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RalphMouth

What's The Earliest You Draft Rodgers ?

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12 team - 4 points per passing TD - 6 per rushing TD  - Not a Super Flex League

 

I have never taken a QB earlier than the 5th round but I'm seriously considering drafting him in the late second as our league

does a third round flip and my next pick would be in the late third. I hate who's available in the late second round as it seems

most players have some kind of question marks. Rodgers seems like a sure thing barring injury. 

 

 

Edited by RalphMouth

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1 minute ago, Robo35 said:

Probably 3rd rd but if its a 2 Qb or Superflex league possibly 1st definitely 2nd rd 

Yep. Finishing a 2Q Dyno league, I took him 1.09 and couldn't be happier.

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I'm having the same dilemma this year.  It seems like there's more question marks once you get past the top tier players than in years past.  It's more appealing for me to take Gronk or AR early, but I'd still be hard pressed taking a QB in the 2nd.  I'd wait and see if he falls to you in the 3rd.  If not, I'd make the tag team combo of Brees and Roethlisberger.  They're both amazing at home, and their schedules line up pretty well. You could match Rodgers and instead of a 2nd rounder it's more like a 5th and 10th.

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He'll go at the end of the 1st in both my 6pt TD leagues

 

I'll not be drafting him

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I've taken Rodgers in the 3rd in a couple of drafts and I think it's a mistake.  I don't like those teams as much and especially when Derek Carr can be had 7 rounds later, it doesn't make sense to burn that type of draft capital.  The drafts where I got Rodgers were in July so the 3rd round talent was murkier so I went with a sure thing.  But again, in hindsight, I wish I'd gone skill player.

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For 6 pt passing TDs I am absolutely considering Brady and Rodgers end of 1/early 2nd. I just think the two of them will be head and shoulders above the next group of QBs, whereas the RB and WRs available then have question marks.

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3 hours ago, RalphMouth said:

12 team - 4 points per passing TD - 6 per rushing TD  - Not a Super Flex League

 

I have never taken a QB earlier than the 5th round but I'm seriously considering drafting him in the late second as our league

does a third round flip and my next pick would be in the late third. I hate who's available in the late second round as it seems

most players have some kind of question marks. Rodgers seems like a sure thing barring injury. 

 

 

I am usually in the same boat as you. I never take a qb before round like 7. I just did a start up draft though. 14 team, 4 points per passing td and 6 for all others and Rodgers was staring me in the face at pick 3.12 or 40th overall and I had to take him. Felt like stealing.

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Took him twice in the fourth round of 12 team leagues. Seems nuts to pass him up when you consider how he's almost a sure thing and the crap littering the the third and fourth rounds. He will out score almost all QBs by 100 with the exception of one or two. Crazy value. People outsmart themselves with this wait on a qb philosophy.

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57 minutes ago, OnTheReg said:

For 6 pt passing TDs I am absolutely considering Brady and Rodgers end of 1/early 2nd. I just think the two of them will be head and shoulders above the next group of QBs, whereas the RB and WRs available then have question marks.

I took Rodgers at 2.3 in a 6 pt/pass TD league last year where I took Zeke at 1.10. Derided for going QB too early by many of the league members. Texted them all a picture of myself depositing the $5,000 check.

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Earliest I'd take him is first part of the 4th round.  No way I'm taking him in the first two rounds regardless if it's a 6 point TD league.  The difference is not enough to move Rodgers to the first round and I think it's a big mistake but go right ahead.

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56 minutes ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

Took him twice in the fourth round of 12 team leagues. Seems nuts to pass him up when you consider how he's almost a sure thing and the crap littering the the third and fourth rounds. He will out score almost all QBs by 100 with the exception of one or two. Crazy value. People outsmart themselves with this wait on a qb philosophy.

