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Tarik Cohen - RB - CHI

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5 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

FWIW, I'm all in on Cohen as well.  That said, 80-96 catches is not his floor.  Good lord.  

perhaps over stated... didn't do the math on that. I suppose I would say that my expectation would be 65-70 catches is his floor. I honestly don't expect him to get less than 8 targets a game... I'm likely wrong and seeing what I want to see, but given how he was used, his unique skill set, and the fact that the Bears will be throwing a lot this season... I just see a big opportunity. I would be surprised if he averaged below 4 a game by the end of the season. 

I expect similar statistics as Riddick... about 80 catches. Maybe 80-96 is a ceiling, but I think his floor is not much lower. This is obviously my view as I saw worthy of dedicating the vast majority of my FAAB to him after 1 game... I think he's a "can't miss" sort of RB2 in PPR; floor/ceiling kind of close. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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Watching the video I definitely still like what I see but IMO this guy is a scat-back who looks to bounce outside.  I am not sure his role changes in the event something happens to Howard.

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6 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Serious question, would he draw the #1 corner?

It's not like Chicago has Matt Jones lining up at WR (ha, remember him?)

Wheaton and Wright aren't awful. They just haven't done much yet 

I'd imagine if he lines up in the slot, I'd probably seriously consider this if I were a DC... He's likely to get a lot of safety coverage as he lines up in weird formations or runs routes from the backfield. But yes I wouldn't be surprised if he got the CB1 or even the CB2

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Cohen touched the ball 20 times week 1... 

Leonard Fournette: 29 touches
David Cook: 25 touches
Kareem Hunt: 22 touches
Christian McCaffrey: 18 touches

Ty Montgomery got 23 touches and people were raving about how he was used so heavily (FTR I am pleased to be wrong about that one)

Players have more opportunities to score fantasy points the more often they touch the ball. That's why I have high expectations for him... he touches the ball a lot. 



 

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19 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Watching the video I definitely still like what I see but IMO this guy is a scat-back who looks to bounce outside.  I am not sure his role changes in the event something happens to Howard.

People going crazy to get Dexter McCluster 2

hope it works out for them...

Edited by NREC34

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1 minute ago, NREC34 said:

People going crazy to get Dexter McCluster 2

hope it works out for them...

Quite possibly. Could be Darren Sproles 2 also just as easy. FF is all about taking chances! 

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So Bloom has him at 50+ of your budget and predicts that he may be--looking back--a top 5 WW pickup in PPR this year. I lost Woodhead and my RBs are by far my weakest position. It's an FFPC league and I'm considering making a substantial bid. Maybe on the order of about 80%.

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2 hours ago, Mozeta said:

In one of my leagues with a $100 budget I bid $23 and he went for $27.  I’m not hurting at RB so I’m fine with it and I don’t feel any more scared by the team that picked him up now than I did yesterday.  I don’t think Cohen is a guy who can win your league for you, I see him as more of a glorified Darren Sproles that caught the Falcons off guard.   I think he will have a solid role in the Chicago passing game due to all their other injuries, so he has value.  However, even if Howard goes down, I  don’t think his value will change much.  If you need a flex, he probably has a pretty decent floor and I think we have already seen his ceiling.  That being said I lost Johnson in a few other leagues and will probably up my bid a bit to try to get him in those leagues. 

 

There seems to be a handful of people here who are super pumped about this guy which gives me optimism that maybe I’m wrong, but to say this type of player can’t be planned for or stopped seems a little far-fetched to me.  No one is unstoppable in the NFL and if that were the case, every team in the NFL would have a guy just like him and just throw it to the unstoppable guy every time.  Keep in mind the guy is 5’6” and weighs 180 which is smaller than Sproles.   I don’t think you let a guy that small touch the ball 15+ times a game as there is no way he holds up.  I think in PPR he will give you a solid 8-12 points each week but he will be hard pressed to break 20 points again.  I just don’t see the point in blowing your budget on a player like this.  I would first ask myself how much I would be willing to spend on Darren Sproles right now and try to apply that logic when bidding on Cohen.  I would be more worried about blowing my wad in week 1 on Cohen and not having enough money left to get a guy later on who could actually win you your league. 

With the Saints, Darren Sproles finished RB10 one year, and RB22 the next year (while missing 3 games).  That was on an average of 11.6 touches/game the first year, and 10.7 the next.

Just FYI I guess.  But if Cohen is *just* the New Orleans Darren Sproles, that would be more than fine.

 

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***Analysis Incoming!***

 

In 2016 the team stats breakdown like this:

QB attempts:  558 (35/game)

Jordan Howard:  252 rush 50 targets 29 receptions

Jeremy Langford + others:  100 rush 35 targets 25 receptions

ALL WRs:  7 rush 363 targets 221 receptions

ALL TEs:  101 targets 71 receptions

 

This year, yes they will throw to WRs.  Though we can expect a major regression on targets going to WRs.  But I expect the QB attempts to be the same due to game flow and the expectation that they will fall behind in nearly every game.

