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Dynasty Watch - Chris Godwin WR Tampa Bay

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1 minute ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

WR1 in PPR.  11 points ahead of Mike Thomas.

Now he is. He's averaging over 20 points a game in .5 PPR.

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Back to that trade: The guy wants Godwin and Henry for Chubb? With K. Hunt coming back Week Nine or so. Forget that. 

See ya.

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Back to that trade: The guy wants Godwin and Henry for Chubb? With K. Hunt coming back Week Nine or so. Forget that. 

See ya.

Nope, no way I’m doing that. And I like Chubb a lot. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Back to that trade: The guy wants Godwin and Henry for Chubb? With K. Hunt coming back Week Nine or so. Forget that. 

See ya.

Godwin would be off the table if I were trading for Chubb

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Chris Godwin logged seven grabs for 61 yards on nine targets Sunday in the Buccaneers’ Week 9 loss to the Seahawks.

He largely took a backseat to Mike Evans, who went ballistic for the second week in a row (12-180-1 on 16 targets). But even with Evans going off, Godwin still brought plenty of firepower to Sunday's slugfest, particularly in the second half when he soaked up four-of-five targets from Jameis Winston. Both players spent their afternoons getting open at will, proving too much for the Seahawks' overmatched secondary. Going on three games without a touchdown, Godwin is due for another blow-up week. It could come against Arizona in Week 10. With Patrick Peterson a candidate to shadow Mike Evans in that game, Godwin should put on an absolute clinic in the slot.

Nov 3, 2019, 7:52 PM ET

 

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Chris Godwin caught 6-of-12 targets for 74 yards in the Bucs' Week 10 win over the Cardinals.

Godwin has now been held below 75 yards in three straight games, though he's drawn at least eight targets every time in the process. His usage isn't waning, he's just in a cold spell as Mike Evans goes nuts and variance runs its course. Godwin will remain a locked-in WR1 for next week's tough matchup with the Saints. Of note will be Marshon Lattimore's (thigh) health.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Mike Evans - 190 points so far this year. 

Chris Godwin - 182 points so far this year. 

Everybody wins!  

Evans is the number 2 and Godwin is the number 3 WR on the season so far. 

I guess there was enough to go around. Hopefully Winston sticks around. 

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

Mike Evans - 190 points so far this year. 

Chris Godwin - 182 points so far this year. 

Everybody wins!  

Evans is the number 2 and Godwin is the number 3 WR on the season so far. 

I guess there was enough to go around. Hopefully Winston sticks around. 

It doesn't feel like winning to my fantasy teams lately.

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1 hour ago, Shrugs said:

It doesn't feel like winning to my fantasy teams lately.

Ditto.  Traded for him three weeks ago and thought I stole him.  Boo.  

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3 hours ago, Shrugs said:

It doesn't feel like winning to my fantasy teams lately.

Consistency is a myth. You have the number 3 overall fantasy WR, hopefully have wins in the bank. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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2 hours ago, SCT said:

Ditto.  Traded for him three weeks ago and thought I stole him.  Boo.  

We must be brothers, i did the same exact thing.

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Godwin was bound to regress by XFP and OTD numbers. He was making the most out of his opportunities at a far greater rate than a replacement player, but it was still less opportunity to gain yards and score than Evans.

And I roster Godwin in my favorite league, so I've been waiting for this inevitability. 

Edited by rockaction
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15 hours ago, rockaction said:

Godwin was bound to regress by XFP and OTD numbers. He was making the most out of his opportunities at a far greater rate than a replacement player, but it was still less opportunity to gain yards and score than Evans.

And I roster Godwin in my favorite league, so I've been waiting for this inevitability. 

sold in one league now. May try selling in another. Just cant trust Jameis. The first month or so was fun but I worry this is the new norm. Still own him in 1 other league... but I have better depth there. 

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ROS who do you like more- Lockett or Godwin? 

IMO Lockett. I dont think Godwin will suck ROS but he is regressing to the mean a bit. 

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Would like Godwin a lot more this week if Lattimore was playing, as he would have shadowed Evans. But Godwin will still be solid ROS. Only thing missing has been touchdowns. Has gotten at least 8 targets for last 6 games. And love his playoff schedule : Week 15 Detroit (28th ranked pass defense) and Week 16 Houston (26th ranked pass defense).

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15 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

ROS who do you like more- Lockett or Godwin? 

IMO Lockett. I dont think Godwin will suck ROS but he is regressing to the mean a bit. 