They don't outsmart themselves at all.  I think it's actually been a pretty proven strategy waiting on QBs.  To wait on a QB doesn't necessarily mean you have to wait until the 8th round, it just means you don't have to take one in the first couple rounds.  To take a QB in the first couple rounds is generally foolish and I believe there is plenty of data to back it up.

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18 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Earliest I'd take him is first part of the 4th round.  No way I'm taking him in the first two rounds regardless if it's a 6 point TD league.  The difference is not enough to move Rodgers to the first round and I think it's a big mistake but go right ahead.

The difference might be 100 points I think that's absolutely a big enough gap. 

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Early round 3 seems about right. For all of those that claim to be able to find a mid round QB that comes close- that may be true but you have to hit on the right guy. Rodgers is just so consistent in any format, he's as close as you can get to a sure thing. There is a lot worse you can do with having a RB, WR, Rodgers troika to start your draft. 

To me- give me the safe, consistent scorers at the top of the draft. There's plenty of upside to mine in the back half on nearly any draft in any format. You may not win your league based upon your early round selections, but you can certainly lose it.

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1 hour ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

Took him twice in the fourth round of 12 team leagues. Seems nuts to pass him up when you consider how he's almost a sure thing and the crap littering the the third and fourth rounds. He will out score almost all QBs by 100 with the exception of one or two. Crazy value. People outsmart themselves with this wait on a qb philosophy.

There's an element of truth to this which is why I took Rodgers in the 3rd in two drafts.  I won't know for sure until the season ends.  Essentially though, if you hit on your mid/late round picks (the guys who will start at a skill position that you pass up for Rodgers) then the pick is most def worth it, assuming Rodgers remains healthy and does his thing.  The challenge is that when I compare my non-Rodgers teams to my Rodgers teams, I like the non-Rodgers teams better.  Its preseason though and we all don't know SHEITE yet.

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30 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

They don't outsmart themselves at all.  I think it's actually been a pretty proven strategy waiting on QBs.  To wait on a QB doesn't necessarily mean you have to wait until the 8th round, it just means you don't have to take one in the first couple rounds.  To take a QB in the first couple rounds is generally foolish and I believe there is plenty of data to back it up.

I think we agree. I'm not taking him round two or even three. But 4? Hell yeah with what's available there it's a no-brainier. Brady too,for that matter.

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42 minutes ago, OnTheReg said:

The difference might be 100 points I think that's absolutely a big enough gap. 

LOL  Between who?  It's not likely he's going to score 100 more points than the 4th QB who could be had quite a bit later.

For the stats that I have projected for my 6 point QB league the 100 point difference is the QB15.  I'm not starting the QB15 in my league for the season.

In a 6 point QB league it can change the order of QBs but it shouldn't really change which rounds you're drafting your QB in.

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

LOL  Between who?  It's not likely he's going to score 100 more points than the 4th QB who could be had quite a bit later.

For the stats that I have projected for my 6 point QB league the 100 point difference is the QB15.  I'm not starting the QB15 in my league for the season.

In a 6 point QB league it can change the order of QBs but it shouldn't really change which rounds you're drafting your QB in.

In 2016 in my league the drop from QB1 (Ryan) to QB5 Luck was 105 points, 80 points more than QB4 (Cousins).

Edited by OnTheReg

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Here's the reality of it all, drafting a great QB, RB or WR can help get you to the playoffs but only catching those few special players during the playoffs will help you win a championship.  It seems every year one of the top QBs was a reason for a playoff loss like Rodgers in week 15, Brees in week 14, Cousins in week 15, Dak in week 14 and Carr in weeks 14 and 15.  That's 5 of the top 7 QBs last year that really let teams down during the playoffs.  That's also just the nature of fantasy football though.

I really thing that there are a lot of QBs that can help get you to the playoffs, it's just a matter of getting the right one when you're in the playoffs.

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For reference, here's a team where I drafted Rodgers in the 3rd.  I completed this draft in late July and had the 1.01 pick. 