 

2017 Safe Rushing Projections

Jordan Howard:  Had 13 carries out of possible 19 carries for 68% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project him to have 238 rushes this year.  He averaged 5.2 yard/carry in 2016 and 4.0 in week 1.  Let's give him an average of 5.0 for 1190 projected yards.

Tarik Cohen:  Let's give him Michael Burton's lone carry for 6 out of possible 19 carries.  Because I don't think Michael friggin Burton is going to get any carries again.  So 6 out of 19 for 32% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project 112 rushes.  He won't average 13.2 yard/carry as that 46 yard run inflated the total.  His college average was 6.5.  Let's knock that down a little due to NFL competition and give it 5.5.  That comes out to 616 projected rushing yards.

 

2017 Safe Receiving Projections

Jordan Howard:  Even with Cohen's emergence I'm going to keep Howard's reception target at 50 due to how this offense is constructed.  He had a terrible catch rate of 58%.  Sproles is the shining example at 73%.  Howard averaged 10.3 yards/catch last year which is quite high for a RB.  Sproles averaged 8.2 in 2016.  I'll knock that down to 5.0.  I just don't see him getting many chances to break huge reception runs.  I'll give Howard the same catches as 2016 at 29 total.  That puts him at 145 reception yards.

Tarik Cohen:  I do not expect Cohen to command 12 targets a game.  We really need to knock this down.  Sproles averaged 4.7 targets/game in 2016 but he was hurt for a few games.  With the Bears lacking playmakers at WR I'm comfortable giving Cohen an average of 7 targets per game and I still think that's too generous.  Cohen averaged 9.6 yards/catch in college.  No way that translates to NFL.  Let's safely give him 7.0 yards/catch at an efficient rate of 70% with those great hands.  Again, Sproles is the shining example at 73% so I'm still putting him a little under Sproles.  That comes out to 78 catches and 546 reception yards.

 

Cohen's 2017 TD Projections

This is extremely difficult to predict.  In 2016 Tyreek Hill had 12 total TDs.  3 from the ground, 6 from catches and 3 from punt/kickoff returns.  Tyreek Hill is a good comparison because Cohen is being used in a similar way to gauge his TD potential.  I certainly can't go overboard and say he will have 12!  From the surface, trimming down and using Tyreek as an example let's say 2 from the ground, 4 from catches and 1 from punt/kickoff returns.  7 total TDs is a safe projection.

 

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

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2 hours ago, Mozeta said:

In one of my leagues with a $100 budget I bid $23 and he went for $27.  I’m not hurting at RB so I’m fine with it and I don’t feel any more scared by the team that picked him up now than I did yesterday.  I don’t think Cohen is a guy who can win your league for you, I see him as more of a glorified Darren Sproles that caught the Falcons off guard.   I think he will have a solid role in the Chicago passing game due to all their other injuries, so he has value.  However, even if Howard goes down, I  don’t think his value will change much.  If you need a flex, he probably has a pretty decent floor and I think we have already seen his ceiling.  That being said I lost Johnson in a few other leagues and will probably up my bid a bit to try to get him in those leagues. 

 

There seems to be a handful of people here who are super pumped about this guy which gives me optimism that maybe I’m wrong, but to say this type of player can’t be planned for or stopped seems a little far-fetched to me.  No one is unstoppable in the NFL and if that were the case, every team in the NFL would have a guy just like him and just throw it to the unstoppable guy every time.  Keep in mind the guy is 5’6” and weighs 180 which is smaller than Sproles.   I don’t think you let a guy that small touch the ball 15+ times a game as there is no way he holds up.  I think in PPR he will give you a solid 8-12 points each week but he will be hard pressed to break 20 points again.  I just don’t see the point in blowing your budget on a player like this.  I would first ask myself how much I would be willing to spend on Darren Sproles right now and try to apply that logic when bidding on Cohen.  I would be more worried about blowing my wad in week 1 on Cohen and not having enough money left to get a guy later on who could actually win you your league. 

By no means and I suggesting he can't be planned against. That's ridiculous. But I think it's equally ridiculous to state that every team will stop him because he can be planned against now.

I would gladly blow my wad on a NO Sproles right now. 

My main question would be, what other guy would warrant a 30-50+% bid "later on who could actually win me my league"?? I'd love to have some speculative names so I can add now for free. Point is, we have no idea. DJ goes down and there's garbage behind him. I'm not blowing my wad on a WR... if I'm going to do it, it's usually RB. My WW is fairly bare for now while guys stash these lotto tickets just in case. Cohen, Carson and Buck Allen were pretty much it... I confident in Abdullah but not terribly... so if one of my other 2 RBs goes down I am stuck with Abdullah and Eddie Lacy... now I have Cohen and Abdullah which is way better. 

