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Strategy for Auction this year (1 Viewer)

W

Who am I?

Footballguy
I have been part of a 12 team auction league for about 20 years. This year is the first year I am really struggling with a strategy.

My gut tells me it will be very hard to win a championship this year without either D. Johnson or Bell. My initial thoughts are to grab the first one of these two that is nominated. Most experienced players know you don't want the last guy in a tier....they tend to go for a premium. So I figure the first of those two will be the "better value".

I tier my players and usually try and also grab the "cheapest" WR1 in my top tier. This year, that would be Brown, OBJ, JJ, Green, Evans and Jordy. One of the top tier guys usually goes for a few dollars cheaper than the others. I try and snatch that guy.

So if I follow those guidelines, I would end up with one of the big two RB's and a top tier WR1. I feel like the next large group of RB's are all fairly equal. And I feel like WR is as deep as ever.

8 of the 12 teams make the playoffs. So the other strategy I considered was drafting two stud WR's and grabbing Zeke. .500 teams usually make the playoffs in this league. So losing him for 6 (or less) games wouldn't really kill my chances. I could use the savings I get from buying Zeke to be stronger at the WR position.

Thoughts?

 
Agree with pretty much all of your comments, and like the Zeke strategy considering your playoff setup

 
1. Looking at past history, what would it cost you to get both DJ and Bell? Could you do it for 120 of your 200 cap?

2. WR is very deep this year. If you were to forgo the top of WR crop and target guys in the 25-40 range with your remaining cap- that could help too.

3. How are QBs priced? In my 10 team auction league, the top 2-3 (Rodgers, Brady, Brees) command a premium but then the next group are very cheap.

4. What are your roster sizes?

I'm in a ten team auction league and I always go for as many high end players as possible. But- you also need to consider the depth of the WW and the FA budget. If those are liberal- push the top end players.

 
I think there's already an auction strategy thread in the SP with at least a couple pages, but unless it is some sort of 1-2-2-1 league, I feel very comfortable letting other people overspend on DJ and Bell.

 
I'm going to try to get both DJ and Bell and scrape together what I can at the other positions.  

 
I thought about trying to get both DJ and Bell, but my guess is it would take $140 of $200 or more.  We start 3 WR and a Flex so $60 doesn't leave much to work with.  Assuming $1 on QB, TE, D, K, and 6 bench spots that's is only $50 on 3WR's and a Flex.  You could probably get one decent WR for $20 ish, a couple WR3's with upside for $7-10 each, and hope you can get a decent flex RB or WR for the last $7-10.  

It really depends on our your league drafts on what strategy works best.  If you mock on ESPN they are very top heavy with the top 15-20 or RB's and WR's going for way more than I think they should and the later guys going crazy cheap.  Then if you mock on Draft Dominator from Football guys the top guys are really cheap and the later guys are not a value any more.  On ESPN, I would rather take Bell and DJ and would feel comfortable filling out my team.  On DD I like my teams better if I get 4-5 guys that would be late first or second round players and have junk at the rest of my bench.

Just depends on how the other people in your league value folks.

 
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Getting DJ and Bell sounds amazing but it's so risky.  Basically putting all your eggs into one basket.  Not only that but it would make your draft a little more boring because it takes you out of the bidding on other players pretty early.

 
Ack88 said:
1. Looking at past history, what would it cost you to get both DJ and Bell? Could you do it for 120 of your 200 cap?

2. WR is very deep this year. If you were to forgo the top of WR crop and target guys in the 25-40 range with your remaining cap- that could help too.

3. How are QBs priced? In my 10 team auction league, the top 2-3 (Rodgers, Brady, Brees) command a premium but then the next group are very cheap.

4. What are your roster sizes?

I'm in a ten team auction league and I always go for as many high end players as possible. But- you also need to consider the depth of the WW and the FA budget. If those are liberal- push the top end players.
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Cap is 160 and 16 roster spots. Top RB's tend to fall between 40-50.