QB: Aaron Rodgers (3)

RB1: David Johnson (1)

RB2: Dalvin Cook (4)

WR1: Davante Parker (6)

WR2: Randall Cobb (7)

TE1: Rob Gronkowski (2)

Flex1:Joe Mixon (5)

Flex2: Derrick Henry (8) / Jeremy Maclin (9) / Corey Coleman (11)

 

I'll be sure to post the rest of my teams and give status updates on all of my waiver wire moves.

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10 hours ago, OnTheReg said:

In 2016 in my league the drop from QB1 (Ryan) to QB5 Luck was 105 points, 80 points more than QB4 (Cousins).

So it wasn't Rodgers that year?  But I thought he was a lock to do it every year like most are assuming here?  I'm not trying to be a pain here but some are acting like Rodgers can't fail but we've seen it plenty times before.  He's not a lock to finish that far ahead of everyone else regardless of 4 points or 6 points for TDs.  With QBs it seems like anyone of those top 5 guys could do it yet the rest of them are quite a but cheaper so I think I'll take my chances with them.

Edited by Hawkeye21
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1 hour ago, Ack88 said:

Early round 3 seems about right. For all of those that claim to be able to find a mid round QB that comes close- that may be true but you have to hit on the right guy. Rodgers is just so consistent in any format, he's as close as you can get to a sure thing. There is a lot worse you can do with having a RB, WR, Rodgers troika to start your draft. 

To me- give me the safe, consistent scorers at the top of the draft. There's plenty of upside to mine in the back half on nearly any draft in any format. You may not win your league based upon your early round selections, but you can certainly lose it.

I disagree with your last sentence. I have whiffed on my first 3 picks before and won leagues and I am sure many others in here have as well. 

Edited by msudaisy26

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9 hours ago, msudaisy26 said:

I disagree with your last sentence. I have whiffed on my first 3 picks before and won leagues and I am sure many others in here have as well. 

I would be curious to see an example as I've never been able to overcome a poor top of a draft.

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In standard leagues I would draft him at the end of the 1st, but I don't have to. I wait for the end of the second or third because he's usually still there.

Edited by cloppbeast

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13 hours ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I took Rodgers at 2.3 in a 6 pt/pass TD league last year where I took Zeke at 1.10. Derided for going QB too early by many of the league members. Texted them all a picture of myself depositing the $5,000 check.

Similar situation.  I pick 6 overall and then 19.

Do I consider him 19 in this setting?

QB-RB-WR-TE-FLEX-FLEX-K-D  (4 bench)

I've been mocking Gronk at 2.7 to myself. I could try with a QB.

6 PER TD - Bonus 50+

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11 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

So it wasn't Rodgers that year?  But I thought he was a lock to do it every year like most are assuming here?  I'm not trying to be a pain here but some are acting like Rodgers can't fail but we've seen it plenty times before.  He's not a lock to finish that far ahead of everyone else regardless of 4 points or 6 points for TDs.  With QBs it seems like anyone of those top 5 guys could do it yet the rest of them are quite a but cheaper so I think I'll take my chances with them.

He's been either QB1 or QB2 for something like 6 of the last 7 years.  He's as safe a pick as you can make.

Rosters and scoring make a big difference when it comes to QB.  The league I mentioned earlier that I won last year starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE with no TE required and no flex.  All TDs 6 points, 1 pt/20 yards rushing/receiving and 1 pt/50 yards passing, no PPR.  In that format, a top QB can make an enormous difference week to week.  Not only is it TD heavy, but with fewer starters each week, a big game from a QB can win you the week VERY easily.  Draft Dominator has both Rodgers and Brady listed among the top 6 picks overall by VBD.