I used this same logic you suggest with Howard last year and Dion Lewis the year before. Week 1 Lewis went nuts and there was this same conversation. He went on to be at least a RB2 that season and was very useful. I'm not counting on him scoring 20 points weekly, but he's a RB2 with (IMO) a low floor and a very high ceiling if he can find the end zone.  

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7 minutes ago, steelwind said:

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

I see how you got there, and I think you'd still have Howard as a high end RB2 as well.  When's the last time two RBs from the same team were both high end RB2s?

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6 minutes ago, steelwind said:

***Analysis Incoming!***

 

In 2016 the team stats breakdown like this:

QB attempts:  558 (35/game)

Jordan Howard:  252 rush 50 targets 29 receptions

Jeremy Langford + others:  100 rush 35 targets 25 receptions

ALL WRs:  7 rush 363 targets 221 receptions

ALL TEs:  101 targets 71 receptions

 

This year, yes they will throw to WRs.  Though we can expect a major regression on targets going to WRs.  But I expect the QB attempts to be the same due to game flow and the expectation that they will fall behind in nearly every game.

 

2017 Safe Rushing Projections

Jordan Howard:  Had 13 carries out of possible 19 carries for 68% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project him to have 238 rushes this year.  He averaged 5.2 yard/carry in 2016 and 4.0 in week 1.  Let's give him an average of 5.0 for 1190 projected yards.

Tarik Cohen:  Let's give him Michael Burton's lone carry for 6 out of possible 19 carries.  Because I don't think Michael friggin Burton is going to get any carries again.  So 6 out of 19 for 32% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project 112 rushes.  He won't average 13.2 yard/carry as that 46 yard run inflated the total.  His college average was 6.5.  Let's knock that down a little due to NFL competition and give it 5.5.  That comes out to 616 projected rushing yards.

 

2017 Safe Receiving Projections

Jordan Howard:  Even with Cohen's emergence I'm going to keep Howard's reception target at 50 due to how this offense is constructed.  He had a terrible catch rate of 58%.  Sproles is the shining example at 73%.  Howard averaged 10.3 yards/catch last year which is quite high for a RB.  Sproles averaged 8.2 in 2016.  I'll knock that down to 5.0.  I just don't see him getting many chances to break huge reception runs.  I'll give Howard the same catches as 2016 at 29 total.  That puts him at 145 reception yards.

Tarik Cohen:  I do not expect Cohen to command 12 targets a game.  We really need to knock this down.  Sproles averaged 4.7 targets/game in 2016 but he was hurt for a few games.  With the Bears lacking playmakers at WR I'm comfortable giving Cohen an average of 7 targets per game and I still think that's too generous.  Cohen averaged 9.6 yards/catch in college.  No way that translates to NFL.  Let's safely give him 7.0 yards/catch at an efficient rate of 70% with those great hands.  Again, Sproles is the shining example at 73% so I'm still putting him a little under Sproles.  That comes out to 78 catches and 546 reception yards.

 

Cohen's 2017 TD Projections

This is extremely difficult to predict.  In 2016 Tyreek Hill had 12 total TDs.  3 from the ground, 6 from catches and 3 from punt/kickoff returns.  Tyreek Hill is a good comparison because Cohen is being used in a similar way to gauge his TD potential.  I certainly can't go overboard and say he will have 12!  From the surface, trimming down and using Tyreek as an example let's say 2 from the ground, 4 from catches and 1 from punt/kickoff returns.  7 total TDs is a safe projection.

 

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

Thanks for this. This is an amazing break down of statistics and how similar players were used last year and around the league.

I agree with your TD assessment. I think 7 might be generous, but I think you broke it down well.

I think you hit it spot on and it's a very reasonable prediction of his statistics based on his usage and abilities. I think he has a lot of room to grow from here, as you said, but if this is what he ended up with, I'd be thrilled.


Add in punt return yards and, in my league, he might even get to RB1 status (1 point per 20 return yards) 

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4 minutes ago, matttyl said:

I see how you got there, and I think you'd still have Howard as a high end RB2 as well.  When's the last time two RBs from the same team were both high end RB2s?

Freeman was RB1 and Coleman mid RB2 last season.  

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9 minutes ago, matttyl said:

I see how you got there, and I think you'd still have Howard as a high end RB2 as well.  When's the last time two RBs from the same team were both high end RB2s?

I couldn't tell you when.  But historically it's rare.  However, scouts and analysts have compared him to Sproles and Tyreek Hill.  And how often have we seen this type of player in our generation?  Scouts want bigger, faster players.  They gain all the attention.  Remember, Sproles was a utility player in San Diego before he shined in NO.  Tyreek Hill was drafted in the 5th round.  We are lucky that KC gave him a chance and now you see his potential.  The formula has always been talent meets opportunity.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes. I think it's a lazy argument, no offense.

