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Dynasty - So what is EZE worth now? (1 Viewer)

Hankmoody

Hankmoody

Footballguy
A couple of trades have gone down in the trade thread, and just saw someone comment they were offered EZE for Evans, which got me thinking - what's that risk worth now?  If there were a dynasty startup today, where does he end up?  The consensus tier 0 seems to be, in no particular order:

DJ
Bell
OJB
AB
Evans
Julio

That's where things start to get sticky and I think the next tier starts.  Can you give up one of those guys for Elliott?  Assume that they score similarly and are both starters and you have equal depth to swap in a flex at the other position.  Straight up, where is the value cutoff?

What about the next tier:

AJG
Cooper
Gordon
Michael Thomas
Gurley
Freeman

Straight up, who would you give for EZE?  If you owned Zeke, who would it take to get him from you?

 
In a dynasty startup I'd still consider Elliott strongly at 1.01

I own Elliott in a 3 keeper league, and David Johnson is probably the only player I would even think about.

Maturity is the only thing that concerns me about Elliott, but not enough (yet?) to stay away from him.

 
16 team ppr. Ive been offered him twice. Once for Evans straight up and once for both Fournette and McCaffrey. Rejected both. Both offers felt like pre suspension prices. His value has to be discounted imo. He screws up again and it could very well be a season. Also i offered Fournette, a late 1st and a top 10ish LBer for him and that was rejected.

 
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Hankmoody said:
  If you owned Zeke, who would it take to get him from you?
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I only own him in one league and since I have McFadden and Morris (and an otherwise very good lineup), I think I can survive fine until he gets back. I'm also willing to downplay the potential long term suspension risk in my mind, perhaps just so I do not make any stupid panic trades.

With that said OBJ would get it done and Evans would get strong consideration. Evans is already pretty close in value without this recent suspension. Outside of those guys (assuming no one would do DJ or Bell anyway) there would obviously be some packages I would consider but I would still be looking for full value so I doubt anything would get done.

 
I wouldn't discount him in my dynasty values. He will be back and he is a dying breed. Not too many workhorse RB left. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
16 team ppr. Ive been offered him twice. Once for Evans straight up and once for both Fournette and McCaffrey. Rejected both. Both offers felt like pre suspension prices. His value has to be discounted imo. He screws up again and it could very well be a season. Also i offered Fournette, a late 1st and a top 10ish LBer for him and that was rejected.
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Sounds like that Elliot owner was not looking for a viable exit but a golden parachute offer. 

I'm surprised people are saying they would not discount him for dynasty. For starters 6 games is obviously major for the here and now but I just don't see how people can discount the potential risk of another instance putting him out for the season if not for good.  

 
I still see LeVeon Bell ranked high in dynasty and he is hurt and/or suspended every year. I consider him a higher risk than Zeke.

 
I think there is a risk of being too sanguine about this.

Of course Elliott is a fabulous player in a fabulous position.

However the reality is that Elliott's behavior since being drafted strongly suggests he is a class A headcase and not the smartest tool in the shed.

He just needs to screw up once more and he risks "banishment". That is a pretty strong position for the league to take.

To not discount his value you basically have to be confident that he is never going to screw up again or do anything dumb again. Are you really sure of that? 

 
there is a very high risk now .... I'm starting to think this 6 games thing might stick and if so, one more incident and the league will say see, told you ... and it'll be a year ban

once for both Fournette and McCaffrey
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I'd have made that trade gladly

 
Stealthycat said:
there is a very high risk now .... I'm starting to think this 6 games thing might stick and if so, one more incident and the league will say see, told you ... and it'll be a year ban

I'd have made that trade gladly
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I read a portion of what was said to be the NFLs official statement regarding this, and it said if he has another domestic incident he could be banned for life....

*edit, it may have been an excerpt from the personal conduct policy. Am trying to find it

 
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Found the pic of the letter, but not a link to the document itself.

"Effective immediately, violations of the personal conduct policy regarding assault, battery, domestic violence or sexual assaults that involve physical force will be subject to suspension without pay of six games for a first offense, with consideration given to mitigating factors, as well as a longer suspension when circumstances warrant.

Among the circumstances that would merit a more severe penalty would be a prior incident before joining the NFL, or violence involving a weapon, choking, repeated striking, or when the act is committed against a pregnant woman, or in the presence of a child. A second offense will result in banishment from the NFL"

 
I think now is about the worst time to move him. I think if I were an owner in any of my dynos, id likely just hold him unless the offer was very good. Wait until he is back, has a couple good games, and move him later if you want.

