer rushing attempts. I've always thought Cohen was a fantastic inside runner for his size - he may be small, but he's thick and strong. I appreciate that he will likely get limited rushing opportunities with Montgomery and Davis around, but it's definitely something he can do. He's not just a gadget RB.
Black and Gold
Footballguy
I don't really see the negativity for Cohen this year. In PPR, he's golden. I think you can plug him in every week and not really have a bad week. He's a weapon that the Bears aren't going to forget about. Neither will Trubisky. I see a Brian Westbrook clone. He was a top 10 RB for about 5 straight years.
Milkman
Footballguy
Except they did forget about Cohen on several occasions......including the last playoff game they played that they lost.
This could be a marked difference between the PPR and standard-scoring crowd.
As a std-score guy I get the reasoning for Cohen as an RB3, given they added two guys likely better than him at running short yardage, one of whom is also likely better than Howard was at it.
In PPR, Cohen should still be seen as a rich-man’s James Whie, and up near Phillip Lindsay tier-wise.
As a std-score guy I get the reasoning for Cohen as an RB3, given they added two guys likely better than him at running short yardage, one of whom is also likely better than Howard was at it.
In PPR, Cohen should still be seen as a rich-man’s James Whie, and up near Phillip Lindsay tier-wise.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This is a case of a coach not using FF players as much as we'd like rather than not coaching football very well. Nagy turned the worst offense in football into a pretty good one. Specifically for Cohen, he had tops ypt for runningbacks, or close to it.
For this year, has Nagy come out and said anything specific about how he planned to scale back Cohen? All I've seen is speculation.
For this year, has Nagy come out and said anything specific about how he planned to scale back Cohen? All I've seen is speculation.
Milkman
Footballguy
They have ignored him in the past and their offense struggled in those games. They also drafted a RB. I'm not saying they should run him 250+ times but they should expand his role. It appears reading between the lines that's not in their plans.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I'm all over him in all drafts this year. Seems like he outperforms every year.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Really interested to see how the Bears RBs shake out this year. Last year Cohen had the monopoly on being the best Bears receiving RB. Montgomery is a legit receiving RB. How much Montgomery eats into Cohen's stats will be interesting.
Milkman
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Im confused as to why you say this.
They drafted a RB in the 3rd, signed a free agent RB for close to peanuts, thus replacing the 2 they left go. The saints invested in Latavius Murray but nobody questions they like Kamara.
Milkman
Footballguy
The Saints consistently give the ball to Kamara. The Bears have never fully bought into Cohen and then bringing in two pass catching backs doesn't really inspire confidence that Cohen's workload is going up or even staying the same.
I'm not sure he eats into Cohen's receiving much. Cohen is the most dangerous weapon on the offense, and Nagy had all offseason to think about why they lost to the Eagles, and not using Cohen enough is probably top-3.
I think it could be more likely that Trey Burton, loses targets, maybe Gabriel too (though Miller could pick some of them up) and they use Cohen as much as they did a year ago as a pass catcher. I do agree Cohen could certainly lose carries, but I think Davis is more insurance, than an actual threat. I'd be surprised if Davis topped 75 touches this year. I'd guess 250(220 carries, 30 catches) for Montgomery, and 125(50 carries, 75 catches) for Cohen.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
2 things:
There's 2 different RBBCs: the Payton model of distributing plays evenly each game vs the Patriot model of playing matchups. Of the 2, Nagy goes with the latter. Notice both Cohen and Howard disappeard at times last year.
So they added some better pass catchers. But neither Montgomery nor Davis can pull the stunts of the Cohen. If Nagy will continue to play the matchups, no way they will make Cohen obsolete.
Im not saying Cohen doesnt lose some touches. I think probably Howard forced him on the field at times last year, which won't be the case anymore. That's different than complete disappearance, which to me is an overrraction.
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Milkman
Footballguy
This is where I'm at. Howard being non existent helped Cohen. That situation isn't in Chicago anymore and Cohen's touches can only go down from here. If he loses 15% of his catches can you start him with any confidence?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I hope this is right, but man alive, go watch some tape of Davis. Dude is no average journeyman. People are really underestimating how good he looks at times last year.