As I said above... 6 catches for 45 yards and 4 returns for 60yds is worth 14.5 points in my league. That's RB2 territory in my league, and IMO that seems to be his floor. (5-6 catches a game)  


 

That's fine.  I think it's just as lazy to project him for 150 all purpose yards per game (you didn't include rushing; I guessed) and 98 receptions based on his first NFL game.  Good luck.

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26 minutes ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

So Bloom has him at 50+ of your budget and predicts that he may be--looking back--a top 5 WW pickup in PPR this year. I lost Woodhead and my RBs are by far my weakest position. It's an FFPC league and I'm considering making a substantial bid. Maybe on the order of about 80%.

I thought Cohen looked good but that is too much to pay in my opinion.

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6 minutes ago, steelwind said:

I couldn't tell you when.  But historically it's rare.  However, scouts and analysts have compared him to Sproles and Tyreek Hill.  And how often have we seen this type of player in our generation?  Scouts want bigger, faster players.  They gain all the attention.  Remember, Sproles was a utility player in San Diego before he shined in NO.  Tyreek Hill was drafted in the 5th round.  We are lucky that KC gave him a chance and now you see his potential.  The formula has always been talent meets opportunity.

Tyreek Hill was drafted in the 5th round largely for reasons unrelated to football.

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16 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Freeman was RB1 and Coleman mid RB2 last season.  

And that was a team that went to the Super Bowl.  We're talking about the Chicago Bears here....

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1 minute ago, matttyl said:

And that was a team that went to the Super Bowl.  We're talking about the Chicago Bears here....

Very true.  On the flip side, the Falcons also had Julio Jones to feed.  I'm not ready to suggest that the both guys will be RB2s.  But I think the team will need to heavily rely on the RB spot to move the football - so I wouldn't be shocked. 

Cohen owner, FTR. 

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33 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Thanks for this. This is an amazing break down of statistics and how similar players were used last year and around the league.

I agree with your TD assessment. I think 7 might be generous, but I think you broke it down well.

I think you hit it spot on and it's a very reasonable prediction of his statistics based on his usage and abilities. I think he has a lot of room to grow from here, as you said, but if this is what he ended up with, I'd be thrilled.


Add in punt return yards and, in my league, he might even get to RB1 status (1 point per 20 return yards) 

When I do projections I bring historical data with clone like player comp.  Using Sproles stats as the shining example keeps my calculations in check.  The league and defenses have schemed against Sproles for years.  So it takes out the unknown.  I'm also conservative with the projected carries and targets.  Leaves room for upside.

 

If you look back I projected Cohens key stats under Sproles.  7.0 yards/catch to 8.2.  70% efficient catch rate to 73%.

Edited by steelwind

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55 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Cohen touched the ball 20 times week 1... 

Leonard Fournette: 29 touches
David Cook: 25 touches
Kareem Hunt: 22 touches
Christian McCaffrey: 18 touches

Ty Montgomery got 23 touches and people were raving about how he was used so heavily (FTR I am pleased to be wrong about that one)

Players have more opportunities to score fantasy points the more often they touch the ball. That's why I have high expectations for him... he touches the ball a lot. 
 

Just a point of information....

 

He had 13 touches on offense.

He also returned 3 punts; we give 0.025 pts per yard for KR/PR, but that's irrelevant in most leagues.

He also had 4 targets that went incomplete, but AFAIK leagues don't give points for incompletions. 

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39 minutes ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

So Bloom has him at 50+ of your budget and predicts that he may be--looking back--a top 5 WW pickup in PPR this year. I lost Woodhead and my RBs are by far my weakest position. It's an FFPC league and I'm considering making a substantial bid. Maybe on the order of about 80%.

Id need too ask, what it takes too go all in.. Top 5 PPR, Right.

I'm All in, or I'm PO'd, I blew sheet on something less.  (Don't gift me an RB1+, I'm already figuring too kick *ss)

 

IF ya want mine? Coach, really gonna risk his scat back, return man, too hungry hitters? Howard is a no *hit NFL RB1 (imho)

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1 minute ago, Dismattle said:

Id need too ask, what it takes too go all in.. Top 5 PPR, Right.

I'm All in, or I'm PO'd, I blew sheet on something less.  (Don't gift me an RB1+, I'm already figuring too kick *ss)

 

IF ya want mine? Coach, really gonna risk his scat back, return man, too hungry hitters? Howard is a no *hit NFL RB1 (imho)

What in the world... :whoosh:

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What I like about this situation is how many games are the Bears going to be down by 14+ points with about 7 minutes left in the game, I suspect more then a few.  This kid will rack up big time points during garbage time of the games, as other teams let them throw short passes to him.

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1 minute ago, Gopher State said:

What I like about this situation is how many games are the Bears going to be down by 14+ points with about 7 minutes left in the game, I suspect more then a few.  This kid will rack up big time points during garbage time of the games, as other teams let them throw short passes to him.

Yeah  That's when I get too see Real tackles.. (somewhat sadly, maybe) 

 

btw Sorre Andy,,  Hope too be wrong, Truthfully!