Elite QB's go for $20+. I usually grab Eli, Rivers, etc for $5-8.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Getting DJ and Bell sounds amazing but it's so risky.  Basically putting all your eggs into one basket.  Not only that but it would make your draft a little more boring because it takes you out of the bidding on other players pretty early.
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Is two baskets, but I get your point.  It would be boring for a couple hours in the middle.  

But, If you can hit on a couple decent WR's you would have a solid team.  In the mock auctions I have done and taken them both I have been targeting guys WR's like

Hill
Marshall
M Bryant
M Jones
T Williams
 

There are a lot of decent WR with upside late.  I don't like drafting safe as the season is long and what we think we know will likely be wrong and we will all be forced to adjust as the season goes on.

 
The board IMO is pretty shallow at the top and deep in the middle.  So I think you have to try and get one (or two) of the following players

DJ, Bell, McCoy, Gordon, Freeman, Brown, Julio, OBJ, Evans, Jordy, or AJ Green.

I like getting one stud to anchor my team and then work on getting value later.  Cross off Rodgers and Brady.  Why pay their price when I can get a decent QB like Winston for a fraction of the cost?  I will also let someone overpay from Gronk since I will be targeting Jimmy Graham for about half the cost.

I always think that drafting a balanced team that lacks a stud.....is a fourth/fifth place strategy.  The guys that win leagues from my experience are ones that have a team anchored by say DJ and they hit big on a cheap player or on the waiver wire.

 
fightingillini said:
The board IMO is pretty shallow at the top and deep in the middle.  So I think you have to try and get one (or two) of the following players

DJ, Bell, McCoy, Gordon, Freeman, Brown, Julio, OBJ, Evans, Jordy, or AJ Green.

I like getting one stud to anchor my team and then work on getting value later.  Cross off Rodgers and Brady.  Why pay their price when I can get a decent QB like Winston for a fraction of the cost?  I will also let someone overpay from Gronk since I will be targeting Jimmy Graham for about half the cost.

I always think that drafting a balanced team that lacks a stud.....is a fourth/fifth place strategy.  The guys that win leagues from my experience are ones that have a team anchored by say DJ and they hit big on a cheap player or on the waiver wire.
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Exactly why I think you NEED DJ or Bell to win this year.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Is two baskets, but I get your point.  It would be boring for a couple hours in the middle.  

But, If you can hit on a couple decent WR's you would have a solid team.  In the mock auctions I have done and taken them both I have been targeting guys WR's like

Hill
Marshall
M Bryant
M Jones
T Williams
 

There are a lot of decent WR with upside late.  I don't like drafting safe as the season is long and what we think we know will likely be wrong and we will all be forced to adjust as the season goes on.
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And every year, more than a few WR's are either dropped or come out of nowhere that can help throughout the year.

 
Depends what they cost. In a $200 league I would say $55-60 apiece. Try to buy two WRs in the $20-25 range and then skimp on QB and TE by going $4-5 apiece. Fill out your roster with upside pics. 

It's doable.

 
my general strategy is going to be to try and buy really good players for the best price i can, and avoid bad players and spending money on them

 
Pwingles said:
my general strategy is going to be to try and buy really good players for the best price i can, and avoid bad players and spending money on them
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Agreed, the question is who do you think are the good players and are there enough of them that can be had cheap to spend most your money on a few really good ones, or do you need to spend a moderate amount on more players to get the most good ones.  That's why we are having a strategy discussion.  

 
abbottjamesr said:
Agreed, the question is who do you think are the good players and are there enough of them that can be had cheap to spend most your money on a few really good ones, or do you need to spend a moderate amount on more players to get the most good ones.  That's why we are having a strategy discussion.  
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I think that the goal is to get the best players you can for the best price you can, and then repeat that process until the draft is over

 
I've got a very good idea for what almost every player is going to go for in my league so I can pretty much figure out what a team could look like.  If I ended up spending on DJ and Bell I this is what a team could look like for me with my league's settings.

