My rankings for rookies is based on a lot of different factors and is intended for the players first three seasons in the league. I generally don't change them much until at least two seasons from the ranking have been played.
If your question is for this year (redraft) as SSND has answered this, I don't really do it that way. I have factored early opportunity into these rankings, and that is important, but not the only emphasis for these rankings which do have a longer view.
The following are my tier two (RB 13-24 for fantasy) upside RB
Kareem Hunt - Ware is a good player and could prevent Hunt from getting the opportunity. Hunt is a talented player however that I expect to earn at least some playing time even if Ware is playing well.
D'Onta Foreman - The Texans have stated that they will reduce Lamar Millers workload this season and I think Foreman is a better player than Alfred Blue. I see Foreman in a time share with Miller this year and goal line opportunities. Possible Foreman beats out Miller in time as well.
Alvin Kamara - Currently behind two very good RB with the Saints. This ranking is based more on the opportunity I see Kamara having in 2018 than this year.
Samaje Perine - I have been all over the place as far as my view of Perine. I love how he looked in 2014 but he hasn't played as well since then. So far things are not sounding good for him in training camp and preseason. I have some serious doubts about Perine returning to 2014 form, but if he does I think he can be a very good feature RB.
Jamaal Williams - I see him as being the best bet to earn the Eddie Lacy role in the Packers offense. So far reports are lining up with the prediction being the most accurate of my predictions. I also like Aaron Jones who the Packers drafted this year but I see him as filling a James Starks COP type role and in more direct competition with Montgomery for playing time, while Williams has the between the tackles early down role in the offense more similar to how they have used Lacy in the past. Jones would be competition for Williams for this role as well. So far Williams seems to be winning that job as expected.
Marlon Mack - A talented RB who has issues with ball security and who I don't like some of the decisions he makes as a runner. He showed a tendency to try to reverse field too often that I don't see working at the pro level. He does have good burst and speed to get away with this at times at the college level. Great opportunity for him with the Colts this season or next as Frank Gore is now 34 years old. I just think Mack needs to tear down and rebuild his playing style to be successful in the NFL and not sure if he can do that or not. Otherwise I would be a lot higher on him because the opportunity is juicy. Luck may not start the season though and all Colts players may see a downgrade until he is back healthy.
Donnell Pumphrey - I didn't learn about this player until somewhat late in the evaluation process (April 2017) but I really loved what I saw of his play. He does everything you want a RB to do except pass block and move a pile. He has no power to his game so may always be relegated to a COP role. I can see him becoming a Darren Sproles/Duke Johnson/Theo Riddick type of COP though that can be very valuable in PPR leagues.
The following I have graded as tier 3 (RB 25-36) upside RB
Joe Williams - He has some really nice speed and change of direction ability. Inconsistent player who was behind Devontae Booker in Utah until last season. I believe he transferred to Utah from another school due to off the field issues or something. I forget the details about that at the moment. Looks great in his game against UCLA last season but that game also somewhat of an outlier (and UCLA made a lot of RB look very good last year). Tons of hype about this guy possibly being the heir for feature RB role with the 49ers this spring that never made much sense to me. Showed good speed to make things happen in most recent preseason game, but this was also against 3rd string defense. He played after UDFA Matt Breida and Carlos Hyde who I expect to be the starter in 2017. This guy has a chance to be the top RB for the 49ers in 2018 though if they do not retain Carlos Hyde. I do like his upside a bit more than Breida. The reason he isn't a tier two RB for me is because I don't have a lot of confidence in him panning out as a starter. But if he does play like he did in that UCLA game as a pro then he likely should be a tier two guy. He is my top ranked tier 3 RB as a way of showing he is on the borderline. Mack and Pumphrey are kind of on the borderline of the last tier two guys for me and maybe their upside is only RB 3's for fantasy.
James Conner - I didn't watch him until after the NFL draft and I still consider my view about him to be incomplete. He looked like a much better player in 2016 than in his earlier games, which is the opposite of what people were telling me about him (I thought). Makes me wonder why people kept telling me to watch his earlier games instead of his most recent ones? Powerful runner with good ball security and overall skill. Lacks top end speed and burst but did seem to improve in the last area in 2016. Could possibly benefit from playing at a lower weight.
Aaron Jones - I already mentioned him when talking about Williams above. I actually liked him a bit more than Williams from the cut ups I watched but it was close enough that fit and role has me putting Williams ahead of him. If the Packers had selected Jones but not Williams then I would have Jones as a tier two RB. I just see Williams ahead of him. I also like Jones more than Joe Williams as a prospect, but I see the opportunity for Joe Williams trumping that.
Wayne Gallman - I think Paul Perkins in a better RB than Gallman. Gallman seems like a good utility RB who does a bit of everything well just no specific trait that stands out with him. I don't really expect him to ascend to a full time starter. The opportunity for playing time isn't bad though should Perkins falter.
Jeremy McNichols - A RB who converted from WR who still runs like one at times. While more powerful than Pumphrey I guess this guy really seems to lack that between the tackles mentality though. He really gets rocked by defenders at times. Great receiving option as a RB however and similar player to Charles Sims. I am not sure if Sims or McNichols is better, so I am giving the nod to Sims who has produced at the NFL level already.
Elijah Hood - A power RB who does everything well but limited speed and athleticism. Not sure if he makes the Raiders final roster. Opportunity is there for Hood to possibly have a role if he makes the team and Lynch is out of the picture.
Chris Carson - A powerful RB pointed out to me by Borden. He isn't really my cup of tea stylistcally and I only saw a few specific plays where I thought he looked good. He does not shy from contact though and looks to run over defenders. This isn't a trait I really value, in fact it is somewhat a negative for me, but others really like this quality about RBs and the problem here may be just my perspective. He scored two TD in recent preseason game and he really runs over defenders though which I know some people love.
Matt Breida - Great athlete and very productive college RB until his last season where he disappeared. That really makes me question his abilities as I want to see college players getting better each successive season. To show that they are improving their skill set as players and have upside to get better at the pro level as well. I noted some issues with his vision and spatial awareness which is a huge negative for me when evaluating RB. Vision is perhaps the most important trait for a RB to have, but it is also the hardest trait to accurately evaluate. Breida has some other flaws that I think are correctable, such as his footwork. He is better running north south than laterally which makes him an interesting fit with Shanahans outside zone scheme. The negatives make it seem like he is a bad fit for the scheme, but preseason game one he played ahead of Joe Williams, so maybe I just watched the wrong games, or my criticism is wrong.
DeAngelo Henderson - I only watched him briefly. He reminds me a bit of CJ Anderson. Short fire plug RB with good pad level and change of direction ability. I didn't watch him as much as I spent on the above players to say more than this though. I did like what I saw enough that maybe he should move up this list. I didn't notice any negatives, but that is why they call them highlights.
Those are all the guys I have watched and how I ranked them. Other rookie RB of interest that I haven't gotten around to are
Tarik Cohen
Brian Hill
Elijah McGuire