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30 minutes ago, steelwind said:

***Analysis Incoming!***

 

In 2016 the team stats breakdown like this:

QB attempts:  558 (35/game)

Jordan Howard:  252 rush 50 targets 29 receptions

Jeremy Langford + others:  100 rush 35 targets 25 receptions

ALL WRs:  7 rush 363 targets 221 receptions

ALL TEs:  101 targets 71 receptions

 

This year, yes they will throw to WRs.  Though we can expect a major regression on targets going to WRs.  But I expect the QB attempts to be the same due to game flow and the expectation that they will fall behind in nearly every game.

 

2017 Safe Rushing Projections

Jordan Howard:  Had 13 carries out of possible 19 carries for 68% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project him to have 238 rushes this year.  He averaged 5.2 yard/carry in 2016 and 4.0 in week 1.  Let's give him an average of 5.0 for 1190 projected yards.

Tarik Cohen:  Let's give him Michael Burton's lone carry for 6 out of possible 19 carries.  Because I don't think Michael friggin Burton is going to get any carries again.  So 6 out of 19 for 32% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project 112 rushes.  He won't average 13.2 yard/carry as that 46 yard run inflated the total.  His college average was 6.5.  Let's knock that down a little due to NFL competition and give it 5.5.  That comes out to 616 projected rushing yards.

 

2017 Safe Receiving Projections

Jordan Howard:  Even with Cohen's emergence I'm going to keep Howard's reception target at 50 due to how this offense is constructed.  He had a terrible catch rate of 58%.  Sproles is the shining example at 73%.  Howard averaged 10.3 yards/catch last year which is quite high for a RB.  Sproles averaged 8.2 in 2016.  I'll knock that down to 5.0.  I just don't see him getting many chances to break huge reception runs.  I'll give Howard the same catches as 2016 at 29 total.  That puts him at 145 reception yards.

Tarik Cohen:  I do not expect Cohen to command 12 targets a game.  We really need to knock this down.  Sproles averaged 4.7 targets/game in 2016 but he was hurt for a few games.  With the Bears lacking playmakers at WR I'm comfortable giving Cohen an average of 7 targets per game and I still think that's too generous.  Cohen averaged 9.6 yards/catch in college.  No way that translates to NFL.  Let's safely give him 7.0 yards/catch at an efficient rate of 70% with those great hands.  Again, Sproles is the shining example at 73% so I'm still putting him a little under Sproles.  That comes out to 78 catches and 546 reception yards.

 

Cohen's 2017 TD Projections

This is extremely difficult to predict.  In 2016 Tyreek Hill had 12 total TDs.  3 from the ground, 6 from catches and 3 from punt/kickoff returns.  Tyreek Hill is a good comparison because Cohen is being used in a similar way to gauge his TD potential.  I certainly can't go overboard and say he will have 12!  From the surface, trimming down and using Tyreek as an example let's say 2 from the ground, 4 from catches and 1 from punt/kickoff returns.  7 total TDs is a safe projection.

 

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

I appreciate the work on projections here.

I think your rushing attempts for Cohen are too high. Targets are likely too high as well. 7 targets per game would be 112 targets over 16 games. Those are David Johnson or LTs best season in terms of targets. Seems like too much, even with considering the Bears lack of other receiving options.

For an end of season guess at his numbers I would expect something more like 70 rushing attempts and 80 targets. Maybe that is too low but with only one game to work from, it is hard for me to be more optimistic than that. I still expect Howard to be their primary RB. Theo RIddick did have 99 targets in 2015 and was averaging 6.7 targets per game last year before being injured. So if Cohen is going to be used in similar way, 100 targets certainly possible, I would just lean to something more conservative then this, until proven wrong. I would rather under project a unknown player than to over project for them.

80 targets is 5 targets per game, which is still a lot for a RB. Chris Thompson of Washington is another example of a COP receiving RB and the most targets he has had in a season is 62 (3.8 per game) Even Darren Sproles who is one of the best receiving RB in NFL history only had 100 targets twice. Otherwise he has had targets in the 70-90 range. I am really not comfortable with projecting that high of targets for Cohen based on the information I have right now.

The last time I looked at RB receiving averages, a RB averages 73% catch rate and about 7 yards per reception. Cohen may be better than average, but with no NFL sample size to base this on for him, I would just plug in average numbers there for now, until we have 3 or 4 weeks of data to work with and try to extrapolate from. FWIW I used average numbers for Kareem Hunt moving forward for much the same reason.

So 70 rushing attempts at 4.2 ypc is 294 rushing yards. 80 targets at 73% is 58 receptions at 7 ypc is 406 yards. That is 700 combined yards or 44 yards per game.

I dunno. Even being optimistic and giving Cohen 100 targets 73 receptions 511 yards receiving, he is still falling short of 1000 combined yards.