I’ll still take Godwin. I think Gordon is going to be a thing in Seattle the next couple weeks, and you have DK coming on too. And Hollister commanding between 6-10 targets a week. Godwin really only has Mike siphoning targets, and we all know Jameis is going to continue flinging it. 

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39 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I’ll still take Godwin. I think Gordon is going to be a thing in Seattle the next couple weeks, and you have DK coming on too. And Hollister commanding between 6-10 targets a week. Godwin really only has Mike siphoning targets, and we all know Jameis is going to continue flinging it. 

Hope you're right. my trade was over turned so now I have Godwin again...

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hope you're right. my trade was over turned so now I have Godwin again...

Lockette for Godwin was overturned?

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32 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Lockette for Godwin was overturned?

I wont get into the details, because the commish is a poster here and will remain unnamed. it was a big trade I honestly wanted to do and felt good about, but ticked off the guys in 1st and 2nd. We were told pay 2020 fees or get kicked out. We instead traded back and won't be back next season (I felt it was a BS principle to set out of nowhere so I refused to pay). It's done with and we are both in the market for another dynasty league. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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23 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I wont get into the details, because the commish is a poster here and will remain unnamed. it was a big trade I honestly wanted to do and felt good about, but ticked off the guys in 1st and 2nd. We were told pay 2020 fees or get kicked out. We instead traded back and won't be back next season (I felt it was a BS principle to set out of nowhere so I refused to pay). It's done with and we are both in the market for another dynasty league. 

Should call out the commish here so people know not to join leagues he is running. Trades should only be vetoed if collusion is strongly suspected, which obviously wasn’t the case here.

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13 minutes ago, Shrugs said:

Should call out the commish here so people know not to join leagues he is running. Trades should only be vetoed if collusion is strongly suspected, which obviously wasn’t the case here.

Exactly. Sounds like they just got mad that another potential team may be contending for the crown this year. That’s kinda the name of the game in dynasty. Trades are the lifeblood. 

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35 minutes ago, Shrugs said:

Should call out the commish here so people know not to join leagues he is running. Trades should only be vetoed if collusion is strongly suspected, which obviously wasn’t the case here.

Commish thought it was, which I can honestly say was not (my word doesn't mean anything on here to you guys of course). I stand by my assessments and liked the guys I was trading for and disliked the guys I was trading away. Aside from Godwin... I like him but dont trust his situation.(Although I am going to keep track where I'd finish had the trade stood)

 

Regardless, back to Godwin! I'm now hoping I'm wrong about him and he goes nuts these last few weeks so I can beat the babies in the league!!!

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Commish thought it was, which I can honestly say was not (my word doesn't mean anything on here to you guys of course). I stand by my assessments and liked the guys I was trading for and disliked the guys I was trading away. Aside from Godwin... I like him but dont trust his situation.(Although I am going to keep track where I'd finish had the trade stood)

 

Regardless, back to Godwin! I'm now hoping I'm wrong about him and he goes nuts these last few weeks so I can beat the babies in the league!!!

I think you’re going to be happy you didn’t move him, especially looking at some of the teams he’s facing ROS.

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18 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

sold in one league now. May try selling in another. Just cant trust Jameis. The first month or so was fun but I worry this is the new norm. Still own him in 1 other league... but I have better depth there. 

Long term (which doesn't seem to help you as you won't be in that league next season) I don't see Jameis on the team next year.  He's just too turnover prone.  He'll be a backup somewhere.

 

I'll let you know if my dynasty league has any spots opening this summer, you seem like a good owner.

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Man, does this guy make doubters look like ninnies (they're not, it's just that he usually explodes the doubts) when he has a game or two that is "off." He's pure speed, a pure gatherer and catcher of the football. I absolutely have to figure out a league to get into and immediately make him a top priority.  

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58 minutes ago, Encumbrance said:

Man, does this guy make doubters look like ninnies (they're not, it's just that he usually explodes the doubts) when he has a game or two that is "off." He's pure speed, a pure gatherer and catcher of the football. I absolutely have to figure out a league to get into and immediately make him a top priority.  

The catch on the second TD today was ridiculous. He ranks right up there with the best hands in the game at the moment.

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Chris Godwin caught 7-of-9 targets for 91 yards in the Buccaneers’ Week 14 win over the Colts.

The Colts focused their entire secondary on Godwin after Mike Evans (hamstring) was ruled out shortly into the second quarter. Jameis Winston’s trusty slot WR still managed to make a handful of impressive plays, showing off his wild catch radius along with a good amount of after-the-catch goodness. Godwin will have bigger days, particularly if Evans if forced to miss time. Darius Slay and the Lions are up next in Week 15, but Godwin should manage to avoid the matchup for a good portion of the game from the friendly confines of the slot.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Chris Godwin (hamstring) won't return for Week 15 against the Lions.