QB - Andy Dalton

RB - David Johnson

RB - LeVeon Bell

WR - Michael Crabtree

WR - Jamison Crowder

WR - Cameron Meredith

TE - Eric Ebron

Flex - Theo Riddick

Bench - Duke Johnson

Bench - Kareem Hunt

Bench - Shane Vereen

Bench - Adam Thielen

Bench - Corey Coleman

Bench - Randall Cobb

 
Who am I? said:
Cap is 160 and 16 roster spots. Top RB's tend to fall between 40-50.

Elite QB's go for $20+. I usually grab Eli, Rivers, etc for $5-8.
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If you could land DJ/Bell for under $100- I would take that combo all day long. There is simply no way other teams can make up the difference unless you completely whiff on WR.

There is a ton of depth at WR- there are plenty of $5-$8 guys that will be reasonable. Couple that with your strategy of getting a decent QB for under $10 and I think you have a great plan.

Put it this way- while you have a high injury risk team- I would likely view your squad as the preseason favorite.

Just my 2 cents. Best of luck.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I've got a very good idea for what almost every player is going to go for in my league so I can pretty much figure out what a team could look like.  If I ended up spending on DJ and Bell I this is what a team could look like for me with my league's settings.

QB - Andy Dalton

RB - David Johnson

RB - LeVeon Bell

WR - Michael Crabtree

WR - Jamison Crowder

WR - Cameron Meredith

TE - Eric Ebron

Flex - Theo Riddick

Bench - Duke Johnson

Bench - Kareem Hunt

Bench - Shane Vereen

Bench - Adam Thielen

Bench - Corey Coleman

Bench - Randall Cobb
Click to expand...
If you can procure this squad- I like your chances.

 
Ack88 said:
If you could land DJ/Bell for under $100- I would take that combo all day long. There is simply no way other teams can make up the difference unless you completely whiff on WR.

There is a ton of depth at WR- there are plenty of $5-$8 guys that will be reasonable. Couple that with your strategy of getting a decent QB for under $10 and I think you have a great plan.

Put it this way- while you have a high injury risk team- I would likely view your squad as the preseason favorite.

Just my 2 cents. Best of luck.
Click to expand...
That's the key point right there.  That's a lot of team capital in just two players who are at a high risk position.

 
Pwingles said:
my general strategy is going to be to try and buy really good players for the best price i can, and avoid bad players and spending money on them
Click to expand...
My strategy, as well. And the way I do this is by looking at ADPs and AAVs and seeing where the value is. I construct possible teams around those players and give myself alternate players if those guys get bid up for some reason. I tend to end up with no 1st round players on my teams, but by the end of the year I usually have a couple guys that perform like 1st rounders or, if not, at least 4-5 guys that perform like 2nd rounders. You don't need big names to win. You just need to hit on the players you buy.

 
Who am I? said:
In theory, yes. But you need star players to win it all. I don't auction for 2nd place.
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Week 1 star players cost too much. I prefer to get my week 16 star players at a discount while everyone else is dropping 30% of their budget on the big names.

 
FF Ninja said:
Week 1 star players cost too much. I prefer to get my week 16 star players at a discount while everyone else is dropping 30% of their budget on the big names.
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I agree with your premise in 14 and 16 team leagues where the WW is shallow.

In 10 and 12 team leagues, I value star players more as you can more easily plug gaps on the WW

 
Ack88 said:
I agree with your premise in 14 and 16 team leagues where the WW is shallow.

In 10 and 12 team leagues, I value star players more as you can more easily plug gaps on the WW
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I haven't played a 10 team league in a long time, but I agree with that take. In my 12 team leagues, they all have pretty deep starting spots. If I was in a strict 1-3-2-1 league with no flexes, then yeah, you gotta go heavier, but if you can start 9-10 skill players, best to spread it out. But it seems like nobody ever adjusts for that and everybody just goes study crazy.