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25 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I appreciate the work on projections here.

I think your rushing attempts for Cohen are too high. Targets are likely too high as well. 7 targets per game would be 112 targets over 16 games. Those are David Johnson or LTs best season in terms of targets. Seems like too much, even with considering the Bears lack of other receiving options.

For an end of season guess at his numbers I would expect something more like 70 rushing attempts and 80 targets. Maybe that is too low but with only one game to work from, it is hard for me to be more optimistic than that. I still expect Howard to be their primary RB. Theo RIddick did have 99 targets in 2015 and was averaging 6.7 targets per game last year before being injured. So if Cohen is going to be used in similar way, 100 targets certainly possible, I would just lean to something more conservative then this, until proven wrong. I would rather under project a unknown player than to over project for them.

80 targets is 5 targets per game, which is still a lot for a RB. Chris Thompson of Washington is another example of a COP receiving RB and the most targets he has had in a season is 62 (3.8 per game) Even Darren Sproles who is one of the best receiving RB in NFL history only had 100 targets twice. Otherwise he has had targets in the 70-90 range. I am really not comfortable with projecting that high of targets for Cohen based on the information I have right now.

The last time I looked at RB receiving averages, a RB averages 73% catch rate and about 7 yards per reception. Cohen may be better than average, but with no NFL sample size to base this on for him, I would just plug in average numbers there for now, until we have 3 or 4 weeks of data to work with and try to extrapolate from. FWIW I used average numbers for Kareem Hunt moving forward for much the same reason.

So 70 rushing attempts at 4.2 ypc is 294 rushing yards. 80 targets at 73% is 58 receptions at 7 ypc is 406 yards. That is 700 combined yards or 44 yards per game.

I dunno. Even being optimistic and giving Cohen 100 targets 73 receptions 511 yards receiving, he is still falling short of 1000 combined yards.

Thanks for this.  I can see your yard projections as his floor.  I spiked up his average target to 7 per game because he was being lined up as a WR.  And I project him to have plenty of check downs.  Glennon is like Alex Smith.

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Just now, steelwind said:

Thanks for this.  I can see your yard projections as his floor.  I spiked up his average target to 7 per game because he was being lined up as a WR.  And I project him to have plenty of check downs.  Glennon is like Alex Smith.

It could be. I still think 7 targets per game is high for the reasons I explained, but its possible. Riddick for example has been close to that level of targets in recent years. Cohen could be used that much I suppose.

I feel more comfortable with 5 targets per game than seven. I might be a bit low on the yards per reception.

I really liked what I saw of Cohen and I think he is a talented player. I would just be a bit more conservative in terms of the expected opportunities than you are.

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Luckily I picked Cohen up in both dynasty leagues as a dart throw before the season started but if I had to bid on him I'd break the bank. The situation is to juicy this year. He should break 100 targets because they will get both backs on the field and line Cohen up in the slot a lot. He's by far the bear's best weapon. Then you add in I'm very high on Trubisky and I see a great situation moving forward for Cohen.....

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

Luckily I picked Cohen up in both dynasty leagues as a dart throw before the season started but if I had to bid on him I'd break the bank. The situation is to juicy this year. He should break 100 targets because they will get both backs on the field and line Cohen up in the slot a lot. He's by far the bear's best weapon. Then you add in I'm very high on Trubisky and I see a great situation moving forward for Cohen.....

Nah break the bank for Dwayne Washington 

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Just now, NREC34 said:

Nah break the bank for Dwayne Washington 

meh I'm right more than I'm wrong. Dwyane might still bust out this year......AA is doing nothing to stay on the field.....Don't grab him if you want......I love picking the next starter up for free off the WW.

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@NREC34 I understand, and respect your dissenting opinion on Cohen.  But would you mind occasionally adding some analysis or insight into why you think he is not a good buy?

The snark only angle just clutters the thread.  TIA.

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4 minutes ago, Chaka said:

@NREC34 I understand, and respect your dissenting opinion on Cohen.  But would you mind occasionally adding some analysis or insight into why you think he is not a good buy?

The snark only angle just clutters the thread.  TIA.

Sorry. 

I think he has a chance to be a good pick up. He looked good in preseason. I did not get to watch his game Sunday however. I would just be cautious and not overpay unless you're really desperate at the RB position. 

That's my opinion. I don't hate him by any means. 

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Bottom line is in the one league I went zero RB and ended up with horrible RBs (AA, DMC, Lacy, Stewart) I am probably going all in for Cohen. Sucks but I dont really have a choice. In my other league where I went RB crazy Ill throw a moderate bid in the hopes I get him but Im not holding my breath.

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12 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

Sorry. 

I think he has a chance to be a good pick up. He looked good in preseason. I did not get to watch his game Sunday however. I would just be cautious and not overpay unless you're really desperate at the RB position. 

That's my opinion. I don't hate him by any means. 

No worries, we all do it from time to time.