Godwin pulled up limping mid-route in the third quarter and could barely make it off the field under his own power. He was promptly carted to the locker room, leaving Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson, and Ishmael Hyman as the Bucs' only available receivers. Scotty Miller (hamstring) was also ruled out after re-aggravating his hamstring injury following a 33-yard touchdown.

This was serious, no way he plays next week.

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Wow, Godwin down? That's horrible for people that rostered him and enjoyed watching him play.  

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22 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

This was serious, no way he plays next week.

Didn't see was this a non-contact injury like Evans?

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Chris Godwin caught 5-of-7 targets for 121 yards before being ruled out with a hamstring injury in Tampa Bay's Week 15 win over the Lions.

It was a non-contact injury suffered while running a route mid-third quarter. Godwin pulled up limp and was promptly carted to the locker room and ruled out minutes later. The third-year breakout was looked to often without Mike Evans (hamstring) in the lineup, recording chunk gains of 62, 38, and 20 yards en route to finishing with his sixth 100-yard performance of the year before leaving. Time will tell on Godwin's outlook, but coach Bruce Arians did ominously mention postgame that "it doesn't look good." It would not be surprising to see the 23-year-old held back in Tampa Bay's final two games to avoid any long-term damage in a lost season. The Bucs square off against the Texans in Week 16.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Thank you fur getting me to the ‘ship, Chris. Rest of the guys will have to step up. Phenomenal season. 

I want to talk with the Bucs conditioning coach. 3 WR hamstrings in 2 weeks. 

Edited by Judge Smails
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Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians admitted Chris Godwin's hamstring injury "doesn't look good."

Godwin was carted off after appearing to pull his hamstring in Sunday's Week 15 victory over the Lions. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport confirmed Monday that Godwin, who ranks second to Michael Thomas in receiving yards this season, is all but certain to miss Saturday's home matchup with Houston. Arians wondered if he's to blame for the team's sudden rash of injuries (Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are also among Tampa's walking wounded), worrying he's been working his receivers too hard at practice. Barring a roster move, the Buccaneers could be down to Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson and Ishmael Hyman at receiver when the Texans visit in Week 16.

SOURCE: Tampa Bay Times

Dec 16, 2019, 8:35 AM ET

 

 

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Chris Godwin (hamstring) has been ruled out for the Buccaneers' Week 16 matchup against the Texans.

Mike Evans (hamstring, IR), Scotty Miller (hamstring, IR) and Godwin are each out. Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson and Ishmael Hyman will work inside of three-WR sets. Fire up both Perriman and Watson as upside WR3s against the Texans' underwhelming secondary. Hyman isn't likely to have too large of a role considering coach Bruce Arians has already said the offense's RBs and TEs will be more involved than usual.

SOURCE: Scott Smith on Twitter

Dec 19, 2019, 12:12 PM ET

 

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Chris Godwin (hamstring) is out for Week 17 against the Falcons.

Godwin will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Thrust into a full-time role for the first time in his career, Godwin broke out for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns this season, achieving that impressive haul on a team-high 86 catches. With impending free agent Jameis Winston tentatively expected back in 2020 (the Bucs are expected to retain him on the franchise tag), Godwin should be in for another monster season in what will be the final year of his rookie deal.

SOURCE: Pewter Report on Twitter

Dec 27, 2019, 12:12 PM ET

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Gotta wonder -- and Arians wondered himself like I did before I spoke up -- if all the work didn't wear Godwin and Evans down. Lots of little bubble screens when runs would have sufficed in the game plan from what I watched. Lots of just hard hits coming out the slot. I remember he was questionable for the Rams game he went off in around Week Five or so. Something to watch with Godwin, Evans, and Arians in the upcoming year. Maybe as not much practice time or volume coming.

I think when the coach himself wonders aloud to the press about usage that things are going to inevitably change in some tangible form, from usage to personnel.

Edited by rockaction

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But what a great season average FF year for this guy, huh? WR2 overall in most leagues. It's too bad for those counting on him Wk 16, as he became a fixture to build around and/or trade target for a WR1 he was so solid throughout the year.

Great hands catcher, just sick all-around talent.

Edited by rockaction

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21 minutes ago, IheartGuinness said:

What's his keeper value? Do people see him as a top five WR next year, or do you think he'll regress? 

Regress a bit, frankly. It's hard to maintain that sort of prowess and volume. I don't see him duplicating what he did this year. Look at his second half, which was outstanding, but also a regression. Godwin outperformed his expected metrics given his volume by a lot. His touchdown rate given his opportunity and volume were sky high. Evans is still lead dog.

