As I've been prepping for my draft, I've been trying to identify my blind spots -- things I assume to be true without really examining my reasoning for thinking that. One that I've started noticing -- not just with myself, but also from other fantasy analysts -- is that the theory of drafting your QB late tends to come with the built-in assumption that there's not a lot of differentiation among that middle tier of QBs. While I do think it's smart to wait on QB, and while I do think the *downside* of getting that pick wrong is fairly low (you can just fall back on streaming), there is still a huge upside in getting it right. People who got Matt Ryan last year were the fantasy equivalent of the 2012-13 Seahawks, with a cheap QB that allowed them to fill out the rest of their roster with big-name studs. Similar thing with Carr. On the other hand, if you got Dalton late he probably screwed you (unless you gave up on him after a few weeks and started streaming).
With that in mind, I'm trying to really think through which of the late-round QBs I like, and which I'm wary of.
Here's my current groupings:
All-in (relative to ADP)
With that in mind, I'm trying to really think through which of the late-round QBs I like, and which I'm wary of.
Here's my current groupings:
All-in (relative to ADP)
- Dalton -- huge bounce-back candidate, especially his TD rate
- Rivers -- INTs should drop, but will still probably remain too high. But otherwise, he's got a fairly consistent track record of 4,500/30. He's basically a rich-man's Eli
- Palmer -- another bounce-back candidate, plus easy early schedule
- Wentz -- like his chances at a second-year leap
- Luck -- OK, not really a late-round QB, but if injuries cause him to fall far enough, I'd gladly grab him and stream until he's healthy
- Super late-round sleepers (Kizer/Hoyer) -- don't really want them, but if everyone else is gone I'd be OK taking a flier on either as my QB2.
- Carr -- may be this year's Bortles
- Taylor -- has been a fantastic value for the past two years, but at this point I don't think you can count on his job secuurity
- Prescott -- huge regression candidate, especially with his INT rate
- Bradford -- I actually think he could continue to improve. But he still won't be a reliable starter, plus he's always a huge injury risk
- Veteran has beens (Flacco/Eli/Cutler/Smith) -- THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. And that's not going to be very good
- Jameis/Mariota -- I like both but worry the hype has gone too far and will push their ADPs out of reach. But if I'm wrong and they fall to me, I'd have no problem taking them
- Stafford -- I like him, and if anyone's going to be this year's Matt Ryan, he's the prime candidate. If I end up with him, it wouldn't be the worst thing. But I worry he might be in that No Man's Land of not being a reliable plug and play starter, but being too good to drop if I fall back on streaming
- Cousins -- I doubted him last year and he proved me wrong. He may just be a guy who can put up consistent numbers. But that whole situation in DC scares me, with Cousins halfway out the door.