Now, while it's true that you can generate some decent QB production with a later pick/picks, you can't replace a guy that has two scores every week and often puts up 3 or 4.  That's so hard to overcome in a TD-heavy format with fewer active spots.  So, it's really very much league-dependent whether the "wait on QB" strategy is effective or not.  I've drafted Rodgers twice in that league in the first 20 picks - won $5G once and the other time, I led the league in total points and lost in the semi-finals.  Drafting a sure-fire stud QB early is a very viable strategy there.  However, in a 4 pt passing TD league with PPR and a flex like my work league, I wouldn't touch a QB until mid-third at the very earliest.  Last year, I got Brees at 5.2 and got QB3 production while still getting 4 starting RB/WRs first.

Bottom line : it all depends on the rules.  There's no slam-dunk strategy.

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1 minute ago, Gottabesweet said:

Similar situation.  I pick 6 overall and then 19.

Do I consider him 19 in this setting?

QB-RB-WR-TE-FLEX-FLEX-K-D  (4 bench)

I've been mocking Gronk at 2.7 to myself. I could try with a QB.

6 PER TD - Bonus 50+

I would absolutely consider him at 19 in that format, if it's non-PPR.

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2 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I would absolutely consider him at 19 in that format, if it's non-PPR.

It's PPR it's just a weird system it's all about acquiring as many studs as possible, Much flexibility.

Likely rolling out 1RB to 3WR a week.  Deciding when to take TE/QB is huge in this league.

Was thinking a McCoy, Gronk, D-Thomas, Fitzgerald, M. Bryant  start.

 

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7 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

He's been either QB1 or QB2 for something like 6 of the last 7 years.  He's as safe a pick as you can make.

Rosters and scoring make a big difference when it comes to QB.  The league I mentioned earlier that I won last year starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE with no TE required and no flex.  All TDs 6 points, 1 pt/20 yards rushing/receiving and 1 pt/50 yards passing, no PPR.  In that format, a top QB can make an enormous difference week to week.  Not only is it TD heavy, but with fewer starters each week, a big game from a QB can win you the week VERY easily.  Draft Dominator has both Rodgers and Brady listed among the top 6 picks overall by VBD.

Now, while it's true that you can generate some decent QB production with a later pick/picks, you can't replace a guy that has two scores every week and often puts up 3 or 4.  That's so hard to overcome in a TD-heavy format with fewer active spots.  So, it's really very much league-dependent whether the "wait on QB" strategy is effective or not.  I've drafted Rodgers twice in that league in the first 20 picks - won $5G once and the other time, I led the league in total points and lost in the semi-finals.  Drafting a sure-fire stud QB early is a very viable strategy there.  However, in a 4 pt passing TD league with PPR and a flex like my work league, I wouldn't touch a QB until mid-third at the very earliest.  Last year, I got Brees at 5.2 and got QB3 production while still getting 4 starting RB/WRs first.

Bottom line : it all depends on the rules.  There's no slam-dunk strategy.

You're correct in saying that Rodgers is consistently finishing at the top of QBs but so is Brees and Brady.  The huge difference is that you can get Brees in the 4th round.  Brady tends to go shortly after Rodgers in the third round.  If lots of points and consistency is your criteria then it seems Brees makes the most sense because you can get three great players before him yet.

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I've got a 12 team standard redraft coming up and I have had this swimming around in my head.  I have the 11th draft slot.  Some of the league owners like to grab Rodgers/Brady/Brees very early so there is a good chance he may not even be there at 11 but if he is there at the turn in to the 2nd round then I'd probably have to pull the trigger and get him.  In this league we only have 4 wavier wire periods during the season, that makes me think getting a stud sure fire thing at QB in the 1st or 2nd wouldn't be such a bad thing.

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2 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

It's PPR it's just a weird system it's all about acquiring as many studs as possible, Much flexibility.

Likely rolling out 1RB to 3WR a week.  Deciding when to take TE/QB is huge in this league.

Was thinking a McCoy, Gronk, D-Thomas, Fitzgerald, M. Bryant  start.