 
FF Ninja said:
Week 1 star players cost too much. I prefer to get my week 16 star players at a discount while everyone else is dropping 30% of their budget on the big names.
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As I said initially, I tend to grab a stud RB and a stud WR and then follow what you're saying.

But this talk of grabbing both DJ and Bell has me very interested. It is so far outside the box, it may actually be the shark move. Depth at WR and QB is at an all time high. You can get good players at both positions for good value.

 
Who am I? said:
As I said initially, I tend to grab a stud RB and a stud WR and then follow what you're saying.

But this talk of grabbing both DJ and Bell has me very interested. It is so far outside the box, it may actually be the shark move. Depth at WR and QB is at an all time high. You can get good players at both positions for good value.
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I feel like leagues are adjusting to that extra depth by adding extra flex positions, so I have a hard time believing that dropping 60%+ of your budget on 2 players can actually be a shark move. When was the last time the top 2 players both finished in the top 5? I really don't know the answer to that, but it seems unlikely given the annual churn.

 
FF Ninja said:
I feel like leagues are adjusting to that extra depth by adding extra flex positions, so I have a hard time believing that dropping 60%+ of your budget on 2 players can actually be a shark move. When was the last time the top 2 players both finished in the top 5? I really don't know the answer to that, but it seems unlikely given the annual churn.
Click to expand...
Fair point.

 
Please make sure the discussion here stays about general auction strategy and not advice for your specific team and it can stay here. When it gets to "what do I do in my league", that's more what we do in the Assistant Coach forum. Which is great too. Just different than here. Thanks. 

 
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Hawkeye21 said:
I've got a very good idea for what almost every player is going to go for in my league so I can pretty much figure out what a team could look like.  If I ended up spending on DJ and Bell I this is what a team could look like for me with my league's settings.

QB - Andy Dalton

RB - David Johnson

RB - LeVeon Bell

WR - Michael Crabtree

WR - Jamison Crowder

WR - Cameron Meredith

TE - Eric Ebron

Flex - Theo Riddick

Bench - Duke Johnson

Bench - Kareem Hunt

Bench - Shane Vereen

Bench - Adam Thielen

Bench - Corey Coleman

Bench - Randall Cobb
Click to expand...
I would bet money on that team to win the league.  

 
Raback said:
I would bet money on that team to win the league.  
Click to expand...
I would not. Most of your budget in to two rb is asking for trouble given the increased only risk. I think grabbing one and getting Zeke"cheap" is the better way to go for the op

 
iamkoza said:
I would not. Most of your budget in to two rb is asking for trouble given the increased only risk. I think grabbing one and getting Zeke"cheap" is the better way to go for the op
Click to expand...
Has anyone actually determined what Zeke's value is in auction yet?  What type of discount are we talking, 20%?

 
bostonfred said:
Who would you consider a week 16 star player? 
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The point I was making with that was that the same roster can carry a drastically different perception in week 1 vs. week 16. My "no superstar" lineups will not get much respect in week 1, but Keenan Allen is an example of a guy that I think will be seen as a star by week 16.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I've got a very good idea for what almost every player is going to go for in my league so I can pretty much figure out what a team could look like.  If I ended up spending on DJ and Bell I this is what a team could look like for me with my league's settings.

QB - Andy Dalton

RB - David Johnson

RB - LeVeon Bell

WR - Michael Crabtree

WR - Jamison Crowder

WR - Cameron Meredith

TE - Eric Ebron

Flex - Theo Riddick

Bench - Duke Johnson

Bench - Kareem Hunt

Bench - Shane Vereen

Bench - Adam Thielen

Bench - Corey Coleman

Bench - Randall Cobb
Click to expand...
I try to do the same thing.  Mock auction my team based on historical trends from my league, how many RBs/WRs, etc are being kept. 