I actually agree with your opinion about him.  I made him my #1 waiver pick (missed out) more because I perceived him to be a potentially marketable commodity with all his hype this week, plus I have Howard on my roster (although I am not sure that is important).  While I do see him as a potential lottery pick because he has legitimately nasty moves, my guess is that he will have to be incredibly efficient with his touches to truly be worthwhile this season (and possibly beyond).

Not sure Buck Allen was the best player available for me but I like his situation and I think he could assume a bigger and bigger role as the season progresses.  It's not like Terrance West has been a world beater throughout his career.  He's a decent consolation prize.

I also think Kamara is just as likely to see consistent touches as Cohen and he's on a much better offense, plus unlike Cohen he is built much sturdier and may be capable of running inside and taking a pounding. I haven't seen anything on film, not that I have watched a ton of film on the guy, to suggest Cohen could be deployed as an every down back.

Edited by Chaka

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

That's fine.  I think it's just as lazy to project him for 150 all purpose yards per game (you didn't include rushing; I guessed) and 98 receptions based on his first NFL game.  Good luck.

"All purpose" includes punt returns, no? Or does "all" not really mean "all"? 

If you read later, I did temper my results and conceded that my "floor" of 80-90 receptions was a bit much. I think 60-70 is his floor still, and I think that's reasonable. His ceiling and his floor are pretty close IMO

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28 minutes ago, Chaka said:

He did?

 

1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

Just a point of information....

 

He had 13 touches on offense.

He also returned 3 punts; we give 0.025 pts per yard for KR/PR, but that's irrelevant in most leagues.

He also had 4 targets that went incomplete, but AFAIK leagues don't give points for incompletions. 

I believe the information I was going off of (20 touches) was from the Chicago Tribune. So Yes, it appears that I was off by 4, or the term "touches" was misused by whomever wrote the article. 

Thanks for the correction

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I appreciate the work on projections here.

I think your rushing attempts for Cohen are too high. Targets are likely too high as well. 7 targets per game would be 112 targets over 16 games. Those are David Johnson or LTs best season in terms of targets. Seems like too much, even with considering the Bears lack of other receiving options.

For an end of season guess at his numbers I would expect something more like 70 rushing attempts and 80 targets. Maybe that is too low but with only one game to work from, it is hard for me to be more optimistic than that. I still expect Howard to be their primary RB. Theo RIddick did have 99 targets in 2015 and was averaging 6.7 targets per game last year before being injured. So if Cohen is going to be used in similar way, 100 targets certainly possible, I would just lean to something more conservative then this, until proven wrong. I would rather under project a unknown player than to over project for them.

80 targets is 5 targets per game, which is still a lot for a RB. Chris Thompson of Washington is another example of a COP receiving RB and the most targets he has had in a season is 62 (3.8 per game) Even Darren Sproles who is one of the best receiving RB in NFL history only had 100 targets twice. Otherwise he has had targets in the 70-90 range. I am really not comfortable with projecting that high of targets for Cohen based on the information I have right now.

The last time I looked at RB receiving averages, a RB averages 73% catch rate and about 7 yards per reception. Cohen may be better than average, but with no NFL sample size to base this on for him, I would just plug in average numbers there for now, until we have 3 or 4 weeks of data to work with and try to extrapolate from. FWIW I used average numbers for Kareem Hunt moving forward for much the same reason.

So 70 rushing attempts at 4.2 ypc is 294 rushing yards. 80 targets at 73% is 58 receptions at 7 ypc is 406 yards. That is 700 combined yards or 44 yards per game.

I dunno. Even being optimistic and giving Cohen 100 targets 73 receptions 511 yards receiving, he is still falling short of 1000 combined yards.

 

1 hour ago, steelwind said:

Thanks for this.  I can see your yard projections as his floor.  I spiked up his average target to 7 per game because he was being lined up as a WR.  And I project him to have plenty of check downs.  Glennon is like Alex Smith.

Do you guys not get points for returns? This seals the deal for me... 

Let's say he gets 300 punt return yards, granted that's about 1 fantasy point per game increase, but that's a handful of more times for him to make a big play. 

I always seemed to do well whenever I had WRs that returned punts... it was always a difference maker that by itself won me a few games. Having a RB in that role including a passing role, to me, has potential to be a difference maker. 

He could flame out, I agree... but I'd hate to not at least try. At least I can say I swung and missed. I'd hate to not even tried, been wrong, and lost my season because I didn't muster the cojones to give it a go. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

I believe the information I was going off of (20 touches) was from the Chicago Tribune. So Yes, it appears that I was off by 4, or the term "touches" was misused by whomever wrote the article. 

Thanks for the correction

Gotcha.  I didn't consider special teams work.

How much special teams work did Fournette, Hunt, Cook, McCaffrey and Montgomery have?  You don't need to check, point being that while the ST work is nice and definitely a point in Cohen's favor, I don't think it's directly comparable to rushing/receiving when considering fantasy impact.  