He replaced Lattimore at USC (the other one) and was a 4th round draft choice. I know, was crappy with the 49ers. Well you try playing for Jim Tomsula & Chip Kelly.
His first year in Seattle was the year we confirmed Eddie Lacy isn’t good at football & neither is Thomas Rawls.Not saying he’ll move past Montgomery but he’s not just a mouth breather. He will def get some work.
Milkman
Footballguy
Absolutely. The entire thing is a mess now.I hope this is right, but man alive, go watch some tape of Davis. Dude is no average journeyman. People are really underestimating how good he looks at times last year.
He replaced Lattimore at USC (the other one) and was a 4th round draft choice. I know, was crappy with the 49ers. Well you try playing for Jim Tomsula & Chip Kelly.
Not saying he’ll move past Montgomery but he’s not just a mouth breather. He will def get some work.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Montgomery looks like a combination of Howard and Cohen. Now they have 3 legit RBs. Davis is way better than Benny Cunningham. I doubt Montgomery gets all of Howards workload. 250 carries is a lot. Guessing Davis and Montgomery share that, but have to think Montgomery is out there more on passing downs. Where that leaves Cohen, I'm not sure. Seems like the only way Cohen gets 94 targets again this year is if Montgomery gets hurt or they use Cohen as a receiver.
Montgomery looked smooth last night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxvdyJkEniY
Montgomery looked smooth last night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxvdyJkEniY
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I already have him at 20% fewer targets and less efficiency. Somehow I still find him a value in the 5th, talking ppr. I'm comfortable using him as my RB2-3 considering the variance neither good nor bad. To quote Mike Tomlin, "It is what it is".
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Trying to think through this situation this year. Seems odd how lowly he is ranked. I know people expect the rookie to cut into his touches, but he only had 170 last year. Based on how he performed, you would think he should have a bigger role. I feel like I've been on the same side as @Milkman on a few of these though...that concerns me.
Milkman
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
MooversShakers
Footballguy
fightingillini
Footballguy
I am a big Bears fan. While I love Cohen from a fan perspective, he's going to be a headache to own in fantasy. My take is:
1) The Bears love Montgomery's skills, I mean they did spend a 3rd rounder on him. That said, it's unknown how the Bears will split up the carries between Montgomery/Davis/Cohen. I would be pretty surprised if Cohen gets over 100 carries, unless one of Davis/Montgomery gets hurt. And if one gets hurt, I would suspect Cohen's usage won't go up that much....I would suspect either Davis/Montgomery would pick up most of the slack.
2) Cohen is not a particularly good inside runner. And with Davis and Montgomery, they don't need Cohen to do the heavy lifting inside. What would be great to see is....Cohen AND one of Davis/Montgomery in the backfield at the same time. The Bears can get creative and get Cohen some really good spots to make big plays when another RB is in the game. In the past, when Howard was in, the Bears generally ran the football and passed it when Cohen was in the game.
3) Cohen is going to get his targets and is probably still a lock for 60+ receptions. He's a matchup nightmare against a LB, similar to Kamara (but Kamara is a far superior runner compared to Cohen). So he will retain value that way.
4) Cohen is pretty much a game script guy. Some games you will a big game, usually if the Bears are behind, which probably won't happen that much given the strength of the Bears defense. Other games he might be pretty quiet if the Bears are in the lead and they want to play ball control. Look at his game log for 2018. Cohen caught 6+ passes for 6 games, and 1-2 passes for 5 games. He had only 10+ carries in one game. So he's going to be feast or famine.
He's a decent RB3, someone as a spot starter when the match up is right. His ADP is RB27, which IMO is a little high, even in a PPR league. I would rather gamble on other RBs like Coleman, Drake, James White, or even Ekeler who are going in that similar range.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Is it feasable Cohen sees more time in the slot this year? I know hes a great receiver as a rb, but I don't know if he is better than Gabriel. Any homer thoughts?