That said, I see him in the top 15 still, easily, and with wiggle room.

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Godwin is rated 22nd by PFF in XFP for RBs and WRs (expected fantasy points) and outperformed his expectations per game by +4.7 points per game, which is radically good, but unsustainable. He needs end zone volume and inside twenty volume to cement his status as a top ten guy.

According to ESPN Godwin is 59th in expected Offensive Touchdowns (OTD) with 121 looks. James White, for example, has more expected touchdowns. Godwin has nine TDs out of an expected four.

I knew the numbers in these two would point to regression candidate material (I've been tracking them all year) but these are a bit staggering. He's probably a standard deviation or maybe even two away from replacement-level number according to volume and opportunity (opportunity being where on the field he is when he gets his chance to touch the football).

Edited by rockaction

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10 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Godwin is rated 22nd by PFF in XFP for RBs and WRs (expected fantasy points) and outperformed his expectations per game by +4.7 points per game, which is radically good, but unsustainable. He needs end zone volume and inside twenty volume to cement his status as a top ten guy.

According to ESPN Godwin is 59th in expected Offensive Touchdowns (OTD) with 121 looks. James White, for example, has more expected touchdowns. Godwin has nine TDs out of an expected four.

I knew the numbers in these two would point to regression candidate material (I've been tracking them all year) but these are a bit staggering. He's probably a standard deviation or maybe even two away from replacement-level number according to volume and opportunity (opportunity being where on the field he is when he gets his chance to touch the football).

It will be very interesting to see where Evans and Godwin go in redraft next year. 

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51 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

It will be very interesting to see where Evans and Godwin go in redraft next year. 

Yeah, it will. And it depends what you like in your receivers. Godwin's floor this year was a five. At absolute worst against the Giants. That's the game that Evans had forty or so .5 PPR. So there were at least 45 points to go around, it's just who got them. And the year saw that. Lots of points in Tampa throwing the ball and Evans as boom/slight bust with Godwin as boom/steady Eddie.

Regression-wise though, Evans averaged 17 XFP a game, slightly above Godwin's 15 XFP. He was +.9 in FFP/game, so that's not too far off. Evans had 32 more XFP/year than Godwin. Evans was also 11th in OTD leaders among RB and WR to Godwin's aforementioned 59, having eight touchdowns. Of note: Evans had sixteen end zone looks. Sixteen. That's ridiculous. It was first in the NFL. That will likely regress, too.

But Evans looks like, if not in cumulative performance, the WR1 in Tampa still.

Edited by rockaction
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48 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, it will. And it depends what you like in your receivers. Godwin's floor this year was a five. At absolute worst against the Giants. That's the game that Evans had forty or so .5 PPR. So there were at least 45 points to go around, it's just who got them. And the year saw that. Lots of points in Tampa throwing the ball and Evans as boom/slight bust with Godwin as boom/steady Eddie.

Regression-wise though, Evans averaged 17 XFP a game, slightly above Godwin's 15 XFP. He was +.9 in FFP/game, so that's not too far off. Evans had 32 more XFP/year than Godwin. Evans was also 11th in OTD leaders among RB and WR to Godwin's aforementioned 59, having eight touchdowns. Of note: Evans had sixteen end zone looks. Sixteen. That's ridiculous. It was first in the NFL. That will likely regress, too.

But Evans looks like, if not in cumulative performance, the WR1 in Tampa still.

Evans should be among the league leaders in redzone looks. Dude is an absolute baller in contested throws. 

But yeah, probably won't be quite that high again. 

Best duo in the league. Diggs and Thielen are close. If only they had a better QB. 🤔

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

But what a great season average FF year for this guy, huh? WR2 overall in most leagues. It's too bad for those counting on him Wk 16, as he became a fixture to build around and/or trade target for a WR1 he was so solid throughout the year.

Great hands catcher, just sick all-around talent.

Traded for him midseason, one of the keys of getting me the championship.  Fun to watch.

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Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said signing Chris Godwin to an extension will be "high" on the team's list of offseason priorities.

As it should be. Finally thrust into a featured role after playing second banana to Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson in his first two seasons, Godwin's 2019 campaign was one for the ages. He finished third in receiving yards with 1,333 and also tied for fourth in touchdowns (nine) despite missing his final two games with a strained hamstring. Due a modest $768,500 in the final year of his rookie contract, Godwin should be in line for a sizable raise.

SOURCE: Scott Smith on Twitter

Dec 30, 2019, 12:27 PM ET

 

 

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