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27 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

Do you guys not get points for returns? This seals the deal for me... 

Let's say he gets 300 punt return yards, granted that's about 1 fantasy point per game increase, but that's a handful of more times for him to make a big play. 

I always seemed to do well whenever I had WRs that returned punts... it was always a difference maker that by itself won me a few games. Having a RB in that role including a passing role, to me, has potential to be a difference maker. 

He could flame out, I agree... but I'd hate to not at least try. At least I can say I swung and missed. I'd hate to not even tried, been wrong, and lost my season because I didn't muster the cojones to give it a go. 

No points for returns.  But that's okay.

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This is why I have Cohen projected to handle 100 rush and 100 targets.  Here is his play by play from week 1.  On 1st down he was used 8 times.  On 2nd down he was used 8 times.  On 3rd down he was used 1 time.  They are using him 1st and 2nd downs.  Means, they intend to use him as a key focal point of their offense along with Howard.

Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description

1 6:37 0 - 3 2nd-and-19 own 17 caught pass for 8 yards

1 3:40 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 34 caught pass for -3 yards

1 3:01 0 - 3 2nd-and-13 own 31 caught pass for 5 yards

1 1:34 0 - 3 2nd-and-10 opp 49 rushed for 15 yards (first down)

2 12:31 3 - 3 2nd-and-22 own 25 caught pass for 2 yards

2 3:55 3 - 10 2nd-and-7 own 28 rushed for 46 yards (first down)

2 1:52 3 - 10 1st-and-10 opp 15 rushed for 5 yards

3 8:50 10 - 10 3rd-and-4 opp 49 target of incomplete pass

3 2:04 10 - 13 1st-and-10 own 29 rushed for -3 yards

3 1:20 10 - 13 2nd-and-13 own 26 rushed for 3 yards

4 14:30 10 - 13 1st-and-20 own 45 caught pass for 7 yards

4 10:40 10 - 20 2nd-and-2 own 43 target of incomplete pass

4 9:55 10 - 20 1st-and-10 opp 35 target of incomplete pass

4 8:57 10 - 20 2nd-and-10 opp 30 caught pass for 5 yards

4 7:25 10 - 20 1st-and-10 opp 19 caught pass for 19 yards TOUCHDOWN

4 2:00 17 - 23 1st-and-10 own 39 caught pass for 4 yards

4 0:39 17 - 23 1st-and-10 opp 28 target of incomplete pass

Edited by steelwind

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Cohen has gone for 100% of free agent bidding bucks in all 4 leagues that I am in that waivers have ran so far. Many of those with multiple max bids. Just passing that along. 

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The one thing that makes me think that he could be more than just that one game flash guy is that Daniel Jeremiah is high on him and even tweeted before Week 1 games that he couldn't wait to watch Cohen. DJ is a former NFL scout turned analyst who is right more often than not.

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12 minutes ago, Ratbone said:

Cohen has gone for 100% of free agent bidding bucks in all 4 leagues that I am in that waivers have ran so far. Many of those with multiple max bids. Just passing that along. 

wow...I think he's a nice pickup but it's not as if the #1 RB is out for the season and he's the Larry Johnson in waiting.  I definitely think he's a good guy to add, there's definitely upside / talent and can help some rosters but even in the league that I added him he's probably my 4th/5th best back.  I think the frenzy has jumped the shark a bit.

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39 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Gotcha.  I didn't consider special teams work.

How much special teams work did Fournette, Hunt, Cook, McCaffrey and Montgomery have?  You don't need to check, point being that while the ST work is nice and definitely a point in Cohen's favor, I don't think it's directly comparable to rushing/receiving when considering fantasy impact.  

I would agree. But you're comparing a backup, situational RB to 4 RBs who have, for all intents and purposes, no competition and 1 who has aging Stewart to contend with. I guess maybe me specifically is coming across as if Cohen is going to be a stud like those 5 have the potential to be. I like him as a potential high end RB2- maybe closer with my post week 1 assessment of Ty Montgomery, but again Ty is used way more in the running game, and even if Howard goes down I'm not so sure Chicago gives Cohen his carries. 

Here's how I look at it... Chris Thompson is a FA in my league. He is bound to score 8-12 points weekly in my league. He could be considered a pretty "safe" flex or bye week option. I view Cohen in that capacity but x10 on play making ability. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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3 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

The one thing that makes me think that he could be more than just that one game flash guy is that Daniel Jeremiah is high on him and even tweeted before Week 1 games that he couldn't wait to watch Cohen. DJ is a former NFL scout turned analyst who is right more often than not.

FBG subs recognize Matt Waldman.  Who runs the weekly Gut Check column plus co hosted some podcasts with Sigmund Bloom, was very high on him too.

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/03/16/rsp-film-room-102-rb-tarik-cohen-and-why-rankings-suck-but-we-want-them-anyway/

Edited by steelwind

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