Since I have both DJ & Bell as 2 of my 3 keepers for very cheap salaries, I've been experimenting with going as stud-heavy as possible, in order to get an idea what kind of team I could assemble.  This is what I came up with, but I'm concerned about the lack of depth.

QB: Dalton-1.7% of cap

RB1: Johnson-7.7% of cap

RB2: Bell-10% of cap

WR1: M Thomas-6.3% of cap ***3rd keeper***

WR2: K Benjamin-6.7% of cap

Flex: McCoy- 36.7% of cap (he will be the highest ranked RB who can't be kept; he might go higher than this b/c of scarcity, but this is the historical norm for top RBs & the max I'd pay)

TE: Gronk-18.3% of cap (highest salary for TE ever in this league; paid to Gronk last year.  I think it will be less b/c of his down year last year, but I calculated on the high end)

PK: someone at minimum salary (.33%)

D/ST: same as PK

Bench

J. Conner-1.7% (hopefully higher than he'll go, but with lack of bench depth, handcuffs are important for my RBs, IMO)

J Williams (Buff)-1.7% (again, hopefully higher than he'll go, but same reasoning as Conner)

C Johnson-minimum salary (.33%-no buzz & unlike Bell/McCoy, DJ's backup doesn't have a history of being so valuable)

J White-1.7%

D Parker-3.7%

R Cobb-1%

A Smith, A Boldin, Jaron Brown, J Cook-minimum salary

Again, the lack of depth concerns me.  Usually, I try to leave my auction with 2 studs, a few 2nd/3rd tier players, then some solid depth across the roster.  This roster would be virtually all starter.  I don't think I'd feel particularly comfortable starting any of my bench players for more than bye week fill-ins. 

 
FF Ninja said:
The point I was making with that was that the same roster can carry a drastically different perception in week 1 vs. week 16. My "no superstar" lineups will not get much respect in week 1, but Keenan Allen is an example of a guy that I think will be seen as a star by week 16.
Click to expand...
I see Allen as more valuable week 1 than 16 because of the injury history, but it sounds like you're mostly saying you like the guys who are good but aren't "hot" right now.  Maybe an example would be dez who has an absolutely brutal run of defenses early.

 
bostonfred said:
I see Allen as more valuable week 1 than 16 because of the injury history, but it sounds like you're mostly saying you like the guys who are good but aren't "hot" right now.  Maybe an example would be dez who has an absolutely brutal run of defenses early.
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I was just saying in the Allen thread that a spleen and ACL aren't predictable injuries, so no, I don't think he's any more likely to miss week 16 than anyone else. But what I'm saying is that I like to draft 2018's 1st and 2nd rounders who are currently not 1st and 2nd rounders in 2017  :D   Allen is an example of a guy that I think will be a consensus top 24 pick next year unless he get another lacerated spleen. I consider him a near lock, but there are a lot of mid-priced guys that I think have maybe a 50/50 shot to put up huge numbers. I'd rather have 2 of those guys than a guy with a 75% chance plus a guy with a 2% chance (the ol' studs & duds strategy, which anyone who goes Bell + DJ will be doing). Even if only one of them hits it big, the other one is usually at least an injury/bye week filler type.

 
FF Ninja said:
I was just saying in the Allen thread that a spleen and ACL aren't predictable injuries, so no, I don't think he's any more likely to miss week 16 than anyone else. But what I'm saying is that I like to draft 2018's 1st and 2nd rounders who are currently not 1st and 2nd rounders in 2017  :D   Allen is an example of a guy that I think will be a consensus top 24 pick next year unless he get another lacerated spleen. I consider him a near lock, but there are a lot of mid-priced guys that I think have maybe a 50/50 shot to put up huge numbers. I'd rather have 2 of those guys than a guy with a 75% chance plus a guy with a 2% chance (the ol' studs & duds strategy, which anyone who goes Bell + DJ will be doing). Even if only one of them hits it big, the other one is usually at least an injury/bye week filler type.
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I have typically done this strategy for multiple years now.  However..........I can't ignore the fact that the NFL's trend of RBBC is making fantasy relevant RBs scarce.  Looking at last year's points, there is a huge ppg drop off for RB.  In my 12 team league #1RB (21.6 ppg); #12 (11.4 ppg), #24 (8.8 ppg).  So 10 ppg drop off and then some stability for a RB2.