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
1) seems pretty spot on
2) You get off base- first, it’s always fun to imagine “what if they have both on the field?” Imagine a number of backfields with 2 viable options over the years- teams simply don’t do this, and Chicago is no exception. They have used Howard and Cohen in their respective roles; they drafted Montgomery for this exact purpose imo, to have one back on the field that can do both.
3) Herein lies the risk with Cohen- he could lose targets if this turns out to be true. He’s talented and will get his work, but I don’t consider him a lock for anything because his use may be spottier.
4) You allude to his variability in use/scoring last year, and I predict more of the same. At rb27, and simply looking at the names you float out there, you’re right to pass on Cohen for those guys or even guys that could earn more significant time, if not outright start, like Duke Johnson or kalen ballage. Best case scenario Cohen has his same role as last year (maybe with a bit more use) but even with an injury he won’t get rb1 use.
blips24
Footballguy
The problem is that we don't know what Nagy is going to do. He will not play the starters in pre-season. But I'm trying to see if I can get someone to take Cohen in my dynasty league because I think his targets are going to go down. Too many options to spread the ball around. I'm trying to sell high.
djmich
Footballguy
What are you selling for. Most dynasty sites have him around RB 27....around guys like Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson, Damien Williams. I'd consider Carson worth a 1st+, Penny at least a late first and Darrel Henderson a late first. But I can't see Cohen fetching a first. Am I undervaluing him?
fightingillini
Footballguy
No. Carson, Penny and Henderson could fetch a first because they have a shot at being "the man" and getting 270+ touches.
Cohen is a very good NFL player and valuable to the Bears, but his role is clearly defined and odds are he will never get 270+ touches. Personally, I wouldn't give a first for a player that is clearly going to be an RB3 going forward. I want to use my first round picks for more upside players that can/could be clear starters.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
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djmich
Footballguy
Wow, for sure a guy whose value has a wide range.
One thing about Cohen that makes me not want to sell out despite the 2019 mixed outlook is that he’s a FA after next year. I believe he’ll get paid by someone to play enough to get more solid rb2 value
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
First 2 years in the NFL:
Duke = 177 att 737 yards 4.16 ypc 1 TD, 114 rec 1,048 yards 9.19 ypr 2 TD
Cohen = 186 att 814 yards 4.4 ypc 5 TD, 124 rec 1,078 yards 8.7 ypr 6 TD
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Yeah pretty close stat wise but I was referring to the fact that “he will hit free agency and get paid/used.” Duke owners hoped for the same thing, then he resigned with Cleveland and they drafted Chubb and signed hunt and he looked to be buried on the depth chart until he was traded.
Milkman
Footballguy
Pretty sure that's the nail in the coffin and what I started suspecting a few weeks ago. If he was dropped I'd pick him up but I wouldn't trade a 3rd round rookie pick for Cohen at this point. Nagy has no idea what he has and won't use him enough. The more decisions I disagree with Nagy on the less confidence I have he'll use Trubisky right either.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'm not scared, maybe now the guy will accept a 2nd + Richard.
Neither Davis nor Montgomery are the pass catcher that is Cohen. Nagy can say one thing, but a few big plays will change his tune. This I believe, the best player philosophy. May have burned me a couple times but whatever.
Anyhow, Nagy said they may have used Cohen a "little bit too much". I think we all expected some regression, right? He's going in the 6th now, so I'd say yes. Cohen's still good for 60-70 targets, 80 carries.
What scares me is Nagy saying they “used Cohen a little too much” after an entire offseason of people complaining about how underused Cohen was at season’s end. This points in the opposite direction of what Cohen fans thought should happen.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Cohen owners had visions of grandeur after the Bears traded Howard, at which time he fetched multiple 1sts, or at least that was the asking price. It turns out the Bears used him appropriately, he's just not suited for 200+ carries. Now some regression to the mean ensues. 90 targets at 8 ypt is pretty high for a time-share running back, you'd have to expect those numbers to go down a little.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Did the Bears lean on Tarik Cohen's versatility too much late last year?
The original article for those interested in context. Rotowire will always be Rotowire.
The original article for those interested in context. Rotowire will always be Rotowire.
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