 

In PPR, QBs have less relative value compared to the other positions.  That's what I think people miss (or at least, have a different opinion on) when it comes to the 6 pt pass TD vs 4 point pass TD debate.  Most people claim the difference in TD value doesn't change the QB draft board and while I agree to some extent that it doesn't change where you value QBs relative to one another, it definitely changes how I value the QB position relative to the other positions, and as such, in my overall rankings. To wit :

You have Andy Dalton as your QB and your opponent has Rodgers.  Dalton goes for 220 yards and a TD.  Rodgers has 220 and 4 TDs.  In a 4 pt/passingTD league, you need to make up a 12 point deficit from your other positions.  In a 6 pt TD league, you need to make up 18.  In a PPR league, it's not as big a deal, 2 additional catches from each receiver closes that gap. But in a TD-heavy format, that means you need an extra touchdown from someone just to make up the difference that the extra 2 points per TD gave your opponent.

In my TD-heavy league, scores of games are usually in the 60s/70s due to fewer starters and lower yardage scoring, plus no PPR.  An 18 point deficit at one position is monstrous, it represents probably 25% or more of your weekly scoring.  In my other (PPR performance, 4 pt pass TD) league, scores are often in the 130s-150s. A 12 point difference at one position there represents more like 8-9% of your weekly score.  The difference between <10% of your points and >25% is gargantuan and really is the only factor that dictates when you should draft a stud QB.

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

You're correct in saying that Rodgers is consistently finishing at the top of QBs but so is Brees and Brady.  The huge difference is that you can get Brees in the 4th round.  Brady tends to go shortly after Rodgers in the third round.  If lots of points and consistency is your criteria then it seems Brees makes the most sense because you can get three great players before him yet.

Except that if you play in this format, the owners know how valuable QBs are.  They don't follow "standard FBG scoring" ADP.  Absolutely no chance on Earth that Brees will be available in the 4th round.  By then, you're looking at QB6-7 at best.  Unless you strike gold like drafting Ryan last year at around QB10, you're going to be operating at a deficit against the Rodgers owner almost every week.

If I knew Brees would be there in the 4th round, I wouldn't even consider Rodgers in the first two rounds, but I know he won't be.  So again, it's all about the league's scoring and roster rules.  If you play in a league like the one I described where QBs score far more aggregate points than players at any other position AND you're drafting with guppies that don't understand the scoring, then yeah, wait for sure.

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5 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

In PPR, QBs have less relative value compared to the other positions.  That's what I think people miss (or at least, have a different opinion on) when it comes to the 6 pt pass TD vs 4 point pass TD debate.  Most people claim the difference in TD value doesn't change the QB draft board and while I agree to some extent that it doesn't change where you value QBs relative to one another, it definitely changes how I value the QB position relative to the other positions, and as such, in my overall rankings. To wit :

You have Andy Dalton as your QB and your opponent has Rodgers.  Dalton goes for 220 yards and a TD.  Rodgers has 220 and 4 TDs.  In a 4 pt/passingTD league, you need to make up a 12 point deficit from your other positions.  In a 6 pt TD league, you need to make up 18.  In a PPR league, it's not as big a deal, 2 additional catches from each receiver closes that gap. But in a TD-heavy format, that means you need an extra touchdown from someone just to make up the difference that the extra 2 points per TD gave your opponent.

In my TD-heavy league, scores of games are usually in the 60s/70s due to fewer starters and lower yardage scoring, plus no PPR.  An 18 point deficit at one position is monstrous, it represents probably 25% or more of your weekly scoring.  In my other (PPR performance, 4 pt pass TD) league, scores are often in the 130s-150s. A 12 point difference at one position there represents more like 8-9% of your weekly score.  The difference between <10% of your points and >25% is gargantuan and really is the only factor that dictates when you should draft a stud QB.