Contrast that with WRs.  #1 (13.9 ppg), #12 (10.0) #24 (8.8 ppg). Only a 4 ppg and then some stability.  I still believe in the tier strategy and grabbing value when it shows up, but the ppg drop off from DJ, Bell, and Zeke (pre-suspension) is too significant to ignore.

I will be deviating from my normal strategy this year and paying the premium for either DJ or Bell.  I know the odds of the top 5 RB ending as the top 5 are slim, but barring injury, these two are as close a lock as I can think.

 
chad in Indy said:
I have typically done this strategy for multiple years now.  However..........I can't ignore the fact that the NFL's trend of RBBC is making fantasy relevant RBs scarce.  Looking at last year's points, there is a huge ppg drop off for RB.  In my 12 team league #1RB (21.6 ppg); #12 (11.4 ppg), #24 (8.8 ppg).  So 10 ppg drop off and then some stability for a RB2.

Contrast that with WRs.  #1 (13.9 ppg), #12 (10.0) #24 (8.8 ppg). Only a 4 ppg and then some stability.  I still believe in the tier strategy and grabbing value when it shows up, but the ppg drop off from DJ, Bell, and Zeke (pre-suspension) is too significant to ignore.

I will be deviating from my normal strategy this year and paying the premium for either DJ or Bell.  I know the odds of the top 5 RB ending as the top 5 are slim, but barring injury, these two are as close a lock as I can think.
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These drop offs/tiers are fun to look at but they only really help you if current ADP or AAV = end of year finish. I'm going to get a top 12 RB, maybe two, but I won't be paying top 12 prices for them. I get why people are paying for Bell or DJ, but I'm not going to hinge my season on one player. Studs and duds is a popular game plan because it's easy. If you avoid total busts like Hopkins AND avoid injuries, you're good to go. I feel like I'm in a position where I don't have to take those risks. My teams can survive 2-3 injuries and thrive during bye weeks.

 
FF Ninja said:
 I'm going to get a top 12 RB, maybe two, but I won't be paying top 12 prices for them. 
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How can you be so sure of that?  I ask because after about 12-14 RBs, it gets really dicey.  I think the top 12 RBs are all going to cost some sort of premium....with DJ and Bell having the biggest premium, obviously.

 
fightingillini said:
How can you be so sure of that?  I ask because after about 12-14 RBs, it gets really dicey.  I think the top 12 RBs are all going to cost some sort of premium....with DJ and Bell having the biggest premium, obviously.
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Oh, I can't actually be sure. But I'm pretty sure I'll find one and half of the top 12 guys will bust. I mean, I like the odds of Crowell and Martin putting up top 12 ppg numbers. I think Abdullah has an outside shot at surprising some people. If you throw 5-6 darts (and you're good at darts), you'll hit a couple times... no need to pay extra to stand closer!

 
FF Ninja said:
Oh, I can't actually be sure. But I'm pretty sure I'll find one and half of the top 12 guys will bust. I mean, I like the odds of Crowell and Martin putting up top 12 ppg numbers. I think Abdullah has an outside shot at surprising some people. If you throw 5-6 darts (and you're good at darts), you'll hit a couple times... no need to pay extra to stand closer!
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I would rather take my chances on a guaranteed stud (barring injury) then guess on a few hit or miss prospects.

 
Payne said:
I would rather take my chances on a guaranteed stud (barring injury) then guess on a few hit or miss prospects.
Click to expand...
As would most people. I'd rather gamble on my ability to find cheaper talent than gamble on the health of 1-2 studs. 

 
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