Id need 2 top 20 dynasty assets at least for me to think about moving him right now.

 
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Hankmoody said:
If you had him, what would you take for him?
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Dont think i could move him. If i owned him i wouldn't be willing to let him go for less than a top 5 back, forcing me to eat the cost. If he finishes strong i would sell him for any top 20 skill player.

 
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Pwingles said:
I think now is about the worst time to move him. I think if I were an owner in any of my dynos, id likely just hold him unless the offer was very good. Wait until he is back, has a couple good games, and move him later if you want.

Id need 2 top 20 dynasty assets at least for me to think about moving him right now.
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Depends on your risk aversion.  I bet a bunch of Josh Gordon or Justin Blackmon owners wish they had taken that offer of Dez Bryant, or Antonio Brown, or whatever "that offer" they turned down was.

There's a whole lot to lose here, and some will want to cash out.  The question is for how much?  If you're getting 99 cents on the dollar I think everyone would do that.  And I think if the best offer is Sammy Watkins that's an easy pass.  The heart of the discussion though is "what's the breakeven on the risk profile?". 

 
I think now is about the worst time to move him.
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people said that about Blackmon and Gordon and Leaf and a bunch of other players that had value, fell into problem, fell hard, then harder ............. sometimes gotta cut losses

 
In a 12-team dynasty, through the rookie draft and restricted free agency I built a team that has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks. I lack a top-flight RB. The Elliott owner is stacked at RB. Before the suspension, I offered Mark Ingram and his pick of any of my WRs for Elliott. He said no. After the suspension, I emailed him to say the offer still stands. I haven't heard back. (I've made the same offer for Bell, but the owner is a Pittsburgh homer and won't deal him, and the David Johnson owner never got back to me.)

 
Stealthycat said:
people said that about Blackmon and Gordon and Leaf and a bunch of other players that had value, fell into problem, fell hard, then harder ............. sometimes gotta cut losses
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All guys with addiction issues.  This is behaviorial, so you'd think it's correctable.  Plus we haven't even heard Zeke's side yet.  Anyone trading Zeke now is just panicking and will regret it.

To answer the OP, DJ is the only one I'd trade Zeke for straight up and this point.  I'd maybe move him for a Jones/Beckham and a McCaffrey/Cook type trade but it would depend on the makeup of my team.  Top flight work horse RB's just don't come around very often any more.  Especially one as talented as Zeke and one that has the oline talent the Cowboys do.  I feel this way under the assumption the suspension will be upheld.

And yes Zeke at best is a knucklehead.

 
phandango said:
In a 12-team dynasty, through the rookie draft and restricted free agency I built a team that has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks. I lack a top-flight RB. The Elliott owner is stacked at RB. Before the suspension, I offered Mark Ingram and his pick of any of my WRs for Elliott. He said no. After the suspension, I emailed him to say the offer still stands. I haven't heard back. (I've made the same offer for Bell, but the owner is a Pittsburgh homer and won't deal him, and the David Johnson owner never got back to me.)
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If you built it through RFA then those WR's have contracts.  Are they salary cap dollars, or just years?  What are their lengths/values?  Saying you offered Mike Evans is a lot different than offering Mike Evans who is 2 years from hitting RFA and costing a mint to keep.

 
Some of these offers in here make me wonder. Didn't Zeke do this last July? Has he stayed out of trouble since then?

 
Hankmoody said:
If you built it through RFA then those WR's have contracts.  Are they salary cap dollars, or just years?  What are their lengths/values?  Saying you offered Mike Evans is a lot different than offering Mike Evans who is 2 years from hitting RFA and costing a mint to keep.
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Yes, the league is based on contract years. Evans and Cooper have 5 years left, AJ and Cooks have 4, Antonio Brown has 2. Zeke has 7 years. In our scoring system, Evans finished last year in a virtual tie with Jordy for second overall WR, only 0.3 points per game behind Beckham. Elliott was the second overall RB. Ingram (who was an RFA and can be now be assigned a contract of any length) was the eighth overall RB. Restricted free agency overwhelmingly favors the rights owner, particularly for top RFAs. Evans and Ingram is an extremely fair offer, and probably would be giving away too much in this league, but I have the depth and want a blue-chip RB.

 
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