Great post! With smaller lineups as well 8 starters a decent QB or TE is an advantage.  We are 6 per TD but PPR and 1 per 25 passing. With a bonus for length.  I guess I could wait and end up with Rivers or Eli in the QB 10-14 range

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7 minutes ago, CentralPA said:

I've got a 12 team standard redraft coming up and I have had this swimming around in my head.  I have the 11th draft slot.  Some of the league owners like to grab Rodgers/Brady/Brees very early so there is a good chance he may not even be there at 11 but if he is there at the turn in to the 2nd round then I'd probably have to pull the trigger and get him.  In this league we only have 4 wavier wire periods during the season, that makes me think getting a stud sure fire thing at QB in the 1st or 2nd wouldn't be such a bad thing.

I might actually counter and say having fewer waiver periods might make me somewhat less likely to draft a QB early.  Going back again to the example I referenced above about the league I won last year, my draft went :

1.10 - E. Elliott

2.3 - A. Rodgers

3.10 - K. Allen

4.3 - J. Maclin

5.10 - D. Murray

6.3 - E. Sanders

 

With only 4 waiver periods, I might have been sunk.  As you can see, my receivers were dog #### with Allen going down in week 1 and Maclin laying a giant ostrich egg all season long.  I was absolutely set at QB and RB, but since Allen went down so early and Maclin looked like crap so early, I was able to mine the wire early in the year and spend a significant chunk of change on Mike Thomas and Davante Adams, who were either undrafted or dropped.  Had I not been able to do that while owners were still tethered to their draft picks, I wouldn't have won.  I was cycling through WW wideouts very early on, but if either Thomas or Adams had broken out before I could have put a claim on them, the competition for their services would have been FAR more fierce and I wouldn't have been able to make hay on the wire.  You rarely get a QB off the wire that's going to win you games.

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3 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Except that if you play in this format, the owners know how valuable QBs are.  They don't follow "standard FBG scoring" ADP.  Absolutely no chance on Earth that Brees will be available in the 4th round.  By then, you're looking at QB6-7 at best.  Unless you strike gold like drafting Ryan last year at around QB10, you're going to be operating at a deficit against the Rodgers owner almost every week.

If I knew Brees would be there in the 4th round, I wouldn't even consider Rodgers in the first two rounds, but I know he won't be.  So again, it's all about the league's scoring and roster rules.  If you play in a league like the one I described where QBs score far more aggregate points than players at any other position AND you're drafting with guppies that don't understand the scoring, then yeah, wait for sure.

Exactly the only place that QB's aren't valued seems to be mocks.  My leagues casual and competitive they are all gone a round to round and a half earlier.

BTW - My DD settings:

Rodgers now climbs to 16

Brady 19

Brees 35

Luck 40

Ryan 48

Mariota 51

Wilson 59

Winston 84

Big Ben 85

Newton 90

Cousins 95

Rivers 96

Carr 98

Prescott 100

Dalton 102

Manning 105

Taylor 109

Stafford 114

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7 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

In PPR, QBs have less relative value compared to the other positions.  That's what I think people miss (or at least, have a different opinion on) when it comes to the 6 pt pass TD vs 4 point pass TD debate.  Most people claim the difference in TD value doesn't change the QB draft board and while I agree to some extent that it doesn't change where you value QBs relative to one another, it definitely changes how I value the QB position relative to the other positions, and as such, in my overall rankings. To wit :

You have Andy Dalton as your QB and your opponent has Rodgers.  Dalton goes for 220 yards and a TD.  Rodgers has 220 and 4 TDs.  In a 4 pt/passingTD league, you need to make up a 12 point deficit from your other positions.  In a 6 pt TD league, you need to make up 18.  In a PPR league, it's not as big a deal, 2 additional catches from each receiver closes that gap. But in a TD-heavy format, that means you need an extra touchdown from someone just to make up the difference that the extra 2 points per TD gave your opponent.

In my TD-heavy league, scores of games are usually in the 60s/70s due to fewer starters and lower yardage scoring, plus no PPR.  An 18 point deficit at one position is monstrous, it represents probably 25% or more of your weekly scoring.  In my other (PPR performance, 4 pt pass TD) league, scores are often in the 130s-150s. A 12 point difference at one position there represents more like 8-9% of your weekly score.  The difference between <10% of your points and >25% is gargantuan and really is the only factor that dictates when you should draft a stud QB.

I'm in a similar old school TD heavy league. Tweaked a bit for distance scores and yardage milestones,. The QB makes a huge difference. Sure, you might luck into a 2016 Matt Ryan later, but I do like to lock down a top tier QB like Rodgers earlier than most. All sorts of ways to win, but that one has worked for me. QBs score far and away the largest share of the teams total points in this particular format. Being stuck with bottom half scoring QBs puts you in a hole and you really need to be right on the WR/RBs drafted early. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

You're correct in saying that Rodgers is consistently finishing at the top of QBs but so is Brees and Brady.  The huge difference is that you can get Brees in the 4th round.  Brady tends to go shortly after Rodgers in the third round.  If lots of points and consistency is your criteria then it seems Brees makes the most sense because you can get three great players before him yet.

Brees is in the most danger of falling off the cliff out of those three based on some signs he showed last year. I'm not saying it will happen but that risk is built into his price.

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18 hours ago, Robo35 said:

Probably 3rd rd but if its a 2 Qb or Superflex league possibly 1st definitely 2nd rd 

Just had a 2QB draft this past Saturday (start 2QB/2RB/2WR/2TE/1RB-WR-TE flex) and Rodgers went 1.04.

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21 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

I'm in a similar old school TD heavy league. Tweaked a bit for distance scores and yardage milestones,. The QB makes a huge difference. Sure, you might luck into a 2016 Matt Ryan later, but I do like to lock down a top tier QB like Rodgers earlier than most. All sorts of ways to win, but that one has worked for me. QBs score far and away the largest share of the teams total points in this particular format. Being stuck with bottom half scoring QBs puts you in a hole and you really need to be right on the WR/RBs drafted early. 

 

Exactly.  And in such a format, there are typically only a small handful of guys that you can bank on to give you elite QB scoring.  I'd argue that this year, that list is two names long : Rodgers/Brady.  Brees is up there, but not the slam dunk he once was, and Brady is 40.  When the list of elite options is that small, if you don't draft one of those guys in the first two rounds, you might as well wait, because the difference from QB3 or 4 to QB 12 is probably not going to be that big, and which guys finish where is a very inexact science.  That only makes Rodgers more valuable as you're virtually assured of a top 2 finish at the position - he doesn't really have much you can point to that would signal an impending dropoff.

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37 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I might actually counter and say having fewer waiver periods might make me somewhat less likely to draft a QB early.  Going back again to the example I referenced above about the league I won last year, my draft went :

1.10 - E. Elliott

2.3 - A. Rodgers

3.10 - K. Allen

4.3 - J. Maclin

5.10 - D. Murray

6.3 - E. Sanders

 

With only 4 waiver periods, I might have been sunk.  As you can see, my receivers were dog #### with Allen going down in week 1 and Maclin laying a giant ostrich egg all season long.  I was absolutely set at QB and RB, but since Allen went down so early and Maclin looked like crap so early, I was able to mine the wire early in the year and spend a significant chunk of change on Mike Thomas and Davante Adams, who were either undrafted or dropped.  Had I not been able to do that while owners were still tethered to their draft picks, I wouldn't have won.  I was cycling through WW wideouts very early on, but if either Thomas or Adams had broken out before I could have put a claim on them, the competition for their services would have been FAR more fierce and I wouldn't have been able to make hay on the wire.  You rarely get a QB off the wire that's going to win you games.

OK, I totally get where you are going with that.  Pending on what is there for me (Gronk, Jordy, maybe McCoy, etc) I will probably pass on QB the first two rounds and load up on skill position players.  Still....not even at 2.02?  :unsure:

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Brees is in the most danger of falling off the cliff out of those three based on some signs he showed last year. I'm not saying it will happen but that risk is built into his price.

What signs would those be?

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4 minutes ago, mistersuits said:

What signs would those be?

His passes looked more wobbly and he was pretty poor on the road - I'm not saying it will happen this season, just that he's 39 so it's coming eventually.

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5 hours ago, Ack88 said:

I would be curious to see an example as I've never been able to overcome a poor top of a draft.

2015 here was my draft

1.08 - Dez Bryant 30 catches 400 yards and 3 tds hurt most of the year

2.07 - Jeremy Hill  almost 240 touches 850 yards the 11 tds were nice, but was pretty much unstartable after week 3.

3.08 - Joseph Randle had one good game against the Falcons

4.07 - Hopkins great pick

5.08 - another whiff with Andre Ellington

From here out I killed the draft

6.07 Allen Robinson

7.08 Eifert

8.07 Jarvis Landry

9.08 Cam Newton

10.07 Michael Floyd

11.08 David Johnson

12.07 Doug Baldwin

13.08 Bortles

then grabbed McFadden late, and the rest is history.

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16 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

LOL  Between who?  It's not likely he's going to score 100 more points than the 4th QB who could be had quite a bit later.

For the stats that I have projected for my 6 point QB league the 100 point difference is the QB15.  I'm not starting the QB15 in my league for the season.

In a 6 point QB league it can change the order of QBs but it shouldn't really change which rounds you're drafting your QB in.

Right, but good luck guessing who that'll be.  There are 10 guys you're taking swings at.  Say you grab two of them - 25% chance of maybe getting within 80 points?

Those are projections, not sure how they are relevant.  I am using actual results from 2016.

Edited by Hankmoody

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2 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Right, but good luck guessing who that'll be.  There are 10 guys you're taking swings at.  Say you grab two of them - 25% chance of maybe getting within 80 points?

And what are your settings?  In a 6 TD league I am seeing Rodgers at 485 and Cousins #5 at 380.

My DD with 6 per is

Rodgers 430 with 462 upside

Ryan QB 5 -   384 with 426 upside.

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59 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Right, but good luck guessing who that'll be.  There are 10 guys you're taking swings at.  Say you grab two of them - 25% chance of maybe getting within 80 points?

And what are your settings?  In a 6 TD league I am seeing Rodgers at 485 and Cousins #5 at 380.

I was curious how my one 6 point TD league finished last year.  Rodgers finished the season as the top QB with 462 points.  Ryan finished next with 445 then Brees with 436.  Its a full point PPR league that awards 10 bonus points for over 400 passing yards, 150 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards.  Neither of those top 3 QBs were on the the top 7 finishing teams.  .  The teams that did well had great RBs and WRs.  Rodgers was drafted at 2.04 last year in this league.  Maybe it was a fluke, I don't know

I just looked back another year and saw the same thing and this was a year that league's QB scoring settings were crazy.  Wilson had 630 points.  Rodgers was not on a top team and the other top teams just had random QBs.  Once again the guys who won had great RBs and WRs.

I had to go back to 2014 to find a team that had Rodgers on their team and finished in the top 3, he finished 3rd.  He also had Antonio Brown and Marshawn Lynch on his team.  Once again this year's top teams had great RBs and WRs.  The second place guy had Cutler as his QB to finish the season.

Edited by Hawkeye21

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

My DD with 6 per is

Rodgers 430 with 462 upside

Ryan QB 5 -   384 with 426 upside.

Those are projections, not sure how they are relevant.  I am using actual results from 2016.

Edited by Hankmoody

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13 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I was curious how my one 6 point TD league finished last year.  Rodgers finished the season as the top QB with 462 points.  Ryan finished next with 445 then Brees with 436. 

And what was the #5 finisher?

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